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Blog Entries posted by Parker Hageman
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Last season, the switch-hitting Alexi Casilla had produced at a very good rate against right-handed pitching.
In 247 plate appearances in the left-handed batter’s box, he hit .274/.350/.400 – not too shabby for a middle infielder. This was a significant improvement for someone who had hit .228/.299/.320 from the left-side over the two previous seasons (2009 and 2010) in 314 plate appearances.
Most analysts would likely dismiss his 2011 breakout as a statistical glitch of the effects of a small sample galaxy in comparison to his vast universe of career suck-i-tude. Meanwhile, before this season started I presented the argument that Casilla, at the ripe baseball age of 27, was finally ready to breakout. Based upon his mechanical changes he made in 2011 and his impressive winter ball performance which yielded some very good numbers, I was optimistic that Casilla would more than earn his $1.4 million payday and pick up where he left off in July of 2011.
Of course, rather than being motivated to prove my thesis correct, Casilla continued to do his best Luis Rivas impersonation.
After posting a career-best 750 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2011, Casilla has struggled to even reach 500 mark (currently at 475 OPS). In fact, his .192 average against right-handers is the fourth-lowest in the American League and the lowest among those with the platoon advantage. Once again, although it may be easy to simplify his performance to regression, Casilla’s offensive downturn has more to do with his mechanics and timing.
The first clip is a swing from June 2011 that exemplifies his approach from May through July of 2011. Watch his lower half and witness a fluid and unison leg lift, a front toe tap that comes after the pitcher releases the ball and a noticeably violent lower-half weight transfer:
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_May2011.gif
Casilla implemented these mechanics from May onward of last season and experienced terrific results. This gives his swing pop, instead of the slap-hitting Casilla we became accustom to seeing over the majority of his career.
Compare that swing to his pre-May 2011 approach:
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_April2011v3.gif
Notice that his stride is completed prior to the pitcher’s release of the ball (in the first version, he started his stride mid-pitch), leaving him flat-footed and simply shifting his weight from back to front and using more of his upper body in his swing.
Casilla’s current mechanics are almost identical to those he used before his hot streak in 2011. Note the foot plant well before the pitcher’s release and muted weight shift:
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_2012.gif
There is no clear reason as to why Casilla abandoned the method which proved the most fruitful for one that is quickly expediting his career out of professional baseball. Perhaps it is that his sporadic time between starts has thrown off his timing. Maybe it is something that the coaching staff has encouraged him to revert back to the old approach. Whatever the rationale behind it, it would seem to make more sense to attempt to revisit video of his swing from last year and attempt to resurrect his mechanics from that stretch of baseball.
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For the 9-to-5ers in Twins Territory, those who did not attend the game should consider themselves lucky they stayed in the office rather than witness Nick Blackburn’s last start on Wednesday afternoon.
For the second consecutive start, Blackburn was punished across the field, allowing another pair of home runs to Chicago’s Adam Dunn and Alex Rios. The one-time groundball-getter has failed to induce the batted ball types that earned him that label. In those two starts, he managed to get 12 grounders to 26 fly balls – hardly the worm-burning ratio.
At a point when the Twins are in desperate need of a starter to just throw consistent innings Blackburn, the guy they paid millions to supply just that, has been unable to fulfill their needs. Is there any hope of Blackburn turning things around or is he simply a casualty waiting to happen?
In March 2010, the Twins made the decision to sign Blackburn to a four-year deal -- in spite of coming off a season in which he led the league in hits allowed (240) -- effectively buying out his arbitration years and a year of free agency for $14 million.
Not long after that Rob Antony, the team’s assistant general manager, explained the logic behind locking in Blackburn saying that the organization believed he was capable of providing the team with more than his nearly 400 innings (399.0 to be exact), 22-22 record and 4.04 ERA which he had already put up in 2008 and 2009.
“You start putting down the numbers and all the comps that he has and you base it off of if he just does what he has done,” Antony said. “You don’t project that he is getting better – although we believe there is more in there. Instead of being an 11-11 guy, we believe he could easily be a 15-9 guy.”
Had he simply sustained his previous production, Blackburn would have been a huge bargain for the Twins. In his first two seasons, Fangraphs.com’s value metric said that he was worth $24.8 million mostly based on working 200 innings. Of course, he would not be able to maintain that level of output. Injuries and general ineffectiveness has made it look like he hornswoggled the team out of millions. Over the past three seasons, Fangraphs.com’s value metric has said he has been only worth $2.4 million while the Twins have paid him $8.25 million in actual money.
