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jkcarew

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Everything posted by jkcarew

  1. jkcarew
    High leverage?? Were there six guys on base when Gordon batted? Even if there had been a ‘high leverage’ point in this game (there wasn’t)…it still wouldn’t have been actual high leverage because the games absolutely don’t matter at this point. And then there’s this….why WOULD you keep your best defensive player in a game like this? I’ve got some issues with Rocco, but not at all for something like this under these circumstances. Not even close.
  2. jkcarew
    We agree!
  3. jkcarew
    My only worry is that Sawer Gipson-Long and Simeon Woods-Richardson will consume a total of 3 lines on the 40-man roster.
  4. jkcarew
    Thanks for this. Overall, it doesn’t seem that he’s particularly close…or at least not particularly close to being effective at the major league level given his secondary pitches are such works-in-progress.
  5. jkcarew
    It was a coincidence that they didn’t sign any other big ticket guys. And also a coincidence that they couldn’t trade him…for anything…at any point over the last 5 years when he was no longer Joe Mauer.
  6. jkcarew
  7. jkcarew
    Not unless they get good value in a Buxton trade AND two of the young guys are good immediately.
  8. jkcarew
    No…this was another sad chapter, unique to the Twins. You didn’t need WAR to know that Puckett and Ripken and Mattingly were good, and you didn’t need it to know Davis was bad. Problem was, Davis was a big get (and “expensive”) in a trade for Smalley with the Yankees. Davis was ‘good’ with the Yankees. And more to the point, this was the Calvin Griffith Twins!! It took the new regime one disastrous year to move him out of leverage. And before the end of the 1986 season sited, he was dumped in a trade. During the 1970’s and first half of the 80’s, mlb modernized quite a bit, but you wouldn’t have seen it following the Twins.
  9. jkcarew
    “…given Buxton’s .903 OPS over the past three seasons…” I think you meant to say over his last 540 plate appearances. Sign him for a discount based on the health AND performance risk…or trade him before the season starts.
  10. jkcarew
    Mite be a bit early for that claim…it looks strong with 8 players in the majors, but 5 of those with negative bWAR at this point…and they’re all just getting their feet wet…and Miranda and Balazovic not having even dipped a tow yet. Bringing up the 2016 draft in this thread does, however, raise the question…why isn’t this article about Tyler Wells? ?
  11. jkcarew
    If Reed is a mistake, then they made it 3 times. He has been waived twice this year, each time being claimed by a team with a better record than the Twins. I think that’s a pretty firm “no”…in that this FO at least doesn’t think a mistake was made. Even guys like Ynoa…sure it’d be great to have that one back…but a very common sentiment on this site at the time is that the Twins should have gone bigger at that deadline. 90% here are going to complain if you aren’t willing to trade prospects at the deadline (when headed for the playoffs)…and 90% will complain that the trade was made when the prospect turns out to be good.
  12. jkcarew
    Dobnak started 5 games…and the numbers speak for themselves. And nobody proves their worth in spring training facing lineups peppered with minor leaguers. Nobody. I agree that he was serviceable in previous years, though, so maybe there’s hope. I’m not optimistic.
  13. jkcarew
    Not sure how I’m supposed to feel sorry for Dobnak. He was awful as a starter this year almost immediately. I’d venture a guess that he was happy to have an opportunity to move to the pen…not to mention very happy with the contract that the Twins gave him…and absolutely 100% didn’t have to or need to give him. To be fair to him, he’s still just 26 years old…so, there’s still a chance, I guess. And while the old-timers were around, they watched the Twins take 2 of 3 against the best team in the AL.
  14. jkcarew
    Honestly IMO, it’s a no-brained to DFA Dobnak. If someone wants his contract, fine…if not, he’s filler at AAA…the contract is nothing. If the prospects (and literally any FA) aren’t at least immediately as good (bad) as Dobnak, you’ve got bigger issues. I guess maybe they think he can be a useful bullpen arm. I don’t…unless you consider the guy who comes in and eats innings in blowouts ‘useful’. Keeping guys like this around simply because you gave them a contract, a small one at that, is exactly how losing organizations stay losing organizations. I don’t think you have both Rooker and Garlick on the 40- man, at least in 2022 (unless you move Sano, I suppose). That makes it tough to keep Garlick, even though he’s outperformed Rooker to this point. In general, I’m not high on 5-11 pitchers with any history of arm issues. But I suppose desperation warrants that you give Colina a chance.
