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Everything posted by ThejacKmp
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The intentional walks thing is interesting. I would imagine (no source, just musing) that teams with high intentional walks either have a big ginormous star who warrants great care (ala Barry Bonds or Miguel Cabrera) or some glaring weaknesses in their lineup (four of the five teams ahead of the Twins are NL teams which have pitchers bat). When you look at the Twins individual leaders, it seems we're a bit of a mix. Mauer has been walked three times and Dozier once in the "guy-you-don't-want-to-face-right-now" category while Arcia has been walked 4 times (he often is the last true power hitter in the Twins lineup) and Suzuki 2 times (he often hits 8). Another explanation could be that the Twins have a top-ten team batting average offense but a bottom-ten home runs offense. Lots of guys on base tends to lead to situations where putting someone on sets up a double play or gets a better pitching matchup.
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"Tyler Duffey took a no-decision despite having, arguably, the best game of any Twins pitcher - majors or minors - this season." But he's not pitcher of the day?
- 27 replies
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- kohl stewart
- eric fryer
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Why did Hicks get hitter of the day over Buxon. The both had a single, double and triple but Buxton had a 4th hit. Does't make much sense.
- 26 replies
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- aaron hicks
- byron buxton
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Article: Healthy Glen Perkins Is Ready To Roll
ThejacKmp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Trade Perk at the deadline! Hard to say but this team needs to find the closer of the future and Perk could get some awesome prosects at the deadline with his relatively team-friendly deal, name cachet and past performance. Alas, we will not do this. Frustrating that the Twins refuse to ever sell high. -
Depends how the boys in AAA are pitching. If they can get something for a now-effective Nolasco or Pelfrey and open up a spot for Meyers/May/Berrios I think you have to be proactive and deal from a position of strength, no matter your record. It's like how Warren Buffet still makes investments rather than sitting on his laurels and wealth - you've got to make a trade because it makes sense, not because you're in a given position. A lot of bad trades happen because a team feels they HAVE to make a deal and a lot of opportunities are lost because a team is afraid to sell high (see Willinghammer, Josh). I'm hoping that Pelfrey beats out Milone for the 5th starter spot and its not because I love me some Mike Pelfrey, it's because if Pelfrey can string it together for a few months we can get something back for him. If Milone pitches well, the Twins likely keep him. One of my biggest concerns (and I understand its not a bad concern to have) is that the Twins free agent starting pitching signings, while welcome, have really blocked off development for the top-end pitching prospects. I'm hoping they're going to have to figure out a way around that. Trade Nolasco for pennies on the dollar? Trade Santana? Sell high on Gibson? Sell super high on Hughes? Lots of ways to do it, none of them easy decisions.
- 38 replies
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- ervin santana
- brian dozier
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Also, it's not like we gave up anything to get him. Sam Fuld is the definition of a replacement player. Milone as starting pitching depth in AAA or a sweetener in a trade sounds fine to me. He has value, just not tons of value. The real key to me is, assuming relative health and effectiveness for the Twins starters, whether TR will be willing to deal starting pitching (Nolasco, Santana even Gibson) at the deadline if Mays, Meyer and Berrios are all pitching well and warrant calling up.
