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stringer bell

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Blog Entries posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    There haven't been any exhibition games played yet, but all teams are in Spring Training and there aren't a bunch of free agents left to be signed. The Twins hope to bounce back from consecutive injury-scarred disappointing seasons and make the postseason. Here is my prediction for the 26-man roster that will play Opening Day in Kansas City on March 30th:
    Starting pitchers (5): Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Kenta Maeda. All five acquired by trade from other organizations. All but Ryan have injury concerns. First alternate starter figures is to Bailey Ober, with Louis Varland an Simeon Woods Richardson also waiting in the wings.
    Bullpen (8): Jorge Alcala, Jhoan Duran, Ronny Henriquez, Griffin Jax, Jorge Lopez, Jovani Moran, Emilio Pagan, Caleb Thielbar.  Alcala missed almost all of 2022 and it remains to be seen if he will be ready to contribute. The choices here for the last two spots in the 'pen are Moran (mostly effective last year with the Twins, less so in AAA) and Henriquez, who had a cup of coffee with the Twins after compiling less than dominant numbers in St. Paul. The choice of Henriquez is a pick to provide multiple inning outings from a bullpen member. Moran looks like he could take a step forward and be a late-inning arm, but he's not established. The last two cut (and two most likely to make the club) in my prediction are Trevor Megill and Danny Coulombe. Pitchers with options in the 'pen will most likely be up and down several times--that would include Megill, Henriquez and Moran and perhaps Alcala. 
    Catcher (2): Christian Vazquez, Ryan Jeffers. Really no competition here. The questions going forward are how will playing time be split up and if either Vazquez or Jeffers spends time as a DH. The Twins have three AAA catchers with major league experience--Tony Wolters, Grayson Greiner and Chance Sisco.
    Infield (6): Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Carlos Correa, Jorge Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano. There are injury questions around both Polanco and Kirilloff. If either one is placed on the Injured List, Nick Gordon and perhaps Joey Gallo might get some infield time. Barring injury, it would be huge upset for someone else to make the team at the expense of the six infielders listed.
    Outfield (5): Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Nick Gordon, Max Kepler, Michael A. Taylor. Gallo and Gordon might see some time in the infield. Buxton is coming off knee surgery and may be built up slowly this year. There has been much speculation about Kepler's future with the Twins, but he's still here. Trevor Larnach (also coming off an injury) will probably have the opportunity to play himself onto the team. If there is a disabling position player injury in Spring Training, I would think Larnach makes the club as a DH/corner outfielder. Also in the mix is Matt Wallner, who made his big league debut last year in September. 
    There is a significant amount of change from last year. I am predicting that five players will make their Twins'  debut in Kansas City. There will be injuries and many more players will see time with the major league club. As many have commented, there is depth in the rotation and among the position players. There will be injuries and the depth will be tested at some points through the season. A lot of players will get a chance to show their skills before the season is over. 
    There aren't many surprises listed in these predictions. Personally, I think that a nearly set roster is a good thing. I can't wait for the games to start and see what this group of players can do.
  2. stringer bell
    Some time after the All-Star break, I was pondering how the Twins could fit all of their quality major league position players on the active roster. A few weeks later, baseball immortals Mark Contreras and Caleb Hamilton were on the big club. Fast forward to a crucial five-game series in Cleveland and the Twins were starting Bailey Ober, Josh Winder (both coming off injuries) and having Louie Varland make his second major league start and Jake Cave and Gilberto Celestino were considered regular starters. The season unraveled quickly and now the Twins look likely to finish below .500 and in third place in the weak AL Central. How did it happen? I have several answers--there have been enduring issues all year exacerbated by a rash of injuries, most of them season-ending. 
    Offense underperformed almost all year. Going back to the start of the season, after a rocky first couple of weeks, the Twins offense was sufficient to win a lot of game despite never scoring runs commensurate with their underlying numbers. Right now, the Twins are 18th in runs scored despite being 11th in OPS and 12th in homers. They have often been futile with runners in scoring position and they have been a terrible running bases as a team. I have seen many posters state that the team is terrible at fundamentals. I would submit that all teams draw their fans ire for not advancing runners and "beating the shift". Part of these problems is the way the Twins are built. They lack team speed and their is a lot of swing and miss in their collective game. With the changes made to limit homers, the Twins (IMHO) have suffered disproportionately. 
    Pitching regressed after overperforming early. The Twins seized first place in late April and held on to the top spot for most of the season bolstered by a pitching staff that performed better than expected. Despite seemingly having at least one and usually two or more guys in their rotation that were locks to go no more than five innings, they won a lot of games and obvious weaknesses at the back end of the bullpen were not evident in the win-loss record. Things unraveled here in slow motion. The failure of anyone but Jhoan Duran in late innings cost games (particularly to Cleveland). The extra innings assigned to the bullpen showed the lack of depth that so many short starts demanded. Back to statistics--the Twins currently are right in the middle of total runs allowed stats. Underlying stats (WHIP, Opponents BA and OPS and BB and K numbers) come out slightly below the mean. I think team defense has been slightly better than average, which has helped keep runs allowed acceptable. 
    Injuries (oh my!). The Twins lead the AL in total man-games on the Injured List. They went into the season with one player slated to miss time, so it isn't like there were a bunch of players already on the IL. Some of the injuries could be expected and put on the front office. The Twins obtained several pitchers with injury issues and this season have come up snake eyes with most of them missing significant time. 
    There have been plenty of position player injuries as well. Regular players Ryan Jeffers, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler have all missed significant portions of the season. Carlos Correa also missed over 20 games with COVID and a badly bruised finger. We all know Buxton hasn't made it through a season without spending time on the IL. The other guys would figure to be healthier than they have this year. 
    Dick Bremer characterized the Twins as developing a "slow leak" from June through August. The leak has been accelerated in the month of September and injuries are a factor in that. That said, even without the injuries, the Twins' flaws probably were too big to win the division. The club exhausted their depth and seeing Jermaine Palacios, Mark Contreras, Caleb Hamilton, Sandy Leon, Aaron Sanchez, and (second half) Devin Smeltzer "perform" in key situations just shows that the Twins have scraped bottom.
    I think some roster turnover is necessary. Among the position players, they need more guys who make contact, are better base runners and who have more speed. They need more left-right balance in corner outfielders. The front office needs to adjust their focus and bring in more durable players. It should be noted that the position players they brought in (Urshela, Sanchez and Correa) have been basically healthy. The problem has been with the pitchers. 
    I think there is too much talent to tear it down. If the club fails to compete next year, it is probably time to try something else, starting at the top. It won't be easy to win the Central next year, but there needs to be significant progress and better health.
     
     
     
  3. stringer bell
    The Twins will soon officially have a shortstop vacancy. Carlos Correa has informed the media (and I presume the Twins) that he will opt-out of the second year of his contract. One possibility, Jermaine Palacios, has been DFAed and claimed by the Detroit Tigers. The Twins have shown no tendency to use in-house options Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon or Gio Urshela as a regular shortstop. Brooks Lee hasn't been with the organization a year out of college and looked pretty rough on defense in the minors.
    In addition, the Twins have shown a real lack of speed and base running ability. Finally, having a guy who is capable of playing center field in Byron Buxton's absence and filling in at the outfield corners would be ideal. I'm talking about a better hitter than Gilberto Celestino. 
    So, who am I calling on to step up? Austin Martin, of course. The guy was formerly listed as the Twins' top prospect and he played shortstop most of the season in Wichita. Regardless of his ability to play short, he has outfield experience and the requisite speed to cover center field. Moreover, he has profiled with excellent ob=base skills and was among the minor league leaders in stolen bases. Martin has exactly the skills that the club needs to add. Martin will have a chance to show what he has to offer in the Arizona Fall League.
    Obviously, Martin has a lot of making up to do. He hit and fielded poorly at AA for Wichita. He has slipped down the prospect ratings because of his performance and he hasn't found a power stroke. I don't hold any illusions that it would be a huge surprise for Martin to vault himself into  contention for an Opening Day spot particularly as a shortstop. I am saying that he has the particular skills that give him a path for quick advancement to the major leagues. It is all there in front of him.
    A more likely scenario for Martin would be for him to impress sufficiently that he would be in line for a recall either as an infielder or outfielder at some point during the 2023 season. I will be checking the AFL results in the hope that Austin Martin can restore his prospect status and eventually be a contributor for the Twins.
  4. stringer bell