Blackburn has always been a pitcher who seems to work in a delicately balanced universe. As a high contact groundballer with the propensity to give up long home runs, he requires sterling defense behind him and laser-sharp command to guide him through his starts. If one of those items falls out of equilibrium, the levee breaks.
To his credit, Blackburn seems very cognizant of his abilities and his reliance on his mechanics to help the movement in his sinker.
This spring, Blackburn headed into camp talking about changes he had made to him mechanics and approach. The first was shifting to the middle of the pitching rubber away from the first base side he had lived at for most of his career. This, he said, would give added deception. The second change was getting to a more “over-the-top” release point to alleviate stress on his arm. In considering his season thus far, clearly neither addition has been the answer.
While pitchers are always adapting, Blackburn’s latest mechanics seem further and further away from his successful 2009 season which landed him his large payday.
Take a look at his 2009 version compared to his current one:
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1340946905_Blackburn_OAK09.gif
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_CIN12.gif
If you are looking for it, you will notice several differences but the most critical difference is in his leg stride. Notice in his 2009 model that he gets his front leg up higher and instead of bringing it back down immediately, he stretches it further out towards home. There is a brief hesitation as he gets to the peak of his leg lift before bringing his leg forward. As that is happening, his weight stays back extremely well. Meanwhile, his current mechanics involve bringing the front leg down and then drifting it forward rather than stretching it as he did in 2009.
Compare the two motions at the point in which he is beginning to move his front leg forward. Here you can see how much more he elevations his front leg in 2009 and how the 2012 version is taking more of a swinging path towards home.
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_tpost2009-OAK.jpg
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_tpost2012-CIN.jpg
Pitch F/X data details a significantly different story in the path of his sinker (classified as a two-seamer) from 2009 and 2012.
In 2009, while lining up on the first base side of the rubber, Blackburn’s sinker most often was thrown on the black of the plate (in on righties, away from lefties). This, more or less, is an ideal spot for that pitch. Notice in the overhead below that the pitch has some pitcher’s glove side run to it as well. This season, with the relocation to the middle of the slab, the sinker is thrown smack dab in the center of the plate and, unlike the 2009 version, does not have much run if any.
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_Overhead.jpg
From the strike zone view, you will see how the 2009 sinker ran in on the hands of right-handed hitters and away from the left-handed hitters’ swings. This season a solid majority of his offerings have been within the zone, giving hitters something they can square up on:
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Blackburn_Zone.jpg
In short, in 2009 he stayed back well and was able to get outstanding movement and location. In 2012, he is rushing a bit towards home which creates a timing issue and has less movement on the sinker.
As has been discussed at length at Twins Daily’s forum, Blackburn is currently a sunk cost to the Twins. He now has thrown several stinkers in a row without any signs of improving. The general attitude among the community appears to be to cut him loose and give those innings to another pitcher. Unfortunately, the team is on the hook again for $5.5 million next year and, with the current state of the rotation, the Twins could certainly use the 2009 version of Blackburn again.
There are probably some very good reasons behind Blackburn’s mechanical changes since 2009. However, given his struggles, I would submit that it cannot hurt to attempt to return to the motion he was using back when the front office invested $14 million in him and his power sinker.
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So far this season Justin Morneau has seemed as comfortable facing lefties as Mitt Romney would as the opening act for a Phish concert.
In spite of performing quite well against right-handed pitchers (hitting .310/.386/.561 and smacking 8 of his 10 home runs), among qualified hitters Morneau’s .100 average off of left-handed pitching (8-for-80 as of Wednesday) is the lowest in baseball. This is not simply a fluky situation; the Twins first baseman is completely lost mechanically at the plate against his left-handed brethren.
Prior to the nasty concussion in 2010 Morneau had handled lefties decent enough over his career. Dating back to 2004, he had hit lefties at a .269/.319/.468 clip. However, since the knee to the head in Toronto, he has posted a .124/.167/.200 line against southpaws. Perhaps it is simply rust, an injury or maybe something psychologically about being in the batter’s box and a 90 mile per hour plus fastball that cross in front of your head. Maybe it is a combination of all three. Either way, whatever is responsible for this decline does not seem like an easy fix.
Lending credence to the notion that it may be more rust or psychological rather than a physical ailment like his wrist or shoulder is the amount of times he is fool by sliders from left-handers now versus two years ago. According to pitch f/x data, in 2010, left-handed opponents threw him sliders 21% of the time. Morneau elected to swing at 53% of those thrown his way while whiffing at 14%. This year, opposing team’s have had their lefties increase the number of sliders (31%) in response to Morneau’s inability to layoff of the breaking pitch as he has swung at 70% of all left-handed sliders thrown his way while whiffing at 26% of them.
