Parker Hageman

Download attachment: Pelf.jpg Mike Pelfrey, or “the Big Pelf’ as he is called, towers at six feet, seven inches tall. Because of his substantial stature, it is likely that when Pelfrey starts saying that he will be ready to pitch by April this year, there is nary a person around to tell him otherwise. Even the Minnesota Twins figure that Pelfrey, who had Tommy John surgery in May 2012, will be ready by the opener, less than a year after the procedure. “If the season started tomorrow, I would have worked up to be ready at this point,” Pelfrey told MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger. “Realistically, after 7 ½ months, I threw 90 pitches to hitters, so I could pitch [now]. They told me the other day, ‘No restrictions. You’re on the schedule with everybody else.’ That’s what I wanted.” He has reportedly thrown 40 mound sessions since the surgery and has zero setbacks thus far. There is no question that he is doing everything possible to be ready by April 1. An interesting comparison to Pelfrey’s development will be to monitor how the Chicago Cubs prepare for former Twin Scott Baker’s return from the same injury. When Baker was signed the past November, the Cubs raved about his progress. They were teeming with optimism that Baker would be a key component of the team’s success right away, mostly based on his rehabilitation. “There are no certainties with rehabs, but we spent quite a lot of time on the medical (evaluation) and (looking into) his rehab,” said Chicago team president Theo Epstein. “It was described by our medical staff as an ideal Tommy John’s rehab, so far. Knock on wood. Everything has gone perfectly so far. He’s really attacked it in an ideal manner.” Fast forward to yesterday and Chicago’s field staff communicated a different message. Manager Dale Sveum said that the team was planning on “babying” him through spring training and that Baker had an “above-average” chance of missing the start of the regular season. What does Scott Baker’s timeline have to do with Mike Pelfrey? Baker had his Tommy John surgery almost two week prior to Pelfrey. Like Pelfrey, Baker’s rehab was thought to be going exceptionally well. He was throwing off of flat ground by August 8 and was throwing from more than 120 feet in September. In November, following his signing, the Cubs officials expressed adulation of his progress. During the time Baker began throwing again last August, Pelfrey was in Wichita where he played college ball. There, he helped coach an 18-year-old local team who was heading to a national tournament. Pelfrey took the opportunity to tell reporters that the medical staff and Mets’ organization had advised him to shoot for a May 2012 return based on the 12-month timeline post-surgery, but his own personal goal would be to be ready by opening day. By the middle of August last year, reports emerged that Pelfrey would be throwing on flat ground “soon.” Already he was few weeks behind Baker’s timeline but it appeared to be slipping further off target. When the Twins signed him in December, Pelfrey told reporters that he was confident that he would be 100% by opening day. "I'm on track for Jan. 15. So everything is going well," Pelfrey told ESPN.com’s Adam Rubin. "Tim Hudson came back in seven months (from Tommy John surgery)…I'll definitely be ready when spring training rolls around." True, Hudson came back quickly, but his actual recovery time was a bit longer than what Pelfrey relayed to the press. While he did return to pitch in the minors for a brief spell 10 months after his 2008 Tommy John surgery day, it wasn’t until 12 months after his surgery date that Hudson was throwing in the majors again – and even that was September work with the off-season ahead of him to rest. Essentially, Hudson jumped into the marathon near the end of the finish line whereas Pelfrey is expecting to run up to the starting line of the race and toss 180-plus innings. Locally, fans will remember Joe Nathan’s slow return to form in 2011. Nathan received the gift of a new UCL in March 2010 and busted his butt to get back on the hill by the start of the 2011 season. Nathan said all the right things, just like Pelfrey: I don’t want to be babied, I feel great, etc. After a clean spring training, Nathan was brought to Minnesota in what turned out to be a premature decision. It took the Twins nearly two months of the season, three home runs, two blown saves and a 7.63 ERA, to realize that Nathan was not ready. He was sent to Rochester to break up some scar tissue and came back effective for the second-half of the season. This week, Baker reportedly threw 40 pitches at 70 percent effort in response to the Cubs’ babying program. Meanwhile, early dispatches from Fort Myers suggest the new Twin one-upped the former Twin and has overtaken him in the race for the return. In his first bullpen session of the year, Pelfrey threw 50 pitches. There are plenty of reasons why Pelfrey may actually comeback quicker than expected. His size suggests that he can take pressure off his arm. His relatively low injury history may mean he is less injury prone in general. He may have X-Men DNA and heal freakishly fast like Adrian Peterson. This is to say, every individual repairs themselves differently and at different intervals. Still, research tells us that the time to return to form from Tommy John surgery is 12-to-18 months. Hard work and great genes may help Pelfrey target May – closer to the one-year anniversary of his new elbow – but anything earlier than that could be risking a setback (like Joe Nathan). The Twins may be supportive to the public of Pelfrey’s return but, at the same time, gathering insurance quietly such as signing left-hander Rafael Perez, someone assistant GM Rob Antony believes can be stretched out into a starter, to a minor league contract. Perez -- along with Rich Harden and in-house candidates like Liam Hendriks, Cole DeVries and Sam Deduno -- may be the safety net the front office is preparing in the event Pelfrey is not ready by April. At his age and his relatively low injury-risk in general, Mike Pelfrey is almost certain to rebound. Never say never but, if history has any indication, the likelihood of him pitching effectively in April appears low. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: jonathan-sanchez-royals-e1342536105140.jpg So the Kansas City Royals made one of the most lopsided trades when the acquired Jonathan Sanchez for Melky Cabrera since the natives swapped Manhattan Island to the Dutch for about 25 bucks. After a rebound season in KC, Cabrera is fully rejuvenated in the Bay Area, hitting .353/.391/.514 with 8 home runs for the Giants. Meanwhile, in 12 starts, Sanchez completely soiled the bed so badly that the Royals were recently forced to designate him for assignment. There was plenty of reason for the Royals to take a chance on the 29-year-old left-hander. According to his expected fielding independent figures, his 4.10 mark from 2008 to 2011 tied him with rotation-mate Matt Cain and put him ahead of such higher priced free agents as Edwin Jackson. So for the nominal sum of $5.6 million, the Royals received a veteran starter for Cabrera who, like Sanchez, was also in his final year of arbitration. On paper it made all the sense in the world. Of course, Sanchez’s glaring weakness, command, reared its ugly head once he moved to the American League. Considering his walk rate of 12.2% was the highest among those with a minimum of 500 innings pitched from 2008 to 2011, this should not come as a complete surprise. While his control waned in 2011 with San Francisco, the wheels fell completely off in 2012. Last year, Sanchez threw fewer pitches in the strike zone (45%) but was able to get opponents to chase after stuff off the plate (27%) and miss on those pitches at a decent rate (59%). This year, however, he threw the same amount of pitches in the zone (45%) but was unable to entice any takers on the out of zone ones (21% - the lowest among qualified starters in 2012) and those who did, hit the ball a high amount (69%). Ergo, Sanchez’s swinging strike rate declined from the above average 10% to the below average 7% in 2012. Frustrated with his tendency to hand out free passes carte blanche, the Royals made the decision to waive him. This gives teams the option to claim him then either work out a deal with Kansas City for a potential trade or assume the remainder of his $5.6 million prorated the rest of the year. Of course, if everyone passes – and because of the results of his last four starts (17 IP, 27 hits, 23 earned runs and a 11/16 K/BB ratio), it is entirely possible – anyone could pick him up for an audition at the league minimum. If that scenario plays out, should the Twins consider grabbing the left-hander? The Twins have done great work turning around their own control-deficient lefty in Francisco Liriano. Like Sanchez, Liriano struggled against his mechanics which led to a high walk rate as well (10% from 2008 to 2011). This current season was one of Liriano’s worst but, in season, the team saw him re-establish his control and post a 67-to-25 strikeouts-to-walks ratio in 57.1 innings. The stage is set for the organization to trade Liriano. Despite his stellar performance as of late, his impending free agency and high cost of retaining him (over $12 million for 2013), the heightened interest in him by other teams only stands to benefit the Twins and the front office is bound to pounce on that. Still, Liriano’s departure would leave Minnesota with yet another hole to fill within the rotation – now and in the future. That’s where Sanchez would come in. If he’s available for the minimum – similar to the way the Padres nabbed Jason Marquis after the Twins kicked him to the curb – the Twins may have the opportunity to tinker with Sanchez for a handful of starts and see if they can redirect him back to his form he showed with the Giants. After all, from 2008 to 2011 Sanchez had one of the best swing-and-miss rates among left-handers (10.4%) leading to the second-best strikeout rate among southpaws (24%). And, at 29, he’s still in what should be the prime of his career. If his decline is not injury-related, he could be resurrected with the proper instruction. Sanchez’s mechanics, as mentioned above, have been a bit chaotic at times. Occasionally he’ll wrap his leg during his wind-up and other times he’ll fail to pick up his target before throwing. These are certainly imperfections that teams would probably like to correct. However, Sanchez does not seem to be receptive to the suggestions. When pressed by the Royals’ media on the possible of adjusting his mechanics, Sanchez balked. “I don’t want to change anything,” he told reporters at the end of June, “If I try to change things, I’ll end up a real mess. I just have to trust that it will work out.” That’s not the talk of someone entirely open to doing everything possible to turn things around. Then again, being released might be just that type of wake up call to make a pitcher amiable to making adjustments. If the Twins grab him, he may wind up being the stubborn type who is not willing to listen or try new methods, even if that means a one-way ticket out of baseball. The Twins have 10 days to contemplate and examine whether or not Sanchez is repairable (perhaps less if they want to grab him on waivers and work out a trade). Based on his past track record, there is certainly a reason to spend the extra time on this decision. If he proves teachable and makes progress, consider bringing him back for one of the vacancies for 2013. If not, send him packing. