Parker Hageman

Download attachment: Arica.jpg Figuring hitters out, a baseball lifer told me recently, is like trying to untangle a giant knot. At first you just try to attack it in the easiest manner possible. If that does not work, you pick another course. And then another and another. You keep trying different things until something gives and you attack that spot until the knot becomes an unraveled mess of string with a sub-.200 batting average and a ticket back to Triple-A. That, in short, is how teams approach players who are new to the league. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Pitchers go right after hitters until the method proves fruitless. Then they start pitching away. Or they pitch up. They change speeds. Or they feed them breaking balls until they go cross-eyed. Meanwhile, the good hitters – the Joe Mauers of the world – adjust with the pitcher. They take that pitch on the outer-half to the opposite field. They lay off the high ones. They wait on the breaking ball. Those less experienced may fall right into the game plan of the other team. Take Danny Valencia and Brian Dozier as examples. Both these players enjoyed immediate success but fell apart as teams began to exploit their tendencies to pull everything. Valencia has hit .234/.274/.365 since that exciting rookie season while Dozier is a career .226/.265/.319 hitter in almost 500 plate appearances. Chris Parmelee enjoyed his month of September back in 2011 but has been a pile of yarn in the batters’ box since, hitting just .218/.284/.351. This brings me to the latest hot-hitting young Twin, Oswaldo Arcia. Arcia began the month of May with an 8-game hitting streak. Within that stretch, he hit .438 with four doubles, a triple and a home run. That performance, spread across three series, undoubtedly had advanced scouts saying “uh-oh, we’ve got to deal with this.” In a USA Today article, Bob Johnson, an advanced scout for the Braves, who just finished sweeping the Twins, explained a bit about his technique: "I'm looking for tendencies," he explains. "If a guy sets his hands at a different position on different counts. I want to know his stance. Does he close up? Is he an open-style hitter? Does he dive into the pitch? … I first check his hands, then his feet. Then I check where his head goes on certain pitches." {snip} Back at the hotel, he writes up reports on the game and then emails them to the team's video coordinator, who compiles the various streams of research. The team's manager and staff will ultimately share the information with the players to help them prepare for future match-ups. What advanced scouts saw with Arcia is a hitter who has a great ability to keep his hands inside his swing. He generates plenty of his power that way. He is a hitter who has no trouble going to all fields. In fact, he has hit the ball the opposite way (37% of balls in play) more than he has pulled it (31%). Teams realize that they need to get him to move his hands away from his body which requires avoiding pitching him middle-in. The assumption may be that he is seeing fewer fastballs but the reality is he is seeing roughly the same percentage of fastballs, just fewer of those for strikes. Take a look at this animation of his swing on fastballs, from the beginning of his major league season to when his hitting streak ended, compared to his past 10 games. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1369375354_Arcia_Fastballs.gif Notice the cluster of fastballs near the heart of the plate in the first series and the lack of anything there in the second series. The number of in-zone pitches Arcia has seen has shrunk significantly (his in-zone pitch percentage is 46%, well below the near 50% mark and has been at 39% the past two weeks). Arcia, so far, has not been the type of hitter who takes walks. He is a power hitter who is ready to swing (his 54% swing rate is also well above the MLB average of 46%). During the Atlanta series, Ron Gardenhire held Arcia out of the lineup, saying that the rookie was “misfiring” at the plate. True, the above numbers indicate that he is pressing hard at the plate with little to show in the past few weeks. His ninth inning pinch hitting appearance, resulting in a foul out to end the game, was a prime example of why he is mired in this offensive quagmire. On a 1-0 pitch, Arcia was sitting dead-red on a fastball. While the Braves gave him one, it was on the outer-half, running away and the contact resulted in an easy third out for Justin Upton in foul territory. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Arcia3.PNG In that situation, under those conditions, you can expect that the manager wants his player to be teeing up on a better pitch - particularly when ahead in the count. Prior to Thursday’s game against the Tigers, Gardenhire informed the media that his starting lineup would not include Arcia for the fourth consecutive game. When pressed for an explanation, the manager said that he wanted to play the matchups and that Ryan Doumit was 4-for-10 off the Tigers’ starting pitcher, Rick Porcello. This reasoning, based on absurdly small sample size, is likely the cover for the manager and coaches wanting Arcia to slow down and recognize how pitchers are approaching him. He has fallen into a pattern of trying to force everything. Their advice could be don’t swing so much, don’t expand the zone, and let the game come to you. Based on his tools, Arcia has a bright future. In order to realize this potential he needs to refrain from chasing everything that moves. His mechanics are solid and his strength will ensure that he will blister pitches that come into his swing path. As major league pitchers continue to pick at his weakness, he needs to adjust with them. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Diamond.jpg As plain as the nose on your face, the Twins could clearly see that a sizeable portion of their 2013 troubles was a direct result of the team’s rotation. “Not missing bats and big impact” could have been a mantra of the starting five, or at least a bestselling bumper sticker for a select number of the fan base, which thrives on the pessimism. The evidence of the staff’s lack of strikeouts is clear to anyone who does a cursory search of Fangraphs or Baseball-Reference. However, one telling stat that does not show up on the regular sites is the “well-hit average” which ESPNtrumedia carries. This statistic measures how well-struck a ball was and is an indication of whether a pitcher is able to keep hitters from shooting rockets all over the field. In 2013, major league pitchers carried a well-hit average of .164 while the league’s best staff in this category, the Pittsburgh Pirates, maintained a season low of .141. On the opposite end of the spectrum was the Minnesota Twins, who carried a girthy .194 well-hit average. Download attachment: Well_Hit_Avg.PNG One reason behind this obliteration could involve the staff’s approach. It should come as no surprise to those who watched any of the Twins pitchers last year and kept an eye on the radar gun readings that the speed numbers did not impress anyone. The Twins starters averaged 90 on their fastball. Just a tick below them was the Atlanta Braves’ staff that averaged 89.9 with the cheese. Yet, unlike the Twins, the Braves’ staff held a pristine .150 well-hit average – the fifth-best in the game last year. So the pitching woes cannot be entirely explained simply by lack of velocity – but it could possibly be explained by the lack of velocity in critical locations. Graham Goldbeck, a data analyst from Sportsvision (the company that runs the F/X systems – Pitch, Hit and Field), has culled through the 600,000-odd ball-in-play results captured by the Hit F/X technology and shared some of his findings with the SABR conference this past March. What Goldbeck found was that the vast majority of home run contact is produced out in front of the plate. Intuitively, Goldbeck’s findings found that fastball contact occurs later in the zone while off-speed contact happens further in front. Strategically, pitchers typically locate their off-speed and breaking balls most often on the lower-half or outside of the strike zone to avoid the type of contact that would result in souvenirs (save for the occasional get-me-over curves). Be it because they were attempting to pump strikes or simply because they failed to spot their secondary offerings (as seemed the case with Scott Diamond and Vance Worley) the Minnesota Twins allowed a league-high .461 slugging percentage on “soft” pitches (those that average 81-mph). Below is the velocity heat map for the entire major leagues, the well-hit average-leading Pittsburgh Pirates and, finally, the Twins, with the worst well-hit average in the game. Download attachment: MLB_SP_Zone.PNG (MLB) Download attachment: Pirates_SP_Zone.PNG (Pittsburgh Pirates) Download attachment: Twins_SP_Zone.PNG (Minnesota Twins) What you see with the Twins’ velocity heat map is that a high percentage of the “slow” offerings (curves, changes, etc as indicated by the green coloring), are falling in the middle of the zone. This, when considered in conjunction with Goldbeck’s findings, is some dangerous living. One metric that examines, at a glance, how frequently a pitcher is in or out of the zone with a pitch is ESPNtrumedia’s “Paint” statistic. Basically, paint will measure the shortest distance in inches from a pitch to the edge of the strike zone (in any direction). On average, MLB pitchers keep their “slow” offerings approximately one inch outside of the zone. Pittsburgh’s staff – led by breaking ball enthusiasts in AJ Burnett and Francisco Liriano – threw their soft pitches an inch-and-a-half away from the zone (-1.6). Meanwhile the Twins starters threw their soft offerings less than an inch away (-0.9). This means that a significant portion of these pitches were located in a very hittable region. As the Twins attempt to fix the rotation this winter, a key component of that could be identifying talent which has different approach than last year’s staff had. Namely, pitchers able to keep their “soft” pitches out of the middle of the zone. Those available include the likes of Ervin Santana and Scott Kazmir – both of whom attack the strike zone with their fastball and supplement it with below-the-zone breaking pitches. On the other hand, pitchers like Ricky Nolasco and Phil Hughes tend to allow their “soft” offerings to hang up in the zone, leading to above-average well-hit averages in 2013. Click here to view the article

La Velle had a good piece on Rule 5 pick Terry Doyle at the Strib today. The 26-year-old right-hander discussed some his route to the Twins organization, listening in on Internet radio at his home in Warwick, Rhode Island when he found out that Minnesota had drafted him. Download attachment: TerryDoyle.jpg For their part, the Twins were impressed with Doyle’s performance in the Arizona Fall League in which he went while in the Chicago system and, as Neal writes, “Doyle he was dominant at times while going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in eight starts for the Mesa Solar Sox.” With their scouts on hand, Twins GM Terry Ryan told Neal that they were impressed by Doyle’s repertoire: [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Reaffirming the Twins scouting department’s belief in Doyle is Baseball America’s JJ Cooper assessment. Heading into the Rule 5 draft, Cooper wrote: Not to diminish the accolades of being anointed one of the league’s Rising Stars or what is perceived as solid stuff by Baseball America, Doyle’s small sample size dominance in the desert leaves some wondering if that was more enigmatic than breakthrough. After all, his batting average on balls in play was ridiculously low (.127) even for a workload of just under 30 innings. In a recent chat, ESPN.com’s prospect guru fielded a question regarding Doyle’s chances of being an impact player to which Law responded “[f]ringe guy. Don't see a big league role for him.” Again, Doyle appears to be a smart pitcher – as alluded to by both Ryan and Cooper – and majored in math at Boston College. During an interview with Fangraphs.com’s irreplaceable David Laurila, Laurila asked the math major what, if any, can Doyle as a pitcher derive from applied statistics. To which, the pitchers said: Reading that interview, you understand why Doyle is what has become the archetypical Twins pitcher – he throws strikes and he lets his defense do the work. What’s more is that he understands his limitations. He doesn’t have a devastating fastball but incorporates a cutter to provide a variety of movement. As Cooper said, he will use his secondary stuff early in the count to keep opponents off-balanced. Perhaps most important, he pounds the strike zone with all four offerings. This method has led to high ground ball rates and low walk-rates. Doyle’s road to Minnesota may be filled with plenty of hurdles this spring but, if he gets there, you can certainly envision him thriving in the organization’s pitching system. