Twins Need to Fix Revolving Door Up the Middle

I'm ready to wait for the young player to take over and we got three choices for that. That's where we get long-term repeat Short stops like we had with gagne and Versalles. 

The biggest contract for the Superstar is not the solution for me. Develop that short stuff. So Houston did and when they star gets too pricey they were ready with another one to fill this place

Stop gap mentality of the FO has to change which in turn should deliver the strong up the middle every team desires.  Your high spending teams theoretically all have that today, Twins could be most likely will choose not to join a bidding war. As for Buxton he is the wild card as he should play 80-85% of all games and only 5% of those should be as a DH.  if he isn't on the field, then we sure did lock him up for an awful long time as broken body DH.

SS is next.  Correa is betting on himself and why not?  All stars want their guaranteed money as the agents chirp in their ear so they can get their cut.  I don't like the fact that it would take probably 7 years to have that deal but then we blow up the payroll to address SP needs.  We are not 1 SP stud acquisition away for the starting staff.  That one stud will cost us dearly.

Catcher to me is an important part of this equation.  Growing up playing baseball thru college under some really good coaches, they preached strong up the middle all day long, starting with the catcher, then your starting pitcher, SS and CF. If you had 3 guys you can rely on out of the 4 you created continuity.  The 4th was the pitching component.  

Brooks Lee is interesting.  Let's say he is in spring training with the big club and you let him not only get his feet wet, you let him get soaked for a month.  See what he can handle and how much he can handle it.  If we swing and miss on Correa, do we really want to have a placeholder?  I say no.  Lewis is mid-season ready at best and even then you just don't know how he will hold up.  Back in the 70's/early 80's a strong defensive player at short and light hitting at the plate was the norm.  First big hitting/strong defender to change the philosophy was Ripken in Baltimore followed by Jeter/Rodriquez etc.  

Game has changed but as you say, the strong up the middle defense hasn't.  It comes down to what do we want from the middles guys on offensive side of the ledger.  We all wish for gold gloves and silver sluggers at each position as does everyone else in the league.

Go Twins!

Yep, the Twins need top be stronger at catcher. They have to be able to call the game and throw out runners, especially with new rules coming into play.

Then you have the need for a rotation, a strong stopper of a starter who can keep you deep into the game. You need a lefthander in the mix.

You need a second-base/shortstop combo. Is Royce Lewis the answer? Do you hold out and hope Brooks Lee advances faster than one in the Twins system has?

And you need an everyday centerfielder that you can build both sides of the outfield off. If he can't cover ground, you have to rethink those positions. Hopefully he gives you bat or speed, or maybe both is super. Buxton is super...when he plays.

Tough decision for the FO on this topic.  As we all know, the real value for teams is getting the best of players before they hit FA.  Once you pay big for a FA, you are in essence paying for the performance that they gave their past team as by the time they hit FA, skills can start declining.  Look at this case with Correa and the Astros kid SS.  They got all that WPA from CC and when the price got big they went to their next kid SS and now are getting performance for peanuts.

I like CC4, and wish the Twins would up their payroll and get some more veteran talent, but there is a fine line there between too much payroll for declining talent and too little payroll for inexperienced talent.  The FO need to find that balance and pick and choose correctly.

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

The Lewis injury really messed things up here. If he'd remained healthy and produced for the rest of the season at the plate this discussion would be over and he'd be the guy moving forward at SS. But that's not what happened, and no matter how good any of us think he'll be (and I think he'll be a star) you can't go into 2023 and beyond banking on him returning as the player he was during the start of 2022. 

Martin isn't a SS. Nobody thinks he can defend there. The Twins need to quit wasting time on this nonsense and move him to 2B or the OF (I prefer the OF). Although, them continuing to force him into SS action makes me think maybe they're planning on jumping him to the majors early next year as part of the "just survive until Lewis is ready" plan. I hope that's not their thought.

Lee is a bit of a wild card. From all reports his glove work is A+, but he doesn't have the range to play SS. If this is the case he's far more suited to 3B now that the shift is going away and the middle infield is getting back to needing much more range. I haven't seen him play SS enough to really have an opinion on his range, but the Twins need to be honest with themselves on what they have in Lee. Is he really a SS and how quickly will he be major league ready?

