TD 2019 Top Minnesota Twins Prospects Recap

True, there's always a risk when a prospect hasn't played above A-ball.

But, the depth of the system....there's safety in numbers.   Chances are better that some will will break through and be contributors, maybe even stars.

Safe to say this is the strongest class since 2014/2015? 

Anyone not in the top 3 should be viewed as expendable to trade for established MLers.

"When Minnesota's front office talks about biding its time, and waiting to develop further clarity before charting a decisive course, they aren't just talking about the big-league club. We're going to learn a ton about the farm system this summer."

I'm looking forward to following Ft Myers this year. The A+ rotation should include five real prospects at some time during the season (probably not all together): Graterol, Enlow, Balazovic, Duran, and Colina. I don't recall the Twins ever having that much pitching at one minor league club. Add in Miranda, Jeffers, Larnach, Helman and Baddoo…that's a pretty good team. Hopefully a few break out.

Of course, Pensacola will have the top two prospects, if not top three, at some point. AA is a big step - should be fun.

Nice review - the comment section is also filled with good observations.  I start getting excited when the players are ready to step up to MLB.  How many of these 20 can we expect to see in 2019 or 2020?

I didn't see it mentioned here (maybe I missed it), but Law stated the following about Javier:

"Javier is expected to be ready for spring training, although that surgery could affect his arm and may push him to second base."

Is this rumor-mongering or is there real concern he might have to move to 2nd?  That would hurt his value quite a bit considering he probably doesn't hit well enough to be "average" at second, right? 

"Not since Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano were eligible have the Twins held this kind of national prestige in the prospect arena. I realize that sentence probably made some of you groan...."

 

Pretty hard not to be a little jaded after the Buxton/Sano hype, for years we heard how great they were going to be. They could still become great but I'm not holding my breath. Same way with the current crop of prospects, I'm not holding my breath.

 

Rosario, Kepler, Polanco, and Berrios are good players but when was the last time a Twins prospect developed into a true superstar?? Joe Mauer??

Let's keep in mind that Lewis and Kirilloff are not Sano and Buxton for starters. Also, it's mostly ourselves and a few pundits that we hear talking about how great they were, and we're talking the same way about Lewis and Kirilloff now. I don't think the uniques misfortunes that Buxton and Sano encountered in the past couple of years have an ounce of relevance here. There's no pattern to be found. Why would one bet that Lewis is going to be more like Buxton than Mauer? Not that Buxton's a bust.

It was advisable to avoid thinking of Sano and Buxton as the next Miggy and Trout, and it's equally advisable to avoid thinking of Lewis and Kirriloff as the next Jeter and Yelich as well, but we still have reason to be very very excited about these two.

Here's some optimistic information: of the top ten prospects on TD lists looking back 3 to 5 years, 8 of 10 are having an impact (I'm generously including both Sano and Buxton and expect to be vindicated in 2019). The exceptions have been injury-prone fireballers: Meyer, Burdi, and Jay.

You also might feel better if you click on the link to the 2017 TD Top 20 and compare it to this year's. I may be wrong, but I think the current list looks measurably better. Based on the grades others attach to prospects, I think the experts would agree with this, and the rankings suggest it too.

I really thought this would be the offseason that we would trade some of our plethora of prospects for established, successful  MLB players. We had/have the money and early talk about a Paul Goldschmidt trade and possible Greinke throwin to enhance the deal had me salivating. We've talked hot prospects for a decade now and are finding most are suspects we are still waiting on. We have been dealing with futility for a decade now and should have a solid farm system built up from top picks; however, to get to the level of the top teams we have to cash in some of these top prospects not named Lewis, Kiriloff or Graterol  to get established stars. Fans need some excitement from the MLB team and not pipe dreams from the prospects.

1. The DBacks wanted (and got) MLB ready/MLB experienced top prospects. The Twins don't have anybody like that. That means in order to convince them to change their plan and go with a rebuild, instead of a retool, you'd have to give up one of our top 3. I'm cool if that's something you'd like to see, but the idea that you're bringing in a perennial MVP candidate by trading a bunch of non-elite prospects is rather far fetched I think. If you wanted them to trade MLBers for him then I'm not sure what you think this team would have been capable of without a pair of Rosario, Berrios, or Kepler, because that's what it would take to get a perennial MVP.