    Thoughts on 2023

    By stringer bell,


    2023 early outlook
    Manfredball will be in full swing in 2023. No more shifts, a pitch clock and bigger bases. The Twins will need to adjust to the changes and they will probably have to adjust more than most. The larger bases will make infield hits and stolen bases more common. The Twins will need to find a way to get more speed in their lineup and to be better base runners. They have been dreadful running the bases and have yielded oodles of stolen bases and that is not all on their catchers. At the very least, adding players with plus speed will be needed and a renewed emphasis on elements of "small ball" will have to be done.
    I am looking to 2023 because I believe the 2022 season is basically over. A large number of the Twins' top position players aren't playing (Buxton, Polanco, Kepler) and many viewed as emerging (Jeffers, Kirilloff, Larnach) aren't playing either. Carlos Correa has been an offensive disapointment. Add in that Max Kepler and Gary Sanchez have been playing at replacement player level and it is a near miracle that the Twins are still in a pennant race. They've had plenty of help from Cleveland and Chicago, but it appears to me that it will be a surprise if the Twins finish higher than third in the weak Central Division.
    I think there will be enough talent for the Twins to contend in 2023. A bullpen that includes Jhoan Duran, Jorge Lopez, Caleb Thielbar and Griffin Jax will be a far cry better than the bully that began the season in 2022. Add in prospective starters Joe Ryan, Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle and later Chris Paddack with guys like Louis Varland, Simeon Woods-Richardson, Josh Winder and Bailey Ober ready to step in, perhaps there wouldn't be as many short starts and so much pressure on the bullpen. 
    There is position player talent as well. Jose Miranda has shown himself to be a major league hitter with perhaps a ceiling of star, Nick Gordon has developed into a competent major leaguer with positional versatility. Jeffers, Larnach and Kirilloff showed glimpses of what they could be before they were sidelined by injuries. Byron Buxton played most of the season on one leg and yet was valuable. If only he could get his health right for a season, the Twins become a different team. If Correa comes back, he is a fine ballplayer at a crucial position. If not, the Twins have sufficient funds to upgrade the team (pitching staff or position plauers). It is obvious that there will be more injuries, hopefully not as much as 2022, and also that some players will no longer be Twins in the coming year. 
    Circling back to the mark that Commissioner Manfred has made on baseball, with a new Collective Bargaining Agreement in place, MLB is now going to recognize minor leaguers as a union. My fervent hope is that minor league players will get upgraded treatment in future years. Time will tell on that.
  5. stringer bell

    Frustration

    By stringer bell,


    Injury List
    I just fed my obsession by playing golf for about the fifteenth day out of sixteen. Well, it wasn't pretty and I left the course pretty frustrated. Before I got home, I had a chance to read the latest on Twins Daily and Major League Trade Rumors. The Twins will face the high-flying Yankees with three red-hot pitchers going for the Evil Empire. The Twins will counter with Cole Sands, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy. I don't think I've ever seen such a lopsided matchup in favor of the visiting team when both teams are leading their divisions. Ever.
    As frustrated as I am with my golf game, the Twins continuing use of the Injured List and granting days off for their most dynamic talent provides me and plenty of other Twins fans with continual angst. It is like they are trying to win with one arm behind their back. 
    Let's examine the components of my frustration; Injured List (pitchers)--A key bullpen arm (Alcala) has missed two months with an arm issue. That happens and all teams run into that on occasion. A marginal projected contributor (Dobnak) has missed the entire season so far and isn't close to coming back. Again not unexpected and all teams run into this. Currently, Gray (pectoral), Ryan (COVID) and Ober (groin) are all out. This is where the frustration builds for me. These aren't arm injuries and both of the injuries were borderline enough that the player wasn't disabled immediately. It seems that maximum caution has been used in all three cases. But these three are the top three starters on the team and none of them will face the Yankees this week. Beyond the immediate frustration is the fact that the team has been very conservative in extending the starts of all of their starters, yet here come the injuries. Add the cherry on top of a COVID case for their top young starter that has caused him to miss about three weeks and you start to wonder, what will happen next. One (frustrating) thing we can count on--there will be more short starts when the Injured List guys return to the rotation. Again, it seems that it is a constant, not the exception. 
    Part two--position players. Having players who are breaking out miss time to injury and illness happens, but the Twins seem to have that as a rule. Gilberto Celestino, Kyle Garlick, Trevor Larnach and Royce Lewis all seemed on the way to proving they were valuable major league players and all were detoured to the injured list for a period of time. The Buxton management scheme seems to have accomplished one thing--make Byron Buxton an ordinary ballplayer. We've seen little of the blazing speed (don't "open it up" unless you absolutely have to) and he's no longer even causes anxiety for teams when he's on base. Buxton has only played about half the time in center field and when I last looked, he wasn't even a plus defender this year (that is a big portion of his value). Buck has hit homers at a prolific rate, but he's not getting on base enough and, as mentioned, he is not displaying many of his off the charts tools. Next Carlos Correa. After a slow start, Correa has shown himself to be a premium player, but because of a bad bruise when he was hit by a pitch and a case of COVID, he will have missed over a third of the Twins games to date when he returns. The COVID absence wouldn't have been so bad, but his heir apparent was hurt the day before he was diagnosed, so the Twins have used a career minor leaguer as their shortstop (Palacios has looked like a big leaguer. Good for him!). 
    From what I can tell the Blue Jays have all of their top position players and top starters healthy and playing every day. Same for the Yankees. Since the middle of April, that hasn't been the case with the Twins. Why can't we have nice things? Agree? Give some feedback if you'd like. Go Twins!
  6. stringer bell

    The Merry Merry Month of May

    By stringer bell,


    Statistics
    The Twins finished the month of May with an 18-12 record. Given the schedule they faced in that month, 18 wins isn't exactly dominating. They closed with a 4-5 record in their last nine games playing bottom-dwellers in those last games. 
    Here are the stats for May per ESPN. https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/name/min/split/41/table/batting/sort/OPS/dir/desc  and  https://www.espn.com/mlb/team/stats/_/type/pitching/name/min/split/41      
    Just a few highlights. Luis Arraez, Trevor Larnach, and Gary Sanchez had fine months. Arraez was an OBP machine. Trevor Larnach had a fine month, but only played in 16 games due to injury. Lowlights: Buxton, Jeffers, and Miranda. Pitching highlights included excellent months from Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Devin Smeltzer and Jhoan Duran. Disappointments included Chris Archer and Yennier Cano. 
    The team outscored their opponents 137-120. The hitters walked 105 times, while Twins' pitchers walked 83 hitters, they struck out 256 batters while the hitters struck out 231 times. The Twins allowed 249 hits while getting 266 hits from their offense. The home run discrepency was 30-27 in favor of the Al Central leaders. 
    Looking at stats provides a little longer view of the season and the month. My view of the month was that there were some interludes where they were very good, but they finished the month playing less than their best. Injuries and COVID-19 have flipped the roster sideways. Byron Buxton needs to either get right or get well and the pitching staff needs health or reinforcements.
  7. stringer bell
    Twins fans can take a breath and be very satisfied with where the squad is in the standings and how well they have played in the last 10 games. A 9-1 record in the last 10 games tends to relieve our anxieties. However, I think it is human nature to find something to worry about. Befitting the Twins 13-9 (good, not great) record, there are things to worry about--Miguel Sano's poor start, unsustainable success from youngsters and reclamation projects in the starting rotation and, of course, injuries. My greatest concern is the back end of the bullpen. 
    With the expanded rosters, the bullpens have been both used more and used differently in April. The roster will be reduced by two today and pitching staff will be limited to 14 after today's game. So far, the disappointments have been confined to veterans. Tyler Duffey failed in a save opportunity and took a loss when he entered a game in the middle innings with a lead and gave it up. Caleb Thielbar has strung together several poor outings, featuring his lack of command--both walks and falling behind in counts--and although his numbers are okay, Emilio Pagan has given up a lead and had two ulcer-inducing saves as the de-facto closer. The title of this blog entry points out that all three of these guys are over 30. I do want to point out that two other 30+ bullpen guys have been very good--Danny Coulombe and particularly Joe Smith.
    I think that the track records of Pagan, Thielbar, and Duffey will allow their manager and pitching coach to give them some rope. Duffey and Thielbar started slowly in 2021, but performed better as the season went along. Pitching for San Diego, Pagan went the other way, as did practically the entire team. Duffey and Thielbar haven't closed games regularly. Pagan saved 20 games for the 2019 Rays and seems to be the preferred option for the manager right now. It doesn't make sense to me to trust any of these guys unconditionally at this point. Jhoan Duran would seem to be an obvious answer and perhaps Jorge Alcala could provide another reliable high-velocity arm in the second half of the season. To me, the Twins need to add someone to the mix that isn't on the roster right now. 
  8. stringer bell

    Where We Stack Up

    By stringer bell,


    Early statistics
    As I occasionally do, I checked MLB statistics today. I wanted to see how the team stacked up to the rest of Major League Baseball. Most teams have played about 10 games, so we have an idea of trends, although some things are out of whack. Baltimore has good pitching? Cleveland has the top team BA in the American League? Nah, those things won't last. What about the Twins? Well, with a 4-6 record and and -6 run differential, I figured the Twins would profile poorly on offense and middle of the road on the run prevention side, Here's what I found.
    Pitching. Far from a disaster, but not league average. The Twins are 20th (of 30) in team ERA and 15th in runs per game. That difference is explained by only allowing three unearned runs despite 8 errors in 10 games. They haven't played any extra inning games and unearned runs really happen there due to the "ghost runner". Other stats--23rd in walks per nine innings, 21st in strikeouts per nine innings, 15th in Opponents Batting Average and 20th in WHIP (walks and hits per inning pitched). The starting staff has been better than expected, but the bullpen ERA is over 4.50. This looks like pretty good luck to this point--they're allowing more balls than average to be put in play, walking more than league average and still at the median for allowing base runners and runs.
    Hitting. The only stat where the Twins are significantly better than league average is home runs. They are sixth in the league in homers per plate appearance. Other key stats--third in strikeouts per plate appearance, 25th in team OPS, 22nd in runs per game. Hitters are more predictable and projectable that pitchers. The Twins have been projected to be a good offensive team, probably enough to make up for their pitching deficiencies and hang around .500, so far that isn't the case. 
    To summarize, it is early. The offense has been a major disappointment, but will improve. Pitching has been better than expected, but there are some number that predict a downturn. After playing three straight 90-win teams (from 2021), the Twins will face a less daunting schedule in the upcoming weeks. Hopefully, the record and stats improve over that time.
  9. stringer bell