- 38 replies
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- ervin santana
- brian dozier
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Article: Tyler Grimes Is Happy With His Decision
ThejacKmp replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Not to be pessimistic but he should probably quit. Nothing in his stats indicates he has much of a chance at the big leagues, he doesn't seem to have that burning desire to play no matter what and he has other options that seem to interest him. You got to know when to fold 'em. -
I vote: Mauer Santana Dozier Arcia Vargas Plouffe Hunter Suzuki Hicks
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- danny santana
- joe mauer
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Article: One Man's Opinion: Tovar Snubbed Again
ThejacKmp replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Dan Gladden does not belong in the Twins HOF. You know which regular player had the lowest OPS on the 1991 Twins? Its not Gagne, it's Gladden. Gladden's HIGHEST OPS+ during his time with the Twins was 103, meaning he was an average MLB left fielder in his best year. In our glorious 1987 World Series year it was 76 - meaning he was 25% worse than an average left fielder. For comparison, last year Aaron Hicks had an OPS+ of 76. Jason Kubel's was 73 and he got cut the first week of June. Three of his five seasons with the Twins, Gladden couldn't break .700 in OPS. You know how many of the Twins regular players can say the same from 2014? Zero. That's right. Every regular on the Twins fairly dismal last place team had a better season than Gladden mustered in those three seasons. And even Gladden at his finest (.741 OPS) is worse than 7 of the 9 Twins regulars. If Gladden gets in it will because he was "hardworking" and because he is an announcer. We need to stop. Retiring Bert's number was foolish enough (and cheapens what great players Killebrew, Oliva and Puckett accomplished) but putting Danny Gladden in the Twins HOF because he managed to catch on as the announcer is absolutely ridiculous. We might as well place Marney Gellner in the Twins HOF while we're at it. She deserves it more. -
"I would never judge a player, GM, manager, Quarterback, basketball player by the number of titles his teams have won." ----------------- Its interesting how that is different for different sports. Football and baseball have so many players that it is hard to blame people for not winning championships. Ernie Banks is no less amazing for having loyally served a cursed team. Golf and tennis are clearly sports where championships are a legit way to determine if a player is successful. I'd argue that basketball is a hybrid - because there are fewer guys on the team and a player can exert more of an infuence on the game, it is much more fair to say "Karl Malone never won a championship, which hurts his legacy." Its not perfect (Malone ran into Jordan e.g.) but it's much more palatable than baseball and football where guys have less ability to influence the outcome.
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- general managers
- in pursuit of pennants
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Article: What to do: Eduardo Escobar
ThejacKmp replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
On a similar vein (and maybe this isn't the article for this discussion), can we solve the logjam at 1B/DH by the radical move of putting Joey out in left? He's reasonably athletic with an arm that can make up for any lack of range, his bat profiles better out in left than at first and while there is an increased risk of injury, at some point you need to take that risk and this seems reasonable. I don't think he'd be out there in five years but it would buy you some time and solve several acute weaknesses. In addition to filling the Twins greatest positional hole with a unique talent, this would allow you to make Vargas your DH and Pinto your primary first baseman (though he's never played in the majors and only 14 games in the minors, I'm confident he'd be better than Vargas after spring training) and backup/third string catcher. We'd get to see what Pinto and Vargas can do it defined roles with everyday playing time. Thoughts? -
Article: What to do: Eduardo Escobar
ThejacKmp replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Outside the box solution: Trevor Plouffe will likely be pushed from third base by Sano. Why not be proactive and spend spring training getting him acclimated to left field (he's played 30 major league games and 7 minor league games in the outfield so its not totally new but he can't be just thrown into the fire). This gives you time to evaluate the following: 1) Is Trevor Plouffe a solution (short term or longer) to LF? (If not is Rosario the answer? Does Hicks move over?) 2) Is Santana going to continue to hit and handle SS? (If not, Escobar can move back from 3B and Sano or Plouffe can take back 3B) 3) Is Escobar more of a utility guy or an every day guy? 4) Is Hicks able to hit enough to be a replacement level CF until Buxton gets up? Does he figure some things out and profile as a corner outfielder? I know it seems like the Twins need to go get a stud LF but with Sano and Buxton coming up midseason, it seems like the Twins would be better to get all of these guys some playing time and see whose year last year was a fluke and who profiles long term. Its not crazy to think of a Twins future where Plouffe is holding down an outfield position - seems more likely than him being the 3Bman (knock on wood for Sano_. -
I know ESPN is moronic sometimes but I couldn't believe that I was reading an article where they judged a pitcher based on wins. I thought we were four to five years past that. I'm not asking for advanced stats either, just maybe ERA and strikeouts? Its especially frustrating because Johan was robbed in 2005 for the Cy Young by this very wins mentality. He had an ERA a full .6 lower than Colon (2.87 vs. 3.48), pitched 9 more innings and struck out over 80 more batters but finished third because he only won 16 games while Colon won 21. If baseball writers hadn't been so obsessed with wins and voted for the clearly inferior Colon, he would've leapfrogged Mariano Rivera and won it - giving him three in a row from 2004 to 2006. Especially tough because it would've helped his Hall of Fame case to win three in a row. Right now he's borderline and almost certainly out. He was one of the two best pitchers in baseball (alongside Roy Halladay) for five years in the mid 2000s but the issues with longevity will hurt him as will the fact that his best years came in small market MN while his hurt (though still very productive) years came with big market NY. It'll be interesting to see if he attempts to come back. He's only 35 and it seems his arm was still live but achilles tears at age 35 are brutal and he certainly doesn't need the money. He's 2 good years away from being a much more likely Hall of Famer and I'd love to see him find a way to do that. IMO he's much more deserving of the hall than a guy like Bert Blyleven who pitched for 20 plus years but was never anywhere near the pitcher Johan was. When Johan pitched during those Cy Young years, there was nowhere more exciting to be.
