Aerodeliria

Last June marked the 10-year anniversary of the 2012 MLB Draft, led by the 1-2 punch of Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton at the top. A decade later, these former high school superstars have followed very different paths to the same destination: featuring as twin faces of the Twins franchise, now and going forward. 
With this being the case, it's fascinating to look back at how that draft played out, and to compare the career paths of other players taken in the top 10 who could've been in play for the Astros and Twins when they selected first and second overall.
Controversy at the Top
Although Correa and Buxton were viewed as two of the best high school talents to enter the draft in a long time, neither was the trendy top pick in mocks and projections. No, that would be Stanford right-hander Mark Appel, who was viewed as a surefire frontline starter with a quick path to the majors. 
Leading up to the draft, Appel reportedly turned down a $6 million offer from the Astros, who possessed the number one pick. Houston turned their attention elsewhere, and so did the Twins – selecting second – and several other teams, as we'll see.
The Appel dynamic is important to keep in mind as we run back through the top 10, pick by pick. In another scenario where the right-hander simply accepted the offer from his hometown team, rather than betting on himself and returning to Stanford, things could have played out very differently. Alas ...
#1 Pick: Carlos Correa, SS – Astros
The Astros decided to go with the 17-year-old prep phenom from Puerto Rico. Correa had reportedly "blown away" Houston's evaluators during pre-draft workouts, convincing them he was special enough to justify taking in front of the kid getting Bo Jackson comps out of Baxley, GA.
"They watched a 6-foot-3, 190-pound shortstop with staggering skills," wrote Peter Gammons at the time. "Soft hands. Incredibly lithe feet, which allows him to maintain uncanny balance in his powerful swing and always catch grounders in position to throw." 
It's unclear whether the Astros actually thought Correa was a better talent than Buxton, because their decision was also motivated by finances: signing the shortstop under-slot at $4.8 million enabled them to harvest their savings and lure prep pitcher Lance McCullers away from a college scholarship with a big bonus at 41st overall. (The Twins used a very similar strategy five years later, with Royce Lewis and Blayne Enlow.)
The rest, as they say, is history. Correa dominated the minors and rose in the top prospect rankings, topping out at #3 on MLB.com's list in 2015 before he broke through to the majors and won Rookie of the Year. 
The two names ahead of him in the top prospect ranks at that time? Number two Kris Bryant, and number one ...
#2 Pick: Byron Buxton, OF – Twins
Buxton was widely viewed as the best prospect in the draft, so the Twins were thrilled to land him with the second pick. They paid a premium to sign him away from the University of Georgia, with Buxton's $6 million bonus easily topping any other player in this draft (no one else even got $5 million) and beating Joe Mauer's franchise record.
Buxton went on to do what was optimistically expected of him: he quickly became the consensus top prospect in the minors, reached the big leagues three years after being drafted (in fact, he debuted in the same week as Correa), and developed into one of MLB's preeminent stars – albeit with a bit more of a learning curve and a lot more injury hiccups.
It's interesting now to wonder what the Twins would've done if Houston followed the more straightforward route by drafting Buxton. Would they have taken Correa? That seems likely. In a retrospective on the leadup to the 2012 draft for The Athletic, Aaron Gleeman wrote about how dazzled the Twins were by Correa during a workout at Target Field.
"Minnesota’s brain trust of general manager Terry Ryan, vice president of player personnel Mike Radcliff and scouting director Deron Johnson had Correa and Buxton as the top two prospects on their board, going back and forth on who should hold the top spot," Gleeman shared. 
How fortuitous to 10 years later have both locked up long-term.
#3 Pick: Mike Zunino, C – Mariners
The top college hitter in the draft was a big slugging catcher out of the University of Florida. Zunino was the best player on a Gators team that reached three straight College World Series. The Mariners signed him to a $4 million bonus, with the hopes that his advanced bat would rise quickly. 
