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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. stringer bell
    Thanks!
  2. stringer bell
    So the move isn’t imminent?
  3. stringer bell
    I saw it here and now removed that the Arraez-Lopez trade had been consummated. Must be close, but not official.
  4. stringer bell
    More money than I thought, but a good acquisition.
  5. stringer bell
    The sum of the Vikings’ parts is closer to equalling the quality of the team this year. I think the coaches have done a good job and I think they’ve been fortunate, too. 10-3 with a -1 points differential indicates that they aren’t dominating, but they are winning. The last five games has exposed a truly soft pass defense and they only faced one really good QB in that time. Very few football players age gracefully and the Vikings have a lot of guys looking at the downside of their careers. Maybe they can surprise most of us, but I don’t hold out long term hope for this group, so it seems like now or not for a long time.
  6. stringer bell
    Well, maybe due to the team's history, Twins fans pay more attention to the Rule V. Nothing to see here.
  7. stringer bell
    I am too old to advocate a total rebuild. Three or four years (or a decade if you're KC) to have a watchable team is too much of my future. There is enough talent to put a good offense (and decent defense) on the field. I think the Twins staff's evaluation of possible table setters (Martin, Julien and Lee) has a lot to do with how willing they would be to part with the proven Arraez.
  8. stringer bell
    I think Arraez' value is at an all-time high. He is under team control for three more years and coming off a year when he won a batting championship and a silver slugger. This is the ideal time to trade him, knowing that he may well win several batting championships in the future. We know what he is: a unicorn in several respects--he makes contact, works counts and sprays hits all over the field. He has worked to be a better fielder (and I think he is more than passable at either first or second). His lifetime average over .300 is very rare in this pitcher and power friendly era. We also know what Arraez is not--he has significant platoon splits, limited power, and less than average running speed. He's dealt with leg injuries the last three seasons and there is some indication that there are chronic problems with his knees. A deal would have to bring back quite a bit, but I don't think Luis Arraez is a cornerstone that a team is built around.
  9. stringer bell
    I'm not opposed to trading Arraez, but I think the Twins should get major league talent back for him, not just prospects. I wonder if there is a fit for Kepler to be traded for a similar player who hits right handed, putting that guy in the utility OF spot in place of Garlick, who is limited defensively as well as hitting against same handed pitchers.
  10. stringer bell
    Not a huge Celestino fan and I don't really see a lot of upside in his game. That said, the plethora of injuries gave him playing time when he wasn't ready in 2021. However, Celestino wasn't in Minnesota for the entire season in 2021. His combined service time for the last two years is 1.057, and he had pretty much regular playing time in the last half of 2022. Was he overmatched? Yes, probably, but the two months with the major league club in '21 didn't ruin his career IMHO. I hope he is on the St. Paul roster come Opening Day, but I don't think it is about developing a future superstar or even a starter. I just don't think he is that good.
  11. stringer bell
    Yes, the Twins do need two catchers. According to MLBTraderumos.com, they're looking for a job share with Jeffers and somebody else. I'd like to see someone that compliments Jeffers--LH hiiter, above average throwing out base stealers--but I think other parts of the defensive picture will be important. It is far too soon to give up on Jeffers' offense IMHO, but having someone with offensive upside as an alternative would be prudent. I think there are plenty of options for catcher #3. The Twins had two of them (Godoy and Leon) and had a third banged up with injuries in St. Paul (Sisco). Ideally, such a player should only spend a couple weeks in the majors, but it might be wise to shoot a little higher and have a guy who could step in and provide league average offense.
  12. stringer bell
    Since Larnach has 1.101 years of service, I’d say “no chance”, but you do know that don’t you?
  13. stringer bell
    Adding someone to the 40-man roster would fill it before the Rule V draft. There still needs to be several additions to that roster with only one obvious DFA/release (Contreras). I do expect the Twins will be talking to free agent catchers and Narváez looks like a good fit.
  14. stringer bell
    120 games would be ideal, Production something like his 2020 season would be fantastic.
