First Place, Feeling Great: 4 Twins Observations at the Quarter Pole

1 hour ago, LastOnePicked said:

I'm not going to boo you, I'm just going to point to the calendar. And to their playoff record. And to a list of trades and free agent signings that were terrible. If the teams they put together could even just take a game from the likes of the Astros, Dodgers or Yankees, I might let this unbridled optimism pass. But it's May, and they haven't beat a single big dog yet.

We'll see. my friend.

It's a fair argument against the FO on free agent signings: the track record hasn't been great until this year, highly dependent on the elite Nelson Cruz signing. (which they followed up by trading him at a perfect time and for an excellent yield) The pitching signings before this season haven't been great. Of course, if you factor in this year's work, it's going to look better: Correa, Smith, Archer are all looking like good moves (and Bundy isn't looking terrible)

On trades the record is looking a bit better, and again this year's work is looking pretty good (Garver has struggled and isn't catching, Sanchez has been good, Rortvedt isn't playing, Urshela has been solid, and Donaldson is still an ass; Sonny Gray looks like a fine acquisition if we can keep him healthy) and the Nelson Cuz trade for Joe Ryan is looking incredible. YMMV on the Berrios deal: Martin still isn't showing much pop, but SWR looks awfully good, so that one could look pretty decent too. Rogers for Paddack could be a miss, but if Paddack comes back strong, I liked the way he was pitching. That said, having Rogers on this team with where they are now, would be great.

I'm not going to anoint the FO with great laurels this early, but they had a vision for the season and a strategy for it and so far it's working like they said it was going to. I do think they deserve some credit for sticking to their guns and having it show out so far.

"Obviously things have gone better than expected."

This is exactly what we're expected LAST year with Berries, Maeda, and Pineda at the top of the rotation. Right now it's Ryan and whoever isn't on the IL. Starting pitching health and the stamina of the ones that are healthy are still a huge concern to me. 

Let's start this tonight. Chris Archer, can you PLEASE give me 5 innings?

7 hours ago, Harrison Greeley III said:

I think a big contributor to their success is the ball and the Twins adjusting to it relatively better than many teams. After their slow start, I'm seeing a focus on driving the ball to the opposite field gap on outer half pitches instead of home run swings to pull the ball. Examples being Miranda busting the game open on Saturday and Gary Sanchez already having as many opposite field doubles as he had last year (and he had only 1 in 2019).

The ball is dying on the warning track and home runs are down 33% leaguewide. Despite being 10th in slugging at .394 and 12th in HR at 41, the Twins are 5th in wRC+ at 114. That being said, Houston outdid them on this when they came to Minnesota. We'll see how teams adjust for the remainder of the season. 

The other way the ball is suiting the team is that in the past Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan have had good outings with one or two home runs that seemed all but inevitable. The hope was no one would be on base when they happened. Those home runs are dying. Joe Ryan is sporting a 0.62 HR/9, down from 1.69 in 2021. Ober is 0.73 thus far, down from 1.95 in 2021. We'll see what happens as the weather warms. 

I love this ball.  It invites a more complex version of baseball that is much more entertaining.

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

1. I don't know how anyone can argue Baldelli is mismanaging the 'pen.  The bullpen has been phenomenal, the Twins are all but undefeated once they have a lead, and he's getting production from a near constant shuttle from AAA.  Honestly, I don't know what successful looks like if it ain't this.

2. I said it at the time: the deals with the Rangers and Yankees were about creating flexibility and looking for upside.  Garver has really struggled, Rotervdt looks like damaged goods, and Donaldson is a DH a third of the time.  It's possible they knew his future was there and that Buxton's health would require more use of that spot.  They also bet on helping Sanchez improve behind the plate, that Urshela would be a leader and a defensive stud, and that the money freed could land them something spicy.  All of those things are happening and the team is so much better for it.  A similar move with Rogers/Paddock didn't work out in the near-term, but it was the same kind of thinking: don't let the past have too much influence over the future.  Swing for upside.

