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stringer bell

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Blog Entries posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    The outfield and DH positions on the Twins presents many options and decisions will have to be made. The opening day outfield of Hunter, Schafer, and Arcia has been revamped to Hunter, Buxton, and Rosario. DH Kennys Vargas was demoted and has returned, but his status and his future are uncertain. Hunter started slowly this year, had a fine month of May and, with most of the team, fallen off in June. Torii has provided good offense, satisfactory defense and a whole bunch of personality. He's under contract for this season and so far the team has gotten it's money's worth from the almost 40-year old. He figures to be the primary right fielder, with several DH days, going forward. Buxton, the crown jewel of the Twins' farm system, was recalled last Sunday. He has a two week audition where he can take over center field, if not he would go back to the minors. The bar isn't that high and I expect BB will do enough to prolong his stay with the Twins. If Buxton is demoted, the job goes back to Aaron Hicks, who has looked like a big leaguer, but not a future star. Eddie Rosario has had a good run with the Twins. He has played both corners and made a number of good plays in the field. He's done a nice job hitting. He still doesn't walk much, but I think he is getting better at swinging at strikes. I think Rosario is here to stay. Like the Twins best player, Brian Dozier, he can hit, run the bases, and cover a lot of ground in the outfield and he has a good, accurate arm. If Rosario is the regular in left, it moves Oswaldo Arcia to compete with Vargas for DH at-bats.
     
    Torii Hunter is on a one-year contract and will be 40 next month. Despite his good season, I can't see Hunter continuing as a player with the Twins. Going forward, the Twins have several candidates to step forward. Arcia is in AAA. In Chattanooga Adam Brett Walker and Max Kepler are having breakout seasons. A year from now, most of those guys could be in the big leagues. It is great to have such a rich farm system, but not all the guys will be able to play where they should be playing. There will be 40-man roster issues and I think the Twins will have to selectively reduce guys who may be read to contribute. That is why I can get behind a building team making a trade where they yield prospects.
     
    The Twins need to decide who to go with. I think the emphasis should be to go with younger, more athletic players who can contribute in all facets of the game. Buxton, Rosario, Dozier, and perhaps Hicks represent a bright future.
  2. stringer bell
    Short note today. Watched infield practice run by Tom Kelly. TK looked great running drills and hitting grounders. The headline is that Trevor Plouffe took grounders at first base. Went to the Twins game and exchanged tickets from the outfield handicapped seats to third deck first base side. Great exchange! Gibson looked good, hit 95 on the gun, except two pitches to Cervelli and some control issues which seemed to appear and disappear without warning.
  3. stringer bell
    My journey to Fort Myers started with a phone call at 3 in the morning, notifying me that the shuttle would arrive at the Kwik Trip at 3:50 instead of the already too early 4:20. I arrived at "Terminal 2" at 5 AM for an 8:30 flight, but couldn't go through Security because I had arranged to help my brother when he arrived.
     
    The flight was fine-left on time, arrived on time--but still felt a bit like a sardine in the can. We upgraded our rental to an SUV and headed to our hotel on Sanibel. There the real fun began. The room wasn't ready. We ate outside by the pool under an umbrella. An hour and a half later, the room still wasn't ready. After at least a half-dozen trips to the front desk, things were pretty much settled. However, we will be in a different room tomorrow, more fitting with my brother's needs.
     
    We went out, grabbed a quick bite, got some incidentals at Pubinx and returned to our room at 8:30. It was then that I realized how tried I was!
     
    Today I repack, check out the minor leaguers and take in a day game. Hopefully, I will have the energy to do something later this afternoon and this evening.
  4. stringer bell
    Ricky Nolasco signed easily the largest free agent contract for the Twins last year. While not every Twins fan was happy, the consensus was that the Twins had opened their wallets wide to get a guy that would guarantee them innings and competitive starts. In other words, while Nolasco's ceiling wasn't thought to be that high, his floor was thought to be competence or better than that.
     
    For one season, at least, the Twins were totally wrong. They didn't get middle-of-the-rotation production from him. They didn't get bottom of the rotation production. Mostly, the team got very poor performance for what is agreed to be a lot of money.
     
