Physics Guy

Also from Gleeman's article: "For instance, Rosario led the 2019 Twins with 109 RBI, one more than Nelson Cruz. That season, Rosario came to the plate with a team-high 412 runners on base, compared to 332 for Cruz. Rosario received 80 more RBI opportunities, yet drove in just one more run. He also received the Twins’ most RBI chances in 2018 and 2020, and the second-most in 2017." https://theathletic.com/2234367/2020/12/02/eddie-rosario-twins-non-tender/ (I strongly recommend signing up for the Athletic if you don't already.)

I think you grossly overestimate Rosario's value as a cleanup hitter. His production was much more a result of opportunity than of some innate ability to drive in runs. This is from Gleeman's article on the Athletic: "Rosario drove in 15.5 percent of runners on base, compared to the AL average of 14.4 percent, and that doesn’t fully account for how many outs he ate up or how infrequently he drew a walk to become an RBI chance for the next hitter. Justin Morneau, the team’s “RBI man” before Rosario, drove in 17.8 percent for the Twins. Joe Mauer, long criticized for low RBI totals, drove in 17.0 percent." Kepler drove in 90 in 2019 while batting mostly leadoff. I see no reason why Max can't hit #4 if they want to separate Cruz and Sano. Even better yet, let Sano bat #4 and Kepler #5. Arraez or Polanco can handle the leadoff spot.

Kepler is that backup. I suspect Kirilloff takes over for Rosario, but that doesn't take care of a RH bat in the OF. Rooker would be OK there occasionally, but I suspect he gets more time at 1B or DH.

Jose Ramirez should have at least earned a mention at 3B. He had a down first half last year but was en fuego after that. He is arguably the best 3B in the AL Central and finished 3rd in the MVP voting the past two years. The division has an embarrassment of riches at 3B and SS. The reigning batting champ (Tim Anderson) didn’t garner a mention either.

By all means, let's dump a former 1st round pick that just had an .801 OPS in AAA and has been at least two years younger than the average player at every level he's played at. Especially for a team that does not have great depth at SS.

I was pondering this the other day as I question whether Polanco can stay at SS. Picking up a SS at the level of Lindor or Story would be great so that we could move Jorge to 2B. I started with thinking of trades involving Arraez and a couple of prospects, but then started wondering if Polanco's contract as a cost-effective SS might be appealing to both Cle and Col. Might they be able to structure a trade for one of them around Polanco and a couple of prospects not named Lewis, Kirilloff and Graterol? Both Story and Lindor are only controlled for another 2 years whereas Polanco can be controlled thru 2025.

For one year of Ray? I doubt they get that.

Apparently the answer was no, not that we made the offer. 7 for $245 wins the Strasburg prize. A little shocking at his age, but not terribly. Makes me think Cole is going for 7/280 or 8/300.

I doubt it. He will make 17.8M this year, almost double what he did last year. Next year he gets to enter FA without a QO dragging his offers down. He could likely be a top 5 FA starter next year.

One of these things is not like the others... Rosario has stolen 36 bases in 5 years and been caught stealing 19 times. Sure, he "can" steal bases, but with that success rate he probably shouldn't be.

Why would they be posturing? Do you really think they would make the offer if they didn't think he might accept it? Why would they waste their time. They chose to limit their offer to 5 years and from what I can tell, the Cubs may have been the only ones to go to 6 years. Not going to 6 years for Darvish wasn't necessarily a bad decision, considering where the Twins were at two years ago. IMO, they are in must better shape to go for it this year. I sense your frustration from several posts, but it's early yet. How many big name pitchers have been signed in early December the past five years?

A cursory look back at the Twins offer was that it was for around $100M, but only five years. The AAV was pretty similar and in the same ballpark as others. It appears the Cubs won out because they gave him 6 years. I would hardly call it a token offer unless you know that they offered it after the Cubs offered 6 years.