It did – Zunino reached the majors one year after being drafted – but he wasn't destined for the same kind of star status as Correa and Buxton. The catcher has had a relatively successful big-league career, accruing 850 games played over 10 seasons, but didn't quite turn into the two-stud Seattle envisioned.
Zunino signed a free agent deal with the Guardians in December so we'll be seeing plenty of him in 2023.
#4 Pick: Kevin Gausman, RHP – Orioles
With arguably the top three position players off the board, the Orioles set their sights on trying to nab the best pitcher in the draft. While they might have felt it was Appel, Baltimore wasn't looking to get involved in those hardball negotiations so instead they were left to choose between two standout collegiate arms: Gausman out of LSU or Kyle Zimmer out of the University of San Francisco. They made the right choice, albeit not one that would end up benefiting their franchise a ton.
Gausman quickly emerged as a top prospect, and was in the big leagues a year later at age 22. From there it took the righty a very long time to blossom into the frontline starter he would eventually become. He spent five mostly average years in Baltimore, then jumped around to Atlanta and Cincinnati before ending up in San Francisco where he finally turned the corner.
He parlayed a breakout season in 2021 into a $110 million contract with the Blue Jays, and made good on the first year by leading the AL in FIP and K/BB ratio. 
Gausman was the top pitcher selected in the 2012 draft, and eventually fulfilled his promise, but not until a decade later when he was 30. I think that perspective is important to keep in mind for Twins fans underwhelmed by the fruits of this current front office's pitching development efforts through seven years. It takes time.
#5 Pick: Kyle Zimmer, RHP – Royals
Of course, sometimes it just doesn't take at all. Zimmer emerged at USF as a strikeout machine with huge upside, convincing Kansas City to take him fifth overall, but struggled with injuries and control issues in the minors. 
His big K-rates kept him continually on the prospect radar, but it never really materialized in the majors for Zimmer. He made 83 appearances for the Royals from 2019 through 2021 – all but three in relief – and posted a 5.19 ERA. 
Zimmer is still only 31 so it's not unthinkable he could resurface, but that seems unlikely at this point. He was released from a minor-league contract by the Reds last summer after struggling in Triple-A, and is currently a free agent.
#6 Pick: Albert Almora, OF – Cubs
Almora is the type you often see drafted in the first round: a toolsy, athletic prep high schooler with big upside to dream on. He debuted at 22 and looked like he might be a real find early on, but Almora's bat went the wrong way as poor plate discipline tanked his offensive game. (Another familiar story with this player profile.) Since 2019 he has slashed .219/.265/.344 for a 61 OPS+.
He's still been hanging around as a glove-only outfielder, and played 64 games for the Reds last year in that capacity. He went unclaimed on waivers in September and is currently a free agent. 
#7 Pick: Max Fried, LHP – Padres
Picking high school pitchers at the top of the MLB draft is hazardous, as the Twins would learn a year later with Kohl Stewart. Rarely does the decision work out as well as it did with Fried, but when it does, you can see why teams are willing to take the gamble.
Fried, a California high school standout committed to UCLA, was wooed away by San Diego's $3 million signing bonus. He quickly emerged as a top prospect and was in the majors by 23 despite losing a year to Tommy John surgery. 
The Padres traded Fried as a prospect, headlining the package to acquire Justin Upton in 2014. They'd probably like to take that one back. Fried has emerged in his late 20s as a bona fide ace in the Braves rotation, and finished runner-up for Cy Young last year.
#8 Pick: Mark Appel, RHP – Pirates
Finally, Appel's long fall reached an end, when the Pirates selected him eighth overall. It was quite the fiasco. Apparently Pittsburgh had never even gotten in touch with Appel or his family before the draft, which set negotiations off on a sour note. They never recovered. 
Appel reportedly turned down nearly $4 million, opting to return to Stanford as a senior and aim for a top-pick bonus in 2013. (It worked; he went first overall to Houston and signed for $6.35 million the next year.) Among the 60 players taken between the main and supplemental first rounds in 2012, Appel was the only player not to sign. 
His agent? Scott Boras, naturally.
