stringer bell

Three possible first basemen on the 40-man--Arraez, Kirilloff, Miranda--but I like Alex's defense the best at first base. The tool for putting together the blueprint has Arraez as the default, so someone has to actively change that to move him away from first base.

Echoing the comments here, great news about Martin. In the past week, I’ve posted a blog entry about him and his skill set as well as penciled him in on my 2023 blueprint. So yes, I’m pulling hard for him.

Trying to be realistic here. Either the Twins should bring back Carlos Correa or sign a high-profile starting pitcher. Although they have been historically reluctant to spend on pitchers, they have in the last three years made two signings no one saw coming--Donaldson and Correa--and I propose they take the next step and sign an ace-level arm (Carlos Rodon) for five years at $25M per year. In my mind, Omar Narvaez and Ryan Jeffers share the catching position 50-50 and while Luis Arraez is listed as utility, he's an everyday player somewhere, particularly against right handed pitching. I choose Elvis Andrus as the bridge shortstop with Royce Lewis and perhaps Brooks Lee waiting in the wings. I have Austin Martin making a big jump to be a right handed hitting outfield and infield option from Opening Day and the probable center fielder in the event of a disabling injury to Buxton. This would be the last chance for Polanco and Kepler as Twins and honestly it wouldn't surprise me if one or both of them is traded in the off season, although I don't like seeing them moved coming off injury plagued poor seasons. On the pitching side, there seems to be much agreement on the majority of the starting rotation and the back of the bullpen. I added Jovani Moran, who pitched well for the Twins last year and Ronnie Henriquez, who has started or worked multiple innings in relief. Ober is listed as a reliever, but would be a swing man, possibly a sixth starter and filling in when the inevitable injuries occur. Finally, I tacked on an additional $100 or $200K to players who are no longer rookies. C: Ryan Jeffers ($0.89M) 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($0.80M) 2B: Jorge Polanco ($7.50M) 3B: Gio Urshela ($9.00M) SS: Elvis Andrus ($6.00M) LF: Trevor Larnach ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Max Kepler ($8.50M) DH: Jose Miranda ($0.80M) 4th OF: Nick Gordon ($0.80M) Utility: Luis Arraez ($4.50M) Utility: Austin Martin ($0.70M) Backup C: Omar Narvaez ($5.00M) SP1: Carlos Rondon ($25.00M) SP2: Tyler Mahle ($8.00M) SP3: Kenta Maeda ($9.00M) SP4: Joe Ryan ($0.90M) SP5: Sonny Gray ($11.99M) RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.90M) RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M) RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M) RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M) RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M) RP: Bailey Ober ($0.80M) RP: Ronnie Henriquez ($0.70M) RP: Jovani Moran ($0.70M) Payroll is 10.73% under budget

I like seeing a left handed hitting catcher to share with Jeffers. Also like the idea of adding Puk or someone like him.

Apparently trades are made for both Polanco and Kepler? I think that is within the realm of possibility, but who comes back for them? Additionally, if Larnach and Wallner are your corner OFs, I'm pretty certain Wallner will be in right field with Larnach in left. I don't foresee Lee starting at shortstop on Opening Day, although I wouldn't rule him out from getting the most reps at short this year.

My #1 free agent target for the Twins is Rodon. I don't think the Twins would be interested in Aaron Hicks for about $10M per year unless the Yankees paid his salary. As far as IKF goes, he accumulated 2.9 WAR (per BBRef) despite an 84 OPS+ and will be eligible for arbitration this year. Unless the Yankees non-tender him (doubtful), I don't think the Twins will be interested in IKF in a trade.

Stashak has had multiple injuries and is older. He also has far less upside than Enlow. If the Twins choose only one to protect on the 40-man roster, they really have to go with Enlow. It is obvious that relievers aren't as highly regarded as starters, making it quite possible that the Twins might cut ties with both of these guys.

Do we still hate the Manfred extra innings rule after seeing marathon extra inning games in post-season? Not sure that I do.

I'd give MVP to Correa, with Urshela runner-up. Maybe a relief pitcher can and should be considered and Duran's performance merits consideration. I'd place him third with Buxton fourth and Arraez fifth.

