jmlease1

Rosario is a real future is he learns to control the strike zone. He's got the skills to do it, but he needs to find the discipline. He's not going to have long-term success with an OBP under .300. But his defense has been really fun to watch (last night's botch for a "double" not withstanding); it's been a real treat to watch him gun down runners and his range in the corners is exactly what this bunch of fly ball pitchers needs. He's got the track record to suggest he can up the walks at least a little and cut down on the K's, so he should be able to hit enough to hold down an OF spot and the defense makes him a plus player. I think we've got someone locking down a position, which is what we wanted to get out of this season: locking in players for the future.

Duffey's Uncle Charlie is a thing of beauty. I wonder if some of it's effectiveness is because of the emphasis on the slider in today's MLB as a breaking pitch? When you don't see it as often, it's got to be harder to hit a good power curve... I like what we're seeing here. He's still walking a few more people than I'd like (and I'm sure the Twins aren't thrilled either), but the FIP is basically matching the ERA, the peripherals are all good, he's shown an ability to get into the 7th inning, and he's not just doing it against a bunch of weak sisters who have given up for the year. (Sure, Detroit and CWS are dead teams walking, but the Astros and Angels sure aren't) Duffey isn't a lock for the rotation next season, but he absolutely should be higher up on the list than Nolasco or even Milone.

I was opposed to the Nolasco deal at the time, mostly because I just didn't see him as that high value of a player, moving from the NL to the AL and other than eating a lot of innings he'd really only had one particularly good season. But it wasn't a crazy deal...unfortunately he hasn't been healthy. The Suzuki contract was a classic instance of buying high on a guy that the team should have known was going to decline/revert. That's a bad one with some questionable thinking behind it. And it was repeated with Hughes...guy has one excellent season and the team changes course like that's the new normal. Now, I still think the Hughes contract will pay off fine for the team, despite his struggles this year (it's not an outrageous amount for a starting pitcher, his age is good, etc) but it wasn't necessary. Under his old contract he was a massive discount. Now he's a push. As has been said before, Santana's deal is a market one. His suspension was a bad one, but I can't bash the team for it. And we were all pretty happy with his first couple of starts, weren't we? Right now we may just be looking at small sample size issues there, so I'm not panicking on Santana. But it is pretty notable how poorly the top paid players on this roster are playing. (people aren't talking about Torii Hunter in this context either, but he and his $10M contract have fallen off the cliff too.) The Twins need to ensure they don't vest Suzuki's contract for 2017 by playing him too much in 2016 and get out from under it. Nolasco was showing signs of viability before this latest injury disaster (FIP of 2.80, K/9 back up to 7.7) so if he can get healthy he should be fine in the back of the rotation for the next 2 years; possibly over-priced, but not absurd. We don't have to worry too much about his vesting for 2018; if he hits 400 innings over the next 2 seasons after this one a) it'll be a miracle, and a sign that he's actually worth the money. There's no real solution for Mauer except to hope he gets his bat speed back and starts really hitting again. Unless he moves back to catcher...where we need the help... I will say this: all the twins contract decisions, with the exception of Suzuki, make sense in a vacuum. (sorry, doubling the pay of a 30 year-old coming off a season that was better than anything he'd had in the previous 5 was just a mistake. the "all-star" season was a fluke)

Most of the national prognosticators had the Twins clocking in at 70-72 wins, so even if the Twins don't make the playoffs there's a lot of reasons to find success in a season if they can land around .500, especially after so many 90-loss seasons in a row. The additional wins are nice, but we're also finally seeing some prospect development come to fruition. That's where the real success of the season is going to come. The OF looks to have a real future, both offensively and defensively. None of them are perfect yet, but Rosario, Hicks, and Buxton would be a phenomenally good defensive alignment. Hicks and Rosario are both showing they can hit MLB pitching and with Buxton's skill you have to believe he'll adapt as well. Sano has been terrific. Yes, we'll have to watch the K's, but the power is awesome, the patience is there and there's no question his bat plays in a big way. May and Gibson have been developing nicely as pitchers as well. You have to feel confident in them as young parts of the rotation. Finding young players who can actually play is a huge part of the success for this season. And figuring out who can't is a part of it too. We know we don't have answers at SS & C. we know the bullpen needs to be stabilized with more consistent arms. Next year the expectations are going to be higher, and they should. but this season is showing some real growth. Now, about Nolasco...

