Twins vs Guardians Preview: A Season-Defining Series

Starting tonight at 6:10 PM sharp, the Twins and Guardians will clash in an extended, unusual five-game series that will likely decide the division. Cleveland finds itself in an unexpected situation; a plethora of young talent—especially on the offensive side of the ball—have stepped in a significant way; Steven Kwan, Oscar González, and Andrés Giménez lead a unique contact-oriented offensive revolution, carrying a consistently excellent pitching staff to a healthy division lead.

The Twins' story is more nihilistic; after signing Carlos Correa and trading for Sonny Gray, the team has limped to a 72-70 record, a total that accurately reflects the kind of baseball they have played all season. There have been revelations—Jhoan Duran is a certified face-melter, Jose Miranda is a hitting machine, and Byron Buxton has stayed (mostly) healthy—but injuries and shocking inconsistency have halted the team’s ability to sustain excellent play for more than a few series at a time. Some players will return shortly, but will their impact be enough this late in the season?

The White Sox make this a fascinating three-horse race; Chicago has played equally un-inspiring ball, but a recent stretch of play—perhaps buoyed by manager Tony La Russa’s absence—has set them up for a shot at the AL Central title. José Abreu is up to his old tricks, and Dylan Cease has stepped up to become one of the better starters in the AL, but the rest of the team is a mixed bag, oscillating between meeting expectations and disappointing greatly. The White Sox play the lowly Tigers this weekend.

The series narrative will focus on the starters; Cleveland will call upon two unproven arms to help guide them to success, while the Twins have yet to announce their starters for either doubleheader game on Saturday. Betting against the Guardians’ ability to create pitching out of thin air is a fool's gambit, but the Twins succeeded in 2019 in a similar spot when they started Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe in a September double game day and walked away with a win in both matches.

Game 1 will be a matchup between Bailey Ober and Triston McKenzie. Ober is starting in the majors for the first time since June 1st; a nasty groin strain has quelled his shot at following a promising rookie season with a full campaign, but he could provide the sort of 5-6 innings stability the team has sorely missed in 2022. McKenzie, on the other hand, has enjoyed a breakout season, riding a lively fastball to a 3.05 ERA over 165 1/3 innings. It’s Cleveland; of course, they have great pitching.

McKenzie will give the Guardians the upper hand, but Ober's steady, habitual 5-6 inning promise could give the Twins the assurance they need to win.

Game 2 will be a battle between TBD and Shane Bieber. TBD possesses good stuff, but he has sometimes failed to reign in his command, leading to an inflated ERA and walk rate; hopefully, he can turn things around soon. Bieber—the 2020 AL Cy Young award winner—has been dominant as usual; a frightening shoulder injury has sapped a few ticks of velocity, but Bieber barely seems to care; his season ERA sits at 2.91. Expect an overwhelming dose of strikeouts in this game.

Bieber is always a tough go; the Twins will be fortunate to win this game, and if they do succeed, it will likely be thanks to a timely extra-base hit or two.

Game 3—the second match in a Saturday doubleheader—will feature TBD facing off against Konnor Pilkington. It’s a bold strategy for the Twins to start TBD in back-to-back games—on the same day, no less—but desperate times call for such measures (the editor would like to note that Josh Winder will start one of the games while Louie Varland will likely start the other). Pilkington is an intriguing lefty, yet another arm in Cleveland’s factory of stuff, an efficient machine producing a seemingly endless array of dominant starters. Pilkington owns a 4.30 ERA over 52 1/3 career innings in the majors, all coming in 2022.

Game three could tilt in the Twins' favor, as Pilkington offers a great chance for Minnesota to jump on an inexperienced arm. Expect a big day from Kyle Garlick.

Game 4 will see Joe Ryan start opposite Cody Morris. Fresh off a cruising yet controversial seven shutout inning start, Ryan will look to build off his excellent performance against the Royals in the most crucial start of his young career. Morris is like Pilkington; a young, talented arm with 9 2/3 innings under his wing working to establish himself in the majors.

This game will be a proper wild card, but Ryan's relative veteran status could give the Twins the edge.

Game 5 — a unique Monday finale — will see Sonny Gray attempt to best Cal Quantrill. Gray has pitched like his usual self in 2022; an efficient, crafty veteran capable of making excellent hitters look foolish as they stare at a sinker down the middle or swing at a curveball that dives when they least expect it. Quantrill is a mystery; a righty sinker/cutter specialist with meh peripherals but a commanding 3.51 season ERA. 

Game five will probably end as the most intense match of the series; both Gray and Quantrill are capable of pitching deep into the ballgame, so expect a a great nervous feel for this Monday matchup.

It’s baseball drama to ever refer to a series as “season-defining,” but the term fits here; the teams will not play each after this series, meaning that an inconclusive result in this series will place AL Central power into the hands of other teams as September winds down. The Twins must win at least three games for their playoff chances to remain firmly in the realm of realism.