ThejacKmp

It’s nice to have that arbitrary deadline but that wasn’t the way the market was working. Other teams were stalling and the market was very slow developing because the top players weren’t signing. Guys don’t just sign with someone during that period, they wait and see what the market will be. You’re not going to get movement unless someone thinks “Yeah, this is the best I’m going to get.” So you have to overpay (like the Rockies with Holland, a bad contract no matter what he did this year). You would have paid exceptionally more for Cobb had you signed him early because you’d be paying against what people thought the market would be, not what it was. His contract looks rough now at four years and $57 million. Think what you would’ve had to pay if you’d moved quickly. Another year? Another $20 million?

To finish my thoughts for 2018 free agents, the big contracts were Arrieta, Darvish, JD Martinez, Hosmer, Cain, and Upton. The Twins were in on Darvish and it never felt like Arrieta was a match so no issues on the pitching choices. The OF contracts to Cain and Upton look good through a year but I would have reacted negatively if the Twins were not going with Rosario, Kepler and Buxton in the OF this year. I was (and am) excited about all three. I think you can certainly say the Twins would look awesome with JD Martinez at DH (though that contract could be tough by the end) so that’s a place they could have been active. He’d have fit well with the Twins. It would’ve taken knowing the OF was going to suck or being very confident about JD Martinez. Not a lot to blame the FO for - not a ton of great fits and they were likely right to trust internal youth. They should be in decent shape this offseason. 3B is relatively strong (Machado, Moose, Donaldson, Escobar) and that seems a place of need. Though Sano finishing strong might change that (and might move them back towards Escobar at 2B since he could move to 3B regularly once Gordon/Arraez is ready). 1B/DH is a lot harder. With Mauer, Austin and Sano they have some options but Sano off of 3B creates a hole there. The free agent market is pitiful. This is a place that the Twins could use trade pieces or perhaps take another shot on a Logan Morrison type. Might work better the second time? I’m less inclined to move at catcher. Castro should be back and Garver is looking like a nice backup/1B/OF. Next year is a big year for Rortvedt – if he’s doing well in AA next year that may impact the Twins decision making. Same thing with Jeffers at the lower levels. Overall, catcher seems like a place for the Twins to wait another year for more information. You can always use starting pitching. I expect the Twins will be in on that market. Kershaw seems likely to go back to the Dodgers but Dallas Keuchel, David Price, JA Happ, Garret Richards, Charlie Morton, Eovaldi, Ervin Santana, and of course, Bartolo Colon make for an interesting (if not exactly top-heavy) market. I hope the Twins take a similar path to pitching this offseason as last. In on big starters but not getting desperate since they have nice young internal options (Berrios, Gibson, Romero, Pineda, Odorizzi, Mejia, Gonsalves, Thorpe is not a bad crew – though I wouldn’t mind one solid veteran signing). Making some smart free agent reliever moves. And then I’d like to see them go get someone in the infield. Machado seems unlikely but they should be in on him to a point. As a fall back, getting an Escobar or a Donaldson on a shorter deal would be a nice bridge to the next generation.

The Twins get a bad rap on Morrison. It’s a time when launch angles are changing for hitters so it wasn’t crazy to think that he might be a 125 OPS guy instead of a 105 OPS guy. They didn’t pay him like the 125 guy, they paid him like a 105 guy and they got an option for a second year in case he was a 125 guy. Clearly we’ve learned last year was the outlier but it’s mainly been some bad BABIP and maybe some rust in April that’s kept him from being the 105 guy. That guy would have been a nice DH piece in the lineup. I can’t fault them for Logan Morrison signing. The process was sound. I think a better argument can be made for them cutting him loose earlier but that’s a hard call to make. You never know when a guy is going to turn it around and it’s not like anyone wanted to see Vargas up in his stead or more Grossman. And there’s something to be said for sticking with free agents you sign since it sends a message to other free agents that they won’t lose their job if they struggle at first. We’ll see if they get anything for him in August, that would go a long way towards making their commitment to him worthwhile.

Who did you want them to go get last winter? Who were the guys they should have been in on? In my mind, the Twins made some strong moves in relief (and spycake is right that not trusting the young arms is the issue, not the free agents signed as aside from Belisle, the vets were as good as you could expect collectively) and decent moves for starting pitching (went for Darvish, didn’t go too far and then got a solid 1 year guy). After that, I can’t see where they should have been more active. The position players were set and you’d be upset to bring someone in to take a spot from a young guy. Sure Buxton, Sano and to a lesser extent Kepler have had bad seasons but you wanted to roll with those guys because they’re the future. I look at opening day and aside from Polanco being suspended, that’s who I wanted the Twins to have at that position. I don’t see where the Twins should have been more active last offseason in Free Agency.

