stringer bell

IIRC, Ober didn’t hit the IL until the tail end of 2021, then only so someone else got a shot to start a late September game. The Twins limited his innings, mostly because due to injury and COVID, he hadn’t thrown many innings in the preceding years. I do agree that future acquisitions should prioritize pitchers who project as durable.

It seems most clubs are reducing their 40-man roster to the low 30s to make room to protect minor leaguers from Rule V and sign free agents.

Not sure if commenting on a blog entry bumps it, but I do want to again say that Martin's skill set is a fit for the Twins needs, as supported by his performance in the AFL. He's hit, stolen bases and played multiple positions, including center field. I hope he gets plenty of run in Spring Training and puts himself in the conversation for promotion to the majors early in 2023.

Not sure I agree. If their OBP is "pretty similar" as you state, Julien certainly profiles as a superior power threat and thus would project to have a much higher OPS. Personally, I'm not sure if Julien can sustain such high walk rates and maintain his elite OBP, but if he does, he's going to be a good offensive MLB player.

It seems to me that Johnson’s calling card was teaching and technical. He was able to get extra spin and mph for pitchers. Can his successor to the same? For the season, I think the Twins pitchers overperformed expectations and projections. There really doesn’t seem to be any evidence that they were able to avoid injury, although several (Gray, Ryan and Ober) missed time, but not for arm issues.

There is a lot more talent available for ‘23 than there was for ‘22. I think that one more proven arm needs to be added and it would be good if he was a lefty (Cleveland continues to show more vulnerability to lefties than righties). In addition, the Twins would be well-served to have a guy or two who can go multiple innings.

After consideration, I'd probably non-tender all three. Stashak has a small margin for error as a reliever. He suffered a significant injury and his recovery may or may not be complete. Garlick is limited and 30 years old and Pagan hasn't been effective for several years.

Sign him just to trade him? There are lots of other fish in the sea, many with a lot more upside than Dylan Bundy.

MLB Trade Rumors says that the deadline for finalizing rosters is November 15. That would mean that promotion to the 40-man roster of players the Twins want to protect will be done in the next eight days. The non-tender deadline is November 18, and the Twins will have to decide then if they want to non-tender any arbitration-eligible players. Stashak, Garlick and Pagan would all be in that category.

I agree that Bundy did his job here. However with his truly limited upside, I hope that the Twins don't pick him up at any price. They appear to have enough depth that they won't have someone like Bundy starting games this coming year. If they do, the season is probably over anyway. I don't know if Sano will get a major league contract or not, but he'll get a chance to show what he's got with someone. I don't think he'll ever make contact often enough to be a good offensive player. I really wish that Archer could have built up more during 2022, but the Twins can't afford to have a guy that is guaranteed to go no more than five innings every time out.

In preparation for setting the 40-man roster, the Twins officially declined the options for Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer and Miguel Sanó. I count 37 on the 40-man roster. Still included on the roster are Emilio Pagán, Kyle Garlick and Mark Contreras.

I'll answer for Game &-91--part of the trade package for Pablo Lopez.

Miranda was a key contributor while the Twins were holding first place, but did fade quite a bit late along with most of the team. I think his body of work will get him on the team to start the season no matter what. If he were to struggle in April, he could be sent down. Miranda’s defense wasn’t good this year, but there is no reason he can’t be adequate at either corner.

Absolutely no certainty in many of these situations, but here are my opinions/predictions (responding to several responses, not just the OP): Miranda will be a regular, playing first, third and DH. Injuries and other decisions will determine where he will play. Gray will not be traded. This isn't the NBA or even the NFL. Trade requests are pretty infrequent and Gray has free agency around the corner. Celestino should start 2023 in the minors. I thought he was okay in the field, but he's got to hit more than he did last year or in his cameo in 2021. Maeda will be a starter and be healthy. His performance will be middle-of-the-rotation worthy. The Twins will get about 40 starts from Mahle/Paddack/Ober. The season will be determined by the health of two players--Kirilloff and Buxton--if both are healthy, the Twins lineup will improve its proficiency, but if neither can play half a season, the Twins offense will be in the doldrums as it was this past year.

