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Download attachment: Fracas-on-the-Field.jpg Come out to the ballpark on Saturday, August 11th for a 6 PM game and enjoy a high level of baseball discourse with the opportunity to interact with fellow fans and the front office of the Minnesota Twins. Prior to Saturday’s game, relax in the Owner’s Boardroom among 40 or so of your closest newfound friends and pepper the front office with topical inquiries such as “Y u no sign Prince Fielder?” and “What does Brian Dozier smell like?” (Note: You are not allowed to ask about the J.J. Hardy trade as it is still too fresh in Nick Nelson’s mind. Please do not re-open that wound.) [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Afterward, head down to your seat in the left field bleachers and watch the Twins play competitively against the Tampa Bay Rays. Once there, you will enjoy: Your own personal seat!Amazing views of the field!An opportunity to have a Josh Willingham home run ball bounce off your hands!Access to purchase unlimited quantities of beer for six and two-thirds glorious innings!Conveniently located restrooms in the concourse!Listening to John Bonnes laugh in real life!So, in summary, for a low, low payment of $45, you will receive: One (1) ticket in the Left Field Bleachers to the 6 PM Saturday, August 11th game against the Tampa Bay Rays. One (1) admission to the pre-game private Q & A session held in the Owner’s Boardroom at Target Field with a front office member(s) who will field your burning questions on the team. One (1) unforgettable evening shared with the Twins Daily crew and community. Supplies are limited so act now and reserve your seat! http://www.e-junkie.com/ej/x-click-butcc.gif _________________________ http://www.e-junkie.com/ej/x-click-but22.gif http://www.e-junkie.com/ej/view_cart.gif Click here to view the article
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Download attachment: Man_1572-575x545.jpg The Twins announced today at their media luncheon that former second baseman Chuck Knoblauch has been elected to the Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame. Knoblauch, the 1991 American League Rookie of the Year, and was instrumental in the team's World Series run that season. Over his Twins career he hit .304/.391/.416 in 1,013 games and represented the team four times in the All-Star game (1992, 1994, 1996 and 1997). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]In 1994 he led the league in doubles (45), triples in 1996 (14) and his 140 runs scored in 1996 was the highest ever in a single-season by a Twins player. With the glove, he played outstanding defense, leading the league in Total Zone Runs in 1992 (8) and 1997 (17) and winning one Gold Glove. His 1996 season in which he posted 8.6 wins above replacement (via baseball-reference.com) still stands as the Twins' second best season as measured by that statistic (Rod Carew's 1977 season was the highest). His .391 on-base percentage is the fifth highest in the franchise history and third highest since the move to Minnesota. Of course, his public demands for a trade soured the fans on his overall talent and the eventual move to the New York Yankees further widened that chasm. The trade netted the Twins Eric Milton, Cristian Guzman and Brian Buchanan and Danny Mota but the likes of Ricky Ladee and Ramiro Mendoza were discussed prior to that. While in New York, Knoblauch was a part of three championship teams (1998, 1999 and 2000) but throwing issues from second necessitated a move to DH before relocating to third base. When he came back to the Metrodome he was booed loudly. In an infamous event, fans started throwing Dome Dogs and batteries while he was in left field. As you recall, Tom Kelly walked out to left field and scolded the Twins fans. After playing with the Yankees and the Royals, Knoblauch fell on some hard times after the game abandoned him. Regardless of his personal traits, Knoblauch's contributions to the game on the field make him deserving of the team's highest honor. (Seth Stohs contributed to this article) Click here to view the article
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On Monday, the Star Tribune’s Patrick Reusse recounted the tale of Sean Burroughs, a recent Twins minor league signing this winter, whose life was derailed by drinking and drugs in his twenties. In his first four seasons of professional ball in the Padres organization, Burroughs hit a remarkable .324/418/.453 in 1,653 plate appearances. Baseball America anointed him the seventh best prospect in 2000 then the sixth best in 2001 and finally the fourth best in 2002. He was the proverbial “can’t miss” prospect. Unfortunately, he missed. From 2003 to 2005, Burroughs hit .283/.343/.366 with the Padres. While in a different era his batting average may have been lauded, in the modern era that puts emphasis on reaching base AND hitting for power, Burroughs’ stock tumbled in San Diego. People began to wonder where the power - the one that baseball minds predicted he would eventually develop - was. Midway through 2005, the Friars traded for Joe Randa, who was having a solid season in Cincinnati at an extremely hitter-friendly ballpark. This was the beginning of the end for Burroughs in San Diego. Never mind that upon reaching the west coast and Petco Park Randa’s numbers tumbled to .256/.303/.395 – hardly an improvement over what Burroughs was providing them – but Burroughs’s off-field shenanigans likely accelerated his exit. According to an article by MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch, Burroughs’ attention turned to partying that season: The Padres would trade Burroughs to Tampa in exchange for another failed prospect in Dewan Brazelton but Burroughs would flounder in Florida as well. In 25 games for the Devil Rays, he hit .190/.320/.238 and earned a release in August. This begat a trail run with the Mariners the following season that lasted until June. After that, Burroughs disconnected from the world in Las Vegas, accumulating war stories which he claims would make Josh Hamilton blush. The 30-year-old Burroughs cleaned himself up and earned a spot into the Diamondbacks system. While in AAA Reno last year, he produced well in 110 plate appearances, hitting .412/.450/.618. Impressed, Arizona buoyed him between the big club and their top affiliate, chiefly using him as a pinch hitter off the bench (58 of his 115 plate appearances can off the bench). In that limited time at the big league level, Baseball America’s one-time number four overall prospect hit .273/.289/.336 with five extra base hits. While he’s a fantastic feel-good story worth of a Disney biopic, what are the odds we’ll see Burroughs at Target Field in 2012? Based on his track record, it might be fairly decent. In 2011, Danny Valencia was one of the worst rated defensive third basemen according to Baseball Info Solution’s Plus/Minus rating system (30 in MLB). Meanwhile, Burroughs has been a top defender in the game as recently as 2005. Yes, six years added to his odometer may have slowed him down some, but there are odds that his prowess still exists: Download attachment: Burroughs_PlusMinus.jpg Furthermore, where the right-handed hitting third base incumbent has been thwarted by same-sided nemesis (a career .283 OBP against RHP), Burroughs’s little major league success is predicated on him being able to reach base against righties (.350 career OBP against RHP). If added to the roster, he provides a solid platoon option. What’s interesting about Burroughs’s approach at the plate is that the left-hander has an inside-out swing, one that produces numerous opposite field and up-the-middle hits. Download attachment: Burroughs_AZHitChart.jpg As you can see from Inside Edge’s hit chart from last year, Burroughs thrives at taking inside pitches the other way – a method that provides a high average but little power. Here is a video clip that exemplifies this swing: http://mlb.mlb.com/video/play.jsp?content_id=19614437&topic_id=&c_id=mlb&tc id=vpp_copy_19614437&v=3[/media] This resulted in Burroughs hitting .565 on balls hit to left while hitting just .143 when pulling the ball in 2011. Although many baseball people thought Burroughs’s power would eventually develop, it is more likely that his approach would never allow for a great deal of home runs – much like a certain Minnesota catcher (with the exception of one season). Because of his keen batting eye and ability to get base hits by using left and center fields, Burroughs maintained an average of .317 and an on-base percentage of .400 in the minors. While playing in the Venezuelan Winter League this winter, Burroughs continued by hitting .316 and posting a .396 on-base percentage in 136 at-bats. It is possible that given the opportunity to hit in more favorable situations against right-handed pitchers, he could potentially put up similar numbers. If Valencia cannot improve on his defense and his struggle against right-handed pitching persists, don’t be surprised to see Burroughs in Minnesota. At the very least, Burroughs can be a Rochester reminder for the current starter – hopefully pushing him to improve his game. Click here to view the article
