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Parker Hageman

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  5. Parker Hageman
    There is no shortage in interest of Miguel Sano among Minnesota Twins fans.
    Last weekend, extended lines stretched around the Dome of people waiting to secure an autograph of a player who is still several years away from making his big league debut. This week, MLB.com announced their Top 100 prospects and labeled Sano the best third base prospect in baseball as well as the 12th overall in the game. He’s all the rage.

    Rarely do I field any question more from Twins fans these days than “When do you think that Sano will be ready?” Pronunciations of his last name will vary but the curiosity for the kid who has pummeled pitching at the lowest levels of the minors is growing rapidly in the Twin Cities and beyond.
    Defensively the mission is clear: Cut down on the errors. As a player just learning the position, this should be improved upon by time and repetition. Offensively, his obvious strong suit, there are a few wrinkles to smooth out prior to making it to Minnesota.
    Those who have followed his development on a regular basis have seen the unbelievable scouting grades on his power. This past August, former Baseball Prospectus prospect maven and current Houston Astros front office member Kevin Goldstein reiterated that he viewed Sano’s power potential as an 80 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale. Sano’s first season in the Midwest League (low-A), certainly did nothing but possibly make scouts think about adding a few more numbers on to that scale to account for his pop. In addition to leading the league with 28 home runs (nine more than the next closest), he also led the league in isolated power average (.263) as well. That is an impressive statistic considering the league’s average for isolated power is around .120. And, the Midwest League, while favorable to hitters is not nearly the launching pad as compared to other leagues such as the California and Carolina leagues.
    While playing like a man among boys thus far in his career, at just age 19, Sano has plenty of adjustment to be made before launching shots into the third left field deck at Target Field. For example, not striking out so damn much.

    Analysts like to compare Sano’s potential to that of Miguel Cabrera. With Sano’s large frame that has not matured fully, one can see where the comparison comes from. Yet one key difference is that Cabrera struck out in about half of the minor league plate appearances that the Twins prospect has. Cabrera, who was called up by the Marlins as a 20-year-old, whiffed in just 16% of his minor league plate appearances. Meanwhile Sano, in 500 fewer professional plate appearances, has struck out 26% of the time.
    One correction the Twins and Sano have made since his Gulf Coast League days is quieting his noisy hands. In 2010, still a raw player fresh from the Dominican, Sano demonstrated a healthy bit of waggle to his bat – that is the constant movement of his hands prior to and when the pitch was being delivered.
     
    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1359731313_Sano1.gif
     
    Fast forward to the 2012 season with Beloit, Sano’s swing is much steadier, keeping his hands and bat still, which should lead to better contact and a quicker point A-to-B swing.
     
    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Sano2.gif
     
    Obviously, this change does not appear to have influenced his strikeout totals -- as that total rose again from 2011 to 2012 – but the difference was that he saw a noticeable reduction in the amount of strikeouts swinging (from 21% in ’11 to 18% in ’12) and an increase in the strikeouts looking (from 5% in ’11 to 8% in ’12). Incremental but perhaps an important step in Sano’s development.
    In addition to his strikeout rate, another area of his game to watch in 2013 is his line drive rate. Line drive rate is an important indicator which shows if a hitter is making solid, square contact. Likewise, among the three methods of putting the ball in play, line drives have the highest percentage of turning into a hit.
    Sano’s line drive rate has declined over the last three years while his fly ball rate has spiked, particularly from 2011 to 2012. According to minorleaguecentral.com, Sano held a 38% fly ball rate in 2011 but witnessed that rate jump to 48% last year. Not surprising, Sano’s batting average also dropped sharply from .292 to .258. Unless you are a player who can hit out a vast majority of their fly balls and while Sano led the Midwest League in the amount of flies to leave the park, there are still a high number that stay in the confines and those are turned into outs at a very favorable percentage to the defense.
    Without having watched him play on a regular basis, the compilation of videos available on the internets show somewhere around 15-to-20 of his swings. This reveals a player who is extremely susceptible to chasing after the low ball. As opponents’ reports spread from the Appy League to the Midwest League – not to mention pitchers’ ability to locate better -- Sano likely has seen a high dosage of pitches down. This tendency may explain the spike in his fly balls (as well as his hefty strikeout rate). When going after a pitch down in the zone, Sano will drop the bat at an angle which causes hitters to elevate the ball more frequently. As mentioned before, a good amount of those knee-high fastballs can be lifted up and out of the park but an even high total will be turned into outs in the outfield.
    Sano, who will start the 2013 season with the Ft Myers Miracle, will almost certainly experience a drop in his power numbers – particularly his home run totals. Ignore it. The Florida State League squelches offensive output. Rather, focus on the peripheral numbers (is he striking out more or less) and his batted ball tendencies (is he producing more line drives). Most of all: Show patience. There’s no question that Miguel Sano has a bright future ahead of him but he has a couple more years of work ahead of him.
  16. Parker Hageman

    All The Way May?

