Greglw3

I’m afraid that for the period from the end of the 2020 season until now, Falvey and Levine get an F and Baldelli gets a D. Baldelli has shown slight improvement in the last 3rd of the season, maybe because getting rid of a lot of the bad relievers and bringing in more effective young ones made it easier to manage the bullpen. I think the Twins can contend next year but Falvey and Levine will have to be much more thorough in their planning and realistic in their talent evaluation. I do not think Max Kepler is a major league starter. He’s way too long in the habit of trying to pull everything usually right into the shift. If he’d use the whole field he could be a good hitter again but he won’t make the adjustment. Justin Morneau has commented on it several times in recent broadcasts, I think one time even using the word stubborn. For all the drafted pitchers, I agree with Tom. WE have exactly one pitcher that has proven he’s ready and that’s Ober. We really don’t know about Ryan because he didn’t get a long enough test but that last start was alarmingly bad. Cave has to go. The big hope would be signing a left fielder and Miranda playing a whole season for the Twins plus Kirilloff staying healthy and putting together a credible season. Lots of work to do.

Oops! My bad. I’ll offer up two alternatives for LF. From baseball reference: or

I think the money needs to go elsewhere if the Twins really want to contend. I’d go with this depth chart: 3B Donaldson/Miranda/Arraez SS Polanco/Gordon/Palacios 2B Gordon/Arraez/Miranda 1B Sano/Kirilloff/Miranda LF Michael Brantley/Larnach CF Buxton/Greg Allen or Billy Hamilton RF Kirilloff/Kepler/Cabbage C Garver/Jeffers/Rortvedt DH Miranda/Donaldson/Sano SP Ray or Syndergaard SP Danny Duffy SP Michael Pineda SP Greinke or Ober SP Joe Ryan If Greinke then Ober 6th in line or he could win a spot in Spring training Depth Cole Sands, Charlie Barnes, maybe at some point Duran RP Rogers RP Thielbar RP Garza RP Alcala RP Juan Minaya Long Relief Gant RP Vincent has to "make good'

I’d like to nominate the drop-off from the nearly 100 game 1970 season to the very disappointing 1971 season, where the Twins were basically a very strong hitting team but a poor team pitching-wise. The high point was Tony Oliva winning his 3rd batting title in 1971. Rod Carew hit .307 before raising his game massively and winning 6 of the next 7 batting titles with a string of staggering batting averages!

Young player with insufficient reps in major leagues to know his true potential. Twins let him go. LaMonte Wade? Brent Rooker? Denard Span? Ben Revere? Akil Badoo? David Ortiz? Luis Gil? Ynoa? I think there’s at least a 50% chance that Rooker hits 30 HR in a major league season. But we have too many outfielders to give LaMonte Wade a chance. He would have been our 1st or 2nd best outfielder for the season.

Fair enough. We’re both just trying to figure out the way the Twins can get better. I did think it was cool last night that Gordon tied for the team lead in stolen bases! Here’s Gordon’s last 15 games (MLB.com) Ya gotta love his defensive versatility and how he’s competent at several position. It strkes me that he’s being groomed as the backup CF if Buxton is hurt next year and backup at 3B, SS, 2B, LF. A better Marwin Gonzalez. For a full season with no improvement he rates as a 30 SB, 15 HR guy,

Gordon has played there lately and he’s shown no matter where you put him, he does a major league worthy job because he’s a very skilled athlete. He’s close to the team lead in SB in very limited time. Palacios is 25 but hit 19 HR at SS and had 18 stolen bases. Polanco won 101 games at SS, 70 at 2B. My point is that Simmons has been awful and should depart. It also was to say that rather than make the same BIG mistake of pouring valuable money into a SS and being cheap in pitching, let’s make the choice to stay put at SS with Internal options and pour the money into 2 of 3 of Syndergaard, Robbie Ray and Danny Duffy. How does Ray, Danny Duffy, Pineda, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober or Cole Sands sound?

