Richie the Rally Goat

For me, the sabremetrics enhances my love of the game. I would love a simulcast of Twins games with an overlay on the live game, including spray charts, statistical probabilities and commentators who understood and embraced their meaning. I get that most people don’t want a statistics lesson, but I do. I love it (and my job where I do a ton of stats analysis, application, reporting and visualization). I really believe that if fans understood better how the analysis frames the strategy and drives the responses in execution, fandom would increase of the game. Statics have been a part of the game since baseball cards were first printed, became standardized in the 60s, and have advanced through the age of computers. Most fans don’t want a stats lesson while watching a game, but teaching the “why” in a game context can bring us closer to our history as well as future. that being said, agreed with Brock and bean, some of the decisions that are driven by the analysis reduces the fan experience of the game. The reduction of batted balls has significantly reduced the watchability of the game, especially in person. It is no fun watching all those Ks in a 4.5 hour game. Rules do need to be put in place to increase the amount of contact, as well as speed the game up.

Agreed with Squirrel, SS is well covered as well as infield generally. I can also see Arraez get packaged for pitching, also Urshela, probably not Martin/Lewis as they are the future. Is there an upgrade at 4th outfield over Gordon coming? Someone who can spell Buxton a bit more capably?

It’s amazing what one measly 3 year deal does to my outlook on the plan and season

Kind of, as things went on he caught less and less, reducing his flexibility and as an increasingly corner fielder needed to hit better to provide value. that’s where I’m at with Sanchez too. If he’s not catching he needs to hit better.

ME TOO!

Counting on Donaldson and Garver to carry the hitters?

I think 65-70 is about where they’ll land if the roster doesn’t change. there’s 1 MLB starting pitcher, 2 guys who show a lot of promise but aren’t stretched out to give you enough innings and then absolutely no one you can trust every 5th game. Either August/September should see 4 Andrew Albers’ in the rotation or all season we have 3 Andrew Albers’ piggy backed. 700 innings pitched by quad A pitchers is not a recipe for success. As you said, a couple moves could swing the team 10+ wins and good outcomes from some current question marks like Ryan and Ober, Jax and Thorpe could swing it another 5 into the 80-85 which could compete for a post season birth

I like your STORY but don’t buy it i think Arraez will keep Martin’s seat warm at 3B until he forces the issue or Arraez might get flipped in a package for pitching

Right now Urshela is the starting SS, no?

He had a shoulder injury and was placed on the 60 day 8/18

In the current roster Jax pitched the second most innings (120ish including minors) in ‘21 behind Gray’s 135. They need innings desperately. I would be shocked if Jax wasn’t piggy backed on Ryan or Ober or whoever they slot in 5th.

I thought you were listening in on my performance review, until I read the fine print

This is where I’m at too. If they HAD to get out from under Donaldson, how quick will they be to replace that contract?

Urshela has 2 years of control and this does not take the Yankees out of the SS market. agreed on your implication that Sanchez’s liability behind the plate is not much of an impact, he might catch once or twice a week. agreed on your outlook of the infield if they sign Story what if they don’t? How do you feel about: Kiriloff, Polanco, Urshela, Martin?

Feels like a salary dump to me too

Not everyone though Donaldson’s salary needed to be offloaded. im not a fan of this move at all! unless they sign Story

Yeah, this is where I’m at too. Very confused. my best guess is their budget is much lower than we anticipated and the FO is trying to compete without spending any money

Great work Lucas! Well written and balanced.

Analytics meant something different then. They won with the analytics of the day and then got conservative because they didn’t understand their competitive advantage and it was overtaken by newer and more robust techniques of data collection and analysis. as for whether this is the “right CBA”… it gets us MLB baseball again, so… YUP it’s the right one for now!

Jeffers and Rortvedt<Rooker, Larnach or any free agent left fielder. Kiriloff, Garver and Sano are in the lineup in all of these scenarios, so no the Op would not juice the lineup, quite the opposite.

Garver’s .372 wOBA in 2021 would have ranked him the number 8 first baseman. He can clearly hit well enough to be an asset away from C, but as @roger so astutely pointed out, this roster is bloated with corner hitters who can’t field. Garver fields C quite competently, why would you hurt two positions for a 31 year old? He’s no spring chicken and comparing him to Mauer isn’t a fair comp at all. My plan would be to play Garver at C as much as his body can handle. Rest him, but get him behind the dish 4 days a week or more if he holds up.

I just returned from a 10 day trip. Agree entirely w/ the OP and a couple points of interest to add On Sanibel, eat at the Island Cow, the patio has iguanas and games, and the largest menu I can recall. On Captiva, eat at the Mucky Duck, it’s right on the beach, has a great pub-style menu, and the beach chair bar at Sunset is an experience to be had. Also, Orlando (and the theme parks), Cape Canaveral (Kennedy Space Center) and St Augustine (48 states’ oldest city and pirate fort/museum) are drivable and quite fun!

I agree w/ the OP on who the villain is, but the author’s relative youth skews his perspective a bit. There has been unprecedented stability and peace between the League and the PA over the last 25 years. Since the PA’s inception until 1994/95 there was a work stoppage every 3-4 years. NHL, NBA and NFL have all had work stoppages since the last MLB stoppage. A work stoppage was an eventuality. So no, MLB fan engagement is not as low as it’s ever been. Not by a long shot. If there are games played with PA players in ‘22 it won’t sink lower than ‘95. I doubt the players have the fortitude to forfeit the season to sink it lower than ‘94/95. The owners do have the fortitude and Manfred hates baseball, so they’ll scrub the season to get their way.