The Twins Face a Deceivingly Complicated Decision at the Trade Deadline

MLB Trade Values two biggest changes were the increases to Steer and E Rod who are now at 14 and 15 respectfully for surplus value. 

I won't trade E Rod, his kind of damage in fort Myers is rare with you usually able to add 100 points to a hitters ops given the tough hitting conditions.

I would be open to Steer, he is a bit of a pop up prospect and doesn't seem like he could profile at SS.

Weirdly I think the biggest unknown is how Acala and Maeda are looking in recovery as if healthy they would be the top RP any team could add, Bednar not being traded. 

We have to give to get - but we can't afford a rental and sacrifice the next 4-6 years.   Austin Martin would have been a great chip to flip, but has regressed.   Steer and maybe now Wallner has pushed into that category.    Larnach or Kiriloff may need to be part of the package, and with Larnach now hurt his value is down.   I am hoping Kiriloff stays.    Kepler may draw some interest.

There are multiple reasons why a team in our position would make a push during the deadline, not all of them being to get to the WS.  One is to energize your fan base and keep them coming in during the playoff push.  Or maybe to do a preemptive strike to keep teams like Cleveland and Chicago from getting the players necessary to make a push against you, this year and beyond.  Or maybe to keep players like Correa, or possible future free agents, thinking this is a place that wants to win and makes them want to stay/come here.  And, of course, to win this year when you have the chance.  In our case, we may want to consider all of the above and make a couple of bigger deals than this FO would normally consider.  It just might affect much more than the next 68 games.  

Just like you have to spend money to make money, sometimes you have to invest capital (prospects/players) to gain capital; capital, that in the long run, makes you a stronger competitor.  I guess we are going to find out if the time is now, or if this is just another never ending 5 year plan.  

I would say that if you are in a position to get in to the playoffs you need to make every reasonable attempt to get there.  Obviously there is no guarantee the team makes the playoffs this year even via a trade.  But don't you owe it to the fans and the players to try?  Everyone rants and raves about 2023 and beyond.  Is that a guarantee?  Of course not.  That will depend on part what happens this trade deadline and next off season.  Yes this team has plenty of holes.  But do you just give up?  Do you shrug your shoulders and say let's leave it and wait?  They are at a mini crossroads.  I don't think they were planning on contending at this point in the season.  And what about Correa?  He most certainly doesn't appear to be part of the Twins future.  It's time to trade him for a prospect (s) if you can find any takers.

55 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

If you are in contention... You buy.

If you are not in contention...You sell.

Any argument that the Twins shouldn't buy because the team isn't strong enough or anything of the like will not stand up to the fact that the Twins are in first place... right now. 

 

 

To me, this is extremely flawed logic.  I don't believe the Twins front office thought they would compete for a divisional title this year and they have a plan in place to compete next year or the year after.  In my eyes, you stick to the plan you have in place.  You do NOT sacrifice the future on a year when your division stinks and you happen to be in first place at the AS break.  Stick to the plan.

I would actually advocate the other way.  I feel the Twins should think about being sellers.  We don't have a of pieces that are saleable, except Correa.  If some team feels they are a SS away from a championship and want to mortgage their future for CC, I say go for it! Reaps the rewards!  Sell off pieces that won't be back anyway or won't be there we we are ready to compete, i.e. Archer, Bundy, Sanchez, Smith, possibly Urshela, etc.  You absolutely hold onto Arraez, Larnach, Kiriloff, Ryan, and all of the young players you have developed.

I know my opinion will not be popular.  But I don't just want to make the playoffs one year, get obliterated but the Yankees or Astros in the first round and then start all over.  Have a plan, build the system and execute the plan!

25 minutes ago, 071063 said:

To me, this is extremely flawed logic.  I don't believe the Twins front office thought they would compete for a divisional title this year and they have a plan in place to compete next year or the year after.  In my eyes, you stick to the plan you have in place.  You do NOT sacrifice the future on a year when your division stinks and you happen to be in first place at the AS break.  Stick to the plan.

I would actually advocate the other way.  I feel the Twins should think about being sellers.  We don't have a of pieces that are saleable, except Correa.  If some team feels they are a SS away from a championship and want to mortgage their future for CC, I say go for it! Reaps the rewards!  Sell off pieces that won't be back anyway or won't be there we we are ready to compete, i.e. Archer, Bundy, Sanchez, Smith, possibly Urshela, etc.  You absolutely hold onto Arraez, Larnach, Kiriloff, Ryan, and all of the young players you have developed.

