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stringer bell

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Blog Entries posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    September complaints about Twins lineups centered on two players--Danny Santana and Josmil Pinto. The fans remaining at Twins Daily wanted Santana to get reps at shortstop (and opportunities for Aaron Hicks) and they wanted to see the state of Josmil Pinto's catching ability. The fans were mostly disappointed. Santana mostly stayed in center field and Pinto only started eight games at catcher and left one of them before he either hit or caught. We will wait for answers (or at least more definitive evidence) in the spring.
     
    For his entire length of stay with the Twins in 2014, Pinto was a bit of a lightning rod. Many wanted him in the lineup every day either as the DH or catcher. Some are convinced that he can never be a regular catcher because he doesn't have the necessary defensive tools and skills.
     
    If anything, this season was evidence that as far as Pinto is concerned, it can't be a half-in half-out proposition. Due to injuries, Pinto got a lot of at-bats in April and his hitting was decent. He didn't catch much and he was noticeably less than adequate behind the plate. This meant fewer games catching, and when everyone got healthy Pinto didn't get at-bats at DH and was sub-standard behind the plate. He was optioned in June reportedly to work on his defense. I expected Pinto to be back before September 1st, but he didn't force his way back from his performance in Rochester and Kurt Suzuki had a career year.
     
    The controversy over Pinto concerns his offense and his defense. How good a hitter can he be with regular at bats? I think he could be very good. He is strong and demonstrated extra-base power for the Twins in his stints with the club. He also has a good idea of the strike zone and will take a walk. Pinto uses the whole field and has plenty of power to put balls over the fence. I think if he were given regular at-bats, he would be in the upper third of catchers offensively.
     
    Defensively, the slings and arrows come from all directions. He was 0-20 throwing out base runners in 2014. He has consistently graded out poorly when it comes to framing pitches. Pinto, after nearly a decade in the organization, has been called lacking in pitch calling and blocking pitches. That is a whole lot of things to improve upon! In watching Pinto throw, there is no question that his arm is strong enough to stay behind the plate. However, there is no question that his mechanics in throwing were screwed up before he was optioned to Rochester. It is certainly not all his fault that he failed to throw out a single base stealer, but on the other hand, he should be in line for more of the blame than any other individual. As for pitch framing, Josmil was the personal catcher for the thoroughly inconsistent Samuel Deduno, if there was one pitcher on the Twins that probably didn't deserve having borderline pitches called strikes due to total unpredictability it was Deduno. It stands to reason that Pinto's pitch framing numbers would be bad. I think game calling a being a coach on the field is in the eye of the beholder. For what it is worth, an ump said it was "night and day" as far as viewing pitches after Pinto returned in September and Kyle Gibson credited Pinto with calling a good game in both of his last two starts (both good starts for Gibson).
     
    I see good potential in Josmil Pinto's bat. I don't see anything that precludes him from being at least adequate as a receiver at some point. I do have a point and counterpoint. Pinto has been known as a hard worker and no one has questioned his work ethic. However, he has been in the organization since 2006 and he, by all accounts, has quite a ways to go to be a competent major league receiver.
  2. stringer bell
    "Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, shame on you". Aaron Hicks has been the starting center fielder for the Twins the last two Opening Days. He was a thorough disappointment in 2013, eventually getting demoted to AAA and not being recalled in September. With the bar set considerably lower in 2014, Hicks still fell far short of expectations and offered a lot of content for sports analysts with his supposed lack of preparation and short-lived decision to abandon switch hitting. Hicks spent much of this summer in New Britain and Rochester, but was recalled in September. Aaron got 70 plate appearances in September with the big club. There was talk of better focus and more confidence, but the result was something short of scintillating. Hicks hit .250 with a .648 OPS. His OBP was an entirely acceptable .348, but he had only three extra-base hits in those seventy plate appearances. My "eye test" observation was equally unimpressed. Hicks hit the ball hard only a handful of times that I can remember. Getting good wood on the ball is a part of his hit tool that seems to be missing to this point.
     
    On top of the offensive struggles, there have been whispers and inferences that Hicks is not committed to being a great baseball player. He skipped winter ball last year. He supposedly didn't know who was pitching one day and showed up late for a non-mandatory session with the training staff so that the manager felt he couldn't use him on that particular day. And then there is the switch-hitting debacle. Hicks has always been better as a right handed hitter. Many on this site thought the answer was simple--abandon switch hitting. Without consulting his manager and not discussing it with anyone else on the team, to my knowledge, Hicks decided to give up switch hitting. When it became obvious he needed work to have an acceptable chance against right handers and because he was able to rehab after a disabling injury, Hicks was sent to Double A and then optioned there when his rehab time ended. The idea was to work on the swing, but shortly after being optioned, Hicks went back to switch hitting. The platoon splits are pretty stark--Hicks' combined OPS was .615 but his OPS was .792 against left handed pitchers and only .512 vs right handers.
     
    To me, this is the contrast between tools and skills. Everyone remarks that Hicks has tools and he does--good speed, strong throwing arm, and big athletic body. The tools are good, but they aren't exceptional, except for maybe his outstanding throwing arm. The skills haven't caught up with the tools. Maybe they never will. I think Hicks' absolute upside is Austin Jackson--supposedly the next great all-around center fielder, who has been pretty good, but never an All-Star and a guy that hasn't become a high average hitter, accomplished power hitter, stolen base threat or Gold Glove defender.
     
    Given the Twins' dearth of outfield options, Hicks will most likely get another chance to make good on his potential. I maintain that what is best for his development and ultimately best for the team is to go to Triple A and build his confidence by dominating at that level. He has just turned 25 so there is a chance that he is a late bloomer who will thrive when he "gets it". The Twins, however, can't assume that he will. Fool them three times, shame on them.
  3. stringer bell
    Entering 2014, I had Eduardo Escobar pegged as a standard-order utility infielder. He was a switch-hitter with a pretty good glove, okay speed who had demonstrated the ability to capably fill in at short, third and second. There was some chatter that EE shouldn't make the Twins coming out of spring training, but most viewed him as a good fit for the utility infielder role. Some wanted to see "Eddie 400" in 2014--that is at least 400 at-bats to see what the still-young Venezuelan could do with more consistent playing time.
     
    The early season gave Escobar his chance. Pedro Florimon, already seen as a subpar hitter, got off to a woeful start and Escobar got several early starts at shortstop. The rest, as they say, is history. Escobar hit .357 in April and backed that up with a .322 (.865 OPS) May. Florimon was demoted and Escobar became the de facto starting shortstop. Escobar returned to earth in June and July--his average fell to .274 at the end of June--and then he stabilized. Eduardo finished with a .275 batting average and his OPS ended at .721, good for a 102 OPS+. The season qualifies as a breakthrough. Escobar had more plate appearances than in his previous three years combined (over a year and a half in the majors). Escobar set career highs in almost every offensive category and played solid defense at the three infield positions (metrics vary) and showed durability.
     
