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Earlier this week, we set the bar for where the Twins front office needs to aim in reinforcing the rotation: the Sonny Gray Threshold. In the Offseason Handbook, we highlighted eight free agents who arguably fall above that threshold – No. 1 caliber starters who would slot above Gray.
The Twins certainly have the financial flexibility to pursue one of those arms if Carlos Correa isn't re-signed, but still, we have to acknowledge that they've never waded into that deepest end of the SP pool before. Based on their track record, it's much more likely this front office shops at the next tier, which isn't the worst news because there is some quality to be found and maybe even some decent values.
These are the most likely free agent targets for the Twins. None would be particularly exciting as a primary addition for the rotation, but they are all potential playoff starters, and failing to acquire someone AT LEAST at this level would be downright unacceptable.
1. José Quintana, LHP
Former Team: Cardinals
Age: 34
The cutoff for my "Sonny Gray Threshold" was in between Martín Peréz, the last player profiled in my Handbook story, and Quintana, the first player profiled here. Admittedly, it's a very thin line, because these are both previously underwhelming veteran left-handers coming off breakthrough seasons where they pitched like legitimate No. 1 starters, despite unimpressive K-rates. I'm less high on Quintana – who posted a fantastic 2.93 ERA and 2.99 FIP in 32 starts for the Pirates and Cardinals – because he's a few years older (turning 34 in January) and threw 30 fewer innings. You'd be buying high on either southpaw, but in both cases, there's no knocking the 2022 performance.
- Estimated Contract: 3 years, $45 million
2. Noah Syndergaard, RHP
Former Team: Phillies
Age: 30
I'll be fascinated to see how Syndergaard's market takes shape. He's got the big name, the mighty aura, the flashy track record. He also pitched two total innings between 2020 and '21, and in his return to action last year he was ... Thor Lite. The fastball velo was way down, along with the strikeouts. He posted a 3.94 ERA and 3.83 FIP in 134.2 IP between the Angels and Phillies. Even in this lesser form, Syndergaard was still solid, but if you're signing him it's probably based on the belief that his velocity and dominance will return. At this point that's a leap of faith.
- Estimated Contract: 3 years, $51 million
3. Taijuan Walker, RHP
Former Team: Mets
Age: 30
There were rumblings that the Twins were close to signing Walker ahead of the 2020 season, banking on a return to form for the former top prospect who missed nearly all of 2018-19. No deal ended up materializing, but their instinct was right: Walker has stayed mostly healthy in three seasons since, posting a 3.80 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. He has a player option but is sure to opt out in search of a multi-year deal coming off a strong season. He's one of the youngest players on this list.
- Estimated Contract: 4 years, $52 million
4. Kodai Senga, RHP
Former Team: Fukuoka Softbank Hawks (Japan)
Age: 30
One of the biggest pitching stars in Japan is reportedly set to opt out of his contract and pursue a deal in the majors. Senga has been excellent in NPB, where he posted a pristine 1.89 ERA last year with 159 strikeouts and seven home runs allowed in 148 innings. There is obviously uncertainty about how his game will translate to MLB. With a mid-90s fastball accompanied by unremarkable secondary stuff, he's definitely not on the Masahiro Tanaka or Yu Darvish tier, but Senga could be a quality #2 type. A big risk but a potentially intriguing one.
- Estimated Contract: 4 years, $50 million
5. Sean Manaea, LHP
Former Team: Padres
Age: 31
He was the apple of many a Twins fan's eye last offseason, when the Athletics were known to be dangling him. Manaea ended up going to the San Diego, and didn't have a very good season: 158 IP, 4.96 ERA, 4.53 FIP, 29 HR allowed. His stock is down, but there's a reason he was in demand to begin with: Manaea has consistently been a quality performer while at times flashing top-of-rotation upside. Even in his disappointing 2022 he still averaged about a strike out per inning.
- Estimated Contract: 3 years, $48 million
6. Michael Wacha, RHP
Former Team: Red Sox
Age: 31
Once a promising young 17-game winner for the Cardinals, Wacha's career was derailed in his late 20s to the point where he had to take a one-year make-good deal with the Red Sox last offseason. He made good indeed, going 11-2 with a 3.32 ERA in 127.1 IP, but the underlying metrics weren't that impressive and Wacha's prior recent track record was brutal (5.11 ERA in 2019-21). There's a lot of risk in gambling on him, and I'm not sure how much reward.
- Estimated Contract: 3 years, $45 million
7. Jameson Taillon, RHP
Former Team: Yankees
Age: 31
When they acquired Taillon from the Pirates, the Yankees hoped to emulate what Houston did with Gerrit Cole: extract an underperforming former top draft pick from Pittsburgh's rotation and unlock his true potential. That didn't happen. Taillon was much more good than great during two seasons in the Bronx, posting a 4.08 ERA in 322 innings – translating to a 100 ERA+ that rates him as exactly average. That said, he's been pretty durable and his 4.72 K/BB ratio in 2022 is appealing.
