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  • What Happens to the Twins Front Office for 2023?


    Ted Schwerzler

    The Minnesota Twins postseason hopes are dwindling, and for a team that splurged on the starting lineup this season, no one should be happy with how things went. What happens to the front office when the dust settles, and should they be back?

     

    Image courtesy of © Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

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    First and foremost, yes Derek Falvey and Thad Levine should and will be back for the Twins in 2023. Now that that’s out of the way, there’s absolutely more to dissect here.

    Coming into 2022, Carlos Correa fell into the Minnesota Twins' lap. He needed a place to play, and the Twins had money to spend. $35.1 million allowed Correa to claim the richest contract by average annual value for an infielder across Major League Baseball history. He’s now produced to a point worth that valuation, and he’s going to get paid this offseason. The Twins structured his contract to allow for the length he sought last year, and the opt-outs allow him to capitalize on timing. Yes, he’s opting out. No, that doesn’t mean Minnesota can’t find a way to bring him back.

    Just because Correa was on this team didn’t mean that the front office was going all in. Jhoan Duran was not intended to make the Opening Day roster, and Jose Miranda started the year in St. Paul. Despite swinging a trade for Sonny Gray, Minnesota’s pitching depth included Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer rounding out the rotation. Joe Smith, an aging veteran, was the only bullpen addition. In short, there were some big moves made, but this was a rather conservative stance on talent acquisition.

    The goal from the beginning for this front office has been to create a sustainable winner. While they haven’t necessarily done that, they certainly haven’t failed either. Minnesota has been consistently competitive for the bulk of the past few years, and the farm system has begun to bear fruit. The Twins minor league rankings have dropped in large part due to the graduations. The development of names like Jose Miranda and Joe Ryan has been substantial, and being able to turn prospects like Cade Povich and Spencer Steer into big-league assets is a testament to growth.

    Falvey and Levine have consistently focused on the future though, and as they barrel towards it, now would be a misguided time to pull the plug. The core of Byron Buxton, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, and Miguel Sano was not their group. That talent was a catalyst during the Bomba Squad season, and they remain intact now, but the pairing of what this front office has developed is where they want to go.

    Royce Lewis, Miranda, and a fast emergence of Brooks Lee, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Alex Kirilloff are what Falvey and Levine see in the lineup. They’re hoping to have the likes of Simeon Woods Richardson, Jordan Balazovic, Ronny Henriquez, Blayne Enlow, and Cole Sands give them real starter innings. Everyone mentioned there is close, and they all should provide a higher ceiling than the depth thrust onto the Twins roster this season.

    Of course, no plans are guaranteed, so maybe this wave flops or fails to develop, but after years of Terry Ryan or his referred successors, there’s just very little reason for ownership to pull the plug now.

     

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    I don't think anything happens to the FO.  They were charged with rebuilding the entire organization and the Polhad's have always been patient owners, so I don't see the FO going anywhere.  I hope that there are adjustments to the medical staff and procedures, but not much beyond that.

    Their first draft classes are just now making their way to the big leagues, so I do think that a full evaluation can start to be made now.  Now that they are able to implement their full plan from the ground up, results will be expected.

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    You must be their agent.  Glowing reports on the FO.  I too expect them to be back but I would sure expect to see a better plan, a new computer, a manager that is at least flexible, and some direction for the team.  This team appeared rudderless for the last three months.  If 2023 was always the year to be a great contender they have a long way to go.

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    The FO will be back, so there is no reason to speculate about that issue.  But, they have greatly messed up free agency, and they have made some questionable trades, which have kept them from winning the most winnable division in all of baseball.  Any story line about these two guys being whiz kids is long past.  Now they have four challenges.  First, put together a quality rotation and bullpen, neither of which should feature bargain basement acquisitions.  Maeda, Paddack, and I fear Mahle are big question marks (Mahle having what amounts to season long shoulder issues that are often a precursor to something serious). Second, fix the catching situation.  I don't think Jeffers alone is going to carry this team.  Third, figure out what is behind this team's inability to get big hits, whether it be the personnel, the hitting coach, or something in the water in Minnesota.  Finally, make a decision on Correa once he opts out.  I could see them doing an elaborate dance with Correa in the offseason only to see him end up elsewhere after most of the quality free agents have signed leaving us with an empty bag once again. I wish I was confident they were up to the task. 

