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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Donny Batty.
  2. jkcarew
    The thing that appears to have flipped is his ability to K right-handed hitters as well as lefties. And my guess is that this wasn’t ‘unlocked’ by the Twins, but was learning from things he picked up experimenting during his two years in independent ball and two years in the minors after that. Good story.
  3. jkcarew
    So how does the rule present a disadvantage to the Twins? Because they can’t put balls in play or hit the ball to the right side of the field when they need too? Because they’re a poor base-running team? Because their bullpen lacks quality in its depth? That’s on the club, not the rule. FWIW…The 7-inning dh games bother me WAY more than the extra-inning rule.
  4. jkcarew
    That's what you would do if it were a chronic issue, and this sounds like it has the makings of having that potential. Exactly…that’s my point. Not good. The other side of that is there’s always lasting performance risk to changing your swing. To me, it matters what he means by “tweek”
  5. jkcarew
    I fully expect the next move to be the hiring of a former Red’s administrative assistant 12-months removed from carpal tunnel surgery for $8/ hr.
  6. jkcarew
    Agree on all three. Balazovic maybe the most. On the 40-man…spinning his wheels means he’s already blocking anyone that might emerge from helping the team.
  7. jkcarew
    I'm still two simultaneous long-term injuries in the infield away from being glad we have both Solano and Farmer. One would have been enough, wouldn't it? If we traded Gordon for a pitching prospect (or solid bullpen guy) it would make more sense. Not that I particularly want Gordon traded, but I would understand the swap for a shorter-term (and right-handed) solution in exchange for the pitching capital.
  8. jkcarew
    "He also hopes that continued tweaks to his lower-half usage when swinging can take more pressure off his arms." I mean...it's probably reading way too much into one partial quote. Still, there's no way to make that sound good.
  9. jkcarew
    Buxton’s bat Is not that spectacular against right-handed pitching that you want him DH’ing a ton in that situation (assuming he can run). Incredibly diminished value if you do. Similar to Mauer playing 1B and OPS’ing 750…at last the club waited to his age 31 season for that (and no, it didn’t keep Mauer from getting injuries). No thanks to compromising Buxton at age 29. On the other hand, against lefties, it would be the perfect opportunity for some rest, if he wants it. But that doesn’t add up to a ton of games at DH. One underrated factor…with the NL finally going to the DH, there are fewer ‘classic’ (Cruz, Thome, Big Hurt…very good to great aging and/or immobile bats) to go around. Those guys were always somewhat rare obviously, but they were all in the AL. Now MORE teams will have no option but to mix and match.
  10. jkcarew
    “Solano did boast a .309/.380/.568 slash line against southpaws last year” No he didn’t. Try .301/.348/.422 (.770 OPS)…career .711 OPS against lefties. There’s no way this guy was brought on to be insurance at 1B or DH. For context, both Christian Vazquez and Ryan Jeffers have better 2022 and career numbers against lefties than does Solano. “Donny Bats” has to be something his agent came up with. I just have a hard time believing this is the guy you sign if your objective is to ‘bolster’ the lineup against southpaws. I only understand it in the context of Polanco isn’t right, Gordon is being traded and/or Lewis’s 2023 is at serious risk.
  11. jkcarew
    Can't be for Gordon. Not that Gordon is destined for the HOF by any means, but Gordon just had a better age-26 season than Solano just had an age-34 season. It's a one year deal. Something has to be wrong with someone. (Maybe even something off-the-field??). I guess we'll see.
  12. jkcarew
    I’ll respectfully disagree. Last year, only 52% of Buxton’s PA’s even resulted in a ball in-play. The large majority of those were in the air. The Outfielders will continue to shift him. The new rules for the infielders will have minimal impact.
  13. jkcarew
    Come on. Small sample, small sample, small sample. Buxton only hits the ball on the ground by accident. He beats the shift with fly balls and deep drives. I predict a MUCH more muted impact regarding the shift rules. And Buxton will fit right into that category. He’s not going to start trying to hit the ball on the ground…his GB rate is low and headed lower every year, and the FB rate is high and headed higher every year. When he accidentally hits the ball on the ground…and it’s accidentally up the middle…he’ll be more likely to get a single. Won’t happen nearly of frequently as people think it will. The pull side fielder will play in the hole and these guys aren’t going to change their swings to try and hit line drives up the middle. They’re not. Lefties like Kepler have a better chance to see something significant IF the second basemen play significantly shallower. But I’m not expecting much. Still, the typical lefty can now do nothing but pull and launch, striking out at ever increasing rates in the effort…all while raising his BA from 220 to 225. This rule has ‘law of unintended consequences’ written all over it.