    What went wrong? There are some things numbers that tell the tale. First of all, Nolasco has always given up a lot of hits and hasn't been very good at stranding runners. The naysayers of the contract pointed that out from the beginning. Secondly, Nolasco had spent all his career in the National League, without a DH, thought to be easier for pitchers to put up good numbers. The last two factors may or may not be supported by numbers--Nolasco pitched with forearm tightness from spring training until he was disabled in early July. He pitched to an awful 5.90 ERA prior to going on the DL, post All-Star game yielded a more representative 4.39 ERA. Finally, Nolasco posted a 4.30 FIP, indicating that he suffered from bad luck and bad defense. In watching most of his starts, I would submit that Nolasco didn't get much help behind him and that he suffered from a bunch of bloop hits and some bad hops. I also saw a lot of hard-hit balls with quite a few reaching the seats.
     
    What does the future hold? First of all, while the first year was a disaster, Nolasco's body of work suggests he'll bounce back. He's been pretty dependable and reliable for a long time. No, he won't be traded in a salary dump and I sincerely doubt that he'll be exchanged for another "bad" contract. He'll get a chance to come back for the Twins. Secondly, I don't see him in the top of Twins rotation next year or for the duration of his contract. The Twins signed him 10 days short of his 31st birthday, it is doubtful he'll every perform better than he has in his better years ('10, '12 and '13) and not close to his best year in '08.
     
    In looking at Ricky's season, I would classify eight starts as "good" or better, six as "meh" to average, and the remainder (13) to qualify as poor. Certainly not good enough, but there were some decent outings. How much was health related? An open question. I think Nolasco has learned a bit about what he has to do to succeed and might minimize those poor starts. He showed a pretty good breaking ball, to go with an okay fastball but he needs to mix his pitches effectively. Finally, the Twins need to improve their defense. Better defensive outfielders would probably disproportionately benefit the veteran hurler.
     
    Better defense, better luck and better health will most likely lead to better results. I doubt he ever is regarded as a good signing, but I also doubt he'll be viewed as a total failure going forward. The Twins should have expected better for over $12M per year, I think they'll get closer to it for the rest of his contract. But much like Joe Mauer, people will expect more than he'll produce.
  5. stringer bell
    I saw Danny Santana play in a lot of games in Spring Training of 2014. I was impressed with his swing and his speed, but thought that he was a long way from helping the Twins in 2014. Santana showed the baseball world that he was ready when he was recalled in early May. He hit early and continued to hit throughout the season. Danny finished with a .319 batting average and an OPS of .824, both of which would have led the team easily if he had enough plate appearances. Danny made the All-Rookie team and is a cinch to be the Twins Rookie of the Year for 2014.
     
    Santana assumed the leadoff spot in the order at midseason and thrived there. He hit over .300 and stole 19 bases as the leadoff man. Santana scored 70 runs in just over 100 games and had 41 extra-base hits in 430 plate appearances. Danny's BABIP was .405, a very high number and it was an astounding .443 as a right handed hitter.
     
    Beyond his offensive contributions, Santana saved the Twins by playing center field. Danny started 62 games there after playing center only a handful of games in the low minors. His defense wasn't good at the start, but he improved and was adequate by the conclusion of the season.
     
    Two questions loom over Danny Santana for 2015 and beyond: 1) Can he sustain his outstanding offensive performance? 2) What will his defensive position be?
     
    First, I find it hard to believe that Santana will continue to hit .319 next year and beyond. He's got great speed, a nice swing and unflappable attitude, but that BABIP is pretty close to otherworldly, especially from the right side. I expect the major regression will come on his right handed hitting because his K percentage is much higher (32% vs. 19% as a LH hitter). Also, I think Danny has to learn to be a bit more selective at the plate. He chased a lot of pitches out of the zone making for short or defensive at-bats. Adding to his walk percentage would be a good idea, as well (only 4.4% in 2014).
     
    Where Santana should play going forward has been a top topic on Twins Daily. The team got solid production from last year's de facto starting shortstop, Eduardo Escobar, and did not get anything close to solid production in center field from anyone else on the current roster. Santana was a shortstop playing center field in 2014, he could be more than that if the team decides he is need in the outfield. However, he has the arm and range to be an outstanding defensive shortstop. It is a quandary that the next manager will have to deal with. Any solution will be controversial. I hope the team picks a position for Danny and leaves him there, at least for 2015.
  6. stringer bell
    While this isn't "My Dinner with Andre" or "Tuesdays with Morrie", I did have dinner with someone on a Tuesday. During Monday's game thread our very own "scene setter" and moderator Riverbrian noted that he was in Rochester. I work in that fair city and live just over 20 miles away. I contacted Brian when he asked about bakeries, and we agreed to meet for beers and dinner while watching the middle game of the Twins-Indians series.
     
