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Parker Hageman

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Blog Entries posted by Parker Hageman

  4. Parker Hageman
    After the split series in New York - one in which the bullpen absorbed 70% of the innings in four games - the Minnesota Twins relievers head to Tampa feeling more taxed than the Dutch population.
     
    (Yeah, that’s right: tax humor.)
     
    On Thursday, Anthony Swarzak, a rotation fill-in who is lobbying for a more permanent position, coaxed Ron Gardenhire out of the dugout once again prematurely, ending his night without getting out of the third inning.
     
    Swarzak, in his previous start, had kept the mighty Rangers lineup at bay for seven innings, allowing just four runs to a team that has averaged 5.75 runs per game. However, his game plan was exposed during the Rangers’ second trip through the order as they sat on what had become a predictable first-pitch fastball. In fact, of the first 14 Texas hitters Swarzak threw 12 fastball and just two non-fastballs. When the word got out in the visitor’s dugout, one of the most potent lineups was swinging out of their shoes at the first offering. To his credit Swarzak made some adjustments and to the final 16 hitters he faced on the night, he threw 14 non-fastballs and just two fastballs to start them off.
     
    A one-time Baseball America Top 100 prospect (okay, he was number 100 in 2006, but still…), Swarzak showed decent command of his secondary pitches, hammering a curveball down on right-handers and fading a change-up to lefties. This combination seemingly kept the Rangers as balanced as a two-legged table.
     
    So, heading into his third start of the year and facing a lineup just as frightening in the Yankees (5.17 runs per game), Swarzak had to ensure that he did not fall into the same pratfalls as he did the Rangers lineup – particularly because of the unforgiving corner outfield fences – and apply his off-speed offerings liberally throughout the night.
     
    Unfortunately, while the Yankees did not hone in on his first-pitch fastballs (which he threw to 12 of 17 hitters) they did find themselves in favorable counts when he was unable to either throw his secondary stuff for strikes or entice hitters to expand the zone:
     
     

    In the first, he was unable to get Curtis Granderson to swing at any of the two-strike changeups and was forced to throw two consecutive 3-2 fastballs – one of which Granderson popped up over the slow-pitch softball fence.
    Several batters later, Swarzak started Mark Teixiera off with a change for a ball and fed the big first baseman a fastball out over the plate on a predictable fastball count, only to watch it disappear in center.
    In the second, Swarzak started Granderson out with two fastballs, missed with a changeup and then, after falling behind 3-0, came back with two more fastballs (the second of which became a souvenir).

    Against Texas he managed to locate his secondary stuff for strikes 68% of the time while in New York, that rate dropped to 58% as he struggled with his changeup to lefties. Had Swarzak demonstrated better command over his changeup last night, he may have been able to avoid the punishment dished out by Granderson and Teixeira.
     
    As you can see from his Pitch F/X game chart, Swarzak was not unable to keep his curveball (pink squares) down in the zone consistently nor was he able to keep his changeup (yellow squares) down and away from left-handed bats:
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Swarzak_NY.png 
     
     
    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Swarzak_TEX.png


     
    Without being able to keep hitters off of his fastball, Swarzak stands to be subjected to heavy damage.
     
    Meanwhile, tonight’s starter is Swarzak’s direct competition for the last spot in the rotation, Liam Hendriks.
     
    Like Swarzak, Hendriks kept the Rangers lineup subdued in his last start, working six innings while allowing just one run – a home run to Mike Napoli. And, also like Swarzak, Hendriks does not have overpowering stuff but rather leans on changing speeds and hitting spots in order to succeed. Where the two differ is that Hendriks had a much higher tendency of “pitching backwards”, that is throwing off-speed stuff in fastball counts. That and his secondary pitches are significantly better.
     
    Hendriks, who tops out around 91-mph, can supplement his fastball with a near 20-mile-an-hour difference on his curveball which he throws at 73-mph on average. This certainly kept Rangers hitters from focusing too much on the fastball while having to respect the deuce. Additionally, while having to monitor the zone for that slow break, his fastball undoubtedly appears much quicker because of the differential. Lastly, because he throws across his body (his landing foot is towards the third base line rather than home plate) he has a unique release point that comes at an irregular angle and provides added deception for the Australian hurler.
     
