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stringer bell

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Blog Entries posted by stringer bell

  1. The Twins will finish their third straight losing season late this month. In a year where I expected they would not contend, they haven't but more to the point they have had precious few players step up and establish themselves. All true-blue Twins fans know that there is impressive talent on it's way to Minnesota, especially among the position players. What was needed this year was to have some of the current roster establish itself for the second half of the decade. With the exception of second baseman Brian Dozier, that hasn't happened.
     
    Looking forward to 2014, the Twins will have far too many moving pieces and unproven parts to contend. I viewed 2014 as the transition season where the Twins would become a good team again with a refurbished roster. It could still happen, but too much talent is unproven and there are several holes to fill. I expect quite a bit of off-season activity for the Twins--perhaps trading a veteran (Doumit or Willingham), probably adding a starter or two, but I will project 2014 as if no significant moves are made. Here is my Opening Day projections for both starting lineup and 25-man roster.
     
    Starting lineup: Presley CF, Dozier 2B, Mauer 1B, Willingham DH, Arcia LF, Plouffe 3B, Doumit C, Parmelee RF, Florimon SS, Correia P. 25-man roster: Starters--Correia, Gibson, Diamond, Pelfrey, Worley. Bullpen: Duensing, Thielbar, Roenicke, Fien, Swarzak, Burton, Perkins. Catchers: Doumit and Herrmann Infielders: Mauer, Dozier, Florimon, Plouffe, Escobar. Outfielders: Arcia, Presley, Parmelee, Mastroianni DH: Colabello, Willingham.
     
    The biggest and most important moving piece is Joe Mauer. I am projecting he will be a first baseman and third catcher, playing behind the dish less than 10 times in the coming year. Mauer being a first baseman makes it possible that Josmil Pinto could start the season as the Twins regular catcher--if the Twins don't move Doumit, I think that move will wait, but barring injury or severe regression by Pinto, it would happen. I've listed Colabello and Willingham as DHs. I expect they would play in the field fairly often, with Mauer DHing some. I've penciled in Plouffe at third despite his disappointing 2013, with Escobar as the only infield backup. I am not really sure that Parmelee will open the season as a starter, but with no acquisitions he has a path to starting in the outfield. I am projecting that Presley (a better Clete Thomas) will open as the center fielder (probably platooning with Mastro), but Aaron Hicks could win back center with a good spring training and probably will reclaim center field sometime in the first half of 2014. I have also included Pelfrey in the starting rotation. He may not be back, but if he isn't I would expect the Twins would sign a similar veteran.
     
    In summary, I am seeing a non-contender opening 2014. I expect the season to transition from subpar to something much brighter. The front office can speed the transition up by adding to the starting rotation and perhaps adding a middle of the order hitter. Many players will need to establish themselves, but I think the bottom-out phase will be reached early and that the club will be better and more competitive at the end of the summer than when they start in April.
  2. The Twins put three minor league teams in the playoffs and have seen them all falter. Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers both were defeated 2-0 and Rochester trails 2-1 in a best of five series. The Red Wings will need to win two straight at Pawtucket to advance in the International League playoffs.
     
    When the Red Wings are eliminated, the Twins will call up a few of their players. Depending on injuries, that number could be as low as three or as high as five or six. My guess is that the Twins will recall only four guys--relief pitcher Michael Tonkin, 1B/RF Chris Parmelee, IF Eduardo Escobar and starting pitcher Scott Diamond. If a fifth player is recalled, I would guess that it would be Cole De Vries. All of these guys have seen time with the Twins and none profile as potential All-Stars. Notable in not being called up would be the Twins Opening Day center fielder Aaron Hicks.
     
    I have stated that Parmelee's role has changed from a guy given a job with a chance to establish himself to a guy who has to win a job. Parmelee could have a chance to win an outfield job or first base next year, but more likely will be competing to be a bench bat to start the year. Chris just hasn't hit enough to merit consideration to start at either first base or right field. He would figure to get quite a few at-bats upon his recall and the hope would be that some solid hitting would build his confidence heading into 2014.
     
    Escobar has had a good stint in Rochester. He hit .307 with an .880 OPS in nearly 200 plate appearances. He is regarded as a fine three position defender and should be a favorite to make the Twins as a utility infielder. If any of the three incumbent starters falter or are injured Escobar would be the #1 candidate to take their role. Being a switch hitter and seeing the platoon splits of two Twins' infield starters, Escobar could be in line for considerable playing time next year, whether or not someone struggles or is injured. Escobar has logged a lot of major league bench time in the last two years and his time in Rochester may have helped his development more than more pine time in Minnesota. It will be interesting to see how much he plays and whether he can continue to hit upon returning to the majors.
     
    Tonkin had a very good season. He started in New Britain and was a mid-season callup to the Red Wings. He had two appearances with the Twins, one impressive, one not so much in a blowout. Tonkin features a big fastball and a power slider IIRC. On a team with few power pitchers, the Twins would love to see him thrive for them next year. Tonkin seems to have struggled in his last couple weeks. I am not sure what to expect from him and if the team decided he's thrown enough, I guess he might not be recalled at all.
     
    I'm a Diamond fan. He went down to Rochester and after a rocky first appearance has pitched very well. Diamond is in the mix for a starting job in 2014 and a couple of good starts would help his confidence heading toward the new year. Diamond will start the Red Wings playoff game tonight, so how he throws would have a direct bearing on when and if he is recalled soon. Diamond's numbers at Rochester: 4-0 record, 33 H in 41 IP, 9 BB and 19 K and a 2.41 ERA.
     
    De Vries is my sneaky candidate for recall. He started 2013 on the Twins' DL after probably winning a spot in the rotation, had a couple setbacks, performed poorly, but since rehabbing he has been very effective. De Vries was a pretty effective major league pitcher in 2012. He hasn't been mentioned much as a candidate for the 2014 rotation, but a few good starts might open some eyes going forward.

  3. Fire 'em All!

    · stringer bell · 08/29/2013 09:34 PM

    I haven't paid close attention to the Twins for the past couple of weeks. I was on the road last (long) weekend and have played golf in the warm weather every night. I caught part of the game yesterday and followed along as the Twins were swept today. My frustration level with the product on the field has reached new highs. I checked out the numbers for all of the players and besides the disabled Mauer, no one is an even average hitter for their position. Yesterday was a sloppy defensive game and I understand there were mistakes in the field on Tuesday as well. We've known all year that the pitching staff is subpar, but I thought the offense and defense would improve this year. It hasn't. Right now this team is as bad as either of the two 90+ loss teams that preceded it.
     
    My solution? Fire everybody. Gardy--gone. "Andy"--pink slip. Steiny and Bruno--you're gone too. Vavra and Ullger--part of the current regime--out the door. The architect of this mess (Terry Ryan)--retired or fired. The time for patience and continuity is over. Of the 25 guys on the roster right now, no more than a couple will be playing for the team when they are relevant again. Sweep the floor clean and start over. Besides this, high-quality guys might want to take over as GM or field manager because the farm system is loaded.
     
    I am sick of seeing non-competitive lineups and efforts in the last third of the season and tired of counting my team out by the 4th of July, if not sooner. While most of the guys I am calling to be fired are good baseball guys, and I don't think it is all the fault of any one person, it is time to quit trying to tweak the "Twins way" and going a new direction. I also won't mind seeing major shakeups of the "talent" on the field. Go young, with a small sprinkling of veterans, trade away or DFA the chaff and get started on becoming a dominant team in this decade instead of looking back at the competitiveness of the last one. If the one star (Mauer) isn't happy with this, ask him to waive his no-trade contract and get a real haul for him.
  4. The Twins started 2013 with many question marks. The entire starting rotation was questioned (rightly), and new starters were introduced at 2B, SS, 3B, and RF. Center field was to be manned by a rookie who hadn't played above AA and several new arms were being deployed in the bullpen.
     