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Starting Pitching and the Folly of the Pohlad Fortune
ThejacKmp commented on ThejacKmp's blog entry in Blog ThejacKmp
As to #1, Terry Ryan did give Willingham a large multi-year contract. He hasn't done it for a pitcher yet but Willingham actually fits the mold I can see the Twins pursuing. Not the Grienkes or Prices or King Felixi but a veteran guy who is looking for a good contract and fills a specific need (Willingham isn't an all-star but an above average pitcher). That sounds a lot like a #2/#3 starter to me! -
Starting Pitching and the Folly of the Pohlad Fortune
ThejacKmp commented on ThejacKmp's blog entry in Blog ThejacKmp
1.) I'll agree that no one wants to become Steinbrenner Midwest. But it's frustrating to see the team run as a profit making enterprise when it really is just a luxury toy. Try to break even, trust Terry Ryan to be able to make the occasional splurge for a piece the Twins need. That time isn't now but if hitting prospects develop and one or more of the pitchers don't, it'll be frustrating if the Twins are a perennial .500 record third place team because the Pohald's insist on making $25 million every year. I guess my point is that you can have spending limits (which force team executives to do things smarter) but maybe they're not at the right level. It sure would be nice to see what Terry Ryan could do with $25 million more. 2.) The charity thing is hyperbole, clearly there are better ways to spend money. :-P That said, the stadium got sold to the legislature as a public good so we already treat it as such in some arenas, why not when it comes to profits? 3.) And finally, I also don't like telling someone how to spend their own money. That is, until they get the citizens to build them a ballpark without any sort of referendum (which clearly would not have passed). Then I think it becomes more of a public debate about whether or not they should be profitting from the club and how they should spend money. It would be interesting to explore some of the ways in which organizations can be held accountable after stadiums are built (I'm sure the 7 remaining Marlins fans would agree). -
Starting Pitching and the Folly of the Pohlad Fortune
ThejacKmp commented on ThejacKmp's blog entry in Blog ThejacKmp
1.) I'll agree that no one wants to become Steinbrenner Midwest. But it's frustrating to see the team run as a profit making enterprise when it really is just a luxury toy. Try to break even, trust Terry Ryan to be able to make the occasional splurge for a piece the Twins need. That time isn't now but if hitting prospects develop and one or more of the pitchers don't, it'll be frustrating if the Twins are a perennial .500 record third place team because the Pohald's insist on making $25 million every year. I guess my point is that you can have spending limits (which force team executives to do things smarter) but maybe they're not at the right level. It sure would be nice to see what Terry Ryan could do with $25 million more. 2.) The charity thing is hyperbole, clearly there are better ways to spend money. :-P That said, the stadium got sold to the legislature as a public good so we already treat it as such in some arenas, why not when it comes to profits? 3.) And finally, I also don't like telling someone how to spend their own money. That is, until they get the citizens to build them a ballpark without any sort of referendum (which clearly would not have passed). Then I think it becomes more of a public debate about whether or not they should be profitting from the club and how they should spend money. It would be interesting to explore some of the ways in which organizations can be held accountable after stadiums are built (I'm sure the 7 remaining Marlins fans would agree). -
Starting Pitching and the Folly of the Pohlad Fortune
ThejacKmp posted a blog entry in Blog ThejacKmp
I was reading this article and in the comments section came across this blurb in the comments section concerning the Twins not being able to get FA starting pitching: I don't understand where this assumption comes from. I know that the Twins haven't gone out and gotten this free agent pitcher in the last twenty years but that was also during the Metrodome-era when we realistically couldn't afford it.