ThejacKmp

Joe Mauer is in no way why the Twins didn't compete this year. Blame falls on a lot of guys before Mauer: Dozier, Sano, Buxton, Santana, Polanco, Castro, Lynn, Kepler, Reed, etc. Let's tone down the awful consequences of Joe Mauer putting butts in seats. Mauer is not the detriment you make him out to be. He's having an average year after having a nice year last year.

Numerous articles on TD compare him favorable to those two. I know Seth or Nick wrote one comparing the pace and stats those three put up in imagining Lewis's future path - Lewis's stats have compared favorably with those two to this point. And scouts have moved away from saying he'll have to move positions and think he can stick at short for the time being. I think Buxton is a prime example. Just because the results aren't up to par doesn't mean the process was wrong. You wouldn't want to have signed three free agent outfielders because then you'd have Buxton tearing up AAA and having no room in the majors (outfield is harder to compare because you have three spots but you get my meaning). Planning a team involves making choices. There aren't infinite resources. That means balancing the present need and future needs. Teams that try to focus on the present too strongly (like the Padres' shopping spree five years back or KC not moving its core to rebuild it's farm system) tend to face long rebuilds. The Twins have money to spend but the question isn't "What makes us better in 2019?" They need to take into consideration organization strengths and weaknesses when making free agent decisions. Catching and starting pitching are weaknesses while middle infield and outfield just aren't. Investing in long-term assets at those positons should only be done if the value is great (e.g. Machado, Harper) This isn't something simple like "Go get the best player." The Twins need to think in five and ten year increments, not just one year.

I get that to a point. I'm not avoiding starting pitching because I have Gonsalves or Romero or Thorpe. I have huge hopes for those guys but if someone's there, you solve that problem later. But Lewis is a #1 overall draft pick who is rocketing through the minors and getting comparisons to Correia and Lindor. That's not a guy you put a roadblock in front of - even if you can move him to CF, do you really want to delay his MLB time teaching him a new position? Yeah you could move Polanco and trade Arraez but the Twins aren't the Yankees. They need some homegrown talent to serve as the base for their free agency decisions. I'm just not convinced that targeting a free agent 3B option makes the most sense. I'd rather they leave Sano at 3B, target pitching in free agency, and bring in a stopgap (Mauer or others) at 1B while waiting for guys like Rooker, AK, Larnach and Baddoo to develop, I guess I'm less focused on now. The Twins are entering a nice window and I'd like to see them Cubs it by going after pitching to augment young position player talent.

An AL team might just go four years and someone will go three for sure. You're buying out the age 33-36 years. The back end isn't great but you're not in the Miguel Cabrera late 30s conundrum. And you have the ability to move him to 1B/DH after the first year or two if health demands it. He's only three years removed from an MVP, two years from a top-5 finish, and is a team leader. There's a lot to like if you look at his medicals and feel comfortable. That's an if of course. Wouldn't hate it for the Twins, they could use a face of the franchise to tide them over as youngsters develop. Not sure the front office will take on that risk though.

The QO is a big part. I've been reading that he likely won't get one. The Jays wanna bring up Vlad Jr. and they worry that Donaldson might take the QO since it would basically be a one-year prove-it contract and he'd know the QO would suppress his value on the market and keep him from getting that long-term deal. I'd be surprised if the Jays were willing to risk that for a draft pick, no matter how nice that extra pick is. I also wonder what the market will be like. So many teams will talk themselves into Harper and Machado and be in on that - how many of them will restrain themselves when those two go to the Yankees? (kidding. Kind of.) Someone's going to go after the next tier and you can definitely talk yourself into Donaldson for 3-4 years. It'll be interesting.

Points 1 and 2 matter. I don't see the Twins starting Buxton in the minors next year. His defense makes you give him a shot. At worst, he's an excellent 4th OF. That's a huge blow after the star hopes but that's his floor. And he is still just 24. I'd buy on giving him September off and getting that 28 year. I remember Carlos Gomez. Baseball is funny and sometimes things just click.

Of course not. Because that would be like saying we should bring in King Felix. Some guys are tied to an organization and aren't on other fans radar. I'll say this. If Joe Mauer wanted to play next year and was willing to play anywhere, he would get signed. He has value. Not star value and not big money value but he has value. The naysayers forget that in their desire to see an upgrade at 1B. I get the desire for that upgrade and if it exists, I get doing it though I would miss Joe and would want the upgrade to be substantial and real (Cruz) and not potential (another Morrison). But let's not pretend that Joe Mauer is only in the majors at the Twins largesse.