    The established players were Willingham, Morneau, and Mauer, with DH and backup catcher being handled by veteran Ryan Doumit.
     
    While not much was expected, the goal was to see some or all of the new player establish themselves, some of the pitchers to take a step forward and a larger core to be established for the next wave of high-profile prospects. If everything went right, the Twins could make substantial improvement in the W-L ledger and maybe threaten .500. If things went wrong, well there's next year and there wasn't a lot of money or years invested in the "bridge" players.
     
    With about 20% of the season remaining, there hasn't been much good news. Some players and pitchers (perhaps Correia, Pelfrey, and Florimon) have managed to meet low-bar expectations. Hicks and Parmelee (2/3 of the starting outfield) are in the minors, third baseman Plouffe hasn't hit enough or improved enough in the field to sew up a roster position for next year. Veterans Doumit and Willingham have regressed (Hammer was hampered by injuries) and Morneau is backing up a mediocre season with another mediocre season.
     
    The bullpen has been a success. They've been healthy and have handled their roles very well despite getting too much work. That is the second best news for the team on the field this year.
     
    The best news of 2013 has been the development and establishment of Brian Dozier as the team's second baseman. First the defense--Dozier has supplied more highlights than any other player on the team and on top of that, he has been fundamentally sound and steady. He has adjusted to second base incredibly well and seems to have mastered the double play pivot and the throws and angles in short order. Offensively, Dozier's numbers don't look that great--his average is in the .240s and he has struggled to get his OBP over .300--but Dozier has improved since a lousy April and May and he has demonstrated surprising sock for a middle infielder. He had 13 extra base hits in July and already has 15 in August, with a week to go. Dozier has hit 13 homers, second on the club and has a chance to set a home run record for a Twins second baseman. Dozier has batted leadoff more often than not since midseason. He's probably not ideal for that role, but is certainly the best option available for the Twins.
     
    For whatever reason, Dozier has also delivered best for the team this year when the chips were down. His splits with runners on, close and late, and RISP have been very good. He's second on the club in RBI, despite batting leadoff behind low OBP guys hitting in front of him.
     
    Dozier has earned the respect of his manager, and has cemented himself as a major league regular at age 26. He may be playing at his ceiling, but this level is good enough. Going forward, he is a regular or a pretty decent trade chip and definitely the biggest success story of the 2013 Twins.
  5. My best friend from high school and me stay in touch but seldom see each other. We decided we would attend a game sometime this summer and he called me last week telling me that he had tickets given to him to see the Astros--yes! The Astros--today. We met and had lunch and then attended the game. The weather was pleasant (mid 70s and mostly cloudy) and the Twins should certainly have had a chance since they were playing the worst team in mlb.
     
    The Twins did prevail 3-2 and the crowd was again pretty good (over 34,000) and they appreciated the positive moments that occurred during the game. There really weren't many positive moments. Pelfrey was his struggling self, pitching into and out of trouble in almost every inning. Except for two big flies, the Twins' offense did next to nothing. There weren't many good fielding plays or long fly balls, except for the two that cleared the fence.
     
    Some observations: Carroll started at third and looks .......really old. He doesn't have much zip on his throws (I noticed he's played almost no SS this year), his ABs were pretty poor. Morneau had a couple good rips besides his homer. I'll let others at TD debate whether today was a blip on the radar or something else. When I looked at the lineup and the Twins bottom of the order, I saw Thomas (minor leaguer), Carroll (should be retired) and Bernier (minor leaguer) with Herrmann and Colabello also on the roster and I'm thinking not good thought about Minnesota's GM. Arcia hit a couple balls right on the nose including the game winner and the major difference between the Twins and Astros is that the Twins have a decent, functional bullpen.
     
    I listened to more espn1500 this morning than I have in months. I heard Jim Souhan call out Trevor Plouffe and say that someone in the Twins' FO told him that nobody wanted any of the Twins available at the deadline. I don't hold out much hope for the club for the rest of the year. I think an August trade would be helpful, but unless somebody starts hitting or pitching better, I don't think that will happen. The roster is relatively old with a lot of guys that have zero upside.
     
    Oh, well. The Twins won a game and I got to see an old friend. And Target Field is a really nice venue.

  6. Rebuild a contender

    · stringer bell · 07/13/2013 01:57 PM

    All pretense that the Twins can or would contend in 2013 is gone, the product of a couple of bad losing streaks and the lack of competitive starting pitching. The club needs to focus on 2014 and beyond. Much speculation has been posted on Twins Daily about deadline deals and I'm sure that will continue even past the non-waiver deadline. Selling off veterans would have many effects: 1) It will make the team worse on the field immediately 2) it will give rookies and non-veterans a chance to show if they are worthy to be in the team's plans and 3) it will subtract salary from a payroll that has already been trimmed significantly and likely clear space on the 40-man roster.
     
    First of all, however, the Twins need to know who will be running the show. Terry Ryan has given no indication that he wants to step down and I have heard no rumors that the Pohlads want him out. I guess this means that Ryan will be the architect of the latest rebuilding effort. Who his field manager will be is more of a dicey proposition. Ron Gardenhire looks like he will preside over his third straight 90 loss season. Few non-expansion manager are able to survive such ineptitude. Gardy has been here for more than a decade and many seem to think his message and his means have gotten stale. I'm not calling for Gardy to be fired, but I will be neither surprised nor disappointed if he is let go.
     
    Who should succeed Gardenhire? Well, the club will definitely be young and inexperienced in the coming years. The in-house names bandied about (Molitor, Brunansky, Ullger, Steinbach) would all be rookie managers. I would hope that the Twins would look outside their organization to find a manager with some experience who could lead a team on the upswing. When Gardenhire leaves, it is widely expected that Rick Anderson will leave with him. I am pretty "meh" about Anderson, but much like the manager, it seems that his message has not been as effective as it was earlier.
     
    This leaves two areas to consider for the balance of 2013. First, how thoroughly does the team purge the veterans on the club? With the trade deadline on the 31st of this month and waiver claims after that, the Twins can and should part with players who won't help them win two years from now. Unfortunately, the trend for almost all of the tradeable vets over 30 is down. The exception is Glen Perkins, who is underutilized as the closer on a bad team, but is putting up elite numbers and was named to his first All-Star team. Secondly, the Twins need to know who they can count on in 2014 and beyond from their current roster. The means consistent at-bats for the likes of Dozier, Florimon, Parmelee, Plouffe, and the rookies Hicks and Arcia.
     
    Here is my opinion on the above issues. Sell the position players even if their value is low. Be more cautious with the pitchers and only accept fair value plus for a pitcher. In addition, when dealing, demand pitching in return. The farm system is stocked with the best prospects the Twins have had in recent memory, but it is overloaded with position players. The club needs to add pitching, particularly high-ceiling arms. Of course, this is the plan for probably 90% of rebuilding teams.
     
    Specifically, here is my scenario: Trade Morneau for what can be had. He won't get the haul of an All-Star, because he isn't one. I think the player and the team would be well-served by parting. I also think Doumit must go. He is an okay hitter, but not good enough to be a DH and he hits well for a backup catcher, but his defense hurts and he's 32. I've become a big booster of AA All-Star Josmil Pinto, who has had a great season in New Britain and is on the Twins' 40-man roster. Jamey Carroll might help a contender. He can continue with the Twins as a de-facto coach, but it makes no sense for him to be playing except as a replacement when giving a young player a day off. Parmelee and Arcia need at-bats. I'm confident that both will hit better than they are right now. Parm needs to put up numbers or be passed by. Arcia certainly has more rope, but his current slump is a bit alarming. The die is also cast on Aaron Hicks. He won't be demoted despite his sub-.200 BA and he has shown glimpses of All-Star ability. We need to remember that outside of Arcia and Hicks, the guys getting the at-bats are candidates to be the next Gladden and Gagnes or maybe Lombardozzis and Leiuses, rather than future Hall of Famers or All-Stars.
     