    Esco still has some issues. He struck out 93 times and walked only 24, keeping his OBP relatively low (.315). Many, including myself, doubt that he can replicate his extra base numbers (35 doubles among 43 XBH). Escobar is not a explosive runner and thus will never have excellent range. All of this limits his upside to about what he was this year. Escobar ended up with dramatic platoon splits. In just over 300 ABs, he had only a .654 OPS as a left handed hitter, while in 131 at-bats as a right handed hitter, his OPS was .877. It does appear that Eduardo has been a stronger RH batter throughout his limited major league career.
     
    If someone would have said going into the season that the Twins would have a young switch hitting shortstop who could field capably and be an asset at the bottom of the order, most Twins fans would have been ecstatic and guarantee the guy a starting spot for years, however Escobar's rise coincided with the emergence of Danny Santana, who has the speed and explosiveness that Eddie 400 lacks. Next year's role for Escobar is up in the air. He may revert to a 3-position utility guy, he could become a "10th starter", filling in for multiple infielders, but not having a specific position. Perhaps he can hold shortstop, if Santana stays in the outfield. If injuries occur, Escobar could slide in for whoever gets hurt.
  4. stringer bell
    Joe Mauer is a former MVP and a three-time batting champion. As a catcher, he has won five Silver Sluggers and three Gold Gloves. These are Hall of Fame credentials for a 31-year-old. Last year, Mauer was shut down after suffering a concussion. The symptoms were present until well into the offseason. Mauer and his advisors decided it was time to give up catching. With the exit of Justin Morneau, a move to first base was an easy call.
     
    I was among those that thought that Mauer would be able to play more games and provide more power as long as he abandoned catching. For the 2014 season, I was wrong. Mauer had a career-low .277 batting average and managed only 518 plate appearances. Mauer's OPS and OPS+ approached career lows, as well, and he managed only 4 homers, about one homer per 130 plate appearances. In addition, Joe continued a disturbing trend of increasing strikeouts. He fanned 96 times, about 18.5% of the time, compared to maxing out at less than 12 percent his first eight years in the league. His strikeout percentage has increased dramatically each of his last three seasons.
     
    Mauer suffered injuries, missing games with back spasms and an elbow injury and getting disabled with an oblique injury that reportedly bothered him for most of the rest of the season. It has also been reported that Mauer was rusty coming in to the spring because he didn't have his normal workout regimen due to the concussion. Combined with the adjustment of switching fulltime to first base, Mauer had an uncomfortable first half of the season. At the All-Star break, he was hitting .271 with a .695 OPS. Joe picked up the pace after the All-Star break. His OBP after the break was .397 and his OPS after the break was .805.
     
    Mauer had pretty dramatic platoon splits. Against left handers, he managed only four extra base hits and had an OPS of .654 (.776 against right handers).
     
    No one can dispute that Mauer's numbers were far below career norms. The question is whether he is going hard in decline mode or whether he can recapture his Hall of Fame worthy form from his first ten years in the majors. No one really knows and no one knows the extent of the injuries, including the concussion he suffered in 2013. My speculation is that Mauer has long been a premier player using his somewhat unique approach. I think that he now needs to adjust that approach. He needs to be more aggressive early in the count and find pitches to drive. He also needs to be stronger, so that some of his 360 foot fly balls turn into 380 foot home runs.
     
    Defensively, Mauer looked uncomfortable at first at the beginning of the year. By playing 100 games at first, he got more comfortable and became a pretty good defensive first baseman. All of that matters little if he can't come back and again be a top hitter.
  5. stringer bell
    In my book, Brian Dozier was the Twins best position player in 2013. He had a better year in 2014 and again I think he was the best everyday player on the team. Dozier is a study in contrasts--he isn't a big guy, but has led the team in home runs the last two years. He is a converted shortstop who has become totally comfortable as a second baseman. Most guys his size are told to "use the whole field", but he is perhaps the most pronounced pull hitter on the team, certainly among the right handed hitters.
     
    Dozier had an up and down season. He started slowly, lifted his average through June and then tailed off. Dozier hit a bunch of homers early and continued hitting an occasional long ball until the All-Star break. The power tailed off from there and he was stuck on 20 homers for a long time. He finished with 23 long balls and 21 steals, one of only a handful of Twins all time to reach 20 in both categories.
     
    One improvement Brian made throughout the season was his ability to take a free pass. He had 89 walks (3rd in the AL) and was hit by nine pitches giving him 98 walks to first base. Despite having nearly the same batting average, he increased his OBP by 33 points to .345. Dozier scored 112 runs (2nd in the AL), the most by a Twin in this century. He drove in 71 runs despite hitting first or second almost exclusively.
     
    Dozier's defense was highly appreciated by TD regulars in 2013 and there was a carryover into 2014. He did make more than his share of web gems, but he committed too many errors (15). Dozier is a better than average defensive second baseman, but he needs to fight the urge to try to make the spectacular play sometimes.
     
    While their personalities are polar opposites, Dozier reminds me of another Twins second sacker, Chuck Knoblauch. Each year Knoblauch added another facet to his game. Dozier added selectivity this year and I expect next year he'll be a better situational hitter or better bunter or perhaps win a Gold Glove. I think he has the desire to win and excel and the Twins need more of that.
     
    Dozier has solidified his position with the Twins. If he doesn't improve at all, he still is a better than average player who can win a game with his bat, his glove and his legs on the bases. His durability, power, and defense and the fact that he'll be under team control for four more years make him desirable to other teams, but I believe he has great value for a Twins team that may be on it's way up. I expect Dozier to have another solid year in 2015 and be a major contributor when the Twins again are contenders.
  6. stringer bell
    Kyle Gibson started the 2014 season in the Twins rotation and stayed in the rotation the entire season. He won 13 games, the most by a homegrown pitcher for the Twins since Kevin Slowey won 13 in 2010. Gibson had 10 starts in 2013 and was pretty much ineffective. He had a strong spring training and his competitors for the fifth spot did not. Gibson started 31 games, missing one turn for back spasms.
     
    Gibson's performance was wildly uneven. At midseason, he had racked up several outstanding starts and quite a few "no-chance" outings where the team was out of the game before Gibson left the mound, often in the early innings. Kyle sputtered late in the season, going from August 19 to September 23 without a quality start. His overall numbers are underwhelming, a 4.47 ERA, despite a 3.80 FIP, only 107 strikeouts and 56 walks. Gibson yielded only 12 homers and consistently induced a high percentage of ground ball outs.
     
    What has surprised me about Gibson is his lack of command. He throws a lot of pitches outside the strike zone and when hitters have the count advantage, they don't chase. Gibson's 92-94 mph fastball doesn't get by many hitters when they are ahead of the count. When he is hitting his spots, he can be extremely tough. Gibson allowed slightly less hits than innings pitched. His strikeout numbers increased as the season wore on, but ended up among the lowest among qualifiers.
     