Appel's career ended up being quite the odyssey. He flamed out in the minors and announced he was stepping away from baseball in 2018. Then, after several years off, Appel made a comeback in 2021, and worked his way back into the majors as a reliever for the Phillies last year.
A cool story, but little more. Appel threw 10 innings for Philly, experienced elbow inflammation, and then got DFA'ed after the season. He's a free agent hunting for another chance in Triple-A.
#9 Pick: Andrew Heaney, LHP – Marlins
Drafted out of Oklahoma State University after a stellar junior season, Heaney became another example of how long it can take for things to come together with a pitching prospect. He established himself as an elite prospect and reached the big leagues at age 23, but Heaney endured a lengthy battle with the MLB learning curve. 
From 2014 through 2021, a stretch of eight seasons spent mostly with the Angels, Heaney posted a 4.72 ERA and 4.45 FIP as one of the league's most homer-prone starters. His big strikeout rates were never backed by truly outstanding results. 
Last year, the Dodgers signed him to a cheap one-year deal, exercised careful usage with short outings (a Twins-like course of action, I will note), and extracted new levels of success. Heaney enjoyed a rejuvenated market this offseason, signing a two-year, $25 million deal with an opt out.
#10 Pick: David Dahl, OF – Rockies
Dahl has had a bit of a Buxton-like career, albeit to a different extreme. Drafted out of an Alabama high school, he got off to a fast start in the minors and climbed the prospect charts. But the sweet-swinging lefty had his own injury derailments along the way, including a torn hamstring in 2013 and a spleen laceration suffered on a collision in 2015, along with rib, back, ankle, foot, and shoulder issues.
He's occasionally shown glimpses of his true potential, namely in 2019 when he batted .302 and made the All-Star team. But that season ended after 100 games, which remains the most he's played in an MLB season. He didn't play in the majors last year and is now on a minor-league deal with San Diego. He's still only 28 but Dahl's major-league future is on life support.
And there you have it. The 2012 draft included some other gems beyond the top 10, including Lucas Giolito (16th overall), Corey Seager (18th), Jose Berrios (32nd) and newly minted Twin Joey Gallo (39th).
But if the two teams at the top, Houston and Minnesota, could do it all over again, they probably wouldn't change a thing – as illustrated by Keith Law making the same choices when he redrafted the 2012 MLB Draft at The Athletic.
Now, through a shocking twist of fate, the Twins will be building around both of those top two players for the next six years at least.

Last offseason, the Twins made the decision to move Jorge Polanco to second base. They wanted better defense at the shortstop position. With that in mind, the Twins signed Andrelton Simmons to a one-year deal. It didn’t go well. While Simmons provided the solid defense, he did very little with the bat. His .558 OPS was over .100 lower than it had been in all but one of his previous nine MLB seasons. His previous low was .617 in 2014. Even after his rough 2021 season, his career OPS of .683 should make the Twins consider bringing him back on a much lower contract, maybe in the $3 million range. 

courtesy Byron Buxton Instagram 
However, there was a shortstop that became available due to Friday’s roster transactions. One would be a player returning to the organization that he spent nearly a decade in and made his big-league debut with. Let’s discuss both, and then in the comments you can tell me if this player should be considered. 
But before that, I want to point out that my personal opinion is that the Twins need to spend available dollars this offseason on pitching. So while I would love to see the Twins grab one of those big-name, big-dollar free agent shortstops, I’m going to assume that they won’t and that they will spend big on pitching. (maybe not a fair assumption, but one that I will go with for this article.)
Niko Goodrum
According to MLB Trade Rumors, Niko Goodrum was projected to make $2.9 million in 2022 through arbitration. He wasn’t going to get that coming off of an injury-plagued 2021 season in which he hit just .214/.292/.359 (.651) with 11 doubles and nine home runs. He had several stints on the Injured List with calf and groin injuries. 
In the Covid-shortened 2020 season, he hit just .184/.263/.335 (.598) with seven doubles and five home runs. These two seasons have been rough for Goodrum offensively, no doubt, but still 10-20% better than what Simmons provided in 2021. 