    On the pitching front, relievers Fien and Duensing should be shopped. Fien's value is pretty high right now so he is a good candidate to be traded, but again only if the team gets value for him. Duensing has regressed to the point that the return for him wouldn't be great. He's failed as a starter and hasn't been able to hold a 7th inning role either. Duensing has had success before, but not recently. I doubt the Twins get an offer good enough to send him away. There has been speculation on starters Mike Pelfrey and Kevin Correia. Correia started strong but has been less than ordinary in the last two months, while Pelfrey seems to be getting better slowly. Both profile as back of the rotation starters, which means that the payoff would be top prospects. Again, it would be fine to send either guy off, but innings eaters have value despite less-than-stellar stats. I know I'm in the minority, but I think the Twins should keep Pelfrey unless they are overwhelmed by a deadline offer. I like that his velocity is up and he is still very early on the road to recovery from TJ surgery.
     
    The Twins will continue to be bad this year whether they ship their veterans or not. Making the right rebuilding moves will help as soon as next year. Let's hope they make the right calls and that 2014 will be the ramp-up year for when they contend for a decade.
  7. The Twins have played the fewest games in the AL (along with the White Sox) and after 66 games, they are about what I thought they would be at this point: They are in fourth in their division and are within sight of everyone but Detroit. Big picture: Fine with me, I want to see this team sell at the trade deadline, but I don't want them to be dreadful.
     
    What is not fine with me is that the players I want the Twins to sell just aren't performing that well. Doumit (.288/.405/.692), Morneau (.341/.379/.720) and the Hammer (.352/.411/.763) are all well below last year's results which would indicate that their value has diminished. It has been discussed all over TD, but Morneau's lack of power has lowered his OPS from last year, even though his BA is up. On the pitching side, I think the Twins need to hold on to whatever effective arms they have. Perkins has done well and has a nice team-friendly contract and despite a couple of hiccups lately, Burton is a good late-inning arm. I suppose the club could deal one of those guys while they have good value. Starters Correia and Pelfrey might have some value. Correia has been the Twins most consistent starter, but he epitomizes the mostly discredited "Pitch to Contact" approach and his innings could go to somebody currently toiling in Rochester. If the Twins can get anything of value for him, I would sell. Pelfrey, on the other hand, seems to be getting stronger. He's throwing harder, getting more Ks, and pitching deeper into games. Perhaps the Twins could sign him for another year at a bargain rate rather than selling and seeing him thrive for someone else.
     
    There are several players whose box scores I check no matter what. Mostly I am looking at players who can help the Twins in the next year or two. That includes some guys on the major league team and some in the minors. Also included, any left hander than can get batters out--there never are enough lefties!
     
    Here's a list with a thumbnail of the season so far and the reason why they could be players for the Twins: Chris Parmelee--could/should be Morneau's successor at first base. Young enough to be a key player when the next wave arrives. Parm is hitting .223 with a .648 OPS. He failed to secure a position last year and is on his way to ceding a spot in the Twins future. The bright spot has been surprisingly good defense in right field. He might be slotted as a bench player (RF/1B/DH) despite his poor hitting. Brian Dozier--For a franchise with so few good middle infielders, having a capable middle infielder is important. Dozier had a good game today and currently is hitting .230 with a .624 OPS. Again, Dozier has fielded his new position surprisingly well, but he has to hit more to secure a spot for 2014 and beyond. Dozier's June numbers are encouraging, with a .297 BA and OPS over .800. Pedro Florimon--He is important for the same reasons as Dozier. The bar for Florimon was set very low going into the season and he hit surprisingly well early. His overall offensive numbers mirror Dozier's--.227 BA with a .632 OPS--but June has not been kind to Florimon. Going into today's play, he's hitting .119 with a puny .388 OPS. His defense has slipped, as well, so that I don't think Pedro has guaranteed anything more than continued play into next month. Finally on the roster, Trevor Plouffe. Plouffe has had injury issues, but his numbers are ....well, good! Plouffe has an obvious successor playing in the Twins system, but if he can hit to an .800 OPS, he'll have a job with the Twins or somewhere else. Plouffe has the necessary skills to be a decent 3B and enough hitting prowess to be a regular somewhere in the Twins lineup. Good health, Trevor!
     
    In the Twins top two minor league teams, I watch the catchers because I believe it is in the Twins best interest to have Joe Mauer catch less. Very encouraging numbers from Josmil Pinto, give me hope that the Twins can have a young receiver splitting time with Mauer behind the plate and hitting. Pinto's numbers at New Britain are outstanding: .321 BA and .957 OPS and reports have him being capable as a defender. "Utility catchers" Chris Herrmann and Dan Rohlfing look like guys who could fill a third catcher role, also able to play in the outfield and perhaps an infield corner: Herrmann did very well for the Twins in 15 plate appearances and Rohlfing has been outstanding as a C/OF for the Red Wings after putting up okay numbers in New Britain. Beyond the catchers, I look at NB SS Danny Santana, who is hitting a low-power low OBP .280 and has 20 errors at shortstop. Daniel Ortiz, who was a consistent performer early, but has slipped a bit. He's a corner OF with a .769 OPS. Finally, Michael Tonkin has impressed. He started in New Britain, and has moved to Rochester. He has a good WHIP, opponent's BA and strikes out more than one per inning. I think Tonkin will fit in as a late inning option for the Twins as soon as this year.
  8. If Brian Dozier played second base this year like he played shortstop last year, is there any chance he'd still be on the big league roster? If Chris Parmelee played right field with the proficiency of Ryan Doumit and (so far) Osvaldo Arcia, would he be in Minneapolis or Rochester (NY)? Finally, if Pedro Florimon played shortstop like he did last year and the first couple weeks of this year, would the fans be calling for Escobar, Carroll and Danny Santana?
     
    I think the answer to all three questions is that defense has made a difference. Dozier as a shortstop last year demonstrated marginal tools--average range, enough arm--and probably a lack of focus due to his offensive struggles. He was a subpar SS, for sure. This year he has moved to second and has been a very good defender, showing good range, a quick pivot, especially for someone new to the position, and good hands. His defense has kept him in the big leagues and probably kept him in contention to continue to get regular at-bats this year and beyond.
     
    Parmelee was thought to be a displaced first baseman, basically waiting for Morneau to get injured or traded. While he isn't blessed with even average speed, Chris has caught everything he could get to, played the corners and the walls well, charged balls well hit in front of him and thrown very well. Because he gets pretty good breaks on balls, I think one could classify his range as "adequate" despite the lack of foot speed. This year, Parm has logged an inning in center field and served as a defensive replacement. Not many would have predicted either of those things going into the season. So, despite a .223 BA and .647 OPS, Chris is still getting playing time in Minnesota, not upstate New York.
     
    Florimon's assignment as the regular shortstop was questioned. There was nothing to project him as anywhere near an average hitter and his defense didn't profile as anything special--too many errors, too many routine plays not turned into outs--and Pedro began the season with some sketchy defense. He could have been charged with a half dozen more errors than he received and threw a whole bunch of sinkers to first base, most of them dug out by Morneau. As the weather has warmed, so has Florimon's defense. The throws are 100% improved, he's fielding grounders with confidence and making very few, if any, mental mistakes. Combined with acceptable offensive production, Florimon has, for now at least, cemented his position in the lineup.
     
    All three of these guys need to hit to maintain their roles with this club and have a future in the big leagues, but their leashes have gotten longer because they have exceeded expectations in the field. To me, Parmelee is the biggest surprise. He doesn't look like much of an athlete, but he's made the plays. Unfortunately for him, defense at first and outfield corners is not nearly as important as how well you swing the bat. Dozier and Florimon have been a decent middle infield and a real improvement over last year.