If they re-sign Andrelton Simmons, that will be a great start to a 3rd consecutive lousy offseason for the FO. With shifts and some defensive decline and bobbling of balls, his defense is not as advertised. And his low offensive profile is a net negative to the team. I’d sign another FA SS or use Gordon, Polanco, Maggi or Palacios there with an outside chance of Royce Lewis. Cave and Simmons are the two highest priorities for release. Possibly Kepler. Without using Kepler’s name, for 3 or 4 days in a row, Justin Morneau has pointed out the hopeless nature of his approach and the stubbornness that is involved. I’d seriously consider trading or releasing him. My 2022 OF would be Michael Brantley, Buxton and Kirilloff with Contreras Kerrigan as the 4th and/or 5th OF.

I’m very excited to see Woods-Richardson have a dominant outing like that finally. Maybe his season can be like Brant Alyea’s 1970 season, hot at the start and end but icy cld in the middle of the season.

I agree that Polanco, Gordon and Arraez could fill the bill and Drew Maggi has had a fine season. I would be amenable to having Gordon play the majority of games at 2B. Ironically Arraez’s best position is 3B but with Donaldson increasingly brittle, that could work out. I’m probably in the minority but think Polanco could go back to SS. After all Twins won 101 games with him at SS in 2019. Miranda also is pounding on the MLB door!

I agree that they can put together a contending staff and I agree that Pineda should be one. I’m pretty sure he’s said he wants to be with the Twins. I also agree with your evaluation of Ober. He looks to have bright future. What I’d like to see Falvey do is rather than sitting back and waiting for players to drop to them, set high goals and go very aggressively for 2 of these 3. Syndergaard, Robby Ray, Danny Duffy. While not a Dobnak fan, I’m open to him in the 5 spot. It remains to be seen if Ryan is a better choice or needs more seasoning. I wish Balazovic could pull it all together because every time I see him, he has really high upside on his breaking stuff. I also don’t think the offense is good enough. Cave should be released. The Twins should try to sign Michael Brantly who could help form a great 1-2 with Arraez. Buxton in cf. Kirilloff in rf. Kepler to 4th OF or traded. They also need to sign an inexpensive defensive stud like Billy Hamilton or me, Greg Allen to fill in when Buxton is down. In the IF, I envision Miranda at 3rd, a SS depending on how much they spend on other players (maybe Polanco). Arraez or Polanco at 2B but Arraez gets his 450-500 AB.. Sano at 1B. Garver/Jeffers and depending on how fast he comes, Rortvedt. His defense could be very very good and I see him hitting eventually. Then, like you said, Winder, Strotaman, Dobnak or Ryan, Canterino, Balazovic hopefully produces a real deal pitcher. Dursn coming back would be a big bonus. I think Contreras and Larnach could help in some role. Possibly even Jimmy Kerrigan. Good analysis. I’m in basic agreement with you that the Twins can contend with the right moves.

All I can say about that rotation is Yuk. They should make an all out play for Robby Ray and as a #2, Danny Duffy. That shouldn’t break the bank but would bring two of the best ERA pitchers to the Twins. Then re-sign Pineda for stability. Final two Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober. Also sign Brantley for LF so the OF is Brantley, Buxton, Kirilloff. Miranda, SS, Arraez, Sano with Donaldson moving further toward the DH told. Jeffers/Garver and Nick Gordon (U). This would all be affordable and show that Twins really want to win. Syndergaard could be a backup for Ray.

I agree, that’s exactly what they have to have, a 1 a 2 and a 3 or 4. My suggestion was Robbie Ray, Danny Duffy and Michael Pineda. Then Ober and Ryan plus improve the offense by signing a LF like Brantley. Kepler is iffy, I think Kirilloff could do a better job. Brantley, Buxton, Kirilloff in the OF and sign Billy Hamilton or Greg Allen to fill in as a defensive stud when and if Buxton is injured, Kepler 4th OF. Cave gone. Miranda, ? (feel like spending? Carlos Correa). Arraez, Sano in the IF with Donaldson at DH. Garver/ Jeffers and please keep Nick Gordon, he has a lot of tools and just needs experience.