- Contract Estimate: 3 years, $36 million
8. Zach Eflin, RHP
Former Team: Phillies
Age: 28
Advanced metrics have always viewed Eflin more favorably than his core results, which amount to a 4.49 ERA in about 650 career innings. He has very good control but isn't dominant, with middling fastball speeds and strikeout rates that belie his big 6-foot-6 frame. I'd describe him as the very definition of a mid-rotation starter, but a fairly reliable one at that. His biggest selling point perhaps is his age – still only 28 as of next Opening Day.
- Estimated Contract: 3 years, $36 million
9. Andrew Heaney, LHP
Former Team: Dodgers
Age: 31
Much like with Tyler Anderson, the Dodgers gambled on Heaney with a one-year deal, believing that the left-hander had much more ability in him than the sub-par numbers showed. Much like with Anderson, that gamble paid off in a big way, as Heaney dominated to the tune of a 3.10 ERA and 13.6 K/9 rate. The only reason he's not alongside Anderson on this list is that he simply didn't have the volume – only 73 innings thrown in 14 appearances (12 starts) due to injuries. His preceding track record is also much uglier than Anderson's. Still, Heaney finally realized his frontline stuff this year and offers tantalizing upside.
- Estimated Contract: 2 years, $28 million
10. Drew Smyly, LHP
Former Team: Cubs
Age: 33
The veteran lefty lost his entire 2017-18 seasons to injury, and has since bounced around a whole bunch: from Texas to Philly to San Francisco to Atlanta to Chicago, all within a span of four years. So many teams have seen promise in his undeniably intriguing stuff from the left side but no one's been able to fully unlock his top performance over an extended period. The Cubs came as close as anyone this past season, where he had a 3.47 ERA over 106.1 IP, but he posted a career-low K-rate and home runs continued to haunt him (he's allowed 77 in 373.1 IP since 2019). He does have a mutual option with Chicago although those rarely seem to get activated.
- Estimated Contract: 2 years, $18 million
11. Ross Stripling, RHP
Former Team: Blue Jays
Age: 33
Stripling is, in many ways, a prototype pitcher for this front office: a hybrid pitcher who's consistently phased between starting and relieving, while remaining mostly successful in both roles: he has a 3.86 career ERA as a starter, 3.51 as a reliever. The right-hander is coming off a season where he won 10 games and posted a 3.01 ERA in 134.1 IP for Toronto, so he'll probably be looked at as more of a starter with swingman qualities.
- Estimated Contract: 2 years, $18 million
12. Jake Odorizzi, RHP
Former Team: Braves
Age: 33
Odorizzi once again heads into free agency on a sour note. Following a strong first half in Houston, he was traded to Atlanta, where he posted a 5.24 ERA in 46.1 IP and dealt with arm fatigue, then struggled in one postseason appearance. Despite the flat finish, he'll still probably turn down his $6.5 million player option in search of a somewhat larger payday. But much like after his 2020 season, which was ravaged to the core by injuries, Odo won't be in a position to command a ton. He projects are more of back-of-rotation starter at this point but Twins fans have seen him at his best; maybe it's still in there somewhere.
- Estimated Contract: 2 years, $14 million
13. Corey Kluber, RHP
Former Team: Rays
Age: 36
We probably need to divorce ourselves from the idea that the two-time Cy Young winner will ever regain his previous form. But that doesn't mean he can't be, or hasn't been, effective in this reduced state. He posted a 4.34 ERA and 3.57 FIP in 164 innings for Tampa in 2022. While he no longer has the stuff to blow people away, with a fastball that's dropped to the high 80s, he still gets people to chase his slider. And one strength that HAS returned is his elite control – he led the league in BB/9 this year, as he did in 2017 and 2018.
- Estimated Contract: 1 year, $12 million
14. Kyle Gibson. RHP
Former Team: Phillies
Age: 35
Another former Twin and former All-Star whose stock is down. Gibson had a career year in 2021, posting a 3.75 ERA and 3.0 fWAR in 182 innings, but the past season was more of a struggle: 5.05 ERA, 1.8 fWAR in 167.2 IP. He just turned 35 and it's hard to see much upside left, but Gibson has been durable (29-plus starts in every non-pandemic year since 2017) and steadily solid. He falls well short of the Sonny Gray Threshold but can't be ignored as an option given the familiarity and likelihood of a short-term deal.
- Estimated Contract: 1 year, $8 million
15. Wade Miley, LHP
Former Team: Cubs
Age: 36
The well-traveled veteran was limited to just 37 innings in 2022 due to elbow inflammation and a shoulder strain. After missing most of the season, he came back and pitched pretty well in September, as if to make a statement about his readiness to rebound next year. Miley has consistently pitched well when on the mound, and he'll probably be available for an incentive-laden one-year deal, which is up Minnesota's alley. But his age combined with two scary arm issues this past season pose a lot of risk for a team that's trying to steer toward dependability.
- Estimated Contract: 1 year, $5 million
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