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A year ago Josmil Pinto wasn’t on anyone’s prospect list. Baseball America. Baseball Prospectus. Seth Stohs. None of these minor league mavens saw Pinto coming in 2013. The kid was so far off the radar you’d figure he had drowned in tobacco juice (which has been known to happen in Wisconsin) somewhere in Beloit . And yet, one year later, here he is, number seven with a bullet on our prospect list. What happened? How did everyone miss so badly? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Download attachment: top-prospects-07-josmil-pinto.jpg Part of it is the nature of the prospecting game, to be sure. People can overrate guys for certain elements of their game...like former prospect Joe Benson, for example. Once upon a time he was a Top 10 guy every year because he was the toolsiest tool to ever tool. He had everything: The body, the athleticism, the hair (oh, the hair). In the end, the tools were not able to translate into big league success. Not yet, anyhow. Meanwhile, a guy like Pinto who has a frumpy body, an unorthodox swing and is a bigger liability behind the plate than a competitive eater with lockjaw... well, sometimes those guys keep improving or keep hitting. The Rise In November 2012, the Twins added the 24-year-old catcher to their 40-man roster, a consortium of ballplayers that was already littered with catchers. The move was originally heralded as curious. In their preseason annual, Baseball Prospectus considered his inclusion a “somewhat surprising addition” to the Twins’ group. After all, he had but 52 plate appearances in AA New Britain under his belt. Despite a .295/.362/.482 line in 2012 while playing a position that places emphasis on defense, Baseball America omitted him from the Twins’ Top 10 list. As did Baseball Prospectus. (Of course, a lot of that can be attributed to the growing depth of prospect talent in the team’s farm system.) Even though he demonstrated a good deal of power in the offense-stifling Florida State League, Pinto’s age (24) at the start of the 2013 season, his injury history, his non-jeans model body and his oft questioned defense likely earned him demerits in the rankings. Last year in spring training, the 24-year-old catcher began to catch a few eyes as well. Manager Ron Gardenhire professed intrigue in the Venezuelan while prospector John Sickels noted that Pinto has slimmed down some, making the knock on his body shape less of a factor in his projection. Then he just kept hitting and moving. First it was New Britain, where he earned an All-Star berth, followed by a brief stint in Rochester and then having his season culminate with a summons from the big club in September. Pinto’s September call-up was preceded by Joe Mauer’s season-ending injury and that allowed him to play almost full-time behind the plate and to hit every day. And hit he did. With the exception of Chris Parmelee’s 2011, Pinto’s 2013 season was the best offensive performance by a Twins’ call-up in a long while. While that is a good sign, much like with Parmelee, the results in the small sampling do not dictate future output. Why He Might Struggle Teams have little time to prepare game plans to attack call-ups' weaknesses and often are left challenging them with fastballs. In his time with the Twins, Pinto saw almost 60% fastballs -- a very high percentage in comparison with the league average. With his high leg kick, Pinto may prove to be more susceptible to offspeed and breaking pitches or simply have his timing thrown off when he faces a greater variety of pitches. With the equipment on, Pinto did not prove to be as much of a liability as previously advertised. In fact, after not throwing out any of five runners in spring training, Pinto, in September, nailed five of 11 would-be base-stealers while not allowing a passed ball (there were nine wild pitches credited to the pitchers). Still, this did not stop general manager Terry Ryan from voicing caution when it came to assessing his overall catching abilities. This winter Ryan told Twins Daily that the team viewed Pinto’s September as good, not great. Why He Will Succeed While a wider array of pitch types might provide a kink in his development, he has hit at almost every level. Unlike some prospects who need a period of adjustment, Pinto has hit the ground running. Last year, one area of his game that saw improvement was his plate discipline: he saw an increase in walk rates despite playing at higher levels -- perhaps a sign that he will be able to have success against different pitches. Having already mentioned that his significant leg kick might be a detriment, it is also a solid timing mechanism that helps him perform well against both hard and soft offerings. Examining his spray chart, you can see that for hard offerings (fastballs, sliders, etc), he stays middle-away. On the other hand, for slower offerings (changeups, curves, etc), he pull them. Some hitters get caught cheating to pull the fastball and find themselves too far out in front to adjust to offspeed (Ryan Doumit comes to mind). Pinto does not do this. Download attachment: Hit Chart.png What’s Next Pinto can hit, we know this. The Twins want to see more from him defensively in order to give him the position full-time. His white-hot September aside, he probably could use a few more ABs and defensive refinement at Rochester before taking over the job. Click here to view the article
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Download attachment: NYY_Twins.jpg The 7-3 victory over the New York Yankees on Monday night was one that helped knock the collective monkey off of their backs for the Minnesota Twins. After all, Yankee Stadium – be it the original or this new theme park – has long given the Twins fits. Individually, too, Twins players shrugged off the load that had been weighing them down to lead to the third win of the season. Carl Pavano, who became a pariah in the five boroughs after his disabled tenure with the Yankees, proved that he’s advanced beyond simply being a punch line. Sure, he allowed back-to-back home runs to start the game and quickly coughed up the 2-0 lead the Twins provided him, yet he remained calm and hit his spots – specifically that spot two-and-a-half inches off of the plate that umpire Gerry Davis was giving him. He worked in a devastating change-up that he buried on his opponents, getting them to miss on seven of the 26 he threw. After a series against Texas in which he went 1-for-12 with five strikeouts, people were starting to get restless about Justin Morneau’s recovery. Offensively, he looked overmatched and, as Nick Nelson examined, his plate discipline numbers were the truly worrisome part. A year ago, one of Morneau’s biggest problems was pulling open off the pitch and leaving the outer half of the plate wide open for opposing pitchers. Nevertheless, positioned at first base tonight, Morneau appeared much more dialed in following his first at bat. In his third trip to the plate, Morneau timed a Freddy Garcia “fastball” perfectly and launched a shot into the Yankees’ bullpen area. After the game, Morneau told FSN’s Robby Incmikoski that following his first plate appearance of the night, he told himself to consciously wait back. Coming into Monday night’s game, Joe Mauer was holding a ground ball rate over 60%. That tape measure shot he sent into the stands against the Angels seemed like a distance memory as the Rangers kept the Twins catcher from doing much elevating. He finished the last series going 2-for-10 while grounding into two double plays – bringing his season total of twin killings to MLB-leading four. Answering some of his critics, Mauer smacked a double to left in the first and followed that up with a double to right in the fifth inning. Danny Valencia, who had been chastised by his manager in 2011 for failing to take the ball the other way, came up in the eighth inning with the Twins holding a decent but never comfortable two-run lead in the Bronx. In addition to becoming too pull happy a year ago, Valencia’s weakness against right-handed pitching was also exposed. On the first pitch from the right-handed reliever Corey Wade – a slider running away from the zone, no less – Valencia stayed back and laced the ball into the right-center field gap, scoring Ryan Doumit from first and gave the Twins some more breathing room. All in all, it was certainly a confidence building win for the Minnesota Twins and has set a good tone for the rest of the four game series in New York. Click here to view the article
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Download attachment: Dozier.jpg At the end of May, Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier was batting a sad .214/.259/.299 and providing little reassurance that he would be able to consistently hit major league pitching. Since then, however, Dozier has been on fire offensively and has posted a robust .254/.340/.492 line with 10 home runs in his last 270 plate appearances. This turnaround has been amazing for Dozier, but it has not been entirely unexpected. In the spring, Dozier showcased new mechanics [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] that should have helped create a more firm platform out on his front foot as well allow him to open up his hip to better. Once the season started however his production remained static. Hitting coach Tom Brunansky is familiar with Dozier after working with him for several seasons in the minor leagues and tinkering with his swing. Brunansky admitted earlier in the season that his approach is about getting hitters to have a feel for the swing rather than replicate something visually. Dozier’s problem, Brunansky diagnosed, was his timing. So, as 1500ESPN.com’s Brandon Warne found out from Dozier and Brunansky recently, the second baseman began plotting on ways to improve his timing at the end of May: In layman’s terms, Dozier was starting his swing way too late. This means that his lower-half was beginning late with the pitcher’s rhythm and that his path to the pitch was going to be tardy. In spite of having a solid base, Dozier’s swing was well behind of where he needed to be. Dozier himself admitted he found that he was behind several fastball in May that he should have been able handle. Although Dozier speaks towards the point of the foot strike, his timing was thrown off earlier than that – when he first would begin his swing