That’s obviously a low bar. So why would I personally be interested in bringing Goodrum back to the organization where he debuted in 2017 and went 1-for-17 (.059) in September. 
He signed with the Tigers and had two really strong seasons. In 2018, he hit .245/.315/.432 (.749) with 29 doubles and 16 homers. In 2019, he hit .248/.322/.421 (.743) with 27 doubles, five triples and 12 homers. He stole 12 bases in 2018 and 2019, and 14 bases in 2021. 
Goodrum will turn 30 early in spring training 2022. While the upside may be somewhat limited and include a lot of swing-and more,, there is also great athleticism, tools, speed and power with Goodrum.
The Twins drafted and signed Cartier “Niko” Goodrum out of high school in Georgia in 2010. Jorge Polanco had signed a year earlier. The two climbed up the organization ladder together. Goodrum played mostly shortstop while Polanco played shortstop. Could the keystone combination exist again?
In 2020, Goodrum was a finalist for an AL Gold Glove at shortstop. He is a natural shortstop with good range and a strong arm. If the Twins signed him and told him to prepare to compete for the team’s starting shortstop job, he might be a terrific choice. Hey, if the other choices right now include a return of Simmons, then I would certainly support giving Goodrum a shot. 
What would it cost? I would think a one-year, $1.5 to $2.0 million would do it, especially if he was given the opportunity to start most days at shortstop. If he’s given an opportunity to start most every day at shortstop, it’s likely he would just want a one year deal, hope it goes well, and enter free agency again after the 2022 season when it isn’t the greatest free agent shortstop class ever. 
Because of the dollars, it would be a low-risk deal. Because of his defense, speed and power potential, there is a chance for reward. If it doesn’t go well, he can finish the year as a utility player, capable of playing seven positions (yes, all better than Willians Astudillo). If Royce Lewis is deemed ready-to-go sometime in 2021, Goodrum can become a utility player.  
In addition, Goodrum might have interest in a return because he has several  former teammates from his minor league days with the. He played over his years with Byron Buxton, Miguel Sano, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Mitch Garver, Tyler Duffey, Taylor Rogers, and Tommy Watkins was a coach and manager.
An added bonus is that Goodrum has always been great in the community, going back to his Twins days when he was a Harmon Killebrew Community Service Award recipient in 2013 with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. 
Many times the concept of “Bring Back the Gang” gets a negative connotation. Sometimes that is fair. Other times, it just makes sense. If healthy, Niko Goodrum can provide really good defense at shortstop, some power at the plate and speed. Yes, that comes with some injury risk and a lot of strikeouts. But at the price tag, it is certainly worth strong consideration. 
So what do you think? Should the Twins consider a reunion with Niko Goodrum?
 

Box Score
Gant: 4 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 3 K
Home Runs: Astudillo (7)
Bottom 3 WPA: Gant -.193, Garcia -.093, Arraez -.090
Win Probability Chart (via Fangraphs)

Pitching has been the downfall for the Minnesota Twins in 2021, and pitching was their downfall again on Thursday night. The pitching didn’t waste anytime letting the Twins down at Fenway park on Thursday as John Gant was far from sharp.
The scoring got started early for the Red Sox, when Bobby Dalbec cashed in on back-to-back walks from John Gant with a three-run blast to give Boston an early 3-0 lead. The Red Sox then cashed in another run off of Gant in the 3rd inning with an RBI single off the right handed bat of Alex Verdugo.
In total, Gant only gave the Twins four innings while allowing four earned runs, struggling with command all night to the tune of three walks. His lack of distance turned the game over to the bullpen early, which has been a bad thing all night, and was again a bad thing.
After Kyle Barraclough allowed a run in the 5th inning, things completely unraveled for the Twins’ bullpen. In the 6th inning, Edgar Garcia allowed three hits, two walks, hit a batter and threw one wild pitch. He was charged with six runs, highlighted by a home run by Rafael Devers to give the Red Sox their 10th run.
