Twins Minor League Report (9/4): Brooks Blasts While Winder Wheels

How does this happen?  #9 - Matt Wallner (St. Paul) - 0-1, BB, 2 K  It seems to me that 2 ks = 2 ABs

The best news of the day is Winder.  Call him up!  But let him know with the injuries we might be asking him to start.  I would take him over Sanchez.

Interesting to see who was released. It has to be difficult to be so close to the majors, but not good enough to hold back younger players. 

Sad to read Minaya was released. He was pretty decent for the Twins but they did not trust him. There are so many variables to sticking in the major leagues. Pagan is assured of a job but Minaya is not worthy. This was a conversation with guys who were released and joined our mens' team in Florida about 20+ years ago. One minute a guy is pitching in AAA, getting a cup of coffee and sleeping in sweet sheets at the MLB level, and then a few weeks later they are playing with a crew of guys in Town Ball. Caleb Thielbar never needed to dip to pitching for the Dundas Dukes ( a fine tradition and squad) but he did find himself on the independent team roster for the St. Paul Saints and now he is among the top three guys in the Twins MLB bullpen. Baseball is a tough job.

8 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Sad to read Minaya was released. He was pretty decent for the Twins but they did not trust him. There are so many variables to sticking in the major leagues. Pagan is assured of a job but Minaya is not worthy. This was a conversation with guys who were released and joined our mens' team in Florida about 20+ years ago. One minute a guy is pitching in AAA, getting a cup of coffee and sleeping in sweet sheets at the MLB level, and then a few weeks later they are playing with a crew of guys in Town Ball. Caleb Thielbar never needed to dip to pitching for the Dundas Dukes ( a fine tradition and squad) but he did find himself on the independent team roster for the St. Paul Saints and now he is among the top three guys in the Twins MLB bullpen. Baseball is a tough job.

Reminds me of the movie Bull Durham, though Minaya wasn't exactly pitching great with the Saints. Minaya can hop around the minors in AAA filling a teams holes but each September he is likely to get cut as younger guys keep taking his spot.

Winder, Dobnak and Sands all pitched for the Saints yesterday.  Add Varland and Balazovic and you have five great young arms who should be part of the Twins staff next year and many more.  Must be fun being a Saints fan.  
And that doesn’t include Smeltzer who will likely see some time with the Twins next year.  Question remains whether any of these guys will be a front of the rotation starter?

32 minutes ago, roger said:

Winder, Dobnak and Sands all pitched for the Saints yesterday.  Add Varland and Balazovic and you have five great young arms who should be part of the Twins staff next year and many more.  Must be fun being a Saints fan.  
And that doesn’t include Smeltzer who will likely see some time with the Twins next year.  Question remains whether any of these guys will be a front of the rotation starter?

This is not meant to be negative, but Balazovic will be 24 in just over a week, Dobnak is 27 1/2, Sands just turned 25, Winder will be 26 in just over a month, Varland will be 25 in three months, and Smeltzer will be 27 in two days, shouldn't guys in this age range absolutely be dominating AAA? The Marlins starting whole rotation for example is either 24 or 26 and Seattle and Houston each have 3 guys in this age range.

With guys that the Twins and fans are excited about being in MPLS sooner than later I would expect domination from this group. (Varland is, and Winder has been good minus a couple of homers)

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

One minute a guy is pitching in AAA, getting a cup of coffee and sleeping in sweet sheets at the MLB level, and then a few weeks later they are playing with a crew of guys in Town Ball. Caleb Thielbar never needed to dip to pitching for the Dundas Dukes ( a fine tradition and squad) but he did find himself on the independent team roster for the St. Paul Saints and now he is among the top three guys in the Twins MLB bullpen. Baseball is a tough job.

What are the town-ball restrictions on professional vs. amateur status? Can one simply become amateur again after leaving organized ball? Or are professionals allowed to play in town leagues?

I think Varland has a chance to be a good starter, but Dobnak and Smeltzer will end up in the bullpen at best next year IMHO.  Balazovic has been horrible this year, so I suspect he will need most or all of next year to reestablish himself as prospect.  Maybe injuries bothered him, but the times I have seen him he simply has no command of the strike zone.  He is not pitching the way you would like a top prospect to pitch.  Winder I simply don't know about.  I think he has good potential, but he is up and down, and injured.  As TwinsDr2021 notes, none of these guys are getting any younger.  Frankly, I think Prielapp may be the best of the bunch.  I can't wait to see him pitch.  I presume Varland or Winder will be called up to replace Mahle and maybe Gray.  

Going to need Winder up soon, but probably in the rotation and not the pen, though we could still use consistent long arms there. (Sanchez, Smeltzer, and Sands may be able to handle that role for now.)

And it looks like either SWR or Varland are going to get an early shot if the Twins arms keep dropping

15 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

Going to need Winder up soon, but probably in the rotation and not the pen, though we could still use consistent long arms there. (Sanchez, Smeltzer, and Sands may be able to handle that role for now.)

And it looks like either SWR or Varland are going to get an early shot if the Twins arms keep dropping

 

I just don't see Winder as a legitimate starter anymore, and I've been as high on him as anybody. I don't think his shoulder can handle the workload. As far as this year, he's missed so much time he'll need to be stretched back out and there just really isn't enough time to do it and still make more than a start or two for the Twins IMHO.

5 hours ago, roger said:

Winder, Dobnak and Sands all pitched for the Saints yesterday.  Add Varland and Balazovic and you have five great young arms

Randy Dobnak is about 4 months younger than Tyler Mahle. I don't know if he will ever pitch for the Twins again.