  15. jkcarew
    Don’t understand how Garrit Cole was able to silence that lineup. Obviously, we just choked.?
  16. jkcarew
    Wow…lots of definitive opinions based on watching 4 innings. The swings and misses are encouraging. I’m pretty sure we’ll see him this year. If I were Buxton and had been out as long as he has, I’d want to see some AAA PA’s…not a lot, but some, before stepping in against the Major leaguers.
  17. jkcarew
    It’s a chasm. Unless you think Arraez is going to wRC+ 150-170 over a 5 year period like Carew or have multiple years in the 150-160 range like Gwynn…stealing 50 bases and hitting 12-17 home runs. Hundreds of players have put up nice batting averages immediately. And 99% didn’t end up Carew or Gwynn…and the vast majority didn’t come close. Those guy were both stronger and way faster than Arraez…not even in the same universe athletically. Arraez does great with what he has, and I’ll continue to enjoy what he brings to the club. I think you’re going to be wrong on Mauer. Well see.
  18. jkcarew
    His ceiling is nowhere near Carew or Gwynn. Doesn’t mean he isn’t good and can’t get better. And you’re going to be disappointed on that Mauer thing.
  19. jkcarew
    The K’s really aren’t the scariest thing with Larnach…it’s the lack of power/SLG. Larnach’s OBP this season….322…he shows good signs of discipline in the box. Kirilloff, who seems to get himself out at a high rate by swinging at pitcher’s pitches early in the count…his OBP was 299. But, Kirilloff makes up for it somewhat with the x-base pop. Both have a good ways to go.
  20. jkcarew
    No way do I have Lewis #1 at this point. His bat is a huge question mark, unless you consider 95 AFL PA…two years and an ACL ago…his arrival. Keep in mind that if he isn’t a major league shortstop ( very much debated by scouts), the threshold for the bat goes up significantly. For instance, who is a better 3rd base prospect right now…Miranda or Lewis? Who’s the better CF prospect…Martin or Lewis? I still believe in the upside, but for me way too much has happened in the last two years…and two weeks…for Lewis to be #1. Also, Jermaine Palacios has earned a spot in the top 30…perhaps in place of Javier. These rankings are fun….keep them coming!
  21. jkcarew
    I agree that Buxton’s situation would have an impact on how they look at SS free agents this year. Not sure how anyone would draw the conclusion that the Twins see Gordon as a major league SS. They played him there 2 games of the 38 he had with the big club…and it’s not like Simmons was demanding at bats with his performance. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they end up rostering Palacios. I’d put him at more like 20%.
  22. jkcarew
    And it wasn’t just walks and errors, he was getting hit… 6 hits in 1.2 innings. We’ll see. Hopefully, he’s healthy.
  23. jkcarew
    Palacios.
  24. jkcarew
    You’re confusing value with consistency. The above demonstrates modest value (which I’d agree with), not remarkable inconsistency. Not uncommon at all for a perfectly ‘consistent’ player to have full-year WAR that deviates in magnitude 2, 3, 4 per year. Check out Kirby Puckett. There’s BABiP in play year to year along with extremely imperfect defensive stats, and normal variation in performance.
  25. jkcarew
    So, to summarize…Sano’s been better than Kirilloff, even accounting for his first awful months. But not significantly better. Meanwhile, significantly better than both Larnach and Kepler. Also, he was benched. Being ‘platooned’ has had nothing to do with his performance…his splits have been better against righties than lefties this year. Bottom line, there is nothing in Sano’s overall performance that warrants the FO being in a hurry to get rid of him. They can wait for the next generation to actually arrive rather than assume they will arrive.
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