I know my opinion will not be popular.  But I don't just want to make the playoffs one year, get obliterated but the Yankees or Astros in the first round and then start all over.  Have a plan, build the system and execute the plan!

Couldn't agree with you more. Keep the developing young players and only consider trading the players you named in your response, but not just so we can say we made a trade. Don't sell the farm for an extra load of corn.

41 minutes ago, 071063 said:

To me, this is extremely flawed logic.  I don't believe the Twins front office thought they would compete for a divisional title this year and they have a plan in place to compete next year or the year after.  In my eyes, you stick to the plan you have in place.  You do NOT sacrifice the future on a year when your division stinks and you happen to be in first place at the AS break.  Stick to the plan.

I would actually advocate the other way.  I feel the Twins should think about being sellers.  We don't have a of pieces that are saleable, except Correa.  If some team feels they are a SS away from a championship and want to mortgage their future for CC, I say go for it! Reaps the rewards!  Sell off pieces that won't be back anyway or won't be there we we are ready to compete, i.e. Archer, Bundy, Sanchez, Smith, possibly Urshela, etc.  You absolutely hold onto Arraez, Larnach, Kiriloff, Ryan, and all of the young players you have developed.

I know my opinion will not be popular.  But I don't just want to make the playoffs one year, get obliterated but the Yankees or Astros in the first round and then start all over.  Have a plan, build the system and execute the plan!

IMO, this is a ridiculous take. The Twins traded a first round pick for a starting pitcher and spent 35 million dollars on basically a one year deal and didn't think they compete this year?

Being buyers doesn't mean trading away all your top prospects it means using fill holes with prospects. That is part of the FO job, figuring out how to deal with the future 40 man. Could the Twins be both, sure, but at the end of the deadline the Twins better have improved this years team somehow, if that means moving Ursheal, Bundy, Sano or others and to give new guys more playing time, that is great.

I'm enjoying this regular season. It's preferable to being terrible for six months. They have players who take great at-bats that are fun to watch. 

That being said, they are clearly in the 2nd tier of the AL with TB/BOS/TOR/SEA. The Yankees and Astros are the top tier. The Yankees in particular have outscored every MLB team and have given up the fewest runs in the AL. No matter what the Twins do at the deadline, their playoff chances hinge on whether or not the Yankees somehow choke in October. And even if they do, Houston has to choke as well. 

But I think the 'Twins should be sellers' thing is non-sense. They have a maturing crop in  Kirilloff/Miranda/Ryan/Duran/Larnach/Jeffers/Jax/Celestino developing this year to pair with Buxton/Arraez/Polanco in 2023-25. There's a value in gaining the experience they're all getting this year, They're a winning team full of young players trying to maintain a division lead. This is better for development than dozens of games that essentially amount to garbage time experience. 

I would be fine with them relatively standing pat with a Terry Ryan-esque deadline, just getting a couple modest, helpful pickups for the bullpen at the deadline and not paying a big price for them. I don't want them being aggressive buyers or sellers. I'm fine with an 85-90 win 2022, theoretically prepping them to launch into the top tier in 2023-27. And I think that's the likeliest scenario for how the front office sees it too. 

Certainly hope the Twins don't trade away the farm for a chance at success this October.  The needs are just too great.  I do hope they do at least one smart trade for a younger, proven reliever with at least two years of control.  Someone that can be a solid late inning guy this year and the next couple when they should have a better chance to contend.

That combined with some good health to starters and a couple relievers returning from the IL and who knows what happens.  As for catcher, would support a similar move for a quality younger player who would be a 2023 and beyond backup who could battle for a starting job.  

45 minutes ago, 071063 said:

To me, this is extremely flawed logic.  I don't believe the Twins front office thought they would compete for a divisional title this year and they have a plan in place to compete next year or the year after.  In my eyes, you stick to the plan you have in place.  You do NOT sacrifice the future on a year when your division stinks and you happen to be in first place at the AS break.  Stick to the plan.

I would actually advocate the other way.  I feel the Twins should think about being sellers.  We don't have a of pieces that are saleable, except Correa.  If some team feels they are a SS away from a championship and want to mortgage their future for CC, I say go for it! Reaps the rewards!  Sell off pieces that won't be back anyway or won't be there we we are ready to compete, i.e. Archer, Bundy, Sanchez, Smith, possibly Urshela, etc.  You absolutely hold onto Arraez, Larnach, Kiriloff, Ryan, and all of the young players you have developed.