This statistical breakdown leads one to believe that Morneau is struggling with pitch recognition out of the pitcher’s hand. To make matters worse, his mechanics – particularly against left-handed pitching – has become so abysmal that he’s unable to keep himself locked in on pitches when teams attack him on the outer-half of the plate.
His batted ball distribution chart paints a disconcerting portrait of how far his skills against left-handers have eroded.
Back in 2010 Morneau was much better at using the entire field. As same-sided hurlers would throw sliders and fastballs on the outer half of the strike zone, he would be able to deposit them all over the field. Now, as we have seen more recently this year, Morneau is having difficulty doing anything against lefties besides yanking the ball:
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_batted_balls_v_lefties.jpg
This is particularly ineffective when the majority of pitches to him are being thrown away.
As noted above, Morneau is mechanically out of whack as well when it comes to swinging against lefties. Focus on his front side (hip) and compare his swing from 2010 (top) versus one from this past June against the Phillies’ Antonio Bastardo (bottom):
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2010_leg_kick.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_June.gif
You will notice that in his 2010 stance and mechanics, Morneau kept his feet closer together and made a long stride at the ball. Once he began his swing, he demonstrated the ability to keep his hip on the ball and open up along with his swing as his hands come to the ball. These traits were consistent throughout many of his clips that season.
In the more recent version however, he had widen his stance thereby shortening his stride (perhaps in efforts to reduce the movement and improve contact). When he swings, his front side basically splays wide open well before his hands come through the hitting zone. Because his front side has already committed to opening up, Morneau has no choice but to pull the ball – even if it is located on the outer-half of the plate. This too, unfortunately, is a trait that also carries with him throughout many of his swing clips from this year and is not unique just to this match-up.
With his issues at the plate continuing to progress, it became apparent that in the past week or so Morneau and hitting coach Joe Vavra have made some changes to his approach to combat this slide. The most notable of which is removing his leg kick altogether. Instead of the prominent leg lift and stride as seen in the clips above, Morneau is now simply lifting the heel of his front foot while keeping his toes firmly in the dirt:
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July.gif http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July2.gif
Additionally, there seems to be more concentration on keeping his weight back and going the other way with the pitch (at least you can see this in the clip against Bruce Chen and the Royals or today with Darin Downs on the mound for the Tigers).
The rationale behind this alteration seems to be focused on making contact by keeping him from drifting out with his front side. By not having a stride, Morneau’s hips will have less of a tendency to open up. Likewise, by minimizing the movement it allows him to keep his head still and in theory see the ball better. Of course, at the same time, this significantly reduces his power potential and it may be the reason why during Thursday’s game, Morneau went back to his original stride (with little success):
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Morneau_2012_July3.gif
In addition to the season long woes against lefties, Morneau’s power has been MIA since June 4 when he hit his last home run. The ball just is not coming off of his bat the way it had previously. According to BaseballHeatMaps.com, before June 4 Morneau’s fly balls and line drives were travelling an average of 298.27 feet. Since then, that average has dropped to 259.89 and has resulted in five extra base hits in 101 plate appearances since his last home run.
Given that he has made some changes, this indicates that he is not wholly comfortable at the plate. While he and Vavra are attempting to get back on course, it raises the larger question on whether he should continue to be used regularly against left-handed pitchers. With Morneau inserted in the fifth spot against southpaws and having him continue to produce at the abysmal rate that he has greatly diminishes the effectiveness of the lineup.
The Twins have three games remaining before the All Star Break and in two of those they will be facing southpaws. This should be a good time to sit the first baseman out for a few games, giving him some added rest and time to concoct a game plan against lefties.
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Aaron and special guest co-hosts
Parker Hageman and Joe Nelson talk about Trevor Plouffe's power explosion, Liam Hendriks' long-ball troubles, whether or not the Twins should be looking to trade Denard Span, Josh Willingham, Justin Morneau, and other veterans, why a filthy Twitter is a good thing, the development of power pitchers, and a phone call from a vacationing John Bonnes. Here are:
the podcast
the rss feed
the podcast on itunes
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Unquestionably, Trevor Plouffe has been one of the hottest hitters in the month of June, smacking eight home runs and five in the past six games.
Needless to say, it took plenty of work and patience on both the part of Plouffe and the Minnesota Twins to coax this power out. If you review his minor league numbers, he was scarcely a player one would describe as being blessed with raw power. After all, he hit 49 home runs in his first 680 games in the minors, hardly a fountain of clout. Nevertheless, with a steady tinkering of his mechanics and approach, the Twins were able to tap into a substantial, if unexpected, power source.
