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Parker Hageman

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Blog Entries posted by Parker Hageman

  3. Parker Hageman
    As Seth Stohs mentioned yesterday, while the rest of us at Twins Daily were all stark raving mad about Kyle Gibson’s performance in the Arizona Fall League, another Twins prospect was making noise even further south. Outfielder Aaron Hicks, who is playing winthttp://apps.startribune.com/blogs/fckeditor/editor/images/spacer.gifer ball in Venezuela, is off to a fast start this offseason, matching the expectation he set from his in-season performance at New Britain.
     
    Of course, not long ago, Hicks was in danger of falling off the “top prospect” radar although. Heading into the 2011 season, Baseball America dropped him from 19TH to 45TH despite a terrific first full season at the low-A level in Beloit. Then, as if Baseball America’s rankings had influence, Hicks lost some power and over 30 points in the batting average at Ft Myers the following year.
     
    The criticism on Hicks’s approach is that he could be too passive at times. Hicks boasts a high strikeout rate and a significant portion of those (39%) in 2011 were of the caught-looking variety, an indication that he was not aggressive enough with two strikes on him. Of course, the other side of the coin is that it has led to a 14% career minor league walk rate – a solid pillar supporting his .379 on-base percentage. While walks are en vogue with OBP-ers, there are those in the system who would like to see him use his six-foot-two athletic frame to transfer some power into the ball.
     
    His 2010 season at Beloit had him smacking eight home runs but that total dwindled down to five after his foray with the Miracle in Fort Myers. Part of the reason for the drop off simply had to do with the offensive difficulty of the Florida State League. As the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller explained this year, hitting is dern tough way down south:
     
     
    When he transitioned from high-A ball in the Florida State League to an even more polished level of competition of the double-A Eastern League, rather than being buried by the tougher pitching Hicks elevated his game. His matriculation to double-A ball could have also been a hindrance - given the significant leap in talent - but Hicks did not allow it. He hit a healthy .286/.384/.460 with 13 home runs.
     
    Where did this production come from? Was it simply a course correction after leaving the Florida State League or did Hicks make adjustments elsewhere?
    Being a switch-hitter, Hicks has had two sides of the plate in which to polish his mechanics and both have undergone some interesting transformations since 2011.
     
    Hicks from the right:
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1350623225_AaronHicks.jpg

     
    While the angles and the graininess of the 2012 minor league camera shot do not provide the highest quality to judge these two stances on, there are some things that you can derive without having the same shot side-by-side.
     
    The first is where his hands are set pre-swing. While he has a similar hold, in these two pictures you can see that his elbows/hands are lower during his time with the Miracle (left) then they were with the Rock Cats (right). This may sound like a minute detail but elevated hands, in theory, create more leverage by engaging the top hand. For a line drive/ground ball hitter, this equates to harder hit balls, perhaps as easily identifiable as his spike in isolated power (from .124 in 2011 to .173 in 2012) and a big jump in batting average on balls in play (from .308 to .346).
     
    The second difference between 2011 Hicks and 2012 Hicks is the lowered stance with the deeper knee bend. This compacted stance figures to generate more power from his hips and lower half. In addition to the higher hand set this, according to minorleaguecentral.com, has lead to a higher fly ball rate from the right-side (from 29% in 2011 to 39% in 2012) and more home runs (from 3 to 7).
     
    Hicks from the left:
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/AaronHicks_Left_1.jpg

     
    The same disclaimer from above applies to this one as well: the angle and the graininess distort some perception and do not provide a crystal clear view to compare fully.
     
    As opposed to the shots above, these two images are of Hicks striding from the left-hand side.
     
    The first thing that stands out is where his hands are had at the loaded position. In the
    (left), his hands are lower and, judging by the angle, closer to his body. In the 2012 version (right), his hands are slightly higher and away from his body. This should give him a quicker path to the ball.Interestingly, when Hicks was first drafted, he had a severely long swing from the left side (which you can see in this pre-draft swing .gif here). His hands were significantly higher which led to an elongated swing. So these modifications are simply the evolution in shortening that swing. Also, similar to the aforementioned right-hand side, he is also compacted more which gives leaves him able to generate power from the lower-half better.
     
    The alterations made have led to a higher line drive rate (from 13% to 19%) and more power (from 2 home runs to 6) from this side of the plate.
     

