bird

I just glanced at FanGraphs and see Lewis ranked at #23, so they clearly still like him a lot. Gore looks like he's going to be terrific too. But I would imagine Falvey's amateur scouts feel pretty good that their collective recommendation that the FO pass on Hunter Greene, Brendan McKay (both though by a majority of experts to be a better choice than Lewis) looks sound. Kyle Wright appears to be a solid major leagur player, but the "right" #5 overall selection. And given the higher injury risk associated with pitchers, I wonder if the Twins would trade Lewis for Gore straight up. Probably, but not without much consideration. BTW, FG has both Greene and McKay ranked just outside of its top 100.

This is what I think I'm seeing: the CWS has more talented starters than we do. They have an everyday lineup that, talent-wise, is our equal or better, with the exception of perhaps a slight edge to the Twins defensively. The CWS bullpen depth is comparable. But the REAL advantage they have is that they're performing, game in and game out, at a very high level, and with a palpable energy. They're simply the better team, IMO. Exactly what I feared coming into the season.

That was easily the most painful game to watch for me in two years. My main issue with this lineup has been the paucity of "tough out" guys, which is why Arraez was such a breath of fresh air last year. I hope Falvey has a longer-term goal of building an everyday lineup that has smart OBP guys interspersed. The failure of one batter after another to even make contact in RISP situations drives me nuts. It's OK for Cruz to be Cruz, just give me two more Arraez types in the lineup each night instead of the Caves and the Rosarios one after another. Another reason this was a hard game to see given away: if I was given the decision and was offered one win in the next three games to walk away, I'd take it, no hesitation at all. Hope I'm wrong of course.

Not sure which one is the bigger hot dog...

Lots of really astute observations here. My own theory is that, going forward, they are going to need to continue to be aggressive traders of redundant major league talent for the promising prospects from other systems. They no longer can claim any sort of substantial superiority when it comes to scouting and talent evaluation, although they may still have better relationships and connections in the DR and may still have a work culture that drives them to find a Dobnak and resurrect a Thielbar. Any advantage in the area of cutting edge development technology, innovation and expertise is likely somewhat short-lived or narrowed. And MLB success quickly allows others to catch up because of favorable draft order and larger bonus pools. In my view, that leaves two primary ways to create separation. The best way, IMO, is to take advantage of other team's perceived immediate needs for MLB talent, where prospects offer a considerable future value discount compared to a current value for your expendable player. The second way is related, which is to keep enough dry powder ("financial flexibility") to take advantage of FA talent opportunities and cost squeezes. I agree with others that, today, we're behind our ALC rivals when it comes to top notch pitching talent. If I were the GM at the 2020 trade deadline, I would have solicited conversations about Rosario, May, Clippard, Romo, and Cave, and taken a prospect deal IF an overpay was available for any of them. I'd be an aggressive seller of MLB surplus 7/24/365. In short, the three pillars should all be significantly above average and then exploited to further improve things: MLB talent, prospect talent, and available cash. I think the Twins are in pretty good shape in all regards, with the talent pipeline at the lower end of the preferred range for my liking.

Personally, I'd like to see them go with a six man rotation and let them cruise through for now. What's the risk in doing that? Over the winter, I was hoping for two in the Taillon/Wood/Bundy category as opposed to the Hill/Bailey moves. But mainly, I was relieved to see that Falvey and gang were not counting on Dobnak, Thorpe, or Smeltzer to take the fifth spot from the get-go. This team is in good shape for the short season, but once agin, I'm bracing for disappointment in the playoffs. Hope they surprise me.

My hope for Rooker is that he makes a strong enough impression during his time with the big club to become a more valuable trade piece this winter. No offense, Mr. Rooker, but I want to have more players in the lineup who put the ball in play more often than you, even if it stays in the yard a lot. I'm very happy the Twins have a dozen prospects who excite me more.

Great post. But it made me think about whether they're making progress on a starter strategy, and just what that strategy is. They have Maeda, Pineda, and Berrios back in 2021, but do they have enough starting pitching talent in the high minors in comparison to their rivals? When I look at the list, I see that every opponent in the division has a greater number (either one or two more) of pitching prospects that grade out at 50FV or better than the Twins, who count Balazovic, Duran, Enlow, and Canterino in that category. But because it's a numbers game, it concerns me that MLB.com only regards Colina and Sands as worthy of a 45FV grade. In comparison, KCR and CLE have nine and six of those respectively, and both CWS and DET have a couple more than the Twins. Despite the current apparent roster depth, the pitching pipeline could use some help for the future.

I understand ash's sentiments too. I take minor solace from the fact that, because an effective bullpen is a numbers game, I see evidence that Falvey is trying to keep the numbers up. And when the postseason comes, we often see obvious heroes become goats and obscure pitchers often make a name for themselves.

Let's get greedy. I want to see some magic with the drafting of pitching prospects in later rounds and turning them into guys like Civale, Plesac, Clevenger, Bieber, etc. I'm going to be watching their 2019 draft, hoping a couple of the (many) college pitchers they drafted become legit starters. From what I see, virtually every team in the ALC has a superior talent pipeline, especially when it comes to pitching, with CLE being the ironic possible exception. I'm not as convinced as others that we have upcoming replacements in 2021 for Odo, Pineda, Homer, and Hill.