Over the past three seasons, Plouffe has made the transition from a slasher to an unbelievably potent bat.
In 2010, Plouffe maintained a somewhat crouched, closed stance. He held his hands high and, as you can see in the video clip, he had plenty of pre-swing bat movement. This caused him to have to move his hands a great distance from close to his head all the way back to the load position.
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_SV.gif
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_SV.jpg
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2010_F.jpg
However, in 2011, as you can see in the front view image below, Plouffe opened up his stance, keeping his front foot aim towards the shortstop side of the diamond, rather than at the second base side. This season, he made two important changes that aided him in hitting a career-high 26 home runs split between Rochester and Minnesota. The first was keeping his bat still before the pitch. The second was incorporating a more violent leg kick, helping to generate power.
In 2010 Plouffe hit what was then a career best of 15 home runs in 445 plate appearances at Rochester. In 2011 it took him only 220 plate appearances to reach that mark proving he was progressing in the power department.
A strong kid, Plouffe’s mechanical adjustments resulted in a batted ball type shift from being a ground ball hitter to one who could elevate pitches. Prior to 2011, his ground ball rate was consistently between 42% and 50% in the minors. Afterwards, that ground ball rate dropped significantly to 31% while at Rochester in 2011.
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2011_SV.gif
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2011_SV.jpg
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2011_F.jpg
Fast forward to the current season, Plouffe started the year off extremely slow, hitting just .133 with two home runs in his first 73 plate appearances. For the most part, his mechanics were very much the same as his 2011 season – one which produced both a glutton and famine of production. He still had the opened stance, the tall starting position and aggressive leg kick but now he was getting his bat position off of his body.
As you can see from the front view below, Plouffe moved his hands away from his body a bit and, as has been repeated by the FSN analysts, Ron Coomer and Roy Smalley, Joe Vavra was working on getting him to keep his head still during his swing to improve his contact rate.
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV1.gif
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV1.jpg
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_F1.jpg
In the season’s first two months, Plouffe was hitting a high percentage of fly balls, but did not quite get the desired distance. As I mentioned a little over a week ago, that began to change rapidly. This month Plouffe has turned into a manimal, tearing the cover off the ball and obliterating opponent’s fastballs. According to Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value data, Plouffe has hit the fastball 5.2 runs above average in June alone – only the Angels’ Mike Trout at 7.8 runs above average has had a better month against the heat. This has led to eight home runs over 46 plate appearances and another four doubles to boot.
There are a few minor alterations Plouffe has made since May 28 that has led to this unbridled and unadulterated display of power. The first is getting his back elbow up, which you can see in both the side and front view images. The second, and probably more important addition, is that he is placing his weight more on his back leg and giving him a slightly lowered and wider stance. In the video clip you will see that, in action, he keeps his weight back during his leg kick and we see his hip rotation is centered well almost directly above his back leg.
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV2.gif
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_SV2.jpg
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Plouffe_2012_F2.jpg
What helps too is Plouffe’s ability to make contact out in front and pull the ball. As I have previously discussed in regards to Josh Willingham Target Field can been inviting to those who have mastered the art of pulling the ball with authority. Now you can add Plouffe to that list. In terms of isolated slugging, a metric that subtracts batting average from slugging percentage to reveal just the power contributions, Plouffe has posted a .692 isolated slugging percentage when pulling the ball, second only behind Chicago’s Adam Dunn (.828).
Will Plouffe’s power continue? Despite the improvement in his swing, a lot of whether he continues to pop has to do with his contact rates, pitch recognition and ability to adjust.
A year ago, we saw some streaky power binges but opponents were able to get him to expand the zone (32% out-of-zone swing rate versus 31% league average) while his in-zone contact was firmly below average (83% in-zone contact versus 88% league average), which may be attributed to the aforementioned head movement that Vavra was attempting to correct. So far this year Plouffe has been noticeably better in both departments. He has greatly reduced his tendency to chase after pitches (26% out-of-zone swing rate versus 30% league average) and has an above average contact rate with in-zone pitches (89% in-zone contact versus 87% league average).
Part of the improvement in his contact rate, along with the potential head stabilization, is his ability to handle sliders better. In 2011, Plouffe was unable to do much against sliders, particularly from right-handed pitchers. PitchF/X data suggests he swung at 51.6% of all sliders thrown his direction that year and, all said, he was 1.4 runs below average when facing sliders. Plouffe’s inability to allow a slider to pass by likely was the reason behind his ground ball rate spiking to 40%. This year, however, he has managed to lay off more often than not when a pitcher spins one his direction. PitchF/X data says he’s swinging just 36% of the time on sliders. What’s more is that when he does put a swing on a slider, he has been doing damage to the tune of 1.9 runs above average.