  9. Black Holes--Part III

    · stringer bell · 05/29/2013 09:33 PM

    I've blogged about the disappointing offense for the 2013 Twins and pointed out three guys who are offensive tail enders. Brian Dozier--limited ceiling middle infielder, Chris Parmelee--right fielder/first baseman who has teased the Twins with good stretches, but has failed once and is failing again to secure a spot from the start of the season and now Aaron Hicks.
     
    Aaron Hicks ranks fifteenth of fifteen center fielders in OPS. He started the season as the Twins' leadoff hitter and center fielder and has since been put near the bottom of the order. Hicks started historically bad. He finished April with a .113 batting average and .356 OPS--many pitchers (and Drew Butera) would be ashamed of that stat line. There has been slow improvement. For the month of May, Hicks is hitting .202 and OPSing an even .700, not great but a noticeable improvement from the previous month. Hick had hit five homers, second on the team, and has scored 25 runs and knocked in 17.
     
    Hicks was the Twins #1 draft choice in 2008 and he moved slowly through the system, repeating low A ball at Beloit. He has never hit .300 in a full season, has never played an inning in AAA, and the switch hitter's splits have always shown him to be a better right handed hitter. Nevertheless, the Twins saw fit to promote him based on a solid season in New Britain and a very good spring training. Hicks has always shown good selectivity and has shown from the beginning the tools necessary to be a fine defensive center fielder.
     
    Several issues have developed around Aaron and the Twins' center field position. First, he currently doesn't have a true backup. Fourth outfielder Darin Mastoianni has been injured basically all season. Another candidate for center, Joe Benson, was claimed on waivers after being demoted and struggling at Rochester. The Twins have no backup CF on the major league roster or the current 40-man roster. Hicks' struggles have prompted calls for him to be sent down to Triple A, also meaning that if he stays in the minors for three weeks, the Twins would get another year of service from Hicks before he could be a free agent. So far, the Twins are saying that he will do his struggling and learning in the majors. Many are calling for Hicks to give up switch hitting and be only a RH hitter.
     
    What does the immediate future hold for Aaron Hicks? With no replacement (and no room) on the 40-man roster, it looks like he is safe from demotion at least until Mastoianni can play again. Continued improvement would probably keep him in Minnesota for the rest of the season. More than any player on the 25-man roster, the priority with Hicks is his development. He is considered a Prospect with a capital P and developing his talent is Objective One. I have thought from the beginning that a month in Rochester would be beneficial for Hicks. Failing that, having an alternate who could start once or twice a week against a tough righthander would be helpful. Since that doesn't appear to be an option, I guess that answer is to let him play and learn. I certainly don't think making Hicks a righthanded hitter makes sense. I would predict that Hicks continues to get at-bats and continues to improve modestly. The numbers probably won't be pretty, but a BA over .200 and an OPS in the mid .600s would be a success considering his dreadful start.

  10. Black Holes--Part II

    · stringer bell · 05/29/2013 04:35 PM

    I introduced my thoughts on the Twins' failings on offense and pointed out three players who are toward the bottom of the statistical pile--Brian Dozier, Chris Parmelee and Aaron Hicks. I profiled Dozier as a low-ceiling guy in a position of need and optimistically said that he is capable of a .675-.700 OPS, which would be good enough to keep his job going forward. Chris Parmelee is my next topic.
     
    Chris Parmelee was a #1 draft choice for the Twins in 2006. He progressed slowly through the minors and posted mostly undistinguished numbers, but showing some power potential until 2011 in New Britain. There he had his highest full season BA and coupled that with 13 homers and 83 RBI, garnering a September call-up to the Twins. Chris enjoyed an outstanding September with the Twins, hitting .355 with a 1.055 OPS, while clubbing 4 homers and driving in 14. That showing put him on the radar as a first base/DH option for 2012. Justin Morneau's slow recovery from a concussion and other issues gave Parmelee a ticket to the big leagues last year. Chris was the starting first baseman, but he struggled most of the time. When Morneau demonstrated he was ready to play first, Parmelee was sent to Rochester for his first AAA experience. Parmelee opened eyes again with his hitting in the International League, hitting .338 and OPSing over 1.000. Back to the Twins, and his play improved after his recall but not on the level of his September breakout the year before or the blistering hot streak in Rochester. All-in-all, Parmelee was a disappointment, but he showed enough to be penciled in as a starter when two starting outfielders were traded in the offseason.
     
    Parmelee was moved to right field in spring training. He handled the corner outfield spot well and hit enough to be rewarded with another trip north, this time as the Twins right fielder. So far, much like Brian Dozier, the position change has been no problem. Parmelee has surprised many with his proficiency as a right fielder, however the bat hasn't done the job. He's currently hitting just .214 with a .619 OPS. Only one AL regular, Jeff Francour, has worse offensive numbers. Several issues revolve around Parmelee. First, he is viewed as Justin Morneau's replacement if Morneau leaves via free agency, is traded, or is injured, so his fortunes in some respect are tied to the big Canadian. Second, if Parm is considered a corner outfielder, the Twins have a prospect on the horizon. Osvaldo Arcia already has over 100 major league plate appearances and has shown the potential to be a top flight hitter. Third, is Parmelee himself. Is he going to develop into a star, a regular, a role player, or is he going to be discarded soon like his fellow '06 draftee partner Joe Benson? The results are mixed. Perhaps the biggest red flag this year has been former Twins' manager Tom Kelly (serving as a guest analyst) frankly admitting that Parmelee was having trouble catching up to big-league fastballs. Is this just a symptom of a slump or is it the ultimate career-limiter?
     
    Principally because of interleague play, Parmelee has seen limited at-bats on the just-completed road trip. He seems to be doing a bit better--5 for 15 in the last seven days with a long homer in Milwaukee. The Twins need to see which Parmelee is the genuine article. If he can OPS around .800 with decent power and the ability to play both first and the outfield, it is much easier to part with Morneau and pave the way for making Joe Mauer a part-time first baseman. The slow start will make it tough to post those numbers for this season, but I don't think it is out of the realm. My prediction would be that Parmelee gets the numbers up to acceptable (about a .750 OPS), in the middle third of AL right fielders. I have said on other threads, that if the production doesn't improve, he is likely shoved aside. There is talent (lots of it) coming in the Twins' farm system.

  11. The "Black Holes"--Part I

    · stringer bell · 05/29/2013 03:26 PM

    As the season approaches the one-third mark, the Twins have slipped well below .500 and are now in a logjam of teams (a half game ahead of Toronto and Seattle, tied with KC, a half game behind the Angels) that has to look up to see respectability and only solidly ahead of one team (the woebegone Astros). Starting pitching is the main culprit, but the team hasn't produced offensively either. The Twins are 10th in runs per game, 14th (next to last) in OPS and homers and last in slugging. The offensive disappointment can be traced to several factors including: 1) Bad weather 2) Weird seasons from their former MVPs, Mauer (a ton of strikeouts) and Morneau (no power) and 3) regression to the mean from last year's free agent acquisitions, Doumit and Willingham.
     
    The primary reason, IMHO, why the Twins offense has struggled has been too many easy outs. The Twins entered 2013 with five new starters, each a question mark, and I stated as the season started that the success or failure of these non-proven non-rookies would determine the success or failure of 2013. So far the results are mixed, at best. New shortstop Pedro Florimon has picked up his fielding after a slow start and is hitting acceptably, especially given very low expectations. Trevor Plouffe isn't a gold glover, but he has shown incremental improvement at third in his first full year as a 3B and while he hasn't "gone off", he's been an average offensive third baseman. The other three new starters will be the subject of this and two more blogs. They are the "black holes" in the lineup--guys that rank among the worst offensive players at their positions. The accused are second baseman Brian Dozier, right fielder Chris Parmelee, and center fielder Aaron Hicks. First Dozier.
     