    ****


     
    This should be viewed as very positive development for the 23 year old prospect. Along with his above average defense – including his exceptional arm in the outfield – Hicks has reaffirmed the belief that he is an elite prospect after putting up terrific numbers in double-A. With some seasoning in Rochester schedule for this year, if this progress continues, Hicks could quickly make his way into the Twins outfield.
  4. Parker Hageman
    Just over a year removed from his Tommy John surgery, Twins pitching prospect Kyle Gibson has made two encouraging starts in Arizona, firing 92-to-95-mph bullets and keeping the game’s top prospects off-balanced with an 83-86-mph slider.
     
    That’s right: Hitting 95 miles per hour according to the Pitch F/X system in Arizona.
     
    Let’s take a look at why his AFL performance should give Twins fans hope.
     
    According to MLB.com, Gibson has been aware of the velocity increase and views it as a positive sign:
     
     
    According to BrooksBaseball.net, Gibson’s fastball/sinker combination was caught at the 2011 Futures Game registering 91.8/91.3-mile per hour, respectively, by the Pitch F/X cameras. So far in the Arizona Fall League this year, those same pitches are averaging 93.3/93.2 miles per hour, very much up a “tick.”
     
    Gibson said he had been working on refining his mechanics, something that was critiqued at the time of his draft, and that is one factor behind the added velocity:
     
     
    In addition to throwing with a newly insert ligament, Gibson has had time to smooth out those rough spots in his motion. During the time of Nationals’ phenom Stephen Strasburg’s rehab, the notion of added velocity for some TJ survivors was credited to several factors including conditioning applied during the recovery period as well as the down time allotted pitchers to scrutinize and improve mechanics.
     
    But those radar gun readings are not the only thing that has made Gibson’s “sinker” (actually a two-seamer) so incredibly hard to square up on. In spring of 2011, prior to his ligament snapping, Gibson was turning heads in camp with this pitch’s action. Back then, the Star Tribune’s La Velle Neal wrote that he could “throw at a left-handed hitter’s hip and watch it break toward the inside corner.”
     
    The movement displayed by this pitch is quite impressive. Check out the pitcher’s arm side run that this one takes during spring practice to Mauer in 2011:


    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1298869473_Gibson_TwoSeamer.gif

    Coupling with the movement and velocity of his ground-ball inducing sinker is his swing-and-miss generating slider – a slider that was christened by Baseball America in January as the “best” slider in the Twins’ system. In two starts in Arizona this fall, Gibson’s slider has induced 15 missed bats on 22 swings (34 sliders overall). Here comes the obvious precursory small sample size warning applies with 34 pitches but his 68% whiffs/swing would top the Baseball Prospectus’ Pitch F/X Leaderboard, as the next closest would be Zach Britton at 52%.
     
    Don’t be fooled by the raving scouting report above – it would be unwise of the front office to head into the 2013 satisfied they have found another internal candidate to carry them through 200 innings. However, if the Twins are able to coax Gibson through the fall, winter and spring without any setbacks, given his display of above-average stuff, he undoubtedly could be a valuable part of the rotation in some capacity.
  11. Parker Hageman
    The befuddlement continues as Hendriks’ winless streak now reaches 17 starts and counting.
     
    Dating back to beginning of 2011, Hendriks has put up two stellar seasons in the minor leagues, posting a 2.86 ERA with a 193/49 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 245.2 innings split between New Britain and Rochester. In 2011, the Twins named him their Minor League Pitcher of the Year. Based on those figures and accolades, expectations were high for him.
     
    Naturally, that has not quite panned out so far at the major league level.
     
    Heading into last night’s game righties were hitting .381/.426/.702 in 143 plate appearances. That is a remarkable batting line considering the rest of the league’s right-handed pitchers have subdued their same-sided brethren to the tune of .252/.308/.398. The magnitude of those power numbers is unprecedented. Think about that: right-handed opponents’ slugging percentage (.702) off Hendriks is just five points lower than the league’s overall OPS (.707) during righty-on-righty action.
     
    What makes this case even more curious is that in the minors the past two seasons Hendriks handled righties just fine. According to MinorLeagueCentral.com’s splits, Hendriks limited right-handers to a .251/.288/.368 line over 518 match-ups since 2011. How is it that he managed to sidestep right-handers in AAA easy-peasy but is obliterated once he arrives to the majors?
     