    The (Almost) Complete Opening Day Roster

    By stringer bell,


    Opening Day Roster
    As of this moment there are 30 rostered players and 1 non-rostered player in camp for the Twins. Of the rostered players, Jovani Martin has been told he would be optioned to St. Paul and Cory Stashak will stay in Florida and go on the Injured List. That includes 16 pitchers and 13 position players. The non-roster player is Kyle Garlick, who got a year's service time last year as a backup outfielder who was later injured and never returned to the major league active roster. I assume that the Twins will, in fact, carry 16 pitchers and will either sent Garlick directly to St. Paul or DFA someone and demote Brent Rooker. Either way, the squad will have to be down to 13 pitchers four weeks from today.
    First of all, this is quite a makeover from the squad that opened in Milwaukee just over a year ago. The starting rotation is 100% turned over, and there are four holdovers in the bullpen. There will be a new DH and new starters at catcher, shortstop, third base and left field. If healthy, three of the Twins starting players project to be elite (Correa, Buxton) or well above average (Polanco). Two highly regarded graduates of the Twins' farm system figure to make their first Opening Day starts, two former All-Stars look to rebound as well as two solid performers in past years who fell on hard times in 2021. There are a lot of ifs, but there is a chance that the lineup can be outstanding. 
    The pitching staff features a rotation where Sonny Gray is the best bet to succeed. After him, the next two guys, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, both started last year in the minors. They combined for 17 big league starts (12 by Ober). The other two guys in the rotation as of today are reclamation projects, roughly equivalent to last year's acquisitions of Matt Shoemaker and JA Happ. The bullpen is a mish-mash of proven arms, potential, journeymen, and converted starters who may or may not last beyond May 1. Probably all year the bullpen will be asked to contribute more than four innings per game, making a 13-man staff a necessity for the bulk of the season. Maybe the most encouraging thing about the pitching staff is the talent in the upper minors, both starters and relievers, so that the Twins might be able to weather a rash or injuries or ineffectiveness from the guys currently on the active roster.
    Most fans who more than casually follow the Twins view the pitching staff with concern (I know I do), but I see several other several other stumbling blocks/question marks that must be hurdled in order for the Twins to have a successful season (make the playoffs and win at least one game). 1) Betting big on unproven talent. Ryan Jeffers played in 85 games last year and compiled almost  300 plate appearances. He did not break the Mendoza Line (.199) and had a puny OPS of .670. The Twins see Jeffers as a better hit-tool version of Mike Zunino, and maybe he will deliver that kind of production. Alex Kirilloff was a Twins' #1 draft choice. He profiles as a fine hitter and excellent defensive first baseman. So far, he's suffered a lot of injuries and only managed about 230 plate appearances for the Twins. It remains to be seen if the wrist he injured earlier, which eventually shut him down for the season will hold up. If so, the Twins think he could be a combination of Will Clark and Mark Grace as a long-term first baseman. High projection--hit like Will Clark, field like Mark Grace. Low (but healthy) projection--hit like Grace, field like Clark. Kirilloff is a work in progress as an outfielder. There's a gamble in counting on either or both of these players for 2022. 2) The Gary Sanchez Problem--Sanchez had fallen out of favor with the Yankees due to his subpar (I'm being kind) defense and falloff at the plate. He profiles similar to Jeffers as a hitter and offers insufficient value as a DH. Sanchez will get an 8-figure salary in arbitration so it is unlikely that he will only be in the lineup once or twice a week. The Twins already have enough DH candidates so Sanchez clogs up that position. Today, the Twins DFAed the third catcher on their 40-man roster, so it is likely that Jeffers and Sanchez will be the only catchers on the club, at least for now. 3) As a roster, the team is long-ball dependent and will strike out a ton. Sano and Sanchez, in particular are noted for high K percentages. Team speed is another issue. Buxton is one of the fastest players in MLB and Nick Gordon's wheels are perhaps his best asset, but beyond that there are a lot of glaciers in the lineup. 4) Too many DHs. Many are calling for Luis Arraez to be the DH a majority of the time in 2022. He is a man without a position, functional at second and short. Miguel Sano has played first base for two seasons, including the COVID year and has shown to be well below average (again, being kind) at the position and, as mentioned earlier, Sanchez figures to get DH at-bats as well. Brent Rooker is another in the mode of Sanchez and Sano--right handed hitter, plus power, low contact, poor defense--giving the Twins far too many guys to stay off the field defensively.
    I wouldn't be surprised to see another move or two before the team lines up on Opening Day. Adding an outfielder who could hit left handed pitching and play above-average defense in left field would be good. The door is also open for better pitching than the current crew. We will have answers in three days. It's always good when baseball is back. 
  10. stringer bell
    After the lockout, big trades and a huge free agent signing (who knew Joe Smith would be available?), the Twins are zeroing in on Opening Day 2022. They will carry 28 players for the month of April, allowing additional ramping up for pitchers. I don't claim to all-knowing, but I have listened to and watched Twins baseball since Calvin moved the team to Met Stadium. The roster I'm predicting will include 15 pitchers, about as many as the Twins used in some full seasons in the 60s. Okay, here goes:
    PITCHERS: 15--Five starters, three openers/multi-inning, seven bullpen. Starters--Sonny Gray, Dylan Bundy, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Josh Winder. Comment: There is still a decent chance that the Twins will add a rotation piece either by trade or free agency. I hope they do. This would appear to be the year that a pipeline to the majors is established with prospects graduating to fill rotation spots long-term. Openers/Multi-inning relievers--Griffin Jax, Lewis Thorpe, Jhoan Duran. Comment: This is the group impacted positively by the expanded rosters. All three have been primarily starters since coming to the Twins organization. Due to ineffectiveness and a closing window, Jax and Thorpe have been designated relievers (Thorpe is also out of options) and Duran is coming back from a season where he logged less than 20 innings. Duran is a top prospect who might have 2022 as a bullpen year and then return in 2023 as a starter or he may become a full-time reliever now for the balance of his career. Bullpen--Jharel Cotton, Jhon Romero, Tyler Duffey, Joe Smith, Caleb Thielbar, Jorge Alcala, Taylor Rogers. Comment: Cotton and Romero are pure guesses for two spots in the bullpen. Cody Stashak and Jovani Moran are also candidates among the rostered pitchers. A non-roster guy or two could be a candidate to take a spot, but the Twins have a stacked 40-man roster for now. In particular I've liked what I've seen out of Juan Minaya since midsummer of 2021. Barring injury, at some point in 2022 he will be pitching for the Twins. I just don't think he will be there on Opening Day. 
    CATCHERS: 3-Ryan Jeffers, Gary Sanchez, Jose Godoy. Comment: Godoy makes the club as a third catcher because I think Gary Sanchez will be used fairly often as a DH. Rocco doesn't overuse catchers, he'll basically alternate Jeffers and Sanchez behind the plate, but if Sanchez is DHing as much as 25% of the time, having a third catcher would make sense. Godoy appears to be functional, but not a candidate for everyday play. 
    INFIELDERS: 6-Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Luis Arraez, Carlos Correa, Nick Gordon, Gio Urshela. Comment: Top prospect Jose Miranda doesn't make it here, although after last year's breakout, he really should. I've listed Kirilloff as an outfielder, he'll also get a lot of time in the infield. Gordon might log some time in the outfield as well. Four players at second, short and third--Arraez, Polanco, Correa, Urshela--should cover almost all the starts leaving Gordon without much playing time. Sano will DH a considerable amount.
    OUTFIELDERS: 4--Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Byron Buxton, Max Kepler. Comment: Brent Rooker misses the cut here in my estimation due to his lack of flexibility and fielding deficiencies. Larnach is the better defender and hits left handed. If the Twins are using Sano at DH (and Kirilloff at first) it opens considerable playing time for Larnach in left field. I also wouldn't be surprised to see the club pick up a right handed outfielder, who can run and play defense to add to the Opening Day roster. 
     