    Although Swarzak has pitched well in two of three starts and is a serviceable emergency starter, of the two, Hendriks has the higher upside and should remain in the rotation if or when the decision needs to be made.
  6. Parker Hageman
    The 7-3 victory over the New York Yankees on Monday night was one that helped knock the collective monkey off of their backs for the Minnesota Twins. After all, Yankee Stadium – be it the original or this new theme park – has long given the Twins fits.
     
    Individually, too, Twins players shrugged off the load that had been weighing them down to lead to the third win of the season.
     
    Carl Pavano, who became a pariah in the five boroughs after his disabled tenure with the Yankees, proved that he’s advanced beyond simply being a punch line.
     
    Sure, he allowed two back-to-back home runs to start the game and quickly coughed up the 2-0 lead the Twins provided him, yet he remained calm and hit his spots – specifically that spot two-and-a-half inches off of the plate that umpire Gerry Davis was giving him. He worked in a devastating change-up that he buried on his opponents, getting them to miss on seven of the 26 he threw.
     
    After a series against Texas in which he went 1-for-12 with five strikeouts, people were starting to get restless about Justin Morneau’s recovery. Offensively, he looked overmatched and, as Nick Nelson examined, his plate discipline numbers were the truly worrisome part.
     
    A year ago, one of Morneau’s biggest problems was pulling open off the pitch and leaving the outer half of the plate wide open for opposing pitchers. Nevertheless, positioned at first base tonight, Morneau appeared much more dialed in following his first at bat. In his third trip to the plate, Morneau timed a Freddy Garcia “fastball” perfectly and launched a shot into the Yankees’ bullpen area. After the game, Morneau told FSN’s Robby Incmikoski that following his first plate appearance of the night, he told himself to consciously wait back.
     
    Coming into Monday night’s game, Joe Mauer was holding a ground ball rate over 60%. That tape measure shot he sent into the stands against the Angels seemed like a distance memory as the Rangers kept the Twins catcher from doing much elevating. He finished the last series going 2-for-10 while grounding into two double plays – bringing his season total of twin killings to MLB-leading four. Answering some of his critics, Mauer smacked a double to left in the first and followed that up with a double to right in the fifth inning.
     
    Danny Valencia, who had been chastised by his manager in 2011 for failing to take the ball the other way, came up in the eighth inning with the Twins holding a decent but never comfortable two-run lead in the Bronx.
     
    In addition to becoming too pull happy a year ago, Valencia’s weakness against right-handed pitching was also exposed. On the first pitch from the right-handed reliever Corey Wade – a slider running away from the zone, no less – Valencia stayed back and laced the ball into the right-center field gap, scoring Ryan Doumit from first and gave the Twins some more breathing room.
     
    All in all, it was certainly a confidence building win for the Minnesota Twins and has set a good tone for the rest of the four game series in New York.
  18. Parker Hageman
    In just 134 innings in 2011, we witnessed how good Scott Baker can be as a starter. Of course, we also witnessed what has become the inevitable season-ending injury for the second-straight year.
     
    After having a procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow in 2010, Baker experienced discomfort in the pitching side elbow once again in 2011 and was sidelined, making just four appearances post-August. The hope coming into camp was that Baker would be fully healed for what is a pivotal year for the right-hander: This is the final year of his contract and at the end of the season, the Twins will have to decided whether or not to exercise a sizable $9.25 million option for 2013.
     
    Unfortunately, similar to last spring, concerns are once again flaring up for Baker as Joe Christensen reports, he was having an "inability to get loose" in Saturday's B-game start against the Pirates. Christensen also writes:
     
     
    While most pitchers have a bell-curve when it comes to velocity, starting lower in the spring before culminating in the warmer summer months, this is a significant drop-off and, combined with the worries of getting loose, raising larger flags for the team.
     
    As I wrote last year when this issue came to the forefront, many times bone chips and spurs are larger indications of elbow problems - the chips and spurs are often caused by loose UCLs, the Tommy John ligament, and a sign that something is not structurally sound in the elbow in general.
     
    The worst case scenario is that Baker will require some sort of procedure and miss a substantial portion of the season. The best case is that rest and slowing down his progress keeps his elbow healthy for the season's duration. Then again, the likelier scenario is that he has a similar season to the previous one where he manages to through 100-130 innings only to be shut down later on.
  20. Parker Hageman
    Question: Why is this graph smiling?
     
