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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    Not enough.
  2. jkcarew
    I know these are supposed to be fun and academic exercises. But Cincinnati was a playoff team last year...I don’t think the loss of one piece is going to send them headlong into an immediate rebuild. This is Cincinnati, not Miami. Meanwhile, the Reds are looking at three more years of Castillo at an insanely good value...he’s not in any way currently contributing to payroll issues for the club. Bottom line, it would require a massive overpay to get Castillo in 2021. So, that’s what I’ll be looking for tomorrow...a massive overpay. Anything less than that is quite unrealistic. To do the ‘all-in’ thing, the timing for the partner needs to work, and it doesn’t with Cincinnati and Castillo.
  3. jkcarew
    I don’t have a problem with the exclusion of Lewis on this list. There have been questions about his hit tool from day one and he hasn’t exactly quieted them. When the best argument for inclusion is the weakness of the list, it’s not much of an endorsement. I also wouldn’t argue his inclusion toward the bottom. It is what it is...but, I don’t think the Twins are unique here as the hit and other tools whither into near-irrelevance compared to Power in the modern game. Gabriel Maciel?
  4. jkcarew
    Something mechanical to unlock a tick of two of velo? Maybe. But I don’t see that (or endurance...he couldn’t get in any better shape) as the primary issue, either. Command and consistency. He’s aggressive (which I love), but his stuff is not so dominant that he can consistently get away with mistakes (unless of course he’s pitching against the 2017-2019 Royals, Tigers, or White Sox against whom he padded the stats you cite quite handsomely). Berrios already has a combination of velocity and movement that is solidly above average. And while, to his credit, he’s been consistently willing to throw the ball over the plate, his command within the strike zone seems wildly inconsistent and sometimes, flat non-existent.
  5. jkcarew
    We can assume, then that any player caught violating the protocols will be immediately released as well? Or is this only the policy for employees with modest salaries/contracts for which the club would potentially be liable? The latter, I’m guessing.
  6. jkcarew
    Cool article. I especially liked the ‘played other sports in HS’, the ‘D2’, and the ‘effortless 97’ parts. FWIW, I’ll take the effortless 97 over the max-effort 100 every time. Good luck to all!
  7. jkcarew
    I would hope the Twins make an offer commensurate with a talented and valuable defensive player who is often injured and who hasn’t yet proven to be valuable offensively. Last year was a short sample with wildly unsustainable small-sample ISO and HR/FB numbers...the career offensive numbers speak for themselves...and was already so broken at the end of last season that he was benched in the playoffs. So, that type of offer. If some club is still in love with the concept that is Byron Buxton, you trade him to that club. If not, I have no problem with a middling offer and hoping for the best.
  8. jkcarew
    Ah, there it is. The annual ‘this will be the year Kepler’s BABIP normalizes’ article. To be fair, this is the first in this early spring tradition that does more than hint that the issue is not really bad luck and shifts, but instead, Kepler’s approach and swing. Which it 100% is. His offensive value has been anchored to how often the fly balls to right field leave the park. Period. And if the 2021 ball is as ‘different’ from the 2019 ball as feared (by batters)...I’m not holding my breath on a great year from Kepler. Can he change his approach at age 28? Maybe. He may need to.
  9. jkcarew
    It’s a good question as we saw time and again how Rocco wanted the left-handed bat in the 4 hole...almost no matter how Rosario was swinging it. Still, Buxton is not an option, even if he ran like Usain Bolt. It’s taken 1500 PA to establish his .289 career OBP (it actually went further in the wrong direction in 2021). How many additional PA with different outcomes would it take for Baldelli to reconsider? A lot...like hundreds, I’m guessing. Depending upon who’s playing (which catcher and whether Arraez is in the lineup and for whom)... Right handed starter: Arraez or Kepler with Arraez if they’re both in the lineup. (Polanco’s an option, as well) Lefty: Garver or Josh Donaldson (or Arraez) How Kirilloff profiles at the major league level (and how soon) will go a long way in deciding what Rocco can do with Kepler.
  10. jkcarew
    I’d be surprised if Gordon ever spends more than one ‘experimental’ season on a MLB active roster...and with a rebuilding team. Any scenario that has the Twins having to rely on him for a Major League role in 2021 is, basically, disaster. Anything more from Gordon would start with better health, and include, shall we say, better...”hunger” (which is probably the biggest difference between Dozier and Gordon). I like the Blankenhorn comp...seems about a perfect parallel. Also Rooker in a scenario where he is able to cut down on the swing-and-miss and suddenly leave us with big doses of that super hard contact.