     

  11. stringer bell

    Settling in at Shortstop

    By stringer bell,


    Shortstop
    The Minnesota Twins are completing one of their most disappointing seasons in their history in one week. While they will only win around 70 games, they have major league talent under team control at every position except one--shortstop. Andrelton Simmons was acquired on a one-year deal and has shown himself to be a competent (not all-world) defender and has had a putrid offensive season. The consensus at this site is that he should not and will not return in 2022. By all measures, the 2021 Simmons has been among the worst hitters in MLB. Good luck elsewhere Simba. It didn't work out in Minnesota.
    Who replaces Simmons as the everyday SS next year? I think the question is interesting. The Twins can go several different directions, including moving Jorge Polanco back to short. I would think that any shortstop decision has to be made with an eye on some of the Twins top prospects. Royce Lewis will miss all of 2021 following knee surgery. Lewis has the potential to be the kind of five-tool star that Byron Buxton has teased us with when he has been healthy. Lewis also has a minor league resume that is considerably short of his potential and there are murmurs that he won't end up as a shortstop. Another top prospect is Austin Martin, obtained in the José Berríos trade, He also has a history at shortstop, but exclusively played outfield for Wichita since he was acquired by the Twins. Martin seems to have a much more refined hit tool than Lewis, with a high OBP and relatively low strikeouts. He hasn't demonstrated big power in the minors, however. Do the Twins believe either of these guys will be their everyday shortstop next year? I really doubt it. Lewis has almost no experience in the high minors and has essentially missed two years of baseball and while it is quite likely that Martin will make his major league debut next season, his most likely position will be outfield. A third minor league option is Wichita's regular shortstop this season, Jermaine Palacios. He has had a power surge and has been a shortstop through his minor league career. Could he make the jump? At least to start 2022, I think all three guys are longshots to even be on the major league roster.
    Of course, there are two possible candidates on the big league roster. Polanco has almost 500 games played at short, and while he isn't league average with the leather, he is a proven hitter. Nick Gordon has impressed, but despite playing a lot of shortstop in the minors, he's only logged 43 innings at short in this, his rookie year, with the Twins. Again, I have my doubts. However, I think the readiness of a replacement from the organization is the key to determining what type of player the Twins will seek to fill the void at shortstop.
    If they are convinced that one of their prospects will be an everyday shortstop in the majors by 2023, then the focus would be on more of a stopgap player, perhaps someone who might start the season as a regular, but could evolve into a utility player. If the feeling is that none of the prospects in the high minors can cut it as an everyday shortstop by 2023, then they have to sign someone with a bit more permanence. Signing someone from outside the organization for more than one year also would seem to create a glut of major league players. Sano and Kirilloff at first, Polanco, Arraez and Gordon at second, Donaldson at third with also Arraez capable at the hot corner. Add in that their near-certain Minor League Player of the Year, Jose Miranda, can fill first second and third and there seems to be too many players for the infield and DH positions. 
    One additional thought--while he didn't get much love from Twins fans, I think the Twins missed Ehire Adrianza, or at least someone who could fill the role of Adrianza. Moving Polanco to shortstop whenever Simmons was hit for or had a day off seemed to disrupt the entire infield. Having a true backup shortstop who could fill in at other positions would have been a good thing for the Twins' roster. Having such a player in addition to Adrianza and Gordon might make the position player part of the roster very crowded. The frontline defense for the Twins was pretty good, but it seemed whenever a starter was subbed out, it would be for an inferior defender, sometimes weakening more than one position.
    I think that there is enough talent on the position player side for the Twins to contend, perhaps as soon as next year. To achieve the dream of contending, they would have to come up with pitching, but the late-season performances of Ryan and Ober offer hope that they might be pieces of the puzzle next year and that the minor leagues could possibly start producing good quality pitching from within the organization. 
    There are decisions to be made. I don't see any clear path to solving the shortstop position problem, but there have to be answers somewhere. Falvey and Levine need to make the right choices in several areas to help bring the club back. Their jobs may depend on the choices they make.
     

  12. stringer bell
    The Twins play their 30th game this afternoon and are currently 11-18. They've been beset by bad luck, bad play and have taken a beating with two rule changes (extra-inning runner on second, 7-inning games for doubleheaders). How do they get out of this funk? I'm sure many in the organization will preach patience and they may be right, but that isn't any fun. Here are some possibilities for change that might help the team:
     
    Role change. We've already seen one role change. At least temporarily Alexander Columé is not going to see high-leverage innings. Columé has been a huge disappointment and even when he has worked scoreless innings, he's been shaky. The problem is that taking Columé out of high leverage situations leaves the Twins with few good options, particularly when going 6 or more innings for a starter is a rarity. I think one pitching role change that should be made is to use Taylor Rogers in non-save high leverage situations as happened early in 2019 and sometimes use him for multiple innings. Rogers shouldn't be used in back-to-back days. Moving Alcala to high leverage situations seems to be gradually happening. If things continue to go bad, it makes sense to have him give a shot as a closer. Position players--it seems to me that both Polanco and Kepler should have their roles diminished from full-time regular to something different. Kepler can play a corner and center and Polanco has played short and second, maybe Max should be slotted as the fourth OF or at least platooned with Garlick. I think giving Polanco the role of three-position infielder wouldn't be a stretch. He could get some at-bats as a platoon partner for my choice of regular second baseman (Arraez) and left-handed at-bats in place of Simmons and when Donaldson takes a day off (or is injured).
     
    Promotions/demotions. Assuming that Alex Kirilloff is in the big leagues to stay, when healthy the Twins have one extra position player and someone will have to be sent to the minor leagues or released. Discussion has centered on Jake Cave. Several others could be sent down and that doesn't begin to discuss the pitching staff. Many pitchers'performances could merit their demotion.
     
    Trades. It is unlikely that anyone will make a significant trade this early in the year. However, the Twins would be a good candidate for a major trade nearer the trade deadline. They have some redundancy (left handed hitting corner outfielders) and holes that need patching (bullpen, perhaps catching) and many candidates to trade. They also have a lot of players who would be free agents after this season. I do wonder if someone who was considered a cornerstone (Polanco, Kepler, Sanó) could be traded. None of these guys have performed remotely well so far but an uptick could make them more marketable. I have to believe that the Twins will bring in new pitchers either in the bullpen or the rotation. What they have at this time in the bullpen just hasn't worked.
     
    Personally, I think the Twins will need to do a little bit of everything to turn the corner. I am a proponent of changing roles. I think Kepler and Polanco could be candidates to have limited roles. The Twins need to add at least one strong arm in the bullpen, most likely by trade and Trevor Larnach is reputed to be nearly as much a sure thing as a hitter as Alex Kirilloff, plus he is a better outfielder. There is too much talent for the club to continue to play sub.400 baseball, but I think they need to make changes immediately.
  13. stringer bell
    Nelson Cruz has been everything the Twins could have expected for 2019 and 2020. He's stayed relatively healthy, hit both with power and for average, he's been available to play except for two ten-day stays on the Injured List and he has been a team leader and mentor for all players on his team. Cruz has been far and away the best hitter both last year and this year.
     
    Despite all of his contributions, I am not sure my favorite team should bring back Nelson Cruz for the 2021 season. There is a truism that it is better to move off a player a year too soon than a year too late. Father Time is looking hard at Nelson Cruz and at some point he will slow down. Actually, I wonder if he might have started slowing down at this point. Cruz is striking out more lately and not hitting with as much power as he did in the first half of this shortened season. Cruz has managed to keep his batting average up, but he only has three homers and 3 RBI in the 20 days of September. I don't know what will happen next year, but I would think that there is a chance Cruz' production will drop, perhaps dramatically.
     
    Also to consider is what the roster will look like next year and how Nelson would fit in it. The team has probably three corner OF/DH/1B prospects ready to play next year. Keeping Cruz would mean that for 90% of the games that Cruz isn't injured, he will fill the DH role. That leaves no real place for Kirilloff, Rooker and Larnach. Letting Eddie Rosario go could allow playing time for one of these guys, but still leaves a bit of a logjam. Using the DH spot as a half day off for regulars might be a better plan.
     
    Nelson Cruz has provided 1.7 WAR this year after 55 games, which would translate into over 5 WAR for a full season. His OPS this year is 1.026, just down from last year's 1.032. Cruz's OPS+ is actually higher this year 178 vs. 168 and he achieved 4.2 WAR for the full season last year. He has served as a role model for the younger players, particularly Hispanic players.It would certainly be a tough call to let him leave the Twins, but I don't think it is out of the question.
  14. stringer bell
    MLB and the MLBPA agreed yesterday to accommodations for a shortened 2020 major league schedule. Many things are to be determined, especially since there is no firm date for the season to begin. I choose to be optimistic that there will be baseball this summer, perhaps without crowds in the stands. One thing agreed to unofficially was an expanded roster. The number that has been published is 29. I am going with that information and will now name the 29 players I expect will be on the roster for Opening Day 2020 whenever that happens.
     
