What To Expect From Ervin Santana

Like rock music’s Santana, Ervin’s delivery is now Smooth

In 2012, Santana was a mess. His velocity was down, his command had escaped him and opponents were dropping dingers all over place (he allowed an MLB-high 39 home runs).

While with the Angels, manager Mike Scioscia questioned whether Santana could maintain a consistent release point and often found his mechanics erratic. Whether his mechanics played a role, the right-handed witnessed a decline in his fastball’s velocity and the ability to regularly throw it for a strike. That year 23 of his league-leading 39 home runs came on his fastball. Tired of paying for more baseballs, Los Angeles decided not to pick up his option for 2013 and traded him to Kansas City.

Somewhere between California and Missouri, Santana smoothed out rough spots in his delivery that had plagued him with the Angels. Most noticeably, in 2012 Santana had the habit of tilting his upper body towards the first base side while in the full windup before driving towards home. The result of this was a front side that would fly open (his glove side drifting towards the first base line prematurely) and creating issues for his command.

http://i.imgur.com/DW5rEpk.gif

At some point with the Royals, this was corrected and his upper body weight stayed above his back leg and tilted slightly towards the third base side while gathering. When driving towards the plate he remains on line and his glove side does not flip as quickly.

http://i.imgur.com/aouOjZd.gif

In these two examples both catchers are indicating they want a slider thrown down and on Santana’s glove side. Because of the mechanics in 2012, his arm drags and is not able to finish the slider properly. The slider stays up and in. (Although he misses his spot, Seattle’s Jesus Montero is flummoxed anyway as everyone knows his bats are afraid of balls that curve.) In the 2014 example, because of his fluid and smooth delivery Santana is able to place his slider in a much better spot.

According to ESPN/TruMedia, Santana has shown a much better tendency of burying the slider and keeping it out of the middle of the strike zone:

http://i.imgur.com/dM5yuzX.gif

In addition to the slider, Santana’s fastball also lost some velocity in 2012. While not even one mile per hour on average, it still was a noticeable drop. Like the slider, he was unable to locate the fastball in the zone.

Santana’s most significant improvement came at the apex of his delivery. He still lifts his hands over his head but rather than keeping his glove high and his arms away from his body, he now lowers his glove and keeps everything in tight. This may seem minor but it helps with his tempo. Whereas the Braves’ version is smooth, the Angels delivery feels like his lower and upper halves are playing catch-up throughout his delivery.

In all, smoothing out his delivery has led to better execution and better command of his pitches. If Santana is able to maintain these consistent mechanics, there should be little concern for a repeat of his 2012 campaign.

Adapt or die

While his season in Kansas City could arguably be considered his best, it is hard not to envy the amount of defense he had behind him in Royals uniforms. Because of the coverage, Santana turned in one of the lowest opponent bartting average of his career. In Atlanta, he did not have the same luxury. Getting to face a pitcher in the batting order a few times each game certainly boosted the strikeout numbers but Santana made another adjustment to keep hitters off-balance.

As Fangraphs.com’s Jeff Sullivan pointed out in April, Santana was suddenly unleashing a changeup that he had rarely used in previous seasons. After throwing it just 5.5% of the time from 2009 to 2013, with the Braves Santana upped that to 14%. The wrinkle gave opponents one more pitch to think about and wound up inducing a swing-and-miss nearly 30% of the time.

Deployed mainly on lefties, the seldom seen pitch was making appearances in hitters’ counts and frequently thrown to set up a slider for the kill. In fact, according to ESPN’s data, Santana struck out 24 batters on sliders set up by changeups. In the previous four seasons, he had managed to ring up 12 batters combined using that method.

Revisiting the GIF above, Santana’s strikeout of Washington’s Adam LaRoche came on a slider after he threw a changeup that stayed away for strike two. If you watch LaRoche’s reactions, he is clearly sold on another changeup only to make a foolish effort to make contact when the ball begins to bite.

http://i.imgur.com/aouOjZd.gif

Santana’s changeup seems to be an ever-evolving pitch for him. In Los Angeles, he displayed a split-change, something he picked up from split-fingered fastball specialist Dan Haren. Meanwhile, this past year Santana showed Fangraphs.com’s Eno Sarris his latest changeup grip which looks like a palmball thrown at the fingertips (man, does Santana have some long digits):

But Santana seems to employ multiple grips on his change. There’s also a slight split version and a circle-change looking grip. The trick for Santana has been keeping his arm action similar to the fastball while shaving off some velocity. This past year he threwn it at 84 mph on average, giving him a solid six-to-eight miles an hour of difference between it and his fastball.

Lefties overall finished decently against Santana. When all was said and done, they batted .291 but because of the new mix, Santana was able to strike them out in a greater volume and limit the number of home runs hit.

The takeaway

Over the course of his career, Santana’s hit some high notes. He has also been banged around.

While his slider is a legitimate pitch, he still allows a hefty number of balls in play, most of which are in the form of fly balls. Target Field's pitcher-friendly environment should limit the home runs but the questionable outfield defense may allow more extra base hits.

Based on the changes in his mechanics and his willingness to modify his pitch selection, Santana appears to be headed for a good year in the short-term. The real question is f he can remain healthy and productive in the latter half of his four-year contract.

For now, Santana is a definite upgrade to the Twins rotation.