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  • Offseason Status Update: Starting with a Clean Slate


    Nick Nelson

    The Twins parted ways with free agents, cleared space on the 40-man roster, and set the stage for an offseason primed with ample flexibility and a wide range of possibilities. 

    Here's where things stand as we get started.

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    Eight Twins Players Become Free Agents

    The end of the World Series triggered the official commencement of the offseason, meaning that the following players automatically entered the free agent market:

    Aside from Fulmer, a solid deadline pickup for the bullpen, and Sánchez, who ended up being the team's primary catcher, these are all random midseason veteran pickups who played roles for the team out of sheer desperation. No big losses, although Fulmer will be an interesting target to pursue.

    Elsewhere, Carlos Correa opted out of his contract as expected. He'll hit free agency once again in search of a monster deal eclipsing $300 million. I wrote about what it will take to re-sign him as part of a three-part "Future of Shortstop" chapter of the Offseason Handbook. Anyone with a Twins Daily account can download that chapter for free.

    Finally, there were three players whose team options the club elected to decline, all as expected:

    Bundy and Archer were underwhelming bargain-bin free agent signings for the back of the rotation. Sanó's legacy with the Twins is, of course, much more lengthy and complicated. Probably worthy of a deeper examination in time. But for now, what matters for now is the way it ended: with the Twins paying $2.75 million to be done with him.

    Twins Pick Up Sonny Gray's Option

    There was one team option that the Twins were more than happy to pick up: Gray will be back next year at a $12.7 million salary. This was a no-brainer and a big part of the reason Minnesota was willing to give up Chase Petty for the veteran right-hander. 

    Gray currently projects as the standalone #1 starter on the 2023 staff. Improving upon that situation should be a top priority for the front office this winter. Will they make an offseason addition who surpasses the Sonny Gray Threshold

    We explored free agents and trade targets who could provide a legitimate top-of-rotation upgrade in the Starting Pitchers chapter of the Offseason Handbook, available to Caretakers.

    40-Man Roster Shuffling Clears Room

    In addition to letting several players loose into free agency, the Twins also cleared up some 40-man roster room through waivers and outrights. Here's a quick rundown to catch you up:

    All of these many removals from the 40-man were offset by a litany of players being removed from the injured list at year's end, so the Twins end up with 37 players currently rostered as illustrated in the grid below. Highlighted in red are eight clear candidates for removal, via non-tender or waiving, so the Twins will have no trouble finding room for new additions.

    40manroster111022.JPG

    The deadline to make contract tender decisions on arbitration-eligible players falls on November 18th – next Thursday. On that date we'll learn whether we can lock in or remove a few of those red-shaded names above, including Gio Urshela, Kyle Garlick, Emilio Pagan and Cody Stashak

    Internal Promotions Impact MLB Coaching Staff

    As a result of a series of internal personnel shifts announced by the team this past week, a new member has been added to the major-league coaching staff for 2023: Derek Shohon, who served as the hitting coach for Class-AA Wichita last year – overseeing the breakouts of prospects Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien, among others – will join the Twins as an assistant hitting coach alongside incumbents David Popkins and Rudy Hernandez.

    Some other moves of note:

    • Drew MacPhail, son of former Twins GM Andy MacPhail, takes over as farm director. Alex Hassan, previously in that role, is now vice president of hitting development and procurement.
    • Former run creation coordinator Frankie Padulo transitions into the assistant director of player development role formerly held by MacPhail.
    • Brian Maloney was promoted to director of minor league and high performance operations, and Amanda Daley was promoted to director of player education.

    Roster and Payroll Projection: v1

    Here's an overview of where the projected roster and payroll currently stand, under the assumption that Urshela and Garlick are tendered, and Pagan is not. (Far from guaranteed on any count.)

    roster111022.JPG

    The biggest existential priorities, as you can see, are finding a starting shortstop (and his backup), filling the catcher vacancy, and adding impact arms. They've got nearly $50 million to spend merely to get back to the 2022 payroll level, so needless to say there's a world of possibilities ahead.

    As a reminder, you can explore options at these key positions of need by downloading available chapters of the Offseason Handbook, and you can use our roster-building tool to forge your own Twins blueprint.

     

     

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    Question, Nick.  Shouldn’t the$4.5M spent on buy-outs be included innext year’s budget?  Do you know how the Twins handle this?

    As for players leaving, will be shocked if they move on from Urshela.  Seems that so many of you assume they will, yet I thought he was one of their best players.

