LastOnePicked

True, but when Rocco's Twins can play a postseason series the way Gardy's Twins did against the A's in 2002, then I'm inclined to give him more slack. And at least Gardy's teams claimed a few postseason victories from the Yankees - and in NYC, no less. Again, I wanted Gardy gone even a year before he was fired. I'm just saying that Rocco's teams haven't even hit Gardy's low level of postseason success. In fact, they're not even remotely close.

I'm confused. Why would we be spending this kind of money on an aging starter who just had multiple injuries, whose fastball is down to a career-low 90.9 mph, and whose strikeout rate was 5% below league average? MLB Trade Rumors also points out that he allowed "more hard contact than ever before, both in terms of average exit velocity (91.2 mph) and hard-hit rate (46.1 percent)." If we're really going to compete in 2022, we need FA starters who are A LOT better than Pineda. If we're not going to compete in 2022, then it's time to see what the prospects can do. I don't see a roster spot for Pineda either way. The article says that Baldelli considers him a "pillar" in the clubhouse, but after a dismal 2021, I can't see a reason not to build a new clubhouse culture.

Baldelli's work is hard for me to assess from where I sit as a fan. On one hand, he always seems respectful and talks in supportive ways of his players in postgame conferences. By all accounts, he seems like a decent and sharp guy, and I have to admit that I genuinely like what I see of him as a person. But I do wonder why he only started to emphasize fundamentals drills after Cruz was traded. Did he defer to the established veterans too often? Did he let them set the agenda and tone? Is he too afraid to rock the boat or to take the reins? Morneau's Twins HOF induction speech included a few comments made about Ron Gardenhire that I thought might be vague critiques of Baldelli. He talked about the importance of Gardy pulling him aside as a young player and telling him that much more was expected of him, that he needed to be more professional and accountable to his teammates and to the fans. He then highlighted the way Gardy would show emotion on the field in order to relieve the tension his players faced: "I have a vivid memory off you tossing your hat up in the air, kicking dirt on home plate, because you always had our back." Can anyone imagine Baldelli doing this? Do I want Gardy back? Nope - there were facets of the modern game that Gardy couldn't incorporate. But do I think that some of the things Gardy did had an impact on the emotional component of the game. And however .500-ish the team may have played after this year's trade deadline, there was no pressure on them whatsoever. When the pressure is on a Baldelli team, they simply do not play well at all. They choke. They choked at the end of 2019 when something was expected. They choked again down the stretch in 2020 and also against Houston. And when the team was expected to come back strong at the start of 2021, they fell flat on their faces. I'm not upset that he'll be back, but I'm hoping that he's learning. And quickly. I'd give him a D+ in 2021 ... and tell him that much more is expected of him as the skipper.

No, the key September moment was the 6-5 loss to the Yankees on the 13th. Perfectly encapsulated that no matter how surprisingly bad 2021 was, some things never change. And, fittingly, our dismal play against the Yankees is just the buffer they needed to win a WC playoff spot.

Very different situations, yes. But similar theme: this organization drafts and acquires talent, that talent struggles here and blossoms elsewhere (sometimes spectacularly so) ... and the Twins end up with very little, if anything, to show for it. When you feed WAR to league opponents, you kill your organization's chances to win. I disagree with the downplaying of the severity of the Ortiz mistake, though. Yes, the Twins were competitive after losing him, but they never had the "oomph" to get deep into the playoffs. Ortiz provided that "oomph" to Boston ... and likely could have done so here. I sometimes wonder why I hear "Well, (Player X) would never have had that great year/career in Minnesota" so often without the question Why? Why aren't we having that impact here? We might be losing Buxton this offseason. It wouldn't be an Ortiz mistake (I assume there would be some kind of trade return), but it would be very hard to watch him play 140+ games and lead another team to an LCS or WS. I'm tired of wondering "what might have been" with this team.

I greatly appreciate all your work on these recaps, Nick. Excellent write-ups. Well done. Yes, let's hope they're more fun to write in 2022.

