cHawk

I was referring to much more in-game management. I don’t believe the bullpen is constructed as badly as it has looked. Falvine gets 30% of the blame. Rocco gets 60%. The relievers themselves get 10% for just not executing.

Did the Twins pull Michael Pineda one inning too soon? Yeah, no sh!t. You’d think Rocco would’ve learned from pulling Berrios in the playoffs last year. Apparently not. Was Robles the right call to start the eighth? Yeah, he’s a high leverage guy, based on his stuff (IDGAS about his 10.00 ERA last year). I would’ve let Pineda go one more and brought him out in the 9th if I were Rocco in that situation. Many are criticizing the decision to bring him out in the 8th but that is purely results-based criticism. Remember that Rocco can’t see the future. If you were going to the pen, Robles or Rogers was the right call. Both throw hard. Robles has been good in that spot so far this year. Guess who wasn’t the right call for the 9th? The guy who has been shellacked consistently (Colome). ALL of his outings (except Game 2 against Milwaukee) have been cringe-worthy. And it’s no fluke. His stuff is not good. He throws 89 MPH cutters over the plate. That’s pretty much it. He’s a guy who should be pitching in garbage time. Not meaningful time. Does a higher power hate the Minnesota Twins? They’ve lost 18 straight playoff games. That takes some serious commitment. That or some really bad luck. Who’s to blame for this? Management. Colome keeps going out there in the 9th. Why? IDK. Rogers, Duffey, Robles, and Alcala should be the closers (If they’re going for multi-closer thing, which is fine). They all throw hard. Thielbar is fine as a setup guy (NOT as a guy to stop the bleeding). Outside of those five, who do we have? Colome sucks as I already said. Brandon Waddell has not looked good. Dobnak is fools gold, always has been. Anderson? We haven’t seen him in the majors yet. Maybe he could be good? IDK.

Garver against lefties and Jeffers against righties hasn’t worked...switch it up. The catching platoon has been hot garbage offensively thus far (and not good defensively either, still pissed about Jeffers dropping that foul tip). Does Jeffers succeed vs. lefties? You might as well try, it’s not like it would hurt anything if you didn’t.

Let’s play a game. In 4.2 IP so far (SSS, but it isn’t nothing), Robles has given up one walk and one single. No ER. If you were Rocco and you were looking for which reliever to go to, and you think Robles, which would you consider more important: This year’s success (when you have data) or last year’s (with a different ball club in SoCal) failure? It’s also worth mentioning that relievers are dime a dozen. They can be power arms in one place and flaming hot trash elsewhere. When looking at relievers on the market, we don’t just look at ERA. Pitchers, as you know, are far more fixable than hitters. We look at the pitcher’s stuff. This isn’t like Sergio Romo. It was obvious what he was when we got him - a one pitch junkballer. Robles throws fastballs that average 95 MPH. Romo throws sliders that average 75 MPH. Big difference. That being said, Robles does have control issues. So a reliever with a high-velo fastball with control issues...sounds familiar (Trevor May). Robles had the tools, different coaching will make a difference in results.

Robles has had one bad outing. One. Out of six.

A win is a win. Hopefully this jump starts the team. They could actually score a run past the 6th. Granted, against 8.10 ERA Ottavino (speaking of, what happened to him, wwasn't he one of the best relievers in baseball a couple years ago?). BUT...Rocco almost cost us this one. There was no reason to pull Pineda there. None. He was at 80 pitches. He could've gone out for at least the 8th. I can't blame him for putting Robles out there, he's been one of our best relievers so far. He had a bad day and so did Rogers. (Starting to wonder if Rogers is a choking hazard). Colome out in the 9th was a disaster waiting to happen, but we got through it. But holy crap, the pen in general has been awful. Can it fix itself? Maybe. Pitchers are fixable. Moreso than hitters.

I know everyone's talking about the BP. And it is a problem, don't get me wrong. But everything else has been awful the last few games. No offense or clutch hitting? Starters getting knocked out early, and the BP has been a disgrace. I don't believe the BP is constructed as badly as it looked. It's been fueled by terrible defense when it matters. But Falvine did not do a good job addressing it this offseason. What is wrong with Duffey? Same with Stashak? Haven't those guys been solid for us the past few years? Holy cow. The offense. It's painful to watch. No team loads up the bases and hits into DPs more. The Red Sox pitching is so bad the ORIOLES crushed it. And it's kept us to 5 runs in 3 games? What?? IDK about the SP. It's been fine. Yeah, Berrios had an ugly start today. But that happens. It's early. Let's keep this civil. Let's not attack anyone. But this team better right the ship. We were supposed to be pushing for a WS and, if the ship isn't righted, we could be competing for a top draft pick.