    Brian Dozier came to the Twins on May 7 last year and lasted as the regular shortstop until mid-August. Dozier became a prospect by having a fine 2011 in the minors, hitting over .300 at both Ft. Myers and New Britain while adding some extra base sock. Dozier started out well for the Twins before fading badly and also playing a poor shortstop. It was decided that he try to make the transition to second base and he was given the inside track to win a starting job there in spring training. Dozier performed commendably in the field and hit acceptably and won the job in March. So far, Dozier's defense has been excellent, but the offensive graph has not been good. Dozier started slow, as almost all the regulars did, came on to get his BA to around .250 and then slumped horribly. His three-hit game last night put him above .200, but the OPS is still only .537, ahead of Chicago fill-in Jeff Keppinger and recently-demoted Dustin Ackley.
     
    Dozier just turned 26 and has never been projected to be a star. His leash is a bit longer because besides the two in-house utility infielders (one of whom is 39 years old) there isn't a player who profiles as a starting major league second baseman in the system above Fort Myers. As with all the "black holes", I think there is hope for Dozier. He certainly needs to hit more, but he isn't a .537 OPS player IMHO. Patience and proper usage might lead to Brian establishing himself as a regular. I would peg his OPS at the end of the year being between .675 and .700 (something like .320/.370/.690)--those numbers would put him in the middle of the pack offensively. Combined with plus defense and no palatable alternatives, Dozier could stick as the Twins regular second baseman going in 2014.

  12. All the Right Moves?

    · stringer bell · 05/26/2013 04:27 AM

    After a period of stability, the Twins have made a rash of moves. Many of the moves have been panned by the denizens of Twins Daily for being shortsighted, cheap, stupid or all of the above. Some are calling out the GM for saying the team was trying to compete when, in fact, they are rebuilding and focusing on next year or the year after.
     
    News flash! The team isn't going to contend this year. Ryan's "contention" talk was predicated on miraculous performances by pitchers who have been much less than miraculous. The hitters have been, on balance, disappointing and a couple teams in the AL Central are pretty good. No chance in 2013. Certainly, Ryan knew this could happen and the next step for Project 2013 is to prepare a nucleus for next year and 2015 and find out what he needs to acquire to make future teams viable in the division.
     
    There are a large number of question marks and several categories of players to be evaluated. Here's my take of the categories and the players in the categories for which Ryan must make decisions:
     
    Veterans--Morneau, Doumit, Willingham, Carroll, Perkins and Burton. These are established players with established roles and Ryan must decide whether hold on to them or trade them.
     
    Not established non-rookies--Hendriks, Robertson (both demoted early), Plouffe, Florimon,
    Dozier, and Parmelee. Several position players were new starters this April, none of them had started all year in 2012. This is a group that the Twins have to determine whether they should be starters going forward and if the Twins need to check out the minors of other teams. So far, the results have been mixed, at best. Dozier and Parmelee have been disappointments, Plouffe held his own until his injury and Florimon has exceeded very modest expectations. The two pitchers I mentioned didn't make it through April.
     
    Fringe guys--Hernandez, Walters, Deduno, Colabello, and Thielbar--These guys mostly are placeholders who get a chance to stay in the majors. None of them project to be long term Twins or stars, but they will get a chance to keep in the majors if they do their jobs. If any of these guys have to be demoted or ride the bench for a long period, so be it. If any of them can be a productive player in the coming years, it will be a bonus.
     
    Rookie Prospects--First of all, these are guys who the Twins are banking on to help them be a good team again. The team will do everything they can to help these guys become producers in the coming years. The players include Arcia, Hicks, and Gibson. The Twins approach seems to be different for each guy--they've stuck with Hicks despite his major struggles, they've sent Arcia down three times and much to many contributors' frustrations they have refused to promote Kyle Gibson despite the worst starting rotation in the major leagues.
     
    In discussing transactions, playing time, trades, or demotions, it is important to remember that everybody doesn't get treated the same, nor should they. Goal one is to do what is right to help the prospects succeed. We can argue with the plan, but we, the fan base, must support the idea of developing talented, young, and inexpensive players. For me, I would have sent Hicks down to secure his services for another year and build his confidence at Rochester. Gibson, IMHO, should have been promoted at least a week ago and I basically agree with the treatment of Arcia, although it hasn't been smooth for him.
     
    The unproven non-rookies need a longer leash than barely a quarter of the season. Since this is a non-competing year, the Twins need to find out about them. I think somewhere around midseason is a fair evaluation period. Some of the veterans need to be traded, some should stay as veteran preference for the improved teams fueled by a (now) top-notch farm system.
     
    The key component for the near future for the Twins is their starting staff. They need to develop/acquire enough talent to compete with the deep rotations in Detroit, Cleveland and several other AL cities. Let's see if Ryan's moves work out, particularly with the starting staff.

  13. Ex-Twins in the Majors

    · stringer bell · 04/01/2013 11:23 AM

    Here is a list of ex-Twins who have made Opening Day rosters in the major leagues. Long on pitchers and outfielders, short on infielders and starting pitching quality. Sound familiar?
     
    Denard Span--Nationals
    Ben Revere--Phillies
    Jason Kubel--Diamondbacks
    Carlos Gomez--Brewers
    Torii Hunter--Tigers
    Michael Cuddyer--Rockies
    Garrett Jones--Pirates
    Alexi Casilla--Orioles
    JJ Hardy--Orioles
    Nick Punto--Dodgers
    Henry Blanco--Blue Jays
    AJ Pierzynski--Rangers
    Wilson Ramos--Nationals
    Jason Marquis--Padres
    RA Dickey--Blue Jays
    Kyle Lohse--Brewers
    Philip Humber--Astros
    Kevin Slowey--Marlins
    Grant Balfour--A's
    Pat Neshek--A's
    Luis Ayala--Orioles
    Jesse Crain--White Sox
    Jose Mijares--Giants
    Jon Rauch--Marlins
    Matt Guerrier--Dodgers
    Joe Nathan--Rangers
    LaTroy Hawkins--Mets
     
    Notable DLs--Santana, Ortiz, Young, Liriano, Breslow
  14. The Twins have hit the 20 game milestone and are a breakeven 10-10. Considering the pessimism going into the season, we Twins fans should be happy with the results. Some raw numbers: Run differential is -6. Team ERA is 3.92, the Twins have scored 83 runs despite only 13 homers and a league-worst slugging percentage. They are 5-2 in one-run games and have allowed only 11 homers, second best in the AL. Many of these stats can't be sustained--they will allow more homers and win fewer close games--but the team is improved.
     
    The team hasn't gotten much from several players--Aaron Hicks is off to a historically bad start to a career. Morneau, Plouffe, Doumit, and Parmelee (normal 4-7 hitters) have combined for 4 homers and 24 RBI in 294 plate appearances and Worley and Pelfrey have been much more bad than good in their starting turns. Escobar and Correia have far exceeded expectations, but they are really the only ones who are performing better than one might expect. The defense has been inconsistent, highlighted by SS Pedro Florimon. However, there have been many highlight defensive plays as well. Two players in new positions--Parmelee and Dozier--have seemed to be good fits to their new spots.
     
    I think the club is still a ways away from truly contending. The top end of the rotation is suspect, the hitting is inconsistent, and they have put pressure on a pretty good bullpen. The upcoming road trip will probably tell a lot about the present for the Twins.
     
    In looking at minor league performance and players returning from injury, it appears that the back end of the rotation has many candidates for few spots. Current #4 starter, Pelfrey hasn't had a quality start and has had two lousy outings and two okay starts, never finishing the sixth inning. Pedro Hernandez, the nominal #5, pitched only 5 innings today, but was effective. There are no less than four candidates--Gibson, Hendriks, Walters, Deduno,--for starting spots and at some point Rich Harden could also be considered for a spot. Add in the two off-season trade acquisitions in AA and that is quite a logjam of potential starters. In the bullpen, Tim Wood and Rafael Perez are nearing health with a full bullpen and 40-man roster. Tyler Roberton has also pitched well at Rochester, so there could soon be too many okay options for too few spots there.
     