Dozier is having a terrific season, and it's really nice to see. I was very happy they signed him to a long-term deal this year and spending $18M on him over the next 3 years looks like a steal right now (there's no way he doesn't pull bigger numbers in arbitration). You have to hope some of the young guys in the system look at how he's built himself into an all-star caliber player and follow suit. He's been building in new components of his game every season and now he's a guy every team would want. Kipnis is having a better season right now, but not by all that much. It should be the two of them playing 2B at the all-star game this year. (Pedroia is still great too, however) But that's nice company to be in.

Molitor is showing some creativity and that's good. I think his instincts are to be a little more aggressive than Gardy, and he's a little less rigid in his use of players. It would be good for TR to give him a little more flexibility on the roster with a smaller pitching staff. Let's be honest: there's no real reason for us to carry 12 pitchers, let alone 13.

Why on earth would we trade a borderline all-star under team control? I'm more interested in an extension for Plouffe than trading him. This is a team that's starting to come together towards the end of a major rebuilding effort. That's not the time to start dealing players hitting their primes! Sano is showing he still needs some work, but regardless of when he finally gets here they will find room in the lineup for him and Plouffe. Clearly, no one is established at the DH slot, the team should have a corner OF slot opening up (does anyone really expect Hunter back?) and there's room for someone to backup Mauer at 1B as well to get some ABs. Once you're sure Sano is ready and you still think there's no room for Plouffe, then you can think about dealing him, but we're nowhere near there yet.

Remarkably, the Twins are doing all of this without their top FA signing, Mr Ervin Suspended Santana. But it says a great deal about how much deeper the rotation is this season as opposed to previous years. Guys that would have been slotted in easily as the 4th or 5th starter in previous years wouldn't even be in contention as the next guy up from AAA this year, and that's very encouraging. Would I like a little more star-power at the top of the rotation? Sure, but Hughes has developed into a legitimate #1, and we're finally seeing the improvement and talent from other spots of the rotation. Nolasco clearly has the off-speed stuff to succeed and if he can spot his fastball better and finish off hitters more efficiently going forward, he could finally put up the kind of season we had in mind when we signed him. (he still seems to be tiring right around 90 pitches or so, losing his release point, and there goes the control) Gibson is lowering the BB's, raising up some additional K's and with his GB% he should continue to be a very good innings-eater, especially with the defense improving behind him. May is still figuring some things out, but his last 2 starts have been encouraging, and he's been solid overall. He's giving up a few too many hits right now, but his stuff is good enough to bring that down as he learns how to work batters in MLB. More importantly, he's not walking everyone in sight and he's been a little unlucky so far. Pelfrey is the one who should be the first to go when Santana is ready to come back. He's not part of the long-term future here, his peripherals aren't good, he's clearly going to fall back to earth at some point and be the mediocre pitcher with limited upside he always was. Frankly, I'm hoping he keeps it up to the all-star break and someone desperate for pitching will let up flip him for a prospect, but if not he has to be the guy who heads to the bullpen. But consider this situation in relationship to last season: we're talking about which decent pitcher is going to get bumped from the rotation, as opposed to begging for basic competence. Last season we gave 26 starts to Yohan Pino, Sam Deduno, Anthony Swarzak, Logan Darnell and Kris Johnson. Only one of these guys is even with the franchise any longer (Darnell, who is back in the minors where he belongs), one is out of baseball (Johnson), and of the other three only one is starting in MLB (Deduno) and he's been terrible. And that's not counting the 37 starts handed to Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Milone last season when none of them were any good. This team isn't giving away starts this year, unlike last season. This is why the projections for the Twins being a 70 win team again (before Santana's suspension especially) were foolish. I don't expect them to keep up this pace all year; there are still holes in the lineup and Pelfrey's success is unsustainable. The bullpen still has some issues. But it's amazing what happens when you're not tossing every 3rd start on the scrap heap.