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Randy Dobnak is about 4 months younger than Tyler Mahle. I don't know if he will ever pitch for the Twins again.

I don’t understand why all this concern over age.  Not a pitcher, but wasn’t Nelson Cruz old before he was great?

As for Dobber, I believe he is under contract for several years.  And he actually was quite good before the injuries started.  And this latest injury is strange, so maybe he won’t ever be right again.

5 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

I have little interest in the low ceiling Dobnak and Smeltzer.

But I could care less about their ages. What's it matter? If a pitcher comes up at the age of 24-25, the Twins will control them through their useful years anyway. Winder and Varland still look to have the potential to be very good  starters. Sands looks to be a promising bullpen arm and I'm looking forward to seeing if an offseason of relief conditioning does to his velocity what it did to Jax's. Balazovic is still a wild card, though obviously the sheen is off the rose.

There ages don't matter, I was just pointing out at their ages shouldn't they dominate the minors? Varland is and Winder minus a few homers and if healthy probably would be in the big leagues. But I guess my comment was also about this "Must be fun being a Saints fan.  "

The Saints are under .500 with all these players, not sure how well that bodes for the Twins.

1 hour ago, roger said:

I don’t understand why all this concern over age.  Not a pitcher, but wasn’t Nelson Cruz old before he was great?

As for Dobber, I believe he is under contract for several years.  And he actually was quite good before the injuries started.  And this latest injury is strange, so maybe he won’t ever be right again.

My post wasn't suppose to be a concern, but in the recent history (like last 30+ years) very few starting pitchers that debut after the age of 24 turn out to be top of the rotation starters (Nick Blackburn and Mike Clevinger debuted at 25 for example), lots of dominant bullpen guys debut at that age or later, so in general if you have an arm in the minors that hasn't debuted by age 25 the overwhelming odds say that guy will pitch out of the pen or have just a couple of decent seasons as a starter at best.

Next year the Twins will have a 25 year old Varland, 26 year old Winder and 27 year old Ober fighting to just make the team in the pen with one maybe getting a starting job (Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda and Paddack coming back)

Now I think the Twins might looks to trade Gray for example which might open up a spot or even Mahle if he isn't happy here (not saying he isn't but if he is not), but I also see the Twins bringing in a Bundy/Archer type for depth. And While these guys are getting older the next group of younger, shinier guys will be here in no time, hopefully, fingers crossed.

Nelson Cruz debuted at 24 but wasn't full time until he was 28 but was suspended at age 32 for role in the Biogenesis drug case so maybe not the best example?

14 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

My post wasn't suppose to be a concern, but in the recent history (like last 30+ years) very few starting pitchers that debut after the age of 24 turn out to be top of the rotation starters (Nick Blackburn and Mike Clevinger debuted at 25 for example), lots of dominant bullpen guys debut at that age or later, so in general if you have an arm in the minors that hasn't debuted by age 25 the overwhelming odds say that guy will pitch out of the pen or have just a couple of decent seasons as a starter at best.

Next year the Twins will have a 25 year old Varland, 26 year old Winder and 27 year old Ober fighting to just make the team in the pen with one maybe getting a starting job (Gray, Ryan, Mahle, Maeda and Paddack coming back)

Now I think the Twins might looks to trade Gray for example which might open up a spot or even Mahle if he isn't happy here (not saying he isn't but if he is not), but I also see the Twins bringing in a Bundy/Archer type for depth. And While these guys are getting older the next group of younger, shinier guys will be here in no time, hopefully, fingers crossed.

 

Nelson Cruz debuted at 24 but wasn't full time until he was 28 but was suspended at age 32 for role in the Biogenesis drug case so maybe not the best example?

Not disagreeing with anything you say.  However, all this talk about age drives me nuts.  Every kid is different with a different development timeline.  Most never make it.  Some make it sooner than others.  Blanket statements that because Player Z is older than 25 and isn't in the big leagues means he has a minimal future just don't make sense.  His future is up to him and granted only a few will become top notch big league players.

Also, none of those previous pitchers prior to the current group missed an entire year of development for COVID, and then had the following year also affected by missing that year.  Minor League baseball is changing as there are 40 some less teams than previously.  With the draft down to what is it, 20 rounds?, there are going to be less high school kids starting their professional careers with more of them going to college.  The result, more kids beginning their careers out of college at an older age, ie, they get to 25 awfully fast when breaking in as a 21-22 year old.

42 minutes ago, roger said:

Blanket statements that because Player Z is older than 25 and isn't in the big leagues means he has a minimal future just don't make sense

It might not make sense, but history shows this to be true true statement, maybe the next few years will prove different (because of Covid) or asking so much less from starters in the past then now may change this as well but asking a older (in terms of baseball) pitcher to do something he hasn't done in the past usually is setting up failure. Maybe only asking these guys to go 5 or only face a lineup twice will greatly improve their odds of being major league pitchers or give them time to get their feet wet to become somebody that can go deeper.

Some of these guys aren't much younger than Stephen Gonsalves and haven't done what he did in his early twenties in the minors and he is 28 pitching in AAA. I hope this group of Twins pitchers break the overwhelming odds, I am just not going to get overly excited about them doing it, am I cheering for that absolutely.

Hopefully Varland can come up this year and do great in each 5 inning start and next year go further and in 24 he is top pitcher consistently pitching in the 7th or later. But if forced to bet real money, I am betting against all of them being anything more than a bullpen or 5 inning pitcher.