at the foot lift: Download attachment: Dozier_LiftComp.jpg While facing this low-90s fastballs from left-handed pitchers, we see that Dozier’s front foot lift begins much later in May (LEFT) than it in August (RIGHT). In the first instance, Dozier received a fastball middle-up and instead of pulling the ball, his timing is behind and he fights it off towards the right-center field gap. The next images are of his foot strike – the point where his front foot lands in his strike. Take notice where each pitch is in the examples. In May, the pitch is already on him. In August, the pitch has just been delivered. The latter gives him ample opportunity to read the ball and react instead of fighting off pitches. Download attachment: Dozier_PlantComp.jpg The same trend can be found for Dozier versus right-handed pitchers as well. In this example of earlier season versus late season, we see the same pattern – Dozier is beginning his swing much later. Download attachment: Dozier_PlantComp2.jpg Why is Dozier’s timing a huge issue? For starters, it means a better command of the strike zone as it gives him a longer (relative) look at each pitch. No longer does Dozier have troubles with in zone fastballs as his bat does not drag through the zone late. Now he’s driving balls all over the zone, particularly on the inner-half. Notice in this heat map below that prior the end of May (LEFT), Dozier was struggling to do anything with pitches inside the strike zone. After May (RIGHT) Dozier was doing damage on those same pitches and was turning on those thrown inside (a location he struggled to do anything with prior to June). Since his and Brunansky’s work, that area of the strike zone has been one in which he has been most productive. Download attachment: Dozier_ZONECOMP.jpg (NOTE: Heat maps are views from catcher/umpire perspective.) While Dozier’s heat map shows how well he’s done at the plate, but his spray chart shows how well he’s succeeding after the ball has been put into play. Advertised as a pull-ball hitter in the minor leagues, Dozier has not fulfilled that potential at the big league level. It is easy to conclude that part of what was impeding him has been his timing issue. As you can see in his spray chart below, prior to May (LEFT) Dozier did not hit much down the line. After making changes to his timing mechanism, Dozier’s ability to pull the ball greatly increased. Here you see that the bulk of his hits since June 1 came down the left field line: Download attachment: Dozier_SPRAYCOMP.PNG Clearly, a vast majority of his hits have gone to the left side as he exhibited a significant amount of power to boot. Combined with his stellar defense, Dozier’s offensive turnaround as made him one of the team’s top contributors at a position that has become increasingly more offense-oriented in recent years. It may seem like a completely subtle change, but timing – even fractions or fractions or seconds – can be vital to a player’s swing. Credit both Dozier as well as Brunansky for this surge. Click here to view the article
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Download attachment: USATSI_7927097.jpg This Joe Mauer vitriol has gotten out of hand. Fans and media members alike are taking shots at him over his lack of production at the conclusion of just the season's second month of play. Sure, his power outage, run production and shortage of key hits has been the source of much consternation -- particularly in the last stretch when the team has dropped six of their last seven games. Did you hear that the Twin Cities will have a new Joe Mauer-themed Uber cabs running in celebration of the All-Star Game? For $23 million they will take you wherever you want but they can’t drive you home. See? I mean, how sick is that? Even I am not immune from the growing mob madness. As a statistically-based individual, I realize that the run batted in stat is contingent on runners being on base in front of a hitter. I also know that batting second in a lineup often means you will be in fewer situations to drive runners in (even more so when your leadoff hitter insists on hitting a bunch of solo dingers). As a scouting-based individual, I appreciate his sweet swing and timeless patience at the plate. Still, Mauer’s production with runners in scoring position this season has been completely out of whack by his standards -- his lowly .189 batting average with runners in scoring position pales in comparison to his .327 average in those same situations from 2009 to 2013. If his offensive woes were isolated to just situational hitting, it would be easier to dismiss as a product of small sampling but other issues have been plaguing him -- like his two-strike hitting (.208 average), performance against left-handed pitching (.224) or lack of power (.352 slugging percentage) -- and have increased the concern that there are other factors at play: like lingering concussion effects, lower back pain or something else. The Minnesota Twins, meanwhile, think there is less of a physical ailment but rather the masterful placement of the opposition’s defense. As Twins broadcaster Dick Bremer told KFAN’s Paul Allen on Wednesday morning, the belief in the organization is that teams have figured out a way to combat Mauer’s opposite field tendencies which is wreaking havoc on his offensive numbers. “I think he more than any other Twins hitter has been victimized by the shifts,” Bremer told Allen. “When we talk about the shifts in the booth, we automatically show the infield and they are doing a lot of creative things in the infield but Joe’s really been victimized by the outfield shifts. And I think what we’ve seen -- and Ron Gardenhire confirmed it the other day -- Joe is trying now, and succeeding to some degree, pulling the ball more. Because he’s hit a lot of line drives to left field and he’s probably had eight doubles taken away from him with the left fielder basically playing in the left field corner.” Prior to Thursday’s game, Gardenhire shared his thoughts on Mauer’s struggles with the media that echoed Bremer’s take. “He’s hitting a lot of balls hard,” the Twins manager told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. “The way they’re playing him and pitching him If he were in Boston, he’d be hitting .400. I mean, how many rockets he’s hit out to left field, deep. He’d be pounding that wall. But he’s not in Boston, and they’re playing him oppo. He’s ripping balls that way, and you just go through it. I don’t know if you start counting all the balls that this guy hits on the button. I can promise you it’s as many as anybody in the league. He hits it on the barrel of the bat.” Yes -- alert the media -- a higher percentage of Mauer’s power comes from drilling the ball into left field. Last year, 21 of his 35 doubles were deposited to left. This year his doubles are way down and plenty of that has to do with the outfield shift. Mauer’s ability to lift and/or drive the ball in the air the other way has been effectively eliminated by the opposition’s defensive schemes. It is no secret that after numerous years that the face of the Twins has a penchant for going the other way at a high percentage. From 2010 to 2013, if Mauer hit the ball in the sky, 54% of the time it was to left field. It was that direction where he accumulated the lion’s share of his extra base hits. On the other hand, Mauer pulled the ball in the air just 13% of the time, making the right fielder’s job essentially one that fielded the ground ball that slipped through the infield. So it would stand to reason that teams who have even a basic understanding of spray charts would shade their outfielders to the left field line, having the left fielder stand on the chalk, the center field move over to a spot between the second base bag and the shortstop position, and have the right fielder camped out in the right-center gap. This would leave real estate the size of the airport unguarded on the right side -- just like the alignment the Tampa Bay Rays deployed on April 23 that the Star Tribune’s LaVelle Neal captured: https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/fRuyADx-Ecv2uU2kQsijjHkWuZqqE9CaRxZHXjhtvWu7YUBtvN3FGFnyC_J91OaC2xImGJ9np5l5dadPr0J78iEs6liYPWACZxkBGQklPVs1AZkp7aWrmEZRGy14bFpwNQ All it would take would be a little flare or dink over the first baseman’s head to net Mauer an inside-the-park home run. Of course, since 2010 Mauer has elevated just 55 pitches (7.2% of his liners/flies) that have gone into the far right quadrant of the field, meaning that land is safer than Canada. While the Rays are one of the more forward-thinking teams when it comes to defensive positioning, other teams are following suit more often when facing Mauer. In addition to the shifting, teams have tailored their approach to pitching him away more frequently, almost taunting him to play right into their hands. What is telling is how many line drive hits this has taken away from Mauer this year. According to ESPN Stats & Info, between 2009 and 2013 Mauer had an .803 average on line drives to the outfield (.744 when going to left field). This year that rate has tumbled to .579 (.450 when going the other way). Visually you can see the stark difference in the outs made on his spray chart: https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Y95r2jE7bzxyMS4PcjYMM8Kw40OpDPJIuycyC0QULQoQ7CQRyztFjjRABjI2MFQ8MNT-ey2TXfBhXctFmrfISQboPanYSKh-uS-5gjUTubHF6vJBhHZvGd2Wf2pudN-rpw Notice how the outs on the left (2014) are closer to the left field line? Those hard hit balls would be difficult to catch if a left fielder was playing in a straight-up formation. In this last series, the Texas Rangers tried the same positioning. Rather than Yu Darvish on the mound however, the Rangers trotted former Twins pitcher Scott Baker to start. Baker’s stuff is not nearly as good as