    Answer: Because its owner just locked in $10.3 million guaranteed.
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1331276533_Perkins.png

     
    On Thursday morning, the Twins announced that they have extended Glen Perkins through 2015with an option for 2016. Heading into 2011, based on his substandard results such as his strike out rate, this would have been unheard of, a Twitter punch line among baseball fans. Glen Perkins to a multi-year deal? Get the eff out of here.
    Without question, it was hard to see this season coming. Take Baseball Prospectus - an entity that touts it as having “deadly accurate” predictions - and their forecast on Perkins:


    “Perkins clashed publicly with management in 2009, claiming that it had wrongfully downplayed the severity of his elbow injury. He then had an awful spring training and first half of the 2010 season at Triple-A before returning to the major leagues as a reliever late in the season. The real positive of 2010 was that Perkins regained velocity on his fastball (which averaged 92 mph) and improved the bite on his slider. This led to what was, by his standards, a successful September (11 innings, 11 strikeouts, 3.09 ERA). If there is a common thread to Perkins’ recent career, it is his inability to fool batters. They have hit .305 against him over the last three seasons and rarely strike out. Because he’s left-handed, Perkins will get his share of chances, be they from the Twins or other teams, but barring a continuation of his autumn activities, he’s just not a major-league pitcher.”This just goes to prove that even though you may be industry leaders in predicting performance it is still a very inexact science.
    Last spring, Perkins’ breakthrough started innocuously enough. At Fort Myers, his totals were bested slightly by the soon-to-be washed out Dusty Hughes. Hughes worked 12 innings, posting a 7/5 K/BB ratio with a .183 opponent average against while not allowing a run. Perkins, on the other hand, went 12 innings too with a good 7/3 K/BB ratio with a .238 average against. While those are both good, superficially, more people may be inclined to select Hughes rather than Perkins.
     
    And Baseball Prospectus was not alone on their assessment of Perkins. Unlike the national analysts who followed him from a far, many local bloggers who monitored his career more closely were also guilty of this egregious miscalculation of his career trajectory (present company included). His success in 2011 is a reminder to those of us who cull through the data to project players often forget about the drive that a player might have to stay at the highest level or the wherewithal to rebound from an injury. Rather than slinking into the Triple-A abyss or bouncing around from different organization to different organization, Glen Perkins went out and simply #PMKI.
     
    As Baseball Prospectus said, Perkins’ velocity in 2010 of 92 miles an hour did not stop there. It progress throughout the 2011 season, averaging 94 miles an hour and, according to Pitch F/X data, peaking, on August 10th as a 98 mile an hour bullet against David Ortiz. His arm had progressed well beyond what most experts had expected giving him a rejuvenated fastball and giving him a much better foundation to throw his secondary offerings.
    And it was the effects of his secondary pitch, his slider, which became the focal point of his reemergence. Baseball Prospectus observed that the “bite” had return but they had no idea of how impressive it would be combined with his now elite fastball. Fangraphs.com said his slider was evaluated as 9.9 runs above average – a mark that was eighth-best among qualified reliever.
     
    Because of the effectiveness of his slider, Perkins was able to manhandle right-handed opponents, often a difficult task for left-handed pitchers. Due to the movement and location of his slider, Perkins was able to induce a 32 percent chase rate of out of zone pitches by right-handed batters – the highest rate posted by a left-hander last season. As you can see in this example to the Brewers’ Casey McGahee, he was able to make it appear to be a knee-high fastball which would quickly fade into their ankles, leaving right-handers flailing away at nothingness.
     
    The results of his newfound (or rediscovered) stuff were nothing short of amazing. He went from a hurler who struck out hitters in the low-teens per plate appearance to one who was striking out more than 20 percent of opponents faced, putting him among the games top pitchers. What makes it more impressive is that he was able to handle both sides of the plate with ease.
     
    The future for Glen Perkins, just like it had been in the winter of 2010, is just as unclear. The Twins are hedging their bets that he sustains this breakout for the next four years. If that is the case, and he maintains his 1.7 WAR (which is “worth” approximately $7.8 million) he will undoubtedly outperform this contract extension. Then again, while the Twins have done well signing set-up men like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier in long-term deals, the front office seems to have a belief that relievers are a very inconsistent breed. After re-signing closer Matt Capps, who is coming off a down year, Terry Ryan said this:


    "[Capps] had an off year. I'm not trying to hide anything there. We just think he had an off year and we had a little bit of that last year. Relievers are like that a lot, and it's not just Matt. It happens many times."So Ryan and his staff understand the volatile nature of the relief business. The small sample size and the over-reliance on certain arms can lead to a down year and thus the team may wind up overpaying for his services. Clearly, having watched Perkins come up through the system and understanding what he is capable of, the Twins must be more comfortable in his potential in order to dole out that kind of cheddar to a relief pitcher who has had one year on record of success.
  21. Parker Hageman
    Nick Blackburn’s greatest redeeming quality is his ability to consume innings. Unfortunately, for the past two consecutive seasons, he has not come close to proving his worth in this department.
     