The Twins will soon officially have a shortstop vacancy. Carlos Correa has informed the media (and I presume the Twins) that he will opt-out of the second year of his contract. One possibility, Jermaine Palacios, has been DFAed and claimed by the Detroit Tigers. The Twins have shown no tendency to use in-house options Jorge Polanco, Nick Gordon or Gio Urshela as a regular shortstop. Brooks Lee hasn't been with the organization a year out of college and looked pretty rough on defense in the minors. In addition, the Twins have shown a real lack of speed and base running ability. Finally, having a guy who is capable of playing center field in Byron Buxton's absence and filling in at the outfield corners would be ideal. I'm talking about a better hitter than Gilberto Celestino. So, who am I calling on to step up? Austin Martin, of course. The guy was formerly listed as the Twins' top prospect and he played shortstop most of the season in Wichita. Regardless of his ability to play short, he has outfield experience and the requisite speed to cover center field. Moreover, he has profiled with excellent ob=base skills and was among the minor league leaders in stolen bases. Martin has exactly the skills that the club needs to add. Martin will have a chance to show what he has to offer in the Arizona Fall League. Obviously, Martin has a lot of making up to do. He hit and fielded poorly at AA for Wichita. He has slipped down the prospect ratings because of his performance and he hasn't found a power stroke. I don't hold any illusions that it would be a huge surprise for Martin to vault himself into contention for an Opening Day spot particularly as a shortstop. I am saying that he has the particular skills that give him a path for quick advancement to the major leagues. It is all there in front of him. A more likely scenario for Martin would be for him to impress sufficiently that he would be in line for a recall either as an infielder or outfielder at some point during the 2023 season. I will be checking the AFL results in the hope that Austin Martin can restore his prospect status and eventually be a contributor for the Twins.

I believe Andrus didn’t make the vesting option and is an unrestricted free agent.

Very similar to Niko and I think the Kitties would be satisfied if Jermaine had a similar run with them.

So that is five guys cleared from the 40-man. Cave, Romero, Smeltzer, Caleb Hamilton. and Palacios.

While I agree with the choice and also think it’s a nice feel-good story, I do want to point out that Gordon faded the end of the year and also, when used in the infield, showed himself to be a below-average fielder there. It could be that he wore out after essentially being a regular the entire second half. His platoon splits also were pretty severe. It could be his role would be as a platoon outfielder going forward.

We've seen several injury trends with the Twins: 1) "Minor" injury keeps player out for several days, then he goes on IL for more than the minimum stay. 2) 10-day IL expands to several weeks or months. 3) Player tries to play through injury with less-than-optimum results and then is placed on IL or goes for surgery. I don't know if these scenarios come about from a lack of communication with the player or a lack of communication with medical professionals who consult with the trainer and management or something else, but they have been repeated too often to ignore. Apparently, the Twins weren't satisfied with Salazar's performance. As noted above, he could just be a scapegoat or his performance was unacceptable. I do think the Twins need to change things regarding injury. Their throwing plans should be reviewed to see if there is a critical point where injuries develop. They need to prioritize durability in both drafting and acquisitions. Finally, they need to upgrade communication between everyone so that there is better understanding of injuries earlier in the process. I hope firing Salazar is step one in revamping their diagnosis and treatment of injuries. They have finished each of the last four seasons under Rocco with a battered roster that had no chance to compete against elite teams.