    Most have granted Gibson a rotation spot for 2015. I would expect that he will be starting for the Twins in their first series. He threw almost 180 innings without any arm issues, and finished the tail end of the season strongly. Gibson turns 27 this month, so he's not really a young player.
     
    Most TD posters have labeled Gibson as a mid-rotation guy. I have always thought that he could be better than that. He has demonstrated dominating stuff when he has good command and Gibson is enough of a student to figure it out and become more consistent. I expect improvement for Gibson, in part because the team will improve and probably have a better defense behind him next year and in the years to come.
     
    I think Gibson will be a part of the Twins rotation when they are a playoff team. I expect he'll be a #1 or #2 by then.
  7. stringer bell
    Oswaldo Arcia finished 2014 playing in 103 games, mostly due to a wrist injury suffered early in the season. His statistics are similar to his rookie season in 2013. Arcia pounded 20 homers, but struck out 127 times in just 410 plate appearances. Arcia also hit .231 with a .300 OBP. The power is undeniable, but the combination of the large number of no-chance at-bats and below average defense has made Arcia less than a productive player.
     
    Arcia has been in the Twins' system for seven years. In his minor league career, Oswaldo had an OBP of .376 and a batting average of .314. His top home run season was 17 in 124 games, but home run power seems to be his primary asset as a major leaguer. I submit that his batting percentage and OBP have been a disappointment. He seems to be very fond of hitting long home runs at the expense of being a total hitter. Much has been made of a mechanical flaw but the problem is exacerbated by trying to hit the ball 500 feet. Oswaldo is going to hit home runs if he gets at-bats. He needs to be a more well-rounded hitter to get regular at-bats, not Adam Dunn minus the walks. Arcia hit below the Mendoza line against left handed pitching, with a .574 OPS. The Twins used 2014 as a training/learning experience for him, despite his paltry numbers. If he continues to struggle against southpaws, it wouldn't surprise me that the new manager will limit his at-bats against lefties.
     
    This year Arcia played exclusively in right field. He made more good plays and displayed a strong arm. That is the good news. He continued to make some bad misplays and missed cutoff men and threw to the wrong base far too often. I continue to see enough for Arcia to be an average or better defender, but he has to focus and work on his defense as hard as he works on his swing.
     
    Arcia has shown enough to have earned a lot of rope before he would be benched, platooned or demoted. He needs to make progress both at the plate and in the field to guarantee continued regular playing time in 2015 and beyond. I think he needs to have a much better two-strike plan. He is still only 23. Barring injury, Oswaldo Arcia will start 2015 as the Twins regular right fielder and will still be 23 years old. He is still a very raw player, often doing amazing and stupefying things in the same game. He has shown the ability to be an All-Star hitter in the middle of a contending lineup and then turned around and looked like an 18-year-old in he Rookie League. 2015 should be a big season for Arcia. If he progresses, he'll probably be a cornerstone of a fast-improving franchise. If he stagnates, Twins fans will move on to someone else to be their power-hitting right fielder (Adam Brett Walker anyone?).
  8. stringer bell
    The Twins 2014 season is over. It is hot stove league time, at least as far as my favorite team is concerned. Much virtual ink has been spilled discussing perhaps as many as a dozen key players. I thought I would blog about some of these guys and perhaps start a conversation. I will start with 2014 3rd Baseman Trevor Plouffe.
     
    Plouffe went into 2014 considered the "luckiest man alive" because top prospect and Plouffe's eventual successor Miguel Sano got injured early in Spring Training and was ruled out for the bulk of the season (actually the entire season). Plouffe came to camp looking strong and had a decent spring. He started out the regular season strongly as well. Trevor hit .307 in the month of April with a robust .892 OPS.
     
    Plouffe had his ups and downs during the season and hit the disabled list in mid-June. He played almost every day until he broke his forearm during the last home game of the season. He finished with a .258 batting average and .751 OPS setting personal bests for almost all offensive stats except home runs. Plouffe also had a positive defensive rating for the first time.
     
    One word summarized Plouffe's season--improved--every facet of his game seemed to pick up a notch. He walked slightly more, struck out slightly less, hit better with runners on base and set a team record for doubles by a third baseman. As noted earlier, Trevor made large strides in playing third base. He seemed more focused, better positioned, and seems to have mastered the barehanded pickup and throw.
     
    Plouffe has a reputation as a lefty masher and indeed he's always hit left handers better then righties, but this year he improved markedly against right handed pitching, recording an OPS of .738 against same-handed hurlers. Off the score sheet, there seems to be improved focus, a better approach when hitting and certainly more maturity in dealing with the ups and downs of a long major league season playing for a 70 win team. He seems to be one of the leaders of the team, quite a change from when he was first promoted in 2010.
     
    Plouffe's future remains cloudy despite his very good season. Sano should be back next year hitting home runs in the upper minors. He most likely will get recalled sometime during the season and would figure to displace Plouffe. I have always thought that Plouffe could move to another position and one outfield slot seems to be open. However, his strong season and relatively low salary (he'll be in his second year of arbitration eligibility) would seem to make Plouffe desirable to some teams.
     
    I think Trevor stays with the Twins this offseason. Sano remains a prospect and perhaps not a sure thing. Plouffe's RH bat is pretty valuable. If Sano does move up pretty early, it is quite possible that he will have to change positions. I think he could be a capable corner outfielder, although he probably would be pretty rough at first. My sense is that Plouffe is not done improving and that the best is yet to come for him. However, there is a distinct possibility that Trevor's best might come in another uniform.
  9. stringer bell
    Ricky Nolasco, Mike Pelfrey, and Tommy Milone have all had disappointing seasons for the Twins. Glen Perkins is having a rough finish to his season. The four pitchers named have all had injuries disclosed after they struggled. The cynics among us would all be of the opinion that perhaps the pitchers were using injury as an excuse for poor performance.
     
    Pelfrey started the season in the Twins rotation. He had a couple outings where he looked sharp, but would lose it and not be able to battle through tough innings. He was disabled with what seemed like a convenient and questionable groin injury. On rehab, Pelfrey had discomfort in his pitching shoulder, then had surgery and was lost for the year.
     
    Nolasco was a member of the Twins rotation from the start and ranked near the bottom of starters in hits per inning pitched, runs allowed and ERA. Nolasco mixed in a few good starts with a couple of so-so outings and a handful of no-chance disasters. Ricky was placed on the DL after a no-chance start in July with forearm and elbow tightness. Nolasco rehabbed and has been much better since his return, with three fine starts and one OK performance in seven outings.
     
    Milone was acquired from the A's for Sam Fuld after having a nice half-year with the A's, despite and early July demotion to the minors. He has had one decent start (his first for the Twins) and since hasn't been able to pitch five innings in a game. It was disclosed after his last disappointing start that Milone had a "dead arm" and needed to miss a turn. Since then, he has been slowed by a neck ailment and has missed his second turn. With only 11 games remaining, he may not get another chance to earn his first Twins victory.
     