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: BullpenCar.jpg If you were going to create a list of the Twins' offseason needs, you would likely write in big, bold letters STARTING PITCHING and underline it twice and put some exclamation points next to it for safe measure. Clearly this area of the team put the Twins in significant default night after night. Shackled to the American League's worst earned run average (5.40), the focal point of the front office will be to beg,borrow and steal anything they can that can help deflate that unsightly statistic and give the team an opportunity to win games in 2013. For the most part, this means throwing whatever free cash at a consistent starter or two and potentially trading away a key member of the team in order to acquire more. While the starting pitching problem was so big it could be seen from space, perhaps somewhat surprising is what the Twins viewed as their second biggest need is. During an interview with TwinsDaily.com's John Bonnes, Twins general manager Terry Ryan told the incredulous Bonnes that finding more relief pitching was next in line. This is interesting for several reasons. Whereas the starting rotation was obviously downright horrendous, the Twins bullpen actually fared well. A pessimist might say that the relief staff's success may be due to the fact that by the time Ron Gardenhire dipped into his 'pen, the opposing team was too tuckered out from all the home run-hitting and base-circling to put forth any real effort. An optimist, on the other hand, would point out that guys like Glen Perkins, Jared Burton and Brian Duensing formed a solid core of late innings options. And,given that those three members will be back in 2013, there would seem to be fewer vital roles to fill in the bullpen which helps redirect the resources back to the starting pitching. Here's another thing: The cost of relief pitching could get scary expensive. Early this week, the Dodgers made a somewhat surprising move when they extended right-handed reliever Brandon League with a three-year, $22.5 million deal, giving him short of $8 million per year. The hard-throwing 31-year-old comes equipped with the “proven closer”label which may help explain some of the need to pay out that much, but his walk rate has fluctuated that it may be hard to sit still with him on the mound in a close game. While that may seem like a steep price, there may be some logic behind why League received $7.5 million per year. In a candid interview,Cleveland Indians team president and former general manager Mark Sharpiro told Fox Sport Ohio's Pat McManamon that, based on growing revenue streams, the cost of purchasing one “win” on the free agent market has increased from $8 million just a few years ago to $9 million this year. Per the interview: So,applying this logic to League's contract, we find that over the last three seasons he has accumulated 2.5 wins above replacement which averages out to 0.8 wins above replacement per year. If a team were to purchase that on an open market, that would cost $7.2 million – just shy of the average annual value of League's actual contract of$7.5 million. Provided League performs at or better than his last three seasons, the contract may actually wind up right on the money and not nearly as insane as the initial reactions. Then again, if League under-performs or gets injured, the contract could blow up in their face. Needless to say, most teams have to feel confident in their projections in order to dish out $9 million per win on the free agent market. That,or have Scrooge McDuck-type of money. Stupidly rich teams like the Dodgers have the luxury of committing that volume of money to a set-up man/closer and walking away financially unscathed if something goes wrong. Not every team in baseball will be looking to pay the going rate of a relief pitcher. The Twins will need to be smart with their investments and, given their track record of eschewing long-term contracts to free agents and avoiding marquee ones, there are no indications that they would chase any free agent down that rabbit hole. Outside of the top relief arms who can anticipate multi-year contracts, there are several players who may be acquired for fewer than three years.There is Kyle Farnsworth who pitched well as Tampa Bay's closer but elbow soreness truncated his 2012 season. Likewise, Jason Frasor also battled an elbow injury but struck out 53 in 43.2 innings thanks to a dirty slider. Mark Lowe, a member of the Rangers and Mariners bullpen, can bring some heat and miss bats but a non-arm related injury (intercoastal) sidetracked this past season. Those are just three of the bargain rate right-handed arms that could be available for the Twins. Heck, if bridges aren't burnt, Pat Neshek, who threw frisbee after frisbee in Oakland, seems to have rediscovered his command and would be a solid option for a season. These kind of arms may give you the same wins above replacement value but will not likely require the $9 million pay out. While the more statistically inclined organizations like the Indians may run numbers on everyone until their word processors explode, the Twins have proven quite adept at nabbing arms who require a bit more scouting acumen over the stats. Well, that, and the sheer numbers game. The Twins philosophy when it comes to relief pitching appears to stem from Branch Rickey's farm system mantra: From quantity comes quality. Last year the Twins signed a bushel of low cost minor league relief arms including Jared Burton, Jason Bulger, Luis Perdomo, Casey Fein and Joel Zumaya. Of the five, Burton emerged as a legitimate hurler while Fein threw well in the final two months of the season. Expect Terry Ryan and the Twins to be very active in the reliever market,just don't anticipate them to pay the going rate. After all, there are bigger fish to fry. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Ryan.jpg With the fourth overall pick waiting for them on Thursday night, the Minnesota Twins are poised to choose from one of several high profile picks. Rich with talent in the lower levels of the farm system, the organization has another chance at the fourth overall pick to backfill the minors with another highly-skilled player and continue to construct a solid future. Among the experts’ predictions for what could be available for the Twins at number four pick include pitchers Mark Appel, Jonathan Gray and Kohl Stewart as well as infielder/outfielder Kris Bryant. Of course, simply having a high pick does not ensure can’t miss talent. Equipped with a scouting background which dates back to 1980 with the New York Mets, Twins general manager Terry Ryan knows this time of year well. As a general manager, he is aware of the effects missed opportunities in the draft can have on team-building. After all, the mid-1990s picks provided very little return in later years, one reason for the team’s late decade decline. Not long ago, Ryan took the time to answer a few of our questions regarding the scouting process and his role in the identification of the upcoming fourth overall pick in the amateur draft. Terry Ryan on understanding the limitations of the capacity of the general manager in scouting draft pick: “Over the years I’ve realized that the less you do that, the more dangerous you are. If you are involved in that daily, you can slot guys very easily and put ‘em where they belong. If you just dabble in that thing …it’s not a good thing. I learned that when I became one of those special assignment guys. You shouldn’t get too wrapped up in the good days/bad days but you certainly don’t have a good flavor for what’s nationwide. We got plenty of people out there and if they want me to see a guy I probably will. But I don’t see it as a necessity as a General Manager to see them.” Ryan on letting his scouting staff do their jobs: “If I go see a guy and we got seven guys that are all over this guy and I go in and I don’t like him, what am I going to do? Overrule seven other guys? I don’t see it as a necessity to see the guys but if they want me to, I will.” Ryan on the difficulty of projecting Byron Buxton, who played a low-level of competition in Georgia: “Not at all. Especially a guy like [buxton] because there is no doubt he can throw – in fact, I saw him pitch, which wasn’t exactly what I had in mind – but you know he can run and you know he has range, ‘cause he’ll show you that when he goes to get a ball. The other things when you see a guy in a situation like Buxton in southern rural Georgia, I was fortunate enough to see him play against a good ballclub from Atlanta and that was a plus. Regardless of the competition, we’re still looking at skills and tools and body and competitiveness and attention and urgency. All that stuff.” Ryan on cross-checkers and seeing guys: “Now days players get seen so much more than we use to be able to back in the 1980’s. In Chicago, for instance, or Minnesota you might see a high school guy one game you got to make a decision. If you are a cross-checker – I’m not talking about an area guy – if you are a cross-checker and you get one look at a guy – and you’re probably fortunate – you make a decision, you put a number on him and then you move on to the next guy. That’s what cross-checkers are paid to do and it is a difficult job but it can be done.” Click here to view the article

In spring training last year, New York Mets manager Terry Collins said that second base has become “an enormous offensive position. Some of the guys that have been playing there have been putting up huge numbers at second. It’s become an offensive position, so to me that’s a big piece of the puzzle.” [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] In the American League, this has become exceedingly true. Players like Dustin Pedroia, Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano have packed a wallop for their respective teams. The Twins meanwhile have fielded a group of players last year at second who posted a 610 OPS, well below the league’s average of 721. Clearly, the Twins are in need of some offensive contribution from the evolving position. Perhaps the team has recognized the way the trend is leaning as a reason why they moved prospect Eddie Rosario and his potent bat into the keystone position. But, while that may play out well in the long run, here in the present, the Twins need some stick. Recently, Twins Daily’s Nick Nelson continued his Position Analysis series by tackling the team’s second base spot, naming Alexi Casilla as the likely starter. In short, Nelson pointing out that Casilla has both the talent but at the same time the lack of consistency to hold down the job. Wrote Nelson: On both accounts, Nelson is spot on. Casilla’s track record in the minor leagues is fairly impressive. In a little under 2,000 plate appearances, the switch-hitting middle infielder posted a very good .296/.370/.371 batting line. While in the farm system, he demonstrated a strong strike zone recognition (walking in nine percent of his plate appearances) and an equally outstanding contact rate (striking out just 11 percent of his plate appearances). He lacked the power to be fawned over by prospect farmers but he contributed with his speed when possible, swiping 164 bags at a 75% success clip. On the other hand, when at the major league level, Casilla has shown just flashes of that talent – if only in small and disappointing doses. Early on, his position was secured in Ron Gardenhire’s doghouse as Casilla failed to show the stability in the field that has become so instilled as “the Twins way.” Handed the second base job in 2009, he went out and promptly hit .202/.280/.259 and pushed the team into starting Matt Tolbert and Nick Punto over him. Still, for all his faults, the Twins have hung on to him only to witness small bursts of his promising talent. For instance, in 2010, limited to just 69 games, he hit .276/.331/.395 and avoided the chopping block for one more season. When he was off to a horrendous start in 2011, hitting .167/.227/.200 through the first twenty games, it was widely believed that he had probably earned his way out of the organization and needed a change of scenery. Instead, Casilla made some mechanical adjustments and rebounded to the tune of .281/.344/.408 over his next 74 games before a hamstring injury knocked him out for the year. Download attachment: alexi-casilla-twins.jpg Considering the rollercoaster that has Casilla’s career, it’s hard to peg him down for 2012. While the rest of the Twins Daily community isn’t sold on his skill I (for some reason) remain optimistic that we are going to see a much improved Casilla this coming year. While never being one to rely on off-season league and spring training stats for any indication of future performance, Casilla has been impressive in both nevertheless. In his Dominican League stint, he produced a .336 batting average – which was the second-highest in the league – in addition to a .419 on-base percentage. Yes, the counterargument to this is that the island league is littered with wash-out major leaguers and clinging-to-life minor leaguers but it is reassuring that Casilla has managed to carry the adjustments he made in 2011 into the off-season. Likewise, Casilla’s current .438 spring average in the Grapefruit League in 17 plate appearances is a continuation of his winter league performance. And, yes, much like the winter league stats, the numbers posted in Florida mean little – but it is leaps and bounds better than his two prior spring performances in which in hit .200 (10-for-50) in 2011 and .135 (7-for-53) in 2010. Admittedly, in terms of optimism, that’s not a strong foundation to build a projection on. I’d rather be able to compare a high line drive rate and a suppressed batting average on balls in play from the previous season, similar to Danny Valencia’s 2011, in an effort to push positivity – something more concrete and substantial than basing it on that he has done well when it has not mattered. However, if we are looking for a sign or indication that Casilla is ready to marry his potential to his actual performance, this is a step in the right direction. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: aaron-hick.jpg As Seth Stohs mentioned yesterday, while the rest of us at Twins Daily were all stark raving mad about Kyle Gibson’s performance in the Arizona Fall League, another Twins prospect was making noise even further south. Outfielder Aaron Hicks, who is playing winthttp://apps.startribune.com/blogs/fckeditor/editor/images/spacer.gifer ball in Venezuela, is off to a fast start this offseason, matching the expectation he set from his in-season performance at New Britain. Of course, not long ago, Hicks was in danger of falling off the “top prospect” radar although. Heading into the 2011 season, Baseball America dropped him from 19TH to 45TH despite a terrific first full season at the low-A level in Beloit. Then, as if Baseball America’s rankings had influence, Hicks lost some power and over 30 points in the batting average at Ft Myers the following year. The criticism on Hicks’s approach is that he could be too passive at times. Hicks boasts a high strikeout rate and a significant portion of those (39%) in 2011 were of the caught-looking variety, an indication that he was not aggressive enough with two strikes on him. Of course, the other side of the coin is that it has led to a 14% career minor league walk rate – a solid pillar supporting his .379 on-base percentage. While walks are en vogue with OBP-ers, there are those in the system who would like to see him use his six-foot-two athletic frame to transfer some power into the ball. His 2010 season at Beloit had him smacking eight home runs but that total dwindled down to five after his foray with the Miracle in Fort Myers. Part of the reason for the drop off simply had to do with the offensive difficulty of the Florida State League. As the Star Tribune’s Phil Miller explained this year, hitting is dern tough way down south: When he transitioned from high-A ball in the Florida State League to an even more polished level of competition of the double-A Eastern League, rather than being buried by the tougher pitching Hicks elevated his game. His matriculation to double-A ball could have also been a hindrance - given the significant leap in talent - but Hicks did not allow it. He hit a healthy .286/.384/.460 with 13 home runs. Where did this production come from? Was it simply a course correction after leaving the Florida State League or did Hicks make adjustments elsewhere? Being a switch-hitter, Hicks has had two sides of the plate in which to polish his mechanics and both have undergone some interesting transformations since 2011. Hicks from the right: Download attachment: hicks-swing-1.jpg While the angles and the graininess of the 2012 minor league camera shot do not provide the highest quality to judge these two stances on, there are some things that you can derive without having the same shot side-by-side. The first is where his hands are set pre-swing. While he has a similar hold, in these two pictures you can see that his elbows/hands are lower during his time with the Miracle (left) then they were with the Rock Cats (right). This may sound like a minute detail but elevated hands, in theory, create more leverage by engaging the top hand. For a line drive/ground ball hitter, this equates to harder hit balls, perhaps as easily identifiable as his spike in isolated power (from .124 in 2011 to .173 in 2012) and a big jump in batting average on balls in play (from .308 to .346). The second difference between 2011 Hicks and 2012 Hicks is the lowered stance with the deeper knee bend. This compacted stance figures to generate more power from his hips and lower half. In addition to the higher hand set this, according to minorleaguecentral.com, has lead to a higher fly ball rate from the right-side (from 29% in 2011 to 39% in 2012) and more home runs (from 3 to 7). Hicks from the left: Download attachment: hicks-swing-2.jpg The same disclaimer from above applies to this one as well: the angle and the graininess distort some perception and do not provide a crystal clear view to compare fully. As opposed to the shots above, these two images are of Hicks striding from the left-hand side. The first thing that stands out is where his hands are had at the loaded position. In the (left), his hands are lower and, judging by the angle, closer to his body. In the 2012 version (right), his hands are slightly higher and away from his body. This should give him a quicker path to the ball. Interestingly, when Hicks was first drafted, he had a severely long swing from the left side (which you can see in this pre-draft swing .gif here). His hands were significantly higher which led to an elongated swing. So these modifications are simply the evolution in shortening that swing. Also, similar to the aforementioned right-hand side, he is also compacted more which gives leaves him able to generate power from the lower-half better. The alterations made have led to a higher line drive rate (from 13% to 19%) and more power (from 2 home runs to 6) from this side of the plate. **** This should be viewed as very positive development for the 23 year old prospect. Along with his above average defense – including his exceptional arm in the outfield – Hicks has reaffirmed the belief that he is an elite prospect after putting up terrific numbers in double-A. With some seasoning in Rochester schedule for this year, if this progress continues, Hicks could quickly make his way into the Twins outfield. Click here to view the article

You only have two choices: will he be better or worse in 2013?Download attachment: Dozier.jpg 2012 Recap There are two things you won’t find in Minnesota: A liquor store that will sell you booze on Sundays and consistency at the shortstop position. The Minnesota Twins were hoping that the latter problem would be solved by Brian Dozier. Dozier, a shortstop drafted by the organization (another rarity), was given the opportunity a month into the season to claim the role as his own. Alas, he did not. Dozier’s stock shot up in the spring when the 26-year-old earned the praise of coaches and media members based on his performance in Florida. Sent to Rochester to begin the year, overall suckitude by the affiliate’s parent team incited his May call up. In his first 10 games, he provided false hope by hitting .286/.318/.476 with two home runs. Once scouting reports spread his numbers dropped faster than fan’s interest in the team. He got extremely pull-happy. His plate discipline disappeared. His frustrations at the plate seemed to lead to defensive miscues. Demoted in August, Dozier returned to Rochester and continued where he left off with the Twins. Why He’ll Be Worse In 2013 After a fast start, opponents quickly exploited his holes in his swing and his numbers dropped. His plate discipline swiftly eroded as team’s started to attack the outer-half of the zone and he managed to walk in under 5% of his plate appearances. To make matters worse, after being sent down to Rochester in August to work on this, he walked just twice in his final 76 PAs (2%). It was like his soul was crushed. While his minor league track record is decent enough, it is possible that teams have figured out his number and will play him like a fiddle (see: Valencia, Danny) until the team is forced to admit he is not capable of being an everyday player. Why He’ll Be Better In 2013 As mentioned above, he’s put up decent enough numbers in the minors and, in most cases, hiccups are to be expected as a player ascends to the next level. The struggles in 2012 could simply be part of a player’s natural learning curve. Plus, he’s reunited with his former minor league hitting coach Tom Brunansky, who has been credited with improving his approach while with New Britain. Together the pair may be able to help make the necessary adjustments to adapt to the competition. What will it be? A continuation of his 2012 season or will the 27-year-old finally emerge as a starter in this lineup? Click on this link to see our official thread AND take the survey. Then leave us a comment saying why. Read from our past For Better Or Worse series: Joe Mauer. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: uspw_6513098 (1).jpg When the Minnesota Twins traded Ben Revere to the Philadelphia Phillies, they acquired one pitcher who can help the team immediately, Vance Worley, and another who is expected to contribute in the future in Trevor May. Because Worley is the known commodity who will be a member the starting rotation right away, let’s focus on him first and breakdown May next week. Affectionately known as “Vanimal” to the Phillie fan base, the 25-year-old Worley wound up being the fifth starter on a team whose rotation featured a stable of prized horses including Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee and Roy Halladay. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]On an average team, he’s likely a three or four-type starting. In the depleted staff in Minnesota however, until some additional moves are made this offseason, he could very well could be the second-best starter on the team. On the surface, Worley is very much a pitcher who fits the Twins’ mold: He throws strikes, he works ahead in the count and he pitches to contact. In fact, his 5.5% swinging strike rate last year was the third-lowest rate among all starters with a minimum of 130 innings pitched. That total fits in well with the Nick Blackburns of the world. Of course, the biggest difference was that Worley was still able to strike people out even if he couldn’t get them to swing-and-miss. His 18% strikeout rate last year would have finished ahead of everyone in the Twins rotation save for Francisco Liriano. So, if he’s not getting hitters to miss, how did he accumulate so many strikeouts? Jedi mind trick? In 2012 Worley’s strikeouts were largely a product of hitters failing to pull the trigger. As mentioned before, his swinging strike rate was well-below the major league average therefore he relied on painting corners and hitting his location. This past year, according to Baseball-Reference.com 57% of Worley’s strikeouts were of the looking variety. That mark was the highest among all qualified pitchers and surpassed the baseball average of 24%. In fact, no other qualified pitcher had more than half of their strikeouts looking. Interestingly enough, a higher amount of his strikeouts came against opposite-handed hitters rather than same-sided ones. Over his career, in the exact same number of plate appearances against both sides (597), Worley out-whiffed lefties (134) over righties (103). These reverse splits are related to the fact that he has caught more hitters looking versus getting them to swing and miss. Worley’s main weapon of choice against lefties is his sinking two-seam fastball. When he finds himself in a two-strike count, he will dial up this pitch more often than any other (40% of the time with two-strikes). This downward and glove-side run of this pitch combined with his excellent placement has allowed him to aim it at the hitter’s belt and watch it fade back over the plate, like this: http://apps.startribune.com/blogs/user_images/theeight_1354861486_Worley2.gif The location and movement of this sinking two-seamer freezes opponents in their tracks. According to his profile at BrooksBaseball.net, with two-strikes, Worley has gotten strike three looking on this pitch 20% of the time he throws it. Perhaps because of his tendency to ride a pitch on their hands or throw soft stuff away, left-handed hitters had a difficult time pulling Worley. Possibly due to necessity of avoiding Citizens Bank Park’s inviting right field stands, he was able to keep hitters from going that direction often -- instead redirecting them back up the middle or to the opposite field. Unfortunately, Worley’s ability to do the same against right-handed opponents was non-existent as he was decisively average in his directional splits. The idea that a pitcher can control where a hitter hits the ball is debatable however if he is able to repeat this skill, the ability to keep hitters to the big park of the field, specifically at Target Field, so be beneficial**. **Then again, the Twins just traded away two very solid defensive center fielders and could employ a “Balls-To-The-Walls” defensive alignment in the outfield. Another interesting component of his game is the way that he has kept the ball in the park despite pitching in a very hitter-friendly ballpark. In his short career, Worley has allowed just 0.75 home runs per nine innings while the rest of the league has been closer to 1.00 HR/9. What makes this feat even more impressive is that Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park, known for its home runs and quick-taze security guards, has been a home run haven. Left-handed hitters, in particularly, have thrived there. According to StatCorner.com, the CBP has a Home Run Park Factor of 126, well above the neutral of 100. For comparison, Target Field vastly decreases the amount of home runs by left-handed opponents, carrying a 76 Home Run Park Factor. In theory, the transition to the home run-suppressing Target Field should help keep his home run rate down while switching to a league with an added offensive player in the lineup. So all of this seems positive. Yes, there will be some statistical inflation when he switches from a league in which he gets to face a pitcher holding a rolled up newspaper every ninth man up but his methodology and new environment should be able adapt quickly. The concern, however, is the health of his elbow. This past August, Worley would be shut down due to “loose bodies” in his throwing elbow and have season-ending surgery. While these procedures are described lightly and often referred to as “clean up” by teams, they can be symptoms of more ominous issues inside the elbow. The aforementioned Blackburn, who once had similar movement on his sinker, required this procedure in order to clean out some “loose particles” in his elbow in October 2010. Since then, Blackburn has been on-and-off the DL, had more surgery and has pitched with almost zero effectiveness. Like Blackburn did, Worley relies on touch and finesse which is provided by a healthy elbow. Now, that is only a disclaimer. Focus more on the fact that Worley has strong ground ball skills, ability to get strikeouts without needing to getting hitters to miss and is still young enough to be a part of the rotation for several years. In all, I say Twins landed themselves a decent middle-of-the-rotation arm. Click here to view the article