  11. jkcarew
    I mean, it’s not likely simply because even among those that start strong and show the potential (as Arraez has), only about one in a hundred are going to end up developing near the level Carew/Gwynn achieved. Could happen of course. I think Arraez is more limited with his lack of high end speed. Also, with his swing, it’s hard to see him ever getting to 10-15 HR in a season. Still, I have no problem with where Arraez is on this list. I think his AVE/OBP could be sustainably high enough to be valuable...and it’s arguable that it’s more valuable to this club than is Jeffers’ SLG, just based on scarcity.
  12. jkcarew
    Yikes! Pretty thin in terms of accomplishment these days. Under 25 lists are always swayed to potential relative to accomplishment (in MLB terms), but this is fairly extreme. Kinda highlights that the Twins are not really a young team any more. Need the next wave to start impacting soon.
  13. jkcarew
    Open it up, Governor Walz!,
  14. jkcarew
    Why is doing something within the rules...rules agreed to by the players union...”unethical”. It’s either good for the club in the long term or it’s not. Nothing more, nothing less. The notion that this is any more “unethical” than a player deciding to leave teammates and an organization that have treated him well for any amount of additional money...well, it’s not a terribly objective stance. One is try to maximize long term value to the club...in other words, do their job. The other is doing the best for himself and his family. Nothing unethical about either regardless of whether we like the rule or the outcomes.
  15. jkcarew
    You expected to see Celestino last season? As an emergency to temporarily avoid other undesirable player/roster moves, I guess...(as they had to do with Polanco in 2014 and 2015). But Polanco then, like Celestino now, was only on the 40-man due to the ridiculous rule-5 requirements as it relates to promising international signees. Cave and Kepler in center (whether we like it or not)...as has been the case; numerous options in the corners; road trip to Wichita if we want to see Celestino in the summer.
  16. jkcarew
    Merrifield’s been a better player than Max. But not by a lot, and they’re at the age where it’s possible, even likely, that Max hasn’t peaked...while Merrifield is just getting to the flip side of that. Tough call.
  17. jkcarew
    I like it. If you squint just a bit when you look at Walker and imagine a slightly lower walk rate and a little better durability...you have a really nice #3. Doesn’t answer the ‘true ace’ prayer, but still.
  18. jkcarew
    Not thinking it will do anything to maintain his differentiating range in CF as he approaches age 30 either. About the last guy on the team that I thought “getting in better shape” was a key needed to unlock improvement. But then again, who knows. It’s almost spring time.
  19. jkcarew
    Way too high. Let’s face it, if Cavaco had been drafted at the bottom of the first round or in the second round somewhere (where consensus projected him to go weeks ahead of the draft), he’d be well outside the top 10. Doesn’t matter if you’re drafted #13 overall, or if you’re raw, or if you’re ‘adjusting’, or if you just turned 18: when you come in with questions on the hit tool and you’re completely overwhelmed by instructional league pitching, even in a short timeframe, to the extent that Cavaco was...you’re a lottery ticket. A very shiny one perhaps, but a lottery ticket.
  20. jkcarew
    Agreed. Good depth/numbers regarding quality it seems...but not balanced across positions. I guess that’s where making the right trades...at the right time...come into play. Certainly a unique exercise in ranking coming off a cancelled season. I’d agree with Javier’s slide and the flip at the top. Cavaco too high.
  21. jkcarew
    Yeah. So many red flags. The .577 SLG with the .267 OBP...enabled by a ridiculously high HR/FB ratio in a short sample. He’s done lots of nice things in short samples, but the career 91 OPS+ speaks for itself. Hear he’s coming into camp with significantly more muscle. Interesting. If he loses even a step in range, the hitting deficiencies are magnified.
  22. jkcarew
    And yet, they rank Lewis high (relative to the other services). The only reasonable conclusion can be that they see Lewis as the next incarnation of Ozzie Smith in the middle of the infield, because if they don’t like Kirilloff’s swing... I guess we should consider ourselves lucky if they’ve got both right...or both wrong.
  23. jkcarew
    I’m encouraged that many here feel Buxton has ‘arrived’ offensively. Still, can’t say I’m convinced. Finished last year a complete mess...and posted in the shortened season a completely unsustainable HR/FB. IMO, both Robert and Buxton have much proving yet to do. But one of them will start the season at age 23. The other at 27.
  24. jkcarew
    I would like Kirilloff to be the opening day left fielder. But I understand why that might not happen from a business standpoint. I have no issues with the FO taking advantage of rule that was collectively bargained with the players. Still, it’s probably fair to say there is risk with either side of that decision for the FO.
  25. jkcarew
    Issues hitting, then a pandemic, and now injuries. So, we’ll likely not see this #1 overall pick until 2023... SIX years after having drafted him...and with the possibility that his best and most reliable tool (speed) will already be in decline. Sigh.
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