Explained elsewhere but here again: I want the Twins to sign a longer term deal for a 2B. Like many at TD, I like Escobar because he can play all over the place and he loves Fogo and he's Escobar. The debate has been whether the Twins should find another 2B/3B while moving Sano to 1B/DH permanently. If you do that, you need to decide if you want someone on a longer deal (better player) or shorter deal (not as good of a player). I'm against the longer deal because of Lewis, Arraez, and Gordon coming up in the next few years. I want them to have room to grow and not get squeezed at the MLB level. I know you can trade guys but that always means that the minor league guy has to force the decision and thus spends more time in the minors. So at that point, if the Twins are going to move Sano (again, this is an if, I think it's dumb to move Sano until you have to) then I'd like a shorter term guy. But when I look at that list of short-term guys, I go back to keeping Sano at 3B and keeping Mauer (or the Smoak/Adams/Cruz alternative), Make sense?

Yeah, that wasn't really the point. We were putting together internal options because nick was saying that Mauer was not the best option for the Twins as is and I was arguing he was. This was an exercise in that debate. If you look elsewhere, you'll see that the debate is pretty free ranging because a lot of factors influence Mauer staying at 1B. Biggest one is Sano - does the organization see him as the third baseman next year? If they do, then he's not a regular DH/1B, just a backup. If not and he moves to 1B, that makes Joe harder to keep with Austin needing ABs as well. The other consideration is the free agent market. There are some okay options but outside of Nelson Cruz, nothing amazing. It'll likely come down to whether the Twins find a guy they really like (Smoak, Adams) and contract desires. Brent Rooker also plays a role and either makes a case for Mauer (Mauer can cede some at bats when Rooker is ready) or makes a case against Mauer (you can trade Smoak/Adams more easily than Mauer if Rooker needs PT). Free agency is the only way (besides trade) to improve 1B/DH this year. I'm just not convinced that there's anything out there better than one more year of Joseph.

​Surprised you think Donaldson isn't going to do well in free agency. I know he's had an injury plagued down year but he's likely to be traded to a contender in the next 36 hours so he'll get a chance to make that back. ​Even if he doesn't, he's only 32 and had a 151 OPS+ from 2015 to 2017. That's elite production. Someone is going to offer him a longer 3-4 year contract after the Machado/Harper dust settles. They'll give him an opt out after the second year is my guess? The only thing I could see is him not taking it and doing the 1 year redemption tour but that's a tough call for him. He'd be hitting free agency at 34 and even with a monster year, likely isn't going more than 4 years in the current risk-adverse climate. It'll be interesting to see who's right here. I certainly see your caution but he's relatively young and seems worth a 4 year deal to the right team.

You realize that under your plan, the Twins would be playing either Adrianza or Cave every day. That's before injuries. They can go target FA but I'm not sure where that money should be spent. You could potentially go after a corner OF and move Kepler to 1B but that's a pretty light market - Gardner, Marwin Gonazalez, Harper and a lot of guys I'm not interested in. I'd love Harper too but that seems unlikely. You can get either a 2B or a 3B but getting both seems a bit irresponsible given the glut of exciting middle infield prospects coming up. I'd like to see them pursue top end starting and relief pitching and an Escobar/Machado level infielder. After that, the Twins need to let their youngsters develop so I'd want to tinker around the edges a bit.

I think Donaldson will get 2-3 years if he wants it. He may decide on the one-year bigger salary type deal though. That could be a fit for the Twins since he could play 3B, 1B and DH regularly. Just doesn't feel like a Twins move but that may be TR hangover? Really not interested in Kinsler. Feels like getting him is playing hot potato and hoping you have one more second to throw it to someone else before it blows up. He's been below-average for two years now and will be a 37 year old 2B next year. No one is surprised if his OPS+ is 80 next year. Kinsler seems like vintage TR.* * I appreciated TR for what he was good for, those small trades and building a pen etc. But his free agency was painful. Say what you will and Flavine, their free agency isn't painful. There's real excitement and visible upside.

Its not like he's a full-time pinch hitter. But when he sits, part of the value is having a really nice pinch hitter to put in a late inning situation. He's also an interesting pinch-hitter. I see three roles for pinch hitters: 1.) Hit the solo shot when you're down one or tied to win a game late. (Jose Bautista-type) 2.) The guy you want to sub in when you've got runners on and want a good at-bat (Tommy La Stella) 3.) The guy you start an inning off when you're down two and want to get a guy on (Grossman) Joe is not #1 but is a pretty great #2 and #3. There's value in that, much as you'd love to have that #1 type.

I agree, I see nothing defensively that makes me think he can't play 3B. The real issue is that bat. If he can't hit, it's going to be rough for the Twins. It's really hard to find starter quality backups on short deals - Escobar was the exception and not the rule this year. I think best bet is to get a guy like Escobar who can play 2B and 3B and then hope Sano is acceptable. If he's not, you hope that Gordon is ready to come up and play 2B. That's far from foolproof but if the alternative is multiple infielders on long-term deals (and an immediate log jam if Sano revers to near-All-Star form), I think its the best option.

But will you get external options that are quality on short-term contracts? You don't want to spend a bunch of money to build a log jam if you don't have to.

Assuming Molitor will not be excited to regularly use the backup C as DH, your DH options most days is going to be chosen from Cave or Adrianza. That's rough. Internally, Mauer makes sense for person #12 and can play 1B and shift Sano/Austin to DH. Agreed that if the Twins go out and sign a 3B or 1B type, Mauer may be the one to go. But not sure who that would be. Point being, Mauer's spot is only taken if the Twins look externally at corner IF or DH. Will they? Time will tell.