    When he was not sidelined by injuries, Blackburn pitched on either side of the spectrum for the Twins. One month - like May 2011 where he went 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in 42 innings pitched - he would be dazzling, using his sinker effectively and keeping opponents off-balanced. The next month – like July in which he went 1-2 with a 7.45 ERA in 29 innings – he’d have fallen apart and was beaten senseless across the field. Naturally, injuries played a significant role in his bi-polar performances and helps explain his decline to some degree.
     
    But Blackburn has come into camp healthier following his second-straight offseason with an elbow procedure and, according to the Pioneer Press’s John Shipley, he has made a series of adjustments that they hope will improve his numbers against right-handed hitters:
     
     
    Shifting on the rubber is not an uncommon practice among pitchers. In 2011, pitch f/x guru Mike Fast found that some premier pitchers such as Cole Hamels, Clayton Kershaw and Justin Verlander all made in-season adjustments by shifting their starting point. In their cases, all three hurlers moved to the first base side of the rubber. By shifting to the middle, Blackburn is hoping to add a bit of deception to his repertoire to combat right-handed foes.
     
    And the changes are completely necessary for Blackie. Over the past two seasons, right-handers have feasted on his offerings. In 2010, they hit a robust .318/.352/.485 in 345 plate appearances. Those totals increased this past season when they hit .316/.362/.507 in 318 plate appearances. This is starkly different from his results pre-2010 when he last threw his slider successfully. While hiding the ball longer may improve his marks, having a secondary pitch such as his slider would likely go further towards curbing righties.
     
    Keep in mind that spring training is a time where promises are often made and the regular season is where they are not kept. Last year, Jose Mijares received glowing reviews about his new two-seamer. That did not exactly pan out for the big lefty. As the spring progresses, be sure to monitor how Blackburn fares against same-sided opponents.
  23. Parker Hageman
    There’s plenty of concern internally for Justin Morneau’s future. Now former teammate and friend Nick Punto has echoed that concern.
     
    On Monday, Punto described a game of phone-tag he’s been having with Morneau and he sounds like he’s having some concerns that the big Canadian is not returning his calls.
     
    From Gordon Edes’s ESPN Boston article:
     
     
    Perhaps Punto may be reading too far into the meaning behind Morneau’s non-calls.
     
    Perhaps not.
     
    Certainly Morneau’s comments to the media in Florida last week made everyone take a step back but so far, he’s been in practice every day – even hitting a bomb off of Francisco Liriano – and went on the record to clarify his previous comments that got everyone so riled up:
     
     
    As it has been stressed, Morneau is on a day-by-day life right now. So far, there has not been any indication of concussion symptoms in spring’s infancy however, given that his last one was received while diving for a ball, there’s no telling when the next one could occur.
  24. Parker Hageman
    Before the spikes have even hit the turf at Hammonds Stadium, manager Ron Gardenhire has gone on the record as saying Denard Span is his 2012 center fielder.

    "[span's] going to lead off and be my center fielder. That’s my expectations. If somebody were to tell me that he’s not able to do that, then we’d have to ad lib. But if Denard comes in healthy, then he’s my center fielder, there’s no questions to me about that."
    Apparently, Ben Revere, who performed admirably in center in Span’s absence, was just keeping the position warm for the incumbent.
     
    There is probably little doubt that Gardenhire is basing some of his decision on the fact that Revere has a substandard arm. From the wisdom of the crowd, Fangraphs.com polled their readers to compile a collective scouting report on all players. Their contingency gave Revere’s Arm Strength a 4. This was by far the worst rating among all center fielders and a 90-point difference between him and the leader, Rick Ankiel. Also viewed critically was his release: the Fangraphs.com crowd said that his release rated as a 28, the third-lowest mark in that category too.
     