My point is not “walks are better than singles.” Because of course they’re not. It’s “walks are better than balls in play” and for that reason. Because you won’t reach every time you put a ball in play. And I was wrong, BA isn’t useless. But I’d take OBP, wRC+, and wOBA any day over BA.

I won’t. 20 walks is better than 20 balls in play and batting .300. 20 balls in play, .300 AVG: 6 times on out of 20 20 walks: 20 times on out of 20 When a guy gets to first, with no outs: He scores 85% of the time with one out: He scores 50% of the time with two outs: He scores 25% of the time That averages out to about 50%. So, therefore: 10 runs on 20 Walks 3 runs on 20 BIP That says it all.

Ok, not xFIP. ERA then. Also, batting average is 100% accurate, yes. It’s just not meaningful. Likewise, SP Wins/Losses are not meaningful either. I will correct myself, Blown Saves are better than SP Losses, because they have a parameter for the magnitude of the situation. But Tom makes a good point, the reason the BP has looked like one of the worst BPs in history is because they’ve had NO room for error. They’re not going to be perfect every night. And the nights where they’re NOT perfect we feel like it’s performing badly because they’ve had zero margin for error. In the Detroit loss, one of the Seattle losses, and yesterday.

Do tell how Grossman has better expanded stats than Arenado. There’s such a thing as a sound stat (wRC+, xFIP) and an unsound one (BA, Pitcher W/L). A sound stat is one that allows you to accurately judge a player, by baking in the meaningful data. An unsound stat is one that is vague, and does NOT give an accurate judgement of a player, by leaving many factors unaccounted for. They have 2 Blown Saves on the season. Both by the same guy. He is not a closer. That’s on the manager for continuing to keep him in that role. That literally means they came into the game and gave up the lead - which is the only thing you don't want your relievers to do! BA literally means “how many hits you get as a ratio to how many at bats you have.” Which is what you want your hitters to do. And it should be thrown out the window. Because, according to BA, a weak dribbler that you barely beat out is the same as a 500 ft HR. It also neglects walks. That’s why Eddie looked better than he actually was.

Give the young guys (Waddell for example) a chance and not..Colome. The Twins would be happy they did.

Wins and Losses as a team get you into the playoffs. Wins and Losses for pitchers don’t. For example: Gerrit Cole on the Yankees or Gerrit Cole on the Indians. Where does he win more games? Obviously the Yankees, because the Yankees have a thing called an offense. Does that make him a more skilled pitcher? No. Wins or Losses don’t make a pitcher effective, or measure the effectiveness of a pitcher. Stats like ERA do. It helps you identify if it’s the actual problem or not.

Actually?

Do you have a better stat where they rank below 15th? EDIT: And please don't say blown saves. That's the SP W/L equivilant for relievers

There’s a solution to every problem.

Exactly. WPA is a completely garbage stat. Although averaging 12 runs given up in the 9th Inning (slightly less than one earned run per ninth inning) is a problem but that’s due to a pair of three run implosions.

This isn’t out of the question. But they’re .500 without two of their best hitters in the lineup. Also the bullpen has a 2.54 ERA so far. I’m not saying the pen is good but everyone here is letting the hitters get off scot free for scoring 0 runs in the 9th or 10th Inning.

I think you’re worrying too much about our regular season record. I thought the regular season didn’t matter? There are 152 games left.

I think it’s gonna be more tough to win with this manager.

In context, it's expected for at least one run to score with a runner on 2B with no out.

Not necessarily with the first one. Of the 53 runs they’ve scored, only 22 of them have come via HR. The second one is spot on but not the first one. If you look at last year, many games they would only score on HRs. It’s looked a bit different thus far.

A runner on 2nd with no out is a 1.068 run expectancy. I’d say it’s more the on the hitters for not scoring 3/3 times in that scenario.

“Alex Colome is a problem” He shouldn’t be the closer. Put him on in the 6th or maybe the 7th. Robles or Rogers or Duffey should be the closers. Except no Colome tomorrow please...he needs a day or two off. What is Wes doing with Colome? All of the sudden he looks like absolute @$$. I am concerned about the pen but I’m not going to freak out. In 2019, our bullpen looked like this at the beginning, and it pulled itself together. But for now, adjustments need to be made. Colome should not be the closer. Alcala or Rogers or Robles should.

I have a joke. The front office.