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drivlikejehu

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Everything posted by drivlikejehu

  1. drivlikejehu
    Minor league relievers have an atrocious MLB track record, across the league. In general fans overrate those guys. Wade is the biggest jump for me, I think . . . as a college guy, playing well at Elizabethton didn't mean very much, and his college stats weren't very good. So his performance this year has made it clear that he's a solid prospect, albeit without huge apparent upside.
  2. drivlikejehu
    It's pretty simple. I think he's basically a 1.5 WAR player, which is the pace he's on this year, and I don't think that's good enough to be an everyday player on a team planning to win. Maybe it's more accurate to say he's a platoon player, though to date he hasn't actually shown a platoon split (a permanent lack of split is extremely rare so I assume SSS). Maybe you don't agree, but mine seems like a very 'understandable' viewpoint, especially considering Rosario's career MLB OBP is well under .300.
  3. drivlikejehu
    I don't buy this premise. An important point about Rosario is that, even though his strikeout rate is OK, he swings and misses a lot - more than Sano, in fact. But Rosario's aggression early in the count keeps his overall K rate in check. As a result, I see almost no upside with Rosario. If he gets more patient, his K rate will spike and undo most or all of the OBP gains he gets from a moderate increase in walks. I just think he's a 4th outfielder, which is nothing to be ashamed of. It still makes him among the most talented players in the world.
  4. drivlikejehu
    Not exactly a baseball research site of any kind. The only thing it shows is that GMs do not fully trust defensive WAR numbers. However, it is universally agreed that defensive WAR is approximate and subject to significant variations, whereas offensive WAR is pretty straightforward (and the associated fluctuations are easier to account for as well). Would you pay more for (1) a player that is maybe good on defense and definitely average on offense? Or (2) a player that was maybe average on defense but definitely good on offense? Some simplistic WAR charts don't capture much of the issue.
  5. drivlikejehu
    Any data to support this contention?
  6. drivlikejehu
    A .732 OPS in AA really isn't very good. Granite needs to make a higher quality of contact, rather than just putting the ball in play, to be effective in the Majors. I do think he has a good chance of developing into a bench guy.
  7. drivlikejehu
    He's consistent in more than just that. wRC+ by year: 2012 [R] - 118 2013 [A] - 130 2014 [A+] - 111 2015 [AA] - 125 2016 [AAA] - 124 Nothing special for his age. He's never been one of the best hitters in a league or even on his own team. People like home runs, understandably, and get excited, but even if you ignore the fact MLB pitchers will dominate Walker, his actual minor league numbers aren't particularly great. He's just stayed healthy and at one level per year, so he's accumulated a lot of counting stats.
  8. drivlikejehu
    He's average at allowing HR. His delta is almost entirely due to extremely low BABIP. My hypothesis is that it's a mix of defense, luck, and skill, and that in front of a subpar defense he's a decent #4 starter at best, probably more of a #5.
  9. drivlikejehu
    Vielma is a pure slap hitter - right now he projects to something like a .575 OPS in the Majors. He needs to hit the ball harder to even be a good utility option in the era of 12-man pitching staffs. He's only 22, so he should hang around in the high minors and hopefully at least offer some depth.
  10. drivlikejehu
  11. drivlikejehu
    No, I mean "except." Over very large sample sizes ERA is a better predictor than FIP and xFIP because pitchers do vary in their "true" BABIP and HR/FB ability. The sample size progression goes: xFIP - FIP - ERA For a tiny number of innings, xFIP is better because HRs can distort FIP. Over larger samples FIP is better because it captures the pitcher's "true" HR/FB ability. Over really large samples ERA is best because it accounts for that plus BABIP.
  12. drivlikejehu
    Meyer's ability is pretty much beside the point. He is not physically capable of pitching for any length of time, which also has had the effect of disrupting/delaying his development. Unless you're a James Andrews pupil that has reviewed Meyer's most up-to-date medical records, your observations have very little to do with Meyer's value.
  13. drivlikejehu
    Read the Fangraphs primer on it. It makes sense.
  14. drivlikejehu
    FIP and xFIP are much better as predictive stats, except over very large sample sizes. The entire point of them is to remove noise. In exchange they lose the ability to distinguish certain factors that ordinarily are close to the league mean.
  15. drivlikejehu
    Well, every start gives you more information. He has enough experience that I'd bet the under on his FIP and xFIP - but the question is, by how much? His FIP and xFIP are awful, so he needs to blow them away to be effective. So far he's done that, but so did Matt Cain for a long time. Now he's in his 4th consecutive year with an ERA being worse than his defense-independent stats. Santiago is doing it with BABIP - his home rate is normal. So I suppose the question is whether you think Hector Santiago essentially has the BABIP skill of Mariano Rivera or not. I'm guessing not. And this year even a super-low BABIP isn't enough for him to have a good ERA.
  16. drivlikejehu
    Not nearly enough to be confident in his ERA over his FIP and xFIP. It's certainly possible, but the walk rate and fly ball % is a worrisome combination.
  17. drivlikejehu
    Maybe it was all smoke, but there were persistent rumors that multiple teams were interested in Suzuki. He is worthless to the Twins. There was no reason to hold onto him . . . same with Kintzler. It's not just about return - the Twins need to be playing young guys. Yet they are still holding over too many veterans in the pitching staff. Granted, they have no one at catcher . . . if they were literally offered 0 talent for Suzuki I guess that would be fine. But there's no objective reason to believe that was the case.
  18. drivlikejehu
    They certainly DFA'd guys with money left on their contracts. In this case the Twins actually save money, which isn't exactly a tough sell to the Pohlads. It's an unusual trade for sure, so that's why there isn't a direct analogue from the TR days. Bottom line is that they held onto players that should have been moved. Santana is arguable so I'm not too concerned about that, but Suzuki and Kintzler? Fail.
  19. drivlikejehu
    The problem is the deals Antony didn't make, which has been a theme in the past as well. This deadline certainly did nothing to indicate Antony represents anything other than a continuation of the same old.
  20. drivlikejehu
    Yeah, I mean they are 14th in BaseRuns scored per game. Not amazing or anything, but all things considered it's not bad. Of course, 28th in BaseRuns allowed per game . . .
  21. drivlikejehu
    I'm sure some of the Santana talk was posturing by the Twins, nothing wrong with that of course. But I am curious to see what they got, if the rumor is correct.
  22. drivlikejehu
    Abad has very limited value and it shows in the return. But it's a good move . . . Light can stay at AAA and hopefully get his command to a more viable level.
  23. drivlikejehu
    Unless some deals are effectively done but just not finalized. I'm concerned of course, since I don't have any confidence in Antony.
  24. drivlikejehu
    I didn't make reference to any specific authorities, but instead provided an assertion based on what seems to me to be common sense. If you have empirical evidence that says otherwise, please share so that I can re-visit my opinion.
  25. drivlikejehu
    Link?
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