Twins Offseason Chapter has a Loaded Amount of Spoilers

Interesting take Ted. Appreciate the perspective.

Concur, Ted. I’d love to see someone take a step back and look for the trends they see since the new guys have come on. Here are a few hypotheses I’d suggest:

1. An emphasis on new approaches when it comes to staff (Rookie manager Baldelli and his emphasis on rest, a pitching coach from the college ranks, etc.)

2. A reluctance to back themselves into corners with long-term moves. We’ve yet to see a contract more than three years, right? Folks may grumble, but I don’t think we’re going to be grumbling about having four years left on an overpriced contract.

3. An emphasis on making multiple moves that nudge the needle as opposed to making single big-splash moves. For example, last year included five free agent signings in Cruz, Schoop, Cron, Perez, Gonzalez, and six if you consider that Pineda was really a 2019 signing. I didn’t count the trades in July 2019, but in both July 2017 and July 2018, they made a higher-than-average number of trades in comparison to other teams.

4. Often getting a little more, sometimes using options to do it. This is related to not backing themselves into corners. Rather than committing to two years to Cruz and Perez, they sign them to a year with an option. Then, they make the smart choice on picking up Cruz and walk away from Perez with very little outlay. In Cron and Schoop, they effectively did the same. By signing non-tender guys, they effectively got two years (or more of control), but decided at a later date that they didn’t want the additional years.

If I could summarize what I’ve seen, it would be to say that there emphasis is on incremental change that keeps options open. That’s not everyone’s style, but it happens to match my preferred method of managing life, so I can say I like it a lot. I’m also intrigued to see where we end. It’s only Dec. 5, and I think there’s still a lot of moves they will make.

The Front Office is still remaking the Twins in their own desired image. Last year they finally got to put their own field staff on the diamond. The management of the minor leagues has been shuffled and should be fully revised this coming season. 

There is still a shakeout on what to do with the star prospects of the old regime (Berrios, Rosario, Sano, Buxton) for how long and how much. I'm seeing that a bigger emphasis is being placed on grooming players for future roles, and I don't doubt that something big might happen. But the timetable I saw for the Twins FLavine regime was 2021. 

The made some good moves last season. They will do the same this season. Again, the big decision is Sano longterm, at third or first of just as a Twin. How much is Berrios worth...is he a $100 million pitcher. Will Buxton be a Twin forever or pushed by Larnach to anotehr team. I think what they do with Rosario between now and spring training will also speak...take the chance and move him when he MIGHT be worth his most...and for what?

They still are getting a feel for the farm system. But I can see them following the Astros format and grabbing a big-money name like Grienke for some prospects rather than signing a guy for 5-7 years and $200 million. They will always be out there at trade deadline, but you carefully think about what they bring now and in the future at what cost. It ain't easy being a general maager.

There's three or four stellar free agents. The chances of them coming to Minnesota is nill, unless you have been placing yourself in the World Series year-after-year. 

And then, like starting pitchers, there ae a dozen teams looking at guys like Odorizzi, Gibson, Pineda who would happily pay less than what they guys got this year. The competition comes in paying more than what the guys got.

A player wants money. They want a contract of length. The want to play for a competitive team. They look at location and what other possible revenue opportunities exist for them (ads, spokesperson). They have agents pushing for them to take the biggest contract today.

I've been a fan and follower since the late 60's and I do share DomeDogg's disease. I call it BTFS - battered twins fan syndrome. I will say I agree with Ted on this one, and credit the new front office for bringing me back from the Terry Ryan induced disease that has afflicted me since the mid 90's. I believe the hope I have today isn't misplaced, as in years past. There is a whole new system, and a whole new organization in process today the likes of which I haven't seen in Minnesota. What these guys seem to be building, I can get excited about. But I do understand where comments like DD's come from. They were coming out of my mouth every day up until a year or so ago. 

The point isn't that people were excited. The point is that they made a series of good signings to position themselves for another playoff run. The season went south for a variety of reasons, and I think it's an unfair assessment of the FO to pin the disappointment entirely on their FA signings that year. The real issue was the existing core that didn't produce as needed, a manager who was ill suited for running a modern MLB team, as well as some FA signings that didn't turn out as hoped.

We were excited after 2017. And don't forget that also added Lance Lynn in 2018. The free agents helped. But the Twins, because then didn't compete, did manage to move some for some talent (as well as prospective free agents). Hey, if 2019 didn't happen as it did, the Twins would've been flipping Odorizzi, Pineda, Schoop, Cron and Castro, too for more and mroe prospects, rather than losing them to free agency.

Always remember, everyone wants the BEST of the free agents. But everyone does have payroll restrictions, or roster space availability. (Remember now, Pineda needs to hold a 40-man spot thru spring training. He then can go on the suspended list opening the season. The Twins could add someone from the minorleague side. But also remember that when Pineda comes back, unless they are disabled and go to the 60-man, the Twins will have to lose a player, perhaps from the organization as well as as the 40-man.

And one more comment on payroll. Some teams (i.e. Yankees) have the ability to release/not play $30-40 million of payroll and not have it hurt them on the field. The majority of teams cannot afford to have that talent collecting paychecks and not producing, let alone outright releasing a body and eating their payroll cost (i.e. the Twins eating Addison Reed's salary, paying for Mike Lamb to play ball for anotehr couple of seasons........).