 

2. Grienke as a thrown in suggests the Twins would have been taking on all, or at least 90%, of his current contract. He is due $34,500,000 in 2019, and $35,000,000 in both 2020 and 2021. Goldschmidt is a free agent after 2019 and is going to get something in the 3-5 years, $30 mil a year range of a contract. That means you're paying 2 guys $60 mil a year for the next 3 years. What sort of team do you think the Twins can put around them? Keep in mind you just traded away either 2 established MLBers and some of your top 4-15 prospects, or a pair of your 3 top prospects. Big names are all well and good, and I'd like to see the Twins a take a swing at them at some point, but this is not the time to do it through trade.

 

Now if you want to argue that the Twins should be in on Harper, Machado, Kimbrel and/or Keuchel I'd be more inclined to agree there. I don't think trades for high priced guys is a smart move at this point. Each year we are seeing more and more that it takes the entire 25 man roster to win in the post season, and the whole 40 man to win in the regular season. A roster with a couple high priced studs and a bunch of sub-replacement level bums is not a recipe for fixing the Twins' woes. But with the hope that your roster is going to be filled with low priced, top flight young talent for the next 6-8 years I think this is a good time for us to make a splash with a FA signing. I'd love to see Keuchel in a Twins uni for something like 3 years and $60 mil. I think the Padres are looking at their next 6-8 years and seeing that their entire team will be pretty cheap as they call up a stable of young stud arms and a few uber-talented position players and that's why they're chasing Harper and Machado. 

 

In conclusion, I'd love to see improved play at Target Field (I actually feel pretty good about this team compared to how I've felt the last few), but it needs to be done the right way so we don't watch it fall off a cliff again in 3 or 4 years. And I think making any trades at this point would really raise the likelihood of that happening. As someone earlier posted, it's a numbers game with prospects. And a team who refuses to (or can't depending on who you ask) spend big money needs to have a constant stream of prospects. I think the FO has that stream in place and will open the tap in the next couple years and we'll see if their plan worked or not. I think we also all need to prepare ourselves to start seeing our top guys get traded as FA gets closer. I think that'll be the next step in the plan for continued contention. We'll see how it all plays out.

Excellent post!

There are a number of names on the top 20 that reflect the new management's creativity in acquiring young talent:

Severino: scoop up when others mess up.

Enlow: work the bonus pool to get guys on day 2 that were otherwise college bound.

Duran, Celestino, Alcala, Littel: good return at trade deadline.

I think the farm will be rich as long as these guys are in charge. Hitting on your first 2 drafts doesn't hurt either.

I would rather see a prospect list of 20 high ceiling prospects than one that contained 10. Lower ceiling players are always available cheaply to fill in. . See Odorizzi, Perez, Austin, Cave, and other pieces the team has easily picked up. High end major league players are not so easily picked up.

I think it's easy to quibble about the order of the rankings, but that has already been expressed previously.

Based on early results, potential, and the thoughts of others not involved with TD, I do wonder a bit about Balazovic not appearing in the top 20. I have a feeling that will change come this time next year, if not a mid-season re-shuffle.

It may sound strange to say, but one of the things that intrigues me is the listing of prospects that were honorable mention outside the top 20. There are a lot of guys there that have real ML potential in the next couple of years.

My greatest "concern" is also the thing that excites me most. There is just so much talent and potential on this top 20 list, despite some question marks. There are a couple guys here rough around the edges with, maybe, lower floors, but with very high ceilings. Alcala and Duran are prime examples. Both have big arms and each could be part of the rotation in the next couple of years, but each has enough to work on to project as quality relievers instead, or wash out as just tantalizing hard throwers. But that's where the new FO, new coaches, and a new way of doing things comes in to play.

Reminds me of that story Bill Murray told in Caddy Shack, the one about caddying for the Dali Lama. Not the story itself mind you, but his line in the end.

"So, I got that going for me." 

The team today is the one we're cheering for, the one we will doubtless be cursing for its deficiencies sometime around the All Star break. It's great that the Twins have highly ranked prospects in their organization, but that's actually been true for a while now. We're supposed to be firmly into a wave of players that were supposed to be lifting the team into contention, at least within the humble division. Nope, nope, nope. Injuries, embarrassments, and a failure to lay off outside curve balls has been the yearly gruel of our disappointment. 

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. We are, after all, mostly from Minnesota. Dress warm and stay safe, comrades. 

I don't think they are going to trade their prospects, not unlike TR. We basically have 3   drafts. Rule 4, IFA, and the trade deadline. And no, they don't have to throw in the towel to have a very active deadline. They showed that in 2017. It's all about asset management to them.

When Severino became available from the Braves, we jumped all over him because we came close previously. Look at how many IFA's we picked up at the 2018 trade deadline. I'm guessing we are using our extensive IFA expertise to target these prospects when they become available on the trade market.

If we make a blockbuster trade, it will most likely involve the core of 4 plus Rosario and Polanco.