Byron Buxton, says ESPN.com’s Keith Law, is a prospect with more tools than Home Depot. OK, now that the requisite pun is out of the way, let’s delve into the nitty-gritty. After MLB.com anointed Buxton the number one prospect in all the land, Law’s Top 100 list concurred. As a 19-year-old, the center fielder smacked pitching around in the Midwest and Florida State Leagues to the tune of .334/.424/.520 with 12 home runs and 109 runs scored. An on-base menace, Buxton scampered around the bases with blinding speed and, defensively, he covered more real estate than is in the Alaskan wilderness. But it is perhaps the most difficult aspect of the game -- hitting -- that separates the elite prospects from the flamed-out Brandon Woods of the world. The game is organic and climbing the ladder involves making changes in approach and mechanics to ensure the stud high school/college player not only reaches but succeeds at the highest level of professional baseball. When it comes to Buxton, those changes are in process. As Law writes about Buxton: The bold section of his analysis is what jumped out at me. At midseason, I reviewed Buxton’s mechanics from the available video at the time, compared the changes made from his high school showcase days and concluded that he and the Twins had made some significant changes to his swing. To summarize, Buxton had eliminated his open stance and leg kick in favor of an in-line approach with a toe-touch stride. In theory this provides improved timing and greater contact ability with less body movement -- the “balanced through contact” part that Law referenced. http://oi41.tinypic.com/2rh39lu.jpg What was prominent but not mentioned was the fact that his back leg left the ground at contact. At that time, I did not see this as a flaw, per se. After all, there are some hitters who do quite well for themselves with this in their swing. Albert Pujols’ swing pulls his back foot off the ground and forward after contact. More pronounced, however, is the Washington Nationals’ Bryce Harper who displays this very trait in his swing perhaps more than anybody. http://gamereax.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/harperderbyswing.gif As you see at the point of contact, Harper’s back foot has left the ground by an inch or two. Though somewhat unorthodox, in an article published by Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post last year, biomechanics expect Glenn Fleisig explained why this move is beneficial for Harper: Download attachment: BryceHarper_2102_HomeRun_001.jpg So, biomechanically speaking, the move in and of itself does not reduce power. The main difference between Harper and Buxton’s leg lifts was the weight transfer. In Harper’s case, you see that his front side has absorbed essentially all his weight. Buxton, on the other hand, lacks the max effort transfer and has a more balanced weight distribution making the leg lift something that could diminish his power. What’s more is that from the front view, it is noticeable that Buxton’s back leg slides out a bit, too. Over the course of last season, video of Buxton in Cedar Rapids and then Fort Myers showed the game’s top prospect demonstrating this back-leg lift in his swing, but there was evidence of it beginning to tone down in the Florida State League. It was not until clips of his performance in the Arizona Fall League that Buxton’s swing seemed different than that of his Midwest League. http://imageshack.com/a/img809/1010/4gl.gif http://imageshack.com/a/img829/952/s6u.gif From the Twins’ perspective, you can see why they would want to try to streamline Buxton’s mechanics. Any reduction of unnecessary movement will streamline the swing and provide Buxton -- who is graced with countless tools -- the opportunity to succeed at the major league level for a long time. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7922433.jpg I do not believe it is too hyperbolic to say that Phil Hughes is the greatest pitcher alive. That may be a bit extreme but it has been so long since the Minnesota Twins have been able to pencil a strong candidate into the rotation that you forget what a good pitcher smells like. (Answer: Good pitchers smell like Cy Young Awards -- a combination of polished chrome, rich mahogany and saddlewood). OK, so a Cy Young this year is a stretch considering he has to rely on a stagnant Twins offense to score runs in order to continue to accumulate wins that the voters love so dearly, and the Yankees have a pitcher named Masahiro Tanaka who is doing unforgivable things to other teams, but at least for the first-half of the 2014 season Hughes has been pitching and putting his name in the conversation. So far, he is in the top 25 of pitchers in notable categories including WHIP (13th), K/BB ratio (2nd) and walks per nine innings (1st). And, if for some reason MLB decided to throw out the stats from the first month of the season, Hughes’ ERA of 2.17 would be the fifth-best in baseball. When the Twins signed Hughes this offseason, there was the belief he would improve his numbers simply by not having to pitch at Yankee Stadium. In reality, his numbers have been improved not just because of the bigger ballpark but because of an overhaul in his approach. Reports from Florida was that with the help of Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson Hughes was going to rekindle his relationship with his curveball that he roundly ignored in 2013. During spring training, he paid extra attention to improving the pitch, attempting to keep it from being spotted coming out of his hand. In short, this season he was going to ride back into Strikeout Town on a horse named Uncle Charlie with guns a-blazing (bang, bang). That, however, has not played out that way. Hughes is having a marvelous season but it has little to do with his curveball being a knee-breaking offering. He has incorporated the curveball slightly more than last year but it is not used in the same capacity. Last season, as Hughes told me this past March, he mainly used his curve in first-pitch situation as a get-me-over pitch. This season not only does he rarely spin it to start a count but because of the significant difference in velocity, he is using it more as a substitute for his changeup (which, along with his slider, has been shelved). What makes Hughes’ curveball valuable is that it has sped up his already impressive fastball. With a near 17-mph velocity difference between it and his fastball, turning on the heater has proven difficult for hitters this year. According to ESPN/trumedia, after pulling the ball 32% of the time from 2009 to 2013 opponents have turned on it just 23% of the time (the lowest among qualified starters). So if it is not his curveball creating all the strikeouts, what is? That would be his cutter. The cutter, the slider’s cousin, has been used more frequently as of late across baseball. According to a recent Providence Journal, Boston Red Sox pitchers have turned to cutters as a way of confusing hitters. Their theory is that the shorter, quick break generates more swings at pitches out of the zone that the looping curve or the tilting slider. It looks like a fastball and has late break. It is because of this pitch that Hughes has been successful against left-handed hitters. From 2009 to 2013, lefties had posted a 861 OPS while mainly facing his curve and change as secondary pitches. With a transition to the cutter as his secondary pitch, this season he has kept left-handed at bay with a 527 OPS, the fifth best rate among qualified starters. What makes the cutter effective against left-handed batters is the ability to spot it on the outer-half, using it as a backdoor pitch on two-strike counts. Hughes has registered 42 strikeouts of left-handers this season, 21 of which have been looking. Of those 21, 18 were on his cutter. Below is an ESPN/trumedia heat map of the cutter’s location on those 18 caught-looking strikeouts which demonstrates Hughes’ ability to expand the strike zone on the outside. Download attachment: strike-zone (24).png In last night’s start, Hughes froze Red Sox outfielder Daniel Nava on this pitch: http://i.imgur.com/hUtvBWn.gif The cutter comes out of Hughes’ hand at a velocity much like his fastball (89 mph compared to 92 on the fastball), but rather than residing up in the zone like his fastball, he keeps the cutter down in the zone -- helping change a hitter’s eye level as well. With the last second tail and Hughes’ precision placement, lefties appear hopeless against the pitch. Beyond his arsenal, it is his overwhelming ability to attack the strike zone that has positioned him well. As noted above, Hughes’ walk rate is the best in baseball and he also leads starters with getting ahead in the count. On the first pitch, Hughes leads baseball with a 66% zone rate (average is just slightly higher than 50%) and he continues to push to two-strikes quickly. This puts hitters on the defensive and gives him a sizable advantage. Phil Hughes is having an outstanding rebound season but not because of the reasons people initially thought. The inclusion of his cutter combined with his world-conquering strike zone dominance has elevated Hughes’ into a top-of-the-rotation starter that was once predicted for him in New York. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: logo.jpg On this week's episode of The No Juice Podcast, Parker Hageman and Dan Anderson ventured to KSTP studios to talk to one of the Twin Cities' hardest-working media members, Darren Wolfson. On the night that Labron James announced his intentions of returning to Ohio, Wolfson provided his plugged-in insights on what that means to the Minnesota Timberwolves and Kevin Love. Wolfson also shares information on the impending trade deadline and what that means for the Minnesota Twins. Other topics with Parker and Dan include the All-Star Weekend, Home Run Derby Happy Hours, and TV awards. Listen below, on iTunes or Stitcher: THE NO JUICE PODCAST, EPISODE #13 - DARREN WOLFSON Click here to view the article

Download attachment: logo.jpg Parker Hageman and Dan Anderson got together to talk about the Twins' latest heart-wrenching road trip, the fiasco in the outfield, and who Jorge Polanco's career has started off like. They discussed soccer and World Cup trolling. Then they had the Idea to End All Ideas when they came up with a Kickstarter campaign. Listen -- below, on iTunes or Stitcher -- and enjoy. NO JUICE PODCAST - EPISODE #11 Click here to view the article