There's nobody else in the entire organization that looks remotely capable of handling SS for the Minnesota Twins to start 2023 or at any point in the near future. Polanco isn't shifting back over, and Gordon isn't any more than a single game fill in option there. They need a SS. They have money to spend. Go get a star and worry about where Lewis, Martin, and Lee play when they're all ready. Too many SS is a good problem to have. The Twins aren't likely to actually run into that situation unless they sign one of the big 3 FA SS (I don't count Bogaerts as a SS as he's been terrible there defensively his whole career and is 30 years old now, he's a 3B) and Lewis returns as a star. But having 2 major league SS is a good problem to have. Especially when one is as athletic as Lewis and can play anywhere but catcher.

Go get a star with your 60 million in payroll space and quit messing around!

Great evalution at SS, chpettit. We need to sign Correa, we can always trade him (when) if Lewis establish himself as an all-star SS. Yet again it's great to have 2 great SS on hand. Lee could stick at SS (but not high end), Martin won't.

CF, SS, SP & catching are the bedrock of the defense so hitting should not take priority over defense. Back when pitchers would hit, you never look at pitcher if he could hit you look at what he could do on the mound.

The whole premise here is wrong. (Well not the revolving door part.) You don't need an veteran superstar shortstop to win a title. You need a balanced roster and pitching. (And pitching.)

The '87 and '91 Twins won the World Series with a solid SS in Gagne (again, solid but nobody's 'superstar'). In '65 they DID have a superstar at SS (Zoilo) and made the Series. The final four teams this year have shortstops that may turn into superstars, but they were on nobody's list of MLB's Top Ten SS last winter. Houston might be better this year than last after letting Correa go. The Braves won last year with a SS (Swanson) who LOST his arbitration bid to make 6.7 million. The 2020 Dodgers won with Cory Seager (clearly a star, and playoff MVP but not getting paid yet). The Nationals won in 2019 with Turner (not getting paid yet, but clearly a superstar). The 2018 Red Sox won with Xander Bogaerts (clearly a budding superstar but not getting paid yet). In 2017 the Astros won with a clear superstar (not getting paid yet) in Correa. In 2016 the Cubs won with Addison Russell who was good, but no superstar (never even 100 OPS+), and soon out of baseball. 2015 was the Royals and Escobar, 2014 and 2012 were the Giants and a young (not paid yet) Crawford. 2013 was the Red Sox with Iglesias and Bogaerts.

So over the past 11 seasons NO team has signed a big bucks SS and won the Series with them (though many won with youngsters who later signed for big bucks. By teams that didn't then win the Series. That is unlikely to change for the Twins if they lock up Correa, because...

The Twins JUST signed a big bucks SS (Correa), and finished a distant and fading third in a very weak division.

History and common sense says to spend our FA budget on building a balanced roster (where we have clear holes at C and OF), and add an ace. Do that last first, because you WILL find a strong correlation between having an elite SP and World Series titles.

1 hour ago, PatPfund said:

History and common sense says to spend our FA budget on building a balanced roster (where we have clear holes at C and OF), and add an ace. Do that last first, because you WILL find a strong correlation between having an elite SP and World Series titles.

Besides SS there are basically 3 stars at the positions you mention (OF, C, P) Judge (Will be 31 in April), Contreras (Will be 31 in May), and Rodon (will be 30 in December and who since 2015 has pitched more 140 innings Twice). The rest of just regular major league players that will probably end up being paid more than they are worth or upside isn't much higher than what they have for much cheaper. Spotrac is projecting Rodon's at 31.6 and 32 year old 5 inning major injury risk Eovaldi at 17 million.

People need to remember 31 year old Gausman signed a 5/110, 28 year old Berrios signed a 7/131, 30 year old Ray signed a 5/115 and Rodon signed a 2/44 on a bet on yourself contract and if he didn't opt out would be getting 22 million this year, he isn't taking less than Gausman or Ray signed for, unless it is another 1 year contract like he signed last year or something like Correa did this year.

People have talked about Benintendi currently spotrac is projecting his market value to be over 17 million, others have talked about Haniger his is projected at 14.7. (now they may not get that but one would assume is is probably going to be at least 80% of that)

Are the Twins going to spend 15 million plus to sign a 31 year old catcher to 115 games? Are the Twins going to pay Rodon 25 million plus to pitch 5 or 6 innings? Are the Twins really in the running for Judge?