That's only 11 players I think. Who is your #12? Teams don't go with two man benches for long. You'd be one nagging injury from a one man bench.

Fine I'll go first. For those not following the chain, we're doing a 12 (and 13) man position player list using only internal + Escobar (because we love Escobar and the Twins will get a FA 2B). The point is to see if Mauer would be one of the Twins best internal options in 2019. ​C 1. Castro 2. Garver OF ​3. Buxton 4. Kepler 5. Rosario 6. ​Cave (4th OF) 7. Austin (regular DH, platoon 1B) ​IF 8. Escobar (2B, occasional 3B) 9. Polanco (SS) 10. Sano (occasional DH) 11, Adrianza (fill-in 2B, SS, 3B) 12. Mauer (1B/DH) I don't even know who I'd use for spot #13. Seems like OF is super covered since Adrianza and Garver could also fill in in a pinch so I guess I'd go with Astudillo since he's an emergency IF and you have a third catcher and can use Garver more aggressively at DH if his hitting gets better in his sophomore campaign. Overall I'd say that I don't see a reasonable alternative to Mauer internally. I guess you could go for Wade and make Austin/Kepler your 1B but I'm not sure that Wade is best served being the 5th OF with the emergence of Cave. Granite also seems superfluous. I'd much rather have them in AAA working every day and serving as Buxton insurance. Externally is a different matter. If the Twins go after a 1B/DH, I could see Mauer being the odd man out. But again, not sure who that massive upgrade is barring a pretty significant trade or the Twins making a serious run at Nelson Cruz.

Yeah, but then you still need a second baseman. Gordon doesn't seem ready and Adrianza is a nice utility guy but not a starter at 2B. In order to get someone quality, you'd need to likely go at least two years, maybe three. I don't like signing two 2B/SS/3B to multi-year deals because of the talent coming up. Yeah you can trade people but that's always a messy situation. I don't think its as simple as Escobar/Sano vs. Mauer/Sano. It's about 2019 and 2020 and it's about 2B.

And it's not like Joe Mauer is Matt Harvey or Barry Bonds. He's the nicest guy in the world. If you can't find a way to tell a struggling Joe Mauer that he's going to play a bit less, you shouldn't be a babysitter, let alone a manager/general manager.

I can't believe you won't take a shot. C'mon. What's your internal + Escobar 12 man position player roster? Who do you add if you get 13? You show me yours I'll show you mine! :-)

I think you're undervaluing the benefit of having a good pinch hitter but that's likely something we just disagree on. If he's injured, it's not a wasted roster spot, they can bring someone else up. And I don't see it as a wasted spot either. It's an opportunity for guys like Garver to get in the lineup more. Or a way to get a young guy coming up (Gordon, Rooker) into 2 of the 4-5 times a week you want them to play. A chance to get a backup on a hot streak (Cave) an extra game. It's not a wasted roster spot. You can't have everyone play 160 games. Mauer playing 110 just means 50 extra games to spread around to other guys.

Okay Nick. Set your dream Twins position players using only internal options (and Escobar at 2B because that's fun and we all know the Twins are going to need to fill that hole in FA). How are you doing it? Assume 13 pitchers?

There are trades, though trades cost prospects and have their own cost. Certainly should explore every avenue and I'm sure the Twins have and will. I'm hesitant to sign two middle infielders that will require longer deals. Escobar will get three to four years and Lowrie likely gets at least two and maybe three depending on the market. With Araez, Lewis, and Gordon all relatively near the majors, you're setting up a backlog in the middle infield that I don't relish. I get you can always trade guys but that's never a given if the MLB guy is producing. I'd much prefer the Twins kick the can down the road a year with Mauer (or Adams or Smoak) at 1B, preserve Sano's value at 3B, and fill 2B with Escobar or someone like him. I think getting the extra year to see guys develop is worth it.

How do you want to fix it? Sano is a third baseman. What good does it do to "fix" 1B and then need to fill 3B? Especially when you make Sano significantly less valuable in the process. Rooker has an .812 OPS in AA. He'll be fine but he is going to need at least a half season in AAA. This isn't Kent Hrbek or Joe Mauer blasting out of AA. If you make Austin your 1B everyday, then you need a DH and have to go outside to get it. That means getting a 1B/DH type. That market is limited and Mauer is one of those guys you're looking at anyway. Matt Adams is a reasonable option. So are Cruz and Smoak IMO. But you need to weigh the cost of those guys (no guarantee they want to sign in Minnesota or aren't more likely to stay where they've been) against the benefit of Joe. It comes down to the contract they all want to sign and the intangibles of keeping one of the best players in franchise history. I'd need to see a big upside to moving from Joe to Matt Adams and that would depend on the varying contract demands. It's not a cut and dried thing, there are lots of variables.