    In the outfield and at first base, the Twins have service time considerations with rookies Hicks and Arcia. When Darin Mastroianni returns from the disabled list, one of those two would figure to be sent down to Rochester. There is a chance that Chris Parmelee could be sent down instead, but I think the Twins have seen enough of Parm raking at Rochester. The outfield/first base decision could be complicated by somebody catching fire at Rochester. Colabello has been outstanding so far and onetime top prospect Joe Benson has put together a few good games. Another week in the minors would delay 21 year old Arcia's free agency for another year. Hicks would need to be sent down for three weeks to delay free agency. As with most roster decisions, it probably doesn't make any sense to decide until you have to, injuries and ineffectiveness usually help to make the decision easier.

  15. A Really Bad Week

    · stringer bell · 04/14/2013 03:46 AM

    Since the Twins won last Sunday to go 4-2, they have lost five consecutive games and fallen to the basement of the AL Central. More to the point, they now have one of the worst run differentials in the AL and their offensive, defensive, and pitching stats are among the worst, as well.
     
    There haven't been many positive surprises and there have been disappointments throughout the roster. The #1 disappointment has to be Aaron Hicks, hitting a microscopic .057 with an OPS of .155. Vanimal has had three starts--one satisfactory, one substandard and one dreadful. Florimon has hit a little, but has been poor in the field, being charged with three errors and he should have been charged with one or two more, plus Morneau has saved him a couple more throwing errors. Liam Hendriks hasn't gotten over the hump and was demoted, Pelfrey had one poor start and Twins' lefthanded relievers have yielded two grand slams.
     
    The weather has been miserable for the Twins, with little hope for great improvement there for the next week or so. I doubt that there will be many sellouts for the rest of the season.
     
    It looks to me like a lot of changes are on the horizon. There is a full 40-man roster with several players not on the roster in line to be recalled--Colabello, Walters, Deduno, Perez, and Harden and perhaps an outfielder--while there is a lineup of pitchers to be tried in the rotation. I predict that Wilken Ramirez will be DFAed within a month, probably Pedro Florimon, as well. The starting rotation should remain unsettled with several equivalent hurlers trying to nail down a spot. Continuing losses likely will mean trades of players who are over 30 and have trade value, but probably not until close to the trading deadline.
     
    The Twins' two top farm teams have also been effected by weather, and also aren't winning much with exceptions being Colabello and Arcia at Rochester, and not much encouraging pitching at the top levels. The two A-league teams look stacked. There are a lot of prospects and so far a lot of winning has happened in Cedar Rapids and Fort Myers. It is still very early, but the signs aren't good. Maybe some wins and warmer weather will make the situation look less dire.

  16. Runaway Optimism

    · stringer bell · 04/05/2013 02:03 AM

    Yes, I heard the postgame show which pointed out the Twins were above .500 for the first time since 2010. I have seen the positive comments about the starting pitchers and their success so far this season. I do believe this team is improved and I think they are due for better luck after two disastrous seasons where any luck they had was bad luck.
     
    This is a club that will be hard-pressed to exceed 70 wins without more than one positive surprise. Three full games have yielded 17 strikeouts in 27 innings. That is the opposite of a collection of "power arms". The three games were played in cold conditions, with tough lighting (sun and shadows) and with a strong breeze. The conditions helped the pitchers on both sides, without a doubt. Of course, those same conditions hurt the Twins hitters. It would figure that they will do better with higher temperatures, lighter winds and more normal lighting.
     
    There are positive developments. The team has gotten production from their bench players. Justin Morneau appears to be healthy and should put up good numbers. There are other veterans who should again be productive. However, the team has many, many question marks and it is doubtful that each question will be answered positively.
     
    Some observations: 1) Spring training doesn't matter much at all. Worley, Correia, and Pelfrey all looked like they were pitching batting practice, but now that the games count we see they are big leaguers. 2) I do like a few "scrap heap" players that the Twins have picked up--last year Burton established himself, this year perhaps Pressly might prove that he can be a bullpen arm for this year and the future. Casey Fien did well last year and has pitched well in a couple of game situations. 3) Maybe it is the weather, but the defense needs to improve. Mauer let too many balls get by him and made a couple of tailing throws to second, Florimon booted a ball and made several poor throws. Several balls eluded Plouffe at third, and their range on the corners of the outfield is going to be limited. 4) This season still is going to be about players establishing themselves in the field--Plouffe, Parmelee, Hicks, Dozier, and Florimon (or maybe Escobar)--or on the mound (Hendriks, perhaps De Vries, Gibson, Meyer, May).
     
    Winning two out of three against the AL champs is nice, but the glow will fade quickly if the team plays poorly on the road. I am happy to see wins and competitive games.

  17. Fun So Far

    · stringer bell · 04/07/2013 11:03 PM

    Six games is only the first step in a marathon, but the Twins have been more entertaining than I though they would be. I don't think any of the question marks have been answered, but they have managed to be in every game and managed to squeak out three one-run wins out of the first six games.
     
    I am not getting my hopes up, but there are a lot of things that make this club worth watching. In no particular order, here are some observations I have after one week of baseball.
     
    JJ Hardy--Is there something wrong with his arm? His throwing motion looks awkward and all of his throws looked like changeups. Also, is he that slow or was he not running out of the box on the slow roller to Florimon?
     
    Brian Dozier--He made the perfect sacrifice bunt with runners on first and second, forcing Manny Machado to field the ball and guaranteeing the advance of both runners. Dozier's turns at second have been outstanding. He's played a tremendous second base. He needs a couple of multiple hit games to get the BA up.
     
    Pedro Hernandez--He is lefthanded and breathing. Actually, I think he has a chance to be okay. Too many walks today, but his minor league history suggests that shouldn't be a problem. His three strikeouts in five innings is the best of the starters, I believe.
     
    The Twins have allowed only two homers in six games. If that keeps up, they have a chance to win a lot more games. KC looks like they're swinging well, so the club will have to make a great effort to keep the HR number low.
     
    Maybe Aaron Hicks will warm up after getting a meaningful RBI single to help win the game today.
  18. I DVRed the game yesterday and watched most of it last night. While I didn't see some key events, I heard about them on the radio.
     
    The Twins had a chance to beat the Tigers but came up short in key at-bats. They also were hurt by bases advanced by the plodding Tigers.
     
    What went right: 1) Worley outlasted Verlander. Even though he was the losing pitcher he managed to go six innings and reached the threshold for a "Quality Start". 2) Fien struck out the side in the seventh and it was the top of the order. 3) The offensive approach allowed the Twins to only face Verlander for five innings. 4) Worley had the Tigers hitting the ball on the ground recording something like 15 ground ball outs, including one outstanding play from Florimon.
     
    What went wrong: 1) Four Twins came up in a game situation and only one (Doumit) brought in a run. Plouffe and Parmelee had a great chance to knot the game or put the Twins ahead in the 7th inning and failed. 2) Duensing and Roenicke combined to yield a key insurance run in the 8th, after the Twins had closed to within one run. 3) Defensive misplays and failure to make plays cost the Twins dearly--a) Peralta was a dead duck with a good throw and tag, Mauer's throw tailed and Florimon failed to catch the ball. Two wild pitches allowed runners to advanced and each scored as a result of that. Mauer blocked a low pitch, but couldn't locate it and Roenicke's went between the wickets. c) Florimon booted a fairly routine grounder and Dozier might have left too early on Torii's hit and run roller in the first inning. d) Worley allowed too many baserunners, which put pressure on the defense and it never allowed Vanimal to get in rhythm.

  19. A Great Start to 2019

    · stringer bell · 05/10/2019 05:14 AM

    Here we are on May 9th and the Twins have the best record in Major League Baseball. They have had some low moments, but mostly everything has gone as well as, or better than, expected. Chatter about the Twins has been positive, especially after dominating a bad Baltimore team and then winning a series (and the season series) against the Houston Astros. A 4-2 road trip, including a dominant sweep in Toronto have put the Twins a season-high 11 games over .500.
     