    I really didn't know what to expect. I knew that RB was in town on business (too many people visit Rochester because they or their loved ones are sick) and I knew his approximate age. From his posts, I knew he had a wry sense of humor and quite a bit of knowledge about "our Twins".
     
    First, the surprises (to me). RB is a real baseball fan and really knows the game, but he manages to not be dragged down much when the team loses or makes inexplicable moves. The Alfred E. Neuman moniker is fitting, in that respect. Secondly, I found out why RB didn't participate much in WAR and defensive metric discussions--because he feels those stats in particular are flawed too much to tell us anything about the players in question (I agree!).
     
    We discussed several topics--careers, politics, religion, floods, families and on and on and I can say that I was never bored while discussing these matters. On some items I could have said the same words, on others it was nice to hear a different perspective. In general, it is nice at my age and this point in my life to meet someone new.
     
    Of course, since we are both members of TD, I knew we had a shared obsess.....er deep interest in the same thing--Twins baseball. In conversations with the few TD posters I have met and in meeting people at Spring Training or watching the Cedar Rapids Kernels, I have to say it has been fun and interesting without a single person being boorish or arrogant. Maybe baseball fans are the best people in the world.
  7. stringer bell
    While this isn't "My Dinner with Andre" or "Tuesdays with Morrie", I did have dinner with someone on a Tuesday. During Monday's game thread our very own "scene setter" and moderator Riverbrian noted that he was in Rochester. I work in that fair city and live just over 20 miles away. I contacted Brian when he asked about bakeries, and we agreed to meet for beers and dinner while watching the middle game of the Twins-Indians series.
     
    I really didn't know what to expect. I knew that RB was in town on business (too many people visit Rochester because they or their loved ones are sick) and I knew his approximate age. From his posts, I knew he had a sense of humor and quite a bit of knowledge about "our Twins".
     
    First, the surprises (to me). RB is a real baseball fan and really knows the game, but he manages to not be dragged down much when the team loses or makes inexplicable moves. The Alfred E. Neuman moniker is fitting, in that respect. Secondly, I found out why RB didn't participate much in WAR and defensive metric discussions--because he feels those stats in particular are flawed too much to tell us anything about the players in question (I agree!).
     
    We discussed several topics--careers, politics, religion, floods, families and on and on and I can say that I was never bored while discussing these matters. On some items I could have said the same words, on others it was nice to hear a different perspective. In general, it is nice at my age and this point in my life to meet someone new. I
     
    Of course, since we are both members of TD, I knew we had a shared obsess.....er deep interest in the same thing--Twins baseball. In conversations with the few TD posters I have met and in meeting people at Spring Training or watching the Cedar Rapids Kernels, I have to say it has been fun and interesting without a single person being boorish or arrogant. Maybe baseball fans are the best people in the world.
  8. stringer bell
    Unless the Twins make a waiver claim, their roster is set for the start of the 2014 season. Several players have been hot topics here on Twins Daily. I will offer my takes on 10 players and hope that they stimulate some conversation.
     
    1) Joe Mauer--Now the Twins regular first baseman and unquestioned best player. Mauer is the biggest certainty on the team. He will hit and he won't say anything controversial. Joe still needs to learn a little about first base, he has struggled some there this spring. I expect that problem to be temporary, and I expect that Mauer will be an excellent defensive 1B by midseason. It does show that even a premium athlete like Mauer can't necessarily be bounced around the diamond. I am a traditionalist, I guess. I have always believed the team's best hitter should hit third. Tony-O, Kirby, Knoblauch, and Molitor to name just a few examples. Mauer is the best hitter--he should bat third and the other guys should fill in the spots around him.
     