Last, as mentioned above, Plouffe has been decimating fastballs, particularly on the inner-half of the zone. These facts will not likely escape advanced scouts for upcoming opponents. Soon enough, the fastball well will dry up or teams will begin to stay away from the inside part of the plate. Plouffe will need to adjust to whatever the new plan of attack is and continue to punish any mistakes thrown his way.
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The book on Ben Revere is that he is a slap-hitting, bloop-knocking, fast-running, somersaulting offensive contributor.
In his first full season at the major league level last year, he demonstrated outstanding contact. Of course, the catch was that his contact did not go anywhere. Revere would drive the ball into the ground and try to leg it out. In fact, among those with at least 400 plate appearances last year, his 68.5% ground ball rate led baseball. When he did put the ball in the air, the majority of the time it was a dying quail just past the arms of an outstretched infielder. Had Revere been on a slow-pitch softball team, none of his hits would have left the yard.
From his hit distribution chart from TexasLeaguers.com (an aptly named website in this case) of his 2011 batted balls, you can see the Twins would need to haul in their fences a good 150 feet in order to turn Revere into a home run hitter:
http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Revere_2011.png
The rookie season results were none too impressive for the outfielder. In 450 plate appearances, Revere posted a .267 average but matched that with a disappointing on-base percentage (.310) and non-existent slugging percentage (.309). Because of his lack of power, any extra base hits would have to come in the form of shooting the ball through the drawn in outfield alignment.
While his time with the Twins in 2012 has been brief, it has felt like he is getting a bit more distance on the ball than he had a year ago. In Milwaukee he doubled on a ball that one-hopped the warning track – a veritable Thome-ian blast for Revere. Later, he flew out to center in which the center fielder had to gallop all the way to the dirt to field. Last night in Chicago, he sent White Sox center fielder Alejandro De Aza near the warning track to nab another fly ball.
Perhaps this was all based on a small sample sized memory but it felt like Revere was sending more pitches deeper into the ballpark then he ever did last year. Turns out, I wasn't crazy. A cursory check at the website BaseballHeatMaps.com confirms that the sophomore is indeed getting more distance on his drives versus a year ago. In 2011, his fly balls and line drives averaged 243.47 feet off of his bat. This year, he’s added almost 30 feet, hitting his flies and liners 272.87 feet.
Twins fans like to offer the Kirby Puckett comparison for Ben Revere’s potential. After all, Puckett, like Revere, began his career as a light-hitting speedster. And it was not until Puck’s third year in the majors that he hit 31 home runs after hitting a total of four in the previous two seasons. Eternal Twins optimists believe that maybe, just maybe, the 24-year-old Revere can somehow elevate his power the same way Puckett did at age-26. Now after watching him for almost two seasons worth of at bats, I do not see in anyway Revere adds legitimate clout like Puckett had. His swing is too direct to the ball and drives down at the pitch, leading to a high amount of grounders and line drives – which is perfectly suited to fit his speed.
If Revere is not capable of developing any sort of real power, why would the fact that he’s driving his few fly balls and occasional liners a tad further noteworthy?
Because Revere’s spray chart became so predictable – to the point where a manager in 2011 could draw a chalk line at the edge of where Revere’s batted balls would go – defending him became easier. Outfielders played in and cut down some of the bloop hits and were also positioned close enough to the infield to keep Twins base-runners from advancing beyond one base if Revere happened to hit cleanly. For obvious reasons, you do not want to encourage a ground ball hitter like Revere putting the ball in the air too frequently but, if he’s able to redirect the occasional pitch towards the deeper part of the park, opposing teams may rethink their defensive alignment against Revere and move their starting position further back. This may open up the portion of the field that he excelled at doinking pitches towards in 2011.
In all, because he does not draw a high percentage of walks, Revere’s on-base numbers are strongly correlated with his ability to hit safely. In his minor league career, he routinely had batting averages on balls in play (BABIP) well above the .330 mark. At the major league level, his BABIP has decreased to .262 through 558 plate appearances. Now oh-for his past two games, dropping his 2012 line from a pre-game .270/.341/.432 to a replacement-level .244/.311/.390, Revere needs every inch of the field opened up to his advantage.
Keeping the opposing outfielders honest may be a way to clear up some real estate and get a few more hits.
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