I know my opinion will not be popular.  But I don't just want to make the playoffs one year, get obliterated but the Yankees or Astros in the first round and then start all over.  Have a plan, build the system and execute the plan!

I agree.  Don’t bet the farm.  I also want a long run of winning seasons.  Add a rent-a-player Starter.   That moves one of the current starters to the pen.   Add Maeda, Dobnak and/or  Alcala to the bullpen AND that is improved.    Absolutely, the Twins should not trade Steer.   It’s equally obvious that they shouldn’t trade Correa, who provides the leadership and performance to lead a successful playoff run this year. 

I would be willing to add the following types of players--those on expiring contracts or those that have at least one more year of control.  In the case of expiring contracts, like Bard, Robertson, the cost would not be extreme and they would definitely help this year as our starters are mostly 5 inning type guys.  As much as I like Bednar, I personally would not trade top prospects for a relief pitcher as I don't think the value is there.  For an ace starting pitcher, I would trade assets like Steer, CES, Larnach and others if he have another year of control as it would benefit this year as well as next.  Montas (if healthy) and Castillo fit that scenario. I don't think either Cincy or Oakland would be interested in any established players like Kepler as they would be looking for young guys to build for a future 2-4 years out.  As for catching, Contreras is on an expiring contract and would be a huge improvement, but I am not sure what it would take.  I would explore it however.  So, if a major trade helps both this year and next, do it.  For rentals, if the price is right, do it.  

1 hour ago, 071063 said:

To me, this is extremely flawed logic.  I don't believe the Twins front office thought they would compete for a divisional title this year and they have a plan in place to compete next year or the year after.  In my eyes, you stick to the plan you have in place.  You do NOT sacrifice the future on a year when your division stinks and you happen to be in first place at the AS break.  Stick to the plan.

I would actually advocate the other way.  I feel the Twins should think about being sellers.  We don't have a of pieces that are saleable, except Correa.  If some team feels they are a SS away from a championship and want to mortgage their future for CC, I say go for it! Reaps the rewards!  Sell off pieces that won't be back anyway or won't be there we we are ready to compete, i.e. Archer, Bundy, Sanchez, Smith, possibly Urshela, etc.  You absolutely hold onto Arraez, Larnach, Kiriloff, Ryan, and all of the young players you have developed.

I know my opinion will not be popular.  But I don't just want to make the playoffs one year, get obliterated but the Yankees or Astros in the first round and then start all over.  Have a plan, build the system and execute the plan!

I get your point, but it sounds a lot like the never ending 5 year plan to me.  The one where year 5 never comes.  

27 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

IMO, this is a ridiculous take. The Twins traded a first round pick for a starting pitcher and spent 35 million dollars on basically a one year deal and didn't think they compete this year?

Being buyers doesn't mean trading away all your top prospects it means using fill holes with prospects. That is part of the FO job, figuring out how to deal with the future 40 man. Could the Twins be both, sure, but at the end of the deadline the Twins better have improved this years team somehow, if that means moving Ursheal, Bundy, Sano or others and to give new guys more playing time, that is great.

But to fill all or even a lot of the holes the Twins currently have means multiple trades and multiple prospects exiting.  We are not a player or 2 away from an extended playoff run.  I'm not convinced we are a player or 2 away from winning the Central!  Are you satisfied making the playoffs and then being eliminated immediately?  I am not.  I want to build towards an extended playoff run that finally nets us a series win and a realistic chance at a World Series!

Oh and eighteen pushes back against the notion that the playoff outcomes are random chance events.

That said, getting there is the first step of many, so yeah, agree with others here, Twins should not/will not be passive. Question is how much future projection are they willing to sacrifice for immediate gain in 2022? And how do potential sellers view the Twins' prospect potential?  It would be great to see other teams boards rating Twins Milb ratings.  How do their ratings match up with their projected future needs/wants? 

If the stars align in some unforeseen way maybe we make the move for Castillo or Montas. The liklier outcome would seem to be lesser BP depth, but it wouldnt be a shock to see them make a serious run at one of the big boy SP's, and drop existing rotation guys into BP.

There's lots of different ways this can play out, and that is what makes this deadline so interesting. I hope the trades will start sooner than later.

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

Don't sell the farm for an extra load of corn.

Love this image, never heard it B4, thanks Dasterdly Dave, I have a new toy to throw around now!