3. The young players are really developing.  They've missed on some bats it looks like, but man do we seem to have the development pipeline humming right now.

Frankly, and I know I'll have boos chucked at me for this, but it's time to start thinking about extending this FO.  They're doing what they came here to do.

Lets win a play off game, let alone a series before we throw extensions around. You dont get to hang banners for regular season Ws. 

26 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

I'm not going to anoint the FO with great laurels this early, but they had a vision for the season and a strategy for it and so far it's working like they said it was going to. I do think they deserve some credit for sticking to their guns and having it show out so far.

I agree with this completely, and I give them that credit. We are again a contender for the AL Central. That's not nothing, I agree.

But there's more to prove. This isn't a "what have you done for me lately" - it's putting the bar in an appropriate spot. If they field a team that wins a WC spot or the Central, sure, lean towards an extension. If their team wins a playoff game, lean very heavily that way. If they win the AL, give them the keys to the city. If they win the World Series, rename the state Falvine.

So much to like this season so far, and a lot of comments to like as well. But I also have a few points that I like as well.

1] So VERY pleased by the team defense! No doubt Correa is part of that. But Polanco looks great, Urshela, despite his bat starting slow, has done a great job defensively, Larnach has been OK and showed the arm I've heard about, etc, etc. The defense has been great, and the bench has contributed so much. (And Arraez has been great at 1B). That doesn't just help the pitching staff. It helps the offense as well, they get off the field, they're pumped up, and they face less pressure when the other team scores less.

2] With offense down all across MLB, the Twins are producing, despite their own numbers being suppressed. And I echo surprise and optimism for Kepler and others suddenly spraying the ball around and LH bats going to LF so much more. Is Popkins an early coaching MVP? This team could really use Larnach back the way he was before his injury. Despite Arraez's great play at 1B, we could still use Kirolloff producing like he's capable of. Hopefully that happens still in 2022. Jeffers and Urshela heat up a little more, Miranda gets himself right...and not even talking right now about Lewis' potential contributions in the future...how much better could the offense still be?

3] Ryan and Ober are continuing what we saw of them last year. Gray is great as long as he remains healthy. Winder has looked great, despite a couple of hiccups, and should/could be valuable the 2nd half plus as part of the rotation. (He's ready. But he's a rookie so you have to expect a couple hiccups). I am not disappointed by Bundy. He can be solid. But I want to see more. Archer is healthy and throwing pretty hard and throwing some nasty stuff at times. But he's obviously not all the way back yet. He's suffering from sudden losses of control. He could be huge by July if his control/confidence/endurance kicks in and he's ready for 5+ by then. Losing Padeack hurts, and not going to re-visit the trade at this point, but the rotation has been SOLID. And it appears there is more on the way.

4] The pen has been surprisingly good, with a few bad days, but those days will happen. Duran looks like a stud, and despite walking a tightrope at times, Pagan has gotten the job done. Boy, he gets back closer to his normal BB%, and his new splitter keeps working, we could have a solid, reliable late inning arm. Glad to see Duffey and Thielbar get it together. Smith has been outstanding. I've been excited by Jax's transition and remain hopeful. It seems almost everyone who's gotten a shot has contributed so far.

5] It really feels like this team LIKES who they all are. They seem to be having fun and have believe in themselves. Much like 2019-2020, they seem to have confidence in themselves. 

I'm excited for this team. I love the way they are playing 1/4 of the way done. I'm all the more excited because there is still room for improvement yet. There will be some bad days and bad series to be sure. It's baseball and a hell of a long season. But this is a good team with talent, depth, opportunity to improve, and talent on the way. I'm not sure I'm yet ready to predict a record at this point, but I don't think 90 wins is crazy.

I DO think Archer and Winder need to step up or we may need to look at a trade option.