I think you're probably right. FanGraph has Cantillo, Arias, and Miller ranked #12, #16, and #25 in a system that is one of the very best and deepest in all of baseball. And Cleavenger is clearly an a**hat.

Me neither. I'd implore people to watch the video of Jacob Blake's mother, Julie Jackson, addressing ALL of us. Personally, I will never know the depth and despair felt by so many after witnessing two more horrific acts of callous hatred play out in Kenosha. We don't know how this is impacting individual players and their loved ones. But I think it might be tone deaf to think of the "consequences" for any of them to be minimal, or to think they are "getting a day off."

This is probably an unpopular idea, but if I were GM, I'd dangle both Romo and Clippard at the deadline hoping for an outsized prospect return. I'd be inclined to run with what we have: Duffy, Rogers, and May, then Wisler, Stashak, Alcala, Littell, Thielbar, Poppen, and if needed, Duran, Smeltzer, Coulombe, Colina, etc. I might even see if a team really really really wants Rosario. Cave, too. I'm assuming Kirilloff and/or Larnach are looking good, maybe Lewis as well.

Don't get me wrong, I'm enormously impressed by what you writers know about the finer points of the game!

You guys could write this stuff in Hungarian and my comprehension would remain the same.

Personally, I think of what number one would assign to a starter whose performance idealized what you'd want on a championship team. With that in mind, I'd conclude that the Twins lack a 1-2 starter. I use this two-number thing because, even in most pitcher's most consistent stretches, there is performance volatility. And frankly, experience shows us that tons of pitchers can plummet from 1-2 performance to Advanced A performance in a heartbeat, and for long periods, usually because of an onset of physical problems. Berrios, to me, is a 1-2 guy going through a dismal stretch. He's the best talent. One could argue about whether the 2 or the 3 gets bold type for Maeda, Odorizzi, Hill, Pineda, and now even Dobnak. I'm inclined to think I'd want them as my third starter or lower on a championship team, in no small part because of endurance and injury traits, so I'd label every one of them as 2-3's, which means every one of them can get hot and give you a good run of #2 performance. There are maybe a dozen 1-2's in all of baseball. I believe we need one of those if we want to be anything more than a long shot in the postseason. And we need a 1-2 too. Berrios, are you that guy?

Is "timing" different than having a slow bat? Smalley said his swing is long right now. To this very untrained eye, it simply appears that his reaction time is a split second slow, and then his bat can't catch up. Too many 92MPH FB's sneaking past that swing in the heart of the zone it seems to me. Hope someone writes an analytic piece about what they think is the issue with him, and with Garver too.

The odds of any of these guys becoming even a tad impactful for the major league club are extremely low.

Unless Garver and Sano become something other than pathetic automatic K's, we're going to see rally-killings. If you can throw 93, you can get it past both those guys, anywhere in the zone. Hope they're doing something between games to speed up those bats.

In two weeks, of the 14 teams that will not be playoff bound, will even 6 of them be resigned to this? Personally, I want our team to either be sellers if they identify a desperate team willing to overpay, or I want them to stand pat and take their chances. There will not be a difference-maker available. There will not be a Graterol or Pressly type being dangled. (Too soon?) I could see them trying to swipe some minor league asset away in exchange for a redundant piece, maybe Clifford or Romo if Alcala, Stashak, and Littell shine. Both would snare someone better than Dakota Chalmers, who they got for Fernando Rodney. I can see them trying to pull that kind of trade off. Cave or Adrianza? Both might be expendable. I doubt they move Rosario or a starter.

Pretty unwatchable stuff in real time, outside of Buxton and Alcala. Garver's bat looks Laudner-like. Slow motion swing.

This trade bothered me, simply because it created a shortage rather than being a trade from surplus. I want this team to become a consistent trade deadline seller from surplus, regardless of where they're positioned in the standings. As a buyer, you give up Jaylin Davis, Prelander Berroa, and Kai-Wei Teng for Sam Dyson. As a seller, you get Dakota Chalmers for your 6th BP option, Fernando Rodney. I'd be cool if they traded Sergio Romo, who's under contract through 2021, for some team's #15-20 prospect, if Stashak, Littell, Alcala or someone else emerges.

This is such interesting stuff! Although if I tried to share it with the people in my real life, I would not be invited back...

Yeah, I'm with you. I wonder if Falvey isn't trying to be strategic by showing tons of relief pitchers a few opportunistic low leverage innings here early with the hopes that he can deal a surplus arm or two to teams desperate to stay in the hunt for a minor league return. Similar to what he has done before. Fernando Rodney got us Dakota Chalmers Ryne himself netted us this future star Hunter McMahon. On the flip side, they got nothin' for Nik Turley and only $25,000 for Nick Burdi.

Five games and 5.1 innings for the Nats so far, 3 hits allowed, no runs, and a win under his belt. Thanks for asking.