    Glen Perkins was very good the first half of the year. He made the All-Star team for the second year in a row and has stayed on the leader board for saves while pitching for a last-place team. Perk has struggled mightily in the last quarter of the season. He has been unavailable after high pitch counts in consecutive games and then missed time with a sore neck. After his bad turn, Perkins' numbers aren't very good for a closer. According to sources, Perkins might be done for the season after allowing three runs in the ninth to the Tigers last night.
     
    Which brings me to the topic--were all of these injuries things that players deal with or were they used as excuses? The next question is, can we expect improved performance from these guys in 2015? It appears that Nolasco might be OK, given his last two starts. Pelfrey will have to prove himself in the spring and has no guarantees of a spot in the rotation. Unless Milone throws a couple of gems, he will be in a similar position to Pelfrey, but with having more recent big-league success. Finally, there is Perkins. For the last three years, Twins fans have had reason to be confident when he got the ball with a lead. Now, that will be an anxiety to be dealt with early in 2015.
     
    This assumes that all four will be pronounced "healthy" in spring training. Not a sure thing.
  10. stringer bell
    The death march to 90 losses continues today with another doubleheader, this time against the South Side Sox. Sixteen games remain in this frustrating season which produced one, maybe two, rotation pieces and some optimism that the Twins can score enough runs to be competitive. For the record, the Twins need to win 11 of 16 games to avoid 90 losses. Actually, if they did that it would be a bit more than cosmetic, since they are playing playoff contenders in ten of the last 16 games.
     
    My thoughts have shifted to 2015. Taking a quick glance at the numbers and having watched a lot of Twins baseball this year, I have selected five topics where the Twins need improved play and where the possibility exists that there can be improvement.
     
    1) Joe Mauer--The hometown hero has to return to being an All-Star caliber player. I don't know what it has been, but Mauer has been a shadow of his former self. His batting average is down 50 points, and his OBP almost as much. Some (myself included) expected a bit of a power surge moving to the physically less demanding position of first base and the reverse has happened. We've seen flashes, but no sustained great performance. Mauer has had a Hall-of-Fame career to this point, but this year has been pretty close to dreadful. I think he needs to both adjust and train like he never has before. He has to turn on more pitches, hit more balls over the fence and be stronger. Some have made the point that Mauer rested all off-season, waiting for the concussion symptoms to disappear. If they are gone, he needs to be both stronger and more flexible at 32 and I believe it can be done.
     
    2) Defense--The strib yesterday pointed out that the Twins defense was ranked 29th out of 30 in some measure. I think that is close to accurate and is almost totally on the outfield defense (and catcher!). There is currently a thread running about the defensive dilemma. I will say that both better athletes and more continuity will move the needle considerably. More reps for Arcia in right field and Santana at whatever position he lands should produce dividends. An improved pitching staff could improve run suppression better than any single defensive change. The crown jewel of the Twins' farm system is a center fielder who could graduate next year and make an immediate impact on the team defensively.
     
    3) Rotation--The Twins' staff was supposed to be improved this year. Despite a breakthrough for Phil Hughes, it hasn't happened. Supposed reliable innings-eaters have underperformed and been injured. It would be foolish to expect Nolasco, Pelfrey, and Milone to all bounce back to be acceptable starters or better next year, but it isn't out of the realm that one or two of these guys returns to better form than they displayed this year. Trevor May and Alex Meyer will get a chance at some time next year. JO Berrios isn't far away either. Better days are ahead, hopefully supervised by a different pitching coach.
     
    4) Home record--The Twins have won more road games than seven teams who have better records than they do. Where's the "home field advantage"? Part of this is roster construction--Target Field requires speedy outfielders and right handed power and the Twins haven't had enough of either. Part of that is attitude, I think. For some reason, the Twins don't seem to be convinced they should win every home game and haven't since 2010. Again, maybe a change in the field staff will instill this.
     
    5) Fundamentals--Know when to take a chance on the bases. Know which base to throw to, and set up and use the cutoff man. When there's a runner on third with less than two out, don't try to hit the ball 500 feet, especially with two strikes. The Twins have fallen off dramatically in all of those facets which encompass "fundamentals" and it has cost them in the W-L ledger. Good teams make the right plays at the right time. The talent is there, but the focus sometimes has not been. Again, perhaps a new voice will be able to get through to the players how to both play hard and be fundamentally sound.
     
    That's my five areas. I know there are more. As I wrote this, it occurred to me how nice it would be to have someone else calling the shots from the manager's seat. I guess this is my not-to-subtle call to replace the manager as well.
  11. stringer bell

    Embarrassing

    By stringer bell,

    The Twins have just been swept by the Angels. They were competitive for three games, but got beat up on Sunday. The fact is that, despite a fairly good offense in the five games, the Twins had no chance because the Angels are superior in all facets of the game. At least some of the young guys are playing and a few are thriving. Kennys Vargas is hitting and slugging and Danny Santana is established as a good hitter who has played center field more than his natural position of shortstop.
     
    In the last four years, much has been made of the Twins' continuing futility and much of this stems from non-competitive Septembers. It sure looks like the same thing is happening again. Of course, this year, as mentioned above, they are playing some guys who will be around when the roster is turned over. What is particularly disappointing is that there apparently is no one ready to help the pitching staff. We've seen Phil Hughes go out almost every time and give the team a chance to win, Kyle Gibson has faded a bit, but has been satisfactory. Beyond that? Well, Ricky Nolasco has one good start since returning from the DL, Trevor May has improved, but previously was historically bad, the team has gotten nothing out of Tommy Milone. The bullpen is in tatters. All the guys who have been with the team all year seem to be worn out. The late-season reinforcements have been underwhelming and these are the guys that will be getting the first chance if some veteran arms are let go!
     
    Maybe this gives guys like Jake Reed and Burdi a quick path to the majors. Maybe it is time for management to change. I have been embarrassed by my favorite team in the last four years and I just don't think it has to be this bad.
  12. stringer bell
    The Twins will probably lose 90 games this year. That doesn't mean that they will be making wholesale changes of their roster, at least not from the position player standpoint. After watching half of the Angel series, I'm convinced that all of the 13 position players that will head north out of Fort Myers are playing for the Twins right now. Most of the players are givens. A couple of guys will have competition and two of the jewels of the system will probably get their chance sometime in 2015, but what you are seeing is pretty close to what you will get in the spring of 2015.
     
    Here's my thirteen players: Regulars--Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe, Santana, Hicks, Schafer, Arcia, Vargas, and Suzuki. Bench--Parmelee, Nunez, and Pinto. You notice I listed ten regulars. I am visualizing Santana as a tenth starter, around the infield and outfield. Hicks and Schafer share with Santana in left and center.
     
    This is a young lineup (basically) with both power and speed. This is essentially the same lineup that is leading the league in scoring since August 1. If Hicks tanks again, there are alternatives. I have started a thread and stated in other threads that I like both Nuñez and Parmelee as bench players. I also expect that Pinto will gain more time behind the plate next year and that by the end of the season, he may be sharing time or better with Suzuki.
     
