Twins Future Position Analysis: Relief Pitching

I just cannot feel good about this group until I see how they perform and are arranged for use.   The demand for relief pitching is the highest ever - can this group meet that demand?  It does not look like a shut down group to me. 

Grammar nitpick - I always thought it was relief corps - like the press corps or Marine corps.

I would keep Dobber in the starter role. He does not look comfortable nor performs well as a reliever.

Bullpens are volatile from year to year, and really from week to week.  Very few guys are lights out all the time and really it comes down to when they pitch bad and how long, and how bad it is.  I believe you need a good pen, but I also believe it is hard to project how people will do in the pen.  Normally failed starters will do well in the pen.  Unless you are a huge velo guy right away, it is bad to be slotted as a pen guy once you join organization.  

It's a sad commentary when this lackluster pen looks solid compared to the rotation.  At least the FO has a valid excuse:  why pay money for relievers when the rotation is so bad!

LOL! You didn't tell me there was going to be mathematics involved. 

German you stated his strikeouts and innings pitched. Cruz you stated as a percentage. I did a quick analysis and German's percentage is just less than TWO an inning! I'll drop that on my buddy Troy. He likes to talk Twins, Gophers, Wild and Vikings sports. I also saw this in a few different spots throughout the article. Ahhhhhh math! LOL!

Another interesting stat would be mph on the gun. I'm not sure if you are privy to that info, but always fun to know who has "hot mass gas to pass 100 mph!" 

Nice article thank you. 

I don't have a lot of confidence in Stashek or Thorpe. When I did roster projection had Twins adding 2 mid level relief pitchers, still hoping for one. There are a few in minors that may break through to MLB this year. Would like to see Twins break starters in MLB bullpen from minors. May see a more non-traditional approach to one or two starting spots-like 3 inning opener followed by 2-3 inning long reliever this year from Twins.

Thanks for the update, Cody.  If the Twins are going to be competitive, they will need a strong pen.  On the surface, this group could be that, especially if they find the next Wisler from among that 'on the farm' group.  Still would like to see them go out and sign someone good, knowing that someone good last year might be not so good this year.  But in the end, a lot is going to depend on Rogers' finger, Alcala taking that final step and Moran's changeup.  Should all three of those results be positive, the pen could be very good.

Have been as big a fan of Thorpe as you will find on this site.  But after the last two years, his star is tarnished in my eyes.  Would love for him to show up in spring training and be that better than average starter he appeared destined to become back when he was 17 or 18.  Perhaps the best return for the Twins would be if they got some value from him together with another prospect in an Odorizzi like trade.

The Twins could potentially have a really good bullpen this year. Rogers is a key in my view. Thielbar and Moran are fair from the left side as is Duffey from the right side. Jorge Alcala is ready to blossom into a bonafide pitcher to be counted on in tough situations. That is five decent pitchers. From there, I expect some young arms to emerge, primarily Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax,  and possibly Joe Ryan. It would be nice to see Ryan hold a starting role but he may be better in relief. I'm not worried about the Twins relief squad, but a poor recovery from Rogers changes plenty. The starting staff? ... oh boy.

6 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Grammar nitpick - I always thought it was relief corps - like the press corps or Marine corps.

It is more likely that it was poor proofreading  rather than grammar with an auto correct to blame 

Good article. I feel OK about the pen. In fact I am somewhat optimistic that the Twins pen will be in the top 5 in MBL........the American League...........the AL Central.

I don't remember the Twins bullpen being the problem during the second half of last season.  If our bullpen is better than average and we have enough to close out close games and hold leads more than average then I will be happy.  I hope we do go out and sign a name reliever for the pen, but I also think we are close to good enough with what we have.  I am more worried about the rotation at this point.  I think we just need a good SS and a bullpen arm and 2 starting pitchers and we should be ok.  maybe an 85 win team with potential for more depending on the young guys.

For the 2022 bullpen I am making ONE assumption: the medical experts are correct and the durable Rogers will be healthy. 

After that, I'm cautiously optimistic to potentially very optimistic. 

A couple rapid-fire thoughts:

Duffey has been great, struggled a bit, adjusted, and was fine again. Lot of tread left.

Thielbar has been great, had a problem with inherited runners early, figured it out.

Alcala has EVERYTHING you want and endured growing pains to finish STRONG. 

I like and am OK with this base. I am WAY MORE than OK if the Twins make a decent investment in ONE proven FA arm still available. And there are a number of arms available from solid to very good years to potential bounce back years. Just, please, make one smart choice/addition here.

We're going to need 12-15 arms at some point, no matter the rotation. Thorpe may be done as a SP, but could he make it, healthy, as a BP option? Could he force Moran to StPaul to begin the season? If not, he could be AAA depth because I'm not sure anyone claims him. And IMO, Moran is not "if", he's a "when". His FB and slider play, and the change is outstanding.  Nice to have Coulombe back on a milb deal. Smeltzer is still around as a depth/bounce back option.

There is a real chance the Twins could have 3 good to decent LH available all season. But we need more depth.