    2) Aaron Hicks--After reading the "Put Me in Coach" blog about Hicks, the phrase "fool me once, shame on you--fool me twice, shame on me" comes to mind. The posters are basing Hicks' future performance on his obvious athletic gifts and (gulp) strong second half of spring training. Aaron Hicks fell somewhere between "failure" and "disappointment" in 2013. To expect him to excel is a huge jump. I'm hoping for extreme improvement where most metrics show him to be average. I have posted quite often on Hicks' future. I believe Byron Buxton is the real deal--a future All-Star fixture with a near unlimited ceiling. If that is true, Hicks would have to move to a corner to have a future as a Twin. I remain unconvinced that he will hit enough to ever justify such a move. I believe he will hit and field well enough eventually to be an above-average center fielder, which makes him a valuable trade chip. I like what Hicks brings to the table. I hope he succeeds, but I don't think he will ever hit enough to be a regular left or right fielder. One more cautionary thought: Hicks has to go some to be better than average defensively. Last year he struggled early and settled in and was pretty good. That doesn't make him elite. With more experience, he has the tools to be an elite defender and I would expect he can get there, but that isn't a done deal yet, either.
     
    3) Trevor Plouffe--He actually had a pretty good spring FWIW. Baseball curmudgeon Patrick Reusse had a nice article on "Plouffsie", which captured the ups and downs of a flawed, but serviceable player. Plouffe is perhaps the Twins best hope to hit for power from the right side, he seemed to show a better approach at the plate late last year and this spring. Let's not kid ourselves, unless Plouffe exceeds 20 long balls, the flaws will exceed the improvements as a hitter. Trevor is neither one of the current wave or an aging veteran. He and Dozier and a couple of pitchers are bridges to the next surge for the Twins. Plouffe doesn't seem to have the instincts to ever be a truly good defender or baserunner, but if he can bash the baseball, we can forgive much of his downside. I've never met him, but I've read his tweets and comments in the papers and I like what I've read. It's a huge season for Trevor--if he disappoints, he could be non-tendered and perhaps become a baseball nomad, like his friend Delmon Young. If he steps forward, he could become part of the Twins future (maybe in left field) and probably garner a very nice contract. I'm cautiously optimistic.
     
    4) Josh Willingham--Speaking of RH power, there is the Hammer. Willingham is a bat-first "corner outfielder". Obviously, he needs to hit to be an asset. Last year, he didn't hit. This spring has offered no encouragement that he will hit, but it's only Spring Training. Willingham is 35, making him the oldest Twin and it is possible that his decline has started and was escalated by injury last year. It is also possible that Willingham has a lot of good swings left. Last year was ruined by injuries but this is a contract year, so Willingham will have every incentive to play and produce as much as possible. I think that the most important (and uncertain) man in the lineup is Hammer. If he resembles his Silver Slugger self of 2012, Mauer will get a lot of good pitches to hit and Willingham will have a lot of runners on base to drive in. If he's more like last year, the lineup really crumbles around him. Defensively, Willingham's best postion is DH. I hope the Twins can find three better outfielders that can hit a little so that Hammer can just hit. I have speculated that it is truly unlikely that Willingham remains a Twin. I hope he hits enough to net something by the trading deadline.
     
    5) Eduardo Escobar--He is this year's second-string quarterback. His hitting flaws are minimized because everyone saw that Florimon is a poor hitter. In my book, Escobar is a very nice three-position utility infielder. Besides this, he might play a few innings in the outfield and (shudder) might even find himself behind the plate. Why is Esco a utility guy? He doesn't hit enough to be a regular and he's not a defensive upgrade at the two middle infield positions. Escobar looks to have a better bat than Florimon, and plays better in the field than Plouffe. He has soft hands and a really good arm, but I don't think his has plus range at short and he doesn't have great footwork at second. Escobar is an injury or implosion away from starting at second or short. As a switch hitter, he might get quite a few PAs at third, as well. I don't see Escobar as a regular, but I think he could be a fine utility guy for a long time. If his hitting tools steps forward, he could be more.
     
    Since this post is getting pretty long, I'll continue later with a new blog.
  9. stringer bell

    10 Opinions

    By stringer bell,

    1) All baseball fans that have the capacity to visit Spring Training should do so. Hope springs eternal, but more than that, fans can watch drills and minor league games and scrimmages. At Fort Myers, we can sit next to minor league prospects, scouts, and knowledgeable fans. In past years, TR was on the premises and talked with fans sharing much more than makes the papers. It is great to watch both the top prospects and the most anonymous players. Autographs are fairly easy to get and the atmosphere is almost as warm as the weather.
     