    I doubt everything will continue to come up roses for the Twins, it never does. They will suffer injuries and players will slump or disappoint. Even in the best of years, these things happen. However, it appears that in most respects, the team assembled by the relatively new executive team of Falvey and Levine is set up well to handle struggles and snags when they occur.
     
    Let's look at what has transpired in the mostly cold and wet months of April and early May. With the exception of Miguel Sanó, the offense has been healthy and rolling. The Twins are in the top tier in the league for run-scoring, home runs, slugging and OPS. They don't walk much (most of the lineup is comprised of aggressive hitters), but they don't strike out much, relative to the rest of the league. The Twins are averaging well over five runs a game, playing many games in poor weather conditions. They appear set to challenge team records in runs scored and home runs this year. The power is well-distributed, with most of the regular lineup already hitting six or more homers. They have endured slumps from regulars and a slow start from Marwin Gonzalez (who has essentially replaced Sanó) without suffering much on the scoreboard.
     
    Pitching has been a surprise. The team is in the top half of many key pitching stats, including runs per game, quality starts, shutouts, innings pitched by starters, and opponent's batting average. Three of the five starters have been outstanding, with a fourth (Kyle Gibson) rounding into form in recent starts. The starters good work has taken pressure off of the bullpen. The bullpen hasn't been spotless, but they've gotten the job done. The late-inning quartet of May, Hildenberger, Rogers and Parker has been satisfactory, if not dominating.
     
    Defensively, the team is also doing very well. New acquisitions Gonzalez, Schoop and Crom have all played well in the field and the team has mostly been able to keep it's regular outfielders on the field, all of whom are plus defenders.
     
    Individual performances of note include José Berríos ascending to ace or near ace status. Jorge Polanco playing good defense and breaking out with the bat, Martín Pérez finding a few mph on his fastball and coming up with a cut fastball to (so far) become an outstanding rotation piece. The catching duo of Mitch Garver and Jason Castro (with a few appearances by Willians Astudillo) has been outstanding with the bat and has been given credit for helping the pitching improve. On the negative side, Marwin Gonzalez hasn't hit much, new rotation member Michael Pineda has struggled mightily in his last four starts and several relievers at the front end of the bullpen have had trouble getting people out. Many more players have stepped it up beyond those mentioned. Basically, the good play to this point has been a team effort.
     
    Can this run continue? Well, I think the competition changes with many more games against familiar opponents in the Central Division--three of those teams (KC, Chicago and Detroit) are in one stage or the other of rebuilding--so the schedule figures to be somewhat more favorable. I doubt the Twins can keep hitting so many homers (they are on a pace to hit almost 300!) and I also doubt the pitching will continue to be dominant, but there is no doubt that they are improved.
     
    I think the need going forward this year is adding pitching. A starter to perhaps supplant Pineda and a strong bullpen arm would be helpful and when injuries happen, such improvements might be vital. The Twins are now considered favorites to win the Central, but they need to keep doing what they're doing.
     
    Credit for this improvement should be given to Falvey and Levine, who also hired rookie manager Rocco Baldelli. They've shown they pay attention to the metrics that are part of the game now and made good decisions in putting together a team for today without breaking the bank or mortgaging the future. There's a long way to go, but the ride this year promises to be fun and it might be magical.
  20. Well I saw the new Yankee Stadium last night. It was determined before we got to New York, that we would see Lions vs. Christians er Yankees vs. Twins on Friday night. My son, serving as tour guide/babysitter had us heading for the Bronx by 5 PM. After spending all afternoon in a museum, I was ready to go. We got to a subway station and headed towards the stadium. An uneventful 20 minute ride later and we were there. But wait! We hadn't eaten and the majority of our party didn't want ballpark food. We decided on seafood and the nearest place was only nine minutes away on foot. What we didn't know was that it was nine minutes straight uphill. We walked through what can charitably called a mixed neighborhood, broken bottles on the sidewalk, cars stopped/parked in unusual locations and Latin music blasting from stereos.
     
    The seafood place was small, smelled like fish, and had zero seating. We waited for our food and decided to walk back to the stadium to eat and wait for my son's fiancee, who had to work late and was to meet us. We got back and started exchanging texts with the fiancee, Irina, who just missed the subway train she thought she had to take. She was going to be late, so we split up we us old folks getting seated, while Jon waited for his sweetie. It turned out that Irina got on the wrong train and would not arrive until 7:30.
     
    Anyway, for me it was game on! Almost! A day of travel had drained the battery of my phone, so I tried to find a recharge station. After looking awhile, I found an AT&T place, but it took almost an hour to charge my phone.
     
    Meanwhile, the Twins grabbed an early lead, gave it back, took another lead and then gave it back for good. My observations--Milone was Milone, working the corners, hurt by bad defense and squeezed by the ump.After the first, Milone pitched from behind and he doesn't have the stuff to do that. Grossman made a couple of OK throws, but a good throw would have gotten Beltran. Escobar is supposed to be super reliable. He hasn't been this year. Buxton's first AB was great--he needs to go the other way more.
     
    The back of the Yankee bullpen was dominant.Chapman was something else. Yankee fans weren't very obnoxious and the stadium is functional, but not anything special. My son called new Yankee Stadium "soulless". My opinion is if you're a baseball fan and are in NY, it's worth the trip.
  21. Yesterday, Ricky Nolasco and the Twins were cruising to a victory against the weakened, but still hated, New York Yankees. A funny thing happened on the way to the winner's circle--the Twins gave up seven runs in innings 7, 8, and 9 and were beaten despite getting two homers against Chapman in the ninth.
     
    Here are some of the culprits: Kevin Jepsen entered in the eighth with a two-run lead and one runner on first and one out. He yielded the game-tying homer to Carlos Beltran, which gave the Yankees with their great end of the bullpen a huge advantage. 2) Ryan Pressly came in with the bases loaded and nobody out. He allowed the go-ahead run to score on a 3-2 fastball to Ellsbury, then wild-pitched the runners to second and third where the Yanks final run. 3) Fernando Abad who walked the leadoff batter and allowed a bunt single to Didi Gregorious setting up the Yankee's big inning. 4) Juan Centeno who failed to catch a low pitch and was charged with a passed ball and then partially blocked another pitch in the dirt, which still allowed the runners to advance. 5) Paul Molitor, who took Abad out instead of having him face a pinch hitter, then two lefty hitters and intentionally walked the number 8 hitter loading the bases.
     
    In my humble opinion, Centeno's mistakes, particularly the passed ball, can't be underestimated. If he wants to stay in the majors, he's got to block low pitches. Molitor's strategy was questionable. Abad has been his best reliever and very good against lefties. Asking Pressly to not only get out the pinch hitter, but both Ellsbury and Gardner is asking for a lot. Abad committed the cardinal sin of walking the leadoff hitter. He wasn't in good position to field Didi's bunt. Pressly was asked to perform a near-miracle and probably came close. If he didn't run the count full to Ellsbury, he might have gotten out of the jam. Jepsen threw a nothing off-speed pitch to Beltran, he had a 2-2 count and absolutely needed to keep the ball in the park.
     
    Here's my verdict: #1--Centeno. #2--Jepsen. #3 Molitor. #4 Pressly and #4 Abad (a tie).
  22. I spent Thanksgiving in New York City, visiting my son and his fiancée and seeing some sites. No, I didn't find Dave W, I guess I didn't look. Anyway, I did attend my first, and probably only, Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. We arrived early and found a place to stand across from Fox News. We saw the parades, floats, minor celebrities and Santa.
     