That leaves IMO two short stops (Correa and Turner) maybe Rizzo or Arenado opts out, 32 year old with injury concerns Haniger, or trades (who is left to trade, the pitching pipeline or a few prospect that actually have a shot at being more than just regular major league starters?)

I will say this history doesn't say spend FA dollars on building a balanced roster it says spend your money wisely on good players.

7 hours ago, PatPfund said:

The whole premise here is wrong. (Well not the revolving door part.) You don't need an veteran superstar shortstop to win a title. You need a balanced roster and pitching. (And pitching.)

The '87 and '91 Twins won the World Series with a solid SS in Gagne (again, solid but nobody's 'superstar'). In '65 they DID have a superstar at SS (Zoilo) and made the Series. The final four teams this year have shortstops that may turn into superstars, but they were on nobody's list of MLB's Top Ten SS last winter. Houston might be better this year than last after letting Correa go. The Braves won last year with a SS (Swanson) who LOST his arbitration bid to make 6.7 million. The 2020 Dodgers won with Cory Seager (clearly a star, and playoff MVP but not getting paid yet). The Nationals won in 2019 with Turner (not getting paid yet, but clearly a superstar). The 2018 Red Sox won with Xander Bogaerts (clearly a budding superstar but not getting paid yet). In 2017 the Astros won with a clear superstar (not getting paid yet) in Correa. In 2016 the Cubs won with Addison Russell who was good, but no superstar (never even 100 OPS+), and soon out of baseball. 2015 was the Royals and Escobar, 2014 and 2012 were the Giants and a young (not paid yet) Crawford. 2013 was the Red Sox with Iglesias and Bogaerts.

So over the past 11 seasons NO team has signed a big bucks SS and won the Series with them (though many won with youngsters who later signed for big bucks. By teams that didn't then win the Series. That is unlikely to change for the Twins if they lock up Correa, because...

The Twins JUST signed a big bucks SS (Correa), and finished a distant and fading third in a very weak division.

History and common sense says to spend our FA budget on building a balanced roster (where we have clear holes at C and OF), and add an ace. Do that last first, because you WILL find a strong correlation between having an elite SP and World Series titles.

Can't tell you how much I liked your take.

The only revolving door they need to fix is the starting rotation we haven't had good rotation since Johan Santana and Brad radke and company  that's the only door to fix you can put lewis,lee,arraez or gordon etc up the middle main focus is the starting rotation 

Having SS Noah Miller barely hitting in A Ball certainly doesn't help here. Is there anything to be excited about, beyond the walks and his big brother being in the Majors? There had been a lot of reports of a great approach and intangibles. Any updates on Miller? 

The list of shortstops shows that winning is a team game because there have been plenty of winning seasons with shortstops that had flaws.

With next year's rule banning over shifting you are going to need athletic players at shortstop and second.  Correa would obviously foot the bill at short.  However he's simply too expensive.  Tying up that much payroll for one player doesn't leave much for either FA signings or paying arbitration eligible players.   I agree you need a balanced roster to be competitive.  What good does it do to pay Correa so much that all you are left with is a superstar shortstop on a team that will be .500 or less because there will be not enough payroll monies left over to field a good team?  IMO just move on without him.  He wasn't going to be here long term anyway.

I would let Urshela play SS and see what happens with Lewis' recovery, and Lee's development.

I want money put into pitching and a catcher.

I like Martin in LF, and hope his AFL performance is an indicator he is ready to go.

They should have $50-60M in payroll to go after pitching and a catcher, or at least trade for a catcher.  Skeptical on Jeffers, and he certainly needs help. Isola is a question mark.

23 minutes ago, Steve71 said:

I would let Urshela play SS and see what happens with Lewis' recovery, and Lee's development.

I want money put into pitching and a catcher.

I like Martin in LF, and hope his AFL performance is an indicator he is ready to go.

They should have $50-60M in payroll to go after pitching and a catcher, or at least trade for a catcher.  Skeptical on Jeffers, and he certainly needs help. Isola is a question mark.

I too like Urshela at SS until one of the four youngsters (Lewis , Lee, Miller or Martin) moves him off. 

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

OK... Yeah it would be nice to fix the revolving door at SS. But, I'll add that at other positions some of those doors solidly in place need to start revolving.

  

And the uninspired coaching staff   should have a revolving door ...