Darvish’s so when the former teammates squared off, Mauer was able to turn around an 88 mile per hour fastball on the inner-half into that right field corner where no one was home. https://lh4.googleusercontent.com/iezQsqGhB_DCx9xf6BIF8V2hiCMadiZZVfyENb05_5HO6KVlQzqFTrUrsoCrsfF9Fed7AYZqTz6kb8zKS-vT7rw8Q85XOg3l104TquswBF-CZUWXmFJritVDlvt39l_40w That marked just the 10th hit for Mauer to right field and just the 15th ball he has hit in that direction this season. To Bremer and Gardenhire’s point that Mauer is trying to pull the ball more frequently, there has been a slight uptick in that department but nothing of huge significance. Prior to the beginning of last week’s West Coast road trip, Mauer had pulled 21.7% of the balls he put into play. Since then, he has increased that rate to 34.5%. The issue of pulling the ball more will not likely lead to more hits unless the opposition supplies him with pitches on the inner-half. Since 2009, when Mauer has pulled the ball, 78% of the time it has been on the ground. In this case, opponents are peppering him with pitches down-and-away in an effort to get him to play into their outfield shift. When he has tried to pull something on the outer-half of the plate, he is almost assured a grounder to second (on which he is 1-for-23 this year). So who knows where the season goes for Joe Mauer from here. He’s as mechanically smooth as they come and, if he is not hiding any cracked vertebrae or whatever, he should be healthy as an ox and able to make the necessary adjustments at the plate -- make sure to turn on pitches on the inner-half, drive the ball up the middle more frequently and capitalize on mistakes in general. Several week of doing that should open up left field for him again. Stay tuned. (Data from ESPN Stats & Info) Click here to view the article
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Sponsored by Ticket King [/hr]Among many in baseball circles, the Houston Astros organization may be considered the Smartest Team In The Room™. Their front office is loaded with brainiacs. They have field staff who carry out the philosophy from the lowest levels to the majors. They even have broadcast teams who attempt to advance the mission statement on TV and radio, but that is mostly to fans who are left wondering why the team is not winning. The Astros have a five-year plan to improve the team and losing is an acknowledged residual effect of that overhaul. And, though in last place in the AL West, there are some signs of improvement -- after all, they are not the worst team in baseball. The Rays, Cubs and Diamondbacks have worse records than the Astros. Obviously it is hard to throw stones while in last place in the AL Central, mind you, but if you are a Twins fan looking for tickets and a win, you have to feel good about the odds of walking away with a series win. Download attachment: USATSI_7934732.jpg Failure To Launch In 2010, the Astros boasted a payroll of $92 million. Two seasons later, they pared the budget and fielded a team that earned a collective $22 million. It wasn’t a fire sale. It was a plan. The directive from ownership was to go young. The year prior, former Cardinals draft guru Jeff Luhnow was hired away from St. Louis and he revamped the player selection and player development process in Houston. The roster went from being in the late-20s and early-30s to the mid-20s -- since then the youngest (and least expensive) in the game. Along with Luhnow’s five-year plan to make the team more sustainable, the Astros sustained numerous losses. Two-hundred and fifty-three since 2012 to be exact. Of course, mixed into to the squad has been some intriguing talent that has the potential to form the nucleus of the championship team the Astros envision. The five-foot-six second baseman Jose Altuve is leading the American League in hits (80) and stolen bases (20). Outfielder George Springer (10) is only trailing the White Sox’s Jose Abreu (17) in home runs by a rookie. First base prospect Jon Singleton recently signed a five-year contract -- with options that could make it eight years -- despite not having played a single game in the bigs. On the mound, Dallas Keuchel, who the Twins will face on Friday, leads all pitchers in ground ball creation at 66.5%. While not yet a competitive team per se, this team has plenty of players of interest to follow. The Match-Ups Friday: Dallas Kuechel vs. Phil Hughes @ 7:10 PM Are you a fan of pitchers’ duels? Two-to-one ballgames? If so, this is the game for you. The best pitching matchup of the series will be conducted with two wildly different pitching styles but both contestants rely on the fastball. Kuechel is a lefty who doesn’t throw hard (maxes out at 92 miles per hour) but has been difficult for hitters to elevate. Hughes, on the other hand, throws his heat over 95 at times and because he throws it up in the zone, it is rarely put on the ground. Despite these differences, they have both been successful: Since April 30 Hughes is the owner of a 1.74 ERA while Kuechel has an equally impressive 2.14 mark. Saturday: Scott Feldman vs. Kyle Gibson @ 1:10 PM Not a fan of pitchers striking batters out? Good. Here’s the game for you. Both Feldman and Gibson have been very democratic when it comes to sharing the ball with teammates. Feldman is the owner of the league’s worst 4.25 K/9 while Gibson is separated by just Seattle’s Chris Young at 4.35 K/9. In Feldman’s case, his curveball has not inciting the same number of swing-and-misses it once did. Gibson, however, has struggled to advance the count to two-strikes, as the majority of his opponents have put the ball into play before that pitcher’s count. Over his last three starts, Feldman has worked 15.3 innings and allowed 28 hits leading to 14 earned runs. Expect the Twins offense to come out swinging against Houston’s right-hander. Sunday: Collin McHugh vs. Samuel Deduno @ 1:10 PM This one is the matchup of the guys who were not wanted by their previous organizations. Deduno went through multiple organization and even the Twins exposed him to all the other teams, who all passed. Since returning to the rotation in May, Deduno has made six starts and has gone 2-2 with a 4.36 ERA. Whereas the fastball was his weapon last year, his curveball has become equally impressive now that he has been able to keep in down in the zone. For Houston, McHugh started in the Mets organization and then was traded to the Rockies who waived him this past December. Picked up by the Astros, the 27-year-old has thrown 50 innings and struck out 54 while flashing a vicious curveball with Bugs Bunny-like bend. The pitch carries a 17% swinging strike rate. Trevor Plouffe has been very susceptible when it comes to the curve this year -- he is just 1-for-12 with 7 strikeouts versus curves. [/hr]For Friday’s projected pitchers’ duel, seats in the infield area are recommended to see the detail in their work. Saturday’s game should feature more offense (and a bit of rain) so find a good ticket in the left field bleachers. On Sunday, bring the family and have the kids run the bases after the game. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier,Ticket King, can help. Click here to view the article
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On Tuesday night, in a 8-4 loss to the Detroit Tigers, Ben Revere went two-for-five on the night and had his average settle in at .317 – one one-thousandth of a point behind teammate and three-time American League batting champion Joe Mauer. This average was a far cry from his numbers last year when on this same day he was hitting a paltry .245. After being sent to Rochester in the early part of 2012, Revere worked with Red Wings hitting coach Tom Brunansky to get his swing back to the one which was producing consistent .300 averages over his minor league career. Together they found one small difference in his major league and minor league swing. In a recent conversation with Fangraphs.com’s David Laurila, Revere explained what he had changed in order to gain these statistical improvements: Here is a side-by-side comparison of Revere 2011 stance and his 2012 stance. Notice how Revere’s hand placement is not necessarily higher but it is more perpendicular to the ground. Certainly the bottom hand is in a more elevated position in 2012 versus the 2011 edition: Download attachment: Ben Revere_Hands.jpg What about Revere’s claims that the new positioning has helped him handle the inside pitch better? Last year he labored against pitches on the inner half of the plate. According to Inside Edge’s data Revere had a .036 well-hit ball average on those thrown inside in 2011 which was the third lowest in all of baseball. Because of that he posted a .389 OPS when pulling the ball – the worst mark in the MLB. This season however, Revere has put the ball into play at a much better rate – even on pitches being thrown closer to him. By Inside Edge’s numbers Revere is now posting a .169 well-hit average on pitches inside. And – while it is not a Josh Willingham-sian figure, mind you – he has a .620 OPS when turning on a pitch. Download attachment: Ben Revere Inside.jpg An inch. Maybe a couple. That’s it. That’s offensively. What about in the outfield where he covers many more inches than the rest of his right field brethren? Inside Edge has also added defensive data to their repertoire. Unlike Ultimate Zone Rating or Plus/Minus which bases their numbers on a grid-like pattern on the field, Inside Edge’s data is pure scouting. They gauge plays made or missed for outfielders in several buckets for potential for making the play – Almost Certain, Likely, Even Chance, Unlikely and Remote. An Almost Certain is essentially a can-of-corn fly ball hit right at a player while a Remote play looks a lot like this one. Across the board, Revere is currently the best-in-class among right fielders in 2012: Download attachment: Right Fielder Rankings.jpg Although his defensive prowess was never truly in question, Revere has transformed from a player whom many figured to be an offensive liability to one who can hit his way on base regularly. He is proving that he can be a vital component of this Twins lineup – inch by inch. Click here to view the article