I may be wrong, but I can't ignore what Stashak did when healthy. He's an easy drop and milb re-sign in a roster crunch, but he flashed when healthy. Garza came from a good system but was made available. Why? He sure looked promising in 18 games. Cotton was a former top SP prospect who ran in to injury problems. But he raked at AAA for Texas, stunk when he came up, but was almost unhittable his last month or so. Is he a sleeper?

Cano, Mason, and others could suddenly step up. And we may need them. Jax could be a pen surprise. As could Gore and Vallimont. 

I think there is depth and options to sort through and rotate and build a good to great pen. But I feel a whole lot better if we bring on at least that ONE quality, experienced arm, whoever that may be.

It seems to be more of a numbers game and we have a lot of possible numbers.  For the pitching staff I always felt 2022 was going to be a find out what we have year.  And hope a lot it works out.  Then fill the holes next off season.

Correct me if you think I am wrong here, but I see 3 pitchers on that list that have proven themselves as major league worthy over multiple seasons, a bunch of borderline AAA/major league guys, and 4 waiver pickups.  Even if this team had a solid starting rotation this pen would have to give us pause if we are hoping to compete in '22, and we don't have a rotation at all, much less a solid one.  Looking up and down the 40 man roster I see a tryout camp much more than I see a contending major league club.  Anything can happen, and I hope for the best, but I also think if this FO was going to get pitching ready to compete this year, they would have already done it. 

Oh, and if this is a transition year to try to compete in '23, Rogers and Duffey are free agents at the end of the year, so expect some trades if we are out of it in July.  That is, of course, if we are playing in July.

Too bad that we are left with "if" and "maybe" pitchers.  As currently constructed, this is not a major league pitching staff relievers and especially starting staff.  Are people going to be happy with 90 losses and poor and boring baseball?  

16 hours ago, Prince William said:

It is more likely that it was poor proofreading  rather than grammar with an auto correct to blame 

Or possibly the core of the corps.

16 hours ago, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good article. I feel OK about the pen. In fact I am somewhat optimistic that the Twins pen will be in the top 5 in MBL........the American League...........the AL Central.

What is the MBL? Marine Biological Labs, LLC ?

17 hours ago, Prince William said:

It is more likely that it was poor proofreading  rather than grammar with an auto correct to blame 

True, but if you think about it and if we're talking about the key members of the relief corps we would indeed be talking about the core of the corps.

In any case, a good write-up, Cody.

IMO a good long relief corps is the key for success in both the rotation and high leverage short relief. Last year long relief was very poorly managed, which I believe was one of the main reason why we did so poorly. This season, it has been suggested that we'll go with a  piggy-back system using openers and long relief. We'll need a lot of good long relief arms, consisting of not quite SPs that are veterans & rotating AAAA. It'll be a good way to see what we have, we'll play who's hot. There'll be some we'll keep and others we'll dump. It'll be very interesting

IDK about this year but beyond 2022 I suspect at least a couple of our SP prospects are going to have a significant role in the BP.  Who knows, Jax might be good in the BP.  I think Valimont is best suited to be a RP.  I am hoping Strotman finds the  command necessary to be a SP but he might be a RP.  The big one is obviously Duran.  I sure hope he is a front of the rotation SP but if not he might be a shut down RP.

I also think we are going to see fewer SP and RPs in traditional roles.  There are going to be more 2, 3, and 4 inning pitchers.  

10 hours ago, Mark G said:

Correct me if you think I am wrong here, but I see 3 pitchers on that list that have proven themselves as major league worthy over multiple seasons, a bunch of borderline AAA/major league guys, and 4 waiver pickups.  Even if this team had a solid starting rotation this pen would have to give us pause if we are hoping to compete in '22, and we don't have a rotation at all, much less a solid one.  Looking up and down the 40 man roster I see a tryout camp much more than I see a contending major league club.  Anything can happen, and I hope for the best, but I also think if this FO was going to get pitching ready to compete this year, they would have already done it. 

Oh, and if this is a transition year to try to compete in '23, Rogers and Duffey are free agents at the end of the year, so expect some trades if we are out of it in July.  That is, of course, if we are playing in July.

Maybe a bit harsh, but...also the way modern bullpens are constructed. You try to have 3-4 guys that form your core, that you think will be reliable for at least one more season, a couple of waiver pickups, and then a couple of young guys from your minor league system that look like they might be ready to contribute and develop into the next core guys.

Rogers is a quality pitcher that even in a down year is very good, especially against lefties. Duffey was still very effective last season, just not dominant like the previous two years, and looks like a guy you can count on as a righty option. Thielbar has always been effective when he's been healthy and available, and he's been good as well the last two seasons. Alcala is a guy on the rise who is death against righties and maybe starting to figure out how to survive against lefties. A reasonable core to work with. Then you have guys from the system like Moran & Stashak and a few waiver guys like Garza & Cotton (both of whom have had success in MLB getting guys out in the bullpen) and you work from there.