In my opinion, the risk of signing Wheeler is nowhere near what the Eovaldi signing was. Eovaldi capitalized on an excellent 12 games after being traded to the Red Sox (and a great posteseason) to get a 4 year $68M contract ($17M AAV). He had a total bWAR of 7.6 the previous 5 season. Wheeler has 7.4 bWAR over the past two seasons. I'd take the "risk" of a 5yr $110M contract for him any day over the Eovaldi contract. IMO the Twins need at least one more pitcher better than Odorizzi to compete in the playoffs. I don't see any of those other three as being that, save for maybe what Pineda showed right before his suspension. If the Twins aren't going to open the pocketbook this year, then I guess they are happy with last year as their best possible outcome. If you fail to cultivate top end starters from the farm you have to spend money in FA, and usually overspend to get what you need.

Yeah, overpaid is subjective. Pretty much any FA top pitcher will be "overpaid", but it's the price of doing business for a team that has failed to develop many SP. The Twins can't afford to shop the clearance rack this offseason. Next year's market looks much weaker.

Wheeler is a top 20 bWAR pitcher over the last two years (7.4 total). He is not an average player. He has pitched 50+ more innings than Odorizzi the past two years. Odorizzi will be paid $17.8M next year. Wheeler will take more than that. We need another high end pitcher who also eats innings (377.2 the past two years). It looks like he will get a 5 year deal between $100 and $110M. Who gives a crap if there is some decline the last year or two? The window is open! Now is the time to spend.

For those questioning Wheeler's worth, it appears that you are in the minority. From an ESPN article polling 15 team execs/insiders: "6. Of the second-tier guys, which of these free-agent starting pitchers would you most want your team to sign this winter: Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler or Dallas Keuchel? Survey says: Wheeler 8; Bumgarner 4; Keuchel 2; Three-way tie 1" Here's a link to the entire story: https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28160749/hot-stove-survey-mookie-betts-block-gerrit-cole-crack-300m-mlb-gms-insiders-weigh-in Edit: Okay, so in reading the entire article, there are some detractors. "8. Who is the one player most likely to be overpaid on a big contract this winter? Survey says: Wheeler 4; Grandal 2 (Grandal signed with the White Sox after our survey was complete); Nicholas Castellanos 1; Daniel Hudson 1; 7 respondents declined to answer."

I originally hoped for 5/$90, but with the number of teams in on him I think your number is probably about right. He shouldn't quite get the same as Corbin. Wheeler put up a very similar year to Corbin's second to last year in AZ. Corbin's last year in AZ likely got him a little more per year and the extra year on his contract. If you compare Wheeler and Corbin, their stats are quite similar, with Wheeler missing an extra season following TJ surgery. I'm hoping that big season Corbin had prior to FA is what Wheeler has in him after signing with the Twins.

I see something like this being a realistic offseason for the Twins. I'd prefer Wheeler to Bumgarner and also suspect Odorizzi stays, either at $17.8M QO or something like 3 yrs, 42M. I'd prefer somebody like Hamels or Porcello for the #4 spot to allow an addition to the bullpen.

I will absolutely be surprised if Cole signs for 6 years or less, unless it's a 6yrs/$240M contract. The past two years these were the top pitching FA contracts: 2018 - Yu Darvish 6yrs/$126M 2019 - Patrick Corbin 6 yrs/$140M Neither of those pitchers is Gerritt Cole. With Boras as his agent, I would be surprised if anything under 7yrs/$224 even gets you a conversation. He is going to set the record. Guys like him just don't make it to FA very often. I also believe Strasburg will do better than both Darvish and Corbin. My guess is 6yrs/$150-180M. He is opting out 4yrs/$100M left on his contract. I doubt he does so if he and his agent (is it Boras?) don't think he can at least get two more years at the same AAV.

I don't disagree with this. The Twins have the money, but I do doubt they will put so much money into one pitcher. The problem is, one of them has to want to come here. It can happen, but I doubt the Twins are high on either one of their lists. It's possible that Wheeler and MadBum can be had for not much more than Cole ($40M per season, vs $35M for Cole).

Agree with the majority here, go for both. They can afford both and sign Odorizzi to a 3-4 year contract. We would have a 26 yr old Berrios and three 30 year old starters. Hard to believe Bumgarner is only 9 months older than Wheeler, with Odorizzi in between. Leave the last spot for Thorpe, Dobnak, Smeltzer or Graterol.

