bird

This is not in the vicinity of today's reality.

http://www.soxon35th.com/how-close-is-the-2020-american-league-central-race/

And the significant part of that win was refusing to commit to a long-term contract and upgrading the production at that position.

I'm gonna wait to read this until February.

Of the three, I'm somehow most confident in Buxton and least confident in Berrios, but not queasy about any of them.

No, they should just stop with this move. Do nothing some more.

Concur.

No I don't. I did read and understand Tom's post. Sarcasm aside, I think Tom is wondering the same thing all of us are, which is whether we can count on the system to produce another Berrios or better anytime soon, given the the results we got from the five guys he mentioned. That's a legitimate question. The theme of the thread relates to how teams find and Ace. Romero, despite the 50FV, was not a candidate for that label, and as you point out Gonsalves wasn't either, right? And as I pointed out, our three top pitching prospects are all thought to have better frontline starter potential than any of those five, and all three have better starter profiles than Jay or Romero. We know it's a lot about having the skill to develop pitching talent, but it's also a numbers game. I think we're seeing a few small, early hints that this FO gets that and is making some progress. The Twins have 15 pitching prospects. plus Dobnak, who are 40FV guys or better. Boston has 7 of them. Other teams are stealing coaches from the Twins, not Boston. Only one of the prospects FG mentions came out of the 2019 draft, and they selected almost 20 college pitchers. That indicates to me a focus and a determination. And I'm not mentioning any of the young IFA arms, guys FG doesn't know about yet. I feel like the chances of us seeing another Berrios type or two out of this group of more than 40 arms is pretty good, but obviously not in time for the 2019 season.

I call strawman.

So yeah, it's great that those people aren't around here. Can you think of a single one of our pals here who has believed they should leave more than one rotation spot open to start the season? And most of us are even a bit queasy about that. So you're singing to the choir about 2020. But probably not when it comes to 2021. Duran, Balazovic, and Graterol (50 FV) top FG's rankings, followed by Thorpe, Canterino (45FV), and then Sands, Colina, Enlow, and Rijo (40FV), with Dobnak graduated. So, all ten of these prospects are ranked ahead of players who have not been underwhelming in their debuts, namely Smeltzer, Stashak, and Alcala, who get 40FV as well. Moran, Winder, Valimont, and Ober also get 40FV values. It's a numbers game. And yeah, we'd be fortunate if even a single one of these 17 pitchers became an Ace for even one season.

I'm not sure this is correct. Balazovic, Graterol and Duran all have 50FV values in FanGraphs this off-season, all now at AA or higher. I don't believe, after year one draft hype when EVERY pitcher has top of the rotation ceilings, that Gonsalves, Stewart, Mejia, Jay. or even Romero was registering at 40 or maybe 45FV, and in FG, that's a pretty big difference.

No, Tom, not a single one of those prospects was really regarded by anyone (other than local dreamerfans) was thought to have a #1 ceiling. Using just one expert, Keith Law, and maybe imperfect recollection, Romero and Jay were though to be relievers or at best #3, Gonsalves, Stewart and Mejia mid rotation types.

Hosken, I'm sure you see the dilemna. The "do whatever it takes" argument rejects or at least dismisses the validity and right of ownership to consider prudence, to exercise their right to setting a clearing price. And that's okay. It just means that having a conversation about it is a non-starter. This is especially true because we almost never know what the clearing price is, for the player or the bidder. What was Falvey willing to bid? Whatever it takes? What does that even mean? What number, if any number, would have changed Wheeler's mind? Is it possible he and his wife shrugged, kissed each other good night, and had a nice dream knowing that $118,000,000.00 was enough? We can't just presume that some number would have worked, or that the timing of an offer would influence the player's decision. It's an auction process, and the auctioneer rarely starts telling bidders to put down their cards just because an early bid was sweet. Just the opposite probably happens, where Boras is repeating "5/100 going once" over and over until he gets the 5/118. Who knows, right? There are plenty of trade ideas offered every day. Those are an easier conversation. I mean, When someone suggests we trade Royce Lewis for Gore, everything is pretty much "knowable". Like that it ain't gonna happen.