F. The gaps in this team were clear after the terrible finish to 2020 and the FO made those gaps considerably worse. Instead of bolstering the starting staff, the bullpen and SS, they waited out the offseason for cheap free agents. And those they selected were historically bad - and then they stuck with them for far too long. They completely misevaluated young internal talent, and through trades and Rule 5 losses have now put the organization in a bullpen, starting rotation and OF talent deficit relative to what they lost. They bungled contract extension talks with Buxton, using a trade deadline ultimatum that seems to have backfired. The bottom line is this: they inherited a team on the cusp of postseason success. They now oversee a team with no established starting rotation, a team that will draft 8th overall in 2022, and with a farm system that is nothing to write home about (ranked 15th by MLB.com, even with the trade deadline additions). And we may have just seen Buxton's last game in a Twins uniform. It's a big offseason for them, and I'm always hoping for redemption, but I can't even understand any grade for this FO over a D-.

Thank you for your work this season, Nash. Excellent work here and on the Locked On Twins podcast. You made a bad season almost bearable.

He is a HALL OF FAME caliber player. If ever the Twins were going to go all in on some big $$$ for one of their own, it should be for Buxton. Great attitude. Great approach to the game. Incredible grit and talent. It's possible that the worst of his injury experience is behind him now. And even if it's not, Jim Pohlad can afford this risk. I fear that this FO screwed up the contract extension negotiations with the highly-publicized "leak" that Buxton needed to accept their pre-deadline offer or be traded. If that leak is accurate, it represents a disgusting way to do business - particularly if Falvey/Levine authorized the leak in order to get some kind of leverage over Buxton. Just a reminder to folks who think trading Buxton will somehow improve the team: this FO has not shown any ability to trade for prospects particularly well OR to assess prospects once they've been in the system. Seems very likely that if traded, Buxton could be lost for next-to-nothing. If Buxton isn't re-signed, I'm not returning to Target Field for the foreseeable future. No family recreational $ for the Twins. I hope others feel the same way. Yes, keeping Buxton is costly, but it should be even costlier to let one of the great ones get away.

Just the opposite. Avoid it - and every Twins revenue stream - like the plague.

I like your optimism, but that price would make any GM hang up the phone, wouldn't it? I mean, I think virtually every other team already has a prospect like Larnach - corner OF big bat potential, with not-so-good first-year MLB results. He could be thrown in as a part of package, sure, but I'd be surprised if any other GM even so much as casually checks in on his availability in an offseason trade call. I like him, but the young man has a lot left to prove, and the Twins recently gave away for nothing two young OFs who are far, far better all-around players. No big swaps needed - all a GM has to do is wait to snatch up our unprotected talent.

Agreed. Yes, Buxton has been and will likely be injury-prone. This is also the only reason they can even possibly afford an extension. If this FO can't get this done over the offseason, I hope this will be the last straw for the fanbase.

For the foreseeable future, the Twins won't be able to win a weak AL Central division and then be totally unprepared for competition in the playoffs. That's a good thing. If they win another division title over the next five years, they'll have to earn it. 2022 will be interesting. This FO has stated their desire to retool and compete next year. One of two realities will become pretty clear by June: they were right, and it'll be fun to watch new free agents, rookies and veterans from 2019-20 get fired up for competitive baseball again OR they are unable to field a team that can keep up, and will be buried in the division pretty early on. I'm betting that they won't sniff an AL Central pennant chase for years. I don't think this FO has what it takes to retool, and they've given away too much talent that could have played a big role here in 2022-25. But I'm hoping I'm wrong.

I think you're probably right about Baldelli here, though I would have loved to see Gordon get more chances at SS. He seems to have surprised the team with his promotion, grit and play this year - he may have a few surprises left. But you're wrong about calming down. Twins fans watched our young talent (Gil, Ynoa, Baddoo, Wade) bloom elsewhere in 2021 - we needed a young hero here, and Gordon's doing what he can to deliver.

Good post, but I politely disagree. The way this FO evaluates talent, the "one of our 10 good pitching prospects" that they give up will become far better than anything they get back in such a trade. I would welcome a Kepler trade, and I always thought he'd make a good Yankee. But up-and-coming contenders looking for an offseason trade don't typically need the kind of guys we'd have to offer. With the exception of a good catcher.