The Red Sox tacked on two more runs in the 7th inning off of Edgar Garcia when Bobby Dalbec hit his second home run, this time of the two-run variety.
While the Red Sox offense was on fire all night, the Twins’ bats were largely silent, as they were only able to muster three hits on the night. The Twins cashed in their only runs of the night in the 5th inning when Willians Astudillo hit his seventh home run of the season over the Green Monster.
Immaculate Inning
In what was an otherwise run-of-the-mill blowout game, there was a noteworthy moment in the 3rd inning when Chris Sale threw the first immaculate inning at Fenway Park since Pedro Martinez in 2002.
Turtle Time
With a blowout game came another chance to watch Willians Astudillo on the mound in mop up duty. He was tasked with pitching for the Twins in the 8th inning. Astudillo didn’t allow a hit or a run in his inning of work.
Postgame Interview
What’s Next?
The Minnesota Twins will return home to kick off a three-game weekend series against the Milwaukee Brewers by sending Andrew Albers to the mound to face off against Brewers’ left-hander, Eric Lauer.
Bullpen Usage Chart

After an ugly series against the New York Yankees, Minnesota went to Boston with an opportunity to reset. In a game that the Twins put up 14 hits and scored nine runs, they still found themselves on the short side of the ledger. While this season has gone nothing as was expected, this is a reality that’s played out far too often.
The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman has consistently reported one of the most telling statistics tied to this club during the season.
Giving up five or fewer runs in a baseball game on a nightly basis should not be a difficult task. It also should not so consistently result in an inability to overcome. The turnover in their starting rotation has compounded Minnesota's ineptitude to pitch. The path forward looks even more gloomy with the uncertainty of Kenta Maeda’s health going into the offseason.
Offensively the Twins are no longer the Bomba Squad, but they’re hardly a lackluster unit. With 577 runs scored, they are 13th in baseball as a team. They are 13th and 14th in average and on-base percentage, respectively, while rounding out the top 10 in OPS. That’s not by any means world-beating numbers, but being middle-of-the-pack should present a substantially greater opportunity for competitiveness.
It’s on the bump where things go completely off the rails. The Twins are 26th in pitcher fWAR, and their 5.00 ERA is 27th in baseball. At 21.7%, they are striking out batters 23rd most across the sport, and there’s been little semblance of bright spots.
During the broadcast, Dick Bremer noted the Twins need to overhaul the relief corps in 2022 while Caleb Thielbar was on the mound. The formerly retired pitcher has been a pleasant surprise and was noted by the broadcaster as a near-lock for the unit in the year ahead. He then promptly gave up a two-run shot to Red Sox utility man Enrique Hernandez and Minnesota’s season predictability was as evident as ever.
Tonight Rocco Baldelli will turn to another bright spot, Bailey Ober, in hopes of getting back in the win column. Minnesota is an underdog at Fenway while the Red Sox are chasing down Tampa Bay, currently sitting 6.5 back in the AL East.
There have been bright spots for this club, but they haven’t been on the mound. Looking to salvage something over the last month, seeing performance from the bump would be a much-welcomed reality

With the Twins boasting one of the worst records in the league and continuing to affirm it with their play week after week, it's natural to start thinking about the big picture, and wondering what the path forward looks like. 
Has their championship window closed? Is a full-on rebuild in the offing? Or is this a bump in the road that calls for retooling on the fly and getting back after it in 2022?
I personally lean toward the latter, for a number of different reasons. Among them: these five key positive player trends all support the idea that Minnesota could move back into contention relatively quickly. 
1. Jorge Polanco Is Returning to Form
I'll admit: I was about ready to give up on Polanco as a standout player. In mid-April I openly wondered when Rocco Baldelli's faith in the infielder would be shaken, noting that Polanco continued to hit in critical lineup spots regularly despite woeful production over his past full season's worth of games. Incidentally, Baldelli's confidence DID appear to diminish around that time ... temporarily. 