    With exciting guys like Sano and Buxton perhaps just a phone call away by midseason, one has to be optimistic about the position players. The pitching staff? well, changes have to be made.
  13. stringer bell
    Trevor Plouffe has been the Twins third baseman since the middle of 2012. He is the Twins' longest-serving starter at his current position on the team. That is a bit hard to believe, but every position has turned over since the Twins handed Plouffe third base out of desperation. Plouffe responded to his assignment by having a once-in-a-lifetime power surge. Most other parts of his game as a third baseman were substandard.
     
    Now, late in the 2014 season, we see a different player. Plouffe has improved his overall hitting and his defense. He has made far more good plays and botched far fewer routine ones. He has hit better with runners on base, he has hit better against right handers and seems fundamentally sound finally.
     
    For all the years that Plouffe has played third, he has been in the shadow of mega-prospect Miguel Sano. The question has always been "what do you do with Plouffe when Sano is ready". Of course, that is still a question. But I think there is a question be asked before that--is Plouffe a third baseman or is he a stopgap? Plouffe ranks behind three outstanding third basemen in the American League, but after those guys Plouffe rates with anyone else.
     
    He now looks comfortable at the position, he now seems to show proper instincts and is in the right place. The throws from third were a crapshoot are now expected to be chest-high and on line and most of all he takes his time when a catcher is running and makes the quick transfer and throw when a speedster hits a slow roller. I'm saying he no longer looks like a displaced hitter, he looks like a third baseman. Plouffe learned the position on the job. He hardly played there in the minors or until he was given the position.
     
    As a hitter, Plouffe still has some bad at-bats, but grinds through many more than he used to. He seems to have a better plan and the results have been better. He's not a high-percentage hitter, but he's had a bunch of extra base hits and in terms of production, he is one of the better Twins' hitters.
     
    I don't know if he'll ever get any better, but at 27 he's a pretty good player. For those who use WAR, he is at 3.2 with 20% of the season remaining.
     
    I have long thought that Trevor Plouffe could be a regular at another position and still believe he could be the Twins' next left fielder. However, I am not so sure any more that what I've speculated will turn out. Plouffe may have enough trade value to be shopped as an established third baseman. The Twins might be more prudent to hold on to Plouffe until Sano forces his way to the majors. At that point, they might be able to flip him for much more than I've ever thought possible. Congratulations to Trevor Plouffe for taking advantage of opportunities and establishing himself as a big league third baseman.
  14. stringer bell
    Dick Bremer broached the subject of outfield defense in tonight's broadcast. He spoke of the Twins' wishes to have more athletic, speedier defenders in the outfield, particularly the corners. As with most things Bremer says, I am sure he is clear that the Twins want the topic out there or he wouldn't bring it up. In my mind, this brings up the acquisition of Jordan Schafer, who is 27 and has shown superior speed (and base stealing skill), while being deficient in most other areas. The Twins are getting a good look at Schafer (33 PAs so far this month) and he has utilized his base stealing skill.
     
    Actually, Schafer has been rather impressive in an extremely small sample size. He is 9 for 28, six for six stealing bases, and has made no glaring misplays in the field. Once thought to be a top prospect, maybe just maybe, could Schafer become more than a pinch runner? There's always a chance. The Twins are due to strike gold on a player given up on by other organizations. They have had their share of times where a player develops/evolves into a good player after the Twins have given him away for little or nothing. It is time for some payback.
     
    In light of the merry-go-round that has happened in center field the last two years, it would be heartening for Schafer to be part of the solution to the problem. More likely, however, the best the Twins can hope for with a career .223 hitter (1280 PAs) is someone who hits enough to be a fourth outfielder. Having a fourth OF, who could player center along with the corners and who could be decent defensively and provide value as a pinch runner would be pretty good for claiming a guy off the scrap heap.
     
    Another fast guy is Danny Santana. He has been given over 250 plate appearances since being recalled in May, mostly because the Twins didn't have anyone else available to call up from their 40-man roster. Santana has spent most of his time in center, and although he had hardly played there, he has been an adequate defender and has hit surprisingly well. Could Danny Santana be the solution to the center field problem? Two months ago, I would have said "no way, no how", a month ago, "barely a chance" and now I'm thinking "if no one else is ready, why not?" Santana is still regarded as a shortstop by the Twins organization, but if 1) Eduardo Escobar continues to be an above-average shortstop and 2) no one steps forward in center, then Santana should start 2015 as the Twins regular center fielder.
     
    What about the prospects? The Twins have three guys who have been or still are regarded as top prospects for center field in the upper minors--Aaron Hicks, Eddie Rosario, and #1 prospect Byron Buxton--and if any of those guys seizes center field it will be good for the organization. Each has their question marks--Hicks has failed twice to hold on to center for the Twins, Rosario has flirted with becoming a second baseman, been suspended for street drugs, and is currently hitting <.250 at AA, and Buxton has had an injury riddled season and only played one game above Class A. There is a lot of talent there, but also a lot of question marks and no guarantees.
     
    The prudent thing to do IMHO is to open center field up for a wide-open competition in the spring. Unless he tanks dramatically in the last six weeks, Santana will be starting somewhere. It probably would increase his value even more if Santana would be an option in left field as well as center. Hicks and Rosario have gotten reps in the corners as well as center and if one of them step forward, perhaps they could be playing a corner OF spot. Left field could be a consolation prize for one of the guys trying to become the Twins' regular center fielder. Finally, if the hype is to be believed, when Buxton arrives, he will take over center field for as long as he is a Twin.
     
    Having an outfield with two fast guys being out there between Buxton, Rosario, Hicks, Santana and Schafer would probably go a long way towards improving a leaky outfield. It also could provide excitement on the base paths and give the Twins balance between power and speed. If Santana claims shortstop, there is one less contestant in the competition, but regardless, it would be nice to see range out of at least two of the three outfield positions.
  15. stringer bell

    Roster Issues

    By stringer bell,

    Over the past few years the Twins have made several roster moves which I would charitably call "puzzling". The addition of Matt Guerrier when the club needed multiple outfielders, the carrying of alternately three catchers or thirteen pitchers, the recall of Polanco from Single A, the recalls of Kris Johnson and Logan Darnell to start games when acknowledged better prospects are in Triple A are just some examples.
     
    I suggest that many of these decisions are based on a flawed 40-man roster. Some candidates worthy of promotion are not on the expanded roster, too many minor leaguers on the 40-man are not worthy of being in the majors, and too many marginal players on the active roster are frozen there because they can't be optioned to the minors. Several players who may have been optioned at one point can't be because they would have to be DFAed, and if they cleared they would have the option to declare free agency.
     
    Anthony Swarzak, Samuel Deduno, Chris Parmelee and Eduardo Escobar are all out of options. Escobar has cemented his status as a major leaguer and Parmelee may have, but it would have been in the Twins' best interests to demote either or both of the pitchers at some point this season. That is why next year, I am hoping one or both of pitchers is traded, non-tendered or released so that a player with flexibility (for example Yohan Pino) could take their place.
     