    A women standing next to me asked me if I was from Minnesota, since I was wearing a coat that said "Mayo Clinic" on it. She said that she had grown up in Hinckley and then moved to Scottsdale. We chatted for awhile and finally starting talking about children. She said that her son played for the Twins. I said "oh really" and shared with her that i was a Twins fan for life and that I often contributed to Twins Daily. She said her son was Aaron Slegers and that he was the tallest player in the Twins system--6'10". I remembered Slegers, but couldn't recall which Big Ten school he attended. She said he went to Indiana and that his catcher was Kyle Schwarber, who has made a name for himself.
     
    Aaron made it to AA in 2015, after having a nice season at High A Fort Myers. I really don't know if how highly regarded he is, but it does highlight the many players in the minors--how hard they work and the odds against any but the premium prospects to make it to the majors. After a 160 inning regular season, Aaron Slegers works out every day, but hasn't done any throwing and won't for a while.
     
    There were more events and a great turkey dinner put on by my son and his fiancée, but it is cool to have met someone with a connection to the Twins a long way from home.
  23. "You never know what you're gonna get" (from Forrest Gump), this little witticism also applies to baseball players. Every front office projects what their prospects will become, but it is never a sure bet. Consider two current Minnesota Twins: Brian Dozier came to the Twins as a shortstop, thought to be fundamentally sound in the field, but without great tools. As a hitter, he had never hit below .274 and never exceeded nine homers in a season, with his top year yielding at .320 average in a year split between advanced A ball and AA. Typical middle infielder profile. Sometime in 2013, the scouting report changed--Dozier has become a second baseman and a guy with a low batting average, but with the most extra base sock for his position in major league baseball. It could be argued that from the start of 2014 (or perhaps midseason of 2013) until the All-Star break in 2015 that Dozier put together elite numbers based on his power numbers. Overall, despite the low batting average and middling overall OBP, Dozier has established himself as a hitter based on his extra-base hits. Since 2013 he has compiled 105 doubles and 69 homers from second base.
     
    Now, lets look at Oswaldo Arcia: Coming through the system, the most used comp for Arcia was Bobby Abreu, a fine hitter with some power. Arcia hit his way throught the minors, always as a young player for the league. He topped out at 17 homers in 2012, splitting his season between A+ and AA and hitting a combined .320. As a Twin, Arcia has become a true home run threat, hitting 34 homers (including some prodigious long balls) in under 800 plate appearances in 2013 and 2014. However, the batting average and more importantly strike zone discipline have diminished dramatically.
     
    Both players have increased their power numbers at the highest level, but lost something in the transition. Dozier hasn't cracked .250 for batting average and this season set the club strikeout record. Arcia's K percentage is much higher than Dozier's and he seldom takes a free pass, in fact this year for the Twins Arcia didn't get a non-intentional walk (65 PAs). I think the Twins would be happy if both Dozier and Arcia became more complete hitters, even if it costs a few home runs. In Arcia's case, I think his time in Minnesota will end if he doesn't modify his approach (and results), while with Dozier, becoming someone who uses the whole field more often would be an adjustment to the adjustments that major league pitchers have used on him.
  24. The Twins current playoff probability according to Baseball Prospectus is just 7%. That seems low, given the fact that they only trail wild card leader Baltimore by 1.5 games and play the Orioles four games within the week.
     
    Here's a tale about the underdog winning. A young sophomore track runner has had a respectable season in the 1600 meters going into the conference meet. However, she hadn't beaten three older runners (one of whom went on to win the state championship) all year. On a cool, cloudy spring day the sophomore starts out in the lead, as the other higher-seeded runner settle into a trail position, eyeing the other favorites, while the young slender sophomore takes a big lead. Nobody challenges for the first half-mile. On the third lap, the favorites decide they had better start to challenge the leader. It takes a while to close the gap and after three quarters of the race, it looks like the younger runner will fade to fourth place as the three older, stronger runners are clustered within a few yards of the leader.
     
    Two challengers try to pass, but can't get past. The last major challenger waits until the last 100 meters, but the leader somehow has a kick left and holds her off as well. The sophomore runs her best time by 15 seconds. It is good enough to hold off the contenders she had never beaten before or after the one conference meet.
     
    This story has the advantage of being true, at least as I remember it. My daughter was a sophomore and stunned herself, her coach and her dad winning the conference race. If there were a prospectus for high school track meets then, I'm sure her victory percentage would have been lower than seven per cent.
     
    That is what makes sports fun!
  25. I was originally going to write about the Twins "June Swoon", but the news of Vargas' demotion followed by word that Miguel Sano would assume his spot on the roster makes last month's struggle old news. The Twins are above .500 so by loose definition they are contenders to make the playoffs. They have promoted three of their top prospects within the last month and it looks like this won't be the end of the moves.
     
    First, a look at positions, followed by a look at players. Center Field: The Twins have supplanted an injured and now released Jordan Schafer with first, Aaron Hicks and then top prospect Byron Buxton. Both are currently on the DL, with Hicks rehabbing and Buxton supposedly not due back for three to five weeks. I was really surprised when Hicks was not recalled following the injury to Buxton. Hicks has struggled a bit in his first games, but had three hits today. I have to believe Hicks is in Kansas City tomorrow when the Twins face the Royals. The future still belongs to Buxton, despite his struggles with the Twins. Hicks future seems pretty uncertain. The team has started three guys in center in the last week. Shortstop: When Santana was demoted about a month ago, it was assumed that Eduardo Escobar would get his chance to establish himself as the current shortstop. It didn't happen. Santana has returned and started a few games and Eduardo Nuñez has been at short more than Escobar. Jorge Polanco is still in Chattanoogs and committing too many errors. Starting rotation: Ervin Santana's suspension is up on Independence Day. His three rehab starts were very good. All five current starters have a pretty good claim to stay in the rotation. Bullpen: Alex Meyer was recently called up and in two appearances where the starter was knocked out early, has been pretty close to dreadful. The two non-closing left handed reliever have bad statistics and little chance for upside. Blaine Boyer seems to be weakening after a stong start. DH: Vargas opened the season as the regular DH, got demoted and then came back. He hasn't been a constant threat and has seen his playing time diminish. It appears that Sano will get a chance at DH.
     
    Players: Kennys Vargas-He wasn't a top prospect last year, but last year he forced his way onto the Twins last year. This year has offered major regression. Vargas had a brief demotion to AAA and today was sent to Chattanooga. Vargas needs to hit with authority and he's failed to do that. As mostly a pure DH (a game at first occasionally) the production has to be substantial. Oswaldo Arcia--He was injured and then optioned to Rochester. Arcia finally has started hitting, but he's been passed by by Eddie Rosario as an outfielder and probably Miguel Sano as a DH. The way back to the majors isn't clear. I would guess someone needs to struggle while Arcia lights it up. Eduardo Escobar--Last year's primary shortstop has hardly played the position. Danny Santana was given the job and when he faltered Escobar has gotten a few starts, but other have started many more. Most of Escobar's playing time has come in left field. He hasn't hit well enough to be a serious alternative in the outfield. Danny Santana--The Opening Day shortstop was demoted to the minors and only recalled when there were injuries. He hasn't hit well since his recall, and started the last two games in center field. Eddie Rosario--Rosario was recalled in May and now seems secure to stay with the club. He has adjusted very well to the majors, starting games at all three outfield positions. Aaron Hicks--Recalled after dominating AAA, Hicks played well in the field, but was at best only a #9 hitter. He was injured just as Buxton was to be recalled and is rehabbing in Rochester. Hicks could be on his way back to the majors as soon as tomorrow. Byron Buxton--The crown jewel of the farm system, Buxton struggled but showed obvious talent. He is slated to be disabled for probably another month.
     
    It appears that the Twins have settled on Rosario as a regular outfielder and that DH will be handled by Sano for now. Center field probably goes to Hicks until Buxton is healthy. I don't know who the shortstop for the rest of the year will be. I wish they would give Escobar a legitimate chance at this point. I think Santana needs work in the minors, along with Vargas and Arcia. That is some high quality depth

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