In the latter half of April and into May, Polanco frequently found himself hitting in the bottom half of the lineup, which had almost never happened under Rocco's watch. We also learned somewhere around this time that Polanco was once again being bothered by his twice-repaired ankle. Things looked grim. But to his great credit, the 27-year-old started to find himself at the plate again. 
After finishing April with a miserable .555 OPS, Polanco raised that mark 150 points by slashing .253/.343/.494 in May. He's kept clicking in June, where he is thus far 8-for-24 with two doubles and a home run. Batted-ball data backs up the improved production; as Nash Walker points out, Polanco leads all second basemen in hard-hit rate since the start of May.
The ankle might still be barking, but Polanco is finding a way to battle through and get the job done. Right now he actually has a higher hard-hit rate, barrel rate, and average exit velocity than any prior season in his career. Dude is mashing.
He's restoring his status as a building-block type player, which is excellent news because Polanco remains under contract for at least the next two seasons, with club options for 2024 and '25.
#2. Taylor Rogers Is as Good as Ever
His frequent struggles in 2020, combined with the inherent volatility of relief pitchers, led plenty of us to wonder whether Rogers' days as a top-tier relief arm were over – to the extent that bringing him back in arbitration for $6 million was a subject of some debate. 
Am I pleased to say those debates look pretty silly now.
Shaking off his mediocre work in the short season, Rogers has been phenomenal here in 2021, posting a 2.57 ERA and 2.59 WHIP across 24 ⅓ frames. His 12.6 K/9 rate would be a career-high, as would his 12.3% swinging strike rate, and he ranks 18th among all MLB relievers in fWAR. Take a look at his Statcast measurements and all those bright red circles. 

Under team control for one more year after this, Rogers is proving he's someone the Twins can count on as an anchor in their bullpen. They've got much work to do with this unit, but having a centerpiece of his caliber makes a big difference. He's been among the few bright spots in a disastrous relief corps, but not the only one: Tyler Duffey's recent improvement and Luke Farrell's impressive early work are also encouraging developments.
#3. Josh Donaldson Is an Iron Man Again
I'm not sure Donaldson's season can be viewed as any kind of glowing positive in the grand scheme, but the fact he's been able to stay on the field as a regular fixture is huge, and frankly seemed unfathomable two months ago.
JD's first season with the Twins was ruined by a reemergence of his calf issues, framing his health as a primary question mark during the ensuing offseason, and he lasted all of one plate appearance before going down this year. With the Twins still on the hook for $21 million annually for three more seasons, Donaldson was quickly beginning to look like a constrictive burden in their roster construction efforts going forward.
The third baseman ended up missing only 10 games following the mild hamstring strain in Game 1. Since returning on April 14th he's played in 45 of a possible 47 games, starting 43 of them. Even with the missed time, Donaldson ranks third on the team in plate appearances. Since coming off IL, he leads all Twins in both PAs and games played.
His performance may leave something to be desired and he runs like he's dragging an anvil, but at 35, Donaldson is showing he can hold up as an everyday player and he's still clobbering the ball even if the results haven't been there. The outlook here has improved drastically. This team was going to be in serious trouble if things continued to devolve.
#4. Rookies Are Ready for the Challenge
In a season where so much has gone wrong, it would only make sense for rookies to come up and look totally overwhelmed. I mean, when even the established veterans are looking lost, how are young kids supposed to find their way? 
Instead, while there have been exceptions, most of the newcomers on this roster have risen to the occasion. I talked in the latest Week in Review column about the impressive early showings from pitcher Bailey Ober and infielder Nick Gordon. Alex Kirilloff has hit the ground running, although his balky wrist currently appears to be sapping all his power. Trevor Larnach looks like a seasoned vet in the batter's box. 
These guys could all play fairly significant roles on a competing Twins team in 2022. Regardless of how they supplement from outside, there's no doubt that Minnesota's return to contention will need to be fueled internally to a large degree. The young wave is mostly inspiring confidence right now.