I think we should add that the down year has highlighted how well the FO prepared for all possible outcomes. They didn't mortgage the Twins future with a bunch of Ricky Nolasco contracts. They knew that if things didn't work out they could pivot and take advantage of the expanded market two wild cards often brings to sellers. They took a shot at making a run this year but didn't mortgage the future. Love it.

I think you know as well as I do that I used those three teams to showcase the “hot take” by Number3. The Twins FO has been lauded by scouts and the national press for its draft the past two years, its free agency signings last year, and its trade deadline maneuvering this year. Anyone who says the Twins are the worst-run team in baseball is showcasing their ignorance. They may not be the best run team in baseball but they’re definitely upper half. They don’t profile to have anyone better than Mauer at DH/1B in 2019. Rooker isn’t going to be ready til mid-season at the earliest (and plays OF as well). Austin might be ready but may also just be a AAAA player. He’s not someone you’re writing in with a pen. From there you’re looking at free agents and I’d encourage you to go look at who is available. It’s not a pretty list. Joe Mauer on a 1-2 year deal makes a lot of sense for a team with a big hole at 1B/DH/3B (precluding Sano moving over) and a need for OBP. Some people just like to be negative. The Twins glass is 3/4 full right now. Lots of organizations would swap spots in a heartbeat. Young marketable players currently up, a beautiful park, a solid regional market, a well-respected front office, and a top 5-10 farm system to augment a team that was in the playoffs last year. This year didn’t go to plan but that doesn’t mean the plan was bad. Life happens.

Yeah, he'll start in AA next year. By midseason he may be in a place where he could cover a ten day DL stint. That's if everything goes well of course.

They're in year 4 or 5 of the rebuild. We all forget they've been competitive in two of the last four years and have the #6 farm system. When I say upswing, I mean when the next wave of talent comes up. People get too focused on the here and now. The Twins have good pieces now and good pieces coming up. Many organizations (not in big markets maybe) would be very happy to be in the Twins position. Glass is 3/4 full folks.

1.) Ummm, have you met the Marlins? The Padres? The Reds? The Twins have their warts but you're just being negative, per usual. 2) The 2016 #1 pick is Mickey Moniak and he's with the Phillies, not hitting in High A ball. I guess the Twins could try to trade for him but he's not that great a prospect so not sure why they world. 3.) The Braves were awful for years. They now are on the upswing. That's the way things go. In two years the Twins will be on the upswing hopefully. Not sure how you want the Twins to somehow fast forward time. Rebuilding takes time.

Need a bigger sample.

I mean, Wilson will be in the same position next year I imagine. Starting in AAA and needing an injury to make it to the majors. So he may never play MLB again but I don't think it says anything about the Twins. Most team's third catcher is a guy like Wilson. Interesting to see what the Twins do next year. Castro and Garver seem like the MLB duo. Is Rortvedt close enough to be the emergency one? I think maybe by July or August but not to start so I imagine we'll end up with a Wilson/Gimenez type.

September 1st. Plenty of time in September.

Nope. You want to see if you can get something back for Morrison, Forsythe, and Santana - all of whom should make it through waivers (Morrison already has). Wilson has value if you bring up young pitching. You want them working with a veteran catcher, not a guy unlikely to play the position in MLB. Reed is under contract next year and is injured. You'll get nothing for him now. He should be held til the offseason, when he'd have trade value (or can be a key part of the 2019 pen).

1. Leadership is not something that has to be gained over time. Sometimes it is but other times, someone just emerges as a leader because they have those characteristics. Joe has never been a huge leader and he’s been around for a long time. That’s just not him. Other guys come in and are immediately leaders. Calling Reed and Rodney tourists is irrelevant name calling. 2. Similarly, Belisle’s success is immaterial. The biggest stars are not always the leaders, sometimes that’s another guy. Eduardo Escobar was a leader and he was a utility infielder for years. He was a leader because of his attitude and innate interpersonal skills. Guys understand that baseball is hard and that every team has roles – there’s no reason Belisle sucking changes how the players view him as long as he’s still giving his all and being a good dude. 3. Along that line, respect doesn’t come from your play, it comes from how you carry yourself. Most of the guys who become managers were terrible utility infielders and backup catchers, not stars. They became managers because they had the passion for the game and the leadership ability even when not good. Maybe especially when not good. Again, Joe Mauer was never a leader, even when he was the best player on a team. 4. The fact that you cite Torii Hunter is ludicrous. None of the players on the 2015 team knew him except Mauer. And he savaged Mauer in the press on the way out of town six years before. Torii was seen as a leader because of his abilities in the clubhouse and his veteran status (two things Belisle could have). Which brings me to . . . 5. The chief fallacy of your argument/diatribe is that you know that its hogwash that Belisle is valuable in the clubhouse. You have no concept of the inner workings of the Twins clubhouse. You can’t site anything where players don’t respect him. You’re conflating ineffectiveness on the field with ineffectiveness as part of the team. Ridiculous.