    2) Joe Mauer is where he should be, batting third and playing first base. After the concussion, Mauer needed to get out from behind the plate. First base is the proper position for him to transition to at this point. Mauer is a three-time batting champ and former MVP--he is a great hitter. He needs to be able to have the best chance to hit and stay strong and being a first baseman fills that bill. Further, I think that by midseason Mauer will be a fine defensive 1B. He still has good reactions, has a long reach and is accustomed to digging balls out of the dirt and he has played more than 50 games at first. Catching has robbed Mauer of most of his speed and he wouldn't cover much ground in the outfield. Perhaps he could have moved to third, but Miguel Sano lurks and he has never played the position. The team's best hitter should hit for a little more power and in my book profiles as the ideal 3-hole hitter.
     
    3)A position player other than Buxton or Sano will develop into an All-Star for the Twins. DH Kennys Vargas, Adam Brett Walker, Danny Santana, and Josmil Pinto are some names in the upper minors. Vargas is drawing comparisons to Big Papi, Santana has shown an improved hit tool at a position of need and Pinto is on the cusp after a very good September audition. Walker is a strong, raw talent. There are many more talented prospects and I think someone will break through in the next couple of years.
     
    4)Pitching will be the strength of the Twins minor league teams. Signing three free agents has the side effect of packing each level with high quality arms. From Cedar Rapids to Rochester, the Twins will have guys who perhaps merit competing at a higher level. In other years, Tonkin, Guerra, Pressly, and the loser(s) in the fifth starter competition would be on the major league roster. Thielbar would be a lock most years, but it is possible he will be optioned to Rochester.
     
    5)Defense and lack of speed will be glaring weaknesses for the Twins in 2014. Florimon, Dozier, and Hicks have good, not great, speed. Most of the rest of the squad lacks speed and several are glacier-like. The gloves at third, left and right are below-average and it is probably more important for a pitch-to-contact staff that the Twins will field.
     
    6)The 25-man roster going north this year will change dramatically over the course of this year. Given the contracts of the players, some obvious replacements making their way up the ladder in the minors, and (finally) pressure from within to start winning, transactions are bound to happen. I foresee Willingham being traded before or at the deadline. Plouffe and Parmelee, among others, could be traded off. Several pitchers should be available out of the bullpen, plus Correia. The Twins also have the payroll space to add a veteran for a prospect to fill a hole (SS or C, perhaps DH or OF).
     
    7)There will be positive surprises. This is a karma thing. So many things have gone so wrong for the last three years, it seems only right and fair that the Twins have positive performances from unexpected sources. Maybe it will be Chris Colabello, maybe one of the Jasons, maybe a call-up like Danny Santana comes up and performs like an All-Star. Perhaps someone acquired in a trade will overperform.
     
    8)Power will be key. With little speed, questionable defense, and many questions about the pitching, the Twins need to slug better. They have guys--Arcia, Willingham, Plouffe--need to hit balls over the fence, hopefully with more than a few runners on. Many guys have OK or better power--Mauer, Pinto, Hicks, Dozier, Kubel, Colabello or Parmelee--so that if they hit homers, the Twins might produce a few more runs than projected and that could mean quite a few more wins.
  10. stringer bell
    I have been in Fort Myers since last Tuesday. I have seen four Twins games and a large amount of minor league games plus a full allotment of drills and BP. Today was the first day when the weather was subpar, and coming from the frozen north, the sunshine and warmth were much appreciated.
     
    The major league talent held few surprises. The Twins will field a team of position players who, as a group, are weak-hitting, lack power and speed, and aren't that good defensively. The pitching staff would be classed as "hittable" and lacking in power arms. Sure there is hope, but in order for the game to contend, they'll have to roll a lot of sevens.
     
    On the minor league side, there is a lot of exciting talent in addition to top prospects Buxton and Sano. There is a multitude of hard-throwing pitchers. There are several big strong hitters like D. Hicks, Vargas and Walker and a lot of speed. Watching Danny Santana run out a triple today was exciting. Better days are ahead for the Twins.
     
    I met two members of the Twins Daily community. "Madre Dos" is the house mother for many of the Latino E-Town Twins. She provided my brother and I with some perspective of what those young men go through. I think every baseball fan should hear her stories and better understand the challenges these young men face in rookie ball. I also met moderator Chi-Town Twins Fan. Chi-Town and I are from the same area and roughly of the same generation, so it was good to compare notes.
     
    My brother and I will check out the minor leaguers tomorrow before we head back. He's the big guy with a scooter. We would enjoy meeting a couple more TD regulars and I know Halsey and Thrylos were near us today. Maybe you guys can convince me you're right about who to keep on the 25-man roster!
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