The Twins Face a Deceivingly Complicated Decision at the Trade Deadline

I think this team can win a playoff game.  That is a very important step to me. Next year Lewis might  be able to replace Correa, but who knows. I would shore up this  team any way I could.  Cleveland and Chicago likely smell blood and might also make moves.  Imagine South Side Soto.

The 40 man will be overflowing after this year and tough decisions would have to be made. Why not make those decisions easier by dealing some pieces to help our pitching staff? The recent bullpen implosions have been painful to watch, and the pen is being stressed by rotation members who struggle to get through 4 innings. More should be expected from a division leading team. We have plenty of corners. We have middle IF types. We have some promising arms. We have some positionless bats. Can't fit them all next year. Canterino, Cavaco, Steer, Sabato...anyone should be available. We need a couple of beasts on the staff today. 

13 minutes ago, Nick Nelson said:

Again: no one is denying that they should (and will) get pitching help. The complicated question being addressed is how aggressive they should be and how much they should be willing to sacrifice to improve their chances this year.

As for Jeffers, he ranks second to Polanco in OPS at the past month at 868. Meanwhile Gary Sanchez is at 578 during that span and Caleb Hamilton has never played in the majors. Not to mention the extreme defensive drop-off. You are underrating the severity of this loss.

Especially with our lack of catching depth. 

Nick is correct. This IS a complex issue. 

I believe that step 1 is to assess the extent of the 40 man crunch next year. 

I'm not an expert, but the FO actually NEEDS to make trades that include multiple prospects to avoid losing some to Rule V. This step alone should be enough to shore up the bullpen.

Starting pitching and catcher improvements.... THAT will require sacrifice which may not be in the best interest of our success in 2023 and beyond. 

2 moves; get Bednar from Pittsburgh and Castillo from Cincinnati. Castillo will come at a cost but I believe he's locked up for 2 more years.

It’s clear we will acquire a reliever or two at the deadline for minimal cost.  The question is will we spend for a bigger acquisition.  Note that if we are spending a lot of prospect capital we will likely have several years of team control.  So I am not concerned if we do this. 

Since they traded Rogers, our greatest need is a complimentary closer to Duran. But our greatest move we need to take is to establish our long relief. We can pick up a closer, a frontline SP and a catcher but if we continue to depend the likes of Duffy, Pagan, Smith & Co. and over extend our rotation, our pitching will be a disaster much like it has been. We need to replace Duffy, Pagan, Smith & Co. with long relief (Winder, Smeltzer, Ober & maybe Cotton). Contrary to many thinking of over extending our SPs profiles or "their" mindset of over relying on short relief is not the answer.

Having the rotation pitch 5-6 innings, then have long relief pitch  3 innings, then handing the ball to closer or if need be complete the game. This we can by-pass our questionable RPs and leave them for mop up. Long relief will keep everyone fresh & strong ready to compete in the rest of the season & post season.

We have a great line up with addition of Correa, a very good rotation and an excellent rookie closer, we need to go for it and not punt. We have a redundancy in prospects that we can use  for trade bait.

I want the Twins to convert bat depth for controllable pitching.  No rentals, please.

And if someone wants ANY of our short-term players, even Correa, I am listening.  Not shopping, but listening to offers that help cement our team's future.

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

I mean the real point was that the pitching pipeline shouldn't be trusted to produce since it's failed to do so so far. But I could argue Duran, Jax, Winder, and Ober are all pipeline success stories. If you guys want to draw an arbitrary line of when the guy debuted to discount a success story in the conversation about "the pipeline" being able to produce in the future that's cool with me.

Sorry, I misinterpreted the point. I thought it was that the pipeline HAD started to fill in the major league roster, and I was just pointing out when the got here. I was just saying Jax and Ober were last year and Winder, Duran and Moran and possibly Ryan were this year. that is a large amount of pitchers added the the major league roster, and hopefully that can continue, it is looking less likely they could get that kind of results next year, but not out of the question.

5 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

I want the Twins to convert bat depth for controllable pitching.  No rentals, please.

And if someone wants ANY of our short-term players, even Correa, I am listening.  Not shopping, but listening to offers that help cement our team's future.