    The Twins were so thin in outfield depth that they were forced to use several infielders in the outfield this year. They have lost centerfield depth because the 40-man was filled and they attempted to designate players (Alex Presley, Darrin Mastroianni, Kenny Wilson) off either the active roster or 40-man.
     
    I respect Terry Ryan's ability to judge talent and I expect the next twelve months will be better in respect to roster issues than the past year has been. However, it cripples a team to have so little roster flexibility and the Twins need to do better.
  16. stringer bell
    We have just passed the midpoint of the season and the Twins are a season low seven games below .500. A big reason why the Twins are as good as they are is their second baseman, Brian Dozier. Dozier is currently going through his third slump of the season and the batting average is down to .232. His homers have leveled off and his OPS has sunk to .762. However, I think the first half of the season has been a success for Dozier.
     
    Brian leads the club with 15 homers and is second in RBI with 38. He has played all but two games and is the team's most dynamic fielder. He also leads the team in stolen bases and is a plus base runner. Dozier continues to lead the AL in runs scored with 60. How can a .232 hitter be leading the league in runs? Well, that is why Dozier's first half has been a step forward. Dozier has drawn 51 walks, third most in the American League. He has added the discipline needed to reach base via the free pass to his skill set.
     
    Dozier made a much-ballyhooed adjustment to his hitting over a year ago. To some extent the league has adjusted to his adjustments, but by adding to his ability to work the count and see a number of pitches, Brian Dozier has moved forward.
     
    I do believe that Dozier is guilty of trying to do too much. He hasn't been great in RISP situations, he's made more errors and he's probably made a couple too many aggressive base running mistakes. The best way to solve the over-aggressiveness is to have some help. If the rest of the team is making some plays, Dozier doesn't have to force the issue as much.
     
    I noticed that someone has put forward the idea of trading Dozier. I suppose if players were machines, it would be a good idea, but I see Dozier as a guy who will keep making adjustments to get better and a leader on a team that needs one. Fill up a team with Brian Doziers and you have a winner.
  17. stringer bell
    Right now, the Twins have a wealth of shortstop candidates. Conventional wisdom is that shortstops aren't platooned because working with the keystone partner is so important. Here is my view on the shortstops and my best guess to what will happen. I invite anyone else to comment and offer their opinion.
     
    1) Eduardo Escobar. Escobar is starting most games right now and why not? He's hitting over .340 and he's pretty good in the field. News flash. Eduardo Escobar won't hit .340 and he's not going to get 50 doubles. When his bat cools, we'll see how Gardy feels about playing Escobar every day. For whatever reason, Escobar has been tabbed as a utility guy and he is a versatile player. Defensively, he is a solid shortstop with good hands and a strong arm. He doesn't have great range. I think Escobar has earned this shot and I think there's a chance that he may succeed. Regardless, he has proven he is a capable utility player.
     
    2) Danny Santana. He has the range that Escobar lacks. Routine plays are a challenge. Since his promotion, Santana has played short and center field and demonstrated his blazing speed and strong arm. So far, he has also hit the ball great. Santana isn't going to hit .400 any more than Escobar will hit .340. In fact, if he gets a couple hundred plate appearances, it is really doubtful he be above average as a hitter. In his very short trial with the Twins, he hasn't shown he's ready to be a regular major leaguer, but he also has shown he has major league tools. A trip back to Rochester is nearly certain. Maybe he can develop into a big league regular with quite a bit more sizzle than Escobar offers.
     
    3) Eduardo Nuñez. He is the most established hitter of the group, but that isn't saying much. He currently has taken on the utility role that Escobar vacated. If EE slumps, I wouldn't be surprised if Nuñez gets a shot to prove that his bad defensive rep is an overstatement or not. I can't see Gardy going with one of the worst defensive shortstops for long, but then again we saw Plouffe and Nishi playing the position.
     
    4) Pedro Florimon. The manager is reportedly already missing his magic glove, but Florimon just didn't hit in about 70 plate appearances with the Twins, and hasn't hit at all in AAA either (and has already committed 5 errors--those minor league fields must be rough!). I think Florimon's peak as a hitter was what he produced the first half of last year and that is barely passable. He needs to put up some kind of offense to justify his recall.
     
    Down the road, there are others, but they are years away. I hope someone separates himself. Some are predicting that the Twins will draft a shortstop with their high first round pick, maybe that will the solution to the shortstop problem.
  18. stringer bell
    Danny Santana is a major league prospect. He isn't in the Twins' Top Ten and he isn't a Top 100 prospect in minor league baseball. Most players with his pedigree don't become stars, but some do and I imagine some become All-Stars and most likely some have become Hall of Fame players.
     
    Santana's strength as a prospect are his raw tools. He has great speed and a strong arm. His minor league stats have been unremarkable. Finally, he is a prospect in a position of need for his team.
     
    Santana was called up because there really wasn't any one else available. He was healthy and on the 40-man roster in a situation where there Twins were without a sufficient bench and had two players hitting below .130. What are the odds that a stopgap call-up stays in the majors and never looks back? I would say about 1 in a 1000 when the guy is a middling prospect as is how I profile Mr. Santana.
     
    I am a Twins fan and I hope for the best for my team. Against all odds, I am hoping that the Twins called up Santana at exactly the minute that he "got it" and that he would develop into a solid major leaguer.
     
    It appears that Santana's chance to thrive could come as an outfielder. That makes the chances of success even smaller than one in a thousand. I can hope for the best, but realize that it is a near certainty that Danny Santana will be back in Rochester long before the All-Star break. Maybe, just maybe, he'll defy the odds.
     
    By the way, hoping for Santana to defy the odds doesn't mean that I accept the Twins puzzling moves (I'm trying to be kind). Two straight years of center field struggles without adequate back-ups is only part of their problem. Carrying too many relief pitchers, falling in love with no-hit catchers and failing to be pro-active when injuries occur are pretty much inexcusable, if not inexplicable.
  19. stringer bell
    Brian Dozier wasn't a high draft choice. He had a breakout minor league season in 2011 and became a prospect for the Twins mostly because of the dearth of talent at shortstop, which was then his position. Dozier was then assigned to Rochester and got a promotion to the Twins after a hot start in Triple A. Brian's rookie season was by most measures disappointing and ended with a demotion back to Rochester without a September recall.
     
    2013 looked to be a year of decision for Dozier. He was moved to second base and given the inside track to win a starting position there for the Twins, which he did. After a slow start, Dozier hit well starting in mid-May and throughout the season he was a standout defensively at his new position.
     
    After watching Dozier for the better part of part of two seasons, I have become a big fan. As mentioned, with the position switch, Dozier has become a truly excellent defender, making web gem plays along with always being heads up on the field. He has developed surprising power, hitting 18 homers last year and already stroking 8 long balls this season. He has moved almost full-time to the leadoff spot and has shown far better plate discipline, ranking among the league's leaders in walks and he has scored runs--his 29 rank tops in all of MLB. Brian leads the club with nine stolen bases (3rd in the AL), but more than that he seems to have taken great strides in base running, aggressively taking extra bases, but not often getting caught.
     