Thoughtful analysis - I appreciate all you put into this. Would be fascinating to compare this with our market and division competitors. It seems to me that the large number of times we see "Aggressive" or "Reach" here is an indication that this FO thinks they are smarter than the average MLB bear. Though the results so far just don't back this up at all They don't draft well, and that's a MAJOR part of the talent pipeline for a mid-market team. They also bleed talent in Rule 5, they don't sign FAs well and their trades are a mixed bag at best (sellers: OK, buyers: terrible). Can someone please remind me why so many on TwinsDaily are eager to keep this duo at the helm?

This is a really good take. I wanted to say that Kepler was my bounce-back pick, but he had a terrible Spring Training and acted like he was a star who was just taking the time there to tinker around. Instead, his season was pretty much a long extension of his spring. He doesn't seem curious enough to make adjustments, and established MLB pitchers have completely figured him out. Here's hoping I'm wrong. With Morneau's support as a mentor, I'm hoping Larnach bounces back in a big way in 2022.

"Unfortunately, the Twins lost two players who have been impactful for their new organizations. They were lucky not to lose Jose Miranda or Jovani Moran too. However, they did well in recognizing the need to protect Bailey Ober." Going 1-for-5 wouldn't typically keep a player in the majors, so not sure why it would keep an executive in a major league FO. Good article, but it certainly dredges up some 2021 pain ... and highlights my deep skepticism over whether these guys should be making these evaluations for our Twins moving forward.

What role did Cave play in those titles that a replacement-level free agent, or LaMonte Wade even as a rookie, couldn't have provided? It's just so unwise to trade a promising pitching prospect for a 4th outfielder.

"All of that said, if there is such a thing as karma -- and I believe that there is -- the negative attitude of fans may be having some effect." Gee, way to blame the victim, buddy. Just to be clear, these "negative fans" have been shelling out tax dollars and hard-earned recreational bucks to support these teams and house them in state-of-the-art facilities. All this despite a total drought of championships. I think it's more likely exactly the opposite. Minnesota sports fans tolerate failure in ways other fanbases don't, which may mean that FOs and managers/coaches don't feel any great pressure to produce results here. Midwestern culture typically requires one to be even-keeled and humble about expectations. That could be playing a role here, too.

This is the best sentence about this FO I've yet seen written. Being generally sharp but unsuccessful (or even unlucky) isn't enough to keep these kinds of jobs, in my opinion.

The Hicks and Cave trades are good examples of the differences between a top-tier and second-tier MLB club. In each case, the Yankees assessed areas of organizational strength and used surplus prospects to acquire high-upside players who were sold low. Pretty clear how both of these turned out for the Twins, despite different FO staff at the helm. One wonders why Falvey and Levine can't do the same with Rooker, Jeffers or Larnach, or couldn't have done so with Wade or Baddoo. But it's these kinds of moves that separate the best from the also-rans.

Thank you. And yes, we've already had three major Twins Daily posts about how the FO deserves more slack and patience, which I find a little bit funny. To be fair, I also find it fairly laudable and noble. There is something to trying to see the best in others and hoping that something good will come out of something bad. But I do wonder when this seemingly-endless patience for failure is gong to run out around here. And I do kinda wonder if the heat that Yankees fans put on their FO doesn't at least sharpen their moves a bit and keep the team generally competitive. We often perform according to the expectations others have for us.

Based on the way folks often talk about Sano, he could make my top 3. He's not at all the player once hoped for but he has still put together a season with some decent moments. Thielbar #1. Another gutsy season from a guy who was retired. Heck, I even think Polanco is underrated. We're witnessing Twins historic greatness (for a contract steal) and lots of folks don't seem all that impressed.

In agree. Two truths are at play here: 1) pitchers should not have their livelihoods impacted by human error. Even the best umpires get 5-10% of ball/strike calls wrong. Unacceptable. Baseball is a game of inches (or less), and precision tools are needed. It makes sense that Duffey is angry. 2) for over two decades, the Twins have played with a loser's mentality. It's bigger than Rocco and the current staff. When the pressure is on, the team folds. 0-18 in the playoffs, and a .205 winning percentage in Yankee Stadium is the outcome. They're not a big-boy team, and they need to figure THIS out as they retool the rotation. It seems like part of this is that we fans just don't demand that this change. We accept and excuse poor results, time and time again. We're midwesterners - we're often humble, understanding and we don't expect all that much. And not all that much changes. This was one dumb game in a lost season, sure. But this one pretty much exemplified the fault line of this franchise.