    Pitchers--(15) Berríos, Maeda, Odorizzi, Bailey, Chacín, Dobnak, Wisler, May, Clippard, Stashak, Duffey, Romo, Littell, Thielbar, Rogers
     
    Catchers--(3) Garver,Avila, Astudillo
     
    Infielders--(6) Sanó, Arraez, Polanco, Donaldson, Adrianza, Gonzalez
     
    Outfielders--(4) Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Cave
     
    Designated Hitter--(1) Cruz
     
    This would take the current roster, subtract Rich Hill and add both Thielbar and Chacín. My reasoning for this roster includes that the schedule will probably have doubleheaders and perhaps will fill some off days with games, meaning that a larger pitching staff in today's environment would be essential. I have included both Dobnak and Chacín, who have been competing for a starting spot and assume that either the Twins will go with a six-man rotation or that one of Dobnak or Chacín will be a "long man" in the bullpen. I assumed that if the staff were expanded by three that the Twins would add a lefty, even though specialists will be minimized by the three-batter rule. Having an occasional different look could be helpful.
     
    The fight for the 13th position player is over--they both win. I had thought Astudillo's ability to make contact and play many positions would win out over Cave's general competency, but with an additional position player spot available, both make the team.
     
    As for the pitching staff, it is murkier. First of all, Rich Hill has stated he could be ready to pitch in June. Suddenly, he might miss only a couple weeks or perhaps no time at all. Michael Pineda has two-thirds of his sixty game suspension to serve. I would expect that his suspension is prorated, much as service time will be prorated. If the season is 100 games, his suspension would be 25 games. There is nothing official, but that is what I will go with. I am assuming that Hill won't quite be ready when the season starts and that Pineda will have at least three weeks of suspension to serve.
     
    I think the Twins have seen enough of Chacín to want to see a bit more. He may not survive the return of Pineda and debut of Hill, but I don't think the Twins want to give up on him quite yet. Dobnak has pitched the best in exhibition games of those competing for a spot and he was outstanding last year in his brief time with the Twins. Wisler and Stashak both make the bullpen and there still is room for a lefty. I picked Thielbar over the others--Barnes, Clay and Coulumbe all had some moments, but I think Thielbar has pitched better. Hardy just had TJ surgery so he is out for 2020.
     
    I think a 29-man roster demonstrates the depth that the Twins possess. In other years, all of the players mentioned would easily make the Opening Day roster and more would have a chance. I have not added Devin Smeltzer to the 29, but believe he could be an option to pitch several doubleheader games if that happens. I don't really see him as a reliever and he has an option to use, so if he were called on to pitch as a long man, he could be shuttled to Rochester this year.
  15. stringer bell

    Strange Times

    By stringer bell,

    I write this blog entry when I was expecting to do other things. I am in Fort Myers in 80 degree weather with just a hint of a breeze on a nice Thursday afternoon. What could be wrong? Well, actually, plenty.
     
    My significant other and I made plans for the rest of winter sometime in January. Because we had made an extended trip of the Christmas/New Year holidays and because we were planning a family gathering for the summer, we decided to stay in Minnesota for the rest of January and I decided I would stay in February until I could make it to spring training for my favorite baseball team. The plan was for me to drive to Florida by way of my daughter's residence in Indiana. I would be in Fort Myers by myself until she was on semester break and then we could enjoy a week together in Florida--baseball, beaches, warm weather--before driving back together so that she could be ready for college to start up again.
     
    Things often don't go as you plan them. The expensive ticket for her flight could now be purchased for pennies on the dollar. The Minnesota Twins and all of major league baseball have cancelled the remainder of spring training games. The Final Four won't happen, to quote a song "Broadway is dark tonight" and I would expect more cancellations going forward.
     
    This has brought me to think about what is important and what isn't. Having something like baseball to occupy my time is important. Filling that gap is essential. Having health is really crucial. I am thankful to be in good health at this time and I certainly don't want to get the coronavirus, even though it likely wouldn't effect me long term. Many people could die needlessly if measures aren't taken to diminish the acceleration of exposure. I'll do what I can to avoid getting the virus and spreading it to others.
     
    Oh yes. I did get to watch the future of the Minnesota Twins (IMHO). On Tuesday, in Clearwater, the starting lineup included Alex Kirilloff, Trevor Larnach, Brent Rooker and Royce Lewis. They all impressed me, particularly Lewis, who homered and made an outstanding defensive play at shortstop. If two or three of these prospects pan out, the pipeline will be intact and the Twins should be able to have a first-division lineup for most of the next decade.
     
    Today, before MLB's announcement suspending exhibition games, I watched Twins minor leaguers play. I saw Duran throwing absolute gas, Matt Wallner (big kid--6'5") looking good, but not making contact and I found out about a Twins prospect Seth Gray (4th round draft choice from Wright State) from his dad. I'll be a Gray fan now. Seems like a nice kid. Finally, as I was walking back to my car I saw a man walking over to a somewhat elderly guy wearing a Twins hat. Tony-O!. I waited until the conversation was over and asked Tony if I could take a picture. He said that we should make it a selfie, but that he couldn't sign autographs--bosses orders.
     
    I asked Tony how old he really was and he said something to the effect of "in America, I'm 81" with a chuckle. According to BB Reference, that is his correct age FWIW. I got back to my room excited about spending more days like today at the spring training complex, meeting icons and nice people from Twins Territory, and now it seems it is over almost before it started. Since I started writing this entry, Disneyland announced they were closing and March Madness was cancelled. This is serious stuff folks.
  16. stringer bell

    Playing Favorites

    By stringer bell,

    I have been a Twins fan since I was six years old, when they moved to the Twin Cities from Washington. After nearly sixty years, I doubt that that will ever be a fan of another baseball team or lose interest in "my team". In the course of the 59 years that the Twins have been the Twins, I have always had a favorite player or two every year. Sometimes that guy is a star, often he's not the star of the team. My favorites have included some obscure guys like Gary Wayne, Geoff Zahn, and Ron Washington, some good players like Gary Ward, Gary Gaetti, Brian Dozier and Michael Cuddyer and some All-Stars. I've always checked the box scores when I missed a game, to see how my favorite did. I've always advocated for my favorite player and enjoyed breakouts from such players as Greg Gagne and Brian Dozier.
     
    All of this is a preface for my current favorite player--Marwin Gonzalez. I like the way Gonzalez goes about his business, the way that he has fit in the clubhouse and how he is willing to play anywhere without complaint or preference for one position or another. Gonzalez looks like he will be affected by the signing of Josh Donaldson. He figured to have regular duty at one of the corners of the infield and now there will be a regular at both corners and probably in all the outfield positions. I hope Marwin gets consistent playing time when all are healthy and know that he will do well if there is an injury or ineffectiveness at one of the infield corners or in the outfield.
     
    I'd like to see my current favorite get his customary 500 plate appearances. I think with that number of at-bats he will perform quite well.
  17. stringer bell
    Two 30-year-old natives of Venezuela, both switch-hitters, both came to the majors as shortstops who became utility players and were to become free agents at the end of the 2018 season. I was looking at Baseball Reference and thought I would compare the former Twin with the current Twin. I was surprised how similar their numbers were.
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/escobed01.shtml
    https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzama01.shtml
     
    While they are very similar, there are differences. First of all, Gonzalez has remained a versatile defender, while Escobar has become a fixture at third base for his new club. Neither are spending appreciable time in the middle of the diamond, this year Escobar has played one game at second base and Gonzalez has played one game at shortstop. Gonzalez has started mostly at third, but with the return of Miguel Sanó, he's started multiple games at first, third, left and right field.
     
    Escobar has truly come into his own as a hitter. He hits in the middle of a good Arizona lineup and leads the National League in games, plate appearances and at-bats. So far, he is putting up numbers worthy of All-Star consideration. After an extremely slow start, Gonzalez has put up numbers in line with his career norms.
     
    It is intriguing to consider what might have happened if the Twins had somehow managed to retain Escobar. Would he have been able to have the role that Gonzalez is filling? Would the Twins then converted Sanó to first base and not acquired Cron? For what it's worth, it appears that this has worked out for all concerned.
  18. stringer bell
    With the announcement that Nelson Cruz suffered a wrist injury yesterday, my immediate thought was who would replace him in the lineup and on the roster if he had to go on the injured list. It would appear to me that the answer is the much-discussed Miguel Sanó, who is on his third and last stop in his rehab program.
     
    Much has been written about Sanó. I wish to confine this discussion to the ballplayer between the lines. The other stuff has been beaten to death IMHO. What will the Twins get when a healthy Sanó is on the active roster?
     
    Sanó came up to the big leagues with much hype in 2015. He was going to be the power hitter the Twins hadn't had since Harmon Killebrew. Another comparison, because of size, was Frank Thomas. Sanó's rookie year was excellent. Despite being called up only at midseason, he was a contender for Rookie-of-the-Year. His traditional state line--.269 BA, 18 homers, 52 RBI was very good. Double the homers and RBIs for a full season, and there is a perennial All-Star, future Hall of Famer. Plus, he was only 22 years of age. A deeper look at his rookie stats was probably even more encouraging, while Miguel struck out over 100 times (in a half season), he also walked more than 50 times, giving him a solid OBP of .385. His OPS was a stellar .916 which yielded an OPS+ of 149. After a minor injury, Miguel only played 11 games in the field, so we couldn't be sure about his defense. For his superior half-season of work, Miguel Sanó was voted the Twins' Player of the Year.
     