The problem with being sellers on somebody like Correa, means it has to be guaranteed major league players or guys a few years out, they can't take on anymore Strotman type players.

56 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think the Twins have the prospect capital to make many big deals so I think the likely outcome is a couple rental relief arms. I just think it's a seller's market and the other buyers will be more motivated while also having the ability to outbid the Twins in most deals.

Miranda and Kirilloff are a big part of the current offense, let alone the future, so trading them doesn't help the current team in the aggregate. I don't see any deal that would make sense to move them in.

I'd be willing to move Larnach, but it's hard to tell what his value is right now. But if he's enough to front a deal with Cincy I'd do it.

I'd trade Steer and Wallner in a heartbeat if they were going to bring back a Castillo type starter. They have a shot at being big league regulars, but I think they're more likely to be a utility and backup corner OF. The problem with them not being the kind of prospects that should be untouchable is that means they're also likely not the type of prospects that bring back frontline starters. But if they are I'd trade them yesterday for a starter.

Lewis would be untouchable to me as I expect Correa to leave after the season and Lewis is the SS for the foreseeable future (I think Lee moves to 3B, and Miller is still too far away). This isn't a huge deal as the other contenders also seem to be unwilling to trade their very top prospects (Yankees have notably refused to trade either of their young SS prospects to the As for any of their stars for the last year).

Martin has taken a fall this year and he's likely not enough to front a package for a Castillo type. But if he is I'd move him (makes me sad to type that as he was my favorite prospect coming out in that draft and I was super excited to get him in the Berrios trade).

The arms have mostly been injured again or are stalling. That's really been the problem with this season. I think the Twins planned to compete this year by having the arms on the 40-man (plus a couple not yet on it) produce far more than they have. I think they thought those guys would be taking jobs, or at least really nice injury fill-ins, by now. Duran and Jax have done nice out of the pen, but Winder is the only starter who's filled the role I think they expected Balazovic and Canterino at a minimum to also be ready to fill by now.

So the Twins biggest trade chips at this point are the super young guys in the low minors who are the only ones they could sell a team on their superstar potential. I don't want to make a Tatis Jr for James Shields trade (not that we have a Tatis Jr in the system).

I don't write this to argue with the above, but 2 things struck me instantly.  One is Lewis.  A player that has had 2 career threatening knee injuries by the age of 23 is untouchable?  I hope you are right, but nothing in his life so far has suggested he will turn into the player we hoped, because he can't stay on the field.  Two, if everything else you said is true what does it say about the long term plan of this FO?  This is the 6th year of their plan, and you just outlined a cluster @#$% of a situation that doesn't seem to have an immediate solution.  Not saying you are wrong, necessarily, but if you are right, where do we go from here?  

I am an advocate of being a buyer, to the point of go big or go home.  Because the teams that go big will take the pieces we need and leave us where we are right now, which from what I read above, isn't where we would want to be.  It truly is a debate, and one that is necessary at the point this team is at right now.  I am glad we are having it.  

Okay, I'll imagine the Twins won the World Series in 2019 with Noah Syndergaard, but lost Byron Buxton in the process. I'll take that. every. single. time.

Mediocre teams that got hot/lucky at the right time can happen, but the likelihood it happens is low and the commitment to that low-risk philosophy leads to potentially decades of mediocrity like the Twins have experienced. Just good enough to win a weak division and be forgotten as a playoff team.

That said, it may be a more viable philosophy with the ever expanding playoffs.

i agree that this is a complicated decision but strongly disagree with the premise that we don't have the prospect capital to get deals done.  We can get a top end starter like Montas or Castillo - we just need to be willing to trade a Larnch or Miranda type PLUS (1) Ober or (2) a Steer, Wallner, and a lower level but high upside guy like CES, Julien, Sabato, Varland, etc. As for me, I would like to keep Miranda but wouldn't be opposed to moving him as the headliner package for a great return (Montas or Castillo plus a solid reliever with some remaining control). We can do the deals, we just have to be willing to give up quality. 