Kepler is a guy who is going to put some pressure on Rosario and Arcia, and again: that's a good thing. While I don't see him ever playing much CF in MLB (especially with Buxton and Hicks around) he could be a plus defender in either corner spot. It wouldn't bother me at all for Kepler to push Arcia to the DH slot and be able to run out an OF of Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario with Hicks as the 4th guy. That crew could run down a lot of balls out there and runners would be a lot more reluctant to take the extra base against those arms. There's a talent flood coming soon as a few spots on this roster, and the Twins are going to have to make the smart/right choices in order to field the best team in the short term and keep the system stocked. It's a good problem to have, but a hard one for the GM. Who gets dealt and when? With Plouffe, Mauer, Sano, Arcia, Vargas, Kepler, Rosario you've got 7 guys for about 5 roster spots.Making the right calls on who to keep and who to move will be critical.

His D has clearly moved into the average to above average range. The mistakes still stick out a little more with him because of his history; when a guy has struggled defensively you tend to notice when they tank one and think "here we go again". He's hitting well and not hurting the team defensively, which is a pretty big asset at 3B. If he continues to improve his D, he's going to make it harder for Sano to push him out of the way at 3B, and that's a good thing. He's a borderline all-star right now, which isn't something I would have thought I would ever say about Plouffe 2-3 years ago. 2012 he was solid at the plate and the Butcher of Cairo in the field. 2013 he was starting to show basic competence in the field, but the hitting fell off. Last year he started to put it all together and he's continued to grow this year. It's really nice to see. Plouffe is reminding me a lot of Corey Koskie, another guy who struggled in the field, but stuck with it, put in the work and made himself a terrific all-around 3B.

Pelfrey is the one I want pushed out of the rotation if anyone gets pushed. His success is the least likely to be sustained and he's also not going to be part of the team's future. (If he's re-signed next season or god forbid given an extension this season, I'm rage-quitting the Twins. That would be a fireable offense for Terry Ryan.) The only thing that makes me hesitate even a little about that is whether it would reduce the team's ability to flip him for, well, anything when Ervin Santana comes back, but I could live with it. Gibson and May are both contenders to be in the rotation for the next several years, so we need to see who they are in sustained time at MLB. Gibson needs to add in a few more Ks and bring down the walks to sustain his success, but a) both things are viable for him, and he's got a track record and the grounders to do it. May has nothing left to prove in AAA but we need to see if he can learn to be more efficient in his early innings finishing off batters and finding ways to get through that 5th & 6th inning to really be a guy they can count on. but he's shown promise this year and is keeping the walks reasonable. Milone is a nice guy and could be useful as the #5 starter this year. It's great having him as depth this season, and forcing guys to compete for spots and not have people there on scholarship. But I don't see him being a long-term part of this rotation, and I don't think he should push May out of the rotation.

It's encouraging to see Nolasco missing bats and tying guys into knots with his breaking stuff, but his fastball seems to still be too hittable and he's still struggling with his command, which builds up his pitch counts way too fast. Additionally, he seems to have fatigue problems once he gets up over about 80 pitches or so; while his start against Detroit was good, you could also see he was cooked in the 6th when his release point started to change and he was flailing pitches all around the zone. Hopefully he can build up strength and gain consistency.

ABW's inability to draw walks so far is why clearing out Arcia to make space for him is a foolish idea. Seth is right: the power is absolutely legit. But until he learns to draw some walks he'll get killed against MLB pitching. I'm really rooting for Kepler, who just as he seems to be figuring it out has had injury issues. Here's hoping he continues to build on success. He's got tools and seems to finally be translating them to on-field success. I like his positional flexibility and he looks like a real asset. Thorpe's Tommy John surgery is a real shame, but hopefully he can come back from it. It's a little concerning that it's hit on him so early in his career; does this mean there's a problem in his mechanics that's going to make this a recurring problem? Or force a change that will cause him to lose effectiveness? His youth suggests greater opportunity to come back from the injury, but does it also portend greater injury concerns in the future?

