stringer bell

Two thoughts in response to this post. 1) The best athletes/defenders for the Twins were pretty good on defense. That would include Kepler, who most people are ready to jettison and would also include retaining Correa. Despite metrics that put the Twins slightly below average in pitching, they were slightly below the mean in allowing runs. 2) Falvey can and maybe should get lots of criticism, but he has been willing to take risks. The trades for Kiner-Falefa, Paddack and Gio and Sanchez were bold and contained risk.

I agree that having a pitcher better than Sonny Gray is a reasonable goal and would be a large step toward better outcomes in future seasons. There are not a lot of top guys available this off season. I think Rodon would be the best fit of the lot and it helps that he isn't ancient (turns 30 in December) and throws left handed. Rodon's injury history probably needs to be considered, but he worked the most innings he has ever pitched this past season.

I agree with much of what you are saying. Further, it was an embarrassment to be in contention and have an outfield consisting of three of (green rookie) Wallner, Gordon, Celestino and Jake Cave. What I don't agree with is that the Twins will be without their top five outfielders as much as they were this year. I don't expect all five that were out for the stretch run in 2022 (Buxton, Kepler, Garlick, Larnach and Kirilloff) to stay healthy all year or be ready for a stretch run, but I would expect more than zero to be basically healthy for that duration. Saying that, I do expect better health for the outfield than 2022. Having an upgraded replacement for Garlick and having two or three capable outfielders in reserve (Gordon, Celestino, Wallner) should be enough depth to have something left at the end of the season. It just hasn't happened the last two or three years.

Referring to the OP, yes the Twins could win with Iglesias, if he’s the eighth or ninth best regular, hitting somewhere between seventh and ninth in the order. The Twins need to improve offensively and in the pitching department. If they do and have average health, they will be pretty good. I agree that the team needs better production from the outfield, but a return to health isn’t out of the question.

So the question becomes, can the Twins thrive with a team containing both Arraez and Polanco? I think they can, but it will require someone moving to other positions quite frequently. Arraez can play first, second and third. Miranda can play first and third and Kirilloff, if healthy, can play first and the outfield corners.

I think more accurately, he hasn’t been healthy except for 2021. Polanco had ankle surgery in both 2019 and 2020 IIRC. While he had some nicks in ‘21, he played in 152 games and was the Twins best and most consistent player.

Until the free agent shortstop's $$$$ are added!

Danny Coulombe DFAed and has declared free agency. The official roster still is over 40 players, but at least seven players will become free agents after the World Series.

Hamilton hasn't been trusted to hit in some time. Yes, he supplies elite base running and really good defense, but he really isn't a big league hitter any more, if he ever was. He was an ideal guy to add as a 28th player and come in to run for one of the Twins several slow runners. They really didn't get many chances to use Hamilton when he could change the game. Hamilton is a free agent. I doubt that he will get a major league contract.

Nice job Norm!!

I don't know if that is true or not, but I think the defensive portion of WAR is suspect. Josh Donaldson comes to the Bronx and suddenly is saving dozens of runs resulting in about a 2.4 WAR despite having a 94 OPS+. Kiner-Falefa also has supposedly nice defensive grades despite his defense being criticized by Yankee fans and getting benched in the playoffs. Until it is proven to me, I'm going to believe that defensive metrics are subjective.

I certainly think that signing Andrus should be explored if the Twins fail to retain Correa. BBRef listed Andrus with Iglesias in the tier below the "Big Four" among free agent shortstops. It is true that this year was the first in some time where Andrus has posted positive hitting statistics. If I were to project, I would expect league average offense and league average shortstop defense. In looking at 2023 blueprints for Twins Daily, there seems to be quite a difference of opinion on what salary Andrus might command. Since his offense has been substandard for several years with the exception of last year, I would think his salary would not be close to what he received on his now-completed contract. I would think all that he could get would be $5-8M, but that isn't based on any real figures. If someone has a more exact projection of his salary I'd like to hear it.

The money is there to sign someone to a nine-digit (>$100M) contract. The three biggest areas of need are 1) catcher 2) shortstop and 3) starting pitcher. At this time, the Twins can pencil in five capable starting pitchers and a starting catcher. They don't have a shortstop that projects to hit near league average or field at a major league level. I think the Twins should sign a bridge shortstop and count on one of their prospects (Lewis, Lee or Martin) to step in. I'd prefer that the Twins sign a complementary catcher to Jeffers and spend the big money on a starting pitcher (Rodon). One way or another, the Twins have a lot to spend. If they could retain Correa or sign Willson Contreras, I think that would be fine, but I see a real need to upgrade the top of their rotation.

Gio had a nice year last year, no question. He has modest power, doesn't walk much and is another slow guy who grounds into a ton of double plays. From my eye test, he was a solid fielder at third, probably limited range, but the position is mostly "step and dive" and will be more so with shifts being outlawed next year. It would be great to have a Gio Urshela in the lineup and hitting seventh in 120-140 games next year. He provides value for the Twins, is there another team that believes they will contend who would take Gio on at $9M as an upgrade? That is a $9M dollar question. I do say keep him unless you get fair value for him, but don't think about extending him.

He hasn't been good for several years. My guess is that he is a non-tender when arbitration salaries must be submitted. Pagan's body of work reminds me of Hansel Robles. Good fastball, but not enough of a secondary pitch combined with questionable command.

I’ve liked Andrus over Iglesias—more pop, more speed and probably better defense. I’ve mentioned this elsewhere, but what will he demand in pay? Last year was his first good offensive season since 2017 and he will be 34 for most of next season.

Some comments: having defaults tends to make the rosters look very similar. Estimated salaries are often tough to gauge—for example I think Elvis Andrus will only get a 7-figure contract. Trade scenarios vary greatly—what are Kepler and/or Polanco worth? No one know where and how significantly the injury bug will hit.

Agree on Celestino. Despite the fast start, and decent defense, he wound up with .5 WAR in 122 games and almost 400 plate appearances. To be fair, he only had 57 days of ML service going into 2022.

I think Mateo would be a "good get" in that he has speed and is a really good defender (+5 Zone Runs, +13 Runs Saved per BBRef). He was a 3 WAR player despite only an 81 OPS+. I would think he'd be the principal shortstop and a lesser fielder (Arraez, Polanco, Miranda) would be the DH on most occasions. Having six regulars for five positions (IF + DH) works in today's game, especially with a couple of the guys hitting lefty.

Not to be Debbie Downer, but I wonder if the hand and wrist injuries result from HBPs and if so, with him continuing to get hit it would seem likely that he will continue to deal with wrist and hand injuries. I guess time will tell.

To give ‘em Smalley, we’ll have to throw in three TDers.

I think Martin brings skills to the table that the Twins definitely need. He is more OBP than power and provides base stealing speed. He projects as an above-average glove in the field with versatility and he hits right handed while the Twins have few right handed hitting outfielders. To me, he should have more value to the Twins than for anyone else

I think the bullpen would be made much better by adding quality and innings from the starting staff. Duran is elite, and Thielbar, Jax and Alcala make a nice setup crew. Getting López back to his Oriole part of 2022 would make this a far above average group. Bringing the starters average closer to 6 innings would be most helpful.

He was released, not traded. Apparently that removed the vesting option.

I’m pretty certain that there was a vesting option for Andrus that he didn’t reach. He had been dreadful for years, but did come alive when acquired from Oakland. His body of work doesn’t merit an 8-digit payday, but he still does a good job in the field and was pretty good for the White Sox.