I am very open to dealing Larnach as a headline piece in a trade for starting pitching. Kirilloff is our LF for the foreseeable future because Arraez is the 1B, followed by Miranda. We all need to accept that reality. So unless we are going to trade Kepler - who won't get us much of a return - there simply is no room at the inn for Larnach to play every day. Same for Steer and Wallner. They play positions - corner OF, 2B and 3B - where we have players in place who are younger, cost controlled, and aren't going anywhere. You trade from surplus for need. Our need? Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Our surplus? Corner OF bats and guys who have good to high ceilings and can play 2B or 3B. That's who you trade. 

Also, let's not forget why you develop quality depth in the minors. The first and most obvious reason is to feed the MLB club, but it is not the only reason. The other reason is so you have players to trade for established MLB players on other teams in those years were you believe you have a chance to complete. I think this is one of those years and am open to using our prospect capital to improve the big club, particularly with respect to players who have more than just the rest of 2022 to offer. We all need to be willing to "let go" of some of the prospects we know and love so that we can trade them for established players who can help us right now. I personally think any Twins prospect recently graduating to MLB or still in the minors should be available except for Lewis, Ryan, Kirilloff, Duran and WInder, except that I would only move Miranda for an established MLB starter with at least 1.5 years of control and a chance of re-signing with the team. Other than that, everyone else should be available, That's the attitude I think the FO should have going into this trade deadline. I think if they have that attitude, there is no reason that this team can't put competitive trade packages together to try to get the three things that would really help (1) a quality starting pitcher like Montas or Castillo, (2) at least one quality rental reliever like Robertson, Bard, Okert, or Lopez (I would also use acquisition #1 to kick Chris Archer into the bullpen to add a second quality bullpen piece), and (3) a short-term rental bat you might have a chance of re-signing like Josh Bell. That's what we need to do and I don't think we need to "deplete the farm" to get it done. 

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

Again: no one is denying that they should (and will) get pitching help. The complicated question being addressed is how aggressive they should be and how much they should be willing to sacrifice to improve their chances this year.

As for Jeffers, he ranks second to Polanco in OPS at the past month at 868. Meanwhile Gary Sanchez is at 578 during that span and Caleb Hamilton has never played in the majors. Not to mention the extreme defensive drop-off. You are underrating the severity of this loss.

The acceptable, absolute minimum is probably 2 relief arms that slot above Jax and below Duran. If some want to argue a starter is a must as well I'm not going to fight it. I think we'll get one decent reliever and one reclamation project that'll be talked up. I'll be really surprised if any type of impact starter is acquired. 

Jeffers had a 4 game stretch with 7 hits in mid June and a nice series against TX where he put up 5 hits in 2 games. Between that it was more of what we watched all season. Basically, without those 2 Rangers games, he's still a guy struggling to stay above the Mendoza line with an OPS in danger of dipping below .600. Word seems to be out about his inability to control runners as well. Would I rather have him than Hamilton? Yes, but Jeffers is already at or near the bottom third of an awful cohort when it comes to production, so I think it's fair to question just how severe the loss is. 

There have been mentions of trading Correa.  Keep in mind that he has a partial no-trade clause so that will limit where he could go.

Going all-in at this deadline seems short sighted given this team is not currently constructed to win in the playoffs this year.  If they can make some improvements without sacrificing the future, great.

But that is indeed the trick, now isn't it...?

7 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The injuries are obviously concerning, but he's still very young and showed he's ready to compete at the major league level now. I wouldn't trade someone with superstar upside and ready for the majors who's not even close to arbitration eligible.

Immediate solution is Buxton, Kepler, Polanco, Paddack under contract for multiple more seasons. Miranda, Kirilloff, Lewis, Jeffers, Arraez, Celestino, Gordon, Ryan, Ober, Winder, Duran, Jax, Moran, Alcala, Larnach under team control for multiple seasons of pre-arb and arb. Maeda and Gray under contract for next year. That's 21 players under contract for next year, and, in 19 cases, more seasons than just 2023 for cheap. That's a pretty enviable situation to be in with probably 60M to spend on the market next year. If they can't get 5 guys to fill out that roster and make it a contender for 60M they should contract the team.

The lower minors look to have a number of intriguing pieces. Wallner and Steer look like major leaguers. Brooks Lee has a shot to debut in the next 2 years. Prielipp could be a top of the rotation guy relatively soon. The system is not dead, but they've graduated most of this wave of prospects. They now have to fill in around them with veteran guys through trades (which I'd argue is difficult due to the wave mostly being key parts of the current team) and FA signings. The future is bright in MN, but the pieces aren't all there. They need to supplement this team without blowing up the very strong core.