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    14 minutes ago, RJA said:

    The FO will be back, so there is no reason to speculate about that issue.  But, they have greatly messed up free agency, and they have made some questionable trades, which have kept them from winning the most winnable division in all of baseball.  Any story line about these two guys being whiz kids is long past.  Now they have four challenges.  First, put together a quality rotation and bullpen, neither of which should feature bargain basement acquisitions.  Maeda, Paddack, and I fear Mahle are big question marks (Mahle having what amounts to season long shoulder issues that are often a precursor to something serious). Second, fix the catching situation.  I don't think Jeffers alone is going to carry this team.  Third, figure out what is behind this team's inability to get big hits, whether it be the personnel, the hitting coach, or something in the water in Minnesota.  Finally, make a decision on Correa once he opts out.  I could see them doing an elaborate dance with Correa in the offseason only to see him end up elsewhere after most of the quality free agents have signed leaving us with an empty bag once again. I wish I was confident they were up to the task. 

    What about the outfield next year, that seems like a huge question mark again. If they go into next year with Buxton, Kepler, AK/Larnach and nobody else for the 3rd year in a row?

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    From what I’ve seen on here looks like 2023 could be disaster. The trades with San Diego were bad as we got fleeced big time-mahle was a bust and we are stuck with him another year. Injuries did twins in but no excuses as other teams deal with this. FO isn’t going anywhere nor in Rocco. If Correa opts out we have Royce which I think will be face of Team.  Buxton needs to be healthy as does our starting pitching. This week is huge as it’s do or die. Need to sweep both series or season is over 

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    There’s a lot of rosy assumptions in this article. The personnel that are going to be the future face of the Twins:  Larnach, AK, Lewis et al, haven’t proved anything apart from they belong on a MLB team-when healthy!  A whole team of Buxton’s?  The stars would have to align just to be competitive. Correa has certainly NOT earned his contract, and I do not think he will get any $300M contract offers. He can get more than the $70M guaranteed, but he’ll be able to do that in one or two years regardless. He’d be a fool to opt out after the year he’s had. I think everyone will be back next year, and they will print more spreadsheets, and the fans will have to see this I’ll-fated experiment run it’s course. 

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    40 minutes ago, RJA said:

    The FO will be back, so there is no reason to speculate about that issue.

    Maybe the scouting personnel needs to change?  How did they NOT see the Mahle injury and what gave them the idea he would be able to play this season.  I think an upgrade to the medical staff should be looked at as well.  

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    There should be no change in the FO.  Baseball has long been a game that it takes several years to see the full impact of changes.  It takes 3 to 7 years for most signed or drafted players to make the majors.  I am not a fan of making changes too quickly in baseball and feel the FO has done just fine overall.  You can attack some of the moves they have made, I fully agree, but they have made plenty of good moves too.  It is not like there is no future with the team, we still have plenty of players in the pipeline to come up.  

    Unlike NFL and NBA where a team can turn things around super fast, it is rare for baseball to see the full effect of a new FO quickly.  I know they have been here for several years now, but we have made playoffs.  The key to a good FO is having a consistent pipeline of players, not just going all in on a few top FA and trade targets hoping they pay off.  Look at Padres, they have signed a ton of top guys, made a ton of trades for top guys and are 20 games back in their division, set to make playoffs if they can hold off the Brewers.  They have not won as the talent they have brought in would expect.  Is it the FO for lack of bring in top talent, no, is it the FO for not having certain depth, no, I mean they are 13 games above .500.  They have a good team but still might not make playoffs because only 7 teams in NL have winning records. 

      If anything, I think we need a new medical team or approach to help figure out why so many of our guys are having soft tissue injuries.  You cannot predict torn ligaments or broken bones normally.  Some may disagree about some of the TJ surgeries, but the fact we have almost a full MLB team on long term IL stints is crazy we even competed as long as we did.

    If people want a perfect FO that never makes a bad trade, bad signing, bad draft pick, you will always be disappointed and will keep firing everyone. As long as the good moves outweigh the bad ones, then I say stick with them. 

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    "They’re hoping to have the likes of Simeon Woods Richardson, Jordan Balazovic, Ronny Henriquez, Blayne Enlow, and Cole Sands give them real starter innings. Everyone mentioned there is close ..."

    You're kidding, right?

    SWR? Maybe.

