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TheLeviathan

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Everything posted by TheLeviathan

  1. TheLeviathan
    His health risks were a huge factor for me, but I'd give up more than what the Blue Jays did in a heart-beat for him. The risk was well worth the cost IMO. The biggest mystery to me is why the Rockies seem to have wanted Reyes at all.
  2. TheLeviathan
    Yeah Berrios is a good comp for Hoffman but May is an awful comp. Its far closer to Hu. I dont get why they wanted Reyes. It seems like we could have easily beat that package.
  3. TheLeviathan
    Am I the only one underwhelmed by the return the Rockies got?
  4. TheLeviathan
    Knobby at his peak was a truly special player on a bad team. Hunter has been a pretty darn good player on a lot of good teams. Seems about the right ranking, though I'd possibly slide Knobby higher. (I think his falling out and post-career stuff has really held down his legacy)
  5. TheLeviathan
    I struggle to call him a cornerstone because of his age. I'm not in a hurry to deal him, but I think this offseason could be an important time to see what's out there.
  6. TheLeviathan
    Right, but these are things you consider when you are debating where the line for "too great" comes in. They aren't really separate.
  7. TheLeviathan
    Right, Gibson has a good chance to be reliably above average. If you deal him you're willingly agreeing to rely more on Tommy Milone and a very young starter like Berrios to avoid your rotation falling apart. Now maybe you agree to take that risk in order to upgrade another position, but it is a risk.
  8. TheLeviathan
    We're a bad road team playing tough ball clubs. /thread
  9. TheLeviathan
    I don't know what you're arguing for? Tulo or failure?
  10. TheLeviathan
    Good post earlier tobi. The myth of deadline deals and going all-in to win is one of strongest delusions in sports. It's not only ineffective, it's often counter productive in both the short and long term. Middle deals at the deadline and splash in the offseason. That's what actually works.
  11. TheLeviathan
    I don't know how you keep going off the rails here, but I never excluded his June ERA. I didn't look at monthly ERAs - I looked at monthly peripherals. I excluded April on the basis of those, not his ERA. Even with that poor ERA in June, he's still been above average - as have many of his key peripherals. The only one that isn't is K/9 but that just isn't ever going to be his style. Everything else has trended very well the last three months.
  12. TheLeviathan
    Yes, let's continue to use ERA. I'm evaluating Gibson based on consistent peripherals since May and the results those have yielded: an above average major league starter. And yes, that includes one month where his ERA wasn't sterling. I cited ERA as a stat that helps show his success, but there are others. In fact, I'd argue, many of the best pitching stats for evaluation would show that success if we omitted April. Alas, Fangraphs doesn't allow me to go just from May until now.
  13. TheLeviathan
    Except his peripherals in June were similar to May and July, his peripherals in April don't even look like the same player.
  14. TheLeviathan
    No equation was set up, please see the point for what it was, not what allows you to make a strawman. Young players have to be watched in smaller samples by the nature of being new to the league. We may be seeing the best we'll see from Gibson, but if he can maintain this it's an above average starting pitcher. That's what I see the last three months and is the most relevant for evaluating his future.
  15. TheLeviathan
    43rd in xFIP, 27th in ERA, 35th in soft contact - and all of that is with his god awful April dragging him down. Since May he's been well above average.
  16. TheLeviathan
    With any young player, isn't the most recent, consistent data the most relevant? Do we hold 2012 against Dozier or worry more about the player he is today?
  17. TheLeviathan
    1) He is currently above average by a decent margin. So this is already wrong. 2) "most pitchers are who they are" is deliberately holding something against him that wasn't within his control. It's far more relevant to analyze how he has developed since his debut.
  18. TheLeviathan
    No, you seem to be misunderstanding that I want to place Gibson at anywhere near the level of Tulowitski. Tulowitski has been and is an elite player. Gibson appears to be trending towards an above average starter. (Minus his May he's a top 30 picher in all of baseball in xFIP, ERA, and a variety of other meaningful statistics. And even with his bad May he's a in the top 50 in many of these - making him a solidly entrenched #2 starter by many measures) I just believe it's fair that if you're going to evaluate Gibson's value now and in the future that it's worthwhile to note he's been a far better pitcher the last three months than his cumulative numbers would indicate. Much like it's fair for you to point out that any trend downward by Tulo is largely just a one month blip rather than a substantive decline.
  19. TheLeviathan
    By all means use his age against him, that's a fair argument for why dealing him now may be prudent. It's just not relevant to this. It's also a fair argument to say that his May is an outlier that is significantly dragging down his yearly cumulative stats. The problem is that you're justifying the omission of Tulo's worst month based on his career history (justifiable) but refusing to acknowledge the omission of Gibson's worst month based on his continued development as a player. (also justifiable)
  20. TheLeviathan
    He can't control when he was brought up, I would imagine he (like many of us) thought he should've come up sooner. So let's stop using his age against him, that isn't what it's about. Young (read: new to the league) players grow and adapt all the time and positive steps of development should be noted and appreciated as they become consistent. Gibson, like many before him, has worked to make himself better against MLB competition and seems to have found a pretty consistent niche the last three months. Insisting on including a month that stands out as a pretty significant outlier in order to make your point seems more than a bit disingenuous.
  21. TheLeviathan
    Thing is - I don't disagree with your point about Tulo, that month appears to be an outlier that is unfairly making it look like a dip post-injury. Just like looking at the last three months of Gibson (which have been very similar in production) is a much more fair way of analyzing his performance as well. What is fair for the goose, should be fair for the gander.
  22. TheLeviathan
    I love the "Let's conveniently forget a guy's worst month" game! Do we get to play it with Gibson too?
  23. TheLeviathan
    I guess I didn't realize that in order to participate in the trade deadline one HAD to make a blockbuster involving major prospects and elite talents. Shame, figured there might be some competent, helpful players out there that could also be acquired. Oh well......
  24. TheLeviathan
    It's not that it's gospel, just pointing out that it's unlikely they will turn the job over to him full-time given their choices this season. They just seem, for whatever reason, dead set against it. I personally think it's a bit bizarre.
  25. TheLeviathan
    I guess I'm wondering on your basis for that? The trend curves aren't perfect and not everyone will decline. Tulo might well be a productive offensive and defensive player for the rest of his contract, but the aging curves do indicate that into their 30s declining play is just part of the expectation for most players. I think, in the case of Tulo, it might have extra weight given the fragile nature of his last few seasons. Maybe those were just flukes, but to me they are heavy indicators of risk. Not enough for me to write off trading for him, but serious enough to heavily weigh on the decision.
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