19 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The premise wasn't that they need a "veteran superstar shortstop to win a title." The premise was "the revolving door part." The premise was that they need some consistency. I mean Christian Guzman was used as the example and it was acknowledged that he wasn't a good player, let alone a superstar. The suggestion of Correa is based on him being the best option to provide stability at the position. The premise was about having a SS start multiple seasons in a row. Not re-signing Correa means that revolving door of a new player at one of the 4 most vital positions on the field will continue for another year.

We clearly don't agree. The title is about the revolving door. The implication underpinning the point of the article is that the revolving door is why the Twins are not successful. You accept that, and therefore it makes sense to plunk down money to sign a long-term shortstop to fix it, and you also accept "the suggestion" of Correa. Which really isn't a suggestion, it is the WHOLE point of Ted's post (because in this and others he clearly shows that is what he wants).

I openly reject the implication, and will openly state that I see no correlation between having the same starting shortstop and winning titles; Addison Russell only lasted a few years in MLB, and again, every team remaining in the fight this year is doing so with either a rookie at SS, or a backup, or both.

I also believe, and it is based on the evidence I cited, that signing a big-buck shortstop will absolutely doom the Twins to failure. It didn't work for us this year (and I might add it didn't work for Texas who signed two long-term SSs), and the strategy hasn't won a title in MLB for over a decade. I wouldn't be surprised if that changes at some point in the near future (LAD? NYY if they sign Carlos?), but the exception is almost certainly going to be a big market/huge budget team that has star pitching and a great lineup already.

Because I don't think the lack of big money shortstops winning titles is a fluke. I think this is a defense-first position where even the best tend to peak in their early MLB careers, that by the time they can command the big contracts you are paying for past performance, and that while a strong fielding shortstop can be key, devoting a large portion of your budget to the position is fatal for a mid-to-small market team. Such spending means you are probably shorting the positions where you need more offense than D, and it probably means you are shorting the pitching.

I don't think the Twins can afford both Rodón and Correa, and I think signing Rodón will make the Twins a better team (because I saw them with Correa, and I also saw them win over 100 games in 2019 with revolving shortstops). Sign a cheap glove-first SS, sign Rodón, sign another bat or two (a catcher? and one who plays a good OF), and this team is far superior to any that fixes 'the revolving SS problem' by blowing the bulk of our FA money on a soon-to-fade star, and then fighting for pitching table scraps and reclamation bats to fill our just-as-important roster holes.

1 hour ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

I too like Urshela at SS until one of the four youngsters (Lewis , Lee, Miller or Martin) moves him off. 

Any metrics available out there on whether Urshela has the range to cover SS? I have to admit I kind if shudder a little at the thought of a left side of the infield with Urshela and Miranda. Seems like a defensive nightmare waiting to happen.  Urshela paired with a strong defensive 3B might work but I don't think we have that guy.  

I think we are at least one cycle away from fixing the SS revolving door and that's if Lewis is the answer. If he isn't, we're farther away. I say offer Correa $35-37m a year for 7-8 years. If he declines that offer, the likely result, sign Elvis Andrus and commit to Lewis as the starting SS when's physically ready. Use the money for pitching, pitching, and more pitching. Sign at least Rondon and Fullmer, and then trade one of the young starting prospects plus Larnach for a good young RH hitting OF.  Maybe Larnach and Ober to the Pirates for Reynolds? Slight underpay by the Twins so maybe we add Sabato or Noah Miller?

In short, I'm hoping for one of 2 things given our real budget issues (1) a combination of moves that gets us a real SP to head the rotation, a good bullpen piece, plus a trade for a young, good hitting RH OF bat, and Lewis playing SS every day by mid-July. That's the deal above. (2) Sign Correa AND a good SP like Rondon, live with the heavily LH OF we have until Lewis is ready and then make him the LF to balance the lineup. 

11 hours ago, Karbo said:

I say sign Correa. 7 years 35 mil? They are going to have some payroll flexability coming up. IMHO the other position of real need is catcher. Jeffers hasn't proved he is a starter, or that he can stay healthy. Sure it would be great to sign a great FA pitcher, but IMO that falls to #3. Its time to see if the youngsters can do the job. 

Not a bad idea to anyone but Boras who is probably looking for a deal tp take Correa to 37. All iy takes is one team