    2016 started with Sanó installed as the new right fielder. He was never competent or comfortable there and it seemed to affect his hitting. After a month and a half of futility in right field, Miguel moved back to third to demonstrate a rocket arm, but less-than-soft hands. His metrics at third came in below average, but at least he could hit. Well, the hitting didn't go as well either. Sanó ended up playing in 116 game, having an OPS of .781 with 19 homers and 51 RBI as the Twins flailed and failed and lost over 100 games. Sanó missed over 30 games due to injuries. Again, a deeper look into Sanó's numbers is a mixed bag. In 160 additional plate appearances, Sanó only hit one more homer than 2015, his walk rate plummeted while his strikeout rate stayed basically steady. The batting average ended at .236 and his OBP fell to.319.
     
    Sanó was a deserved All-Star in 2017. He came to camp as the third baseman, healthy and came out of the gate on fire. His first-half stats were outstanding--.276, 21 homers, 62 RBI and his defense at third was satisfactory. The strikeout rate remained about the same (35%), but he also walked 44 times, a big improvement over 2016 and the OBP was .368 at the break.
     
    Since the 2017 All-Star break, Miguel Sanó hasn't been very good. The combined numbers from the second half of '17 and 2018 are .211 BA, 20 homers, 56 RBI. OBP at .292, slugging .408, with an OPS of .700. The walk rate is below 10% and the strikeout rate is 38%. These are not future Hall-of-Fame numbers. They aren't even starter numbers. In addition, according to metrics (and my eyes) Sanó remains a below-average third baseman, despite a plus-plus arm.
     
    To summarize this rather elongated prologue, Sanó's on-field performance has been a roller coaster. He started looking like one of the brightest stars, faded, came back to that level again and faded again. Does this up-and-down have to do with injuries? Certainly. The point here is to suggest that the Twins shouldn't be counting on Sanófor too much. Expectations of another Frank Thomas or Miguel Cabrera should be tempered by now. I think they should expect more than they gotten since the All-Star break of 2017. They should get more than Mark Reynolds-like production. If the strikeouts keep coming and the homers are too infrequent, he can still be optioned. This club looks like at least a contender for postseason. If that is the case, they shouldn't be playing guys based on potential or upside.
     
    Miguel Sanó is at a crossroads in his career (in my opinion). He soon will have a chance to step on stage with a good team and help them make postseason, and maybe have success there. He's now 26 and shouldn't be judged on what he might do, he should be judged by how he is actually performing on the field.As a Twins fan and a baseball fan, I hope he can find his earlier success. As someone who has seen a lot of hyped players come and go, I am a bit skeptical.
  19. stringer bell
    The Twins have ridden the roller coaster during the Paul Molitor era. Up in 2015, way down in 2016, a peek at the playoffs in 2017 and now way down in 2018. The roller coaster claimed a front-office victim in longtime GM Terry Ryan two years ago and now there has to be some heat on field manager Molitor after this season's extreme disappointment.
     
    The complaints about the old regime included being too "old school", including pitch-to-contact staffs, not using advanced metrics, cookie cutter approaches to hitting, and of course, not spending enough to bring in and keep talent. Fair complaints all, I think. However, in the Levine/Falvey era, we see little real progress and a real lack of talent in the upper minors. This year's crop of September call-ups is among the most uninspiring in recent memory.
     
    I believe there are two keys to being competitive and sustaining that competitiveness for a number of years. The first is pitching. Levine and Falvey are supposed to be pitching guys. They have acquired pitching, but with mixed results at best. Their best talent at the top levels of the farm system doesn't have many, if any, outstanding talents. Addison Reed, Zach Duke, Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi didn't move the needle much for the big club this year. Perhaps they have suffered from some bad luck and just need to add quality until it sticks and stays. All I can say is this, the Twins rank in the bottom third of almost every meaningful pitching stat. You don't win year after year with far below average pitching.
     
    The other component which is missing in my opinion is defense. For the last two years, the Twins have gone with a primary shortstop who is well below average defensively, couple that with a revolving door in center field this year, the trading of the regular second baseman and the season-ending injury to primary catcher Jason Castro, and you have a toxic mess turning outs into outs. Further, and if there is one complaint about Molitor that sticks, it is this. The team has been woeful at executing fundamental baseball. I'm talking about throwing to the proper base, making needless throws, failing to hit cutoff men and the like. Add in that opposing baserunners are taking extra bases like free gifts and this is tough to watch.
     
    I think the front office needs to commit to pitching and defense in a big way this offseason. That would include making every effort to keep their most gifted defender (Byron Buxton) in Minnesota and on the field as much as possible. Secondly, I think the Twins need a defensive-minded shortstop, with the idea that Jorge Polanco can move to what I think is his natural position, second base. On the pitching front, more and better arms to augment the so-so rotation (I think Gibson/Berrios/Odorizzi is fine for #2-4) and a questionable bullpen. I like May/Hildenberger/Rogers, but more is needed included a closer.
     
    The Twins have been in the baseball wilderness long enough. They need to have a solid plan for improvement, stick with it and stay relevant not for an occasional year, but consistently. I think the long suffering fan base deserves it.
  20. stringer bell
    Let me preface what will undoubtedly be a long entry by saying I am a Dozier fan. I have spoken to him at Spring Training a couple of times and like the young man. I believe he has been the Twins MVP for each of the last four seasons (counting this one) and I have no doubt that he is the team's best player at this point. Certainly, he isn't flawless, but the Twins need more players like Brian Dozier, not less.
     
    Over the course of this long, horrible season, Brian Dozier has often been a hot topic of conversation in Twins Territory. He isn't shy about stepping up to a microphone, my wife and daughters think he's good-looking and he's been a regular with the club as their second baseman for four years. If someone casually follows the Twins, they know who Dozier is, so it figures that he would be a topic of conversation.
     
    Let's see why Dozier has been discussed so much and what I think should be the conclusion for the topic: First of all, as the Twins started the season, Dozier couldn't get it going. After a bad second half in 2015, Dozier came out of the gate slow in 2016. Through all of April and May, Dozier barely reached .200 and the signature power was lacking. Had the league figured him out? Was the 28 year old (turned 29 in mid-May) regressing already? Should he be benched or put at the bottom of the order? My thought, then and now, was that it is a long season. If a guy is a good player, he'll come out of a funk. Robbie Cano had a similar stretch at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 and Cano might be a Hall-of-Famer. Along for the ride early in the season was the question whether BD was too pull-happy and if he used the whole field, he would be a more consistent and productive hitter. My thought was that Dozier needed to be able to hit the ball with authority when he was pitched away and as the season has progressed, he has accumulated some oppo hits and several to the middle of the field, the key being that he hit the ball hard, not a lazy popup or routine fly ball.
     
    Moving on, Dozier has spent most of the season hitting #1 or #2. Many have thought it wasn't ideal for a guy whose calling card is big power for his position to hit first or second. My thought then was that the Twins simply didn't have a better option. Dozier takes some of the longest at-bats on the team, he's walked a fair amount since arriving in the majors and he's a good base runner who doesn't clog the bases for those behind him. Ideally, he should have hit lower in the order to make a few more of his homers multi-run shots and I think that where Dozier hits in the lineup in 2017 will be a hot controversial topic if he is in a Twins' uniform next year.
     
    As the season rolled toward the All-Star break, the call to sell and rebuild the Twins included Dozier's name prominently. He had some value and the club is/was going nowhere in '16, so cashier him for a prospect or two and let Jorge Polanco handle second base. In June and July, Dozier recovered from his slow start. He put up a great line in June, posting an OPS for the month in excess of 1.000, he slowed in July, hitting only .240 but still putting up an OPS of .824. Trade Dozier at the deadline? Didn't happen and IMHO shouldn't have happened. He hasn't slowed down much since his monster June and with a team-friendly contract and relative youth, his value should only be higher in the off-season or at next year's trade deadline.
     
    Another topic that has emerged is defense. After a truly stout year in 2013, Dozier's defense has been categorized as below average by most metrics. While I don't believe Dozier is elite defensively, my eyes tell me he is in the average range. He makes a few outstanding plays (probably more than any other Twins player) and doesn't get to some balls he should, perhaps because of shifting, maybe because the position of shortstop has been in flux since he became a second baseman, maybe because in three of the last four years, the team never had a shot at contention. I don't know. In checking BB Ref, Dozier lags in zone rating, but is above average in runs saved. I see it as a wash, making Dozier average in the field. I'm waiting for someone to refute this, but in the final analysis, defense probably is an "eyes of the beholder" topic.
     
    Since the All-Star break, Brian Dozier has been en fuego. He's hitting .320, with an OPS of 1.091 and a mlb-leading 21 homers. I guess that puts to rest the "first half player" meme that was circulating among the diehard fans remaining. The question that stems from his performance both the cold April and May and his elite performance since is what to expect going forward. I have turned over in my mind what the most likely trajectory of Dozier's career figures to be. One extreme is Dan Uggla, who like Dozier wasn't highly regarded, got a chance in his mid-twenties and became a star in large part because of his power numbers. Uggla fell off a cliff in his early thirties. An opposing example is Jeff Kent. Kent was an okay player, but not even a full-time regular until he was 29. Starting from age 30, Kent won an MVP, was an All-Star five times with three different teams and posted OPS+ numbers over 119 every year until he was 39. This seems to be the extremes for power-hitting second basemen. Is Dozier going to be productive for most of another decade or is regression going to meet him around his 30th birthday? My answer is that no one knows for sure. It appears to me that Dozier has made adjustments to become a more complete hitter without diminishing his best asset--home run power. IMHO, it makes him a candidate to sustain high-end performance, although the end of 2015 and April-May of this year give a good argument that he could turn into a pumpkin at any time.
     