I DO think we are really missing the potential of Alcala in the pen and may have to look at a quality addition before all is said and done. 

But I do really like most of this team and it's potential. I love the mix of youth and experience. This is what the FO wanted/hoped for in 2021. It's starting to happen a year late. This team is "competitive" with potential for this year and beyond. From the lost 2020 year, and so many injuries at both the ML and milb level, it's just happening a year later than hoped/expected. 

17 hours ago, SwainZag said:

What's the big list of trades the current FO has made that are terrible?  I get it if you don't like the Berrios trade, but flipping back through they didn't seem to miss badly on many trades, at least as of yet.

It sure seems like only the bad is remembered or acknowledged.  Berrios has a 4.75 ERA.  Every pitcher we have, with the exception of Bundy has been better.   The free agent everyone insisted we had to have was Robbie Ray.  His ERA is 4.77. Then, when Stroman was signed for only 3 years the theme was why not here.  His ERA is 4.88.  

Most contributors here did not think Garlic should be on the roster,  Some insisted Sanchez was horrible and he has looked great in May  His wRC+ for the month is 132 and climbing.  He certainly has not be the downgrade at Catcher some insisted he would be.  Many hated the Pressly trade but Celestino and Alcala for 6 years is looking more valuable than Pressly for a couple months of a lost season and in which we won 100 games.   The Ryan trade was an absolute fleecing.  What an incredible boost to the team for a rental.  Duran was also acquired for a rental.  How many people did not believe in Ober?  How many people did not believe in the pitching pipeline at all?  How many people wanted to trade Royce Lewis?  Granted, many were firmly against but plenty were all for moving him for pitching.

It will take a lot to go right to have an Astros type run.  We may not dominate but this team is very well positioned for an extended run of very good teams.  Extending Buxton, deadline deals and pitchers drafted outside the top rounds are the reason.  Losing Berrios does not look like it made a difference.  Spending the money the would have spent on him wisely is actually another opportunity to help build a contender just as getting rid of Donaldson salary provides an opportunity.

15 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I love this ball.  It invites a more complex version of baseball that is much more entertaining.

 

I think I net-like it overall for that reason. You definitely have to string hits together. And also, lead off walks are huge (see the 9th inning on 5/22 and 5/23).

But with strikeouts not coming down (yet, at least), the advantage pitchers have is a bit excessive. My stance on the shift ban issue went from neutral to solidly in favor assuming this ball is here to stay. If the strikeout rates remain high, hitters need a little help with the balls that are hit in play. 

Polanco is our cleanup hitter and rbi leader. Who had that on their bingo card.

The bullpen is a mess. The Twins have survived because of so many arms coming and going. It's nice most can pitch multiple innings, and I almost fell out of the couch when Rocco removed Joe Smith last nite after three straight hits insteda of having him work out of the inning.

With the addition of hitting to contact and possible small ball, maybe we are going to see more stolen bases in the next quarter.

Am most happy that the Twins have a decent bench to cycle thru the DH spot. We will still be wondering "where to play" Arraez if and when Kirilloff comes back.

The joy after 40 games is that Ober and Ryan (and in many cases WInder and Smeltzer) have gas left in their arms going into the next part of the season. And we really haven't used Bundy, Archer and Gray to their full potential.

Now the question is the status of Sands and Balazovic as immediate roster helpers if the time comes, are Henriquez and Strotman the next to be expendable if a 40-man roster spot is needed (bye-bye Vallimont). We know a few minor league free agents will soon get walking papers once the draft happens. A lot of fine potential arms that need to move up to AA and AAA come July.

Curious to see where Jordan Gore and Ian Hamilton work into the Twins picture. Seems Juan Minaya is on the outside looking in. And Yennier Cano might be one of those hot throwers from AAA ball that will journey about in the majors and minors for years to come (Curtiss, Charhgois, Hildenberger, Slama, Oliveros amongst others).