Download attachment: aerial 2.jpg Player development facilities have come a long way from the days of Branch Rickey and his infamous sliding pits. With numerous organizations moving into new or renovated complexes, the Minnesota Twins are trying to avoid being left behind. On Thursday, the Twins began construction on updating their spring campus. David Dorsey of the News Press highlights the progress of the Lee County Sports Complex: The addition of the minor league player academy is a solid investment for the team’s future. As other organizations either add on to their existing spring training facilities or built new ones altogether, Hammond Stadium and the Lee County Sports Complex were falling behind the times. For example, while Boston’s recently completed Jet Blue Stadium complex had seven complete fields the Lee County Sports Complex had just five. When Jet Blue opened the fields along with their state-of-the-art training facilities, it was deemed as a significant “competitive advantage” for the team’s player development system by Boston’s COO Sam Kennedy. Furthermore, with the game’s continued international growth, the new on-site dormitories should give foreign-born players an easier transition into the new culture and game rather than having to live away from the training area. The Pirates, who train up the gulf coast in Bradenton, completed a similar project at their famed training site, Pirate City. Renovated in 2008, Pittsburgh’s on-site dormitories have 75 player rooms and make it mandatory for all players in Minor League camp to live in one of the dorm rooms. Meanwhile Hammond Stadium, the home of both the Twins and Fort Myers Miracle, is also getting a much needed face lift. The Twins have also requested that the field’s dimensions be changed to match the geometry of Target Field – which means large power alleys and a few more feet added to the left-center field area. This should help the evaluation process and prepare the players better for the conditions experienced at the major league level rather than watching towering flies that would normally be caught drift over the outfield wall. Overall, the expansion focuses on the on-field product however there is plenty that will elevate the game day experience for the legions of fans who make the trip to southwest Florida. Beyond the outfield walls, the Twins plan to add a right field party deck (rendering below) as well as a boardwalk that circles the field, similar to the one that the Pirates constructed at their Bradenton, Florida facilities. Likewise, the metal bleachers will be converted to conventional seat-backs. In all, the stadium will increase capacity to 9,300, which is still several thousand less the Red Sox and the new Cubs’ spring training home. Download attachment: outfield group deck 1.jpg The current configuration of Hammond has a significant stair climb to the main concourse level. During much of spring training, this area has been highly congested because of the small walkways made even smaller with concession stands and a popular retail shop. The expansion plans, Dorsey writes, will eliminate the gift shop and open up a view of the field for those arriving up the flight of stairs. Additional restrooms will be installed and concession areas will be expanded to accommodate for the increasing spring crowds. While a substantial portion of the bill is being paid by Lee County, for the new improvements the Twins will have the Red Sox to thank. Based on a clause in their 2004 lease agreement, the talks of expanding the Lee County Sports Complex and Hammond Stadium began when the Boston Red Sox relocated from City of Palms Park to Jet Blue Stadium. As accordance to the agreement between Lee County and the Minnesota Twins, the club had the right to request and construct improvements that have been “approved or constructed by the County in any other spring training facility to which the County is an owner or lessor” as is the case with Jet Blue Stadium. The entire project should be completed by 2015. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: TommyJohn.jpg This week's "Gleeman and The Geek" episode featured a newly married Parker Hageman from Twins Daily filling in as co-host and topics included Miguel Sano needing Tommy John elbow surgery and what it means for his future, Johan Santana's sad comeback, Josmil Pinto's weight issues, technical difficulties, Bud Lights vs. Old Fashioneds, cop listeners, the history of Tommy John surgery, over/under 70.5 wins in 2014, Florida weddings, and being way too explicit. You can listen by clicking below, or download us from iTunes, Stitcher or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Ball.jpg Who IS This Guy? At six-foot-six and just 175 pounds, 18-year-old Trey Ball from New Castle High School in Indiana has an extremely projectable frame, one that experts agree will fill out nicely as he matures. Opinion, however, appears split between where he should play: pitcher or outfielder. Who Could He Be? The majors have few left-handed power arms whose fastballs average in the mid-90's. Tampa’s David Price, Texas’ Derek Holland and Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw are members of a rare breed who can dial up that kind of velocity from the port-side. Because of that, Ball’s immediate future may be as a pitcher. In 2012, during the Area Code games, Ball was averaging 92 with his fastball but peppered in a slow curve at 74. This year, at times, he was reaching upwards of 96. If he is able to maintain the arm speed and release spot with both pitches, the discrepancy could be downright criminal. Kershaw has struck out 67 batters in 64 innings this year thanks to the same variation between his fastball and huge hook. Landing a Kershaw-like arm would be a phenomenal get for the Twins. On the other hand, if things should go awry with his pitching development, Ball’s positional skills are highly thought of as well. Because of his big arm, his future in the field would most likely be as a right fielder. At the plate, Ball’s abilities and style have reminded MiLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo of Shawn Green. Green displayed 30+ home run power at the peak of his career, something that Ball may be capable of once he adds some muscle. It should be noted that Ball has been playing his senior year using a wood bat instead of a metal bat with which he could put up ridiculous video game-type numbers. His decision to challenge himself speaks well for his overall makeup. How Soon Could He Be Playing In Target Field? It’s never easy with pitchers. The Twins have had several of their high profile selections (Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers, etc.) require major surgery which sidetracked their path to the majors. The adage “there’s no such thing as a pitching prospect” applies. Still, Ball’s mechanics are relatively clean, his arm action is good and -- judging from the available game footage of him online -- his delivery looks fairly repeatable for a tall, lanky pitcher. One area that may take some polishing is his breaking ball. To avoid any injury to his arm in his formative years, Ball’s father would not allow him to throw a curve, rather focusing on a changeup – which is a plus pitch for him and one of the more difficult pitches to develop later on (just ask Vance Worley). This edict meant Ball only last year began throwing curves and reports are that while the movement is good, the consistency is not quite there. If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Messed Up Because… On the whole, drafting hard-throwing high school southpaws has not been a great return-on-investment for major league clubs. Back in 2007, the Hardball Times published a study that showed as a group, high school power-armed lefties had an extremely poor track record of making it past Double-A within six years of the draft. Between 1996 and 2000, just 25% of those drafted made it past Double-A. The theory is that talent evaluators focus too much on the hard-throwing arm and overlook some of the other faults of the player. Could selecting Ball result in the same disappointment as with a large percentage of high school lefties before him? If The Twins Draft This Guy, They Nailed It Because… OK, so hard-throwing high school lefties are a big risk. So what? They are also a big reward if you hit on one. Mid-90's chucking lefties are hard to come by. Ball’s skill set, too, presents a unique, built-in safety net in the event that he does flame out as a pitcher. Previous Twins Daily Draft Profiles: Monday, May 20 - Sean Manaea, SP Tuesday, May 21 - Austin Meadows, OF For MLB Draft Day Coverage, make sure you follow @TwinsDaily on Twitter! Click here to view the article

With a bullpen that is holier than the Pope, the Twins have been hosting an audition with many of their arms this spring hoping to fill some of the openings. Many of the early front-runners have likely exited the race early. Some, like Joel Zumaya, had the misfortunate of being bounced out due to injury. Others, like Terry Doyle and Jason Bulger, have just failed to perform. As a lot of the field continues to falter for one reason or another, Kyle Waldrop has emerged as a potential candidate to head north with the club. After coming up through the system working as a starter, Waldrop has made a quick ascension to the upper level since being converted to a reliever. Recently dispatched into short-term work, he has thrived by throwing an impressive sinker that has damaged infield turf all over the minor leagues. In 2010, his first season at the Triple-A level, 64 percent of opponents’ batted balls were of the ground-ball variety. This past year, he upped his ground ball rate to 66 percent at Rochester and, in his brief September call-up, he was inducing grounders at a 75 percent clip with the Twins. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK]So far this spring, Waldrop and ground-ball-riffic ways has made quite the impression on the coaching staff and teammates. According to MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger, following a cage session against the righty, Danny Valencia finished and told reporters that he has “late, heavy sink” which makes it tough to elevate the ball. Many ground ball pitchers seem to share this description from opponents, coaches and scouts alike. It seems more baseball speak than actually explaining why hitters are having troubles putting the ball in the air against him. Let’s take a look at Waldrop and see what factors into him becoming a ground ball monster. Following yet another clean outing in Fort Myers, manager Ron Gardenhire said of Waldrop “I think he just gets outs. He works quick and gets outs with a good angle.” Despite not dripping with much insight, Gardenhire’s assessment may have more to do with understanding how he is accomplishing this scorched-earth policy. The six-foot-five Waldrop has an excellent release point. In his major league debut last year, the Sportsvision’s pitch f/x camera system says that, on average, he released his pitches at six feet, seven inches high. Download attachment: Waldrop_Release Point.jpg That is a very high release point. To put that in perspective, Jon Rauch, baseball’s tallest indivudual at six-foot-ten, releases his pitches at six feet, seven-and-a-half inches high. In Ted Williams’ The Science of Hitting, published well before the avent of pitch f/x in 1970, the legendary hitter wrote that the majority of pitches are released somewhere between five feet, eight inches and six feet, six inches. Using that as a guideline, both Waldrop and Rauch are clearly above average in that department. Although they both share similar release points, the trajectory of their pitches favors Waldrop. Whereas Rauch’s came in at two feet, five inches on average, close to thigh high and in the middle third of the zone, Waldrop’s average pitch came in at two feet, two inches high – about slightly above the knee and in the lower third of the strike zone. Now this is the type of “downward plane” action that gets Bert all hot and bothered in the booth. More importantly, it is what makes hitters all hot and bothered. With that kind of fall and that kind of location, hitters have little choice but to hit the top half of the baseball, driving it into the ground. Yes, a strike out results in an out 100% of the time while a ground ball turns into an out roughly 76% of the time, however, neither can clear the fence on the fly and grounders do have a difficult time turning into extra base hits. Lacking the velocity (hitting 88.9 miles per hour on average) or the whiff-inducing breaking stuff, Waldrop has not gathered a ton of strike outs like most conventional prospective relief pitchers. Instead, he’s just keeping them from hitting it in the air – the next best thing. And that is his blueprint for success. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: dick bremer bert blyleven.jpg With the exception of one seasons in the early 1980s, Dick Bremer’s rich, jovial voice has been the definitive sound of summer for Minnesota Twins fans in the Upper Midwest since 1983. His professionalism, knowledge and ability to entertain a wide audience for many years are the reasons the Minnesota Broadcasters Hall of Fame recently selected him for induction. This honor, without question, was well deserved. It is interesting to think about how the ways people watch and understand the game of baseball have changed from his first days on the job. Back then the bulk of statistical analysis was being done covertly using computers the size and weight of a Kenmore dishwasher (and presumably in mom’s basement). In the same year Bremer began his Twins broadcasts, Bill James released the 1983 Baseball Abstract. In it he summarized the common understanding of the game by writing that the walk was greatly undervalued as an offensive weapon and that it was viewed as a “random result of being at bat when a pitcher is stricken with control trouble” rather than a skill. In that same book, James wondered why baseball fans at that time focused so much on end results, like wins and losses for pitchers, the RBI instead of the men who got on base to create the opportunity, and so on. “If the food is good,” wrote James, “you tip the waitress. Sabermetricians are an odd lot. We always want to know what the recipe was.” That’s the best definition I have ever heard for statistical analysis. Statistical analysis of baseball is wanting to know the recipe. Since then, the publication of Moneyball and the rise of websites like Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs have given a broader appeal and deeper understanding of statistical analysis to baseball fans. The knowledge of and access to what is in the recipe has grown tenfold. On the mainstream side, thirty years have passed and baseball’s broadcasters are still wrestling with how – of even if – they should communicate these findings to their audience. While there are some markets which have included some of the principles in their broadcasts, Minnesota has not been one of them. Twins’ radio broadcaster Cory Provus suggested that his medium is not designed to be able to properly inform without the visuals to drive it home. How about television? Dick Bremer shares his thoughts: How do you see advanced stats as it relates to broadcast today? “Stats have mushroomed into a completely different stratosphere. They call it “broadcasting” because you have to include as many people as you can. I think the new math in baseball tends to exclude a lot of people because a lot of people don’t comprehend it…yet. As we move forward, it will become more and more a part of the lexicon of baseball and it will be incorporated more into the broadcast.” Should broadcasters discuss some of the statistical analysis and advanced metrics most teams use in some capacity for roster-building? “I think it is getting to that point, I don’t know if it is quite there yet because I don’t know if our average viewer knows what WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is. When it gets to that point, then I think that our broadcast and other broadcasts will find it more mainstream subject matter to talk about. I just don’t think it is there yet. If we came on with Batting Average On Balls In Play, for instance, I think our audience – a significant portion of it – still would be, well, what’s that mean as opposed to batting average? Batting average is easy to explain though it is not the ideal stat to determine a hitter’s value in a lineup, but that’s something that everyone can comprehend. We still are in the business of trying to include people and not exclude them." How have the numbers, stats and analysis changed in over your career in the broadcast booth? “When I started this each team produced one sheet, front and back, for their press box. Now it’s five and you get the stat pack which is twenty-some pages and that doesn’t even begin to tell you the numbers you are speaking of, you know, what a player’s Wins Above Replacement is. That doesn’t even touch that and that is still so much more numerical information then we can give in a broadcast.” Television is a medium that gives the opportunity to put visuals of stats on the screen. “When we started giving more and more on the screen, the internal debate among play-by-play guys was now do we still need to give the count? Or do we mention that there are two outs? Or can people see the two dots on the screen? I think the consensus among most play-by-play guys is that we still need to do it because people are doing other things and they’re not locked in on the screen studying everything like some people are but most people are not so you still have to do the basics. Now, if information is given on the screen, the question is maybe the announcer should give other information then what we have to watch for is it becoming a mass of numbers. Even before sabermetricians became more common in baseball that was our great concern: What are we doing on television? We can do some things on TV that they cannot do radio. But are we giving people too many numbers? If you put up a screen full of numbers then you need to leave it on the screen so people can go ‘Ok, alright, ok I get it, this is what they are trying to say’ well then you are not watching the game.” Len Kasper and the Chicago Cubs WGN broadcasts do a regular Stats Sunday feature to discuss the concepts to the fans. Could you see FSN doing something similar? “Absolutely, to educate people, which is what we try to do and is one of our functions - to educate people about how the game is played and how decisions are made by people in the front office – absolutely I can see that happening. It hasn’t happened yet and maybe it is something that, to Len’s point, we should be adapting to or including in our broadcast. Anything that adds to or enhances the enjoyment of the game, that’s our job.” You’ve been broadcasting with the Twins since before the Moneyball area. Have you noticed many changes in the game? “Since then, you’ve seen it everywhere; you’ve seen it in the Twins organization. People are far more aggressive in analyzing the game mathematically. I think most baseball executives still need the new math to pass the eye test – what they see on the field. Are there numbers that support this? One thing that I saw years ago was that Wins Above Replacement was suggesting that Alexi Casilla was a really good middle infielder. I don’t know if anyone who saw him play the game believed that but yet you can find numbers out there that supported that. There’s been a change in that direction, there’s no question, and where it will lead I don’t know, but you still need scouts’ eyes and general managers’ eyes to see what the numbers might support." How about having an analyst dedicated to talking about the statistical side of the game in the broadcast? “If baseball’s new math becomes more mainstream, yeah, and it might very well be heading in that direction. What we have to do as broadcasters though is not talk over the heads of too many people and to the extent that most of our audience does not want to or can’t comprehend baseball’s new math, how much time would we spend trying to educate them over the course of an evening’s broadcast? What is Wins Above Replacement? I hate to keep using that one but that’s actually one of the more elementary ones in terms of explaining what it means. We’re still wondering once or twice a year if we should explain the Infield Fly Rule.” Click here to view the article

The Twins have signed 28-year-old Chris Colabello to a minor league deal. Colabello, a corner infielder for Worcester of the Can-Am League, hit .348/.410/.600 with 20 home runs in 412 plate appearances. That performance earned Colabello Baseball America's title of Indy League MVP. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Perkins.jpg Before the opener on Monday morning, Glen Perkins sat at his locker, lacing up a new pair of cleats. His locker’s location – one of four corner spots in the spacious clubhouse reserved for the pillars of the team like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, a spot that once was home to Joe Nathan’s garb – is standing as a reminder of his status with the team. It is hard to envision now but not long ago it appear that his time in the Twins organization was nearing an end. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Ineffectiveness, followed by a shoulder injury and topped with a semi-contentious battle regarding his arbitration status left him seeming like a pariah with the team. To observers, the left-hander who had grown up on the eastern edges of the Twin Cities and developed in the heart of Minneapolis for the Gophers looked to be on borrowed time. However, a switch to the bullpen combined with good health and a shift in his mental approach resuscitated his career with the Twins. And now? Now, he is one of the best relievers in the game. He won the organization’s Good Guy Award this past winter. He has a multi-year contract. He has been asked to play with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic. He has a 5K which he and his wife organize, Fifteen’s 5K, which raises money to benefit Cystic Fibrosis Foundation. He’s got nearly 16,000 followers on Twitter where his interactions range from telling someone the best way to prepare meat for the smoker to joshing that he switching from his current agent to Dwight Yoakam, in response to Robinson Cano’s switch to CAA that is partnered with Jay-Z. Plus - oh man - that coveted corner locker. There’s no question he is embraced in Minnesota. Over the past few years, the pitcher had become more analytical and thinking more about his craft, using sabermetric theories and tools as he wields the ball. Perkins says he has digested the information and ideas to add another level his game. Approaching a player and raising some timely statistical analysis is not a new shtick. In 2010, ESPN broadcaster Jon Sciambi wrote about his rather humorous encounter with Chipper Jones. The gist of it is Sciambi had presented Jones with some new data that the surefire Hall of Fame third baseman was not aware of: Jones had seen the fewest first-pitch strikes in the league. Sciambi wanted to know why the great hitter still swung at a high amount of first pitches seen. The data surprised Jones to the point where he circulated the findings around the clubhouse. The rest of the team, meanwhile, appeared well aware of this phenomenon. In a similar fashion Perkins, who was lacing up his fresh field kicks and readying himself for a new season of baseball, was asked if he was familiar with a recent study on Fangraphs.com. The piece studied Pitchf/x data for pitchers who had the highest percentage of pitches taken in the strike zone but was called balls. As the game’s foremost victim of squeezing, Cleveland’s Justin Masterson received the primary attention but Perkins was informed that he could find his name within the top ten as well. “So that obviously means I’m getting screwed,” Perkins replied a bit quizzically after being presented with the study’s synopsis. Well, yeah, by some measurements. The bulk of the data for the research was collected while Perkins was a starting pitcher, over 44 starts between 2007 and 2010. Still, that carried over into his first year as a full-time reliever. According to StatCorner.com’s data, in 2011, when opponents did not swing at in-zone pitches – those that are inside the strike zone as measured by Pitchf/x cameras – were called for a ball a whopping 25.7% of the time. By comparison, the rest of the league averaged 16.7%. A quarter of all pitches that should have been called strikes not being called strikes two years ago? Did the Perkins notice any of this? “To be honest with you, I feel like I get a pretty good zone. I mean, I throw in and I feel like there are some times when I get the pitches off the plate. I don’t feel like they are tight on me,” said Perkins. “I feel like my slider gets squeezed. Like I throw some on the inner half to righties that a catcher and it will be an inch or two in off the plate and that those catch the corner, the front corner of the plate, and sometimes I just don’t get those. That’s mainly it.” The speculation regarding his slider probably has some traction. After all, that cuts across the zone rather quickly, often making a catcher move and a hitter flinch. If you look at his strike zone map from TexasLeaguers.com which dates back to before the 2011 season, you can see quite a few of his sliders on the inside portion of the plate to righties were called for a strike. Conversely, there’s a significant grouping of sliders at the lower portion of the zone – right where Perkins senses he may be getting squeezed – that are literally borderline pitches that were not called for a strike. Download attachment: PerkinsSlider2.PNG Pitchf/x, a system of cameras designed to capture and catalogue the release point and where the pitch crosses the plate – while measuring velocity, spin and other data in-between – is not without its flaws. For starters, across baseball each stadium’s cameras are slightly different and therefore pump out slightly different results – some minuscule, some noticeable. Additionally, strike zones are not all the same for all hitters. That needs to be taken into account. So while Pitchf/x data suggests Perkins was hosed significantly in 2011, Inside Edge’s data refutes that. Their data – which is used by many major league teams including the Minnesota Twins and is compiled by video scouts – says that between 2011 and 2012, 90.9% (290 of 319 in-zone pitches taken) were called strikes compared to the 90.6% league average. Then there is the categorization of pitches. “I don’t ever throw changeups and it classifies them as changeups,” said Perkins. “If I go look at Brooks Baseball [brooksBaseball.net] after a game and I see it shows I threw two changeups, obviously I don’t throw that pitch so I know none of them are changeups.” While that aspect of the game has improved substantially, there are misses – such as Perkins’ slider being called a changeup. In 2011, Fangraphs.com’s Pitchf/x database says that 17.7% of his offerings were changeups. But even the human element gets fooled too. Fangraphs.com’s other pitch database, one provided by Baseball Info Solutions and their team of video scouts, says that he threw 1.4% changeups in 2011. Rather than