Best I can determine the recent White Sox FA signings or extensions to ward off FA are: Adam Eaton Jose Abreau Liam Hendricks Dallas Keuchel Lance Lynn Yasmani Grandal Gio Gonzalez

Yep, time for a change a/la the White Sox of the last 3 years. They have to pay up if they want to win.

I’ll take an optimistic approach. If they can sign two free agent pitchers that both finish with a record 10 games above .500, then Ryan, Ober and maybe Pineda could be .500 as a group. That’s a rotation that’s 20 games above .500. The offense will need new faces ( Michael Brantley, Carlos Correa, Miranda, Kirilloff RF, Buxton) to get those two FA acquisitions to 20 games over .500. I would suggest Robby Ray and Danny Duffy, both with very good ERAs this season. Then if they can significantly improve the bullpen with aggressive FA and trade efforts, they could increase to 25 above .500

I think Viola is a Twin in good standing. He’s been in the booth in a very affable manner with Dick and xxx and been very personable, showing no sign of any bitterness. I read his tweet as a criticism of management and manager, frankly deserved. How do you manage to pull off taking a 101 win team where Schoop and Cron contributed greatly to the Hr record to a 90 or so loss team. How do you take a pitching staff good enough to win 101 games and totally decimate it in two years. How do you make signings as bad as Happ, Shoemaker, trade away Pressley for insufficient return, cast aside 30 HR hitting Eduardo Escobar, just let Trevor May go for nothing, Wisler for nothing, Clippard for nothing, shed Rich Hill, sign Hansel Robles and Colome to replace the relievers they kicked away. They blew it by not signing a legit cf backup for Buxton. And not signing a LF to replace Rosario. The only way I see to fix the mess with Falvine still in place is to sign Robby Ray and Danny Duffy and re-sign Pineda, hope Ryan is the real deal and use Ober. They still have 5 poisitions that are shaky or subpar, LF where Kirilloff may need to play, RF with Kepler with a .211 average. I admit he’s been better lately but he’s had low averages most of his career. Sano has rebounded nicely but will he slump mightily next year before recovering. I hope he’s turned the corner. Buxton’s a question mark only because he rarely plays a half a season. I’m hoping he plays the rest of this season well and stays healthy and they can come together on an extension. Larnach needs to figure out how to handle breaking balls. I think Frank Viola cares about the Twins and is dismayed. I love the Twins. They’ve been the love of my life since I was 8 yrs old in 1964. That didn’t stop me from being at my wits end when Calvin Griffith let Bill Campbell, Tom Burgmeir, Lyman Bostock, Larry Hisle, Dan Ford, Rod Carew, Gary Ward, Dave Goltz all leave in about a four year period. Admittedly that was worse than this.

I know you’re saying this tongue in cheek but yes, I think analytics can help but they are overused to the detriment of quality baseball oftentimes, especially by the Twins. This includes using the shift too much leaving 2b wide open. Other teams are better able to capitalize on that than the Twins.

Frank Viola had a very interesting tweet this morning. In a recent thread, I intimated that I felt the manager and Falvey and Levine should be dismissed. I’ve vacillated on it but since then, the team and outlook seems even worse. I just found this tweet by Frank Viola, one of the Twins greatest pitchers ever to be a confirmation of what I’ve felt this year. Does what Viola says surprise you? Does it carry weight with you? Do you agree? It rings far too true to me. The last sentence of his Tweet is the most significant one "Wrong leadership equals no chance to succeed." That sounds like a call for change to me. I would argue that the failure of Falvey, Levine and Baldelli has been so spectacular that the Twins would be better off replacing Falvey, Levine and Baldelli with the best GM, Manager and and President of baseball operations that they can find. This is a judgement that is probably analogous to the Twins releasing a player that they really like as a person and had high hopes for. It’s a business and winning is the paramount goal. There are way too many baseball moves that they’ve butchered to mention but the sequence that lead to Cave playing a significant role and still starting as we approach September is perhaps the most egregious of all. Not acquiring a better option for Buxton’s backup and a better replacement for Rosario cost the Twins wins. Happ and Shoemaker didn’t help.