#5. Mitch Garver Is Elite Offensively Again
Garver went through an awful ordeal in Baltimore last week, and he'll probably be sidelined for a while. But, so long as he doesn't choose to quit baseball (I'd consider it), there's plenty of reason to be excited for his return. 
In the month prior to his tremendously unfortunate mishap behind the plate, Garver wasn't just hitting well – he was dominating like few other hitters in the league. From May 2nd to June 1st he slashed .286/.444/.589 with four homers, five doubles, and a 17-to-16 K/BB ratio. His OPS during that span ranked third among all AL hitters and his .440 wOBA was almost 60 points higher than the next-best MLB catcher (Yasmani Grandal of the White Sox).
In the aftermath of a hideous slump that lasted throughout 2020 and carried over into the first month of 2021, this awakening from Garver has been reinvigorating. He's not just getting lucky and running into meatballs – he has fundamentally transformed his offensive game and turned back into the selective, smart, fastball-crushing force that earned a Silver Slugger award in 2019.
Garver was playing at an MVP-caliber level in the month before he went down, just as he did throughout the balance of 2019. If he can come back and sustain anywhere near that level, he'll be an enormous difference-maker, and he's controllable through the next two seasons.
Feeling Better?
I know I am. This team has a whole host of troubles right now but they're not rotting away at the core. In addition to the names mentioned above, they figure to get back their top two starters (José Berríos and Kenta Maeda) and their best player (Byron Buxton), although in two of those cases it could be the last ride here. Now, those guys have their own set of question marks – can Maeda get healthy and shake off his uncharacteristic early-season struggles, and can Buxton ever stay on the field for two weeks consecutively – but it'd be silly to give up on this team and blow it up. 
Here's hoping the rest of the season gives us more silver linings to build on. As we learned not too long ago when a 78-win also-ran in 2018 blossomed into a 101-win world-beater in 2019 – not to mention the vice-versa scenario this year – the tides can turn quickly.
 
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It's clear that something hasn’t been right for Maeda throughout this season and a trip to the IL can give him time to get his body right. One of the biggest issues has been how much batters have found success against his fastball. During the 2020 season, batters hit .086 with a .114 slugging percentage when facing Maeda's fastball. This year batters have a .357 batting average with a .786 slugging percentage, his highest total on any pitch.
From his pitch location chart, it’s easy to see why Maeda is being hit harder on his fastball. He is leaving it over the heart of the plate where last year he was able to use the pitcher lower in the zone. This has resulted in him ranking in the 19th percentile or lower in hard hit %, max exit velocity, xBA, and xSLG.  Maeda has such a good mix of pitches, but he needs to find more success with his fastball. 

That success is largely tied to his breaking pitches, especially since he only throws his fastball less than 22% of the time. After joining the Twins last year, his slider usage increased by over 7% and now this year he has increased that to a 10% jump over his final season in Los Angeles. Batters have been squaring up his slider more often as well as they have posted a .297 BA and a .527 SLG in 74 at-bats.
His slider is likely been getting hit harder because of the change in movement he has gotten this year. Last year, his slider had 33.9 inches of vertical drop and 4.7 inches of horizontal movement. So far in 2021, he is getting similar horizontal movement, but his vertical drop has increased to 35.7 inches. This means the pitch is ending up out of the zone more often and it is easier for batters to lay off.

Maeda can improve in multiple areas, but much of it is tied back to his pitch control and location. Last year, he seemed to have pinpoint control of all his pitches, and this made him nearly unhittable. He led all of baseball with a 0.75 WHIP during the 2020 campaign and that number has jumped to 1.48 in 2021. Improvements to these areas will allow him to pitch longer into games and he will allow fewer hits.
There might not be any way for Maeda to get back to the level he pitched at in 2020. Minnesota needs Maeda to be more of a force in the rotation if they plan on getting back to a .500 record. He hasn’t been the team’s lone problem, but he needs to be part of the team’s solution.
Do you think Maeda can solve his control problems? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.
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