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Download attachment: MN-TWINS-14.jpg Joe Mauer hit just one infield fly ball all year making his 1.0% infield fly rate the second lowest in all of baseball. That’s a significant increase over his totals last year when he did not hit a single fly ball to anyone in the infield. See, there is still plenty of reason to boo him. Mauer is often credited with having the perfect swing, and the fact that he is not popping pitches up to the second baseman is telling how square he hits the ball. That said Twins fans rarely saw this elusive perfect swing this year as his 35.4% swing rate was the lowest in baseball (compared to the 46% league average). Once again, Mauer's first-pitch swing was the lowest in baseball as he offered at just 8% of total first pitches thrown to him. With that reputation, rumor has it that Hollywood is tapping Mauer to star in the latest action movie sequel,Taken 3: The First Pitch. 32 times this year Denard Span was on second base when a double was hit – the most in baseball. I don’t know what it means but it is provocative. Speaking of Span, because he was caught looking in a baseball-high 48% of his strikeouts, he receives baseball’s 2012 Voyeurism Award for liking to watch so much. (Oh, yeah. You're such a dirty curve on the outer-half of the plate. Oh you filthy backdoor slider...) Josh Willingham had an incredible power year for the Twins – dropping 35 dingers on the crowd. That’s more than anyone in one season in a Twins uniform not named “Killebrew”. But, with great power comes great responsibility…and then some strikeouts. The Hammer came perilously close to breaking another dubious honor: At 141 strikeouts on the year, he was just five shy of overtaking Bobby Darwin as the Twins’ single-season strikeout king. Darwin had set that mark of 145 in 1972. Willingham is probably voting for Mitt Romney this election because, like Romney, he too enjoyed destroying lefties: his 15 home runs were tied with Chicago’s Adam Dunn for the most off of wrong-handed pitchers. Even though Willingham had the highest total, it was Justin Morneau who put on the display. According to HitTrackerOnline.com, Morneau had top three longest home runs hit this season in terms of “true distance” which went 451, 448 and 439 feet respectively. According to Baseball-Reference.com, Ben Revere’s 43 infield hits were tops in the American League. This is not surprising due to (A) his speed and ( his 67% ground ball rate. The real question is, are we sure he’s hitting the ball on those and not just catching it and throwing it as far as he can? Can we re-check the video in slo-mo? Swinging to contact? The offense paced baseball with an 82% contact rate on their swings. Span and Revere were a regular Murderer’s Row for contact, putting the bat on the ball in 92% of their swings. Defensively, the Twins ability to control the run game was atrocious. Whether you want to blame it on the pitching staff for not holding runners or the catchers for being unable to throw them out, the Twins were able to throw out 15 would-be base-stealers on 135 attempts. Only Pittsburgh threw out fewer base-stealers (14). The Twins starters threw more than 100 pitches in just 29 starts this year. Only the hapless Rockies had fewer starts (15) with going over the century mark. (Editor’s note: Depressed yet?) How about that pitching to contact philosophy? The 2012 rotation excelled in that department. Fangraphs.com says their 83.9% contact rate was the highest in baseball. Unfortunately for the Twins, it was not glancing blows, either. The starters had the worst production out of their fastballs so says Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value warehouse. The Twins starters’ fastballs were collectively -89.2 runs below average. That’s how you don’t make it to 100 pitches in a night… The Twins pitching staff surrendered 23 “No Doubt” home runs. Those are categorized at HitTrackerOnline.com as those which the “ball cleared the fence by at least 20 vertical feet AND landed at least 50 feet past the fence.” Cole DeVries led all pitchers with five No Doubters allowed. The Twins’ 541 strikeouts by their starting pitching staff were, bar none, the least in baseball. Yet, that’s not even the worst performance Minnesota fans have witnessed by their rotation. In club history, it ranks as the 11th lowest strikeout mark (excluding strike-shortened seasons). So, yeah, itcould have been worse. Scott Diamond may have been the Pitcher of the Year for the Twins but he did not get that title by missing bats. According to Pitch F/X, his four-seam fastball induced a swing-and-miss just 6.1% of the time, the lowest the game this year. On the flip side, opponents beat that pitch into the ground 58% of the time, the second-highest rate behind teammate Samuel Deduno. What may have made his fastball that effect was how much he worked in his 11-to-5 curveball. Diamond spun his hook 29.1% of the time, making him the pitcher to use his curveball the most in the American League. The Twins used 25 pitchers this year, a new franchise record. Correction: The Twins used 24 pitchers this year and one Drew Butura. That number topped last year’s previous record of 24. The bullpen was a fairly bright spot this year and overlooked among Glen Perkins and Jared Burton’s solid seasons is the work done by Brian Duensing. Although he can be a human pitching machine when he starts, in the pen he’s nearly unhittable. This season, he allowed just one home run in relief making his 0.16 home runs allowed per nine innings the third lowest in the game and the second lowest for the Twins in the past twenty years. Only Tom Eden’s 0.12 in 1992 bests the Duenslinger’s total. That’s your useless Tom Eden trivia for the year. Nick Blackburn’s 7.39 ERA as a starter in 2012 is tied with Jim Deshaies (1994) as the worst Twins ERA with a minimum of 90 innings pitched. On that note, if you are interested in reading more about the 2012 Twins team and how to improve the 2013 squad, Twins Daily now has the 2013 Offseason Handbook ready for pre-order. If you order now, you can save yourself some cash in the process. Click here to view the article
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Download attachment: RN.jpg The Minnesota Twins’ starting pitching shortage of strikeouts has continued into 2014. That’s not anything new but it makes you wonder if the fumes from the garbage burner are causing pitchers to simply lob the ball into the strike zone. As of Tuesday, the Twins were owners of the bottom three strikeout rates in the American League. Download attachment: Krate.png While Kevin Correia and Kyle Gibson are thought of as contact-oriented pitchers, it is Ricky Nolasco’s inclusion on the list which is a bit surprising. After all, Nolasco held a 19% strikeout rate over his career. Though a drop in the strikeout rate is expected during the switch in leagues and pitchers have to face a designated hitter instead of a car antenna-swinging pitcher, the drop from 20% in 2013 to 11% so far in 2014 has been curious. Nolasco has been able to get to a two-strike count regularly, however, he has failed to put hitters away at an expected pace. According to ESPN/TruMedia, Nolasco leads all qualified starters with a .295 batting average in two-strike situations (he also owns a .333 average in 0-2 counts this year!!!)(!!!!!!). Download attachment: BAA.png What is happening? The most notable difference between last year and this year is his reliance on the fastball instead of either of his breaking balls. After throwing 35%/65% fastball/secondary split in two-strike counts in 2013, he’s throwing at a 44%/56% split this year – and his fastball has been hammered. When he throws the fastball in two-strike situations, opponents are hitting .429 (9-for-21 with 3 doubles). Another interesting aspect to this strikeout drop-off is his curveball usage. More than the usage, it is the effectiveness which is more cause for concern. Last year he posted a 25% swing-and-miss rate, that’s down to 7% this year. Who knows where this change is coming from – coaching staff, catcher or Nolasco himself. As he mentioned in spring training, Nolasco knows he has the final say to what is thrown in what situation. As of now, he has not been effective in what should be put-away situations. At the very least, it probably is time to reconsider what he is tossing in two-strike counts. ~~~ Twins beat the Indians on Monday so on Tuesday you can treat your family to a half price Papa John's L or XL pizza by using the promocode 'twinswin' at PapaJohns.com. ~~~ Click here to view the article