being satisfied with the numbers stating he was getting screwed, Perkins continues to ask questions about the study. He wants to understand why instead of taking it at face value. Did the study break it down by pitch type? Is that available? He offers up several hypotheses as to why he may be getting squeezed, why Pitchf/x is not categorizing his pitch correctly and deliberates on the meaning of it all. This brought him full circle to his career’s rebirth which coincided with his exploration of a more analytical approach to the game. “I didn’t get into any advanced stats until 2010 when I was in Triple-A and struggling,” said Perkins. “It was a combination of [Ryan] Vogelsong and when Brandon McCarthy came back and I started to hear about those guys who were injured or unsuccessful and then they adjusted their pitch selections and focused doing different things. That got me thinking, maybe it’s something I should do.” It doesn’t hurt, too, that Perkins returned equipped with a mid-90s fastball whereas the other two starters barely get out of the 80’s -- quite the advantage before even considering the added layer of sabermetric insight. “Part of it is that I throw harder,” Perkins acknowledges, completely ignoring the fact that his slider bends through space and time. “But I know what I don’t want to do. I know what results I don’t want. You can’t obviously get ideal results across the board all the time, but I know that I don’t want to get fly balls and I don’t want to walk guys.” Of course, Perkins knows that there is more to his success than just knowing the sabermetric basics – like getting ground balls and not walking people. There needs to be an ability to execute pitches. Consider Brian Bannister. Prior to the emergence of McCarthy and Vogelsong, Bannister’s foray into the stat community drew attention but, ultimately, because of his natural ability limits Bannister could not practice what he preached as well as the other three pitchers. “It was: This is what I need to do. I knew early last year I had a higher ERA but I knew that I had given up base hits, I had given up a two-run homer to Hamilton, I knew that over time that if I continued to execute my pitches, my ERA would end up matching up with my FIP and that I do not need to change what I’m doing because I have an eight [ERA] 4 innings into the season. Over the course of the season – and it did -- it will even out.” Now, with his shoes fastened and prepared to join the rest of his team for warm-ups, Perkins concluded the advanced stats discussion with a refreshing simplification of the art that has inspired numerous websites to generate charts, graphs, theorems, percentages and raw numbers to better understand a position that teams pay millions upon millions for: “It is obvious stuff in hindsight, but keep the ball down, try to get ground balls, don’t give up fly balls and don’t walk guys.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Mauer.jpg The Minnesota Twins' Dustin Morse announced via Twitter that the Twins will officially move Joe Mauer from catcher to first base for the 2014 season. In October, general manager Terry Ryan told Twins Daily in his offseason interview that the team was not planning for Mauer to move away from behind the plate and the transition from catching to first was ultimately Mauer's decision. "I'm not preparing for anything different than we prepared for last year," Ryan said. "That decision's still coming down to whether or not he wants to catch for sure. The good thing is he's, I would say, he's 95 percent right now, which is good. That's a decision that's going to come down on whether or not he wants to stay back there, and how much he wants to stay back there, and how much he wants to stay back there. But right now I'm preparing for him to be back there." The move obviously opens up questions as to the team's plans for catcher in 2014. Veteran Ryan Doumit also suffered a concussion that removed him from the position at the end of the year and Josmil Pinto, while promising in September, is still learning. Although Pinto's character and coachability have been lauded, there still is work defensively, said Ryan. "There were days that I was a little concerned. With any kid that comes up, you're not going to have a polished product," Ryan noted. In addition to Doumit and Pinto, Ryan mentioned minor leaguer Eric Fryer as a player who contributed positively in 2013 (albeit at the minor league level) and there are several free agent catching options available on the market. The team's official press release cites that while Mauer is symptom free from the concussion suffered late 2013, the increasingly inherent dangers of the position necessitated the move. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: Duensing.jpg Left-handed relievers are valuable if under-appreciated members of society. You know, like oxygen. While they may seem ubiquitous and always available, a team could get killed if it doesn't have any. They have a certain vampiric quality to them as they are seemingly able to last forever while continually finding work. Darren Oliver, 42-years-old, has been employed steadily. Despite mixed results, J.C. Romero, until this year, had also hung around baseball for a long time. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Even with numerous options out there, when the trade deadline comes around, contending teams rush to acquire just one or two for safe measure. Because of this it is possible Minnesota Twins’ reliever Brian Duensing threw his last pitch with the team on Tuesday night. Admittedly, Duensing does not quite fall into the category of specialist. In the recent past, he had been able to dominate same-sided opponents with a big slider. Judging by that alone, it appeared he would make a strong left-handed reliever. After bouncing from the rotation to the bullpen through his five years with Minnesota, 2013 has been the first year he has been a full-time reliever. And this season he has been asked to retire lefties more than in previous years. “The only thing I feel like is really different, is the fact that I am more focused strictly on the lefties,” says Duensing regarding his approach. “I’m not coming in worrying about the righties as much, but I’m facing righties a little more than I did earlier in the season. The main thing is that it is kind of hard, at this very moment I don’t have the feeling that I know exactly where it’s going to go all the time. Which is fine: If I don’t know where it’s going, they don’t know where it’s going.” This admission, when synchronized with Mike Moustakas’ eighth inning solo home run on Wednesday night, highlights Duesning’s shortcoming this season. Catcher Joe Mauer called for the standard slider down and away to the left-handed hitting Moustakas but the pitch was up and middle-in and wound up just inside the right field foul pole. To be sure, the home run was a rare event off Duensing – just his second allowed in 2013 – yet command issues are noticeable. The transition to the bullpen has allowed Duensing to air it out constantly knowing that he will have a short outing, more so this year than past years. After averaging 4.0 outs per appearance from 2009 to 2012 while in relief, he’s down to 2.4 outs per appearances this season. As such he’s hitting closer to 93 on the gun. Of course, the trade-off may be the decline in precision. For instance, the lack of command has been seen in Duensing’s overall peripheral numbers. After walking just seven percent of all batters faced, the lefty has issued free passes to ten percent of hitters this year. So does he believe the fastball -- when trying to rear back and aim at triple-digits on the radar -- is the culprit? “It’s basically all of them. It’s kind of scary but, as of lately, the results have been a little better.” For the most part, sure. After all, Duensing had been stringing together a good series of appearances. In seven appearances from July 9 to July 26, he had not allowed a run to score. However he was playing with fire in several of those outings, allowing four walks and a hit batter in 6.2 innings. Last night, he struggled to retire four Royals lefties in a row. Duensing seems content with his role in the bullpen but acknowledges the challenges of transitioning from a starter to a reliever take preparation. “It’s not easy to come to the ballpark everyday and be prepared to throw. As a starter you have four days off in between, so mentally it is kind of taxing on you to try to figure out when you are going to pitch. Every day you might pitch. You might throw three, four days in a row or you might not throw for five.” The move is not always as simple as it might seem. In 2011, while with the Twins, current Miami Marlin Kevin Slowey was reassigned to the bullpen but struggled with his new role. Some research has indicated many pitchers have moved from starter to reliever and not only have done well but thrived, with added velocity or a specialized role. Look no further than Duensing’s current bullpen mate Glen Perkins who has rebounded from fallen starter to All-Star reliever with a mid-90s fastball and devastating slider. On the other hand, others cannot clear the preparation hurdle. That was Slowey’s biggest downfall. Manager Ron Gardenhire noted in May of that season that they would call down to the pen to get Slowey ready, he would throw “five or six pitches” then say he was ready. The results were that Slowey needed a few days of rest afterward. There is a reason why marathon runners do not always make good sprinters. More often than not, Gardenhire has been consistent with Duensing’s use in 2013 and Duensing has given him no indication that he is not equipped to handle that sort of treatment. According to Baseball-Reference.com, 31 of Duensing’s appearances have come with no days or one day off between outings. In his 10 appearances with no days of rest between, he has limited opponents to a .257 average and just two runs. Although not quite the rubber-band man that Matt Guerrier was during his late 2000s heyday, Duensing has demonstrated he can be ready when needed, a fact which he attributes to preparing for the marathon of starting and adjusting for the sprint of the bullpen. “In the offseason, I prepare like I’m going to start,” he says. “ Obviously, it is a lot easier if you are prepared to go long, it’s a long easier to go short. During the season, like when they said I was going to be in the bullpen, I changed my mentality and the throwing I do – you are not playing long-toss every day, you are kind of shortening up here and there and you are really paying attention to how your arm and body feels and how it is working, ‘cause you have to be ready to go every day, so you have to make sure you know what it takes to make sure you are ready to go.” Duensing, is now in his fifth season in the majors and will have his second year of arbitration this offseason, says the experience has helped breed familiarity with his opponents – something that can be both good and bad. “There are some guys I feel comfortable knowing how I want to go about pitching them. There are some guys who I still may not have a good idea about. I am also noticing that I may have fallen into patterns the last few years – like I noticed a lot of lefties try to take the same kind of approach on me.” The book for left-handed pitchers says to stay away from lefties – bust them on the outer-half of the plate with fastball and breaking pitches. Duensing started to feel that same-sided opponents were cheating a bit and going with that pitch. Instead, he has been trying to go inside more often to left-handed opponents. “I’ve had a lot of success going in on lefties. So I don’t know if that means the ball is running a bit more or if they are looking middle-away, I feel like that is a typical way a lefty would pitch a lefty, away with sliders and fastballs. I try to get out of my normal patterns and keep them guessing.” Like on Wednesday night, Duensing sawed off former college teammate and groomsman Alex Gordon’s bat into a toothpick on a fastball inside. However, Gordon won the battle with his friend with a liner the other way when Duensing went back outside with a fastball that stayed away but up in the zone. When asked if he has ever reviewed Pitchf/x data, Duensing said he had brief encounters with the numbers but had not explored anything to any extend; he has felt more comfortable trying to gain an edge by examining video and watching hitters in the box. He admits it may be time to take another look to see if the information on Pitch f/x can help him break away from tendencies that opponents have picked up over the years. “That might help me with tendencies and why certain guys are taking certain swings on certain counts. I feel like it is human nature to get into a tendency, to get into a pattern. Especially if something is working, you are going to stick with it. It would be interesting to find out if there was something I could change.” Click here to view the article