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    I hope the Correa situation is cleared up early on. Him onboard completely changes pretty much everything. Him not means there is a lot the FO could do. Boras Corp. usually holds out till late January early Feb to have his premium free agents sign. I'd hate to see the Twins wait that long...I'd call that the worst-case scenario. Just guessing with Correa onboard a trade or two and some low-end signings for the BP and backup catcher. Not much change to the 40 man. With a lot of talk about health...I really hope that isn't how it goes.

    To pick apart the red highlighted guys on the roster.. My opinion is DFA Contreas, Garlic and Stashak. To cheat and use previous players Megill is similar to Pressly when they got him from the Red Sox. Enlow has four quality pitches and is only just building up to starter innings. Garlic is an AAAA player. The splits are brutal. Stashak hasn't been healthy enough to get a roster spot.

    A playoff team that is dangerous and can win any series has a good player a SS. The Phillies just made it to the series with 5-6 DH's. But lost to the team that was better built and has a quality SS. 

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    2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

    It seems most clubs are reducing their 40-man roster to the low 30s to make room to protect minor leaguers from Rule V and sign free agents. 

     

    No Rule 5 in the couple seasons probably has something to do with it

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    I want to know what a Run Creation Coordinator does. Does he teach the players not to overrun second when there's already a player standing there? Hmm. Fail. Or is he a like video game player? You know, overseeing the players' Madden tournament in the club house, making sure nobody tries to claim a two-point conversion when they actually kicked the PAT. Wait a minute... I got it. He leads the team prayer meetings. That's why they call him "The Creator"!

    Dominus Vobiscum.

     

     

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    1 hour ago, roger said:

    Question, Nick.  Shouldn’t the$4.5M spent on buy-outs be included innext year’s budget?  Do you know how the Twins handle this?

    As for players leaving, will be shocked if they move on from Urshela.  Seems that so many of you assume they will, yet I thought he was one of their best players.

    Me too.  Wouldnt mind seeing him back.

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    1 hour ago, roger said:

    Question, Nick.  Shouldn’t the$4.5M spent on buy-outs be included innext year’s budget?  Do you know how the Twins handle this?

    As for players leaving, will be shocked if they move on from Urshela.  Seems that so many of you assume they will, yet I thought he was one of their best players.

    Roger, it's my understanding that those buyouts are part of 2022 business, so that $4.5M actually goes toward last season and not next.

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    2 hours ago, weitz41 said:

    I hope the Correa situation is cleared up early on. Him onboard completely changes pretty much everything. Him not means there is a lot the FO could do. Boras Corp. usually holds out till late January early Feb to have his premium free agents sign. I'd hate to see the Twins wait that long...I'd call that the worst-case scenario. Just guessing with Correa onboard a trade or two and some low-end signings for the BP and backup catcher. Not much change to the 40 man. With a lot of talk about health...I really hope that isn't how it goes.

    To pick apart the red highlighted guys on the roster.. My opinion is DFA Contreas, Garlic and Stashak. To cheat and use previous players Megill is similar to Pressly when they got him from the Red Sox. Enlow has four quality pitches and is only just building up to starter innings. Garlic is an AAAA player. The splits are brutal. Stashak hasn't been healthy enough to get a roster spot.

    A playoff team that is dangerous and can win any series has a good player a SS. The Phillies just made it to the series with 5-6 DH's. But lost to the team that was better built and has a quality SS. 

    I think this is an understated factor. I believe there is a 10% of signing Correa. They cannot hang around and wait for him and miss out on other free agents. Sign him early or move on and get some other needed parts before they are snapped up. 

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    Nick, really appreciate the update, especially with a little more detail and background on the coaching and administrative changes. 

    Couple points:

    1] I understand the use of a projected payroll of $140M based on last year. We have to start somewhere, right? But I recall last year at this time, coming off a poor 2021, when some projected cost cutting and a payroll of $100-120M. Instead, the Twins and the FO did what they've largely done thus far, and keep payroll about ML average, usually placing somewhere around 14th to 16th. MLB, like most sports and entertainment industries, tends to follow a different path, often, than "normal" economic factors. I fully expect MLB to see a solid 5% raise in salaries across the board. I think that's a fair and even trend across sports in general. (The 2020 covid year was a weird and difficult outlier across sports-given). If we follow precedence,  said increase should put the Twins at around $147M. 

    2] The total amount of available spending capital is so damn hard to predict, not just because of any obscure Correa factor, but also due to Kepler and Urshela. There are a ton of reasons to keep both.