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Download attachment: Marquis.jpg Once upon a time, in a land far away on the other side of downtown, covered by a beautiful white bubble – where the weather was always a pleasant 72 degrees – there was a starting pitching staff who understood the intrinsic value of working ahead of opponents. In the last decade, from 2000 to 2010, one of the pillars of the Twins Way was to dominate the airspace above the plate. The starters made it their business to pepper the strike zone from the get-go, leading baseball with a 62.8% first-pitch strike rate. Brad Radke paced baseball with a 69% first-pitch strike rate as other members of the team – notably Carlos Silva, Kevin Slowey and Johan Santana - also finishing within the top ten. True, the quality of the arms, particularly Santana and Radke, were vastly superior to the current crop, however, by comparison, the 2012 Twins staff have completely deviated from this philosophy. This season, the staff has posted the worst first-pitch strike rate in baseball meaning just barely over half of the pitcher-batter engagements (53.8%) have resulted in the Twins pitcher registering strike one on the first pitch. While most would think “Liriano” right off the bat, it’s actually Jason Marquis who has been the team’s biggest offender. Heading into yesterday’s contest, Marquis’ 47.5% First-Pitch Strike rate was the second worst in baseball. Beyond just working ahead, Marquis has struggled to find the zone overall. Once again, while we all peg Liriano as the poster wild child, it is actually Marquis who has been missing the plate more frequently (35% versus Liriano’s 36.2% rate). What’s more is that the veteran is not missing any bats. In fact, his 3.5% swinging strike rate heading into yesterday’s outing against the Indians was the lowest in baseball (minimum 20 innings pitched). If we are looking for little victories inside his sixth start of the year, Marquis did improve his attack on the strike zone, jumping ahead for a strike 56% of the time on Tuesday afternoon. Likewise, after not inducing many swinging strikes on any of his secondary pitches, he got four (count ‘em, four) swinging strikes: three on his slider, one on his changeup. After the game, ESPN1500.com’s Phil Mackey relayed Ron Gardenhire’s assessment on the two starters, Cleveland’s Derek Lowe and Marquis: Two of the home runs Marquis allowed to the Indians came on his sinker, which certainly did not appear to be of the highest caliber that day. But, the most recent performance notwithstanding, believe it or not, his sinker is getting the best results in years. Those familiar with Pitch F/X know that the system of cameras inside the ballpark captures (almost) every pitch thrown, which measures the release point, speed, movement, spin, where it crosses the plate, and so on. By using this data, we find that Marquis’ sinker is coming in at a different vertical level than it had in more recent seasons. Before this year, his sinker had averaged vertical movement of 5.2, 6.0, 5.2 and 5.9 inches respectively. This year it’s at 2.9. Sinkers have a tendency to demonstrate, on average, a rise of five inches (not in the gravitational sense but relative to other pitches). For the past several years, Marquis’ sinker was very consistent with this average. However, this year, it is only rising 2.9 inches – meaning it is staying down. What makes this interesting is that Pitch F/X research - like the one found at It’s About The Money Stupid from 2011 - has shown that one of the ways ground balls are achieved the most when a pitch is thrown with 0.0 to 3.0 vertical movement. This has led to a near 60% ground ball rate. Download attachment: GB rate-vertical.jpg (From ItsAboutTheMoney.net) Derek Lowe, who finished the Twins off in short order yesterday by making them burn balls into the ground, had a 63% ground ball rate. His sinker has averaged vertical movement of 1.3, right in that aforementioned sweet spot, helping explain why he incited so many grass-killers off bats. Of course, in Marquis’ case, this only accounts for when opponents put the ball into play that they are knocking it into the ground. Sure, he has a career-high 57% ground ball rate but prior to yesterday’s game, he had only thrown his sinker for a strike just 48% of the time, well below the 62% mark from 2011. Hitters, not finding a diving ball appetizing, and have swung at fewer sinkers than previous seasons. This, in a nutshell, is why his results have been so poor. He cannot throw his best pitch for a strike consistently enough to entice hitters to swing. To make matters worse, he has been falling behind hitters to the point where he has to throw one over the plate. Most importantly, if he wants to that sinker to become even more effective, start with strike one. It is an old recipe that has worked for years. Click here to view the article
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As a self-proclaimed baseball analyst, I can say that there is nothing more difficult to gauge than a minor league prospect. There is little information available at the fingertips compared to major league players. But beyond that, there is perhaps nothing more difficult to gauge than a prospect at rookie ball where the data, video and observations are as rare as fine dining in their clubhouse.Download attachment: ap-gordon.jpg That said, a recent review of MLBFarm.com’s statistical warehouse -- a website which is enhancing and forwarding the availability of previously unknown data -- revealed that a majority of the balls put in play by Twins prospect and first round draft Nick Gordon were going to left field, a curiosity considering the newly added shortstop was a left-handed hitter. With the data from MLBFarm.com showing an overwhelming tendency for Gordon to go to the other way, a review of his swing was prompted. It could be the lefty had the penchant of simply going the other way with pitches. It could also be that the recent high schooler was struggling with the professional competition that had ability to throw better fastballs to better locations than he had previously seen. Because of this chart: Download attachment: Nick Gordon_HeatMap.png And video from Baseball America that showed contact like this on a fastball that indicating the contact deep into the zone: It is hard not to ask the question whether or not Gordon is having trouble adapting to the pro game. After all, he is not far removed from high school where pitchers rarely humped it up to 90 miles an hour. Suddenly he is playing in a league littered with 90+ arms (albeit without the tools and knowledge to exploit every weakness). Was he struggling to pull the ball at the same 40% clip that left-handed hitters do at the major league level? This is not to say that he is struggling. On the contrary, his statistics are quite good. At 18.67 years old, he is the 13th youngest member of the Appalachian League and is batting .318/.364/.402 -- which is about what Byron Buxton batted in his season at that level. What’s more, while the rest of the league-- in which the average player is 20.2 years old-- his hitting .256, he is besting that batting average by 24%. So even if pro fastballs are giving him fits, he’s done more than expected against them so far. Nevertheless, I had to present my theory to others in the organization in case there was some validity to it. First, I attempted to contact Ray Smith, the manager of the Elizabethton Twins, for a quick conversation regarding Gordon’s hitting tendencies. I wondered if there was something he saw on a nightly basis which explained this attribute. Was he trying to hit the other way, was his swing long or were pitchers simply trying to pitch him away? After a detailed email describing the aforementioned concern and this caveat that this was based on a small sample size with little visual evidence, Smith’s response came back short and sweet: “Absolutely no concerns with Nick’s bat speed.” Following his manager’s approval, I contacted Mike Radcliff, the Twins’ Vice President of Player Personnel, who happened to be following the Elizabethton team on the road for the past week. Radcliff’s testimony echoed the the manager's -- there was no issue with Gordon’s bat speed in terms of catching up to this league’s fastballs. In fact, as Radcliff said, the Twins had seen Gordon face plenty of pitchers who threw harder than the competition in the Appalachian League while he was in high school and performing in national showcases. “He’s hitterish,” Radcliff said. “He’s gonna hit.” Like Smith and the rest of the Twins evaluators, he believed because of Gordon's quick hands, similar to Buxton's, and his young age, he would be progressing offensively as he developed his “man muscles” as he reaches the legal drinking age. His observations were that Gordon has the ability to add extra-base potential based on his quick hands and eventual growth both physically and mentally. When asked if there was anything to explain the current data that suggested Gordon was unable to consistently pull the ball, Radcliff rightfully questioned the data size. “Had it been a 30-year-old veteran, then you might make that conclusion,” he said. Radcliff said that he views Gordon’s defense as more of a focal point for improvement than his offense. For Gordon, the immediate road ahead involved working on his footwork and his pivot at second base on the double play. His raw natural skill -- arm and speed -- would help him cover some of those weaknesses for the time being. What Radcliff emphasized about Gordon’s development is that he comes a strong “gene pool” -- the son of a former major league pitcher and brother to a current major league shortstop. “You value the gene,” Radcliff said in a candid scouting moment regarding Gordon’s lineage. “When you come from a major league gene, that’s what it is all about. There’s a great value at the beginning of their careers and a feeling that they won’t be overmatched.” Gordon is not likely to see any time above rookie ball this year, but he’s got a vote of confidence from the organization that he will be a major league starter and, perhaps, an All-Star like his brother. For more on Nick Gordon and the Minnesota Twins, listen to this week's No Juice Podcast. Click here to view the article