Sounds good.  Except that this core is 5 games under .500 since May 24th, and hasn't shown the wherewithal to turn it around without help.  Do we wait for the off season to get that help, or do we get it in the next two weeks?  And, if we do it right, the next two weeks could go a long way for getting the help for next year as well.  

As of today, we are looking at a window that is part way open, but could open further or close further in the next two weeks.  The 5 guys you talk about were Correa, Orshela, Bundy, Smith, Pagan, etc.  And we are where we are.  I simply don't have the confidence that next year will bring 5 better guys than this year, so I would like to get them now while we have the chips to bargain with.  

I truly get where you are coming from, I am just more of a gambler, I guess, and would like to take the risk while the window is part way open.  Because there is no guarantee either way; I would just rather go down swinging than looking.   Thanks for the exchange.  It is nice to know the fans are passionate.  

6 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

i agree that this is a complicated decision but strongly disagree with the premise that we don't have the prospect capital to get deals done.  We can get a top end starter like Montas or Castillo - we just need to be willing to trade a Larnch or Miranda type PLUS (1) Ober or (2) a Steer, Wallner, and a lower level but high upside guy like CES, Julien, Sabato, Varland, etc. As for me, I would like to keep Miranda but wouldn't be opposed to moving him as the headliner package for a great return (Montas or Castillo plus a solid reliever with some remaining control). We can do the deals, we just have to be willing to give up quality. 

I am very open to dealing Larnach as a headline piece in a trade for starting pitching. Kirilloff is our LF for the foreseeable future because Arraez is the 1B, followed by Miranda. We all need to accept that reality. So unless we are going to trade Kepler - who won't get us much of a return - there simply is no room at the inn for Larnach to play every day. Same for Steer and Wallner. They play positions - corner OF, 2B and 3B - where we have players in place who are younger, cost controlled, and aren't going anywhere. You trade from surplus for need. Our need? Pitching, pitching and more pitching. Our surplus? Corner OF bats and guys who have good to high ceilings and can play 2B or 3B. That's who you trade. 

Also, let's not forget why you develop quality depth in the minors. The first and most obvious reason is to feed the MLB club, but it is not the only reason. The other reason is so you have players to trade for established MLB players on other teams in those years were you believe you have a chance to complete. I think this is one of those years and am open to using our prospect capital to improve the big club, particularly with respect to players who have more than just the rest of 2022 to offer. We all need to be willing to "let go" of some of the prospects we know and love so that we can trade them for established players who can help us right now. I personally think any Twins prospect recently graduating to MLB or still in the minors should be available except for Lewis, Ryan, Kirilloff, Duran and WInder, except that I would only move Miranda for an established MLB starter with at least 1.5 years of control and a chance of re-signing with the team. Other than that, everyone else should be available, That's the attitude I think the FO should have going into this trade deadline. I think if they have that attitude, there is no reason that this team can't put competitive trade packages together to try to get the three things that would really help (1) a quality starting pitcher like Montas or Castillo, (2) at least one quality rental reliever like Robertson, Bard, Okert, or Lopez (I would also use acquisition #1 to kick Chris Archer into the bullpen to add a second quality bullpen piece), and (3) a short-term rental bat you might have a chance of re-signing like Josh Bell. That's what we need to do and I don't think we need to "deplete the farm" to get it done. 

Well said.    

31 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If acquiring a guy with 6 years of control isn't pipeline, we have a different meaning, but I get that. 

I agree. The early years of the respected Cleveland pipeline included several trade acquisitions like Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer.

6 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

I agree. The early years of the respected Cleveland pipeline included several trade acquisitions like Kluber, Carrasco and Bauer.

it is really just semantics, the FO should get all the credit in the world for getting Ryan (very shrewd trade one could argue having to give Strotman a 40 man spot diminishes it but still) , but does somebody that pitched all of 9 innings in the Twins minor league constitute being part of a minor league pipeline?

Compared to the guys you mentioned who all ended up pitching over 100 minor league innings for Cleveland.