    By Parker Hageman,

    [ATTACH=CONFIG]2866[/ATTACH]When the Minnesota Twins traded Ben Revere to the Phillies, they acquired one pitcher to help them in the present (Vance Worley) and one for the future (Trevor May).
     
    In Worley, the Twins landed a somewhat seasoned middle-of-the-rotation starter who has above-average movement. But Worley had recent elbow issues, necessitating the addition of the Phillies’ top prospect, May.
     
    May’s pedigree is strong. His velocity ranges up to 95 complimented with a decent curve and an improving changeup. Unlike the majority of his Minnesota pitching prospect counterparts, May has been able to get batters “out” by throwing three “strikes”. On his way to these “strike outs”, he has avoided bats but also the strike zone as well – an aspect of his game which may have soured the Phillies on his potential.
     
    Now in the Twins’ system, can they get the maximum return out of his abilities and turn him into a top of the rotation arm?
     
    Within the 2012 season, the 22-year-old May impressively led the Eastern League in strikeouts (151), exhibiting dominance at times over his elder competition in his first stint Double-A ball. However, he also topped the league in walks (78) and home runs allowed (22). Both are somewhat disconcerting figures coming from the Phillies’ minor league pitcher of the year in 2011.
     
    The home runs allowed spiked significantly from eight total the previous year – certainly a byproduct of leaving the pitcher-friendly Florida State League and facing tougher competition – but the walk rate also increased after showing signs of improvement in his command in 2011.
     
    The struggle with his control is nothing new to May. In his first three years of professional baseball, while compiling impressive strikeout numbers, the right-hander walked 13.7% of all batters faced. In efforts to correct this issue, the Phillies attempted to corral his mechanics and smooth them out. According to May after his 2011 season, in which he made inroads towards bettering his free pass rates, he told reporters that:
     
     
    Although he may have made some significant strides in the overall quality, there was a remaining kink in his delivery.
     
    From
    , one thing that jumps out about May’s mechanics is an unstable balance point which affects his ability to keep everything consistent and encourages rushing through his delivery. Here are some stills of May at his balance point and while beginning to drive forward. Notice how his back foot is coming unglued from the rubber: 
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]2867[/ATTACH]
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]2868[/ATTACH]
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]2869[/ATTACH]
    While this is isolated to his wind-up and not a trait exhibited on each delivery, it was something that likely influenced his overall command. Compare the above images to one of the other recent prospect acquisition, Alex Meyer. Notice how Meyer’s back foot stays flush and allows his upper body to remain balanced at the peak of his delivery:
     
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]2870[/ATTACH]
     
    The Phillies coaching staff and instructors likely noticed this problem area and have tried to get him to adjust. In 2012, while in Double-A Reading, May closed his pre-delivery stance thereby reducing the additional foot movement and, hopefully, leading to a more stable balance point.
     
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]2871[/ATTACH]
    [ATTACH=CONFIG]2872[/ATTACH]
     
    So far, the change led to more walks (not to mention, home runs). Now, this could be a byproduct of adapting to a new delivery or it could be that the change never corrected his balance problem. At 23 in 2013, the Twins have the opportunity to continue to hone May’s mechanics in attempts to harness his above-average velocity and swing-and-miss secondary offerings.
     
    As the organization sets their sights to 2014 and beyond, May's progress - particularly in the walks department - will be closely monitored as they try to refine him into a frontline starter.
  20. Parker Hageman

    Meet Alex Meyer

    By Parker Hageman,

    Yesterday, the Twins traded a known commodity in center fielder Denard Span for the potential of right-hander Alex Meyer, a 6-foot-9, hard-throwing and former first round pick with talents that have impressed prospect pundits.
     
    While the Nationals get immediately better, the Twins will have to wait to see if Meyer’s talent pans out.
     
    Here’s what we know about Meyer: He can throw in the upper 90s (ooh!) coupled with a devastating breaking pitch (ahh!) and is really super tall (whoa!). Do those three things make him destined for baseball immortality? Not necessarily, after all, two of those three things could have been said about former Twin Jim Hoey.
     
    So what makes Meyer so promising to the Twins?
     