    One explanation as to why Hendriks may have an easier time retiring lefties over righties may have to do with his unique delivery and the challenges it presents. Hendriks has a closed delivery - which is that his front foot lands more towards the third base side and he throws across his body.
     
    When facing left-handed batters, he will pepper the outer-half of the strike zone and (far too often this season) just off the plate to entice those hitters to swing at pitches away. Meanwhile, if he wants to pitch right-handers away (or lefties inside for that matter) he must throw across his entire body to reach the far side of the plate:
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Hendriks_Landing.png

     
     
    Because he is throwing across his body and trying to hit the pitcher’s glove side of the zone, he has seen his command wane when trying to hit the far side of the plate. In last night’s start against the Kansas City Royals, catcher Drew Butera would frequently set up on the pitcher’s glove side of the plate and present a target. The majority of those offerings did not wind up at the intended destination. For example, in their fifth inning showdown, with two strikes on him, Butera scheduled a fastball down and in on the left-handed hitting Alex Gordon. Rather than hitting this spot, his fastball went up and away. Fortunately Gordon was unable to hold up for strike three.
     
    When it comes to right-handed hitters, Hendriks’ intentions appear to be to pepper the outer-half of their zone similar to lefties. Only the above scenario plays out leaving his pitches in a far too favorable of a spot for right-handed hitters:
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Hendriks_fastballrighties.jpg

     
     
    While his fastball has been hit pretty hard overall (.362/.412/.553) it is his slider, his most used secondary pitch, that has been bombed back to the Stone Age (.333/.349/.857). Seven of his 12 home runs allowed have come on this pitch (there is plenty of visual evidence of that). This should be his swing-and-miss pitch and yet it is getting destroyed – and part of that is related to his inability to pitch inside effectively.
     
    Whether it is game-planned or not, Hendriks has simply not shown opponents that he will throw the ball inside regularly – particularly to righties. For Hendriks, who is a fastball/slider pitcher to righties, this should be a critical element of his game. If he demonstrates that he is able to place his fastball on the inner-half, hitters will be forced to open their hips to respect that pitch which should enhance his slider that runs away from right-handers.
     
    Last year, in addressing this very subject, former major league pitcher Ron Darling said “That’s what gets a hitter to speed up his thought process. When he’s thinking ‘quick,’ that’s when you can get him out away. And, more important for a pitcher, it enables you to get away with the occasional mistake away because you’ve disrupted his timing just enough.”
     
    Hendriks has made plenty of mistakes away to righties this year but because he is not locating inside, right-handed hitters do not have to respect that portion of the zone and wind up leaning over the plate.
     
    As Terry Ryan insinuated after yesterday’s ballgame, Hendriks still have a lot to prove before he is considered a part of the 2013 rotation. Pitching inside effectively may be a part of that.
  13. Parker Hageman
    What happened to all that offense that showed up for the Cleveland series? Or pitching for that matter?
     
    After scoring 24 runs, averaging six per game against the Indians, the Will Smith and the Royals stop the Twins bats cold and Kansas City would, as Ron Gardenhire would say after the game, hit the fire out of the ball.
     
    The Twins offense was far from the productive group it has shown against Cleveland, and gave the Royals pitchers very little to sweat about.
     
    In the bottom of the fifth, down by four runs, the Twins mounted what would end up being their best assault on the Royals. With no one out, Darin Mastroianni and Eduardo Escobar drew back-to-back walks and put pressure on the rookie lefty Will Myers. Myers, to his credit, battled through the two free passes and struck out Pedro Florimon on a slider in the dirt.
     
    And then the Twins ran themselves out of opportunities.
     
    In the next at bat, Mastroianni broke for third only to be gunned down by Salvador Perez. Up until that point, Mastroianni had been successful in 19 of 21 attempts including eight-for-eight when swiping third – basically money in the bank. Perez, however, has a cannon of an arm behind the plate and had erased 10-of-28 would-be base stealers heading into Tuesday’s game.
     
    “You gotta make sure in those situations; you can’t get thrown out in those situations,” Gardenhire said after the game. The Twins manager would go on to rave about Perez’s handling of baserunners, noting the quick feet, quick release and sidearm style in which Perez throw out Mastroianni.
     