    Dozier's game is not without flaws--he hit below .250 last year and is below that mark this year, he strikes out a lot. His season so far has some statistical oddities--he only has one extra base hit besides his home runs and all of his long balls are solos. Dozier only has 12 RBI despite the 8 homers.
     
    Brian Dozier is one of very few Twins players that is above average as a hitter, fielder and base runner. It seems that he doesn't go a game without doing something good at the plate, making an outstanding defensive play or showing good base running skills. The Twins need more players who can win a game with their legs, their glove, or their bat. And he's got really good hair!
  20. stringer bell
    Future Stars: Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton. Emerging Rookie: Josmil Pinto Revelation: Chris Colabello. Starter who Finally "gets it": Trevor Plouffe. Only player to establish himself in 2013: Brian Dozier. What do all of these position players have in common? They are all right handed hitters.
     
    Since the emergence of MVPs Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau the Twins have definitely leaned left. Perhaps not in sheer numbers, but the most feared and respected hitters were lefties. The story is that the White Sox took Chris Sale early in part because they knew they would have to deal with the M & M Boys (don't know if that is completely true). So far this year, on the offensive side, the good stories have been about right handed hitters.
     
    Is this a good thing? In part, I think it is. Target Field seems more suited for right handed power. The high wall in right has turned a lot of blasts into singles and doubles and perhaps the prevailing winds help when left field is the pull field. I also think that most good right handed hitters diminish their platoon splits. So far, Colabello and Pinto have hit better against righties than lefties (SSS) and Plouffe and Dozier have evened up their numbers after being much better vs. lefties last year. Also, Joe Mauer provides a conterbalance and he is signed for five more years. Promising hitter Oswaldo Arcia also hits left handed although he hasn't done much this year due to injury.
     
    The irony of this is that the Twins have hit markedly poorer versus left handed pitchers so far this year. Part of that may be attributable to facing Mr. Sale and Mr. Price, who figure to give just about every hitter problems.
     
    I can envision a lineup later in this decade with as many as seven right handed regulars. It would depend on some guys to develop and others to show this early season isn't a fluke. I never thought there would be a time that Mauer was on the team where the team would be so right handed.
  21. stringer bell
    The season is now 18 games old and some trends can be determined. The Twins are hitting .231 vs. left handers with an OPS of .670, while they have hit .261 vs. right handers and put up an OPS of .773. Looking at splits when the season is only 11% complete means that the sample sizes are really small, so there will be outliers. However, I think the numbers tell us something.
     
    Some items of note: Three right handed hitting regulars (Dozier, Plouffe, and Pinto) have reverse splits. All are hitting markedly better against right handed pitching than against left handers. Colabello also has a slightly higher OPS vs. RH pitching, but he's hit well against everybody. Going into this season, Dozier and Plouffe were thought to be lefty mashers, but so far they've reversed that trend. Pinto is only 3-20 vs. LH pitching, but two of his hits have been homers. The Twins two left handed regulars (Kubel and Mauer) have been better against right handers.
     
    All of the Twins switch hitters haven't hit much. Hicks, in full-time play, has a dreadful .139 BA and .395 OPS with a still-substandard .208 BA and .636 OPS vs. southpaws. Escobar is 4 for 11 vs. right handers (.727 OPS), but 1 for 7 (.393 OPS) against lefties. Florimon has been terrible across the board, but particularly against RH pitching (.115 BA, .409 OPS).
     
    The most substantial splits are Dozier (.942 OPS vs. RH, .454 OPS vs. LH), Kubel (1.006 vs. RH, .714 vs LH), Suzuki (.959 vs. LH, .707 vs. RH), Hicks (.636 vs. LH, .395 vs. RH), Pinto (1.057 vs. RH, .820 vs. LH) and Mauer (.755 vs. RH, .575 vs. LH).
     
    What conclusions can we draw from this? First of all, it is early and one good game can change bad numbers into acceptable numbers. For now, it looks like Suzuki should be playing against left handed pitching and that Pinto has no problem with right handers. If the numbers continued, that would set up a platoon of Suzuki vs. left handed starters and Pinto vs. the righties. The numbers say that Kubel should be platooned if a decent RH bat is available and that Colabello has mashed against everybody and deserves to be playing every day, at least until he cools off.
  22. stringer bell
    After a bit of a hiatus, here is the completion of my blog:
     
    6) Josmil Pinto--I was glad that Pinto made the club. Along with Arcia and Hicks, these guys are the start of a new infusion of talent that could and should make the Twins contenders again. It looks to me like Pinto can hit--he's advanced from Class A in the last two years and has shown that he gets it. His defense seems to be lagging, but he has the tools and the work ethic to become a decent receiver. Pinto has some power and has shown good plate coverage and patience. While I doubt he will contend for Rookie of the Year, I think he will get his chance to become a mainstay this year. I don't think the Twins should bother with DHing him much, but rather he needs to get more and more time playing the game. I'll be quite satisfied with 80-90 starts at catcher and a 100 OPS+.
     
    7) Chris Colabello--It appears to me that Colabello has the most tenuous hold on a roster spot since he has options remaining. Yes, he was the AAA MVP and yes, he has been strong during the spring, but he is 30 years old and last year he hit .194 with a 75 OPS+ in 181 plate appearances. IMHO, that is more than a cup of coffee. The Twins played him in right a few games, but he is really only a first baseman. I've said it before, but I will repeat that I can't help but be skeptical of a supposed power hitter who isn't able to pull the ball with authority. Colabello's story is heart-warming and shows that almost anything can happen, but I can't see him as more than a fringe major leaguer.
     
    8) Oswaldo Arcia--One of the key guys this year for the Twins. Despite some monumental strikeout numbers, Arcia showed good power. His minor league stats showed him to be a better percentage hitter. Arcia also has to improve in the field. It looks like he'll be the everyday right fielder so he can concentrate on one position. A more well-rounded all-around game would set him up as a key member of the good Twins teams to come.
     
    9) Pedro Florimon--The Twins got him for nothing a few years ago. He's given them more than nothing in return. How is that for damning with faint praise? Actually, Florimon proved in a year of full-time duty that he is a really good defender at a key defensive position. Offense? Not so much. He intrigues me because he has a little pop in his bat (9 homers) and good wheels. His splits showed a RH bat that was abysmal, although in the minors, he had hit better from that side. He strikes out too much and walks too little. AT 27, it is unlikely that he'll improve much with the lumber. I think he needs to concentrate and making contact and using his legs to get on more. He can be an asset with an 85 or 90 OPS+.
     