    Off the bat, well, he misses bats - something that has been sorely lacking among the system’s talent. In first professional season, Meyer struck out 26.6% of all batters faced. Comparatively, the starter to throw over 100 innings with the closest strikeout rate within the Twins organization was Liam Hendriks with a 19.9% strikeout rate.
     
    When opponents do make contact, they have mainly put the ball in play on the ground. With a ground ball rate over 50% split between two levels, Meyer has proven that his pitches are difficult to square up. Although grounder rates typically decline some as a pitcher advances up the ladder, Meyer’s current rate is impressive and a good starting point.
     
    Because of his Futures Game outing, albeit a brief, six-pitch endeavor, we have a glance at what sort of action he has on his pitches thanks to the magic of pitch f/x cameras.
     
    The first thing that sticks out is his release point. Naturally, with a big frame at 6-foot-9, you would expect that he would have an equally impressive release point. Unlike fellow vertically imposing hurlers like Jon Rauch (6-foot-11), Meyer does not have a release point that extends above his height limit. Rauch’s fastball release point has averaged 7.1 feet above the ground (remember, pitch f/x captures the “release point” a foot and change after a pitcher lets go of the ball). By comparison, the pitch f/x camera’s that night in Kauffman Stadium said that Meyer’s fastball was being released at 6.6 feet on average - slightly below his overall height.
     
    This means Meyer is coming from a three-quarter slot rather than over-the-top arm action. In this screen grab captures from Mike Newman’s scouting video, you can see where Meyer’s release point is:





    During his Futures Game outing, BrooksBaseball.net says that Meyer’s no-seam fastball, a pitch he threw four of the six times, averaged 99 miles an hour with glove-side run.
     
    Obviously when you are throwing cheddar at 95+ as a starter, the movement is not exactly the focal point that the hitter is grumbling about as he walks back to the dugout. Still, it is noteworthy that Meyer has some very good run on his fastball nonetheless. If you don’t have movement, you end up like Jim Hoey’s fastball which major league opponents can catch up to,
     
    In describing this no-seam pitch, Meyer told MiLB.com’s Andrew Pentis that in college he had thrown a straight four-seam fastball but discovered that he actually threw his “no-seam” fastball -- a two-seam grip in which he positions his fingers closer together off of the seams -- harder than his four-seamer with the added bonus of movement. Combined with his three-quarters release point, this pitch will demonstrate plenty of run.
     
    So, if a hitter actually is able to catch up to this 99er, it is also running either into (if right-handed) or away from (if left-handed) and making it that much more difficult to square up. This is part of the reason why he has been able to generate ground balls in over 50% of balls put into play.
     
    This particular clip of his fastball, captured during a bullpen session while in the South Atlantic League by the aforementioned Newman, shows how his fastball runs down and into right-handers:
     
    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1354284175_Meyer2.gif
     
    What you also see is his ability to dial it up to another level:
     
    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Meyer.gif
     
    Meyer’s fastball does not end up at the catcher’s target (down in the zone) but rather finishes up in the zone. To me, this is reminiscent of some of Justin Verlander’s fastballs. Watching Verlander the years, you see his catcher call for something lower and then have the right-hander simply overpower you with a high fastball.
     
    What makes him more than just a one-trick pony is his devastating knuckle curve he mixes in. While some outlets will frequently refer to this pitch as a “slider” - mostly because it is thrown with a hard velocity and has a sharp, downward break - Meyer actually grips this pitch with a fingernail dug into the horseshoe-shaped part of the ball.
     
    As he describes to Pentis:
     
     
    Here is Meyer’s knuckle curve grip during the Futures Game. Note the positioning of his index finger:

     


    This downward action created by the grip has caused plenty of swing-and-misses and was rated by Baseball America as the best slider in the Nationals’ organization. While it is absolute filth at times, some of his unstable mechanics, an issue with taller pitchers, caused some problems this pitch.
     
    During his outing this summer, Newman noted that:
     
     
    In addition to his knuckle curve, Meyer is developing a change-up which he admits does not have the overall feel for but is working hard on perfecting that pitch. At the very least, the change in velocity -- from the upper 90s to the upper 80s -- gives the opponents something to think about. However, if Meyer is going to progress to the point of being a front-of-the-rotation starter, he will need to have that all-important third pitch. Otherwise his two-pitch fastball-knuckle curve combination has reliever written all over it.
     
    It’s long been said that there is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Some flame out, some get hurt and some never adapt. In Meyer’s case, injury is not out of the question, but his skill set is very strong. The Twins organization’s coaches and instructors -- likely those in New Britain -- will be tasked with refining his mechanics and instilling some consistency in them as well as finalizing his change-up in order to maximize his potential as a starter.
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