    Josh Willingham, who went 1-for-4 in Tuesday’s game, summarized what made the rookie Will Smith effective against the Twins lineup. “He didn’t walk too many, pitched ahead in the count, pitched to the corners and did all the good things a pitcher needs to do.”
     
    Meanwhile, Scott Diamond, who has now thrown a career high 148.1 innings, was roughed up a bit, leaving some pitches up and walking a season-high three batters.
     
    “He was OK,” Gardenhire remarked. “Got a lot of pitches up and didn’t bury the pitches like he normally does.”
     
    Diamond was dinged by some early defensive misplays by Josh Willingham in the second inning. Willingham, who took left field for the first time since September 1st, tentatively charged a looping fliner off the bat of Eric Hosmer which fell in for a single. One batter later, Lorenzo Cain got under one of Diamond’s change-ups high above the stadium’s light towers.
     
    Willingham immediately threw his hands up, acknowledging he did not see the fly ball. The ball landed ten feet behind him and allowed the two runners on to score and Cain to trot into third with a gimme triple.
     
    The Twins left fielder would shrug it off as a bad day at the office. “It’s frustrating when you can’t see the ball. I would like for that stuff not to happen.”
     
    Of course, the Royals would not need to assistance of a befuddled Twins defense all night. After all, the racked up another six extra base hits and would give the Target Field grounds crew the night off after they raked everywhere on the field. It would be the fifth time this year the Twins pitchers would allow 16 or more hits in a game – and the second time in the season the Royals would put up that many.
     
    Diamond would not blame the outing on the added time off between starts thanks to the expanded rotation.
     
    “I feel a little inconsistent right now,” Diamond said following his six inning, ten-hit, four-run outing. “I feel like my stuff is getting to where it needs to be but my fastball’s location is a little off; my command is just a little off. It’s something that you have to battle with.”
  16. Parker Hageman
    Concerns over Joe Mauer’s defense has grown exponentially as the number of opposing kleptomaniacs have continued to accumulate more and more bases.
     
    A one-time Florida State quarterback recruit, earlier in his career Mauer had thwarted over 30% of would-be base-stealers but has seen that number drop to league average as injuries and age have taken a toll on him. This year, however, that rate has dropped to a league-worst six percent – stopping just three runners with his own arm. What’s more is that the opposition’s appetite to motor on the basepaths has increased significantly too.
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/MauerRunningGame.jpg

     
    Prior to yesterday afternoon’s matinee against the Mariners, Associated Press reporter Jon Krawczynski relayed on Twitter that manager Ron Gardenhire said that Mauer’s caught stealing decline had nothing to do with his arm, rather the source of his struggles had to do with his slow slidestep when positioning for a throw down to second.
     
    Meanwhile 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey provided further details of what the manager was seeing in his All Star catcher:
     
     
    Reviewing the limited MLB.com archive video clips available of Mauer throwing down to second, there definitely is evidence of what Ron Gardenhire was speaking towards Mauer’s mechanics.
     
    The first clip is over Mauer attempting to throw out Maicer Izturis of the Angels. Liriano’s fastball is up in the zone and gives Mauer a good chance at nailing the trailing running in the double steal but the throw skips into center field when Alexi Casilla cannot handle the hop.
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_4_12_12.gif

     
    The next clip is Mauer throwing out Detroit’s Brennan Boesch – one of three times he has done so in 2012. Now, Boesch is not much of a base-stealing threat so it is possible that Mauer was caught flat-footed because of that but, just like in the clip above, Mauer is on his heels and stands straight up then pivots his feet.
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_7_2012.gif

     
    Now compare Mauer’s current form against a couple of examples from his past. This first clip is from 2010 in which Mauer nails the Royals’ Chris Getz in his attempted thievery. Note how he starts to slide his backside out before receiving the pitch, getting his body into the throwing position.
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_9_6_10.gif

     
    Similarly, in this 2008 matchup between the Twins and Padres, Mauer nabs Jody Gerut at second and slides his backfoot/backside into a position while receiving the ball rather than waiting on the ball to come to him before getting into the throwing position.
     

    http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer_2008.gif

     
    Essentially, Mauer’s footwork is costing him valuable nanoseconds and, quite likely, some mustard on his throws down to two as well. And opposing teams and their stopwatches and scouts are clearly picking up on this – which is why they are averaging nearly a stolen base attempt in each of his games behind the plate. That is a huge increase from his younger days.
     