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Dozier.jpg After sending Tsuyoshi Nishioka to Rochester, many fans began to think that Brian Dozier may have done enough this spring to entice the powers that be to include him on the major league roster. On Tuesday, manager Ron Gardenhire squelched that notion. According to the Star Tribune’s Joe Christensen’s tweet which paraphrased Gardenhire’s comments on the situation, the Twins will not be bringing Dozier northward but rather sending him to Rochester to start the season. The Twins’ manager added that the team would not hesitate to summon Dozier if anything should happen to either Jamey Carroll or Alexi Casilla. This would allow for Dozier to be a starter rather than a utility player for the parent club. Dozier, 24, made offensive progress in 2011 after his promotion to Double-A New Britain. There, he worked with hitting coach Tom Brunansky to develop more power. Said Dozier of the former Twins’ instructions: "When I got to Double-A, my swing kind of changed,'' Dozier said. "I started to develop into my swing. I worked with Tom Brunansky and it really took off for me. I developed more power and was driving balls more than I was used to.'' Unfortunately, no video exists of Dozier’s post-Double A swing so we cannot provide a full breakdown of his mechanics. What we can see statistically is that whatever changes that were made, it resulted in much improved power numbers although at the small expense of his on-base percentage and batting average. While in High-A Fort Myers, Dozier hit a solid .322/.417/.472. Once he was moved to New Britain, he hit a very good .318/.376/.502. While the walk rate dropped (from 12.4% to 8.0%) and the strike out rate grew (from 9.2% to 13.1%) his power output increased substantially (his isolated power swelled from .150 to .184). This might be something that you would expect from working under Brunansky’s tutelage as Bruno himself had a lot of all-or-nothing type swing in him (leading to a low-batting average/on-base percentage and high-slugging combination over his career). Of course, that is not to say that Dozier is following in Brunansky’s footprints, after all, the change in competition level may have as much to do with the shift in his peripheral numbers as anything. However, the change in the way the ball was coming off his bat may be the biggest outcome of the swing modification. Pre-New Britain, Dozier was knocking the ball into the ground closer to the 50% mark over his career. For a speedy middle infielder, this is not necessarily a bad thing. Since his time in New Britain, that ground ball rate has dropped to below-40%, meaning he is elevating the ball far more often than usual and, hence, the sudden increase in home runs (seven in 351 plate appearances) and extra base hits. So whatever adjustments were made, so far, it has paid off. With Brunansky moved to Rochester to handle the team’s most ready minor league prospects, sending Dozier back to work with the man who helped improve his swing and continue to put the final touches on it is not the worst outcome. Click here to view the article

On April 29th, while catching Joe Mauer took a Brayan Pena sharp foul ball off the inside part of his left knee. Up to that point, the seemingly healthy Mauer was hitting a robust .325/.419/.438. He had hit a home run, triple and four doubles in those 93 plate appearances. Since then, he has gone to hitting safely in just four of his last 31 at-bats (.129), including a gentle double and a ground ball that Mariners shortstop Brendan Ryan likely should have converted. Now, many wonks will argue comparing 93 plate appearances to the outcome of another 36 plate appearances is the ultimate exercise in small sample size analysis. Additionally, the fact that he has faced a regiment of Jered Weaver (twice) and Felix Hernandez may lend credence to the notion that he is just slumping in May. However, because this performance drop-off started with the foul ball incident, it is hard to ignore the influence a shot to a load bearing limb may have on his swing. You have to wonder if Mauer is currently hurting more than he wants everyone to believe. At the start of the season, Mauer was a line drive machine. In the season’s first month, nearly 30% of all balls off of his bat were hit on a line. So far this month, he has managed to hit just one line drive in 36 plate appearances since absorbing the Pena foul ball. The majority of his balls in play have been grounders. Download attachment: Mauer_Batted Balls.jpg Without the assistance of the high percentage of line drives and the huge increase in ground balls, it is easy to see why Mauer’s numbers have taken a tumble. Visually, through the monthly spray charts found at TexasLeaguers.com, we find that he has struggled to pull the ball in May as effectively as he did in April: Download attachment: Mauer_April2.jpg Download attachment: Mauer_May2.jpg Mauer’s left knee, the one Pena’s foul ball ricocheted off of, has been a source of pain for him in the past. In 2010, he had arthroscopic surgery after tissue inflammation experienced throughout the season. Last year, his bi-lateral leg weakness was concocted from what Mauer described as leg soreness from not properly working out his lower half following the 2010 arthroscopic surgery. If it was indeed re-aggravated, the left knee – the one he would pivot and drive off of during his swing – would keep him from pulling the ball with authority. While the shot to the knee may be downplayed in the media, it would seem that the Twins have taken precautionary measures that would suggest that they are a bit more concerned about him. This month, manager Ron Gardenhire clearly recognized the need to alleviate the pressure on Mauer’s knees as since sitting out post-foul tip he has played nine games and only two behind the plate. Meanwhile, the front office, perhaps concerned over his resiliency, recalled Drew Butera from Rochester to serve as the third catcher in spite of a thin bench. To Mauer’s credit, the majority of the ribbing last year appeared to be focused on his inability to work his way into the lineup and that his “bi-lateral” injuries were simply an excuse to avoid playing for a terrible team. This season, he’s played 30 of the 31 total contests, perhaps proving to his critics that he can play through the pain. Unfortunately, if he is in pain stemming from the foul ball, his performance has obviously taken a downturn. Understandably, with Justin Morneau unable to play, the Twins are counting on their $23 Million Dollar Man to get out there and play. At the same time, if the team wants to ensure that he is available throughout the duration of the season, they may need to sit him a little more regularly than they have been doing up to this point. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: francisco-liriano-apjpg-29e451cf29aa9cc6.jpg Francisco Liriano’s first six starts of the season were nothing short of disappointing. With plenty of raw talent, the Twins potential rotation leader failed miserably, throwing 26.2 innings, allowed 37 hits (six of which were home runs), posted a terrible 21-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio and failed to pitch into to the sixth inning in all but one start. In that time, Liriano was drastically out of whack mechanically and the coaching staff had even tried to recreate his spring training success by getting him to throw his four-seam fastball more than his two-seamer which he struggled to command. The changes did not keep him from derailing and a shift to the bullpen would be required. After several outings in the ‘pen, injuries and perhaps a need to inflate his trade value necessitated his return to the rotation. Even though the team’s record in those four starts may not reflect it (1-3), Liriano has been a better pitcher during this more recent stretch. He’s worked 23.2 innings (completing six innings in all but one start in which he fell one out shy of the mark) and has allowed just 12 hits to go along with a much improved 29-to-10 strikeout-to-walk ratio. One of the main reasons for this subtle rejuvenation is that he has increased his slider usage. In the past three years, Liriano has had one of the game’s best sliders. According to Fangraphs.com, since 2010 Liriano’s slider has been “worth” 23.6 runs above average, making it the eighth most valuable slider in that time. However, he was encouraged to throw his two-seam fastball more often in attempts to get more quick outs – a ground ball here and there – to avoid getting into deeper counts like most strikeout pitchers do. So, during his first stint in the rotation this year (April 1 – May 7), Liriano favored the two-seam fastball, throwing it 52% of the time and, of those, threw 56% for strikes – a good not great rate. Because of favoring his two-seamer, he threw his slider just 26% of the time in those six starts. In his second stint in the rotation (May 30 – Present), Liriano has leaned more on the biting slider, mixing it in now at 38% of the time. [TABLE=align: center] [TD=colspan: 4]Francisco Liriano – Slider Usage (2012)[/TD] [/TD][TD]Two-Seam Fastball Slider Batting Average April 1 – May 7 52% 26% .346 May 30 – June 15 38% 38% .143 [/TABLE] What’s more is that not only is Liriano using the breaking ball more frequently across the board he is also using it quite a bit to start off each batter in efforts to get ahead of opponents. One of Liriano’s shortcomings these past two years has been his inability to get ahead of hitters. In fact, of starters who have thrown a minimum of 150 innings since 2011, Liriano’s 51% first-pitch strike rate was the lowest in baseball. Not surprisingly, Liriano mainly threw his two-seam fastball on the first pitch and 62% of the time in his first six starts. Meanwhile, in his second go round, he has increased the amount of slider’s he has thrown (from 22% to 36%) and reduced the amount of two-seamers (from 62% to 38%). Because his slider has a much higher strike rate than his fastball, Liriano has found himself ahead in the count more in these last four starts. The change in his pitch distribution has led not only to more strikes but also more ground balls. Liriano’s slider is a ground ball manufacturer and in his first six starts, he exercised a GB/FB split of 0.69, meaning he was inducing more fly balls than grounders (as seen in his six home runs allowed in that time). More recently, that batted ball ratio has increased to 1.00 GB/FB which means the amount of grounders has grown (and he has allowed just one home run in those four starts). What we are likely seeing is Liriano upping his value from absolute zero to something that could bring the Twins a decent prospect in return if he continues this performance and the Twins decide to move him. Watch for Liriano to throw more slide pieces in tonight’s start again Pittsburgh. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Willingham2.jpg Technology is amazing, isn’t it? Sure, we’re missing the flying cars, moon colonies and hover boards but the fact that we all basically carry around personal computers/television sets that can make phone calls in our pocket is pretty mind-blowing. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Baseball, while it may seem archaic with the bats made from trees and game play which doesn’t involve a time clock, is actually progressive and embraces new technologies off the field. Not long ago, the Pitch F/X cameras installed at all stadiums opened up a whole new world of data to the general public. This new insight has provided teems of information on pitchers, hitters, umpires and, most recently, catchers. Suddenly, we know whose curveball gets the most swing-and-misses (AJ Burnett at 44.1%), whose fastball generates the most groundballs (Scott Diamond at 58%), and whose catcher can coax the most strikes on pitches just out of the zone (Jose Molina, 13%). For front offices, this seems like really important stuff, particularly when evaluating free agent talent. But baseball does not want to stop there. MLB has been working on going beyond just the batter-pitcher matchups by exploring the world of contact (Hit F/X) and defense (Field F/X). Once available, the latter will be able tell us who gets the best jumps, who positions themselves the best and who covers the most ground. The former, Hit F/X, will be able to provide details on what kind of contact is necessary for a towering home run, a line drive, an opposite field double, and so on. At the SABR Analytics Convention in Phoenix a week ago, Baseball America dispatched Matt Eddy to cover the event which discusses these forthcoming technologies. While there, Eddy was treated to a presentation from Graham Goldbeck, a data analyst from Sportsvision – the creator of the F/X systems. Goldbeck released some new information farmed out from the nearly 600,000 ball-in-play situations captured by their Hit F/X system. What Hit F/X does is tracks the batter’s contact point, batted ball speed, the horizontal spray angle (like a spray chart) and the vertical launch angle. From this, Goldbeck found that hitters who tend to make contact out in front of the plate have a greater tendency to hit from home run power than those who make contact deeper in the zone: This is analytical evidence of something that probably already knew from observation of two members of the Minnesota Twins who are on opposite ends of the spectrum: Josh Willingham and Joe Mauer. When it comes to Willingham, we knew one thing: He pulls the living fire out of the ball. Last year, his .487 isolated slugging percentage when pulling wash tied for sixth-highest in baseball. (Think if he had a more hitter-friendly home ballpark.) Why is he so good at pulling the ball? That is because he makes outstanding contact out in front of the plate, much like Goldbeck’s research suggests. Take a look at his connection point in this home run: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1363367962_Willingham.PNG Now, compare Willingham’s contact point to Mauer’s, who just sliced his patented left-field double. http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Mauer.PNG Mauer has been one of the game’s foremost connoisseur of going the other way. Part of the reason behind that is that he can let the ball travel much deeper into the zone than Willingham has ever allowed. As such, the natural conclusion is that he would have a much harder time of reaching the same home run totals as Willingham because his swing is not conducive to generating the kind of power. Dingers aside, Mauer’s approach affords him superior contact rate over Willingham’s approach. Another thing that Goldbeck’s research said about Willingham is that he has one of the most consistent contact points. This means that he is susceptible to other pitch types or various locations away from his standard impact zone. As such, we see that he had a well-below contact rate average (75.9% versus 79% league average) in 2012 compared to Mauer who was well above that mark (87.8%). Additionally, although it is possible that Mauer may suddenly start hitting the ball out in front and launching dingers into the newly minted party deck in right field, the study suggests that the likelihood of this happening is low. It is rare for hitters to change their stripes: We’ve reached an age where we have a greater understanding of the game than ever before. We confirm why Josh Willingham can decimate Target Field while many other hitters cannot. We know that while everyone may wish for Mauer to take that step forward and hit home runs by the bushel, we are learning from the technology that it just simply may not be possible – that is, unless the left field fence is moved in 50 feet or so. Technology is amazing. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: KohlStewart_crop_650 (1).jpg Since 2010 the Minnesota Twins starting rotation has had an average fastball velocity of 90 miles per hour, which has been the lowest in the American League. In that time, they have struck out the lowest percentage of hitters (14.8%), had the third-highest ERA (4.76) and second-highest contact rate (83.6%). In an effort to improve in these areas the Twins selected Kohl Stewart, a fireballer out of a Houston prep school whose skill set is projected to eventually help the rotation out of the lowly doldrums. Armed with a mid-90s fastball that touches 97, Stewart, a Texas A&M recruited quarterback, has mowed down Texas hitters for several years and has jumped up on scouts’ radars of late. With a decent frame to grow into, the 18-year-old right-hander grabbed the Twins’ attention enough to make him their fourth overall pick in the 2013 draft. Stewart knows that his mid-90s fastball is the centerpiece of his burgeoning repertoire. All pitchers know that they need to key everything off their fastballs. Some have better fastballs than others; Stewart is not the others. His fastball reaches 97 miles per hour – a velocity only a few arms are ever blessed with attaining. For the Twins, it's just Glen Perkins who is capable of reaching that speed. “There are days where you’re not going to have that pitch, but my fastball is a very comfortable pitch for me,” Stewart told reporters on his post-draft conference call. “I like to use both sides of the plate and work off my fastball. My slider is probably my second best pitch, with my curveball and changeup. I’m really comfortable throwing any pitch at any count.” Of course, velocity means nothing without movement or location but Stewart is working on that. Although Stewart says he feels comfortable throwing his fastball regularly and in any situation, it is the success of his secondary pitches that will help him become a starter in the major leagues. After all, two-pitch pitchers wind up in the bullpen – not the intended destination of a fourth overall selection. A starter needs three or more offerings in order to thrive. Currently, Stewart is a currently a two pitch pitcher. He has his plus-plus fastball and his plus-slider but he has also worked on developing a slower curve as well as a change-up. He has also tinkered with a sinker, something that keeps right-handers off-balanced. “My slider is more effective right now, just ‘cause I started throwing my curveball just this year. My changeup has definitely come around. I’ve thrown that a lot more in the last year. And, I even have a little bit of a sinker just to give me something else to go hard in on righties. The sinker has kind of come to fruition, just in the last couple of weeks -- just throwing bullpens and messing around with some things.” Overall, Stewart has clean and effortless mechanics. He does not possess any herky-jerky movement or any red flags like an inverted W arm action or any wasted lower-half motion that would put added stress on his suddenly valuable appendage. The mechanics, velocity and make-up are things that can be built upon. Stewart, however, admits that there is plenty he needs to work on in order to become a successful major league starter. His slider, for one, is an area of his game he would like to improve. Scouts have called it a “wipeout” slider – one that has a ton of glove-side run for him – but ultimately does not look that appetizing to right-handed hitters as it disappears over the left-handed batter’s box. “There’s a lot of things I need to develop. I need to work on throwing my slider inside to righties. Sometimes I let it get away, throw it too hard and it will go away to righties.” No doubt Stewart has a ton of promise but the fact he is a high school arm does not necessarily mean he will produce the kind of return on investment like the collegiate counterparts like Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray do. A 2010 study in the Wall Street Journal found that high school pitchers taken in the first round tended to command more of a bonus than their college brethren, who were also able to realize their potential much swiftly. That doesn’t mean Stewart has any more likelihood of becoming Todd Van Poppel or Dylan Bundy than it a found quarter on the ground will be up heads over tails. Twins General Manager Terry Ryan made it clear what they are looking for when they make a selection, and it has little to do with the current status or statistics. The scouts are looking for the skills, tools, body, competitiveness and attention that will project well for the draftee when they are 22 or 23 years old. The scouting department loves Stewart’s makeup and his athleticism. Those two qualities mean more long-term than his current talent alone. The Twins are investing in the long-term future with their number one pick. Stewart can potentially give them a front of the rotation arm that can miss bats which has been desperately needed in Minnesota for a long time. http://apps.startrib...ry_id=210525781 Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7872363.jpg Over his career, Phil Hughes has seemingly been one solid secondary pitch away from taking over the world. Since his prospect days, his curveball was considered this dangerous weapon. For Hughes, unfortunately, the pitch never manifested as that killer pitch as projected. Eventually, the pitch was unceremoniously dropped from his arsenal in 2012. When asked why the deuce took the backseat to other pitches in his repertoire, Hughes cited his inability to execute as one of the main reasons. “It was one of those things where basically it became a first-pitch strike pitch and that’s all I was using it for, and that’s not what I want it to be,” Hughes said in the clubhouse this spring. “But it was out of necessity because I was kind of looping it up there. It wasn’t a good thing.” In his final year with the Yankees, Hughes certainly favored the pitch to start an at-bat off. While he threw the pitch just 11% of the time overall, he spun it up to the plate a nearly quarter of the time on the first pitch to a hitter. Opponents, trained to seek-and-destroy fastballs on the opening pitch, often allowed the big bend to sail past only to find themselves down in the count no balls and one strike. As the at-bat would progress, Hughes had the tendency to then lean on his impressive fastball. Much like former Twin Scott Baker, Hughes would target the top of the zone with a 92+ heater and would register a high percentage of swing-and-misses with an equally insane number of foul balls. With two strikes, and fear that the looping curve would be tipped out of his hand, Hughes stuck to the fastball and slider -- demonstrating a near fifty-fifty split in usage between the two. The results left something to be desired as his .253 opponent batting average against in two-strike situations, the second highest in the game last year, suggested that the current plan was not working. On top of that, his 44% foul ball rate with two-strikes meant he handed out a lot of souvenirs to the ticket holders in the gated community areas of the stadium and also that his pitch count increased quickly. This translated to premature clubhouse showers. So with all that in mind, but without all the numbers to back it up and just ball guy intuitive stuff, Hughes focused on redeveloping the curve to be a legitimate weapon in those types of circumstances. “Coming into spring it was a conscious effort to make sure I was finishing that pitch and keeping my hand out in front so you don’t pick up any spin or have it pop out of my hand,” Hughes explained. Camouflaging your secondary pitches is one of the biggest keys in pitching and, to Hughes’ concern of keeping the curve from “popping” out of his hand, is a big one for that particular pitch. The looping curve, as he described it, is one that has the tendency to come out of the pitcher’s hand a bit higher than a fastball. “A lot of times with curveballs, more than any other pitch, it will go above the fastball plane,” major league pitching instructor Tom House told the Washington Post in 2012. “And if it goes above the fastball plane, then the hitter knows it’s not a fastball.” Which means they sit and let it pass. Or they swing out of their cleats at it. Either way, it becomes a less effective pitch. Through three starts in 2014, it is hard to tell if the tinkering has worked. He has thrown more curveballs throughout each plate appearance but the percentage of times hitters have swung at it has decreased. Plus, no one is chasing after the pitch out of the zone, which means it is not getting buried for strike three. While his strikeout rate has climbed so far this season and may not be directly due to his curveball (12 of his 17 K’s have come on fastballs) it is possible that just occasionally flashing the curve keeps hitters off his fastball. “It’s altering sequences,” Hughes said this spring, “I’ve gotten into some predictable sequences for the most part, so once I get my changeup and cutter going I can kind of alter those a little bit, you know, flipping a few first-pitch curveballs, always keeping it different, that will be good.” In terms of his curve -- his large, looping pitch thrown around 74.1 mph on average -- hitters will see it mainly early in the count (16 of the 44 were thrown on first-pitch) or occasionally with two-strikes (another 18 were thrown in two-strike situations). In both instances, hitters refrained from swinging. Of the 44 thrown, just 14 (31.8%) have been offered at. That’s quite a low total for a curveball overall. Does predictable sequencing explain why Hughes’ curveball has been roundly ignored by opponents? Or is the big loop helping hitters differentiate his curve from other pitches? Some attribute the modern hitters’ ability to lay off these slower breaking pitches to improved analytics and scouting reports. In Boston, a Providence Journal article noted that the Red Sox staff was tightening up their pitch types, moving to cutters and splitters instead of sliders and curves, because the late break of the former would confuse hitters better than the looping curve or long tilt of the slider. “There’s more knowledge in a game now of bat paths and technologies and studies and charts and hot zones, so you can get a picture of somebody’s bat path and where they like to hit the ball,” Red Sox catcher David Ross told the Providence Journal’s Brian Macpherson. “Guys try to stay off that as much as they can off the fastball with a cut or a sink or sharp breaking stuff. The big breaking ball is pretty much obsolete.” While Ross may consider the big breaking ball obsolete, Hughes still breaks his out, just not at the same rate as he did a few years ago while coming up with the Yankees when it was considered a plus-pitch for him. It was last year when Hughes started to feel that hitters were not reacting to the pitch the same and shelved it in favor of the late-break cutter. This season, while he’s thrown his curve more frequently than last year, it is still the cutter that is thrown with greater frequency. Unlike his curve, the cutter is (1) swung at, (2) swung at out of the zone and (3) missed at a higher rate. So maybe the curveball is the savior of a pitch for Phil Hughes that it was made out to be in spring training. He still is doing many things right at this juncture, such as leading the staff in strikeouts and avoiding home runs. If, however, he can find some help in reducing his unsightly batting average on balls in play or the number of foul balls that has blown up his pitch count so frequently, he might be able to stay on the mound beyond the typical five innings of work. Click here to view the article