    10) Jason Kubel--I'm surprised that Kubel made the team based on his past season and his spring training. In person, Kubel's bat looks slow, but to me, Kubel's bat always looked slow except when he made contact. He's going to get some chances to play outfield and he's going to DH a lot. I am thinking his decline will continue, but perhaps there's something left if he's healthy. IMHO, Kubel is a Band-Aid solution to bad offense, but if he's healthy he will put up won't be an embarrassment.
  23. stringer bell

    10 Opinions

    By stringer bell,

    1) All baseball fans that have the capacity to visit Spring Training should do so. Hope springs eternal, but more than that, fans can watch drills and minor league games and scrimmages. At Fort Myers, we can sit next to minor league prospects, scouts, and knowledgeable fans. In past years, TR was on the premises and talked with fans sharing much more than makes the papers. It is great to watch both the top prospects and the most anonymous players. Autographs are fairly easy to get and the atmosphere is almost as warm as the weather.
     
    2) Joe Mauer is where he should be, batting third and playing first base. After the concussion, Mauer needed to get out from behind the plate. First base is the proper position for him to transition to at this point. Mauer is a three-time batting champ and former MVP--he is a great hitter. He needs to be able to have the best chance to hit and stay strong and being a first baseman fills that bill. Further, I think that by midseason Mauer will be a fine defensive 1B. He still has good reactions, has a long reach and is accustomed to digging balls out of the dirt and he has played more than 50 games at first. Catching has robbed Mauer of most of his speed and he wouldn't cover much ground in the outfield. Perhaps he could have moved to third, but Miguel Sano lurks and he has never played the position. The team's best hitter should hit for a little more power and in my book profiles as the ideal 3-hole hitter.
     
    3)A position player other than Buxton or Sano will develop into an All-Star for the Twins. DH Kennys Vargas, Adam Brett Walker, Danny Santana, and Josmil Pinto are some names in the upper minors. Vargas is drawing comparisons to Big Papi, Santana has shown an improved hit tool at a position of need and Pinto is on the cusp after a very good September audition. Walker is a strong, raw talent. There are many more talented prospects and I think someone will break through in the next couple of years.
     
    4)Pitching will be the strength of the Twins minor league teams. Signing three free agents has the side effect of packing each level with high quality arms. From Cedar Rapids to Rochester, the Twins will have guys who perhaps merit competing at a higher level. In other years, Tonkin, Guerra, Pressly, and the loser(s) in the fifth starter competition would be on the major league roster. Thielbar would be a lock most years, but it is possible he will be optioned to Rochester.
     
    5)Defense and lack of speed will be glaring weaknesses for the Twins in 2014. Florimon, Dozier, and Hicks have good, not great, speed. Most of the rest of the squad lacks speed and several are glacier-like. The gloves at third, left and right are below-average and it is probably more important for a pitch-to-contact staff that the Twins will field.
     
    6)The 25-man roster going north this year will change dramatically over the course of this year. Given the contracts of the players, some obvious replacements making their way up the ladder in the minors, and (finally) pressure from within to start winning, transactions are bound to happen. I foresee Willingham being traded before or at the deadline. Plouffe and Parmelee, among others, could be traded off. Several pitchers should be available out of the bullpen, plus Correia. The Twins also have the payroll space to add a veteran for a prospect to fill a hole (SS or C, perhaps DH or OF).
     
    7)There will be positive surprises. This is a karma thing. So many things have gone so wrong for the last three years, it seems only right and fair that the Twins have positive performances from unexpected sources. Maybe it will be Chris Colabello, maybe one of the Jasons, maybe a call-up like Danny Santana comes up and performs like an All-Star. Perhaps someone acquired in a trade will overperform.
     
    8)Power will be key. With little speed, questionable defense, and many questions about the pitching, the Twins need to slug better. They have guys--Arcia, Willingham, Plouffe--need to hit balls over the fence, hopefully with more than a few runners on. Many guys have OK or better power--Mauer, Pinto, Hicks, Dozier, Kubel, Colabello or Parmelee--so that if they hit homers, the Twins might produce a few more runs than projected and that could mean quite a few more wins.
     
    9)There will be debuts of significant players. I think we'll see Alex Meyer and Byron Buxton. Santana has a good shot to start his ML career and I expect the proceeds of a trade to get their first looks in a Twins uniform.
     
    10)We Twins fans will feel much more optimistic about the team one year from now.
  24. stringer bell

    Stasis

    By stringer bell,

    In most science fiction shows I have seen, somebody is in stasis (I hope I spelled it right and I am using it correctly). That means that the person or creature in question is in an unchanged state as time goes by.
     
    It is my opinion that the Twins basically spent 2013 in stasis. I expected at the start of 2013 the Twins would move some veterans, find out about some prospective regulars and start in the development of a starting rotation. None of that happened. almost all of what was unsettled going into the season is still unsettled.
     
    Ryan Doumit and Josh Willingham are still Twins and Morneau was on the team until September 1. The Twins have no more answers about their starting rotation than they did a year ago. Further, almost no positions have a regular. We Twins fans still have Chris Parmelee competing for a starting position and Trevor Plouffe as the nominal regular at third base. We don't know for sure if Joe Mauer will be the primary catcher, and we aren't sure who will start at any of the outfield spots.
     
    The aforementioned Plouffe and Parmelee are bigger question marks going into 2014 than they were heading into this year, along with Scott Diamond, Vance Worley, and probably Kyle Gibson. The team lost 90+ games again and really didn't move forward at all. Exactly one starting pitcher is guaranteed to be in the rotation next year and exactly one position player established himself as a major league regular. I find those results totally unacceptable for a rebuilding team. It makes 2014 a virtual certainty to be another losing season and has delayed the needed roster turnover until the coming season.
     
    I expected improvement this past season, whether or not it was reflected in the won/loss record. Instead we saw stasis.
  25. stringer bell
    I could call it mixed feelings, I could call it being worn down by all the bad news from my favorite team, or maybe it is that I don't think it will make much difference whether Ron Gardenhire was retained. I can't get too worked up about the move. I heard the news and didn't respond. Maybe I'm numb.
     
    About 10 hours later, though, I'm starting to think about the whole process. What did Gardy do to get two more years? In my humble opinion, there was more justification to extend him a year ago than there is now. A year ago I thought Gardy should stay, but coming into today I thought it would be best for the organization if someone else took the helm.
     
    What does this move say about the Twins Front Office? Is three years of dreadful baseball acceptable? The Twins had one player make significant progress this year on a team where there were opportunities for many to make a place for themselves for the long term. Is that okay? In what area or what level did the Twins make real progress?
     
    After hearing Terry Ryan making circular arguments about free agency which virtually guarantee that there will be no top tier signing from the Twins and hearing him brand play as "unacceptable" but have no real plan to compete, I can't be optimistic. It seems the whole plan is "wait for Buxton and Sano" and that isn't a plan, it is just hoping.
     
    Ron Gardenhire is a good baseball guy and seems like a decent human being. I respect Terry Ryan's knowledge of the game of baseball and his ability to find talent. I just don't think either man fits in rebuilding a pretty good franchise and developing a team that can win it all. I hope my opinions are wrong, but I have seen precious little to refute my opinion.
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