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On this week’s episode of the No Juice Podcast, Major League Baseball’s trade deadline swiftly approaching, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman discuss where the Minnesota Twins stand after the All-Star Break. Josh Willingham, Kevin Correia and Kurt Suzuki? Sell ‘em or sell ‘em all?Other topics include Twins prospect Nick Gordon’s introduction to professional baseball, previewing the Twins Daily Touch ‘Em All Pub Crawl, trolling Darren Rovell on Twitter, anger over the late night fireworks and bottomless appetizers. Listen below, on iTunes or Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #14 - TRADE DEADLINE Click here to view the article
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On Wednesday of this past week, Twins pitching prospect Alex Meyer dismantled the Rays’ Triple-A affiliate Durham Bulls, striking out eight over six innings of work while not allowing either a walk or a run. With Phil Hughes apparently sidelined for some time after absorbing an Adam Dunn projectile missile in combination with the inconsistent performance from the starting five that now consists of non-prospect arms, it is hard not to ask “When is it Meyer’s time?”The Twins have been understandably protective of their top pitching prospect based on his injury at the end of last season and the fact that he pitched a limited number of innings. Typically, organizations have a progression for how they would like to build a pitcher’s arm strength and he threw less than 100 innings in 2013 between Double-A and the Arizona Fall League. But based on Boston’s Will Middlebrooks’ early season scouting report after facing Meyer in Pawtucket, Meyer has more than enough weaponry to be hurling in the big leagues. Admittedly, several comments from the front office made in reference to Meyer’s command and pitch counts (the former is the reason the latter gets so high so quick), imply that he would have troubles pitching deep in to games. While a fair assessment given his walk rate, Meyer still could be learning at this level. And here’s another reason why I want to see him dabble here sooner rather than later: his ability to make adjustments. On June 2 in Rochester, Meyer surrendered this majestic blast to Gwinnett’s Mark Hamilton, a 29-year-old first baseman who had fewer than a season’s worth of plate appearances at the major league level with the St. Louis Cardinals. The ball, one can presume, was eventually stopped in its flight when it was shot down by the Canadian border guard. http://i.imgur.com/R8c5hYB.gif Note the location of of the 0-0 pitch: A fastball thigh-high and inside. Even with Meyer’s impressive velocity, this is a location that plenty of left-handed hitters love to do damage on. To be fair, Meyer was falling apart at this juncture of the game. After allowing a double that was considered aided by one of his outfielders, Meyer plunked the batter in front of Hamilton, setting up first-and-third in the fifth inning. Perhaps based on the recently hit batter, the plan was to re-establish the strike zone or maybe it was that with a fastball that averages mid-to-upper 90s, they figured he could fire it past the aging minor leaguer. Regardless of why, the results were disappointing. His next time through the rotation, five days latet, Meyer once again drew the Gwinnett Braves, this time in Georgia. With a three-run lead and two runners on base in the bottom of the sixth, Meyer faced Hamilton. It is this match-up, deep in the ballgame, that shows why Meyer is more of a pitcher and less of a thrower. One who, if it were not for the organization’s inning limitations, might already have been throwing bullets with the Minnesota Twins. Unlike his first pitch to this batter in his previous start, Meyer kept his fastball on the other side of the plate, but a little too far for ball one: http://i.imgur.com/LMhbPYA.gif With his second offering, he is able to command the outer-half of the plate with his fastball. There is little Hamilton can do but watch it blaze by. This, my friends, is a pitcher’s pitch: http://i.imgur.com/5ugjh9R.gif The count now even at 1-1, Meyer unleashes his knee-buckling knucklecurve which stays up in the zone just enough for Hamilton to yank foul as he is unable to stay back after seeing two very good fastballs. To this point in the count, Meyer has not gone back inside with anything of significant velocity: http://i.imgur.com/j7AZP9e.gif Now with two-strikes, Meyer attempts to put the lefty away with a backdoor breaking ball. Like the last one, it too stays up just enough for Hamilton to fight off and stay alive: http://i.imgur.com/mHyQLoG.gif Finally, and here is where it becomes serious business, following two offspeed pitches Meyer rears back and gasses a fastball up-and-away that has Hamilton reduced to rubble, simply trying to stay alive: http://i.imgur.com/0DZOkQL.gif The sequence demonstrates why Meyer could be an extremely good pitcher for the Twins. At this point, most prospect-philes project him as a potential number two starter in a strong rotation (not like a Kevin Correia number two starter, mind you). He has some flaws that the Twins are hoping he will work past, including the consistency in his mechanics and location, as well as refining a changeup that would give him yet another weapon. He clearly has the stuff to make an impact but the Twins do not want to pile too much workload on him -- which is one of the reasons he has not made the jump. Still, seeing his ability to adjust against an opponent is reassuring that he has both the physical and mental makeup for the next big step. Click here to view the article
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The Twins have been understandably protective of their top pitching prospect based on his injury at the end of last season and the fact that he pitched a limited number of innings. Typically, organizations have a progression for how they would like to build a pitcher’s arm strength and he threw less than 100 innings in 2013 between Double-A and the Arizona Fall League. But based on Boston’s Will Middlebrooks’ early season scouting report after facing Meyer in Pawtucket, Meyer has more than enough weaponry to be hurling in the big leagues. Admittedly, several comments from the front office made in reference to Meyer’s command and pitch counts (the former is the reason the latter gets so high so quick), imply that he would have troubles pitching deep in to games. While a fair assessment given his walk rate, Meyer still could be learning at this level. And here’s another reason why I want to see him dabble here sooner rather than later: his ability to make adjustments. On June 2 in Rochester, Meyer surrendered this majestic blast to Gwinnett’s Mark Hamilton, a 29-year-old first baseman who had fewer than a season’s worth of plate appearances at the major league level with the St. Louis Cardinals. The ball, one can presume, was eventually stopped in its flight when it was shot down by the Canadian border guard. http://i.imgur.com/R8c5hYB.gif Note the location of of the 0-0 pitch: A fastball thigh-high and inside. Even with Meyer’s impressive velocity, this is a location that plenty of left-handed hitters love to do damage on. To be fair, Meyer was falling apart at this juncture of the game. After allowing a double that was considered aided by one of his outfielders, Meyer plunked the batter in front of Hamilton, setting up first-and-third in the fifth inning. Perhaps based on the recently hit batter, the plan was to re-establish the strike zone or maybe it was that with a fastball that averages mid-to-upper 90s, they figured he could fire it past the aging minor leaguer. Regardless of why, the results were disappointing. His next time through the rotation, five days latet, Meyer once again drew the Gwinnett Braves, this time in Georgia. With a three-run lead and two runners on base in the bottom of the sixth, Meyer faced Hamilton. It is this match-up, deep in the ballgame, that shows why Meyer is more of a pitcher and less of a thrower. One who, if it were not for the organization’s inning limitations, might already have been throwing bullets with the Minnesota Twins. Unlike his first pitch to this batter in his previous start, Meyer kept his fastball on the other side of the plate, but a little too far for ball one: http://i.imgur.com/LMhbPYA.gif With his second offering, he is able to command the outer-half of the plate with his fastball. There is little Hamilton can do but watch it blaze by. This, my friends, is a pitcher’s pitch: http://i.imgur.com/5ugjh9R.gif The count now even at 1-1, Meyer unleashes his knee-buckling knucklecurve which stays up in the zone just enough for Hamilton to yank foul as he is unable to stay back after seeing two very good fastballs. To this point in the count, Meyer has not gone back inside with anything of significant velocity: http://i.imgur.com/j7AZP9e.gif Now with two-strikes, Meyer attempts to put the lefty away with a backdoor breaking ball. Like the last one, it too stays up just enough for Hamilton to fight off and stay alive: http://i.imgur.com/mHyQLoG.gif Finally, and here is where it becomes serious business, following two offspeed pitches Meyer rears back and gasses a fastball up-and-away that has Hamilton reduced to rubble, simply trying to stay alive: http://i.imgur.com/0DZOkQL.gif The sequence demonstrates why Meyer could be an extremely good pitcher for the Twins. At this point, most prospect-philes project him as a potential number two starter in a strong rotation (not like a Kevin Correia number two starter, mind you). He has some flaws that the Twins are hoping he will work past, including the consistency in his mechanics and location, as well as refining a changeup that would give him yet another weapon. He clearly has the stuff to make an impact but the Twins do not want to pile too much workload on him -- which is one of the reasons he has not made the jump. Still, seeing his ability to adjust against an opponent is reassuring that he has both the physical and mental makeup for the next big step.