While I am disappointed with the finish of 2022, I don't think the Twins were that far from being a playoff team. They are the only team in MLB with a positive run differential and a losing record. They wore down and were using a majority of Triple A players in their lineups in the second half of September and the five days of October. The Twins allowed fewer runs than the mean in 2022 despite having two of their three most frequent starters being Archer and Bundy. Next season Bailey Ober will come back after a strong close of his season, Mahle and Mahle figure to return along with Gray and Ryan, so the rotation should be better. The bullpen at the start of the season included Joe Smith, Tyler Duffey and Pagan. They figure to be far better in the 'pen with Duran established, Jax, Thielbar, Lopez and with Alcala returning. In summary, I think the pitching will be competitive. Some time around the All-Star game, I was wondering how the Twins would be able to fit all the quality major league position players on their roster. That included Jeffers, Sanchez, Kirilloff, Miranda, Polanco, Arraez, Correa, Urshela, Gordon, Larnach, Buxton, Celestino, Garlick and Kepler. Most likely Sanchez and Correa will leave as free agents and they'll have to be replaced. While that offense never performed up to reasonable expectations, there is talent there. IMHO enough talent to win a majority of games with average to above average pitching. Defensively, the team is mostly pretty good with its front-line players and less so with the next wave. I think that Miranda can be adequate at third or first, Arraez is decent at second base and acceptable at first and that Nick Gordon is a better defender in the outfield than he is in the infield. Injuries hurt the Twins in 2022, without question. Some of their best talent comes saddled with the term "injury prone" or having a chronic injury. I guess I respect medical professionals enough to believe their opinions on recovery and ability to perform and that information will be available to the front office. Continuing to believe guys will be available over the course of a full season when they haven't been able to do that is a recipe for continuing disappointment. A change in philosophy has to be part of the front office's plan from now on. I know this is easier said than done. A magic wand can't be waved to make Buxton, Kirilloff and a host of pitchers durable, but the risk/reward on acquiring players needs to be reevaluated. Some of this blight of injuries is bad luck and if that continues, Falvey, Levine and Baldelli may well find themselves looking for work somewhere else. In the scope of this topic, I'll say, probably without any real reason to believe it, that the Twins injuries will not be as pervasive as in 2021 or 2022. Finally, concerning the front office and the manager. These are smart youngish guys who had a blush of success in 2019 and 2020 (if you want to count the shortened pandemic season), but two years of losing baseball puts them all on the spot. They need to improve the product on the field and adjust some of their policies, particularly on the medical side. On the field, I think they need more speed and more bat-to-ball skills. In this era, strikeouts will continue to happen and every fan base will continue to be frustrated about their inability to advance runners and hit with runners in scoring position, having better bat-to-ball skills will help. They will need to figure out shortstop and probably acquire a catcher to share time with Ryan Jeffers. I also think that adding another starter better than Gray and Ryan should be done, but it seems the front office isn't convinced of that. The brain trust is smart enough to make good moves to improve this team. I'll add one specific comment about Rocco--I don't think he's the primary reason the club has had a losing record the last two years, but I don't think he's the primary reason they won over 100 in '19.

After considering this for a day, yes the Twins need to upgrade over Kyle Garlick. His age, lack of durability and extreme platoon splits profile him as a RH hitting specialist and the Twins need more than that. The rest of the outfield contingent also presents serious durability issues. In each of the last two years Larnach, Kirilloff and Buxton couldn’t finish the season, Max Kepler has faded in the stretch the last three years and has been impacted by injuries. Mark Contreras and probably Matt Wallner never should have seen a major league field. They need a (near) full-time outfielder and it would be desirable if he had some speed and center field capabilities.

A little sidebar here--is it still the case that teams get to protect additional guys if one of their players is chosen in the Rule V draft? So, for example if someone like Camargo or Isola is picked in the Rule V, the Twins could pull back more players, like Sisk and Headrick (if they were originally unprotected). While it looked bad in 2021, the loss of Baddoo (also another LH hitter) doesn't sting so much following his sophomore year. The Twins lost Wells in 2021, as well, and that looks like the larger loss because Wells looks like he will be a serviceable pitcher for some time.

Post-All Star game, Arraez hit .289 with a .326 OBP. His second half OPS+ was 103. I love what Arraez provides, but his overall value this year and going forward is good, but not great. He’s a good player and I commend him for going out at less than 100% and learning a new position. I don’t think he’s untouchable, but it should take a lot to move him.

Andrus might be a candidate as the bridge SS if Correa is playing elsewhere next year. He’s been pretty good for the Sox after a long slumber as a hitter.

When is the last time the Twins scored 10 runs?

Gio is no Josh Donaldson… and I think that’s a good thing.

Arraez might get seven plate appearances today.

I don’t think a long-shot chance to win a batting championship is worth giving Judge a chance to decompress after setting the AL record for home runs.

I wonder if they don't go with Gio at shortstop next year until Lewis/Lee are ready. Gio played a lot of shortstop for the Evil Empire down the stretch last year and was slated to be their starting shortstop until the Twins traded for Urshela and gave them Kiner-Falefa. I really don't like the idea of weakening two spots in the infield defense (third and short) even temporarily, getting both Miranda and Urshela in the lineup is a good plan. That would mean either Arraez or Kirilloff plays first base. Gio had a very good year and stayed on the field. He earned his pay raise and the free agent pickings at third base are pretty meager. The Twins should definitely bring him back for his last arbitration season.