Predicting the future of 16 year olds is hard and prone to error. I noticed you only listed the successful contracts from that year and not the 50 other high priced busts.
You can't measure success in scouting and development on an individual player basis, just like you wouldn't measure success or failure of an investment portfolio based on the movement of one stock in the portfolio. They need to measure their gain in aggregate and in relation to other baseball teams. Are they generating more, less or the same talent as other teams?