I'm absolutely baffled by the sudden desire to dump Arcia. He's got 30 HR potential, he's young, and he's cheap. Sure, he'd bring a big haul of prospects in return but that's not what the team needs right now. Also, the idea that the team would choose to pay Hunter to DH over keeping Arcia would be a fireable offense. Hunter might have another year left in the tank after this one, but he's not in the long term plans of any team. Arcia certainly should be. If Hicks can show effectiveness from the LH side of the plate, he's going to stick (even if he has a few brain farts in the field or on the basepaths). Arcia just needs to calm down at the plate again and he should be an effective LF. Hunter will get us through this season in RF and Robinson makes for a reasonable 4th OF this year. But the future is an OF rotation of Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, and Rosario. That should be an exciting prospect for a lot of reasons: there should be plenty of offense, even if Arcia stays below average overall it should be a fine defensive alignment, and it's going to be cheap for some time. Rosario should be a great fit as a 4th OF. Look, Arcia isn't great in LF, but he'll be able to get by out there. There's no need to look at moving him to DH any time soon. But frankly, it's a good thing that there are guys in the minors that are putting pressure on people in the majors. That means you have depth to guard against injury. That means you're not promoting guys too early any more out of desperation (Hicks). And it means you can trade assets from a position of strength to keep the minors strong. Arcia isn't going anywhere unless he gets too expensive AND doesn't fit in the OF any longer.

I think we'll see an uptick in K's for Gibson; his current rate looks like the epitome of fluky. The key for him is bringing down the BBs. Despite his terrific GB ratio and ability to keep the ball in the yard, he's not going to sustain his success if he's walking 3+ guys per game. But I think it's likely that he'll up the K's a bit (probably around 5K's per 9) and trim the walks down to the 2.0-2.5 range. That'll be enough to make him a solid starter. Hughes will be fine. I'm a little nervous that so many balls are flying out right now and hope this isn't a regression to the bad old Yankee days, but overall his peripherals are fine and adding Hicks to the OF rotation should help him out a bit too. May has been a bit unlucky so far, but I like his stuff. He needs a bit of rope and more turns in the rotation. He's been doing a solid job in keeping the walks down (his real problem in the minors) and can get the Ks. Being able to call on a guy like him to fill an injury/inability slot instead of turning to guys like Hernandez or some of the other clowns we've trotted out is a really big deal. Nolasco still worries me, but if healthy he should be able to be a solid 4-5 rotation guy, and that's a vast improvement over the disaster of a year ago. He's going to be overpaid in my book, but if he's competent it's a huge improvement. Pelfrey is the one whose success seems least sustainable to me, but he's been good so far. I'm hoping he can hold it together until Santana returns and then can get flipped to a contender for a prospect from someone who thinks he'll hold it together for the rest of the year. He's not part of the future, so I don't want him pushing May out of the rotation when Santana comes back. The real kicker for the Twins (and something the national pundits keep forgetting when they mock our rotation) is how much growth the Twins rotation had to give between the last 2 years and basic competence. and getting to that basic competence really can get the Twins a big leap, a bigger one that most people are thinking of. The offense is already good. Not elite, but above average and capable. match that with a competent starting staff and things get interesting pretty quickly.

I think it's time for Hicks. I've seen enough of Schafer to be convinced he's not going to suddenly start raking enough to get his triple slash line up to something adequate any time soon if ever. He's just not that good. At best, he's a 4th OF and we already have one of those guys in Shane Robinson (who is significantly outplaying him, albeit in a much smaller role). But I won't be shocked, or even all that outraged if the team waits to see where Arcia is at before they make a major roster move. I wouldn't be surprised at all if they bring up Hicks at the same time they bring back Arcia and send Rosario back down to work on some things. The Twins will need to see what Hicks can do in MLB for an extended period soon. This is the make-or-break year for him, with his options running out and Buxton knocking on the door. But it's also a good year for the team to give him a real run again: Schafer is an easy candidate to relegate (I can't see anyone claiming him), Hicks is killing it in AAA right now, and team expectations are still low. If he can put up an OPS of 725-750 with plus defense and positional flexibility to play all three OF slots he'll be a real asset to the franchise for years to come, regardless of what happens with Buxton, Arcia, or Rosario. Need to find out soon. If he keep hitting like this and hasn't made the roster by June 1, the team is making a significant mistake. It's ok if he stays down another week or so, but if this drags on 2-3 weeks then their either doing it wrong or there's something else going on here that they're not telling us.