On this week's episode of the No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman begin with some big news. Like, really big.Then they talk about the Minnesota Twins which includes the recent trade of Kendrys Morales to the Seattle Mariners, the potential of trading away Kurt Suzuki and the overall status of the team heading towards what is projected to be another disappointing second-half. Other topics on the show include the Minnesota Vikings training camp, idiotic media responses to domestic violence and stealing other podcast’s Twitter questions. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #15 - BIG ANNOUNCEMENT Click here to view the article

On this week's episode of the No Juice Podcast, Dan Anderson and Parker Hageman begin with some big news. Like, really big. Then they talk about the Minnesota Twins which includes the recent trade of Kendrys Morales to the Seattle Mariners, the potential of trading away Kurt Suzuki and the overall status of the team heading towards what is projected to be another disappointing second-half. Other topics on the show include the Minnesota Vikings training camp, idiotic media responses to domestic violence and stealing other podcast’s Twitter questions. Listen below, on iTunes or on Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #15 - BIG ANNOUNCEMENT

Download attachment: Worley1.jpg You would think with a moniker like “Vanimal” that Vance Worley would be a rock star-party hard individual. Some meathead with torn off sleeves and who breaks “No Pepper” signs on the backstop with a 99-mile per hour fastball. That’s simply not Vance. He is not a huck-n-chuck hurler who puts little thought in the process and just pitches on animal instincts. He realizes that his stuff isn’t electric. He knows that his fastball doesn’t wow radar gun enthusiasts or that his breaking ball doesn’t cause hitters to spin themselves in to the dirt. He does know what he has and how to use it. After all, you don’t get as may strikeouts as Worley did in 2011 and having most of them registered as caught looking without outsmarting and outthinking your opponent. When asked if he would ever use Pitchf/x to help create an advantage over his opponents, he shrugged. “There’s nothing to really use a whole lot,” he admits. “I tend to use it more against guys I have already faced, so I can see what they have done against me. It’s tough to go off of what other guys do because it everybody is different. There might be a guy who’s throwing upper-90s, such as Verlander, and he’s getting guys out by blowing them up and throwing hammer curveballs. For me, it’s like, OK, I don’t have that so I’m going to move it a little bit more and go the other way with it. Stuff that goes both directions. Every pitcher has success differently.” Still, at just 25-years-old, there is always room for improvement. For example, Worley has had troubles establishing a threatening change-up, which has been a work-in-progress for the past two spring trainings. “In spring last year with Philly, it was a matter of just getting a feel for the change-up, for consistency,” Worley said. “And today [Opening Day], I didn’t throw any because [the Phillies] were trying to get me to work on a split-finger change. I didn’t use it at all last year, so we just went with my strengths. Once I went down with the elbow injury, there were no strengths at all. I thought, why not?” You may be wondering how is it that a pitcher develops all through the minor leagues and comes away without a serviceable change-up in his arsenal. After all, it’s like a fastball only less so, right? Shouldn’t a pitcher just ease up on the gas and – voila! – change-up! The same question was recently posited to two Rockies pitchers who said that, in the minors, pitchers tend to fall back on what they are comfortable with or what they have had the highest level of success with. Far too often, that’s fastballs and breaking balls – repertoires conceived in high school and college to avoid aluminum bats, rather than induce soft contact. What’s more, if a pitcher is trying to develop a change during minor league games, a few bad results often sends the pitcher scrambling back to comfort zone to avoid his raw numbers from being dinged too much. Change-ups definitely take the right placement and require the necessary feel to put them where a pitcher wants. With command of the circle-change residing in the hand’s last three digits and the split-change’s control found in the unbalanced positioning between a spread index and middle finger, mastering a change-up is not as easy as simply throwing softer. Worley had attempted both versions.Download attachment: Worley2.jpg “It’s a feel pitch. Everybody’s different. There’re guys that can throw sinkers and there are guys that can’t. For me, I’m a guy who can throw a sinker and you try to teach it to people and some people can get it and some people can’t.” Some change-ups come naturally, but not without some work. Worley’s teammate Jared Burton fooled around with a change-up grip while with Western Carolina University and perfected it to the point where his “splange-up”, so named by the diving split-finger action of the pitch, became a dominating out-pitch for him. In 2012, opponents hit just .156 off of it and rang up 31 of his 55 strikeouts with the pitch, helping him earn his two-year extension. In the Hardball Times 2010 Baseball Annual, baseball researcher Dave Allen took a look at Pitchf/x data and examined where different pitches had success. His findings showed that a majority of pitchers kept their change-ups reserved for opposite-handed batters (i.e. a left-handed pitcher to a right-handed hitter) and only occasionally showing them to same-sided batters. Furthermore, change-ups that were thrown either down in the zone or away had the highest rate of success. When asked if he would deploy his change-up much in the similar manner as the rest of the league, Worley disagreed. “You can throw it to lefties or righties,” Worley said before launching into a detailed explanation. “It really depends more on pitch sequence. For righties, if you know you have a good one with good tumble to it and sink, that’s a good one to throw inside to a right-hander. Right-on-right. Lefties, same thing. Start over there or you can throw it at ‘em – kind of front-hip them. You know, Fernando Rodney does that really well with his changeup. It’s just a matter of how much your ball moves. If you throw a straight one, live on the corners with it but just know if it is too firm or they are sitting on it, it’s probably going to get hit.” You may know Fernando Rodney for his tilted brim but his change-up has been devastating and deserves your attention. While Trevor Hoffman may be remembered as having one of the greatest change-ups of all-time, Rodney’s version is possibly one of the best in the game today. In 2012, Rodney threw his changeup 396 times, according to Fangraphs.com’s Pitchf/x data base. Hitters tied themselves up in knots swinging at a pitch that carried an average of 13 miles per hour of difference from his fastball – nearly twice the differential as an average pitcher. Rodney has also perfected the arm action which mimics his fastball’s motion to the tee, causing hitters mass confusion and little time to deliberate on which pitch is coming off the mound. Opponents chased it out of the zone 44% of the time and missed on it completely on over a quarter of their swings. Worley knows his limits. He knows he doesn’t have Verlanderian stuff. He knows he needs to go in-out, up-down, fast-slow in order to keep hitters off of his pitches. Even a new change-up would not turn him into a strikeout pitcher but rather give him one more tool to use to keep opponents at bay. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Gardy.jpg Ron Gardenhire is well on his way to his third-straight 90-loss season but Terry Ryan is not tipping his hand on whether or not the game’s second-longest tenured manager will be back in Minnesota in 2014. On with MLB Network Radio’s Power Alley show, Ryan suggested that injuries to key players played a substantial role in the Twins’ third consecutive losing season but he also shouldered a lot of the blame for the current state of the team. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] “It’s been a difficult year in a lot of areas. We’ve had some injuries and certainly losing a few of these guys for stretches hasn’t helped, particularly a guy like Willingham,” Ryan told Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette on Thursday. “And now Mauer’s down. It seems like we’ve had one big piece here missing.” Willingham, who was a force in the middle of the Twins’ lineup in 2013, has missed 38 games in this season due to injuries and repair the meniscus in his knee. Because of the knee-related issues, when he was on the field, he hit a career-worst .210/.348/.385 in 425 plate appearances, a vast majority of those while hitting either third (232) or clean-up (179). Meanwhile Mauer, who had been the team’s best offensive contributor in 2013, has not seen action since August 19th and has missed now 22 games and counting. Of course, Ryan says, injuries are not special to just the Twins. “We have some good things happen here,” said Ryan, addressing some of what he viewed as positives. “Record-wise isn’t one of them but there are some things here – our bullpen has been pretty good up until, you know, when you overexpose those guys they’re gonna start to falter some, but they’ve been pretty good. And Perkins has anchored that bullpen staff. Regardless of ERA and those types of things, even Correia and Pelfrey, they’ve done what you might want to expect.” One aspect of the team’s performance that Ryan called out was the offense’s inability to score runs, a byproduct of having a .228 average with runners in scoring position. “And some of the offense has been my major concern because we haven’t scored runs,” Ryan noted. “We have had people all over out there and we just haven’t got them in. Now I have to take full responsibility for the roster and Gardy has continued to work and grind and his coaches are tremendous workers. So you take all that into consideration and I’m still at the point now when the season concludes we’ll sit down and figure this out and then we’ll move forward.” Ferrin then pressed Ryan, asking him pointblank if the team is leaning one way or another but Ryan deferred. “Yeah, that is going to have to wait, Mike. It’s one of those things where I’ve promised ownership and our people here and Gardy and the staff down there that once the season concludes we’ll get together and make a final call.” Ryan remains mum on Gardenhire's status but this winter figures to be a busy offseason -- one that could include finding Gardy's replacement. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Denard Span.jpg One of the questions posed on our new TwinsDaily.com message board was how the Twins will account for 200 runs in their runs scored/runs allowed differential over the 2011 season which would bring the club back towards 81 wins and beyond. On the defensive/pitching side of the ledger, Minnesota allowed 804 runs – the second-highest in the American League behind only Baltimore. At the plate, they managed to score just 619 – the second-fewest ahead of only Seattle. It is simple enough: In order to become a competitive team again, this year’s squad needs to shave off runs allowed and increase the runs scored. Yes, the 2011 Twins scored less frequently than your standard World of Warcraft participant but there are plenty of reasons why fans should anticipate a boost in runs scored in 2012. One such reason more offense by the Twins should be expected is because of the overhaul at the top of the order. From this chart below, you can see that based on a team’s ability to get their first two hitters in the order on base regularly, their scoring tendency increased: [TABLE=width: 192, align: center] [TD=colspan: 3]Lead-off & Two-hitter (2011) [/TD] Team On-Base Percentage Runs BOS 0.369 875 NYY 0.355 867 TEX 0.351 855 TBR 0.340 707 TOR 0.335 743 KCR 0.334 730 CWS 0.327 654 LAA 0.321 667 DET 0.320 787 CLE 0.317 704 BAL 0.317 708 OAK 0.316 645 MIN 0.304 619 SEA 0.295 556 [/TABLE] Of course, there are a lot of variables that go into a team’s ability to generate runs that extend just beyond the first two hitters. For example, while the Rays were able to set their table extremely well, the team’s bottom of the order, spots seven through nine, hit a paltry .216/.219/.330 throughout the season. This top heavy production likely cost Tampa some runs over the year. On the other hand, the Detroit Tigers had the opposite effect. Their top of the order, starting with Austin Jackson, had a difficult time getting on base. Instead of getting runners on from the top of the lineup, the middle of Detroit’s order – hitter’s three through six – mashed to the tune of .305/.369/.482. This led to 787 runs, the fourth-highest in the American League last year. With the exception of those outliers, a team’s offense and their performance at the top of the order is fairly intertwined. Obviously, a team like the Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers have a consistent lineup from top to bottom while teams like the Orioles, A’s and Mariners had holes everywhere. A team bursting with hitting is likely going