Working it this way, you can churn through guys that are ineffective until you find a combo that works, without getting stuck on a sunk cost fallacy. Teams overpay for supposed "shut-down" pitchers and "proven closers" who are really just decent relievers coming off a good year or getting put in a particular role. ChiSox are now paying Liam Hendriks $27M for the next two seasons when he's only been a dominant reliever since turning 30. If he stays dominant for these next two years, then great...but if he goes back to being the guy that he was his first 4 years as a full-time reliever, then he's drastically overpaid...and there aren't that many relievers who dominate for 5 years in a row in their 30's.

The Twins approach to putting together a bullpen is a pretty good one, overall. And it should keep us from ever doing anything like trading Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps ever again.

Twins relievers had a 3.45 ERA in August & September, and this was after they lost Rogers to injury and traded Robles to Boston. I think roles were figured out and the players made the necessary adjustments to be successful going forward. Does this mean continued success? Possibly not, but I think the BP is not of concern on the level of SP, SS and to a lesser extent, LF.

With all the young arms, I would love for the Twins to have a tandem of, say, Thorpe and Jax able to pitch 2-3 innings up to every other day (once thru an orer at least) as there are so manya rms that will have a 100 pitch limit or five innings, which ever comes first.

If, and that is ONE BIG IF, the Twins look like a competitive team, they need a bonifide closer who can work continuous days and get the job done. Flat out period. They have wo fine setup men in Duffey and Rogers. They have Thielbar (and Coulombe) as an additional lefty. Can Stashak come back? Is Garza the eal thing? Who is Cotton?

Moran is a hottie. But do you start him at AAA. This was a decision I felt the Twins blew bigtime in 2021. You bring the guy up to face major league pitching. If he stinks, he can go down and work and then come back up. Why the Twins felt the need to drag out Barraclough, Law, Albers, Gibault, Vincent and others in a losing battle. Hey, I thought Minaya would at least stick, but who knows how the minds work at Target Field.

The Twins will have some 40-man roster worries. If they move in Cano, they have to keep him unless he totally stinks. Names like Hamilton, Sammons, Mason, Smeltzer can get a chance and be jettisoned....forever....if they turn bad. But you have to have a swinging door roster spot.

Oh, I forgot Alcala. I think the guy has closer potential. If the Twins are in a rebuild, I would work him into the role. If not, he is another flame arm for set-up duties.

You need a real closer.

Left and righty setup guys. 

A long relief pitcher, luxury if you can have two who aren't the same.

Great if you have a ground ball pitcher and can afford a spot.

Nice if you have pitchers that throw strikes rather than walk batters. You can match them up against power bats and trust they will win the battle.

A real luxury is having a good "bad fly ball" pitcher.

And utilize that light rail service between Target Field and St. Paul Saints land. Only the price of a train ticket and the guy can still  sleep in his regular bed at nite.

Great insights Cody!  There are lots of arms in our system that seem to have long term MLB potential and your article does a great job painting the picture.  It also reinforces to me how incredibly hard it is to be an MLB pitcher.  I read somewhere that only 20,000 players have ever appeared in the MLB in the past 150 years, and half of those are pitchers.  And nearly half of the 10,000 pitchers have around 50 innings or less.  We have to rely on our farm system to develop a couple of MLB ready arms per year to fill out our staff.  It will be fun to see which of the names you include here can be hurling at Target Field!

On 12/29/2021 at 7:22 AM, Whitey333 said:

Too bad that we are left with "if" and "maybe" pitchers.  As currently constructed, this is not a major league pitching staff relievers and especially starting staff.  Are people going to be happy with 90 losses and poor and boring baseball?  

Yeah yeah, we get it you think they are going to lose 90 games. If I had a dollar for every time you've said that this week I could buy a beer at Target Field.

On 12/28/2021 at 4:20 PM, tarheeltwinsfan said:

Good article. I feel OK about the pen. In fact I am somewhat optimistic that the Twins pen will be in the top 5 in MBL........the American League...........the AL Central.

Well… I suspect that they will get plenty of chances to test their skills.

On 12/29/2021 at 4:06 PM, Rosterman said:

If, and that is ONE BIG IF, the Twins look like a competitive team, they need a bonifide closer who can work continuous days and get the job done. Flat out period. They have wo fine setup men in Duffey and Rogers. They have Thielbar (and Coulombe) as an additional lefty. Can Stashak come back? Is Garza the real thing? Who is Cotton?

 

Do we, though? I just think the position of "closer" is overrated. It's functionally "pitches the 9th inning" in the land of the equally overrated save stat, and I'd much rather have a bullpen where you put your best guy out there against the opposing team's best hitters late in the game, rather than lose the game in the 7th because you had a lesser pitcher take on the top of a team's lineup while you were saving the closer for the 9th. Get them out in the 7th and you might not have to face them again for the rest of the game.

I'd rather mix & match with our best 2-3 pitchers in the back end of the bullpen as lockdown guys against the best hitters and firemen to snuff out a rally than save them to pitch the 9th. 

I would like to add one more RHP to the mix if possible, a guy who really throws big time heat...but I'm not unhappy with where the bullpen stands right now. And I'd much rather they spent the rest of the budget on starting pitching and shortstop than handing out a bunch of $4-5M contracts to relievers who are probably a coin flip