    In the last few weeks as the tumult in my life has moved Twins baseball on the back burner, I've managed to check the box scores, cluck over the disastrous pitching and watch highlights of games. Dozier has been front and center continuing his power surge. He now projects to exceed 40 homers and if he hits just one more long ball, he will have hit more in a single season than any Twin since Harmon in 1970. 40 homers would be a Top Ten season in franchise history dating back to the Senators who started playing at the turn of the 20th century. Only Harmon and Roy Sievers (once) have ever hit 40 homers in a single season in franchise history. Dozier is projected to score and drive in over 100 runs, also a rare feat, especially for guy who has hit first or second most of the season. He may or may not make 40 homers, 100 RBI or 100 runs, but on such a bad team those numbers stand out big and bold. Although I'm not a big fan of WAR, it does represent a quick and dirty assessment of value and Dozier's 5.6 WAR for this season is in the Top Ten in the league. Because the season has been so bad, I don't think Dozier has gotten the attention he deserves for his huge season. He won't win a Silver Slugger or MVP, he won't win the HR championship or set any other records, so there hasn't been any national coverage, but his overall season and particularly his production since June has been off the charts.
     
    Now in the season's final month, most Twins fans are thinking about the future (with good reason). Augmenting a terrible rotation is Priority One and trading Brian Dozier to get pitching help makes sense, since his value should be at an all-time high. This argument is buttressed by the play of Polanco, who has hit over .300, showing good on-base skills, but a questionable glove at short or third. I believe Jorge Polanco is best suited to second base and I believe adding him for Dozier wouldn't be all bad since Polanco is a switch hitter and wouldn't be prone to long slumps with his swing and approach. However, unless the payoff is monumental, Brian Dozier should be the Twins second baseman next year. He has had a season for the ages despite the wreckage around him, he's only 29 and if the last 100 days are an indication, he might get even better. Finally, he's been a solid citizen off the field. If the club wants somebody as the face of the franchise, they could do worse than Mr. Dozier.
     
    Just a couple more thoughts before I summarize--Dozier has been durable. Since becoming the team's second baseman, he hasn't been disabled and has missed only a handful of games with injuries. Secondly, my observation is that he is a good teammate. He doesn't sulk, cheers for his mates, appears to like their company off the field (loved the State Fair video) and despite having strong religious views, doesn't put that in the face of his teammates or the media.
     
    I have mentioned many of these thoughts in previous threads on the forums of Twins Daily. I find this player to be fascinating, especially in light of his minor league career and low status when drafted. I think Brian Dozier is a fine player who hasn't gotten the appreciation he deserves for this, his best season. I will continue to be a Dozier fan, hopefully as he continues to be a Minnesota Twin, but even if he's traded. In the event that he is traded, I will be pulling for the players acquired in return and hope they make the Twins better.
  21. stringer bell
    At the All-Star break, the Twins sit with a terrible 32-56 record and it is only that good because they've won the last three series against three AL West clubs. For most of the season, the Twins have scored the fewest runs in the AL while allowing the most. I wasn't totally surprised that the Twins pitching staff was bad, but it just doesn't seem right that they would be last in runs scored justifiably because they weren't getting on base and not hitting when they did manage to get runners in scoring position.
     
    With good work of late from their offense, the Twins have improved in offensive categories. They rank 10th in runs scored, 8th in OPS and slugging, 9th in OBP and 10th in homers. I would expect those numbers to continue to rise. There's plenty of talent and a lot of them are starting to realize their potential.
     
    Certainly, the pitching needs to improve, both the rotation and the back end of the bullpen. However, some guys have stepped up. Fernando Abad was brilliant for the first quarter of the season, but has faded. Brandon Kinzler was signed to a minor league contract, but recalled this spring and has been pretty good. Taylor Rogers looks like he belongs in the bullpen and Ryan Pressly and Michael Tonkin have shown enough to hold spots in the Twins bullpen.
     
    There is enough offense to be a good team soon. There isn't enough pitching. The Twins don't have an ace and their most consistent veteran is supposedly on the block. I am of the opinion that every trade made by the Twins from now until they are a true contender has to bring back pitching or catching. It is my belief that the Twins will be good again when their staff is better than average. I'm willing to bet the members of that staff will be homegrown or acquired in minor deals or the Rule V Draft. Signing free agent pitchers is like going against the house in Vegas. You might win once in a while, but long term the house always wins. Ryan has attempted to sign pitchers to eight figure (per year) contracts and it hasn't worked out.
     
    I expect the Twins to be more competitive in the second half of the season. I sincerely hope they trade a couple of veterans to allow the kids to play. Chargois and Berrios can cut their teeth in the major leagues. Some of Suzuki, Plouffe, Nuñez, Santana, Nolasco, and Abad should be sold off. I really don't think they are that far away, if they can get middle of the pack pitching.
     
    The other factor, which I think is overlooked in the Twins demise this year is defense. The pitching staff has enough trouble getting three outs in an inning and too often, because of misplays, a fourth or fifth out has been donated to the opponent. If the Twins get a new catcher or catching tandem, I would hope they get a solid defender who can limit opponent's running game. Also, another glaring deficiency has been shortstop. Eduardo Nuñez is below average as a shortstop and Eduardo Escobar has had a poor year playing short IMHO. A trade of Nuñez would probably net better defense at short
  22. stringer bell
    Yep, the Twins are bad. They almost certainly will lose 100 games and finish last in the AL Central. Management has been trashed regularly on Twins Daily and has deserved the scorn of the fan base. Articles have been written and several threads have discussed trading just about every veteran on the roster. I submit to everyone that the position players aren't that bad and not that much needs to be done. There is enough talent to score plenty of runs.
     
    Pitching, on the other hand, is a problem. The only home grown pitcher in the rotation for more than a year is Kyle Gibson. Tyler Duffey has had a couple of moments, but his numbers this year don't inspire confidence. There is talent but I don't know when or if it will ever develop. The bullpen has evolved a bit this year. The supposed end of the bullpen has imploded almost completely--Glen Perkins has a career-threatening injury, Kevin Jepsen was just DFAed, and Trevor May has been both injured and ineffective.
     
    I think that reforming the pitching staff is Problem #1 and Problem #2 is defense. All of that has to do with suppressing runs. Last year, for whatever reason, the rotation and bullpen performed much better than it had in all of the 90-loss seasons. They ranked in the middle in runs allowed. This year the Twins are last by a long ways in runs allowed. They are something like 1-34 when they score less than four runs.
     
    Too many veterans occupy spots in the rotation and too much money is invested in them. Some of those guys need to go. They are over thirty and most likely will never be better than they are now. The Twins bullpen has traditionally carried several guys who depended on their defense to make plays behind them. The bullpen has evolved somewhat, but isn't that effective.
     
    What transactions need to happen? I think at least one of Nolasco/Santana has to go. The live arms in the minors need to be tried, even if they aren't that effective. On the trade front, several players could go. I just saw an article on mlbtraderumors.com that lists Kinzler as a sneaky trade candidate, Abad could be on several team's radar and several position players might be gone--Nuñez, Suzuki, Plouffe (if healthy), perhaps Grossman--and most of this is addition by subtraction or moving on to the next season.
     
    The team could get better fast in scoring runs if Sano, Buxton, and Kepler live up to the hype and become solid regulars or better than that. Maybe the pitching and defense can get better fast. IMHO, it's harder to project pitchers than position players. I don't think it's a rebuild, it is a recasting.
  23. stringer bell
    After the back-slapping is done at Twins Way, the general manager should have time to take a long, hard look at the season that just played out. The Twins won 83 games and were competitive. The season was highlighted by one fine month (May) and a pluckiness that kept them from sinking too far when times got tough. The Twins pitching improved more than their metrics indicated while offensively the team scored more runs than their numbers indicated.
     
    The Twins scored 695 runs, while the league averaged 710. In 2014, the club scored 715 runs, ranking in the top half of most offensive statistics except for home runs. What changed? Plenty. In 2014, the Twins had better than average performance from a player at all nine positions. In 2015, they managed to have players with an OPS+ above 100 at three positions, and only one player (Miguel Sano) whose numbers could be classified as well above average. The team was dead last in on-base percentage and their top hitter had a batting average of .265. The 2014 had more than 100 more walks than the 2015 team, while accumulating 65 more strikeouts. Somehow the 2015 group finished in the middle of the pack in runs scored, but overall offense took a severe downturn. Part of that can be explained by personnel--the Twins got more than 450 at-bats from Eddie Rosario, who provided first-rate defense in the outfield corners instead of playing lumbering DHs and first basemen in the outfield. Regression hit the Twins hard as well. 2014 newcomers Santana and Vargas along with Oswaldo Arcia all struggled and were banished to the minor leagues, with Arcia not even being recalled when rosters were expanded. Full-time regulars Dozier and Plouffe saw their seasons fall off after seeing career bests in 2014. 2014 All-Star Kurt Suzuki came back to earth with a BA 40 points lower and his OPS+ falling from 104 to 67.
     