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The No Juice Podcast, Episode #14: Trade Deadline
Parker Hageman posted a blog entry in Over the Baggy
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Other topics include Twins prospect Nick Gordon’s introduction to professional baseball, previewing the Twins Daily Touch ‘Em All Pub Crawl, trolling Darren Rovell on Twitter, anger over the late night fireworks and bottomless appetizers. Listen below, on iTunes or Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #14 - TRADE DEADLINE
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That said, a recent review of MLBFarm.com’s statistical warehouse -- a website which is enhancing and forwarding the availability of previously unknown data -- revealed that a majority of the balls put in play by Twins prospect and first round draft Nick Gordon were going to left field, a curiosity considering the newly added shortstop was a left-handed hitter. With the data from MLBFarm.com showing an overwhelming tendency for Gordon to go to the other way, a review of his swing was prompted. It could be the lefty had the penchant of simply going the other way with pitches. It could also be that the recent high schooler was struggling with the professional competition that had ability to throw better fastballs to better locations than he had previously seen. Because of this chart: And video from Baseball America that showed contact like this on a fastball that indicating the contact deep into the zone: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiE986BM7pg It is hard not to ask the question whether or not Gordon is having trouble adapting to the pro game. After all, he is not far removed from high school where pitchers rarely humped it up to 90 miles an hour. Suddenly he is playing in a league littered with 90+ arms (albeit without the tools and knowledge to exploit every weakness). Was he struggling to pull the ball at the same 40% clip that left-handed hitters do at the major league level? This is not to say that he is struggling. On the contrary, his statistics are quite good. At 18.67 years old, he is the 13th youngest member of the Appalachian League and is batting .318/.364/.402 -- which is about what Byron Buxton batted in his season at that level. What’s more, while the rest of the league-- in which the average player is 20.2 years old-- his hitting .256, he is besting that batting average by 24%. So even if pro fastballs are giving him fits, he’s done more than expected against them so far. Nevertheless, I had to present my theory to others in the organization in case there was some validity to it. First, I attempted to contact Ray Smith, the manager of the Elizabethton Twins, for a quick conversation regarding Gordon’s hitting tendencies. I wondered if there was something he saw on a nightly basis which explained this attribute. Was he trying to hit the other way, was his swing long or were pitchers simply trying to pitch him away? After a detailed email describing the aforementioned concern and this caveat that this was based on a small sample size with little visual evidence, Smith’s response came back short and sweet: “Absolutely no concerns with Nick’s bat speed.” Following his manager’s approval, I contacted Mike Radcliff, the Twins’ Vice President of Player Personnel, who happened to be following the Elizabethton team on the road for the past week. Radcliff’s testimony echoed the the manager's -- there was no issue with Gordon’s bat speed in terms of catching up to this league’s fastballs. In fact, as Radcliff said, the Twins had seen Gordon face plenty of pitchers who threw harder than the competition in the Appalachian League while he was in high school and performing in national showcases. “He’s hitterish,” Radcliff said. “He’s gonna hit.” Like Smith and the rest of the Twins evaluators, he believed because of Gordon's quick hands, similar to Buxton's, and his young age, he would be progressing offensively as he developed his “man muscles” as he reaches the legal drinking age. His observations were that Gordon has the ability to add extra-base potential based on his quick hands and eventual growth both physically and mentally. When asked if there was anything to explain the current data that suggested Gordon was unable to consistently pull the ball, Radcliff rightfully questioned the data size. “Had it been a 30-year-old veteran, then you might make that conclusion,” he said. Radcliff said that he views Gordon’s defense as more of a focal point for improvement than his offense. For Gordon, the immediate road ahead involved working on his footwork and his pivot at second base on the double play. His raw natural skill -- arm and speed -- would help him cover some of those weaknesses for the time being. What Radcliff emphasized about Gordon’s development is that he comes a strong “gene pool” -- the son of a former major league pitcher and brother to a current major league shortstop. “You value the gene,” Radcliff said in a candid scouting moment regarding Gordon’s lineage. “When you come from a major league gene, that’s what it is all about. There’s a great value at the beginning of their careers and a feeling that they won’t be overmatched.” Gordon is not likely to see any time above rookie ball this year, but he’s got a vote of confidence from the organization that he will be a major league starter and, perhaps, an All-Star like his brother. For more on Nick Gordon and the Minnesota Twins, listen to this week's No Juice Podcast.
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Sponsored by Ticket King If you missed the All-Star festivities at Target Field over the past few days, perhaps the incentive of seeing one of baseball’s hottest teams will bring you back downtown at a more reasonable price. For most of their existence, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays were a league laughingstock, destined to finish last in the AL East for eternity. Then they got new ownership, smartened up and figured out how to beat the financial powerhouses from the big cities up the Atlantic coast. Since 2007, they have won 84 or more games a year and have made the playoffs in four of the last six years. Everything they touched seemed to turn to gold: Carlos Pena, Casey Kotchman, James Loney, Matt Joyce, Kyle Farnsworth and Fernando Rodney -- all unexpected contributors who melded well with Evan Longoria, Ben Zobrist and David Price. These darlings continued to propel themselves towards the top of arguably baseball’s toughest division. As Jonah Keri called it in his seminal book, it was the extra 2% that elevated this organization. It was squeezing the maximum amount of talent out of struggling former top prospects or targeting unwanted free agents with unseen upside. It was developing prospects better and more efficiently to replace departing stars. It was moving soon-to-be departing stars for prospects. In short, it was an impressive top-to-bottom successful approach that turned the losers Devil Rays into the winning Rays. But 2014 has been another story. On June 11, the Rays held the worst record in baseball, harkening back to the Devil Ray era. While it may have seemed as if the Rays were immune to things like pitching injuries, 2014 has proven that their methods are not infallible. First it was starting pitcher Matt Moore, who after finishing 2013 at 17-4 with a 3.29 ERA. This year he lasted 10 innings before he needed Tommy John. Former Rookie of the Year pitcher Jeremy Hellickson has faltered so much that the team made the decision to send him down to Double-A to figure things out. This leaves the pressure on staff leader David Price -- whom the team is considering selling before the deadline per their modus operandi of trading prime value for heaps of prospect talent. On top of that, underperformance from key offensive contributors like last year’s Rookie of the Year Will Myers (injured as well) and Longoria has led to a downturn in runs scored. All this means that the Minnesota will will have several easy home victories coming out of the break, right? Not so fast. If the past thirty games are any indication, that couldn’t be further from the truth. Since bottoming out on June 11, the Rays have gone on to win 19 of the 30 games leading up to the break and no longer have MLB’s worst record. In comparison the Twins, despite a nice road trip surge before the All-Star Game, have finished 13-17 in that span. This is a pivotal series and homestand for the Twins as the team’s front office will likely make the assessment of where they stand at the upcoming trade deadline. Sweep the Rays and win a few more against Cleveland and Chicago and the brass may consider not trading away key players like Kurt Suzuki but rather contend for the final Wild Card spot. Get your seat: Baseball’s second-half is underway. Unable to go to Target Field over the All-Star Weekend? Try getting there this weekend. On Friday, Kyle Gibson gets to redeem himself from his clunker at Tropicana. Saturday night’s game will showcase Tampa Bay’s All-Star pitcher, David Price. On Sunday afternoon Phil Hughes will attempt to continue his dominant first-half performance. All are an even better deal if you use the promo code DAILYDOUBLE, which will get you 10% off and supports Twins Daily. Whatever your needs, your local ticket supplier, Ticket King, can help.
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On this week's episode of The No Juice Podcast, Parker Hageman and Dan Anderson ventured to KSTP studios to talk to one of the Twin Cities' hardest-working media members, Darren Wolfson. On the night that Labron James announced his intentions of returning to Ohio, Wolfson provided his plugged-in insights on what that means to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Kevin Love. Wolfson also shares information on the impending trade deadline and what that means for the Minnesota Twins. Other topics with Parker and Dan include the All-Star Weekend, Home Run Derby Happy Hours, and TV awards. Listen below, on iTunes or Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #13 - DARREN WOLFSON
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The No Juice Podcast, Episode #13: Darren Wolfson
Parker Hageman posted a blog entry in Over the Baggy