LastOnePicked

The fact that they weren't aggressive right off the bat in addressing this club's glaring needs in the starting rotation is unforgivable. They've even implied that they were "surprised" by the speed of the offseason market. Really?! I laugh out loud when I read quotes like this: "I've approached each of the last three offseasons, really even going back after '17, with an approach: 'How do we find a way to get better now and in the future?'" - Um, isn't that literally the general description of your job? And the job/goal of every single FO in MLB? Plenty of high-minded words from these two that mean absolutely nothing. If the offense clicks in '22, if Buxton is an MVP, and if it's the pitching that sinks this club, articles like this should get plenty of credit for foresight. This was likely the wrong offseason for wait-and-see moves.

Well, the rationalizations for doing nothing about the rotation before the lockout are in full swing now. And it's not that you're wrong, Nick, it's just that we again seem to be rushing right in to make excuses for this organization. Excuses they aren't even making - they've said next-to-nothing to the fans about their seemingly-changed plans for 2022. Though, as you point out, they might never have been planning to sign a top FA starter. I get the sense that lots of teams have pitching prospects like the Twins. Our pitching prospects are not particularly exceptional, and we currently have a mid-tier farm system, and most have been seriously hurt. Like you, I have *hope" that they'll pan out, but there are no guarantees that even one of them will become an impact starter. And this organization needs an impact starter - multiple impact starters. There was nothing wrong with signing a few reliable, established veterans, even if 2022 seems lost. They could have served as mentors for younger pitchers, OR they could possibly be traded at the deadline if they overperform and the younger pitchers prove to be ready. This line from your article sums up this sad attitude that we seem to have as Twins fans: "Maybe even win some games." A year after having WS aspirations, our fan expectations are so embarrassingly low now that we're crossing our fingers hoping that *maybe* some of our hurt pitching prospects might debut next year and win a few games. Good gosh. But, if you're trying to find or make some sense of reason in all this, your article does seem to get there.

Hard to understand all the complexities at work here. Even though it seems like all sides (players, owners and fans) want increased competition in the league, there appear to be some big differences in terms of how to get there. I can say that, for all the talk of "league parity," it sure seems like the high-profile teams experience very short playoff droughts, and the lower profile teams experience much longer playoff droughts. NY, CA and Chicago teams routinely go on spending sprees for FAs, all while revamping their state-of-the-art analytics and development facilities for drafting and developing talent. What choice do the lower-tier teams have but to cut payroll, wait for top draft picks to develop and hope that bargain FA contracts pan out? Additional revenue sharing and salary caps and floors seem pretty important to these aims. But there may be some issues or components I'm missing.

The starkness of this hits pretty hard. No matter who they realistically slot into that #1 spot at this point, that's not a rotation that can compete for anything but an awfully high draft pick for the team the following year. Love that they extended Buxton, but I don't see the urgency here to get the most out of his prime.

Maybe not terrible. Maybe not great. But this is not a "retooling" move, FO. If you're still serious about competing in 2022, get back on those phones, fellas.

I agree. Those injuries were likely not predictive. But I do have a strange superstitious side, and I would LOVE to see the Twins overhaul their logo and jersey this year. Give Buxton a fresh start. Immediately put away the old associations of his many injuries as a Twin. I know, it's dumb. And yet, the human mind is a goofy thing.

I nominate Cody as the FO's official bargain shopper. Seriously, these were well-researched and well-reasoned suggestions. If we're going to continue to be a team that relies on finding diamonds in the rough, we better at least be good at it.

I've said "unreal" about the Twins over and over again over the last few years. Always in a negative way. This time, it's in a very positive way. It's a contract that won't kill the team payroll-wise if he never really is healthy. It won't even really hurt if he maxxes out incentives. Even if the worst-case scenarios happen, I will always be happy that a man with resilience + character like Byron Buxton got paid by the Twins. I love this, Thank you, FO. Solid move. Now go get a few great starters and let's win this whole frickin' thing.