I think this is a continuous aspiration. Unfortunately, clubs don't wake up and take a stupid pill all that often. The Rays did, and we took Odorizzi from them. The Pirates did, and Houston stepped in and stole Cole, not giving up any top 5 prospects. I think these trades have been in short supply. That said, my theory is we're embarking on a prolonged cycle where financial inflexibility will reign as the new market inefficiency. Examples perhaps: Greinke, David Price, Cole and Rendon being allowed to hit FA. Even though savvy deals are hard to find, you don't need a slew of them when you've already made a couple (Odorizzi and Pineda). As a Twins lifer (1961), I guess I've learned to be patient (not accepting), so when the team drafted and signed 20 college pitchers in last year's draft, that signaled to me that the long range strategy is to achieve a superior capacity for developing pitchers. I'm afraid we'll just have to wait for an Ace to emerge. We'll see.

If they don't acquire one more "impact pitcher" (using THEIR explanation and definition, not any of OURS), then like you, I'd appreciate it if, God forbid, the beat writers asked the tough questions. I think we forget that, coming off a 78 win season, we heard a lot of complaints, all the way up and through spring training, that they hadn't done enough, hadn't done the right things. Frankly, I was hoping for one more good reliever and was concerned that they were one starter short, but then the team wins 101. They went from hardly a player above replacement to a lineup of no one below replacement. And yet I recall complaints about Schoop and Cron. Cheap owner stuff. I mean, we were right that they were short a couple of pitchers there at the end (Dyson and Pineda would have been nice), but man alive, some people are whining that they should have foreseen that the window was more open. I cut them a bit more slack, in large part because while they weren't perfect by any means, the progress was phenomenal and the momentum is in place. I don't know how they're going to fill the few remaining holes. But I'm optimistic they will, with the exception perhaps of going light on relievers once again to start the season.

But aren't you presuming things here? What is a "Falvey fan" BTW? At the time you would have put that unwanted 5/125 out there, Wheeler and family had a 5/118 in the bag from a team 25 minutes from family, on their preferred coast, and had, according to non-Doogie sources, told Falvey that as much as they appreciated his willingness to offer more than the 5/100 that reportedly was on the table, he shouldn't bother. I suppose one could (and many will, often) argue that he could have and should have thrown an offer out there anyway, one so stupid that it "couldn't be turned down" according to the arguer's own theory of that unknown. If that's the argument, great. People are entitled to that opinion. However, they are not entitled to having Falvey make such an offer. I happen to respect and appreciate the club's right to exercise what it considers good business judgment, hard as it is to deal with yet another disappointment with more to come most likely. We're seeing a ton of angst about players who were #2 starters and are just as likely to be worse than that in 2020 rather than better. I have a hunch that there's a Plan B to Wheeler, MadBum, Ryu, and Keuchel, and the reason we're hearing the Twins listed as one of the half dozen teams in the hunt is because they actually ARE. They're not going to take a shot if the prey is out of their range however. Plan B here we come. It'll be interesting.

The two are close. Fangraphs gives Lewis the edge by about one slot in the rankings. So you're absolutely right, you have no idea if they made a mistake or not.

I'll repeat: solve the rotation problem as best you can, through FA or trades. It won't be an Ace. There were two of them, and that wasn't happening. And please don't dismiss the reports that, according to sources other than the Twins, Falvey communicated they were ready to go further with their offer and were told not to bother, that #2 starter Wheeler wasn't leaving the east coast. That said, they perhaps should have avoided this pickle in the first place, something you've suggested a billion times.