I agree wholly with DFAing Simmons and Cave. They are both below average MLB players and should not play for the Twins in 2022 or thereafter. DFA the sooner the better.

I like quite a few of our minor leaguers even guys like Mark Contreras and Jimmy Kerrigan, Jermaine Palacios, Trey Cabbage, Moran, of course Miranda, Joe Ryan and more. Honestly, as far as people I’m sure can help the Twins in the future, only Alex Kirilloff is definitely worth keeping.

miracles: It's definitely an arguable point but I don’t see Nick Gordon as light hitting with these stats for 2021 as a rookie with less than a full MLB chance. The .802 OPS at St. Paul and the .455 slugging percentage there may indicate that with a longer chance in MLB and regular playing time, he would be OK. I’d rather see him play SS every day for the rest of the year and release Simmons. And 12/15 in SB which could help establish a bit more balance to the Twins offense. ar Age Tm Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS 2021 25 MIN-min AAA 17 72 66 11 19 0 1 3 9 7 2 6 11 .288 .347 .455 .802 2021 25 MIN AL 37 103 96 9 24 3 1 1 5 5 1 6 26 .250 .301 .333 .634

Hey Brock, Thanks for the Bob Allison all rookie team card!!! I had done a study of RBIs per 162 games for the full careers of Rosario and Cave since Cave started the season as his replacement. Eddie has averaged 92 RBI per 162 games for his entire career, rookie season until now. This would seem high for a player with a slash line of .275/.308/.470. Even this season with Cleveland, he has a projected RBI total of 88 (arbitrary 550 AB) with a .254/.296/.389 slash line. I take that to mean that he is driving in runs this year well above expectation if not factoring in some clutch hitting ability. The same would apply for the 92 RBI avg per 162 vs his career slash line. As a point of reference, Jake Cave for his career per 162 has averaged 56 RBIs. Another point is why did the Atlanta Braves want to ride for him as a contending team for the playoffs. I know I will never convince anyone who thinks Eddie wasn’t a good to very good player but we have to agree to disagree. I just think he is and has been over his career such a vastly superior to Jake Cave that when they released Rosario and started the season with Cave as the everyday LF, I felt very disillusioned. In fact Eddie just blew Cave off the map on virtually all of the per 162 game stats with the possible exception of OPS, where Eddie was ahead. I think part of the problem is that I draw a lot of my conclusions using the eye test and traditional statistics. Something magical happens when you watch a player virtually every day for a 162 game season. I think you get a pretty complete picture. Another part of the problem is that I look at the stats that myself and all the other Twins fans since the 60s looked at for close to 6 decades and baseball fans in general had looked at for probably over 100 years until Bill James started doing his work. It seems the Rosario detractors tend to not regard RBIs highly, some are a no, even on batting average (Luis Arraez, Rod Carew .388). I looked at a 2019 WAR calc for Eddie Rosario and he was worth 3.2 WAR except it was changed to 0.9 due to defense. That seems ridiculous to me especially since he demonstrably won x games with his throwing arm. If Delmon Young had been changed from 3.2 to 0.9 solely due to defense, I might believe it.

I agree 1000%. Molitor was a very good manager. Much better than Baldelli. He was aggressive with the bullpen and showed a burning passion to win. Molitir is an all time baseball treasure with tremendous knowledge of how to win baseball games and how to succeed. While he’s in the Hall of Fame, he’s not just a Hall of Famers but he’s an ELITE Hall of Famers. I thought firing him was a huge mistake and still do.

We have to agree to disagree on Rosario. The FO then dismantled that 100 win team to what we have now. All I want is for the Twins to get back to that open window whether it’s Falvine and Rocco or someone else. I think Jim Pohlad will give them a pass for this year so I look to this intriguing batch of prospects and hopefully a really solid pitching acquisition through FA. I’ve always stuck with the Twins through every up and down for decades now. They’ve been the joy of my life even if a lot of hard times! The two WS teams were fun. There’s been enough success along the way to balance out the heartbreaks.