  15. stringer bell
    The reason I've liked Correa long-term is that he is still under 30. Paying a Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera or even Albert Pujols superstar dollars for their declining years is something I don't want to see. Correa should be a great ballplayer for the proposed highest salary years. If he was still at the top of his game after four years and wanted a bigger deal, more power to him. Thank you and goodbye. Regarding Lewis, he is an "if" for 2023. If he returns in full health coupled with a Correa signing, he is a huge trade chip or a future fixture in the outfield or third base.
  16. stringer bell
    I would include Luis Arraez winning a batting title and Silver Slugger.
  17. stringer bell
    I honestly think the time to trade him is now. Arraez won hardware, but he was barely an average hitter after the All-Star break. Settling him at either 1B or DH means there won’t easily be room for a bat-first type in the future. He isn’t going to get faster and it is questionable that he will stay healthy long-term. His walk rate plummeted in the second half and he’s always had pretty dramatic platoon splits. Arraez brings elite bat-to-ball skills and excellent OBP. Lee and/or Martin may be able to supply those elements as soon as next year. Circling back to the OP, the Twins might be wise to extend him, but only (IMHO) if the extension makes him more tradable.
  18. stringer bell
    Urshela, Correa, (healthy) Polanco and either Kirilloff or Arraez at first would be fine. The main reasons for the woeful scores this year were 1) Polanco playing at much less than 100% and 2) replacements (Miranda and Gordon) being poor defenders. We don't know who the principal 2023 SS will be, but if it is a strong defender (Correa), then Farmer could get plenty of reps at third, where he figures to be better than Miranda and be a strong backup for the shortstop. A healthy Polanco or healthy Arraez will be fine at second. I think the best defender at first would be a healthy Kirilloff, but he hasn't logged consistent innings there. Gordon, despite limited experience in the OF, looks to be a much better option in the outfield than the infield.
  19. stringer bell
    Many on this site have disparaged RBI as a key stat. There has been some pushback the other way, as well. I would like to point out that last year had 78 RBI, twelve more RBI than any player on the Twins, and even if measured on an RBI per plate appearance, he would have been one of the top run producers on the Twins in 2022.
  20. stringer bell
    Elvis made more than $14M last year on the last guaranteed year of an 8-year contract. His OPS+ numbers since he signed the mega-deal are 110, 105, 78, 78, 60, 73 and 103 (in 2022). Texas paid half of Andrus' salary for the years he was in Oakland. This is a case where someone was vastly overpaid. Elvis had a pretty good year this year, really his first decent year since 2017. If he had put up another sub-80 OPS+ I don't think he would even be considered for a major league contract. That said, I have been of the opinion that he would be a decent gamble to acquire for one year to bridge the gap for Twins' prospects, but only if the price was right (I would guess $5-8M).
  21. stringer bell
    Regardless if it is Option A, B or C, Kyle Farmer should be in the lineup versus left handed pitching. He has superior splits against left handers than any left handed hitter the Twins have on their roster and also better than Polanco. Option A: I think is most likely and I am not opposed to it if the Twins spend money to fortify their pitching staff and perhaps add a slugging outfielder or first baseman. As a starting shortstop, I'd probably project Farmer to be below average, but not among the worst. Option B: With Farmer in a job share with Miranda and each playing other positions on occasion makes sense. Injuries will happen and there is plenty of positional flexibility with Twins' infielders. Option C: Utility, but ultimately short side of a platoon makes sense and emphasizes Farmer's two greatest strengths--positional flexibility and strong splits against left handed pitching.
  22. stringer bell
    If I’m not mistaken, Wallner has almost exclusively played RF. If Larnach and Wallner man the corners, Wallner will be in right.
  23. stringer bell
    Excellent comments on Pagan's performance last year and also in the immediate past. I'll add this....all season Pagan didn't show sufficient command with any pitch and too many fastballs and off-speed pitches ended up in the cheap seats.
  24. stringer bell
    My bad. I missed it. I don’t think a .268 BABIP is even a standard deviation better than league average. I really believe with a good ground ball rate and low home run rate he will be successful going forward.
  25. stringer bell
    This is my debate, so I would like more information. I don't readily have access to BABIP numbers, so I will ask. What was Lopez' BABIP for the entire 2022 season? To fit my narrative, it would normalize by being above average for the last third of the season (his time with the Twins) while in total being near average for a MLB season.
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