    A healthy Kepler is a good player and excellent defender who is "cheap" considering total value. And while I have great faith in Larnach, and Wallner, one may or may not be quite ready and AK remains a very hopeful question mark, I personally am not "counting" on him. And while the Twins, yet again, very much need a RH OF, there's real value in keeping a healthy Kepler as more of a "sure thing", especially with an OF addition.

    Everything I just said about Kepler pretty much applies to Urshela. He's a good teammate and a very solid player with real value. And I'd like to keep him in various, potential roster configurations. 

    The problem is, combined, they offer another $18M in spending capital to augment the roster if the Twins sign Correa...or one of the other top SS...and make a serious move for Rodon...my #1 or #2 target...or maybe a Bassett SP option. Is signing Correa, or one of the other top SS to a somewhat lesser deal, AND signing Rodon a fantasy? Maybe it is. But this FO is placed in an enviable and opportunistic situation that we haven't seen before! So however it works out, and whatever change of direction might take place, it may simply prove necessary to move either or both of Kepler and Urshela in order to flesh out the rest of the roster. 

    The absolute WORST THING they could do at this point is just sit back and wait and be "patient" and just wait for things to fall in their lap. It's not going to happen. And then they've BLOWN all this opportunity to re-tool a team that could be really good and end up in a "settle" and hope situation.

    3] I have to somewhat disagree with the "no trouble" clearing additional roster spot comment. And I've been saying this for a while now. While SS is the only major hole projected towards 2023, there are definite needs. Needs are a RH bat, another catcher, probably one more quality BP arm, and SS. And there remains the arguable "one more SP as good as Gray and Mahle or better" scenario. That's at least 4 spots, very possibly 5, and maybe 6 if we can bring on yet another quality BP arm.

    And we're at 37 on the roster right now.

    And then we still need to protect at least a handful of milb players.

    Pagan should be moved for ANYTHING if someone will bite. Otherwise, dump him immediately.  We NEED better than Garlick, though I'd love to have him back on a milb deal, maybe a split deal like Cave had. I just don't see protecting Stashak, coming off injury. Would be nice to have him back, but don't see anyone nabbing him, and there are other arms in the system getting ready. No way we protect Contreras, though again, I'd sure like him back at AAA. 

    37-4 is 33 on the 40 man. Room enough to add 4-6 additions, C, OF/RH bat, SS, RP, additional P, whether SP or RP or both. But what about protecting prospects? 

    And I know once you "set" your 40 man you can then cut someone later after the rule 5 and hope they sneak through, in order to add someone else. And I know that typically, most teams only lose 2-3 players in the rule 5. 

    But is it smart to risk Enlow, Sands, and MAYBE Megill? I'm OK risking Megill despite his stuff and "possibly" harnessing it. Love to have him at AAA, but his stuff, though good, hasn't proven consistent enough to warrant a spot push come to shove. Sands has equally good stuff, has been a top 20 prospect, has flashed a little, but not proven enough yet. But we dump him? He could be another Jax, if not better, and provides depth. Does a good, solid milb career until 2022 warrant risking his potential loss? Maybe so. Enlow was a high pick and signed for over value who didn't flash until late in 2019 and the early part of 2021 before surgery. Still only 23yo and protected thus far, do you risk someone snapping him up for future protection?

    I'm NOT saying you are wrong to not protect arms like Sands and Enlow in particular, Megill as a "maybe", I'm just saying NOT protecting a couple arms like these could bite in a year or so. Same with Canterino, very similar situation to Enlow. I just can't believe anyone would nab Canterino coming off surgery, but I never saw the Orioles grabbing and keeping Tyler Wells either.

    Again, you're not wrong about "easy" cuts, but I'm not sure there won't be some hard decisions of who to protect and who not to either. Despite recent trades and movement upward ML promotions, and some potentially bad draft selections. the Twins aren't devoid of talent. And like everyone else, the lost 2020 season doesn't affect rule 5 status. And while rule 5 won't be some free for all situation, there are more than a few solid prospects to try and protect, without room for all, that I don't think "easy" not protecting is necessarily all that easy. 

     

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    3 hours ago, DocBauer said:

    Roger, it's my understanding that those buyouts are part of 2022 business, so that $4.5M actually goes toward last season and not next.

    Yup. I always used to assume it carried forward and applied to the following year's budget, but I believe Gleeman mentioned on GATG that he looked into it and it's as Doc said. Which means going forward we should probably be factoring any buyout clauses into the current year's payroll.

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    My first big move:

    Fire Falvey and Lavine.  Back the brinks truck up for Click from Astros.