That said, every single article about a position player pitching features that narrative. The coach asks if they've pitched and throws them in there. I don't think this is Molitor, this is every team. It's a good idea to have this charted though. Only reason not to is that you want guys to not be thinking about it maybe? Seems kind of a lame reason but baseball's a head game.

1.) He is on the disabled list with a bad wrist. It would be detrimental to his healing process to play baseball games. 2.) Byron Buxton’s speed is his greatest attribute. Asking him not to take chances on the bases is like asking J.D. Martinez not to swing for the fences. Why would you do it? 3.) Major league games attract tons of media attention and fans. If a guy is working on something and struggling, you don’t want him to have all of that media attention. 4.) Minor league games don’t matter as much – it’s okay to tell a guy not to swing at anything except curve balls or to take a few pitches to work on hitting with two strikes. It’s hard to do that in the MLB when games matter and you can’t experiment as much. 5.) Minor league teams have hitting instructors attached who can work one-on-one with a specific hitter. Those are not as prevalent at the MLB level, where guys are supposed to know what they’re doing already. I could come up with more if you wanted.

Really putting the huh in huhguy.

Yeah, what does that mean? That's a super weird statement.

You forget Pineda for starting pitching next year.

Two of the worst teams in the AL? Overstatement. The Royals are but the Twins are 9 out of 15. They're not awful but their playoff odds are not 0.

Oh man, I forgot Sidney Ponson. That was bad.

Oh man. Come find me here when Machado signs a ten year deal. He's 26, someone is going to give him that. I like the creativity above but someone is going to give him $30-$35 million a year for ten years. And an opt out after year four. That deal is fun but it won't beat the big market teams. Guys like him don't hit the market at the age he did and after the seasons he's had. Harper might not get that long of a deal but he'll still do well.

I think the question is, where are the gaps? I don’t know the market (someone else likely does) but looking at the Twins: Every team can use starting pitching, the Twins are no exception. The pen seems okay with a lot of young arms. I could see the Twins making a Reed signing but they aren’t going after the high-end types like Andrew Miller (although, Cleveland connection . . .) Seems more likely they do what they did this offseason with a few veterans. And that’s probably smart. The outfield could potentially use someone but it’s hard to see who the Twins would get. Rosario, Buxton and Kepler seem likely to start the year and Cave, Wade, Austin and Rooker are in the mix as backups. It’s hard to sign an elite free agent unless you give them an everyday job. I guess the Twins could get a corner OF and shift Kepler to a 4th OF/backup 1B/DH type but that seems like giving up early on him as an OF. I’m not sure the Twins have a real OF need, though someone on a short-term high dollar contract could be doable. Middle infield is a spot you could spend but it seems like more of a one-to-two-year situation with Gordon, Javier, Lewis, and Arraez coming up and Polanco already set. There’s no one for spring training next year but that seems unlikely to be true in September. Catcher is intriguing but there’s rarely someone amazing on the FA market and with Garver and Castro, that’s a decision that can be kicked a year down the line probably (when you’ll know more about Rortvedt). Not an obvious spot to spend. Third base is the one place the Twins could really spend on someone long-term. Sano is a bit of an unknown and isn’t a five year third baseman anyways and there’s no one pushing from the minors (though that MI depth could spill over to 3B if things work out well). But it’s a spot you could go get someone. Machado would work but he’s the premier free agent and will be hard to get. After that it’s Donaldson, Moustakas, Escobar etc. I’d love Escobar for three years to cover that 2B spot in 2019 and shift to 3B when a young ‘un is ready. First base/DH is another spot you could spend but outside of Nelson Cruz, it’s slim pickings there. Seems the Twins would be best to use a mixture of bargain bin, Mauer, and young guys like Austin/Sano/Rooker at 1B. So realistically, the only places the Twins have a need are 3B and starting pitching. Those are going to be interesting places to look. P.S. I’d actually say that weird, I could see the Twins in on Harper more than Machado. He seems more likely to want something with an out after two years and that wouldn’t bother the Twins so much since they have OF depth coming up. If they’re willing to gamble with a big front-loaded two years . . .

Man, I hope people don't really think the Twins are going to get Machado. Some big market team is going to give him 10-12 years and the Twins can't afford that. Big market teams can have $30 mill+ per year on one guy for that long and take the potential for 3-4 bad years at the end but small market teams can't. Anything the Twins offer (he won't be interested in the Bonilla thing, he's too young for that to matter), bigger market teams will match and exceed. If the Twins sign Machado for 10 years I'll be super worried. They'll have to be the highest bidder and that's punching out of their class. That's a lot riding on one guy not getting a lingering injury.

Yeah, they're lucky they didn't sign him, not smart. The two aren't mutually exclusive. For instance, the Angels were smart to sign Ohtani. And if he never pitches again on this contract, they'll be unlucky (but not stupid since they paid so little. Maybe a bad example. Oh well.)