    It doesn’t take advanced metrics to recognize that Revere has a weak arm. It takes a bit more scouting acumen to see that he has a long arm throw which delays his release. Combine these two factors and it equates to extracurricular activity on the base paths.
     
    The question is what did Revere’s skill set cost the Twins and does it preclude him from being the starting center fielder?
     
    According to BillJamesOnline.net, the website which warehouses a vast majority of the Baseball Info Solution’s defensive data, they peg Revere’s arm as the worst among qualified center fielders in 2012 (minimum 700 innings) – adding data to the fan’s observations. He managed to accumulate 3 kills (throwing out runners) but allowed 63.9% of runners who had an opportunity to advance to the next base did so during his watch.
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Arms_(2012).jpg

     
    Here’s what we know about Revere: He’s fast. Because of this, we might also assume that he gets to many balls quickly, even those that fall to the ground. If he can get to more balls quicker than slower center fielders like, say, Rick Ankiel, one would think it would have some effect in preventing coaches from sending runners around the bases. Until we have other data available like how quickly an outfielder gets to a ball or how much velocity someone throws or how quick their release is, we are simply not going to have a comprehensive overview of how to judge someone’s arm. Still, looking at how many times opposing teams have had the opportunity to advance a base on him (89) versus how many times they decided to move up (56), you have to reach the conclusion that Revere’s lack of an arm has an adverse affect even if he is able to get to the ball quicker than the rest.
     
    Allowing runners to move up has been the crux of the argument for those wanting to keep Revere out of center. After all, in addition to patrolling the deepest part of the field, a center field has one of the longest throws to home plate among the three outfield positions and has a hefty chore when throwing to third base as well. In Revere’s case, opponents took note of his arm strength last year and used it to their advantage, wheeling around second-to-third or third-to-home. Understandably, if opposing teams recognize this opening, they will like walk through it at a high rate and put themselves in scoring position whenever possible.
     
    That idea certainly makes a manager cringe but, ultimately, it might be the wrong thing to focus on when deciding who should man center field.
    Moving Revere to left field definitely cuts down the distance on the throws, giving him an opportunity to cut off runners advancing to third or home. On the other side of the coin is the fact that Revere can cover ground like no other. Last year, Revere finished tied for third in Plus/Minus among center fielders with a plus-twenty (+20) mark. That means he was 20 plays better than the average center fielder which added up to 11 runs saved.
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Range_(2012).jpg

     
    What this boils down to is that by the Plus/Minus system, it is much more valuable to prevent hits than it is to allow the opposing team the opportunity to move into scoring position.
     
    In terms of his arm, Revere has spent the offseason trying to improve in that area. Revere told 1500ESPN’s Judd Zulgad and Joe Anderson that he has been throwing “long toss with a football” to build strength. And while he may be able to add a few MPHs, his long arm action still needs to be pared down to shorten his release time. Additionally, there are no real precedence set to say how much a player’s arm can develop over an offseason so there is no way of telling how much Revere can improve his arm.
     
    To be sure, Denard Span is no slouch in center himself, especially in his 500-plus innings there last year. While he was not quite at Revere’s catch ‘em all caliber, he managed to save six runs which ranked him as the 11th best center fielder according to the P/M system. In the end, moving Revere out of center may play towards his lack of arm strength however it might wind up costing the Twins some outs when he is no longer patrolling the spacious center at Target Field.
  25. Parker Hageman
    John Shipley had an article this morning regarding Danny Valencia and shared some of the spillage of information gathered from general manager Terry Ryan in his blog.
     
    Ryan on how he handles players:
     
     
    On his defensive struggles:
     
     
    On Valencia's clubhouse presence:
     
    On Valencia's future:
     
     
    I've certainly heard from a few front office members who have not quite embraced Valencia's "swagger" attitude. That doesn't exactly fit the Twins mold. Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean it's a bad thing either, but when a team is losing, those sorts of traits are magnified (a hundred times more when your production drops off from your rookie year as well).
     
    Even with his personality that might rub people the wrong way, you have to appreciate that he is attempting to improve on the field, working on both his offense as well as his defense. If Valencia makes the necessary tweaks at the plate - returning to someone who thrived going back up the middle instead of trying to turn on every pitch - I wholly expect his numbers to be significantly improved in 2012. If that happens to be the case, I would anticipate the comments regarding his attitude to subside.
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