kab21

They can't sign Mauer to an extension anyway so it is a moot point unless they pay 80% (yearly) of his current contract. They can offer him a new contract next offseason though. Spending money in FA is never totally wise but if you can't avoid it forever. You just have to pick the right players. Ervin/Willingham were correct choices and Nolasco/etc were terrible choices.

They don't need to bring in 3 quality starters. They need to add 1 or 2 instead of add one and subtract one. There is absolutely no way the Twins can start the season with 3 pitchers like Gibson/Mejia/? in the rotation. Start the season with 1-2 of those guys is progress though. Any plan that necessitates that action needs to be redone. And you are partially creating this payroll problem. If the FO/ownership is serious about contending this year or next then they need to increase payroll instead of running this team like Metrodome Twins. And as you say the 'crunch' isn't long lived.

You addressed one need but there are many more. Gibson/Mejia/? in the 3/4/5 spots is a dreadfully awful rotation to enter the season. If the Twins are so crunched for payroll then a different plan needs to be made.

KAT looks like a 7 foot tall SF to me. I have no idea what a Teague - Butler - Wiggins - KAT - Jordan would do on offense. It is an interesting idea. I am assuming that the deal would have to be Dieng and Aldrich for Jordan. Salaries should roughly matchup and the Clippers get a good young player that the Wolves barely play anyway. Taj slides to a 6th man role and Bjelica might not get off the bench. The defense would definitely improve but I have no idea what would happen on offense. Better/Worse?

Any plans on doing an add one and subtract one scenario doesn't address anything. Add two - subtract one alright.

Moving on from Ervin is contingent on bringing in a second pitcher in addition to Darvish. This team needs to do more than add one and subtract one this offseason. If money is that tight then they will have to part with prospects for a pitcher like Cole plus Darvish (and then trade Santana). And not offer Gibson arbitration. There is a good chance that money is flushed down the toilet by the end of the season.

You said that last year too but I don't see it. Tyus is proving to be an excellent backup but I don't think he is better than either Teague or Rubio. The Wolves beat a bad team and an okay team with Tyus last week. They lost to two okay teams with him. I think they go 3-1 with Teague. I would cut Teague's minutes down to 32ish and play Tyus more than he had been playing though.

Managers say a lot of things and then things change. They might not have liked Sano DH'ing but after the RF experiment failed they DH'd him plenty except for when Plouffe was injured. A summary of where Sano played defensively in 2016 Park on the roster = RF Plouffe injured = 3B Plouffe not injured = mostly DH with 1-2 G/week at 3B

The Twins save 27M next season and they get the better prospect. And that prospect is a highly ranked pitching prospect. I am not sure what you object to but this would be a great deal and I don't know why the Braves would do it. The Twins would have to turn around and bring in two very good pitchers though (27M extra to play with) and that could prove difficult but they would have one more very highly ranked prospect to deal and this could be the missing piece of a Chris Archer trade.

Which FA starter are you targeting in 2019 that satisfies your criteria? Kershaw or bust? That is the problem with your plan imo. There are no guarantees that any top starter makes it to FA next year.

This is the key point here. I really don't see the Twins getting a substantial offer for Santana and pretty much all they would get is salary relief. That could be important but this rotation needs more than just swapping the '#1' starter. But the bigger issue is that the Twins need to add 1 if not 2 good pitchers this offseason. Adding one (better pitcher) and subtracting one good pitcher doesn't really help. I am not against trading Santana if there is a nice prospect or two but I think any Ervin trade would essentially be a salary dump for a minor prospect (top 100-ish). Other GM's know that he is 35 (next month) with poor SABR stats.

50 games a year doesn't equal 4/5 games. I have doubts about his hitting ability also but I think it is unlikely that he is DH'ing much after 2-3 years so I am willing to put up with the experiment for a year or two if that means landing him for 6 cost controlled seasons.

So you think that Sano would have played RF in 2015 if Hunter wasn't on the team? He would have DH'd if the spot was open both of the seasons. In 2015 DH was open. In 2016 it wasn't.

$20M signs a big FA for one season. Ohtani is under team control for 6 seasons that includes 3 arb controlled seasons. Do you have any sources of this entitlement? Ohtani is arguably the best Japanese pitcher (due to his younger age and high performance) and probably the 2nd best player (behind Ichiro) to ever come to the majors. I am not sure what you expect him to do that is different than he is doing. I will disagree with the other poster above about Seattle. It would be a very good choice but don't they only have 500K in cap room. I understand that he is forgoing a lot of money coming over this season but that is a pretty significant gap between what a few other teams can offer.

The Twins opening day/month lineup was Plouffe at 3B and Park at DH. Combined those moves required Sano to be in RF. No ifs, ands or buts. Sano played 69/80 games in 2015 as DH or PH. The same would have happened the following year.

Dozier and Santana aren't and they are in your trade. The Pirates will want all players like the first four that you named and likely a headliner top prospect. The last 4 are eligible for the Rule V draft. No value. Zero Yes, they will want money relief but they primary focus will be the rebuilding part. And that means prospects instead of 1 year rentals. And if money relief is the focus of their trade then they will want COMPLETE relief instead of partial relief taking back contracts. The thing that you and everyone needs to do when making trades is 'would I do this if I was running the other team?' You almost certainly wouldn't trade for Dozier if you were rebuilding a team. That is a lateral move or actually a 1 step forward and 2 steps back since he is older and controlled for fewer years than the players that you are trading away.

How much do Darvish or Tanaka make in endorsements? Marketing really isn't a factor especially since he is probably just as big of a star back home regardless of where he plays.

And they had Plouffe and Sano which led to the failed experiment in RF.

I think literally nobody defends the Capps for Ramos trade. That one was considered very questionable at the time. Span for Meyer fits your description since the Twins picked up a high upside starter and the move is defensible. It was really only a bad move because the Twins traded away their other CF later in the offseason and had nobody (Hicks) left to play the position. Park was picked up for minimal money so it is hard to consider it very wrong. The issue that was mentioned at the time was the lack of positional flexibility since the Twins had a few DH/1B options and people did say that it was a tough fit.

yeah, 50 games cutoff... I am sure that he is a grown up and will understand that if he is hitting .600ish OPS that the team is better off with Grossman and his .750 OPS.

I think I would try to sign Frazier to a 2 year contract first and get the benefits without having a long contract and having to give up something. TB won't be able to give a player like Longoria away for free for the same reasons the Twins couldn't have done the same with Mauer. But getting a good 3B is a moderately interesting idea this offseason with the uncertainty surrounding Sano.

But is it really a bidding war when the amount is low? You talk about being suspicious based on winning a bidding war but every free agent is a bidding war. The reason to have had modest expectations for Park was that they paid backup level money for Park. They essentially got what they paid for.

The Twins 'outbid' the entire MLB and paid backup level money for Park. At that price point it was a chance worth taking.

Yes, I tell him that he can expect to play 50 games at DH with additional pinch hitting time. He can play more if he can outhit Robbie Grossman.

I wasn't sure how serious his injury was but that also means that the Twins probably wouldn't target him. The point remains that the Dodgers are parting with a young and very good starter for one year of Dozier.