I think Gordon is a better outfielder than infielder. I don’t think he’s great in center field, but he’s fine in left. I think Larnach and Kirilloff (if healthy) are major league hitters and capable fielders and Kirilloff would be a better first baseman than Arraez. K & L just need to prove it on the field and they haven’t to this point.

I guess that if Arraez had played more games at first, I would have felt like he should have won the Gold Glove, but he only played 65 games at first.

The Twins allowed only 48 unearned runs, fifth in MLB. While the Twins were 19th in earned runs allowed, they were 14th in overall runs allowed. The average number of runs allowed is 694, the Twins allowed 684. Presuming official scoring is consistent, the Twins defense saved runs over an average defense.

Polanco was good last year and if he’s healthy, he will be fine at second. The Twins allowed fewer unearned than most. Team ERA was higher than the mean, but runs allowed was below the mean. The team they put out on Opening Day was pretty good defensively. Replacements not so much.

Coaching is part of the base running problem, but personnel is even more of a problem. Whatever position players the Twins add should be good base runners and expert base stealers. In addition base running needs to be emphasized more than in the past. On the defensive side, both the pitchers and catchers will need to work to limit steals. I think the preponderance of right handed pitchers makes a difference in stolen bases allowed, so unless there is more turnover in the pitching staff, the Twins will be at a disadvantage allowing SBs.

I don’t think it is at all fair to compare Jeffers and Kepler as hitters. Jeffers has a grand total of 591 plate appearances spread out over parts of three seasons. On Opening Day he will be 25 years old. Defensively, I think it’s a mixed bag. The raw numbers of throwing are substandard, and he had quite a few passed balls and allowed plenty of wild pitches. I don’t know where I can find “Catcher ERA”, but I would venture a guess that Jeffers was better (by a lot) than Sánchez and that the won-loss record when Jeffers started at catcher was better than for Sánchez. To me, that would be a function of his ability to call a game.

Ideally a time-sharing plan should be in place. Whichever catcher is going better should get more time. It also would be good to have a left handed hitter to share time with Jeffers. I think Narvaez, Barnhart or Vasquez would be excellent compliments to Jeffers. Castro has been injured a lot since leaving Minnesota and he will play most of next season at 36 years old.

Do remember that a catcher has won a batting title since Mauer—Buster Posey won the NL batting championship in 2012.

I’m mostly a Jeffers believer. He obviously has some flaws (low BA, throwing), but he seems to be a really good receiver and has potential at the plate. I think the wise and prudent thing to do is to sign a complementary catcher—someone who has platoon advantages against RH pitching with a good rep for throwing out base stealers. In my mind that player is Narváez. Both catchers will see plenty of time, even a clear #1 catcher would be behind the plate no more than 2/3 of the time. I don’t know if anyone in the Twins’ system is ready to be a third catcher ready to shuttle back and forth from St. Paul to Minneapolis, but that role also needs to be filled.

I’d like to see a RH version of Kepler (at least as good) to man right field, perhaps on a platoon basis when/if all are healthy. If this guy could be Buxton’s sub or injury replacement, so much the better. I do think that the position players underperformed their stats last year—they should have scored more runs based on their team OPS and their RISP and “close and late” stats were abysmal. A running game and more contact and situational hitting is needed. It appeared at the beginning of the year that the Twins had sufficient depth to withstand a normal amount of injuries, but there was more than a normal amount and the depth was used up. An outfield of Wallner-Celestino-Cave wasn’t supposed to be happening on the west side of the river.

Good topic and discussion. I do want to point out that Jeffers only had 20 at bats after the All-Star break. He shouldn't have been included given your original minimums.