Tremendous post, Ted! Really enjoyed it!

Look, I'm bummed on losing out on Wheeler and the hoped for potential he would climb the ladder. But until the smoke clears and the dust settles, we simply don't know what the FO is going to do yet. What if we lose out on Bumgarner and Ryu, etc, but the FO pulls off a trade for Gray? What if the grab Archer away from the re-building Pirates for a fair package and back in the AL and working with Johnson he pitches as well as he ever has? Will anyone care then we lost out on the big name FA?

Without making any huge moves, and even with collapses by Perez and Gibson, we had some of the best SP in the league last year by what we DID HAVE. Despite not making the moves we all cried out for in the bullpen, they cobbled together a workable group that changed out and got better the second half of the year. (Even with the Dyson move completely blowing up).

With little exception, I can't find fault with most any move this FO has made the past 2 years. (Verdict is out on a couple still). They have been aggressive at times, inventive at times, swapped out temporary assets for at least fliers, eaten $ on occasion, and basically run the entire organization from top to bottom very differently than it was in the past.

Between draft selections, international FA and trades, they have assembled one of the best and deepest farm systems in MLB. They talk about building an organization and maintaining stability. This means having prospects to promote...which they have done far more aggressively...but also having prospects to move. And I think you will start to see some of that happening in the not to distant future.

As someone else pointed out, there are a handful of teams in MLB that can actually afford to have $20-30+M in dead money on the books. Most teams, including the Twins, can't afford to do that. So at some point, Darvish last year, Wheeler this year, the FO just decides a certain number is enough. From what we have heard about Wheeler...and we don't know if the Twins were willing to bump their offer or not...he turned down the Dirty Sox for the Phillies despite a reportedly higher offer. It happens. I get WANT and EXCITEMENT, but there are a lot of ways to build a good ballclub that can compete.

And I say again, when the dust settles and smoke clears, and this team is in the thick of things again, will it matter how they accomplished it? Or just that they have?

MLB teams seem to operate on a philosophy of salary levels based on percent of revenue. The number I hear often is approx. 51%. If one compares the Twins revenue with the Big Boys it's significantly lower. So it's likely this team isn't going to go toe to toe with large market teams. Of course JP could spend some of the money Carl left him and the boys on a big ticket FA. But anyone who has watched the Twins since Eloise made Carl buy her a baseball team knows that is never going to happen. Weeping and gnashing of the teeth won't help. What JP has done is install a FO that accepts this and knows that they must succeed using a different format. Draft, develop, promote and utilize with innovation and a certain amount of aggression. So far they are headed in the right direction. I am sure that they will be competitive on a regular basis in the regular season. Getting over the hump in 5-7 game playoff series is the next step. The route the FO has been tasked with takes time, real time not ownership public relations time. I think this FO will produce credible and competive teams going forth. I also think they will eventually improve the IF and catching defense. While a few mid level FA signings will help, the large part this will have to come from inside the orginisation. Waiting for JP to green light a huge contract for a high level FA just isn't something that's going to happen. Even Santa couldn't pull that out of his bag of goodies!

Unless, you were just trying to reduce the article as worthless because you believe that there is just "no hope" and you just wanted to type that for those like Ted who have hope.

Hope? Or something to sell? It’s literally their job to attempt to instill hope to keep people coming back and reading articles. Why on earth would they say, “look, this off-season is really going to suck. Nothing to see here for a few months”?

Having hope is one thing. But, constantly chiding the numerous Twins’ fans that are tired of always being sold false hope as if they’re stupid for not buying it is another.

Are we really only supposed to come around here to father and collectively lie to ourselves?

What has this front office shown that is different than the previous? We’re really pointing to a 1 year $6.5M deal to Logan Morrison and a 2 year $16M deal to a spent reliever as the shining example of a sea-change?

How is comparing this FO to the previous I regards to free agency so ridiculous that it requires insulting someone’s intelligence (if you think saying “the fastest way to lose is credibility, etc.” is anything more than a passive-aggressive way of doing just that, you’re wrong)? Because they signed Logan freaking Morrison?

I don’t know if it’s intentional or delusion, but some of these free agency forums are like a Twilight Zone episode. I just don’t know how people buy into it so much that they outright deny some of these things. I get the writers motivation (need to generate readable columns and excitement). But your average reader/fan? Is it ass kissing? Do they think it makes them “enlightened?” A need to feel included? A coping mechanism to get through year after year of the same? I’m genuinely confused.

I don’t understand the complaints about this front office.  They have been very successful by any rational comparison.  The team just won a 101 games last year.  The critics asked for and got change and improvement in virtually every area of the organization from where it was 3 years ago.  It is the burden of some Twins fans to believe that their is some nefarious lineage that flowed from Carl and TR and lives on today.  Perhaps the critics should consider altering their perennial skeptical expectations.  Things change sometimes for the better.  We have our best shot since 1991 to win a WS.  I am interested in that not in complaining about the offseason or PR battle for who can sign the most famous player for the most exorbitant amount of money.  This is a strong organization that will be in the thick of the races for the next several years.  They are doing well and the critics need to find some way to deal with that.