    At least he still has the illusion of competence (whether true or not) and would get the fan base excited.

    Then worry about the roster, which will stink this year no matter who’s running it.

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    The great debate….. Sign Correa to a long term deal or the Cubs C Contreras and Bassit to 4 year 80 and 3 year 60 respectively.  With a SS like Andrus, which of these two scenarios gives us the most talent and bang for buck?  Keep in mind we could resign Sanchez for backup C as he was league average and won’t cost much.  Not sure we could afford Bassit if we sign Correa.  I think a Rodon signing is too risky for the price compared to better options out there. 
     

    I only see OF Contreras, Garlick as easy cuts.  The others have value and we be tougher decisions in my book.  
     

    Urshala is an easy keep.  

    I see us keeping Pagan with a lower base like 2.8 million instead of what he is projected.  He did pitch better the last couple of months of the season.  I can see a pathway for him to return.  If it truly was he needed to fail to get to a point of following directions and he is now.

    also this has been a fun discussion thread to read.  

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    There are a couple of teams wanting to possibly wanting to trade one of there young catchers (Toronto & Oakland).    Rumors have it  that the Marlins would consider moving RH pitcher Lopez. ReSign FA Correa, Fulmer, T.Rogers & Haniger. This would make the “23” budget about $140-$150m. It would depend  on who gets traded from the Twins?

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    I would offer arbitration to Urshela and Pagan. If cut in spring training, do you save money on Pagan?

    I would go all-in on Rodon. Adding him to the rotation suddenly means you have some good prospect depthg for dealing: Winder, Varland, Ober, Sands could all be part of a package. You could also dangle Enlow as an add-on.

    I would also go after Bogarts or Correa. I would front load the contract at like $40 the first couple of season's with a free-agent opt-out if they player wishes to go higher for the next x-amount of years. The Twins have the money to send bigger up front and if you get stuck with the contract down-the-line, it shouldn't help so much.

    Getting a long-term shortstop suddenly means you have to find other palces for Lewis or Martin to play, probably joining the outfield depth of Celestino, Kepler, Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff. You suddenly have a lot of depth there to offer up in a trade.

    I would seriously, then, consider trading some pitchers or outfielders to the A's for Murphy as the catcher the Twins need for three more seasons.

    Julien and Lee are both prospects that might be here fulltime in 2023. So we have to hang onto Polanco.

    Again, signing Pagan and Urshela also makes them available, if the Twins deicde to make a trade.

    Once they conquer the #1 rotation arm, shortstop, and catcher problem...then I would look forward to grabbing a short-term right-handed hitting bat whoi might play the field (making an outfielder even more expendable), or able to grab Abreu for two seasons to rotate with Arraex at 1B/DH.

    I don't picture the Twins adding more than 3 guys to protect from the Rule 5, one being Canterino, who would start the season on the 60-day IL. 

    You keep names like Garlick (if you wish to go to arbitration), Cntreras, Enlow, Megill to replace if you sign bonafide free agents. DON'T sign any more Cottons and Megills and add them to the 40-man roster, when a minor league contract should suffice.

    3-4 years for Rodon.

    Up to 8-10 years for a shortstop (ugh!).

    2 years for a right-handed Abreu.

    You need to keep three of Larnach, Kirilloff, Kepler, Celestino, Gordon, Wallner, Lewis and, eventually, Martin.

    Again, Winder, Sands, Varland, Enlow, Ober. You could probably lose up to three of these as you have Woods Richardson in reserve, Balazovic making (I hope) a comeback, and dark horse Randy Dobnak.

    What would it take to get three years of Murphy?

     

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    On 11/10/2022 at 6:58 PM, DocBauer said:

    Roger, it's my understanding that those buyouts are part of 2022 business, so that $4.5M actually goes toward last season and not next.

    Those buyouts are paid in 2022 right.  If so, the IRS says they should be recognized as part of 2022 from a legal perspective.  How the Twins recognize these costs in terms of setting the 2023 budget IDK.  Hopefully what's done is done but previous year financial performance generally has some influence on the following year budget in other companies / industries.   

    What lies ahead has influence as well.  They have Gray / Mahle / Urshela & Maeda coming off for sure.  I could also see Kepler and/or Polanco being traded.   They are in a good position to invest. 

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    Rosterman, Murphy would be VERY expensive.  That's why I'd recommend trading for Jansen from Toronto.  He's not as good, but he's MILES ahead of anyone we have.  I'd like to use some leftover trade capital to try to land someone like Woodruff or Lopez to head our staff.  

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