Ted, I really appreciate these updates. Thanks for aggregating and summarizing the need-to-know stuff on the CBA. I hope it all goes as smoothly as possible.

I love Buxton as a Twin. The injuries have been heartbreaking, but the good times have been magical. But I do wonder if he wants to remain here, and I wouldn't blame him if the answer is a clear "no." Because the FO has let an extension drag into a potentially-troubled offseason, and because it's pretty clear he and Polanco will be the primary anchors for a rebuilding squad over the next few years, I can see why he'd want out. This isn't an aggressive FO like Chicago, and Buxton probably realizes that any extension he signs here (even if at market value) will further put him under scrutiny the way Mauer's contract did for him. It wasn't fair that Mauer had to shoulder that burden of being a contract scapegoat while dealing with injuries, and I'm sure Buxton saw a little bit of that play out as he was headed up to the big-league club. I was thinking the other day how Cruz really seemed to take the heat off of guys like Buxton. You need a core of 2-3 big personalities to set the tone for a contender. You need a FO who doesn't just sign just one marquee homegrown player to a mega contract and surround him with past-their-prime veterans and ineffective rookies. Buxton should be joining an up-and-coming team who see him as one important piece to a title run, not as a centerpiece. Buxton probably wants/needs to join a winner at this point. And at this point, the Twins are not a winner in any sense of the word. It will be heartbreaking to lose him, but it's probably inevitable at this point.

Sure. 1) It's not a "minor" or unrelated note - Cave's signing directly impacted the number of slots available to protect prospects. 2) I believe that Severino and Palacios had a real shot at impacting this team, and I'll be sad to see them lost if they are selected.

Since the inclusion of Cave led in large part to the Wade and Baddoo blunders, you'd expect a FO to learn from these kind of mistakes. Seems they haven't. Seems they don't. And with a 2022 MLB contract? No other team in MLB would have done this - there is NO competition for Cave's services at this point. Twins would have lost nothing by waiting and offering him an MiLB deal later, if he was somehow needed. Just yuck.

My thought is this: teams know that this FO has painted themselves in a corner. Anyone expecting a "big haul" for Buxton is probably fooling themselves. And I like Joe Ryan, but Joe Ryan ain't Nolan Ryan. Joe Ryan will likely max out as a #3 starter at the very best in his career. A Joe Ryan-type for Byron Buxton trade is a disgustingly huge steal for some other team.

Excellent response. The Twins will never see another player with the raw potential and potential impact of Byron Buxton. Never. Byron Buxton isn't a cog - he's a game-changing HOF-caliber player. And the chance to sign him for his prime years in a deal that certainly wouldn't break the bank? What a gift! Yes, there's risk. Injury history has been nothing short of tragic. Could all add up and knock him out of the game. Or, he could be resilient as heck, tough as nails, and just on the cusp of making his mark permanently on the game. Who on Earth wouldn't want to invest in that?? Since the 2000s began, teams like the Twins NEVER get a chance at having these kinds of players in their prime. This is the textbook definition of moderate risk and high reward ceiling, As some poster noted, you won't get anything better for him in trade than a Larnach or maybe a Martin. Guys we already have. Guys who might play MLB well, but guys you'll never tell your kids about years after they're gone.

"There’s no denying that this front office has done a great job establishing a strong culture and organizational structure." Um, can I deny this? Great article, but I would actually like to question this assertion. Basically, have they? What does "strong culture" mean here? Their teams aren't particularly tough, they don't play fundamental baseball, young players don't play particularly well here when they start and homegrown players now don't seem to want to sign here. Plus, they don't evaluate talent well, and have lost a ton of value in prospects for absolutely zero return. I see this as on often-cited reason why we're supposed to be patient with their moves, but I do not see it. What about this organizational structure is so strong?

My thoughts exactly. This FO just doesn't seem to get that very promising young players sometimes are far more ready for the show than their analysis suggests. I expect they won't protect him, and he'll be lost.