    With no clear-cut explanation for why he has been tardy with his footwork, it is hard to determine how this affects this Twins. Obviously, the injury to his knee -- which may have played a role in a slow start at the plate this season -- may still be lingering. In that case, it could be a financial disaster for the Twins who are paying him to be an elite up-the-middle defender in addition to his offensive contributions. Then again, it could simply be the rust of having not played catcher as regularly. Either way, as Gardenhire said, it will be almost impossible to get this repaired in-season.
  20. Parker Hageman

    Twins Daily:

    By Parker Hageman,

    Word spread on Tuesday that Carl Pavano had been re-diagnosed with a bruise on his humerus bone. Pavano, who had made two appearances with the Fort Myers Miracle in hopes of rehabbing what was assumed to be a strained shoulder, told reporters that he’s frustrated that it took several months to get the diagnosis correct but is happy that it does not require surgery to heal. Considering it will take rest and that September is fast approaching, the likelihood Pavano is seen again in a Twins uniform in 2012 is almost non-existent.



    The Star Tribune’s La Velle Neal writes that the Twins medical staff should be exonerated in the case of Pavano’s missed diagnosis. The staff teamed with specialist Dr. David Altchek, who agreed with the original diagnosis of the strained shoulder capsule, conferred with the team’s doctors thorough his rehab and saw every MRI the Twins performed on Pavano.


    Said Assistant GM Rob Antony:

    Speaking of injured pitchers, Pedro Henandez, one of two players acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade, left Tuesday night’s game one batter into the third inning. Through his four starts in the Twins organization, Hernandez has thrown 17.1 innings and posted an 11-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio with opponents hitting .342 off of him.

     
     
     

    The Twins will be summoning pitcher Liam Hendriks from Rochester for the third time this season. Hendriks’ performance between the two levels could not be any more night and day. In his 8 games with the Twins this year, he’s 0-5 with a 7.04 ERA in 38.1 innings. In Rochester, he’s made 16 starts and is 9-3 with an International League-leading 2.20 ERA in 106.1 innings pitched. So what’s the biggest difference? It’s a variety of things, Hendriks explains in his interview with MinorLeagueBall.com’s John Sickels.



    One glaring statistical difference is that Hendriks has not allowed the ball to leave the park in AAA in comparison to his big league stints. While in Rochester, just 3% of fly balls have become home runs whereas 12% of flies with Minnesota have resulted in dingers.
     
     

    Twins second basemen are hitting .213/.270/.272 (542 OPS) collectively this year -- well below the baseball standard for the position of .254/.317/.380 (697 OPS) -- yet Ron Gardenhire is not willing to give Darin Mastroianni a trial at the keystone.



    Gardy told the PiPress’s John Shipley:

     

    Twins reliever Alex Burnett is the only qualified reliever in baseball to have more walks (23) than strikeouts (22) yet, somehow, he manages to have a respectable stat line including a 3.11 ERA – thanks in part to a 74.5% left-on-base rate and a .249 batting average on balls in play. Interestingly, just five of Burnett’s 62 fly balls allowed have become hits (.082 batting average vs .228 AL fly ball average) helping suppress that batting average on balls in play.

     

    Twins PR man, Dustin Morse, tweeted out that Ben Revere is just one stolen base shy of stealing 30 bags in consecutive seasons. If-slash-when Revere nabs his 30th of the year he will join Cesar Tovar, Rod Carew and Chuck Knoblauch as the only Twins to have accomplished that feat.

     

    Following an 0-for-3 night at the plate – in which one plate appearance included banging into a triple play – Trevor Plouffe is now 2-for-29 (.068).

     

    Even though he took the loss, Cole Devries left Tuesday’s game relatively unscathed considering his 2.24 home runs per nine innings was the highest rate among those with a minimum of 60 innings pitched this year. Of course, working in the O.co Coliseum whose three-year park factor for home runs is 80 (very pitcher-friendly), it takes some hard work to give up bombs in Oakland at night.

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