to score more runs. In many ways, the Twins were no different from those bottom-feeding clubs. Injuries diluted the lineup so much it became as potent as a watered-down liquor bottle in the cabinet of a high school kid’s parents’ house. Even with a thin lineup, the 2011 Twins top of the order lacked any means to jumpstart the offense. Denard Span started the season off well but the concussion greatly reduced his production before he was sidelined. His replacement, Ben Revere, was learning on the job and posted a .310 on-base percentage – a very lackluster rate for a leadoff man. In the two-spot, Alexi Casilla posted a .322 on-base percentage but he too was injured and the spot in the order was given most often to Trevor Plouffe, who had a .305 on-base percentage. So even with the dilapidated lineup in the season’s second-half the Twins did not provide the middle-of-the-order much of an opportunity to drive in runs. It is clear that if the team wants to compete in 2011, they need to score runs. With Joe Mauer claiming to be in excellent physical condition this spring and Josh Willingham entering into the picture, the heart of the order should be at the very least incrementally strong than it was a year ago. The trick is having a pair of hitters that can be on base for the big sticks to do their work. While he admits there have been some good days and bad days when it comes to his recovery, for now, there is optimism that Span is ready to go. An owner of a career .361 on-base percentage, when he has been healthy, he’s been one of the game’s best lead-off hitters. Even though he has had a down year in 2010, he appeared to be on the path to a rebound season in 2011: Prior to his collision with Royals catcher Brayan Pena, he was holding an OBP north of his current career rate. Following Span in the order will likely be new addition Jamey Carroll. Carroll is a prototypical number two hitter – able to get on base as well as move runners over by hitting behind them. Provided that he can play serviceable defense in the twilight of his career, he should be a solid contributor out of the two spot. With Span and Carroll as the lineup’s opening acts, the Twins should be climbing the on-base chart and, as such, should be scoring more runs and thereby closing that important 200-run differential chasm. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Deduno.jpg Don’t look now, but Samuel Deduno has not walked a batter yet this spring. I know, I know: It has been five meaningless spring innings. Give it time, right? And, sure, four of those innings were against Spain in the World Baseball Classic, a team whose lineup was littered with players lacking even minor league deals. Pump the brakes, Parker. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] The reality is that last year he handed out more free passes than the gals standing out front of Dream Girls gentlemen’s club. With 121 innings split between Rochester and the Twins, he walked 75, or 14% of all the hitters he faced. Five measly innings of not throwing four balls in a given at-bat is not going to change that fact. His inability to work ahead of hitters put Deduno in many precarious situations in 2012. A whopping 8% of his match-ups resulted in 3-0 counts (league average being 5%). Overall, hitters knew his reputation and refrained from chasing much of anything outside of the strike zone. According to Fangraphs.com Deduno got opponents to chase after just 23.5% of all out-of-zone offerings – the second lowest rate in baseball with a minimum of 70 innings pitched. Here’s the catch: Despite being behind hitters frequently, he was not damaged significantly. He walked plenty, but teams were unable to put the ball in play sharply. Thanks to his incredible movement of his fastball which had an MLB-best 67% ground ball rate, the opposition showed they simply could not square up. Even in situations where they should have an advantage, they were unsuccessful. While the rest of the American League’s pitching staffs had a .299/.465/.513 batting line when behind in the count, Deduno produced a walk-heavy yet respectable .244/.524/.389 line. With his nearly unhittable fastball (not to mention decent curve), Deduno has the foundations to be a very good pitcher. The giant elephant on his chest is his incapability to throw the ball over the plate consistently. Behind the small sample size, there may be some reason why he is throwing the ball better. Look how free and easy his motion is – particularly his finish - while in the World Baseball Classic compared to last season: Download attachment: Sam2.gif Download attachment: Sam3.gif Download attachment: Sam4.gif Notice the “Francisco Liriano” twirl with his back leg after his follow through. He is finishing higher with his upper body. This is the follow through of someone who is not over-thinking, not aiming, not over-throwing on every pitch. He’s just letting it fly, as they say. Maybe that is all that it takes with him to achieve that next level. Then again, who is to say that this will carry over to the season? At 29 years old, he’s had numerous opportunities to try to get his walk rate in order and failed. Frankly, Deduno represents a fringe player; one whose skill set can get him near the top level but never fully entrench him into a starting rotation. That said, it is still important for a an organization to have a pitcher like Deduno available. As Russell Charlton’s research at Baseball Prospectus showed that pitchers who have had previous injuries have high odds of a reoccurrence. For example, pitchers who have had elbow injuries have had a 27.4% chance of re-injury. That means three-fifths of the projected rotation - Vance Worley, Scott Diamond and Mike Pelfrey – stand the likelihood of spending time on the DL in 2013. If Deduno is able to harness his control, he could be a valuable contributor in some capacity. Deduno will get the start for the Dominican Republic on Thursday, taking on a far superior Team USA lineup. Watch his command, walk total and scrutinize his mechanics – if he is throwing free and easy, it could translate to a rough day for Team USA in the WBC. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Danny Valencai.jpg After punishing spring training pitchers and promoting himself this offseason, Danny Valencia’s output in the regular season has left something to be desired. Coming off a down year in 2011 and made promises of rebounding and rededicating himself for this season. Rather than coming out the gates to a hot start, he now finds himself on the hot seat poised to lose starts. What has gone wrong for the Twins third baseman? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In 2011, I attributed his sudden decline to a bit of the “sophomore slump monster” – one in which his line drive rate remained relatively consistent with his previous season but the amount of hits that found grass declined significantly. In 2010, he held a solid .771 batting average on his line drives. This past season his batting average on liners dropped to .651, well below the league average. The theory was, if he produced line drives at the near 20% rate he had over the past two seasons, this would likely equal out for the better. Unfortunately, both Valencia’s plate discipline and his wellspring of ropes have substantially decline so far in 2012. Addressing the latter first, Valencia has traded the once prevalent liners for a bunch of bounding grounders and harmless infield pop-ups. To date, his line drive rate has checked in slightly below the 14% mark while his ground ball rate has ballooned to 52%. However, when he does get underneath the ball, he has provided little damage, knocking 33% of his fly balls to infielders. Meanwhile, Valencia’s patience at the plate is about as thin as a fungo bat. In addition to swinging at a high clip this season, he’s chasing a heavy volume of pitches outside of the strike zone. According to Fangraphs.com’s plate discipline numbers, he has offered at 42% of all out-of-zone pitches, well above the league’s 29% norm. With that lack of zone discipline, it is clear why he has only coaxed one walk compared to 17 strikeouts. Between his contact and his plate discipline, the outcome for him has been laughably bad: a .220/.230/.339 hitting line that has incited calls from fans to see more Sean Burroughs, who has not seen regular playing time since 2005, on the field. How did it get so bad for Valencia? The Twins coaching staff attempted to correct a hitch this offseason, which they said added a longer loop to his swing, as well as encourage his to stop fixating on pulling the ball and hoping that it would improve his .246 batting average in 2011. This spring 1500ESPN.com’s Phil Mackey spoke with Valencia who claimed that one of his goals this year was to use the entire field better. And, so far, Valencia is failing at that objective. Thus far in 2012, heading into Tuesday night’s game, Valencia had put 44 balls into play and has taken seven of those to the opposite field. While the 16% opposite field rate isn’t disappointing in itself (after all, in his solid 2010 season, he went oppo just 19% of the time), it is that pitchers have consistently baited the Twins third baseman into swinging at pitches on the outer-half of the strike zone and yet he has pulled the ball at a high margin (52%). Compare these two swing charts. In his first stint at the major league level (on the left), the Valencia scouting report was not completely disseminated and, as such, he received a high portion of inside and middle of the zone type pitches. In 2012 (on the right), the word has spread throughout the league and opponents know that Valencia is susceptible when being pitched away – specifically from right-handed pitchers. Download attachment: Valencia_Pitch Charts.jpg (from TexasLeaguers.com) This season, with pitchers attacking the outside portion of the plate, Valencia has maintained a questionable aggressive approach (swinging at a career-high 47% clip) and has also kept his pull-happy tendencies in spite of opponents begging him to go with the pitch. Because he is swinging at so many pitches on the outer-half of the plate while trying to pull them, it is easy to see why his groundball rate has swelled so quickly. Valencia has demonstrated that he can be a high average, moderate power hitter in the minors and in segments of his major league career. What is needed is a re-calibration of the strike zone. Perhaps his early slump has caused him to press harder at the plate, swing more frequently with disregard for location, and forget the main focus of the off-season – to hit the ball to all fields. Let’s remember that it is early in the season and there is plenty of time to turn it all around. Still, with his continued insistence on pulling almost every pitch, frustration is mounting from the manager and Valencia’s playing time is quite possibly hanging by a very thin thread at this juncture. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: buxton+kcrg.jpg Stop me if you have heard this before but Byron Buxton is doing stupid good stuff on the baseball field. Already Buxton has proven that he is far and above the level of the competition in the Midwest League. He is leading the league in on-base percentage (.431), slugging (.561), runs scored (65) and weighted on-base average (.422). More conventionally, he is second in batting average (.344) and triples (8), and third in walks (40). That doesn't even begin to scratch the surface of his defensive capabilities and baserunning prowess. Buxton is having the best performance by an outfielder in Iowa since Shoeless Joe Jackson came waltzing through the cornfield (or at least since Mike Trout anyways). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] During Fox Sports North’s road trip to Cedar Rapids last week, televisions in the big cities were able to tune in and see what amounts to one of the at any level this year. In case the video clip does not allow you to fully appreciate the difficulty of this catch, please follow along Buxton’s route to the kill what was most assuredly an extra base hit coming off the bat. From mid-center field, Buxton races to the gap, hooks at the end of the route, and makes a leaping dive just before the warning track to send the hitter back to the dugout, shaking his head in disbelief and dismay. This play would have netted him 15,000 UZRs in my book. Download attachment: BuxtonsRoute.jpg In fact, thanks to his performance, Buxton has put Cedar Rapids back on the map for the first time since, well, since the time someone actually penciled Cedar Rapids on a map. Buxton has more speed than the entire Fast & Furious franchise. He has more tools than Home Depot. His future is so bright that we will excuse him when he wears sunglasses indoors, even though that is the douchiest move ever. The Twins and scouts will tell you that they knew this would his path from day one. From the moment they laid eyes on him kicking up dust rounding the bases in the Georgia clay they knew he was special. When it comes to drafting players, Terry Ryan said that the scouts are looking for skills rather than results. Buxton, said Ryan, had all the skills. Not some: all the skills. It would only be a matter of time before this kid turns into a full-blown super-duper-star. Of course, that’s not the case. It takes plenty of conditioning during his ascent through the minor leagues to develop any player into a major-league ready contributor. Rarely can a player simply advance without the necessary prep time and work. While Buxton came to the Twins organization teeming with talent, there are adjustments the 19-year-old has made – particularly to his approach at the plate. Prior to his draft Buxton was on the radars of all the prospect hounds. In this , we see Buxton, a few months away from his national selection, putting on a display in front of scouts: http://i44.tinypic.com/msyhhk.gif Look at the length of that stride. With an upright and open stance, Buxton has a significant leg lift and then brings it in. This generates power but leaves him susceptible to more polished pitching. Now, compare that approach to his current model, a little over a year later, in this clip supplied by Heinitz Photography: http://i41.tinypic.com/2rh39lu.gif Buxton now exhibits a widened base with little stride in his swing. Mechanically speaking, this reduces the potential head movement and should improve contact -- which is very important for someone with his speed. He will soon be the Florida State League’s problem – whose pitchers are just recovering from the destruction left behind by Hurricane Sano – but Buxton’s ability to make large scale adjustments to improve his long-term effectiveness bodes well. While the scouts get a lot of adulation for finding and signing Buxton, credit as well goes to the Twins instructors and coaches for refining what could be a once-in-a-lifetime-type talent. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Phil Hughes.jpg Phil Hughes has been somewhat of an indecisive pitcher over his career when it comes to his repertoire. Year in and year out, there has been an inability to choose a secondary pitch. While it has mainly been a big, slow curve, it has seen several variations followed by abandonment in 2013 in favor of a slider. Hughes’ Year of the Slider produced mixed results as opponents struggled against his new weapon in the season’s first-half, hitting just .160 off it, but then the competition zeroed in and smashed it around to the tune of .360 in the last half of the year. This spring, after a year of opting for the hard slider, 2014 will be the Return of the Curve (also a great follow-up single for Mark Morrison). [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] If you google “Phil Hughes curveball”, you will find several pieces dating back to 2009 that are dedicated to his bender. When Hughes was one of the game’s top prospects in the Yankees’ farm system, Baseball America raved about curveball. Prior to the 2007 season, as River Avenue Blues cited in 2010, Baseball America’s prospectors were elated when Hughes decided to forget the slider for the big curve: The bipolar relationship with his curveball followed him throughout his major league career as well. In 2009, the Yankees asked him to change his curve from the low-70s loop for a more “power curve” as Hughes described it. It would be fashioned off the same curve that Mike Mussina and AJ Burnett threw at that time, with the same arm speed as his fastball. After averaging 71 and 72-miles per hour on the curve in 2007 and 2008, respectively, he was averaging 77 on the curve in 2009. Two years later in 2011, Hughes was again trying to reinvent his curve. After not getting the results he wanted on the pitch, Yankees pitching coach Larry Rothschild made the suggestion to switch his grip from the knuckle or spike-curve to a more standard curve grip. The reasoning was that Hughes felt opponents were tracking the pitch out of his hand, and this change would give him that harder break the Yankees believed would benefit him. In 2012, he admitted to throwing two variations of the pitch, one from a different arm slot to change things up. Last year, his concern that hitters were picking up the curve out of his hand forced him,at the behest of the Yankees, towards the slider to allow him to throw more east-west across the strike zone. Overall, the curve never became the big weapon that Baseball America projected almost a decade ago. Since 2009, only 105 of his 575 strikeouts have come on his curve -- a vast majority these have come on the fastball (337). Part of that is simply a pitch selection decision, since he threw his fastball three times more often in two strike counts. Is that because of lack of faith in his secondary pitch or just knowing his fastball is superior? Did the Yankees’ constant tinkering add to that as well? Download attachment: Phil Hughes2.jpg In addition to returning to the curve, it also appears Hughes will be using the spike-curve again (as seen in his Twins spring training debut photo above). With the exception of the 2011 alteration to the standard grip, Hughes has favored this variation over his career. What’s more, from 2009 to the end of 2012, ESPN/tru media’s pitch database shows that his curve has dropped -8.2 inches, one of the biggest drops in the game. That has not equaled success, to be sure, as his well-hit average of .174 has been one of the highest among qualified starters (and well above the curveball average of .137). The Twins are eager to see if Hughes can rekindle the curve, believing the change in speed will help him overall. We don’t know how it will work, but we know that Hughes has been down this road before with mixed results. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Pelfrey.jpg When the New York Mets drafted Mike Pelfrey out of Wichita State with the ninth overall pick in 2005, their scouting department was obviously enamored by his big body, big fastball and big projectability. He would develop a breaking ball and become the ace Flushing had not seen in a while. Of course, the latter never happened for Pelfrey; instead he struggled to find a semblance of a swing-and-miss pitcher, became the embodied disappointment of Mets fans, had his elbow ligament snap and wound up in Minnesota. Quite the different career path than was envisioned for him eight years ago. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Now, a free agent coming off a middling season (5-13, 5.19 ERA), CBSsports.com’s Jon Heyman, who has a close relationship with agent Scott Boras, reports that the Twins have extended a multi-year offer: So… [slams laptop closed. Goes for a long walk.] This is all confusing. The Twins recognize they have a serious problem with their starting rotation - a rotation that has failed to miss bats at a historic rate in the modern era - but continue to pursue the same type of starting pitcher that has created the problem to begin with. As mentioned before, due to his lack of secondary offerings, even a fully healthy Mike Pelfrey fails to miss bats at even the league average rate. Over his career, he has a swinging strike rate of 5.9% while the rest of the game has been closer to 9%. I thought we had an understanding here. I thought Jack Goin, the Twins’ manager of Major League Administration and Baseball Research, had sat Terry Ryan down and explained that strikeouts were not only NOT fascist, they were good and that having a lot of them made your starting rotation better. So, why Pelfrey again? The objective should be to look at your 2013 starting rotation real closely then target all the pitchers whose skill sets are the exact opposite. Ok, that may be a large overcorrection but, still, why Pelfrey again? It is entirely possible that Pelfrey’s agent is using Heyman and the Twins to drum up additional interest in his client. After all, the Twins have not confirmed that there is a two-year offer out to Pelfrey right now. That being said, at the end of last year the Twins coaching staff and Terry Ryan lauded Pelfrey’s second-half improvements. Manager Ron Gardenhire said in September that he believed a lot of Pelfrey’s problems in the later part of the year, such has too many 3-2 counts and long delays between pitches, were easily fixable. The Twins said they liked seeing Pelfrey’s velocity increase, which it did from 91.9 in the first-half to 92.7 in the second-half. Gardenhire mentioned specifically that Pelfrey’s secondary pitches improved over the course of the year as his elbow healed, which was true in that opponents had a .700 OPS against his secondary pitches in the first-half while they had a .588 OPS in the second. The biggest thing that may be the key as to why the Twins would entertain the notion of bringing Pelfrey back is the huge swing in a statistic that hides behind paywalls called “well-hit average”. This statistic tries to add description to a pitcher’s (or hitter’s) batted balls that goes beyond just the line drive, ground ball and fly ball categories. Video scouts from various companies such as Inside Edge or BIS log whether that ground ball out was smoked to second or a harmless chopper. In theory, when used in conjunction with a regularly distributed stat like batting average on balls in play (BABIP), it should provide insight as to whether a pitcher’s inflated/deflated BABIP was truly unlucky or not. In Pelfrey’s case, consider the difference on balls in play between the first half of the year and the second half. During the first stretch, Pelfrey was banged around to the tune of .313/.359/.478 over 16 games. According to ESPN’s Stats & Info Department, he carried a well-hit average of .222 -- the highest among all starters with the exception of Joe Blanton (.235). That’s a straight-up beating by hitters. Taking the well-hit average into account, there is no risk of miscategorizing his first-half as “unlucky”. Several things played a factor in these results but a recovering rebuilt elbow was likely the most significant hindrance. Admittedly, Pelfrey lacks the necessary secondary offerings to be a truly effective top-of-the-rotation starter, but his strong assortment of fastballs lacked command post-surgery which should be an expected side effect in Tommy John recoveries. So, after 16 starts and a back strain that took him down for two weeks, Pelfrey actually rebounded quite well over the second half. Over his last 13 games, hitters posted a much improved .284/.356/.374 batting line that was built on a well-hit average of .134, one of the league’s best in the latter portion of the season. I know. That doesn’t feel right, right? I triple-checked to make sure I had the stats sorted correctly. Did hitters really not hit the ball as well off Pelfrey as they did against such pitching dignitaries as Ricky Nolasco (.137), Hasashi Iwakuma (.140) or Francisco Liriano (.143) in the second-half of the season, as the aforementioned well-hit statistic suggests? Several things to mention here: (1) Because this statistic resides mainly behind paywalls, the well-hit average has not been vetted thoroughly by sabr-minded people. This means studies have not been conducted to determine how the well-hit average fluctuates from year-to-year. Is Pelfrey’s second-half decrease a true indication that he was pitching better and that this performance will continue? (2) Even with the significantly improved well-hit average, the end product was an ugly 1-6 record with a rotund 4.76 ERA and a near .300 batting average in the second-half that contributed to the overall blah year. (3) Who knows if the Twins have examined him from this perspective. The organization clearly has access to these reports so they should put this into consideration if thinking about r-signing him. If they have broken it down to this level, I would be more accepting of an eventual Mike Pelfrey re-signing. In the end, going through this exercise reassured me that there is some small, faint glimmer of hope that the notion of bringing back Mike Pelfrey is not a completely bonehead move. If he signs for a two-year, $8M per deal similar to the average annual value of Jason Vargas, Pelfrey has proven in the past that he can be a mid-rotation guy (albeit one without the sexy strikeouts) and the second-half numbers could be indications that he will be that again in 2014. But that’s it, that’s the ceiling: a mid-rotation guy. The Twins rotation and fans need more than that. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: JoeMauer.jpg After a slow start in the season’s opening week, Joe Mauer was once again cracking line drives – right on schedule – but has more recently found himself in one of the worst stretches of offensive baseball of his career and quite possibly the worst since he was a fetus. Pardon the arbitrary endpoints, but from April 6 to April 20, Mauer had collected 18 hits in 35 at bats (a whopping .514 batting average). In that time, the Twins catcher was blistering the baseball to the opposite field, accumulating five of his seven extra base hits in that direction, including both of his home runs (per the Mauer norm). Then, as quick as the flick of his wrists for an outer-half offering, his production disappeared. Since April 21, he has he has gotten just three hits (including Tuesday night’s single off of Verlander) in his last 33 at bats, making this nine-game span’s batting average a puny .090. According to Fangraphs.com’s Splits Leaderboard, over the last seven days Mauer’s .077 batting average is the fourth-worst in baseball, besting only Drew Stubbs, Ryan Raburn and Adam LaRoche. While it may be easy to dismiss this output as a product of the baseball gods correcting his absurd balls in play average over the previous stretch, Mauer’s drought may be structurally based. Far be it from me to deconstruct one of the smoothest, most mechanically sound swings the game has ever seen. That would be like a St Cloud State art major trying to criticize the painting on the ceiling of the Sistine Chapel. Ron Coomer, on the other hand, presented his thoughts on what has suddenly happened to this beautiful motion. During last night’s broadcast on Fox Sports North, Coomer observed that Mauer is opening up slightly, thereby elongating his swing. This, he said, altered the contact point to some extent and has been causing him to not square up on the ball. It is hard to see clear evidence of this in available video clips yet there is no denying Mauer has recently taken some of his most un-Mauerian cuts ever at pitches and those have resulted in very few line drives over his last 33 at bats. In fact, last night’s line drive single was just the second line drive he has hit since April 21. Hell, over the weekend we nearly witnessed him pop out to the infield – an event that has occurred just once in the last three seasons. Consider this awkward swing in this screen grab from his strike out last night: Download attachment: MauerVVerlander.jpg Notice how far Mauer’s head moved offline in order to track Verlander’s curveball. Full disclosure, Justin Verlander makes a lot of great hitters look stupid. That said, Joe Mauer - with his career 1.072 OPS against Verlander - is typically not one of them. To Coomer’s point, Mauer has taken more swings at pitches middle and in during this cold streak compared to his hot streak in which he had swung at more pitches middle and away – the kinds he was driving to left field. Part of the reason for the increase on the swings on the inner-half of the plate could be due to pulling off the ball a bit. Download attachment: Mauer.gif Teams have also changed their approach with him. Perhaps the reports from the advanced scouts indicated that there was less concern with Mauer at this point because, beginning in the Rangers series, opponents simply stopped missing the strike zone. In his 14 games leading up to April 26, pitchers had landed 59% of their pitches for strikes against him. Since then, that rate has shot up to 76%. So, he has been seeing tons of potentially hittable pitches. What is going on with Minnesota’s $184 Million Dollar Hit Man? The simplest answer is that it is a short time frame and everyone is susceptible to these statistical anomalies in a small sample size, which in this case, is 38 plate appearances. Within that regression lie a handful of drivers that are pulling his numbers down – a subtle mechanical flaw here, poor swing decisions there and strike zone aggressiveness of the opposition. Success in baseball is fluid. Those like Mauer who have been able to hit consistently over .300 in their careers are able to do so because they can make changes and corrections relatively quickly. If we all just take a deep breath, at some point in the near future he will snap out of this dry spell. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Hughes.jpg There are plenty of reasons to celebrate this impending Phil Hughes deal as a coup for the Twins. After all, Hughes is a relatively young pitcher who has potential upside and, as a fly ball pitcher, he finally gets to leave the launching pad in the Bronx (not to mention, away from the beasts of the east). For an average annual value of $8M, a value he has eclipsed in three of the past five seasons according to Fangraphs.com, it is hard to find a downside. In terms of the configurations of Yankee Stadium and Target Field, there’s no question that Yankee Stadium’s layout vastly favors the hitter, particularly for the left-handed swingers. In the Bronx, the right field porch seemingly looms just a few feet past the infield while in Minnesota, Target Field’s right field walls require distance and height to clear safely. So it should not come as a surprise that, in terms of true home runs distance measured by HitTrackerOnline.com, Yankee Stadium’s average home run distance has been 386.2 feet while Target Field has been at 394.1 feet. As Hughes’s former Yankee teammate Nick Swisher once observed about the Twins’ home park, it takes a man to put one out to the right field seats. The natural conclusion as applied to Hughes is that the transition from Yankee Stadium (where 76 of his career 112 home runs have been served) to Target Field will yield significant improvements to his results. In theory, even if a few of the would-be home runs in New York become off-the-wall doubles in Minnesota, Hughes’ totals figure to be better. While the statistically inclined community will nod at that hypothesis, those in New York who have witnessed Hughes’ career in person -- both those who emphasize stats and otherwise -- portray him differently. Part of that may be due to the overhyped expectations of a prospect coupled with various injuries that have taken him out of commission. Nationally, Baseball Prospectus’ annuals have documented a telling curve on how Hughes has been viewed. In the 2006 edition, there was excitement surrounding what could be a 20-year-old starter in the Yankees organization who had the potential to reach Double-A, a considerable feat in the deep New York system. By 2013 the staff from BP summarized the sentiments by writing “If Yankees fans could only forget that Hughes was ever expected to be an ace, they might be happier with him.” Sandwiched between 2006 and 2013, the analyses focused on Hughes’ oft-injured resume and swimming upstream against the hitter-friendly environs of Yankee Stadium. Yankee Stadium or no Yankee Stadium, when hitters have connected, the ball has jumped off their bats. Since 2012, his well-hit average against of .202 is much higher than the league average of .179. While balls have not become souvenirs on the road as frequently, teams have been able to knock him around during stretches of his career which is why he has not exactly matched his prospect hype. The scouting report on Hughes: As goes his fastball, so goes Hughes. His fastball has been unquestionably a solid weapon for him over the last two seasons. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he has had the best strike percentage with his fastball among all qualified pitchers at 72.2% (minimum 500 thrown). Attacking the strike zone is something the Twins coaching staff has encouraged from their pitchers but, unlike the consortium of Twins starters the past several years, Hughes has missed bats with his heater as well as just throwing it over the plate. Since 2012, Hughes' 18.6% miss percentage on his fastball has been the 14th-highest in baseball. To put that in perspective, the rest of the league carries a 14.6% miss percentage on their fastballs. Of course, it is when he does not have the command or hitters don’t miss his fastball that he begins to have issues. Lacking the plus secondary offering to miss bats at a high level, if opponents are able to sit on the fastball, they have hit it hard. In the past two years, hitters have levied a .226 well-hit average off his fastball, compared to the .209 MLB average. Not having a complementary secondary pitch has been frequently cited as the reason Hughes has never accumulated strikeouts in bunches (a career rate of 19%, equaling the MLB average) and why his fastball has so often been launched deep into the New York night. Hughes changed his approach in 2013, eschewing a slow curve that was hit hard for a harder slider to alter his style from a north-south pitcher (fastball/curve) to having a pitch that runs from side-to-side. Previously armed with a cutter, the terrible outcome with that pitch convinced him to reduce its use and he increased the usage of his slider to 23.8%. Early, the results were strong. In the first-half of last season, opponents hit just .160 off the newly resurrected pitch. However, perhaps with the element of surprise removed, in the second-half of the season, hitters began to recognize the slider more and hit .324 on it. So while the upside involves Hughes’ results being improved from pitching in a new home, the downside is that he continues to have a second-pitch identity crisis and has not found a suitable partner for his fastball. The limited success of his repertoire has made critics think he is better suited for the bullpen where his two-pitch combination can thrive in short stints. (Consider this: last season Hughes averaged just five innings per start and, over his career, he has been just a half-inning better.) Where does this leave Hughes’ future with the Twins? Going back to the 2013 Baseball Prospectus comment, it is the hype that clouded the previous judgement on Hughes rather than seeing him for what he is, which is an above average starter. Certainly injuries that have plagued him throughout his professional career could come into play again and his arsenal could give him fits, but he should provide value equal to or exceeding the team-friendly contract over three years even if he simply matches his performance in New York -- in a park environment better suited for his skill set, no less. The Twins should come out winners on this one. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Francisco+Liriano+Chicago+Cubs+v+Minnesota+oGVu6ac_L_hl.jpg Ever since his demotion to the bullpen, Francisco Liriano has been back to his new-old self. In 37.1 innings, Liriano has posted a much improved 2.41 ERA, limited hitters to a .157 average against and has struck out 40 while walking just 14 thanks to rekindling his relationship with his dirty, dirty slider. Nevertheless, even with the improvement, the Twins front office has to be considering moving the enigmatic starter at the upcoming trade deadline because of the current state of the organization and the $12 million price tag required to offer him in arbitration in order to secure a compensatory draft pick. If the Twins are committed to rebuilding and strengthening the organization for several years instead of just next year, trading the rejuvenated Liriano makes complete sense. The question is what sort of return could the Twins expect at the deadline? [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] FoxSports.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted yesterday that his club sources told him that officials expect “robust” interest in Liriano based on his recent performance. With the added Wild Card berth granted this year, clearly more teams will consider themselves buyers rather than sellers and the deadline. And, if what Morosi said is accurate, Liriano’s value is elevated by a number of clubs competing for his service and the Twins return should be expectedly more substantial. Of course, it is not quite that cut-and-dry. For starters, Liriano’s impending free agency undoubtedly drives his return down. After all, we’re not talking a Cliff Lee/CC Sabathia-type track record that would merit a team unloading multiple prospects for the half-season rental. Liriano has just six consecutive starts in which he’s pitched well. Furthermore, even though he has not shown it this season, he remains an injury concern. Since 2001, there seems to be just a few trades that occurred at the non-waiver deadline that are comparable to the Twins if they choose to move Liriano by himself (if they add players to the trade, all bets are off). On July 28th, 2010, the 56-44 Chicago White Sox were clinging to a one-game lead over the Twins and looking to further distance themselves by adding some starting pitching. Sox GM Kenny Williams targeted the Arizona Diamondbacks’ hard-throwing right-handed, 26-year-old Edwin Jackson. Jackson, who had worked 397.1 innings with a 27-20 record along with a 3.99 ERA the previous two seasons, was not finding the National League nearly as accommodating as Tampa Bay or Detroit. In 21 starts with the Arizona club in 2010, he went 6-10 with a 5.16 ERA while walking four batters per nine innings – his highest rate since 2007. Despite that performance, Chicago’s lust for a winner and Jackson’s recent success combined with a 94 mile per hour fastball incited Williams to pull the trigger by sending their third and eighth highest ranking prospects according to Baseball America in right-handed starter Dan Hudson and lefty David Holmberg. Hudson has been extremely valuable in Arizona, going 26-14 in 52 starts with a very nice 3.47 ERA while striking out 273 and walking just 78 in 345.1 innings pitched. Holmberg, meanwhile, has turned 20 years old this year but is a fast-moving prospect in the Dback’s system. In his stop at high-A Visalia he struck out 86 batters in 78.1 innings and was bumped to AA Mobile. What’s the likelihood of this scenario playing out for the Twins? I wouldn’t hold my breath. Unlike Liriano, Jackson was under contract at the time and due to make a reasonable sum of $8.35 million in 2011 and he had also never showed much injury potential making his acquisition seemingly less risky than Liriano. Still, never underestimate a GM who reeks of desperation for a winner, as Williams proved, who was willing to flip a productive and club-controlled pitcher for one they felt could contribute immediately. If the Jackson-for-Hudson trade is at one end of the potential spectrum (the “hey, wouldn’t it be great if…” end of the spectrum) at the other end is the Kyle Lohse-to-Philly trade in 2007 (the “hey, this feels about right” end). That year, the Phillies, who had finished second in the NL East for three consecutive seasons and were denied playoff berths, wanted to improve their starting rotation. Curiously enough, they tapped into Cincinnati’s Lohse who had been traded from Minnesota to the Reds one year ago to the day. In Lohse, the Phillies were receiving a 28-year-old right-hander who had seen a steady decline in his performance since his solid 2003 season – although his record while in Cincinnati was more reflective of his lack of run support, receiving below average offense in his time with the Reds. In exchange, Philadelphia shipped a left-handed pitcher who was tearing up the lower ranks of their system: 23-year-old Matt Maloney. Although Lohse is nothing like Liriano in terms of style – Liriano’s ceiling and floor is wildly different than Lohse’s had been up to that point - their situations share similarities. For instance, when traded, Lohse would be paid a prorated share of his $4.2 million salary, not all too different from Liriano’s $5.5 million. Both were reasonable contracts to assume but potential trade partners likely recognize that the current teams (the Reds and Twins respectively) were not planning on retaining either pitcher. As Twins fans know by now, Maloney never quite panned out but back in 2007, he was an interesting commodity for Cincinnati. As Baseball America pointed out, Maloney had just come off a season in the South Atlantic League in which he was named Pitcher of the Year thanks to leading the league in wins (16), innings (169) and strikeouts (180) and finishing a close second in ERA (2.03). Since they were going to lose Lohse to free agency likely anyways, landing an intriguing arm in exchange seemed like a fair compensation. Obviously, it is hard to predict what the market with do for Liriano with a month remaining to the deadline. If he continues his current output, it is easy to see more teams jumping into the fray (such as the Toronto Blue Jays who Nick Nelson wrote about today) and perhaps push offers up towards the Daniel Hudson level. However, if he falters a bit, his stock likely drops to the Maloney-prospect-gamble range. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Main.jpg Not long ago, we had to sell my grandmother’s house. As part of the purging process, a box filled with newspapers from the Minnesota Twins’ championship seasons in 1987 and 1991 were discovered. The newspapers, still reeking of the stale cigarette smoke that saturated her entire dwelling, are pure gold.(1) As the resident family baseball-phile, the archive was entrusted to me. Without much to do with the box, other than keep it away from fire - paper’s worst enemy - the only other thing I could think about doing with them is sharing the important snippets. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]Today we go back to the happenings of October 12, 1987, as reported from the October 13, 1987 Star Tribune. **** When closer Jeff Readon corralled the Matt Nokes comebacker and ran it towards the looming Kent Hrbek before flipping him the ball and then following his throw into his first baseman’s arms, the Twins were poised to return to baseball’s biggest stage 22 years after being beaten by the Los Angeles Dodgers. In the Twins clubhouse at Tiger Stadium, Star Tribune staff writer Doug Grow followed the team’s alcohol-soaked celebration. Gaetti would finish the championship series 6-for-20 (.300) but have two home runs in the first game of the series(2). Those two were collected off Detroit’s starter and big mid-season acquisition, Doyle Alexander, who cost the Tigers one John Smoltz. Following the game, staff writers Mark Vancil and Dennis Brackin got Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek’s feelings on being one step away from being the best in baseball: The disbelief in a team that had squeaked out an 85-77 season - one that had gone 29-52 away from the covered stadium - and had somehow conquered the 98-win Tigers, on their turf no less, permeated everywhere. Columnist Jim Klobuchar summarized the thoughts on this ragtag bunch nicely: Neat. Outdated fat jokes. As for Gaetti, yes, he had one of his worst offensive months of the season in September, finishing the final month with a .243/.287/.393 slash after hitting .260/.307/.505 prior to that. Certainly, the Twins stunned plenty of people including former sports columnist turned radio host Dan Barreiro. This Barreiro had been incredibly incredulous that this assortment could withstand the onslaught of the favored Tigers - specifically because of the Twins’ tendency of being “domesick” when away from the home confines. Barreiro lists twenty reasons why this series victory was improbable including: Barreiro, always the instigator, would also point out that manager Tom Kelly’s gamble to move starter Bert Blyleven up to Game 5 rather than go with Joe Niekro or Les Straker paid off. Had it backfired and the Tigers come away with a win, Kelly would have been forced to use either Niekro or Straker in Game 6 and have Frank Viola as the insurance policy in the event of Game 7, rather than just set his rotation for a more conventional Blyleven/Viola combination for the series’ last two games. The moral of the story? Tom Kelly has balls. Another one of Barreiro’s reasons for the improbable win was the pick-off of the Tigers’ veteran Darrell Evans at third during the sixth inning of Game 4 (the Tigers would lose 5-3). The sports page’s most tenured columnist, Sid Hartman, wrote a lot of notes(4), including one that had quoted (for some reason, I guess) legendary Michigan football coach Bo Schembechler who defended the Tigers’ Darrell Evans’ play. Gaetti explained how the play went down to Hartman: But what about the celebration back in the Twin Cities? Everyone knows that the Twins returned home from Detroit to a Metrodome that was filled to the brim with rabid fans, eager to cheer on the hometown team. Star Tribune reporters Norman Draper and Kurt Chandler documented the pandamonium. The Twins landed at the airport at 10:05 PM and were police escorted downtown to the stadium. The team’s postseason coordinator Jaime Lowe, said that they anticipated 4,000 to 6,000 people when they started planning the event - and there was even a bit of concern there would be no one to greet them. How wrong they were. Prior to letting the gates open, a crush of fans descended to the gates and the raucous mob waved Homer Hankies and screamed while a Dixieland Band played “Take Me Out to the Ballgame.” Officials allowed people in an hour earlier than expected to allow an estimated 55,000 fans stream in. Elsewhere, at Champp’s Sports Cafe(5) in Richfield, where the venue was overflowing with fans watching the clinching game and enjoying what is assumed to be adult beverages. The interviews with patrons reveal some of the enduring Minnesota mindset that has plagued citizens of the states through the ages. Yup. Loserville. What was the scene like inside the bar when the Twins got that final out in Detroit? For the impending World Series, whose National League challenger had yet to be determined, fans lit up the Twins ticket office to get their hands on the state’s most sought after seats since 1965. Employees, however, had to inform the callers that they would need to go to Dayton’s department store in order to procure tickets.(6) This sales process is unfathomable to the younger generation. Think about it. Instead of being able to log into the team’s website from the comfort of your own home (let alone pay over the phone), you had to physically go to a building and wait in line. With other people. Germs and awkward conversation. The horror. That night, the temperature dropped to a crisp 35-degrees as fans camped out in front of one of seven area Dayton’s locations. In play, reports Jon Jeter and Norman Draper, were tickets mainly for upper deck outfield and a few lower level locations. $20 or $30? Twenty-six years later, SeatGeek.com says you can purchased hypothetical Detroit Tigers World Series tickets for a small fee of $300. Times have a-changed. **** (1) The discovery of the box also made me realize that when I am forced out of my home or go tits-up and my kids and grandkids come to clean the clutter, no one will find any newspapers. At best? Tons of crappy DVDs which I haven’t figured out how to get rid of and the sight of which makes me furious for being so frivolous with my money. Who the hell needs to own two copies of American Pie 2? (2) It was somewhat of an odd decision to choose Gaetti considering the numbers Brunansky had put up. Bruno matched The Rat’s home run total (2) but had driven in nine to Gaetti’s five and gone 7-for-17 (.412). Star Tribune staff writer Dennis Brackin would point to Gaetti’s intangibles, including the call for the Darrell Evans pick-off in Game 4 and acting as a sparkplug for initiating the scoring in Game 1 by homering in his first two series at-bats. Still, while he got to drink out of the same trophy, Bruno missed out on the added $25,000 bonus Gaetti received for winning the award. (3) The left-handed Dan Schatzeder, who the Twins had acquired in June for Tom Schwarz and Danny Clay, had been atrocious in Minnesota. In 43.2 innings, he allowed 64 hits and 37 runs. The reason why his four and a third scoreless ball was so remarkable is that in his 30 appearances for the Twins, he only had 13 clean innings. Oh, and left-handed hitters had hit .353/.405/.515 off of him in that time as well making people question why Anderson was afraid to turn to his lefty bench bats. (4) Another one of Hartman’s notes included the Twins desire to bring back impending free agents in reliever Juan Berenguer and designated hitter Don Baylor. Hartman pointed out that Berenguer took a “$200,000” pay cut to sign with the Twins while GM Andy McPhail was quoted as wanting to pursue Baylor but admitted the team wouldn’t be able to match his $850,000 salary in 1988. In the end, the Twins re-signed Berenguer to a three-year, $1.875M contract while Baylor walked, later signing with Oakland for $495,000. Berenger pitched in 164 games during that contract and had a 3.61 ERA. Baylor would hit just .220/.332/.326 with the A’s in 92 games (he would get hit by a pitch 12 times at the plate). (5) Ask John Bonnes about their special dipping sauce and watch his face light up like it is effin’ Christmas morning. (6) Kids, once upon a time Macy’s was once called Dayton’s. Click here to view the article

Last season, the switch-hitting Alexi Casilla had produced at a very good rate against right-handed pitching. In 247 plate appearances in the left-handed batter’s box, he hit .274/.350/.400 – not too shabby for a middle infielder. This was a significant improvement for someone who had hit .228/.299/.320 from the left-side over the two previous seasons (2009 and 2010) in 314 plate appearances. Most analysts would likely dismiss his 2011 breakout as a statistical glitch of the effects of a small sample galaxy in comparison to his vast universe of career suck-i-tude. Meanwhile, before this season started I presented the argument that Casilla, at the ripe baseball age of 27, was finally ready to breakout. Based upon his mechanical changes he made in 2011 and his impressive winter ball performance which yielded some very good numbers, I was optimistic that Casilla would more than earn his $1.4 million payday and pick up where he left off in July of 2011. Of course, rather than being motivated to prove my thesis correct, Casilla continued to do his best Luis Rivas impersonation. After posting a career-best 750 OPS against right-handed pitching in 2011, Casilla has struggled to even reach 500 mark (currently at 475 OPS). In fact, his .192 average against right-handers is the fourth-lowest in the American League and the lowest among those with the platoon advantage. Once again, although it may be easy to simplify his performance to regression, Casilla’s offensive downturn has more to do with his mechanics and timing. The first clip is a swing from June 2011 that exemplifies his approach from May through July of 2011. Watch his lower half and witness a fluid and unison leg lift, a front toe tap that comes after the pitcher releases the ball and a noticeably violent lower-half weight transfer: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_May2011.gif Casilla implemented these mechanics from May onward of last season and experienced terrific results. This gives his swing pop, instead of the slap-hitting Casilla we became accustom to seeing over the majority of his career. Compare that swing to his pre-May 2011 approach: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_April2011v3.gif Notice that his stride is completed prior to the pitcher’s release of the ball (in the first version, he started his stride mid-pitch), leaving him flat-footed and simply shifting his weight from back to front and using more of his upper body in his swing. Casilla’s current mechanics are almost identical to those he used before his hot streak in 2011. Note the foot plant well before the pitcher’s release and muted weight shift: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/Casilla_FV_2012.gif There is no clear reason as to why Casilla abandoned the method which proved the most fruitful for one that is quickly expediting his career out of professional baseball. Perhaps it is that his sporadic time between starts has thrown off his timing. Maybe it is something that the coaching staff has encouraged him to revert back to the old approach. Whatever the rationale behind it, it would seem to make more sense to attempt to revisit video of his swing from last year and attempt to resurrect his mechanics from that stretch of baseball. Click here to view the article