* I'm not saying the Twins will be signing David Price anytime soon but if the young field players improve and the Twins have 3-4 starters in place (May, Gibson, Diamond, Meyer?) I can see them finding a starting pitcher in that second rung of free agent pitchers for $10 million/yr - $15 million/yr for 3-4 years and rolling with it. It depends how much they're spending filling other holes (particularly the middle infield and first base) but it remains a distinct possibility. This is especially true since one of the benefits of trading Span/Revere is that the Twins don't have a lot of their core (and potential core) coming up for big $$$ for a solid 4-5 years. They've paid Mauer, the outfield will be all young guys and outside of maybe Plouffe - and even then he won't be pricey - all they've really got to worry about is perhaps inking Scott Diamond. The team even sheds a ton of salary via Morneau and Willingham this year and next. This is a team that profiles to be incredibly cheap, even with Mauer's well-deserved $23 million, for the next 3-5 years. That means the Twins will have the flexibility to throw out $10 or even $15 million/yr for 3 years and bring in a more elite starter. Or even two. I get not wanting to sign the seven year pitcher deals (and think its smart businses) but there's a value in the layer underneath. The obvious historical precedent would be Jack Morris, an aging elite pitcher who was available on a short-term high-dollar deal. A less apt one is Carl Pavano the second time - more of a stretch since he was coming off of injuries but in that same ballpark money wise. The point is, there are great #2 or #3 starter types out there who I expect the Twins to sign if the mini-rebuild goes as planned. Who knows who those pitchers will be in the future, but to say the Twins won't be able to go after them seems premature. Now I know everyone is going to point at the Twins current roster ($90 million-ish?) and say that they're already cutting spending but at least the front office is talking the talk about using that money for a sunnier day. As long as they do tuck that $20 million into a savings account with a nice interest rate (instead of a Pohlad's suit pants pocket) with the idea to make their dollars count, I have a hard time faulting them. This team wasn't going to take a huge jump by signing one solid pitcher this year (much as we'd like it) but that may not be true next year or (more likely) the year after. Its like a kid knowing that he could buy a crappy Craigslist bike in March and maybe ride when it isn't too cold but instead hoping for some snow so he can shovel some walks and sve the cash get a sweet brand-new bike in June, when having a bike really matters. ----- *A note on this which is a huge aside and a whole different post: when we say the Twins can't afford it, it's because we ignore the fact that the Pohlads are freaking billionaires. Owning a sports team should be the uber-rich guy equivalent of buying a Maserati - you don't buy it cuz it makes fiscal sense, you buy it because its fun to drive really, really fast and meet some babes. You know, like Mark Cuban. We forget that behind our mumblings about Bill Smith's trade abilities or Gardy's love of light-hitting middle infielders lurks the beast in the corner - the Pohlads run the Twins like an actual business and as cheapskates at that. The fact that they make significant money off of the Twins is an insult. Especially since the family fortune (that's right, not actually earned by the current trust fund bunch) was founded on Smilin' Carl foreclosing on families during the Great Depression. No really. Wikipedia him. No idea why we celebrated this man when he died. We didn't need to boo but I for one turned the channel. Foreclosing homes, trying to contract the Twins, squeezing every penny of profit out - this guy was Scrooge but without the redeeming flash of insight. It's almost enough to make a guy like the publicly owned Packers. Almost. When I think about what the Twins could do if the Pohlads (A) decided to just try to break even each year rather than make a profit ( decided to accept a $20 million loss each year as a public gift or © even accepated a $50 million loss each year (doable since they sold a side beverage business in 2010 for $2.12 billion and also totally tax deductible) it makes me want to cry. And hit someone. Stupid rich people. I get not wanting to pay taxes, that must suck to have your (hard earned?) money taken away. But let's do some real charity work, let's improve some lives. Life is better when the Twins win. Make it happen Pennypincher Pohlad Jr. -
Starting Pitching and the Folly of the Pohlad Fortune
ThejacKmp commented on ThejacKmp's blog entry in Blog ThejacKmp
