When it comes to a 40 year old, what he did 5, 4 and 3 years ago really doesn't mean a whole lot. If he was 35, it makes more sense. Most guys just don't bounce back at 40, counting on him bucking the trend and bouncing back is a recipe for failure IMO. On the flip side his BABIP was actually LUCKY last year, which is why his FIP is over 5.00. His pull percentage was up quite a bit as well, indicating that his "stuff" is going away, which of course isn't a surprise when dealing with a pitcher as old as he.