    The rest of that group is nowhere near ready to be starting games in MLB, unless losing is the goal.

    The old group is intact? They're all on or should be on the IL.

    How is fast emergence to take place with the new group, when half of them are chronically on the IL?

    How does this tripe (this and the nonsense about being built for October) get on the front page?

    Booooo.

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    7 minutes ago, MABB1959 said:

    Maybe the scouting personnel needs to change?  How did they NOT see the Mahle injury and what gave them the idea he would be able to play this season.  I think an upgrade to the medical staff should be looked at as well.  

    All these things did change, when this front office took over. And therein lies the problem?

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    I hope they make better decisions this winter. We supposedly were in the running for Wheeler a couple years ago. We were supposedly in the running for Rodon last year. Things would have turned out very differently if we had closed those 2 deals. We settled for pitchers like Shoemaker/Happ/Bundy/Archer - We signed up Dobnak when we didn't need to - we've gone into the last 2 seasons adding the wrong bullpen guys - no pitching pipeline yet.

    Looks to me like we have a nice supply for '23 of #3-#5 starters - Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Paddock, Winder, Ober - this winter we need to go get a #1 and a #2. 

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    Twins Daily is certainly carrying the water for Twins ownership today. This and Nick’s article should solidify your press passes working next year at Spring Training. 

    We’ve seen 2 examples that caused Jim Pohlad to act and make a change in the FO. The total system failure in 2016, and Billy Smith spending on a top 10 MLB payroll missing the playoffs. Falvey and Levine bumped up the payroll in 2022 to $145 million. We’re on pace to finish below .500, with Target Field half empty all season. We will see if losing money sparks some urgency to make a change…

    If the Twins are really going to keep status quo, next year is going to be more of the same. Half filled Target Field and casual fans checking out of another season. 

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    Signing Correa was huge. He gets to decide if he'll be back or not. It won't be the end of the world if he leaves but he's a needed presence in the lineup and on the field.

    As GM/FO, you can't pin your team's hopes on rookies or mid-level free agents. Their success depends on several factors, some of which are controllable - pitching & hitting coaches, conditioning. The Twins have some things to think about with regards to those factors. 

    Athletes get injured. You can't predict that (although with Buxton, you can assume he'll be injured off and on) so you need a plan B at every position. The Twins have some OF depth but, as we have seen this season, not enough to sustain a team throughout a season. It's nice to have guys that can move around, like Arraez, Miranda and Gordon. All three are vital going forward.

    I'd also like to see the Twins use some $$ to get a legit SP1 and a power hitter. 

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    32 minutes ago, In My La Z boy said:

    I hope they make better decisions this winter. We supposedly were in the running for Wheeler a couple years ago. We were supposedly in the running for Rodon last year. Things would have turned out very differently if we had closed those 2 deals. We settled for pitchers like Shoemaker/Happ/Bundy/Archer - We signed up Dobnak when we didn't need to - we've gone into the last 2 seasons adding the wrong bullpen guys - no pitching pipeline yet.

    Looks to me like we have a nice supply for '23 of #3-#5 starters - Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Paddock, Winder, Ober - this winter we need to go get a #1 and a #2. 

    Agreed on the pitching!! (Varland another #4-#5 in his rookie year of ‘23) I think getting a #2 is $ realistic. Need another stud with Duran in bullpen as well! 

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    1 hour ago, Trov said:

    If anything, I think we need a new medical team or approach to help figure out why so many of our guys are having soft tissue injuries.  You cannot predict torn ligaments or broken bones normally.  Some may disagree about some of the TJ surgeries, but the fact we have almost a full MLB team on long term IL stints is crazy we even competed as long as we did.

    Agree 100%! Some injuries are just bad luck but there's something wrong when this many players and pitches are in the IL,

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    The FO should resign , they go into hiding when losing and take credit when winning  

    They haven't lived up to expectations and their promises are lacking , they can not win with this plan ... 

    DID ANYONE HEAR  LAST WEEKEND  WHAT FALVEY SAID IN AN INTERVIEW ? , I missed it 

    2019 was a fluke career year for players and we finally beat the Yankees at something  , 307 homers verses 306 homers but can't win games ...

      ace pitching and good bullpens will win games and be contenders in the playoffs ....

    Free agency is risky the FO says but so is trading for players at a cost to our pipeline  ....

    Have we been jinxed  , seems like it or the plan is not working  ...

