Twins Video
Emilio Pagan was very good for the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019. He hasn’t been since. In two seasons with the Padres, Pagan posted a 4.75 ERA alongside a 5.09 FIP. He was striking out more than a batter per inning, but he was allowing more homers than a batting practice soft-tosser. Unfortunately, nothing has changed with the Minnesota Twins.
After another blown save, and loss, against the Los Angeles Angels over the weekend, Pagan owns a career worst 5.10 ERA. It’s backed by a 4.63 FIP and while he’s got a solid 12.8 K/9, he is again allowing 2.1 HR/9 and is issuing a career worst 3.8 BB/9. In short, every time he comes out, disaster looms.
Rocco Baldelli has looked to pick his spots with Pagan. While he was originally penciled in as the Twins closer, Pagan quickly worked himself down the pecking order in one of baseball’s worst bullpens. With an overhaul needed at the trade deadline, both Jorge Lopez and Michael Fulmer were brought into the fold. Pagan has since been relegated to low-leverage spots, while occasionally finding himself with an opportunity to ruin a game.
On the season he is responsible for six losses and seven blown saves. Having contributed just nine saves on the season, he’s ultimately contributed far more negative value than anything else. He has been worth -0.3 fWAR, and his -0.94 win probability added (WPA) is nearly a career low. For a Twins team that’s threading the needle in an American League Central division begging for a winner, one pitcher being this bad ultimately has held them back.
Part of the allure in acquiring Pagan was that he presented Minnesota with future opportunity. He’s under team control for another year, and is just 31-years-old. It’s worth questioning if he should be here now though, rather than even considering a arbitration-induced contract for 2023.
Ultimately the Twins continue to give Pagan chances because he has stuff that should play. His 95.6 mph fastball has never been more powerful, and his 14.5% whiff rate is near a career high. He also induces chases at over 34% this season, a career high. That combination should result in something far more positive than it has. The issue is that Pagan has not been able to show ability despite the stuff.
Both Pagan’s xFIP and xERA are far better than the results have bore out thus far, but the caveat to expected stats is that they don’t matter until they’re actualized. Pagan has cost the Twins more than a handful of games at this point, and it’s hard to attribute any where he has actually been the reason they won. This organization can continue to keep hoping what may play out will happen, or they can cut the losses and try to salvage things where they stand now.
Maybe the next organization claiming Pagan figures out the trick that San Diego and Minnesota missed on, or maybe Pagan just will never be anything close to what his abilities suggest are possible. Either way, the longer the Twins wait to find out, the more dire their season gets.
MORE FROM TWINS DAILY
— Latest Twins coverage from our writers
— Recent Twins discussion in our forums
— Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook or email
— Become a Twins Daily Caretaker
Recommended Comments
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.