I am on board with signing Donaldson if we are unable to get Cole or Strasburg. His defense would help the pitching. I wanted him last offseason. Offer the QO to Odorizzi. I would like to see them sign MadBum and Wheeler as well as . My best guess is that adds about $70-$75M to the payroll. Save $ by trading Rosario for a good RP and have Marwin/Cave/Wade play LF. Kirilloff/Rooker/Larnach are not far off. Lineup: Polanco SS, Donaldson 3B, Cruz DH, Kepler RF, Sano 1B, Garver C, Cave/Gonz LF, Buxton CF, Arraez 2B Donaldson makes the defense and offense better.

Can we please stop with the 109 RBI? Many guys could have done that batting 4th in this lineup. I do not discount RBIs. It is easy to say someone else would have it, but in this lineup everyone hit and others did not drive in 109 runs. Here are his clutch stats from BR - they are amazing Clutch Stats Split G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP SH SF IBB ROE BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+ 2 outs, RISP 50 61 56 25 16 7 0 2 26 3 0 5 6 .286 .344 .518 .862 29 0 0 0 0 4 0 .292 115 137 Late & Close 74 103 100 22 34 4 0 7 26 1 1 2 13 .340 .353 .590 .943 59 3 0 1 0 1 0 .338 133 167 Tie Game 115 194 186 23 51 9 1 10 17 1 1 8 35 .274 .304 .495 .799 92 0 0 0 0 1 0 .291 98 117 Within 1 R 135 337 319 51 97 20 2 14 45 3 2 15 56 .304 .333 .511 .844 163 2 0 1 2 2 1 .331 110 131 Within 2 R 135 424 400 66 120 23 2 16 52 5 2 21 68 .300 .333 .488 .821 195 4 0 1 2 4 1 .327 105 125 Within 3 R 136 492 464 76 135 26 2 20 60 7 2 25 85 .291 .326 .485 .811 225 4 0 1 2 5 1 .319 102 123 Within 4 R 136 531 500 82 145 27 2 22 70 8 2 28 94 .290 .326 .484 .810 242 4 0 1 2 5 1 .319 102 122 Margin > 4 R 39 61 59 5 16 4 0 2 7 0 0 2 10 .271 .295 .441 .736 26 0 0 0 0 0 0 .298 83 94 Ahead 82 184 173 30 50 14 1 7 30 4 1 10 30 .289 .326 .503 .829 87 0 0 0 1 3 1 .314 106 118 Behind 95 214 200 34 60 8 0 7 30 3 0 12 39 .300 .338 .445 .783 89 4 0 1 1 1 0 .342 98 122 https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=rosared01&t=b&year=2018

This is also why I am starting to believe that Mad Bum might be the course of action. Change of scenery might do him some good. He won't come at a discount, but will be quite a bit cheaper than Cole and Strasburg.

As much as I would love to find the way to get Cole, I have a hard time believing he doesn't resign with the Astros or head out west. I suspect he gets 6yrs/$210 M. I wouldn't be opposed to Strasburg, but he does have a problem staying healthy and will be coming off a prolonged post-season. With that in mind, here's my best guess as to what the Twins might be willing to do: 1) Sign Bumgarner to a 5 yr, $100M contract. One less year and slightly lower AAV to the top contracts the past two years (Corbin 6/$140 and Darvish 6/$126). He could be the Blyleven/Morris veteran signing that got the '87 and '91 teams over the hump. His avg. FB actually increased a little this year and is close to his peak. I don't think he is as done as some believe. 2) Sign Wheeler to a 4yr/$72M or 5/$90M contract. This would have been the second best FA contract to a starter in either '17 or '18. 3) Offer the QO to Odorizzi and see if he will sign 3/$45-48. Total signings come out to be $55-56M per year, within the feasible range. This gives us 4 solid starters and one spot to be filled by the youngsters. Rotation Berrios Bumgarner Wheeler Odorizzi Thorpe/Dobnak/Schmelzer