31 minutes ago, 071063 said:

But to fill all or even a lot of the holes the Twins currently have means multiple trades and multiple prospects exiting.  We are not a player or 2 away from an extended playoff run.  I'm not convinced we are a player or 2 away from winning the Central!  Are you satisfied making the playoffs and then being eliminated immediately?  I am not.  I want to build towards an extended playoff run that finally nets us a series win and a realistic chance at a World Series!

So you want the first place Twins to punt on this year for the hope of the future? Seems very similiar to what people said in 19 and 20, and then 21 happened.

If you are so convinced this team can't compete do you hold the FO accountable for trading a former first round pick away and spending 35 million on Correa? Or if you are so convinced then Sonny Gray has to go right, why spend the money on him when you could get more prospects for him than just about anybody else on this team?

Yes, I am way more satisfied helping this team (without trading all the prospects) and being in the playoffs then the hope they can make it in the future. Who is to stay Gray, Archer, Ryan, Winder and others can't hold down a team with limited innings and a have better relief pitchers including a few on the team now shut down the another team and have players like Buxton, Correa, Polanco, Arraez, AK score enough runs to win? If you and others believe that is not possible, how can it be possible next year, they aren't bringing in multiple aces next year, it will be the same exact starters next year, Gray, Ryan, Winder, Ober, etc.. it isn't like the Twins have the next Cole, Verlander, Bierber, fried, Mikolas pitching in AA or AAA or Correa is even coming back.

You don't stand pat or piss away a year that after 94 games you are in first place on hope and prayers, unless of course your goal is piss off the fans or put your job in jeopardy, there is no guarantee that anybody on this team will be better next year then they are right now or healthier. (I sure hope all the young guys, which most aren't really all that young get better, but if I am putting money down on the Twins winning the division this year or next, I am going with this year)

Quote

Atlanta's 2021 exemplifies how a more conservative, low-wattage approach to addressing various needs can work. 

The Twins have been doing this approach since the franchise started. It does NOT work. Just because it did for a team that was already loaded with talent that happened to be hurt, does not mean it's the right approach for this team!

2 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Technically so was Moran. Neither was a vital part of anything, though.

Jax started 14 games an pitched 82 innings (only 11. 1/3 less than Ober, 55 1/3 more than Ryan and Moran pitched 8 ) so one could say Ryan and Moran was this year and Jax was last year, but not sure it really changes the overall point.

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think the Twins have the prospect capital to make many big deals so I think the likely outcome is a couple rental relief arms. I just think it's a seller's market and the other buyers will be more motivated while also having the ability to outbid the Twins in most deals.

Miranda and Kirilloff are a big part of the current offense, let alone the future, so trading them doesn't help the current team in the aggregate. I don't see any deal that would make sense to move them in.

I'd be willing to move Larnach, but it's hard to tell what his value is right now. But if he's enough to front a deal with Cincy I'd do it.

I'd trade Steer and Wallner in a heartbeat if they were going to bring back a Castillo type starter. They have a shot at being big league regulars, but I think they're more likely to be a utility and backup corner OF. The problem with them not being the kind of prospects that should be untouchable is that means they're also likely not the type of prospects that bring back frontline starters. But if they are I'd trade them yesterday for a starter.

Lewis would be untouchable to me as I expect Correa to leave after the season and Lewis is the SS for the foreseeable future (I think Lee moves to 3B, and Miller is still too far away). This isn't a huge deal as the other contenders also seem to be unwilling to trade their very top prospects (Yankees have notably refused to trade either of their young SS prospects to the As for any of their stars for the last year).

Martin has taken a fall this year and he's likely not enough to front a package for a Castillo type. But if he is I'd move him (makes me sad to type that as he was my favorite prospect coming out in that draft and I was super excited to get him in the Berrios trade).

The arms have mostly been injured again or are stalling. That's really been the problem with this season. I think the Twins planned to compete this year by having the arms on the 40-man (plus a couple not yet on it) produce far more than they have. I think they thought those guys would be taking jobs, or at least really nice injury fill-ins, by now. Duran and Jax have done nice out of the pen, but Winder is the only starter who's filled the role I think they expected Balazovic and Canterino at a minimum to also be ready to fill by now.

So the Twins biggest trade chips at this point are the super young guys in the low minors who are the only ones they could sell a team on their superstar potential. I don't want to make a Tatis Jr for James Shields trade (not that we have a Tatis Jr in the system).

This IMO is the be best, most logical, spot on Message I have seen!