Hopefully he can hold it together long enough for the Twins to deal him for something worthwhile when Santana comes back.

I think team chemistry and leadership can have a greater impact in basketball than baseball; one of the most notable things about KG's return was how much better and energetic the Wolves looked on defense, with KG calling out rotations, etc. That's an impact that doesn't show up in individual stats that's still really important. The sum becoming greater than the parts is something that is much more of a basketball thing than baseball, where player interaction and combination is lessened. (how much impact can Torii Hunter have on the infield?) That said, I'm fine with bringing in Torii as well, as long as the expectations aren't out of control. Having an experienced player-mentor for young OFs like Arcia & Hicks isn't a bad thing at all to help them through the daily struggles of being an MLB player. Someone on the field who can help them stay positioned correctly. Someone with credibility to give advice and constructive criticism. Since he should be able to still hit and contribute on the field, it can work. He'll be a marketing plus. In the end, I expect KG to have a greater effect on the on-court product of the Wolves than Torii to have on the Twins, despite Torii possibly having more left in the tank as a player. But the things KG brings to the table are things the Wolves need even more right now and the intangibles are greater in basketball than football. But it doesn't mean bringing in Torii was a bad call, especially since the price was only one year of not-unreasonable money.

I like Berrios a ton. We'll see how his secondary stuff continues to develop; if he continues to improve his change and curve he can be really really good. I agree with Seth; look for him to arrive in 2016 unless things go badly for the rotation AND he's dominating. No need to add him to the 40-man early while they're still working on getting his innings up towards 170 or so and working on his secondary pitches. I'm always a little confused by conversations about a "#1" pitcher. How are we defining a #1? It seems like a lot of the reports that place Berrios' ceiling as a #2-#3 act like a #1 pitcher is a true ace, one of the top 10 pitchers in MLB or something. That doesn't seem right to me.

I feel like May is a slight favorite to win the job, but realistically it should come down to him or Milone. If May has control issues, Meyer's are still more significant and his delivery just isn't as repeatable yet. It will be interesting to see if May has made any progress since last season.

I have zero problem with the Twins buying out his arbitration years and a year or 2 of free agency. The basic form is, Dozier gets the security of a long-term deal and the Twins get a discount over what they would have paid year by year. I think it's unlikely the Twins will have to go as high as Kipnis' deal; Dozier has never put together a season as good as Kipnis' all-star campaign and that drove a lot of that money. There's some risk in this seeing as how Dozier hasn't put together a complete consistent season yet, but when you factor the potential and the defense, he's an asset I think you want to lock down. I'd suggest the price is more likely to go up than go down if the team waits until say, the all-star break or next season to make a deal happen. If Dozier puts together back to back 5 WAR seasons he's not going to be cheap at all.

I can live with almost any of the serious options (May, Milone, Meyer, & Pelfrey) except Pelfrey. Sorry, there's no way he gets the job based on anything other than "veteran starter/stupid contract we gave him" and that's a bad play. I doubt Stauffer gets a serious look to start. May is my preference. Not only does he have nothing left to prove in AAA, he's shown enough to suggest he could be a real asset as a starter. The 5th slot should be perfect for him, as it'll let the team protect him a little and give him more space to grow. Hughes, Santana, Gibson, Nolasco, and May could be a very solid rotation, especially if you have guys like Meyer and Milone as the call-up options to hedge against injury. Not that any of the projection systems will like this pitching staff! Hopefully everyone gets the message that if you're injured to report it and not just try and "fight through it" without saying something...and the Twins medical staff gets better at treating injuries too...

agree 100%. especially because Gardy will play Butera too much (both as Pavano's personal catcher and as relief for Mauer). But even if Butera ISN'T playing a lot and is just there as late-inning relief for Mauer's knees in blowouts or as a defensive replacement for Doumit...he's still a bad choice for the roster spot because he offers NO value as a hitter off the bench. This team needs to have guys that can swing a bat on the bench, and Butera has no value as anything otehr than a defensive replacement, and that's just not enough to spend a roster spot on, especially with the twins likely to waste another roster spot on a 12th pitcher (who will throw maybe once a week)