Wheeler was not viewed as an Ace until 18 teams chased him in FA, but he WAS a 1st round guy. Pineda WAS an impact guy. So was Odorizzi. Neither guy was better than Cole, Scherzer, Strasburg, Verlander. All drafted 1/1 I believe, none fitting this club's budget or that pitcher's interests. The comlaints about that are tiring and hint at myopia. Perez was signed as a #5 starter. A really good decision at the time. As I made clear in my comment, I don't see evidence that supports the fairly common criticism of the Twins that OTHER clubs routinely convert later draft picks into one of those Aces. I pointed to the one exception I can find in the last decade of perhaps doing it more than once, or coming close, and that's Cleveland with Kluber, and then Clevinger and Bieber. I didn't express faith, as I'm not qualified to really have a strong conviction. I expressed hope, and based it on specific points, being Falvey's involvement with Cleveland, and the things that have been reported and in evidence regarding the changes and pretty promising minor league performances from those prospects. As I described, even the 1st round history on those who were "no-brainers" has been abysmal. My intention was to shed light on the fact that there has been no simple answer to the question of how you find that elusive Ace, so I disagree with the simplistic notion that all you have to do is be smart enough to draft an Ace. It's really, really important to not be dismissive of the facts brought forward by Major League Ready. Teams draft, expecting an Ace. Teams sign FA's expecting an Ace. Look at the record. Fans with almost every franchise are saying exactly the same things Mike is saying. I think the Ace worshipping is way overdone, for a number of reasons. One, the Hamptons often become Martin Perez wannabes. Or Lester becomes Lester. Second, injuries. Third, legitimate requirements in MOST clubs' situation to not become one of the clubs enjoying "financial inflexibility", the new market inefficiency. Few around here, or on the CWS or a dozen other blogs, disagrees that Wheeler and MadBum would be good decisions. What drives me nuts is how people make it sound like Falvey is related to the greeter at Walmart and gets in before the place opens and grabs Wheeler off a sales table. Go get what you can, Mr. Falvey. Be good and get lucky.

Trade or sign who they can, Mike. It won't be an Ace. This FO have had one shot at selecting a pitcher who the pros thought might be an Ace. They chose to go with Royce Lewis instead of Hunter Greene and Gore. Do you want to go on record that they screwed that one up? I love reminding you that you favored Gausman over Buxton and were pretty clear about that. Again, you can't keep pinning past decisions on this new organization. Let that go.

On the subject of where do Aces come from, let's first think about how many active pitchers you can name who: 1) used to be Aces or near-Aces but ain't anymore: Hamels, Wainwright, Price, MadBum, Cueto, Gio Gonzalez, Jose Fernandez?... point being to acknowledge performance volatility and shelf life; 2) might become Aces: Giolito, Kopech, Buehler, Nola, Soroka, Whitley, Puk, Bieber, Clevinger? ... point being it's not a long list; 3) are Aces now or have been for a season at least, and might be again: Greinke, Verlander, Cole, Kershaw, Scherzer, Sonny Gray, deGrom, Kluber, Strasburg?...point being again, it's not a long list So, if you combine the current Aces and aspiring ones, you basically have one for every other team. Now, if you peek back at the last decade of 1st round draft picks, you'll count about 14 guys who all the pundits described as having that elusive Ace ceiling. Thats 1.5 guys per draft. Let's see how that group is faring: yes, a decade ago, Gerrit Cole came along. Sweet. Wanna count Bauer in there as an Ace? Cool. Wanna count Mize, Hunter Greene, Gore, Kopech, and Ian Anderson as sure bets? Well, okay, but...now you need to sort through all the OTHER guys who were gonna be Aces: Bundy, Kyle Zimmer, Gausman, Jon Gray, Appel, Rodon, Kolek, Aiken. I know I'm missing names of a few current Aces. But not many! And the thing is, almost EVERY ONE of the names above was a first round selection in the draft. Repeat: almost every one of them. People say, well, other teams are so much better at developing Aces from later round selections. My question is, exactly who are these teams, and exactly who are these developed Aces from deep in the bowels of the draft? Aha! You know who has by far the best recent track record in that regard? Kluber, Clevinger, and Bieber were all 4th round picks. That's Falvey's old team. I'm not going to opine that Falvey is bringing some of that magic dust to the Twins organization and that we should EXPECT results like that soon, but OTOH, as Parker Hageman and others are pointing out, there is enough of a revolution happening in the area of pitching development to at least not be despairing. Let's hope they have something brewing with guys like Balazovic, Ober, Colima, Dobnak, Enlow, Sands... And yes, this doesn't solve the rotation problem in 2020. And pointing out how hard it is to find true Aces is not excuse-making.

Exactly the kind of trade I want this FO to make when it develops a surplus on the major league roster. And Cave is redundant.

You cherrypicker you.

How pessimistic of you. Just wait til Wes works his magic.

No orange lips