  14. jkcarew
    No thank you to both Larnach and Kepler in the lineup against lefties.
  15. jkcarew
    “Wouldn't (it) be refreshing to have a few players actually beat their estimated return timelines for a change?” Not if it’s primarily achieved by simply lowering the bar of expectations. And I can’t help but fear while reading this article that that will be the modus operandi.
  16. jkcarew
    Always a fun exercise. Last year your Raya bet was the equivalent of a craps player putting $2 on 8. This year, with Cavaco, you’re putting your money on snake eyes. Really, really long odds there, IMO. More likely would be someone like Severino, Nowlin, Salas…even Enlow or Sabato?
  17. jkcarew
    You know that time you saw your kid doing something stupid, but it was obvious that there wouldn’t be significant consequences, so you just shook your head instead of dressing him down? Such was the FO deal given Dobnak. Harmless, but bewildering, and not exactly confidence-inspiring. Nevertheless, I remain happy for Dobnak, he had some perseverance to him, got the payday, and will continue to enjoy that for another 3 years…and probably the rest of his life. I don’t expect to see him in the majors in 2023 under anything less than apocalyptic Twins-baseball circumstances…by that I mean there’s a 50% chance.
  18. jkcarew
    Easier to take a guy that’s stretched out and give him a reliever slot in the event of injury/ineffectiveness of a reliever, than to take a reliever and plunk him in as a starter in the event of similar situation with a starter. Just common sense in order to provide maximum flexibility out of the gate. I don’t read anything into it other than that. Mixing and matching sooner rather than later can be assumed.
  19. jkcarew
    I’m only interested in how many games he plays in center. With Buxton, the great SLG comes with a very low OBP…and he’s not going to be steeling bases in numbers anymore, either…irregardless of the larger bases. The result is a good run producer, but not great or unique in that regard. Also, keep in mind that, with this roster, DH’ing Buxton agains left-handed pitching probably forces an additional left-handed OF bat into the the lineup. Meanwhile, if you DH him against right-handed pitching, his run producing ability suffers further…(career 293 OBP against righties…299 last year). So, Buxton as a DH…especially with this roster…does nothing for me, and I don’t think it will do much of anything for the Twins in 2023, either. Strange but true… Buxton and Gallo are almost exactly the same age and have almost exactly the same career OPS+. (Gallo is 29 days older than Buxton, will a career OPS+ of 109, vs Buxton’s 108; Gallo has appeared in 167 more games than Buxton.)
  20. jkcarew
    Exactly!
  21. jkcarew
    In most years and among the typical high-level Twins prospect, this would have entailed catastrophic damage to the pitching fingers/hand, necessitating a dozen surgeries and Balazovic having to learn to throw with his left hand. My take? This is going to be the year the breaks turn in our favor!! And we can thank our lucky stars that we have the only Canadian athlete in history that doesn’t know how to land a punch in a fist-fight.
  22. jkcarew
    If you put Mauer on here, you need to put Oliva. Oliva had just as many great years as Mauer. Blyleven a no-brainer if he hadn’t left at such a young age. Hard to overstate how good he was in first stint with Twins ‘70-‘75. In an era where starters paced themselves…no max-efforting every pitch, instead pitching 300 innings/yr…still nobody could hit him, and with a ton of swing-and-miss.
  23. jkcarew
    If you put Mauer on here, you need to put Oliva. Oliva had just as many great years as Mauer.
  24. jkcarew
    Fwiw…my 2023 PECOTA comp comes out as 1936 Babe Ruth. ZiPS has me at 1961 Ted Williams.
  25. jkcarew
    The only thing meaningful I take from this is that our best starter comes out at around the 33rd best. So, basically…and on average, every team in the league has almost exactly 1.0 starters better than the Twins best starter. Now, we know in the real world this means some teams have more than one better (let’s call them “contenders”) and some have none (“tankers”). Twins are right in between…this is SUCH a Classic Minnesota Twins factoid.
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