    Pitching was more of a mixed bag. The Twins' rotation wasn't great, but wasn't the embarrassment that previous editions had been. Only Kyle Gibson made it through the season without missing a start, but every starter had good moments. The bullpen, which all along seemed to be a weak link, was aided by the addition of a couple of guys via trade and one guy via demotion from the starting rotation. Also assisting in the staff's improvement was better, more athletic defense, particularly in the outfield. Still, the Twins still ranked last in strikeouts and first in hits allowed while yielding the second-fewest walks, a continuation of the much-maligned "pitch-to-contact" meme from previous seasons.
     
    Looking at the roster, it is a combination of veterans and young players with a couple (Dozier and Plouffe) in between. Suzuki, Mauer, and Hunter are all in the second half of their careers, while youngsters handle the other positions. The pitching staff had many over-30 guys pitching, including almost all of the bullpen.
     
    In general, the offense needs to improve by getting on base more. Too much of the team's power is concentrated in right handed hitters, and more speed would help. On the mound, more power arms are needed. There are specific questions that need to be answered, as well. Here are five questions that need to be answered in the off-season and my takes on each one:
     
    1) What will Trevor May's role be for the 2016 Twins? May is one of the top arms on the Twins. While he wants to start and profiles to be a good one, I think he should be in the bullpen as the eighth inning guy, and perhaps as the closer. His stuff "played up" in the bullpen and he had several outings that were dominant.
     
    2) How can the Twins augment the catcher position? Kurt Suzuki had a 67 OPS+ and his backups were dreadful at the plate. Suzuki was among the worst at throwing out base stealers (his pitchers didn't help much) and there were too many unblocked pitches. I think there are two options--acquire a backup from outside the organization or get a starting replacement also from outside the organization. I don't know who that player is, but I think a lefty hitter who is respectable defensively. Ideally, Suzuki should either share time or be the backup.
     
    3) What of Torii Hunter? Hunter was a valuable presence who provided 22 homers, but he hit .242 with a .701 OPS at a premium offensive position. Hunter has stated that he doesn't want to be a part-time player and the Twins have top prospect Byron Buxton and minor league Player of the Year Max Kepler perhaps ready to help next year. Oswaldo Arcia also figures in here.
     
    4) Is it time for Trevor Plouffe to be traded? He has led the club in RBIs the last two years, provided steady and improved defense and has become a team leader. However, Miguel Sano looks the part of a superstar and shouldn't be a DH at 22 years of age. I think that it is in fact time. Plouffe is a good player, but he shouldn't stand in the way of Sano. The Twins could perhaps fill the catcher gap by trading Plouffe.
     
    5) Rick Nolasco is still under contract for two more years. He's been a total disappointment for the first two years of his contract. Can the Twins get out from under his contract? It would be great if Terry Ryan could slough off the contract, but I doubt it. I think Nolasco enters the 2016 season as one of the guys in the Twins rotation. That, in my opinion, seals the deal that May starts in the bullpen. It also indicates that JO Berrios and Tyler Duffey will have a mountain to climb in order to make the rotation to start the season. While it seems silly not to have the best arms starting the season, every rotation goes through changes over the course of the season. I see only eight guys on the short list of starters in the Twins' organization, including May. That isn't too much depth and might not be enough.
  24. stringer bell
    The Twins will enter 2016 after recording their best record since 2010. They have added several young players, most of whom are here to stay. As of today, they have some gaps, but overall have a decent team returning for next year. Four players are slated to be free agents--Mike Pelfrey, Torii Hunter, Brian Duensing, and Neal Cotts. Perhaps a player or two will be non-tendered. Candidates would be Casey Fien, Eduardo Nuñez, and Blane Boyer.
     
    Here is my current projection for the Opening Day 2016 Twins. It will have no rookies making their debuts and no trade acquisitions and I will assume that only one free agent is re-signed, either Cotts or Duensing.
     
    Pitchers: (12)--Phil Hughes, Ricky Nolasco, Tommy Milone, Kyle Gibson, Ervin Santana, Tyler Duffey, Ryan Pressly, Alex Meyer, Cotts or Duensing, Trevor May, Kevin Jepsen, and Glen Perkins.
     
    Catchers: (2)--Kurt Suzuki and Chris Herrmann.
     
    Infielders: (8)--Kennys Vargas, Danny Santana, Eduardo Nuñez, Joe Mauer, Brian Dozier, Eduardo Escobar, Trevor Plouffe and Miguel Sano
     
    Outfielders: (3)--Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks, and Eddie Rosario
     
    Some of these predictions will look pretty silly, I'm sure. I expect Oswaldo Arcia to get a last chance to be a productive player. This along with Byron Buxton's poor offensive showing at the close of 2015 will be enough to get Buxton more AAA time. I would expect he will be patrolling center field before Memorial Day. Another candidate to make the team would be Max Kepler, who probably needs some time in AAA, but before 2016 is over will have a regular spot on the club. The backup outfielders would be the backup infielders and perhaps Escobar and I think it won't be long before an outfielder is promoted.
     
    I have Nuñez surviving another spring. He has had a good year in 2015. He's a pretty good hitter, has some speed and defensive versatility. It is very possible the Twins will choose to go another way with that roster spot. I have youngsters Vargas and Santana as bench players. I'm pretty sure Vargas has an option, so he could easily not make the team, but if Trevor Plouffe is traded, current DH Sano becomes the third baseman and Vargas could be the primary DH. Backup catcher is a problem. The usual suspects from this season appear, but perhaps Stuart Turner will hit enough to bring his strong defense to the majors. I don't expect it on Opening Day, but I think it will happen sometime in 2016.
     
    Three starting pitchers have long-term contracts. Until and unless they are shown to be ineffective beyond repair when healthy, they are in the rotation. The best starters then are Milone and Gibson. That leaves the heralded JO Berrios to spend some more time in AAA, which would also be a smart business decision. I have listed Duffey as a bullpen option, despite his good work in the last quarter of the 2015 season and Trevor May as a big bullpen arm. Taylor Rogers could convert to to relief and take a spot I've given to Duensing/Cotts. The Twins also could go with O'Rourke, more of a pure LOOGy. I think Ryan Pressly had an underrated season before getting injured and my hope is that Alex Meyer has found it as a relief pitcher--he's been effective for the last several weeks. Meyer, May, Jepsen, and Perkins could be a very effective game-closing combination.
     
    I didn't list Casey Fien or Blane Boyer, veterans who have performed quite well this season, and in Fien's case for several seasons. Unfortuanately for them, their stuff doesn't play as well in this high-velocity, high strikeout bullpen era.
  25. stringer bell

    Tightly Packed

    By stringer bell,

    The Twins have one week remaining in a regular season which has seen them stay relevant throughout the entire season. One thing that has transpired in the course of the season is that a regular lineup has developed. The nine players with the most plate appearances on the year fill the nine positions on the field and in the batting order and these nine players are the ones getting the bulk of playing time during the stretch drive in September.
     
    I looked at yesterday's box score and made a couple of mental notes. The first was "no .300 hitters" and the thought was no one is close. Three players that won't qualify for the batting championship (Sano, Escobar, Rosario) could have the best batting average of the nine regulars. The likely high qualifier is Joe Mauer and he's hitting only .266. The next note to myself was "no truly bad hitter". The lowest average (.240) belongs to Dozier, who slugs and draws walks, so his OPS should be decent. Kurt Suzuki is toward the bottom (.244), but he's a catcher and not many catcher compile good hitting stats.
     
    Here's a look at the Twins' nine regulars for 2015 and where they rank in selected offensive stats:
     
    Name PAs BA OPS OPS+ OPS rank
     
    Sano 300 .277 .940 153 1
    Escobar 420 .268 .767 106 4
    Mauer 636 .266 .716 95 12
    Rosario 450 .265 .744 98 10
    Hicks 365 .259 .727 97 9
    Plouffe 608 .245 .744 100 8
    Suzuki 464 .244 .622 70 11
    Hunter 540 .242 .712 91 11
    Dozier 673 .240 .771 107 8
     
    For those devotees of WAR, here are the numbers courtesy of BBRef: Dozier (3.0), Plouffe (2.3), Rosario (2.3), Sano (2.1), Hicks (1.6), Escobar (1.5), Mauer (1.5), Suzuki (0.5) and Hunter (-0.5).
     
    Here are my conclusions: Recalling Sano, Rosario, and Hicks and making Escobar the regular shortstop earlier might have won another ballgame or two. Outside of Sano, there are no standouts here--Dozier had an All-Star first half, but despite the 28 homers, his numbers are off from last year. The Twins' offensive numbers have taken a step back, but for the position players, the biggest improvement has been defense.
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