I was reading this article and in the comments section came across this blurb in the comments section concerning the Twins not being able to get FA starting pitching: I don't understand where this assumption comes from. I know that the Twins haven't gone out and gotten this free agent pitcher in the last twenty years but that was also during the Metrodome-era when we realistically couldn't afford it.* I'm not saying the Twins will be signing David Price anytime soon but if the young field players improve and the Twins have 3-4 starters in place (May, Gibson, Diamond, Meyer?) I can see them finding a starting pitcher in that second rung of free agent pitchers for $10 million/yr - $15 million/yr for 3-4 years and rolling with it. It depends how much they're spending filling other holes (particularly the middle infield and first base) but it remains a distinct possibility. This is especially true since one of the benefits of trading Span/Revere is that the Twins don't have a lot of their core (and potential core) coming up for big $$$ for a solid 4-5 years. They've paid Mauer, the outfield will be all young guys and outside of maybe Plouffe - and even then he won't be pricey - all they've really got to worry about is perhaps inking Scott Diamond. The team even sheds a ton of salary via Morneau and Willingham this year and next. This is a team that profiles to be incredibly cheap, even with Mauer's well-deserved $23 million, for the next 3-5 years. That means the Twins will have the flexibility to throw out $10 or even $15 million/yr for 3 years and bring in a more elite starter. Or even two. I get not wanting to sign the seven year pitcher deals (and think its smart businses) but there's a value in the layer underneath. The obvious historical precedent would be Jack Morris, an aging elite pitcher who was available on a short-term high-dollar deal. A less apt one is Carl Pavano the second time - more of a stretch since he was coming off of injuries but in that same ballpark money wise. The point is, there are great #2 or #3 starter types out there who I expect the Twins to sign if the mini-rebuild goes as planned. Who knows who those pitchers will be in the future, but to say the Twins won't be able to go after them seems premature. Now I know everyone is going to point at the Twins current roster ($90 million-ish?) and say that they're already cutting spending but at least the front office is talking the talk about using that money for a sunnier day. As long as they do tuck that $20 million into a savings account with a nice interest rate (instead of a Pohlad's suit pants pocket) with the idea to make their dollars count, I have a hard time faulting them. This team wasn't going to take a huge jump by signing one solid pitcher this year (much as we'd like it) but that may not be true next year or (more likely) the year after. Its like a kid knowing that he could buy a crappy Craigslist bike in March and maybe ride when it isn't too cold but instead hoping for some snow so he can shovel some walks and sve the cash get a sweet brand-new bike in June, when having a bike really matters. ----- *A note on this which is a huge aside and a whole different post: when we say the Twins can't afford it, it's because we ignore the fact that the Pohlads are freaking billionaires. Owning a sports team should be the uber-rich guy equivalent of buying a Maserati - you don't buy it cuz it makes fiscal sense, you buy it because its fun to drive really, really fast and meet some babes. You know, like Mark Cuban. We forget that behind our mumblings about Bill Smith's trade abilities or Gardy's love of light-hitting middle infielders lurks the beast in the corner - the Pohlads run the Twins like an actual business and as cheapskates at that. The fact that they make significant money off of the Twins is an insult. Especially since the family fortune (that's right, not actually earned by the current trust fund bunch) was founded on Smilin' Carl foreclosing on families during the Great Depression. No really. Wikipedia him. No idea why we celebrated this man when he died. We didn't need to boo but I for one turned the channel. Foreclosing homes, trying to contract the Twins, squeezing every penny of profit out - this guy was Scrooge but without the redeeming flash of insight. It's almost enough to make a guy like the publicly owned Packers. Almost. When I think about what the Twins could do if the Pohlads (A) decided to just try to break even each year rather than make a profit ( decided to accept a $20 million loss each year as a public gift or © even accepated a $50 million loss each year (doable since they sold a side beverage business in 2010 for $2.12 billion and also totally tax deductible) it makes me want to cry. And hit someone. Stupid rich people. I get not wanting to pay taxes, that must suck to have your (hard earned?) money taken away. But let's do some real charity work, let's improve some lives. Life is better when the Twins win. Make it happen Pennypincher Pohlad Jr.