    The plan  , the plan  , the plan  ...

    Smiles everyone ...

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    1 hour ago, MMMordabito said:

    "They’re hoping to have the likes of Simeon Woods Richardson, Jordan Balazovic, Ronny Henriquez, Blayne Enlow, and Cole Sands give them real starter innings. Everyone mentioned there is close ..."

     

    And there we have it, folks...the first use of the vaunted "pitching pipeline" meme for 2023!

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    1 hour ago, RakeCave said:

    You think the front office has done a fine job when they haven't even won a single playoff game?! And they have nothing to show for their vaunted pitching pipeline...

    Keeping them around will just doom us mediocrity for years to come.

    Terry Ryan won 6 playoff games in 18 seasons and he's treated like the greatest GM in the history of sports around these parts.

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    20 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

    The FO should resign , they go into hiding when losing and take credit when winning  

    They haven't lived up to expectations and their promises are lacking , they can not win with this plan ... 

    DID ANYONE HEAR  LAST WEEKEND  WHAT FALVEY SAID IN AN INTERVIEW ? , I missed it 

    2019 was a fluke career year for players and we finally beat the Yankees at something  , 307 homers verses 306 homers but can't win games ...

      ace pitching and good bullpens will win games and be contenders in the playoffs ....

    Free agency is risky the FO says but so is trading for players at a cost to our pipeline  ....

    Have we been jinxed  , seems like it or the plan is not working  ...

    The plan  , the plan  , the plan  ...

    Smiles everyone ...

    Is this actually Bert? If not, you nailed the impersonation, 

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    3 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

    exaggerate much?

    No. He unquestionably has a reputation for dragging the low budget Twins to prominence by being an innovator and finding market inefficiencies to make a winner out of nothing. When the reality is his teams won 6 playoff games in 18 seasons. He is held in very high regard despite never really accomplishing anything.

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    6 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

    No. He unquestionably has a reputation for dragging the low budget Twins to prominence by being an innovator and finding market inefficiencies to make a winner out of nothing. When the reality is his teams won 6 playoff games in 18 seasons. He is held in very high regard despite never really accomplishing anything.

    I think by the time he was let go you would find less than half of Twins fans wanted him retained.

    And in any case, the above is a long way from "greatest GM in the history of sports."

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    The FO has not shown the ability to make good decisions in any manner. They listened to Correa on getting Lopez and look at what we got,another Pagan.We started the season with a SP staff of broken down arms and a rookie SP as the #1. The whole organization needs to be revamped from top to bottom. If only a change here and there is made we are in for long season. Just remember next season goes back to the game we grew up with. This FO and manager I don't believe will be able to make the changes to play the game.

     

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    No one is going anywhere. Blame it all on injuries.

    I would feel better if the front office wasn't so BIG on saying they were going to be competitive in 2022. They did a big overpay signing, when no other free agents would come here.

    But something has to be done to keep players from going down, including in the minors.

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    1 hour ago, In My La Z boy said:

    I hope they make better decisions this winter. We supposedly were in the running for Wheeler a couple years ago. We were supposedly in the running for Rodon last year. Things would have turned out very differently if we had closed those 2 deals. We settled for pitchers like Shoemaker/Happ/Bundy/Archer - We signed up Dobnak when we didn't need to - we've gone into the last 2 seasons adding the wrong bullpen guys - no pitching pipeline yet.

    Looks to me like we have a nice supply for '23 of #3-#5 starters - Ryan, Gray, Mahle, Maeda, Paddock, Winder, Ober - this winter we need to go get a #1 and a #2. 

    Give me a few 1/2 SPs in your mind. Any in the league. Aces don't count (IE Verlander, DeGrom, etc).

    Because, by the metrics, Statcast data, stuff plus scouting, etc, Mahle and Gray are the very definition of #2s with #1 upside when going well. They are right in the conversation with names like Montas, Tyler Anderson, Chris Bassitt, Logan Gilbert, Triston McKenzie, etc.

    I'm trying to understand what you mean by your definition. 

    Quantity of IP? I'll agree that is an issue with them, but not quality.

    Rodon is really the only FA better than those two who is not expected to re-up with their current org. The rest are adding more #3s, as you say.

    FWIW, I'd like them to sign another (your definition) #3, such as Bassitt or Anderson...unless they can swing a trade for better.

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