Download attachment: morneau.jpg Since his return to the lineup this month, Justin Morneau has seemingly been driving the ball to the opposite field not only better but also more frequently. In Detroit, the big left-hander crushed a home run over the left-center field fence and then went the other way with pitches in Milwaukee over the weekend – one for a bloop single and the other for a sacrifice fly. In all, nine of his 17 balls in play prior to last night’s game went to the left of dead center. While it is a small sample size, Morneau has hit 52% of his balls to the left of center in May which dwarf’s April’s 28%. [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Positive as that may be, Morneau’s season has been a bit perplexing, particularly in the plate discipline department. Although he has always had the tendency to chase pitches out of the zone, the level at which he is straying after pitches has reached a career-high of 40%. In 2011, while he was having issues keeping his weight back and his hip closed, the strategy that opposing teams implemented was to keep the ball out of the strike zone and allow the Twins first baseman to get himself out – particularly when being pitched away. Often, Morneau would be out ahead of the pitch and harmless turnover on the pitch to the right-side of the infield. This year teams are pretty much attacking him in the same many only now they have added a wrinkle: more curves. One significant change is that opponents have been pumping him curve balls this season. It would seem that the league-wide scouting report on Morneau is that his eagerness to catch up with the fastball away has ripened him for a stream of curve balls to disrupt his timing on the hard stuff. And, so far, the league has been successful in shutting him down with this pitch. Download attachment: Morneau and the curve.jpg In 2010, the last year Morneau was truly “dialed in”, the first baseman hit curve balls at 5.0 runs above average clip according the Fangraphs.com Pitch Value system. That year, Morneau drove those hanging curve balls fairly well. While seeing fewer than 10% of the overall pitch distribution as curves, Pitch F/X data found at JoeLefkowicz.com says that he went 10-for-30 on curve balls put into play (a very good .333 BABIP) while hitting another four for home runs. Meanwhile, this year, Morneau has seen a steady increase in the amount of breaking pitches thrown his direction, receiving curves 18% of the time in 2012. Unlike his 2010 campaign, Morneau has not had nearly as much success against the hook. By Fangraphs.com’s Pitch Value metric, he has posted a career-low 2.2 runs below average which is based on the fact that he is just 1-for-11 on curves in play (.090 BABIP) – including a fly out to center off of one of Gavin Floyd’s benders in the third inning last night - while putting a high margin of those in play as grounders. Given the fact that he is starting to rekindle his love affair with driving the outside pitch to left field, there are reasons to remain optimistic for his production. By driving the ball to left, Morneau is demonstrating he can keep his weight and hands back - two main elements that help in adjusting to the curve ball. For Morneau, the season is still fairly young and he certainly has the capabilities of rebounding, that is, if he can remain healthy. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: AG.jpg At 7 PM tonight, join NBCSports.com's writer, proprietor of AaronGleeman.com and the co-host of Gleeman & The Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman, for a live chat to discuss all things Twins, baseball and any other general topic you want to ask. So finish your dinner, put away the dishes, and hunker down in front of the warm glow of the computer! [PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Live Chat with NBCSport's Aaron Gleeman Click here to view the article

Download attachment: USATSI_7882414.jpg The narrative for Joe Mauer this offseason was that the transition to first base was going to heal his legs, provide him with superhuman power, and maybe help him find the missing Malaysian plane in his spare time. So far, none of that has happened. To Twins fans, the most relevant is the power. Through 19 games this year, he has just three extra base hits in his back pocket - two doubles and a home run. Beyond that, Mauer has accumulated 24 strikeouts in 90 plate appearances, an extremely high rate by his standards. While the conversation revolving around his lack of dingers and ribbies is mindbogglingly shortsighted, there are some elements to his early season numbers that may help confirm some of what the “eye-testers” are seeing. Here are a few things to consider. Mauer is having issues against non-fastballs Curves, sliders, changeups and everything in between, if it ain’t straight heat, Mauer has not been Mauer this season. From 2009 to the end of last season Mauer compiled a .262 batting average on pitches that were not fastballs. That rate is not otherworldly -- Miguel Cabrera leads baseball with a .301 average in that time -- but Mauer’s figure was still well above the league’s average. His ability to allow the ball to travel deep into the zone before executing his patent inside-out swing, combined with a doctorate in zone comprehension, made it a difficult proposition for pitchers to break off a bender. This year has been a different story. Pitchers have mixed in more of these types of pitches to improved results. Following Tuesday’s game against the Rays, the curve that he laced off the cup of pitcher David Price notwithstanding, Mauer is hitting just .182 against non-fastballs. The most significant difference appears to be his ability to put the ball in play. According to ESPN/TruMedia’s database, Mauer has put the ball in play on just 33% of his swings compared to the 49% he has in the previous years. What’s more, the balls Mauer is putting in play have not been exactly scorched, says his well-hit average. From 2009 to 2013, Mauer held a .213 well-hit average on secondary pitches. So far in 2014, that number is at .093. (While it is almost certain that the video scouts would include the fourth-inning liner off of Price’s manhood as “well-hit”, that hit failed to even knock the big lefty out of the game in spite of catching the pitcher square between the legs.) Two-strike situations have been un-Mauer-like Over the previous five seasons, Mauer has been one of the best two-strike hitters in the game. With the best batting average (.257) and seventh-highest on-base percentage (.312) in that time, the Twins’ best compensated player was the hardest for pitchers to retire despite the two-strike advantage. This year, with a direct correlation to the aforementioned secondary struggles, Mauer has been decisively different. Putting the ball in play with success has been difficult, and as his current .167 average would suggest, pitchers are finding it much easier to put him away with a strikeout. In two-strike situations, Mauer’s vaunted contact abilities have taken a leave of absence so far this year. Whereas from 2009 to 2013 he had a 14.8% swing-and-miss rate, that has skyrocketed to 27.7% this year. For the visual learners, Mauer’s contact rate heat map shows a Swiss cheese-like pattern on his two-strike swings (below) in comparison to last year (above): Download attachment: Joe Mauer_2-strike.jpg Mauer’s swing zone has changed One of the explanations behind his increased strikeout rate and his lack of power may have to do with his swing location selection. Download attachment: Joe Mauer_swing rate.jpg Mauer has had a very concise swing zone over the past five years, focusing mainly on offerings that come in on the upper inner-half of the plate. These pitches he has been able to drive to left field with some authority as he lets the ball travel deeper into the zone. So far this year he has expanded this area, bleeding over to the other hemisphere of the plate. In the past, Mauer has done well with pitches on the outer half -- particularly when going the other way. For instance, last year he hit .536 (37-for-69) with 14 doubles and four home runs when he drove the ball to left on the outside portion of the zone. This year he’s just 3-for-13 with no extra base hits when going the other way on pitches away. Repeat of last year? So, for those who feel that this Joe Mauer is different than previous versions of Joe Mauer, you are not wrong. One big reason not to panic is because of the overall sample size. After missing substantial amount of time at the end of 2012, Mauer came into 2013 cold as well. A little over 100 plate appearances (109 to be exact), he was hitting .283/.349/.394. This prompted a similar write-up to this one in response to the mass hysteria regarding his lack of production. Per usual, Mauer responded and rebounded by hitting an absurd .335/.415/.500 from then until his untimely concussion in August. This season’s slow start, like that of last year, may just be residue of rust hanging on from his extended time away from the game or simply a slow start. Settle down, everyone. Click here to view the article

Download attachment: aaron-nola-nola.jpg The six-foot-two Aaron Nola might not fire the fastest bullets among this year’s draft class but the right-handed junior out of LSU might be the most major league ready arm. But is a pitcher the organization's highest priority? Who is this guy? Nola, a graduate of Catholic High School in Baton Rouge, LA (that’s French for “Red Stick”), was an intriguing enough a prospect after his senior year of high school that the Toronto Blue Jays selected him with their 22nd round pick in 2011. At that time, the six-foot-two fungo bat was wheeling 92 mile an hour fastballs in Perfect Game events. Several rounds later, the Blue Jays took Aaron’s older brother Austin, a shortstop from LSU, in hopes of getting the family discount. Both Nolas delayed their professional careers at that time to play together in the storied baseball program in Louisiana. The younger Nola had a terrific freshman year among the elite competition with the likes of Mike Zunino, terrorizing pitchers with aluminum bats. For his part, Aaron Nola finished the year 7-4 in 19 games and 89 strikeouts in 89.2 innings pitched. Leading the Tigers staff that season was Kevin Gausman, who would be drafted fourth overall by the Baltimore Orioles (one slot behind the ball-killing Zunino). In his sophomore season, Nola combined with a future Twins prospect Ryan Eades to be the one-two punch for the Tigers that made it to the College World Series and finished with a 12-1 record, 1.57 ERA, and a 122-to-18 strikeouts-to-walks ratio in 17 starts. After the CWS run, LSU’s coach, Paul Mainieri, noted that 22 professional scouts were on-hand to watch one of Nola’s intrasquad fall practice starts heading into 2014. So far this season he has not wasted anyone’s scouting budget -- maybe except if your organization is drafting outside the Top 10 however. Nola has racked up a 9-1 record with a 1.42 ERA and the best strikeout rate of his career (10.62 K/9). Why the Twins will pick him Nola possesses the kind of command that makes the Twins front office swoon. Yes, I know. Twins fans read that a pitcher has above-average command and immediately assume he pitches to contact. That’s not the case with Nola. Unlike the more recent pitching draft picks, Nola doesn’t have the power arm that Eades or Jose Berrios have but there is little question that his fastball is a significant weapon. With a slinging three-quarter arm slot, Nola is able to put on a lot of sink and generate plenty of missed bats while hovering at 90-92 miles an hour. The radar gun readings do not do his fastball justice however, as the sound is what makes hitters take notice. “It sounds like a loud whistle,” Sean McMullen, LSU’s designated hitter and outfielder, told the local media. “It’s as loud as anybody I’ve ever faced.” Beyond the fastball, Nola has an above-average changeup that is considered his best secondary pitch but he also has a developing breaking ball. His stuff isn’t overpowering but his deceptive delivery (there’s some good extension at release) and pitch movement show a polished pitcher who could be MLB ready real soon, as one anonymous cross-checker told MLB.com. Why the Twins won’t pick him There does not seem to be a real reason to not draft Nola at five if they want to target a pitcher unless one of the higher-upside arms like Brady Aiken, Carlos Rodon or Tyler Kolak somehow falls to them. And the Twins went pitcher/catcher in 2013 so there may be some gravitation towards position players like Nick Gordon or Alex Jackson (a catcher who may not remain a catcher). Nola has the stuff to rise quickly through the system but that might not be the Twins biggest need in 2014. ------------------------------------------------------------- With another Twins win over San Diego on Wednesday night, you can get half-price large or extra-large pizza at PapaJohn’s.com with the promo code “TWINSWIN.” Click here to view the article