Thoughtful analysis ... of a tragedy in the making. Man, this has been an ugly day in Twins Territory. Wasn't this offseason supposed to help us forget the agony of 2021? Look, I don't like this FO, and I don't trust this FO. But this explanation is plausible: "Buxton has no interest in signing an extension in Minnesota." If it is, then the least this FO can do is really dig in about why. Is it personal preference, or is it that Buxton felt disrespected or slighted here? If so, the organizational norms or practices that led to his discontent have to change. Immediately. Period. And if he is traded, then they have to drop the ridiculous notion that they're "retooling." Admit the folly, ask the fans' forgiveness for a lost window of opportunity, lay out an organizational plan and a timeline and ask the fans to join in on a rebuilding journey. They can even talk big and claim that, with a retooled development staff, it'll be the shortest rebuild in team history. But come clean. Be honest. Treat fans like intelligent adults. Most of us are ... myself excluded.

It's an understanding, thoughtful defense. To me, the mistakes are just too darn numerous and too darn costly, but I understand your thoughts here. I'm really hoping they somehow prove worthy of your praise and loyalty. Fans like you deserve to be rewarded.

It also might be great if people asked themselves if the Twins are really a low-revenue team. At least, according to the data I could find, it looks like they're a mid-revenue team. Wasn't that the whole point of a subsidized new stadium just a decade ago? So it isn't ignorant *at all* to assume that if the Twins were serious about winning they would pursue a mix of lower-cost, high-impact prospect development strategies (like the Rays) as well as a few higher-cost signings of all-star quality players (like the Yankees). Particularly homegrown, fan-favorite players who play at a position of the team's greatest need. That's not "bitching" ... that's wanting the team to assert some intent to win. But I'm very much on board with the suggestion to search for a new PBO and GM. Spot on.

Okay, Doc, but isn't it funny how the Twins don't end up "looking good" on most moves they make under this FO? At some point, we may have to realize that it's more than just bad luck or bad looks.

When the Twins can demonstrate either the ongoing MiLB developmental successes of the A's or Rays OR those team's competitiveness on the field and consistent postseason runs, then maybe these comparisons will ring a little more fair. The Rays are now perennial winners. The As hang in there year after year in surprising ways. The Twins fall short of expectations repeatedly.

Exactly this. 1000% this. We seem to have been fed a PR line since the trade deadline, and any remaining trust is either broken or near the breaking point.

This point seems inescapable to me: the Twins are not a serious MLB team. They are not serious about keeping top talent, and not serious about winning a WS title. They are muddling through year after year ... and the few fans that remain are mostly okay with it.

I strayed too far from Nick's post, and this comment brought me back. "Patience reaps rewards" is one of Nick's takeaways, and I agree. Folks keep mentioning the prospects at the upper levels, but we seem to be forgetting that, just like a once-great FA pitcher in surgery recovery, prospects usually aren't very good in their first few years. In fact, they're often terribly disappointing. We just don't have a solid core that few good new parts can be plugged into. We're a last place team in weak division with holes all over the place, Whatever the FO does this offseason, the rewards probably aren't going to materialize in 2022.

Completely agree, and I look forward to yours and others thoughts as moves (hopefully) get made. You brought up another good point, which is that this FO might view "retool" differently than I do. They might view "retool" as just a larger changeover in parts on the MLB-ready roster. I guess I viewed a "retool" as putting in a few new strong pieces to an already-successful and already-running machine. But, as we saw last year, this machine ain't working anymore. Whatever the Twins are now, they aren't contenders in a more competitive AL Central. 2021 proved that, and they already got worse for 2022 before the season even ended (losing Cruz, Berrios and Maeda). If the team were a car that we intended to win us a race, most mechanics would probably advise us to get real, scrap it and salvage the few good pieces we could. Which is probably why I favor a rebuild, especially if they whiff on a Buxton extension. At that point, it would be clear to me that they won't be willing or able to afford enough quality, established MLB parts to get this organization to be first over the finish line again anytime soon.